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2015 Kentucky Derby

I can't remember the last time I really liked the favorite in the derby, but this year is different. Even with the unfavorable outside post position, I think American Pharoah is much the best in this field.

Dortmund and Frosted will battle it out for place and show. Itsaknockout and Keen Ice are my "throw two bucks on 'em" longshots.



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I agree that favorites aren't usually the play in the Derby. I like going with a horse trained by a big name. Materiality from the #3 spot, followed by Dortmund and American Pharoah
 
American Pharaoh is the real deal. Watch his last race. A pure hand ride, no whip. I normally never bet the favorite but with a decent ride in a big field he wins easily. He is the best horse running right now of any age. The only way he loses is because there is 19 other horses of lesser qualities get in his way.
I'm on a little Derby role of late. Having picked the 5 of the last 6 winners.

https://video.search.yahoo.com/vide...ge=1428947896&fr2=p:s,v:v&fr=yfp-t-901-s&tt=b
 
I am a lifelong Rutgers fan... Hence I hate favorites. .I only bet the Triple Crown races anymore after a life of handicapping debauchery. .At 6;10 PM or so I will ticket up some doggies but will go against my grain and find a home for Dortmund or Pharaoh in one of my boxes as well.. .Gary Stevens? Cal Borel ? Hmmmmmm?
 
I like Dortmund here. He is a big impressive horse, unbeaten and won his last race for fun. Going to be interesting to see the two Baffert horses to do battle. I think the post gives the advantage here to Dortmund over Pharoah
 
1 Tri box=$60.00 Dortmund American Pharoah Frosted ( International StarSCR ) Firing Line Keen Ice

This could end up being just being a $150 trifecta but tradition goes with larger ones.

Well I just saw International Star was scratched so this could really upset the apple cart. Oh well.... I'll just replace him with Keen Ice as I don't want to redo the handicapping again.
 
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For those looking for an upset take a look at Upstart. My buddy who handicaps daily likes him a lot. I'm heading over to the Simulcast soon to make my wagers.
 
Track playing honest. Going with Frosted, can run close up or close and from post 12, should avoid trouble. 107 Beyer in Wood looks good. Future bet a 16-1. Now 9-1.
 
American Pharoah is way outside something like post 17, also the Derby favorites don't usually win. I always like making a small play on Calvin Borrel when he has a long shot, but don't see him listed in the race. American Pharoah and Dortmund heavy favorites , so for a longish shot I'll take Carpe Diem to make a little money. I like the reference to the Robin Williams move (Dead Poets Society, lol)

Will be watching it from the outdoor Beer Garden at Egans in West Orange. They make a very good Mint Julep
 
I loaded up on Gary Stevens with the 10. He was right there but you could see the horse getting distracted by Pharoah in the stretch.. I had them in a box . My friend had the tri and she won a few bucks.. 3 years in a row a favorite wins the first leg..
 
The interesting aspect of the race was the first 3 finishers dominated start to finish with no closer making a meaningful run.
 
I know someone who owned a share of a former Derby winner. The money the win is worth aside from the purse is crazy. Back then it was estimated at something north of $40 million. I don't know enough to say where it comes other than possible stud fees but that's what I was told.
 
I know someone who owned a share of a former Derby winner. The money the win is worth aside from the purse is crazy. Back then it was estimated at something north of $40 million. I don't know enough to say where it comes other than possible stud fees but that's what I was told.
The Derby victory if the horse has great breeding is worth 10s of millions. A Belmont win means nothing in stud fees. American horses never run 1 1/2 miles for big money.
 
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