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Just some useful numbers and thoughts

higgins3

All American
Dec 15, 2012
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Free throws.

Right now we're looking at Daniels shooting .718 from the line. Should improve to .730 or so.
Mike Williams shooting .778 from the line. He should improve to .800+.
Lewis shooting .641 from line. Lewis should imrpove to .660 this year.
Freeman shot .653 from line. freeman shuld improve to .665.
Justin Goode in hs shot .930 from the line. Should be good in clutch game situations.

I am uncertain what to expect from Justin Goode. He shot 51% from the 3pt line in HS. Still, his hs conference wasn't that competitive. Similar to a Jake Dadika prospect, but has more size. Not sure what to expect there.

Still, Lewis/Freeman shoot better than KJ and Malick Kone from line. This should help us late in games.
I am confident Mike Williams will eventually shoot free throws from a similar percentage as Myles Mack.

It is nice to have these kids who can still be in the game late and be able to knock down some clutch free throws.
 
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Big leap to think all the guys will improve. I like to think they will too, but not guaranteed.

Myles Mack didn't improve every year.
 
Is there some sort of universal stat out there that the average improvement in free throws year to year is 1.2%, whether you're starting from .778 or .653? And why would Lewis improve 1.9%?
 
So, completely unscientifically, I took a look back at our FT% history.

Going back to the 1999-2000 season, I looked at guys who played for multiple years, and looked at the seasons where they attempted at least 30 FTs over the course of the season. 12 players shot at least 30 FTs for 4 consecutive years, 10 more did so for 3 years, and 13 more did so for just 2 years.

I then looked at their year over year improvement. That's 69 year-to-year changes (that is, Player A from Year 1 to Year 2, Player A from Year 2 to Year 3, etc).

Of those 69 year-to-year changes among players who routinely shot 30 shots or more, only 39 saw improvement in the subsequent year. So, there was FT% improvement just 56% of the time.

There were some big leaps (Eli Carter went from .696 to .864 from his freshman to sophomore year) and some big drops (Jaron Griffin went from .778 as a freshman to .660 as a sophomore).... and sometimes both with the same player (Austin Johnson went from .652, to .500, to .681, to .550). Really wasn't much rhyme or reason to it.
 
So, completely unscientifically, I took a look back at our FT% history.

Going back to the 1999-2000 season, I looked at guys who played for multiple years, and looked at the seasons where they attempted at least 30 FTs over the course of the season. 12 players shot at least 30 FTs for 4 consecutive years, 10 more did so for 3 years, and 13 more did so for just 2 years.

I then looked at their year over year improvement. That's 69 year-to-year changes (that is, Player A from Year 1 to Year 2, Player A from Year 2 to Year 3, etc).

Of those 69 year-to-year changes among players who routinely shot 30 shots or more, only 39 saw improvement in the subsequent year. So, there was FT% improvement just 56% of the time.

There were some big leaps (Eli Carter went from .696 to .864 from his freshman to sophomore year) and some big drops (Jaron Griffin went from .778 as a freshman to .660 as a sophomore).... and sometimes both with the same player (Austin Johnson went from .652, to .500, to .681, to .550). Really wasn't much rhyme or reason to it.

Good point. I guess I am assuming players improve, which isn't realistic. Nonetheless, some of these kids have the character that make me think they will jump. For instance, Mike Williams and Greg Lewis both expect things of themselves. I think well see their numbers improve.
 
Lewis is listed on a roster at the JSBL .
Td, interesting. I didn't think EJ would be a fan of people playing there.

Nonetheless, seems like Lewis has dropped weight. I'd be interested in going down and seeing if he is transitioning to the 4 spot.
 
If Mike Williams goes to the line the same amount of time improving his FT% by 2.7% means he made 1 extra FT for the entire year. Lewis making 1 extra FT improves 1.2%.

Rutgers has a getting to the free throw line problem. Hopefully Sanders can help us improve.
 
If Mike Williams goes to the line the same amount of time improving his FT% by 2.7% means he made 1 extra FT for the entire year. Lewis making 1 extra FT improves 1.2%.

Rutgers has a getting to the free throw line problem. Hopefully Sanders can help us improve.

No doubt. Supposedly Goode shot 91% in hs. I don't know how he pans out at this level. What do you think?
 
If Mike Williams goes to the line the same amount of time improving his FT% by 2.7% means he made 1 extra FT for the entire year. Lewis making 1 extra FT improves 1.2%.

Rutgers has a getting to the free throw line problem. Hopefully Sanders can help us improve.

Agree - we have a "getting to the FT line problem". We need to get the other team in foul trouble (can't just settle for jump shots) as much as we need to capitalize at the line.
 
No doubt. Supposedly Goode shot 91% in hs. I don't know how he pans out at this level. What do you think?

Can he defend, does he have a handle, does he make the extra pass? If so, and he can shoot we have a player. Right now all players are fictional characters until I see them in uniform on court.
 
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Can he defend, does he have a handle, does he make the extra pass? If so, and he can shoot we have a player. Right now all players are fictional characters until I see them in uniform on court.

In hs, it was said he was a high IQ player that is a willing passer.

What I don't know how to judge is how much of an impact he will have given his competition in HS. Kind of like a Jake Dadika, who shot the ball very well in HS and scored a ton. Not a high level conference,though.

Goode shot 91 percent from ft and 51 percent from behind the arc in HS. How he can match up against D1, Big competition is what I am curious about, I also wonder who backs up Sanders at point?I think it's either Goode or Williams.

One thing about Ej-first thing he changed when he came was putting MM at point. MM would never succeed in the NBA because of his height. Mike Williams is probably about 6 0. Listed at 6 2, but that's false. I wonder what EJ does there.
 
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