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OT: Minor Snowfall for Most (except moderate N of 80 towards 84 w/some icing) Sat (2/15) pm, Followed by Heavy Rain for Everyone
- By RU848789
- Rutgers Football
- 59 Replies
No noticeable changes in the NWS-Philly snowfall map, but the NWS-NYC cut back a bit on snowfall for NYC/LI and NENJ from Union to Bergen. Not really sure why they cut back a little bit as the models at 12Z and recently 18Z don't seem much different. I will say that my confidence continues to be low in the forecast of snow for my area of ~2" and I'm going to only predict 1.4" for my house tomorrow before the changeover.
Given the low likelihood of accumulation on paved surfaces south of 78 due to borderline temps (33-34F likely during the afternoon/early evening before rising further with the changeover to rain), to me this is still pretty much a non-event south of 78, except maybe west of Clinton where it'll be slightly cooler. Areas along/N of 78 and especially N of 80 to 84 (and NW of 287) in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY will have a more difficult time with snow on roads with temps below 32F (and some freezing rain, especially in far NWNJ/Poconos) until mid/late evening when the changeover to rain starts N of 78 and eventually N of 80 by early Sunday.
No change in the NWS-Philly snowfall map other than reducing snowfall along/south of 276/195 to <1" (was in the 1"+ range), but the NWS-NYC bumped snowfall amounts for NENJ (Union up to Bergen) and NYC/LI back up to a general 1-3", similar to most of CNJ, so the map looks more consistent across offices. Still think this is overdone for areas south of 78, where I doubt we'll see much if any accumulation on paved surfaces with temps in the 33-34F range; north of 78 could see some snow on the roads. Also, no change in the advisories which are basically for 1-3" of snow plus up to 0.1" of freezing rain for the counties along 78 and for the far NW suburbs of Philly; the advisories are for 2-4" (plus up to 1/4" of freezing rain) for the counties along/N of 80 in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY.
Precip has started for EPA and is just starting in NJ (mostly snow, but some rain too until the column cools a bit, at least N of 276/195). Still looking like a changeover to rain by 7-9 pm south of 78 and by midnight from 78 to 80, with some freezing rain (up to 0.1) possible in the higher elevations between 78 and 80. North of 80/NW of 287 in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY is where we could see 2-4" of snow and up to 1/3" of ice as per the ice map; will even change to rain there sometime in the wee hours. After the changeover, most places should get 1-1.5" of rain (except well NW where more frozen falls).
https://www.weather.gov/phi
