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Hot stretch has revived Rutgers' NCAA Tournament hopes, but Scarlet Knights need more to erase ugly losses

Its rather late in the season to expect a long winning streak especially with so many games on the road.
This is untrue.

A few weeks ago I posted about winning streaks ... having trouble finding the post. But it was in a thread about NC State and their run last season to win the ACC championship last season to make the NCAA - then their run in the NCAA to the Final Four.

In that post I listed all the JUST BIG TEN teams in recent years that had late season surprising winning streaks. There were several: Northwestern Penn State, Maryland ... maybe Iowa one year ... all had late-season winning streaks that carried them form not even ON the bubble to an at large bid. I do not have time this moment to recreate that analysis - may get to it later today. My POINT is that several Big 10 teams with double digit losses late in the season cl0sed the season with 5-6 game winning streaks, and/or 7 of 9 wins, to get them onto the bubble, and then invited as an at-large.

Though I think it will be difficult, it is POSSIBLE. And I still think the odds are RU is out unless they win the Big 10 tourney ... of course finishing 9th or better in the conference (which is still possible, even with a 4-4 finish) helps that since it means 1 less game RU would have to win to win the Big 10 tourney.
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Post Mortem by Lion - RU vs #23 Illinois

1. You are miscategorizing the way i think and i admit to being wrong
2. Sorry, but unless we make the NCAAs was i not right?
Re: 1 - your MO is well established on this board. If you conceded some things on this thread it would be out of character for you (atleast as far your on-board behavior) and perhaps due to fact that’s lions analysis was so well thought out that you’d look foolish to refute it?

Re:2 - no you’re not right

If we don’t make the NCAAs it would not because we have Ace and Dylan it would largely be due to: (1) not getting good enough players to support them; (2) Dylan’s health and injury issues (3) the team not playing good d and rebounding early in the season (causing 2 very bad WTF losses)

In fact the ONLY reason we still have slight hopes for the NCAA is because: (1) Ace (as a young frosh) has found his game and is playing like a future NBA star and (2) Dylan is back, seemingly healthy, and also playing like a future NBA star.

Those two aren’t the reason our chances are slim - quite the opposite - they are , by far, the MAIN reasons we still have a chance (along with additional reasons like improved play by the “others” and improved d and rebounding).

But those additional reasons are minor - without Ace and Dylan playing like future NBA stars we have ZERO chance of making the tourney.

If we have ANY chance it is because of them

OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Brought back some MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, BDX,UNH the last two days after their fall. Hope the market fall further so I can buy more. Also started buying ET, O, EPD, VZ, and PFE for dividend exposure.
I sold MSFT last week. Got impatient after it basically did nothing in my portfolio over the past year. Not sure I see many catalysts for it unless I’m missing something with co-pilot and the fact that AI laptops have gone nowhere. Also losing a bit of confidence in GOOG although I’ve held it for 10 years and they always seem to figure it out. I’d like to buy Amazon and more Netflix on dips. My guess is Trump has been rather quiet the past week or two so he’s due for rattling some cages which will spook the market.

What makes a coach like Rick Pitino able to take a school, in just two years, high into the D1 rankings: opinions please?

If he never did anything else but taking a true Cinderella team in Providence to the 1987
Final Four, he'd still be one of the greats
Weren’t they a six seed and they beat lower seeds until an upset of Georgetown in the regional finals who they had lost to twice previously? Obviously a very good team not really a Cinderella run unless I am missing something.

THE OFFICIAL 2024-2025 NET RANKINGS THREAD

I’m not sure what game you were watching exactly to say J Will was “bad” on D in the first half. We went up 23-6 with J Will logging most if not all of the minutes in the first 10 minutes. I’m not sure how you could argue Acuff would’ve been a better choice.

At the 7:51 mark, Illinois had 11 total points. Again - J Will had played most of that time. Yes, he commits a dumb foul after a turnover at the 6:38 mark and pick up his second foul but at that point following the FTs, Illinois still only had 15 points.

J Will sat the remainder of the half with the 2 fouls. Acuff got a turn in there by the way. Illinois nearly doubled their points finishing with 29 at the half. What am I missing?

And to your other point - J Will isn’t a high usage type of player at all. He’s not a great shooter and he’s comfortable playing while not being the one to attempt that many shots. In 25 minutes he recorded 7 shots - made 3 of them and scored 13 points on fairly low usage. If anyone took too many shots it was Dylan Grant.
Sorry to circle back to thjs, but rewatching first half. You're first paragraph here. JWill plays four minutes and is taken out at 6-2. He returns to the game five minutes later and the lead has gone to 19-6. He missed most of big run. Minute later he scores on one end then comes down and gets beat on a cut, but an off ball foul saves him. Then he commits the foul on the three after the lead hits 23-6. He was playing D w active hands, but Jac has missed two open 3's w JWill in front of him. Commits the 10 sec turnover, although I'm not sure that was ten, then sends Jac to the foul line with his foul.

I don't think he was as bad as I originally thought, but really wasn't a big reason for the lead.

Post Mortem by Lion - RU vs #23 Illinois

You’re being exceedingly fair ;)

My experience with him - he has a position (in this case RU would do better by not having having generational talent on this team… crazy I know): Every comment he makes is to support that position and any comment/ analysis that contradicts that gets ignored nor twisted.

Maybe in this case your commentary is so convincing/ well thought out that he had to concede on a few things (as you said above) - if so, kudos to you
1. You are miscategorizing the way i think and i admit to being wrong
2. Sorry, but unless we make the NCAAs was i not right?
3. Yes, i am more hard on our best players when it comes to defending

OT: Minor to Moderate Snow/Mix Likely Sat Evening (2/8) through Sun am

FWIW, below is the NWS hourly forecast for Philly. It has about 1/2" of low ratio snow (maybe 6-7:1), followed by about 1" of sleet (as most of the "snow" in that graphic is sleet; that's 3" of snow equivalent and about 0.3" of liquid equivalent) and then about 0.1" of freezing rain with almost no plain rain (just the 0.02" at the end). What you'll have on the ground at the end if this verifies is about 1-1.5" of depth containging about 0.5" of liquid in frozen/slushy form. A mess and a definite concern, especially the freezing rain.

GaVqBCY.png
It's hard to follow 3 major stations on Saturday so on the weekends I only watch CBS 3 and 6ABC. Both had Philly in the coating to 1 inch map area but not far from the 1-3 NW of here.
Inside of the 12 hour start time so I doubt any major changes but it's still unsettled. I think everyone's accuracy on the timing of the start will dictate who will have the best forecast now.
Anyway. It's cloudy with sun breaking through. (yes just temporary). Almost zero wind so it sounds like a bike ride in a few hours. Some miles, hills and over the Ben Franklin Bridge to visit the Battleship NJ, it been a while.

Post Mortem by Lion - RU vs #23 Illinois

I like debating with Greene, frankly. He makes me think. And that makes me do these sorts of analyses (because I also cannot let go - my own neurosis, I suppose).

He HAS conceded some of my points as we discuss. And I concede some of his points, often ... though it is true we do look through the game and play with different lenses ... he is way more focused on these advanced stats, for example (which I am not - I go a lot by the eye test - MY EYE, of course, LOL!) - and though I should not speak for him, I believe at least sometimes he looks at the individual players and team play through that lens, which influences his opinions and comments. We all have different lens which influence how we look at things.

His latest comment in this thread was not based on the advanced stats, though. I interpreted it as him looking at the game and seeing Bailey's positioning, and drawing his conclusions from that. I disagreed with his view that Bailey's positioning meant Bailey was OUT OF POSITION. I do agree that from his positioning it can LOOK like Bailey ahs "lost" his man. But I see it differently than Greene and believe based on what I observed over the entire game (and the several games prior as well - where his positioning has been very similar) that it was purposeful, designed as part of the overall defensive scheme Pikiell and the staff have put into place, that is finally beginning to work the way Pikiell wants it to.

Of course, I concede I could be totally wrong ... its just my opinion. But I've been watching basketball for many decades, and pay a lot of attention to these types of schemes (and I am better at identifying defensive schemes than offensive schemes - not sure why - maybe because as a player I was and remain very offensively challenged but very, very defensive oriented ... in football I am better at identifying offensive schemes and blocking schemes than defensive schemes in my analysis ... go figure).

You’re being exceedingly fair ;)

My experience with him - he has a position (in this case RU would do better by not having having generational talent on this team… crazy I know): Every comment he makes is to support that position and any comment/ analysis that contradicts that gets ignored nor twisted.

Maybe in this case your commentary is so convincing/ well thought out that he had to concede on a few things (as you said above) - if so, kudos to you

Post Mortem by Lion - RU vs #23 Illinois

You are absolutely wasting your time.

You re-watched an entire game and OBJECTIVELY observed Aces D and provided a detailed objective critique of his defense. Unfortunately when it come to Greene you’re talking to a wall.

Greene will never concede his position . It’s his MO

He takes a position and sees EVERYTHING through that lense. ANYTHING to the contrary is either ignored or twisted.
I like debating with Greene, frankly. He makes me think. And that makes me do these sorts of analyses (because I also cannot let go - my own neurosis, I suppose).

He HAS conceded some of my points as we discuss. And I concede some of his points, often ... though it is true we do look through the game and play with different lenses ... he is way more focused on these advanced stats, for example (which I am not - I go a lot by the eye test - MY EYE, of course, LOL!) - and though I should not speak for him, I believe at least sometimes he looks at the individual players and team play through that lens, which influences his opinions and comments. We all have different lens which influence how we look at things.

His latest comment in this thread was not based on the advanced stats, though. I interpreted it as him looking at the game and seeing Bailey's positioning, and drawing his conclusions from that. I disagreed with his view that Bailey's positioning meant Bailey was OUT OF POSITION. I do agree that from his positioning it can LOOK like Bailey ahs "lost" his man. But I see it differently than Greene and believe based on what I observed over the entire game (and the several games prior as well - where his positioning has been very similar) that it was purposeful, designed as part of the overall defensive scheme Pikiell and the staff have put into place, that is finally beginning to work the way Pikiell wants it to.

Of course, I concede I could be totally wrong ... its just my opinion. But I've been watching basketball for many decades, and pay a lot of attention to these types of schemes (and I am better at identifying defensive schemes than offensive schemes - not sure why - maybe because as a player I was and remain very offensively challenged but very, very defensive oriented ... in football I am better at identifying offensive schemes and blocking schemes than defensive schemes in my analysis ... go figure).

Pike 17 wins vs top 25

Yes you do.
Wrestling has beaten 28 Top 25 teams since the 2015-2016 season
They only wrestle 17 to 18 matches a year so yeah, a helluva lot more than 17.
This is not intended as a cut against wrestling (I love the sport and our team). But the comparison has to consider that there are only about 40 or so programs of merit. Many schools don’t even field wrestling programs. As a result of a smaller pool you are likely wrestling more ranked opponents (read that as opportunity) than other sports. Still kudos to our wrestling program.

Hot stretch has revived Rutgers' NCAA Tournament hopes, but Scarlet Knights need more to erase ugly losses

We don't have a favorable schedule, and have not shown any consistency all year. I'll enjoy the ride, but my mindset is that we are out - and have been for a long time. Anything is possible, but it seems after every win hope springs eternal. Odds are very much stacked against us - is a magic carpet ride possible? Sure. Is it probable? Absolutely not. 99% chance this team will not be able to outrun their past.

Agree fully.

But look on the bright side - the very difficult schedule is actually an opportunity

If we were in this same situation but had mostly home games against the bottom 3rd of the league there may not have been any opportunity to make up enough ground

But

The difficult schedule comprised of opportunities for Q1 wins and road wins…. there’s a road there to possibly make the tourney

And with Ace playing as he is now, with Dylan healthy, with the “others” playing better, with the defense and rebounding issues vastly improved….

There’s still a chance. However small
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