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OT: Minor to Moderate Snow/Mix Likely Sat Evening (2/8) through Sun am
- By RU848789
- Rutgers Football
- 223 Replies
NWS-NYC issued advisories for 3-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of freezing rain for Union/Essex/Hudson and SE Passaic/SE Bergen in NJ and all of NYC/LI, plus southern Westchester and they issued warnings for 5-7" of snow with maybe a glaze of ice for NW Passaic, NW Bergen and all of the NY/CT counties north of the Tappan Zee. The updated regional NWS map is below and clearly, the NWS-NYC and NWS-Philly offices are not in sync. Look at the bondary between Sussex and Orange, where it goes from 3-4" to 6-8 by magically crossing into NY; similarly NE Morris is at 2-3" and is up against 4-6" amounts in adjacent Essex/Passaic. I would think maybe the NWS-Philly might bump amounts back up to align them better (or vice versa, but the NWS-NYC just issued their info).
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York
(Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast
Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern
Nassau-
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 3
and 5 inches. A light glaze of ice is also possible.
National Weather Service New York NY
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern
New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern
Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
7 inches. A light glaze of ice is also possible.
The NWS did a little bit of alignment to eliminate the worst discontinuity, as the NWS-NYC put a strip of 4-6" in SW Orange up against NE Sussex's 3-4" swath, but they left SE Morris at 2-3" adjacent to W Essex/Union at 4-6". Whatever. Still think NWS-Philly is at least a bit underdone, as it would be very unusual for NYC/Union/Hudson/Essex to have 4-6", while Sussex/Morris/Warren all have 2-3"/3-4" - this only makes sense if the NWS-Philly counties get a fair amount more sleet or a fair amount less precip, both of which seem possible but unlikely. An updated ice map is also below as is a link to the NWS-Philly briefing.
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
Anyway, let's see where tonight's models go and then we'll see the actual storm tomorrow where we'll see how much of a front end thump of snow materializes starting in SWNJ/SEPA and if it progresses NE into CNJ/NYC without much sleet or if we see an early change to sleet. Those things will determine how much snow/sleet most get and it'll be a fine line, as the heaviest precip will be from about 6 pm to midnight for most, which is not a long duration event, so losing an hour of snow or keeping it during the height of the storm will make a significant difference. And then the next question becomes how much actual freezing rain do we see and where? Getting 0.1-0.2" of ice could make for very difficult walking/driving conditions on untreated surfaces.
