Week 2 and things starting to pare down and become less hazier.
Okay everyone grab a cup of java and come on in. Always want to hear suggestions and comments and looking forward to take questions during the day Wednesday. Note data is through Monday's game. Does not include Tuesday's results (except noted for St John's)
Note, the Ivy League is not competing this year. Bellarmine is not eligible for the NCAA tournament. Arizona is not eligible for the NCAA tournament. Merrimack is not eligible for the NCAA tournament.
There are several schools dealing with Covid and the impact of how the NCAA weighs that issue is unknown. It is a very unusual year. What we once knew about the selection process might not be the same this season
Bare or bear with any typos, if you see them or any major errors, point them out, it takes alot of time to produce this and quite frankly proofreading isn't my strength🙂
Let's start this by identifying the one bid conferences and the schools that are projected to receive an automatic bid. There are 21 conferences that I project as one bid leagues
VERMONT AmerEast
HOUSTON American
LIBERTY Atl Sun
EASTERN WASHINGTON Big Sky
WINTHROP Big South
CAL SANTA BARBARA Big West
JAMES MADISON CAA
WESTERN KENTUCKY CUSA
WRIGHT STATE Horizon
SIENA MAAC
TOLEDO MAC
NORTH CAROLINA A&T MEAC
WAGNER NEC
BELMONT OVC
COLGATE Patriot
NO CAROLINA GREENSBORO Southern
SAM HOUSTON STATE Southland
PRAIRIE VIEW SWAC
SO DAKOTA STATE Summit
TEXAS STATE Sun Belt
GRAND CANYON WAC
Here are who I think are locks and their projected seedings as of today. There are 10 multi bid conferences. There are 37 at large bids and I have locked in 14 at large bids. I made the locks all the way down to the 6 line with the last two 6 seeds still not a lock yet There are 23 at large bids available and at this time I have identified 31 schools competing for them.
1: GONZAGA (WCC), BAYLOR (BIG 12), OHIO STATE, MICHIGAN (BIG 10)
2: ILLINOIS, ALABAMA (SEC), VILLANOVA (BIG EAST), HOUSTON (AAC)
3: OKLAHOMA, WEST VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA (ACC), FLORIDA STATE
4: IOWA, TEXAS TECH, TENNESSEE, KANSAS
5: TEXAS, CREIGHTON, WISCONSIN, USC
6: MISSOURI, VIRGINIA TECH
Here is the pecking order.....
6 SEEDS
1. (27) PURDUE 14-8: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 6-0, road 3-6, SOS 19
Boilermakers took care of business over struggling Michigan State to inch closer to returning to the NCAA tournament. At this point it would take a historic collapse, meaning losing all 4 of their remaining games to even move them toward the bubble. All the numbers scream yes. 9-7 vs Q1/2 includes a sweep of #1 seed Ohio State. Sprinkled in are wins over 3 Big 10 bubbles, Indiana, Minnesota, and Maryland and ASun projected winner Liberty. The wins over the Buckeyes are worth 4 or 5 quality wins. Little doubt here.
2. (29) RUTGERS 12-7: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 3-1, road 3-4, SOS 30
I know its popular for RU fans to fret especially with what happened last year but this year is different. In looking back at the same time last year, RU was 17-8 and I was projecting them a 8 seed. The concerns last year at this time were no road wins of note, just 2 Q1 wins, and a two bad losses. This year RU has 4 quad wins including a feather in their cap win over projected 2 seed Illinois. 2 road wins over bubble schools in Indiana and Maryland, and no bad losses. Do not forget about quality wins over Minnesota and Purdue at home. RU is very well positioned right now. A fairly tough finish with a game at Michigan plus 3 games against bubble schools and a trip to pesky Nebby. Is one win enough, well it depends who it is, obviously a win over Michigan on Thursday will LOCK them in no question but I also strongly believe a win over any of those bubble schools Maryland, Indiana, and at Minnesota WILL punch the RU dance ticket. If its just at Nebraska, RU might float toward the dangerous part of the bubble and in that scenerio might make Scarlet Knight fans sweat but still its body of work and you cannot erase the good already on the resume.
7 SEEDS
3. (39) OKLAHOMA STATE 14-6: Q1: 4-4, Q2: 2-1, road 6-3, SOS 80
Cowboys seem to have everything pointing in the right direction. Biggest win at Texas Tech highlights a very strong road mark. They picked up 3 other wins vs tourney teams in Kansas, Texas, and the Arkansas win is looking better each day. Big 12 is doing extremely well in the NET numbers as 6 schools are rated in the top 22. Yet the schedule is absolutely brutal down the stretch. Games at Baylor, Texas Tech at home and then two games with Oklahoma remain, scary huh but the good thing is just one win annexes another quad 1 win and will lock OSU in the tournament. Win 3 of 4 and the Cowboys can talk about moving up to the 4/5 line.
4. (42) CLEMSON 13-5: Q1: 3-5, Q2: 6-0, road 1-4, SOS 13
Tigers overall NET lagging probably do to their loss margins. They have a lot of quality wins and the FSU win is looking better and better. OOC there is the big win over projected 2 seed Alabama and Purdue both on neutral courts. Those wins overcome the poor 1-4 road mark. Further down there are wins over Louisville and Maryland. There are no losses to schools outside of Q1 and while yes those double digit losses to Duke and Ga Tech stand out they still are Q1s. This is a very good resume. Now the bad news, a 2nd Covid pause cancelled their game with Notre Dame. After the first pause, the Tigers came back and got whipped 3 straight times. There are 4 games to close the season against ACC weakfish so no quality wins to be had. Still it would be hard to imagine a scenerio where they do not make the tournament.
5. (30) FLORIDA 10-6: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-4, SOS 58
After suffering at bad loss at South Carolina, the Gators were dealt more losses when Covid hit postponing games vs Tennessee and Texas A&M. They got back in action last night but lost at Arkansas. There is a lot to like with the win at West Virginia and 26 point drubbing of Tennessee. Throw in nice win over LSU/Ole Miss as well. Gators will have to get their sharpness back with lesser sauce in the SEC but two of those are on the road. Missouri at home is their last opportunity for a true quality win. Take care of business and avoid collecting a bunch of bad losses and they should be alright.
6.. (24) ARKANSAS 17-5: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 6-1, road 4-4, SOS 73
To be honest, I hated their profile last week. While its still a bit wobbly, the Razorbacks are in much better shape this week. Arky went from having no real win of note, their previous best be Abilene Christian to annexing Quad 1 wins at Missouri and Florida. Their overall NET has soared and while the Q1/2 total is 9 it is filled with a lot of mediocrity from the SEC. Still there are no bad losses here and they are finishing strong with 7 wins in their last 8. Blown out at Alabama the first time by 31, a return meeting offers a chance for Arkansas to secure their tournament berth with a win. Otherwise probably 2 wins will do it for them.
8 SEEDS
7. (20) COLORADO 16-6: Q1: 2-3. Q2: 5-0, 3 Q3 losses, road 5-5, SOS 102
Buffs have a strong overall NET yet it appears to be a bit of a head scratcher. Its a good resume but nothing overwhelming. The win over conference foe and Pac 12 leader USC is their best followed by a win Oregon and sweep over bubble Stanford. Yet 9 of their 16 wins come from Q3 and 4. Not to mention there are not one, not two, but three Q3 losses here. Losses to Utah, Cal, and Washington with the latter two particularly frightening because those are the two last place teams in the Pac 12. Colorado does have pretty good seperation though in the crowded 4 school bubble from the Pac 12. While I do not think there is a great concern for them missing the tournament, we may have to reevaluate that after a dangerous trip to the Oregon schools this weekend. Quality win opportunities do await afterward with a home series with UCLA/USC.
8. (28) BYU 14-5: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 2-2. road 5-2, SOS 21
Cougars have had their last two games postponed not because of Covid within their program but Covid concerns with St Mary's and San Diego. That leaves just 3 games left, two on the road vs Loyola Marymount and Pacific. Both potential landmines that could blemish a good mid major type resume. Wins over bubbles San Diego State, Utah State and St John's are the strength here. A loss to bubble Boise State. No shame in losing twice to Gonzaga or USC, the only real bad loss thus far was a Q2 to Pepperdine. SOS is willing at 21. Looking solid here as a 2nd team from the WCC.'
9. (26) LSU 13-6: Q1: 3-5, Q2: 1-1, road 3-4, SOS 15
Tigers had a good week with wins at Mississippi State and their best win of the season vs Tennessee. Its the kind of week that can firm a bubble school's sagging resume especially when the schools around them are having middling results. Their two other wins of note was Arkansas and wrong side of the bubble Ole Miss. Note they did lose to bubble St Louis and a somewhat bad loss at Kentucky. The SOS is quite strong however a deep dive sees 9 of their 13 wins come from outside Q3 and 4. Those usually start to become red flag numbers for a power 6 school. Only one Q1 opportunity remains that at Arkansas but they should be okay if they take care of the games they are suppose to win.,
10. (32) LOUISVILLE 11-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 7-0, road 3-3, SOS 42
Cards have a good NET number buoyed by 7 Q2 wins including good wins vs Va Tech, SHU and Western Kentucky. However its never a good thing ever, I do not care who you are to not have one Quad 1 victory. The good news is that there are plenty of opportunities in the homestretch. Covid and playing well returning from might be their biggest obstacle for a NCAA big. Syracuse tonight will be the first after the Cards' recent Covid pause. UL will go into the game missing two scholorship players. A trip to UNC follows. Dropping these two games would really be a cause for pause making that two game finish vs Virginia/Va Tech take on new meaning
9 SEEDS
(10) LOYOLA 16-4 (MISSOURI VALLEY): Q1: 1-2, Q2: 4-2, road 8-3, SOS 130
The Sister Jeans are back as the MVC auto qualifier for now. A rousing beatdown at Drake was their best win but they failed to pick up the sweep losing in overtime the following day. No shame is that and the thinking is that Loyola has done enough right now if they do not win the MVC tourney...as long as they take of business against lesser schools in their last 3 to close the season. Losses to Wisconsin and a close one to Richmond might be the best things to look at other than a win over North Texas. The overall NET ranking seems dubious but its not as egregious as the Colgate issue.
11. (25) SAN DIEGO STATE 14-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 4-1, road 3-2, SOS 44
Aztecs may well end up the projected MWC autobid but with that conference and bubble ace up in the air between 4 schools, they have to take some solace that they have a little bit of seperation over the other 3. Mainly that lies with their overall strong NET and SOS of 44. However the uncertainly in the Mountain West is so large right now that SDSU does not have the profile to sustain even the slightest shifts. The win over UCLA is nice and they did split with Colorado State. More troublesome was getting swept by Utah State. While not bad losses at all, this conference is not going to get 4 bids. Two huge games at home to Boise State remain as well a trip to Fresno. Assuming they take care of the latter, a sweep of Boise locks them in. A split probably keeps them in place but there is more work to do in the MWC. One concern, despite the strong SOS, 10 of its 14 wins come from Q3 and 4 and the Aztecs will not find another Q1 game until the semis of the MWC tourney. Always shaky to try and get a big without a Q1 win.
(33) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (ATLANTIC 10) 15-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 5-0, road 5-2, SOS 79
Rams moved into first place in the A10 and are the projected autobid winner for now with a huge win over St Bonaventure. While still not a Q1 win which they desperately need, it did get them their 5th Q2 victory. They have a nice OOC win over Utah State but its a rather unremarkable meh resume. Scheduled WVU and Penn State and lost both plus losses to Rhode Island and a win over Memphis. Figuring the A10 is probably getting two and there are 4 schools hanging around the bubble with not much seperating them. The Rams appear to have the slight edge at the moment and could sustain one loss but they would do themselves well to hold serve at home and beat bubbles Richmond and St Louis in the upcoming week which will not only secure their first place position in league but pad that important Q2 total.
12. (52) MINNESOTA 13-8: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 1-1, road 0-7, SOS 16
Looks like the Gophers are this year Rutgers. Great numbers, great wins, great sos, oh road games...hmm. The 0-7 road mark is a glaring wart here. I am not going to say ignore it because it is a criteria. Little Ricky's Gang only has two road games left but what a big one tonight against Indiana. Both schools jockeying for position around the same seed line so the impact is enormous. For Minny, a win tonight solves the road issue and moves them a step closer to securing a bid. The sheer impressiveness of their wins cannot be denied. Wins over two one seeds in Michigan and Ohio State plus a win over Iowa. Then you throw in wins over Purdue and nice in their pocket one over St Louis. Can they get in without a road win, its possible. Remember they still have Q1 opportunities at home vs Illinois and Rutgers, win in either of those games could make it impossible for the committee to turned down...and unlike last year the bubble is much weaker. Where they could get dinged is in seeding. Do not be concerned with sub 500 Big 10 mark, if they get the right wins, they could dance even at 8-12 in league.
10 SEEDS
(51) UTAH STATE 13-5: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 1-1, 2 Q3 losses, road: 4-1, SOS 191
Aggies still clinging to first in a tight MWC race as they deal with Covid. Their past 3 games have been cancelled and they are set to go tonight for a two game series at Boise. They must must must win at least one of these games to realistically remain on the good side of the bubble. If Boise sweeps them that could be fatal given there really is not much beef on the resume. Just a split with San Diego State and Colorado State and losses to BYU and Richmond in non conference play. Two Quad 3 losses include UNLV and Sp Dakota State but the real red flag is that 8 of their 13 wins come from Quad 4. Those are the little things that when compared with other Mountain West or Big 10 bubbles that will scream NIT. What unfolds in the Mountain West the next 3 weeks should be very interesting.
13. (50) INDIANA 11-9: Q1: 2-8, Q2: 5-0, road 3-4 SOS 60
Far from their glory days, it seems like every year the Hoosiers find themselves slightly above 500 fighting in out near the last grouping of teams in or out. While the overall record is sagging, I do not think it will be an issue this year as long as they reach 500. Big 10 has proven to be a gauntlet, there will be some sub 500 in league schools selected, the key is just to reach 500 or slightly above overall. A tough slate remains especially the last 3 of at Rutgers, Michigan and at Purdue. That is why it would behoove the Hoosiers to take care of business vs Minnesota tonight and Michigan State this weekend to take any pressure off of having to win games on the road. The sweep of Iowa saved the season and the reason they are in the field right now. Beyond that there are wins over bubbles Maryland and Stanford. Its a solid resume compared to others but they would not want to mess it up with a late season swoon.
14. (36) MARYLAND 11-10: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 1-1, road 3-5, SOS 1
Well here they are. Welcome to the dance Terps. For them it was just a matter of getting over .500 overall. The question is can they stay there. The schedule is very managable for a Big 10 school with only one of their 5 remaining games at Rutgers a game against a projected NCAA team. Getting 3 wins in the 5 will be enough. They do not have to worry about additional quality wins. It's body of work and the Terps have it. Wins at Illinois and at Wisconsin...are you kidding me. A sweep of fellow bubble Minnesota and a win over Purdue. There are no bad losses here unless you want to consider Penn State a bad loss which really isn't a good idea. Oh and one thing, the number one strength of schedule in the country.
15. (41) SETON HALL 12-8: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 3-1. road 6-4, SOS 26
To be honest, I am starting to get less impressed by their resume and its because the Big East profile taking a hit this year. Last year the Big East went way deep with quality teams night in and out. This year its two teams at the top who are not always sharp, some good teams in the middle and garbage at the bottom. Their case rests on two things One playing a tough non conference schedule which they lost most...Oregon, Louisville and in my eyes a bad loss to URI. They beat Penn State but that win is looking less impressive each day. And then their wins which consist of Xavier, UConn and St Johns, the first two barely in the field themselves. In a normal bubble year, SHU would be in serious danger. Pirates cannot afford any slips against the sisters of the poor in the Big East coming up in the next 3. Its likely the concluding games vs U Conn and St John's will have enormous implications for all 3 schools. The Pirates do have one thing going for them and that is they pass the eye test and that is not something you can say about many if any schools further down on this list below them.
11 SEEDS
16. (49) XAVIER 11-4: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 4-2, road 2-2, SOS 50
Musakateers took a covid pause and then came back and promptly dropped their last two. Losses to UConn and St Johns are not bad yet they were missed opportunties for Xavier to wrap up a bid and add to what is looking like a wobbly resume. The overall mark is good yet incomplete and its hard to know just how the selection committee will ultimately judge profiles like theirs or St Bonaventure or St Louis who have missed plenty of games. Of course the biggest plus is the 22 point win over Oklahoma. That win is going nowhere but elsewhere there is just the win over St Johns and a win over MAC leader Toledo. There are no bad losses and the SOS is very willing. The losses to SHU and UConn could potentially loom large. Not sure if their postponed Nova game will be made up but their only true shot at a Q1 win will be a home game vs Creighton. Largely Xavier is going to have take care of the Gtowns, Providence, Butlers on their schedule to avoid anything negative standing out.
17. (57) STANFORD 13-8: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 0-3, road 5-4, SOS 35
Not sure many bracketologists are noticing the Cards are benefitting from having some of their early season home games played in Santa Cruz rather than Palo Alto. The result is wins vs UCLA and Arizona at home which would normally be Q2 games are now listed as Quad 1. That would knock their current Q1 record down to 2-5 from 4-5 and put their Q2 mark at 2-3. These would be similar type numbers that Oregon and UCLA have. It could have also bumped up their overall SOS which sits at a strong 35. Just something to keep in my mind. For Stanford no one can take away the early season win over Alabama which is a rare non conference quality win for teams in this part of the bubble. A sweep of Arizona and the win over UCLA add to the resume. However in bubble matchups, losses to Indiana, Oregon and North Carolina. The losses to Utah and Arizona State are Q2 but really are not good losses. Most concerning is that 9 of their 13 wins are to Q3 and Q4 and that usually is a red flag. A potential landmine awaits in the upcoming trip to the Washington schools. Survive that and they will have to win one of at USC or home to Oregon to emphatically make their case.
18. (48) UCLA 14-5: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 1-2, road 4-3, SOS 134
My suspicions were right about the Bruins' profile. A week that saw a loss to a mediocre Washington State and then an all out death struggle to beat an awful Washington is not one to have this time of year. The record is gaudy but unpeeling the onion, the Quad numbers are awful, just 3-5 in games vs Q1 and 2. is unheard of from a NCAA at large contender from a power 6 school. 11 wins to Q3 and 4, 7 of them in Q4 alone. As for quality wins, its just a home win over Colorado and a win at non eligible Arizona. Note the losses to bubbles San Diego State and Stanford, UCLA will need to keep winning which means beating the Arizona schools handling, Utah and then taking down either Colorado at home or Pac 12 leader USC in the season finale. Can they do it?
19. (46) OREGON 12-4: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 3-1, road 4-4, SOS 190
Always a good week when you sweep the Arizona schools and while those wins do not have the same luster as in past years, the Arizona win becomes Oregon's only 2nd Q1 win. A serious lack of beef on the resume which relies basically on a non conference win over fellow bubble Seton Hall and a home to win last 4 in Stanford. That alone given the general awfulness around these regions of the bubble wouldn't be so bad but the Ducks have two Q3 home losses to Washington State and Oregon State. In addition the SOS of 190 is a big red flag. Covid has wrecked havoc with their schedule and still no word if lost games vs UCLA and USC will be made up. The last 5 are manageable but that is going to include pulling off a win over Colorado or a win at Stanford to give them another Q1 win. Do that the Ducks should float to the surface of the bubble, barely.
12 SEEDS
(45) CAL SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST) 12-3
(75) WESTERN KENTUCKY (CUSA) 15-4
20. (54) CONNECTICUT 10-5: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-3, road 4-2, SOS 81
When you go 2-0 for the week and pick up a Q1 road win knocking off another bubble school, you have to consider it a successful week. Huskies have repositioned themselves in the field after returning from a Covid pause and got back its star player. Selection committee likely to give his injury consideration for some tough losses. The win at USC is paying bigger dividends each day and it has to. Beyond those two wins, its a little bare here. UConn lost to Big East bubbles SHU and St Johns. 6 of their 10 wins are Q3/4. Villanova is next up and that is a road bounty that could fortify their dance resume. Without that they simply need to keep winning and a late season game at Seton Hall will loom large.
21. (44) COLORADO STATE 13-4: Q1: 2-3, Q1: 1-1, road 5-3, SOS 31
Covid is doing a number on the CSU schedule. Its not coming from the Rams, its their opponents, two games series vs New Mexico were wiped out last week, a non conference game with Northern Colorado for last night was cancelled and now come words that the upcoming two game series with Nevada has been KO'D. Rams just have a two game series with Air Force remaining. Still none of those games would have added the quality wins needed to beef up their resume. The Rams split with the other top 3 in the Mountain West....Utah State, San Diego State, and Boise State. 3 pretty good wins but seems like all these schools are beating each other up. There isn't a quality non conference win and their one venture to schedule a decent school resulted in an ugly 53-33 loss to St Mary's. Still there are no bad losses here and the SOS is strong. The good news is that they have the MWC tourney to state their case and can legitimately win it all. The bad news is they sit in a very precarious situation in which schools above them and below them have more opportunities to state their cases.
22. (40) SAINT BONAVENTURE 10-3: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 3-1, road 3-3, SOS 43
Bonnies plagued by Covid pauses in their program and other A10 programs were able to get a game in last Friday but a defeat to VCU knocked the Bonnies out of first place in the A10 and back into the at large field. Thinking is their chances are teetering at this point. Playing only 13 games is a negative. One can see the difference between a leauge like the Big 10 who is proactive in rescheduling games and the A10 who has been a disorganized mess as two of their schools St Bonnies and St Louis need to play as much as possible. Some good news is a reshuffling of the scheduling has them playing George Mason and Davidson this week, the bad news is desperately needed quality win chances vs Richmond and St Louis have not be rescheduled yet. Pretty tough to take a flyer on a school with just a win over VCU and another over last 8 bubble Richmond. in the metrics, Bonnies seem to be benefitting along with St Louis with playing less games and I think overall the A10 NET rankings are inflated as a whole. While there really isnt any bad loss here, I am thinking some standards need to apply to make the tournament. In for now but not sure they can afford more than one loss.
23. (37) BOISE STATE 15-4: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 0-2, road 4-4, SOS 144
After dropping two games at Nevada, the Broncs were lucky to survive an upset bid by UNLV over the weekend. It all comes down to their stretch of final 4 regular season games....a two game home series with Utah State and a two game road series with San Diego State. More than any other Mountain West bubble, BSU controls their own destiny to play in or out right now before the MWC tourney. Even a split of both keeps them in good shape because its the non conference win over BYU that would separate Boise from Colorado State and Utah State. I am sure they would like to have one of those Nevada losses back. Also consider that 9 of their 15 wins are from Quad 4 and it is reflected in their SOS of 144. Due to matchup situations, Boise was moved to last team in over St Bonnies to avoid them playing Colorado State in the play in game.
OUT
24. (58) NORTH CAROLINA 12-7: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 5-1, road 3-6, SOS 67
Well a total scrub of the pecking order and new inspection of the team sheets sees UNC on the outside looking in. Nothing wrong with losing to Virginia. It's just that the evolution of the metrics are sagging for them. Their game last weekend at Va Tech was cancelled because of Covid precautions and that was missed shot at a needed Q1 road win. Tonight they scheduled a game vs Northeastern which will not have any bearing on their profile except perhaps knock them down a spot or two. Tar Heels are just 1-5 vs schools projected in the field with that only being a win over bubble Stanford. Hard to believe that the ACC has fallen so low that wins over Duke (which by the way counts as a Q1 win in metric only) Syracuse do not move the NCAA needle at all. They probably would like road losses to Ga Tech and NC State back at this point. However with games left vs Louisville and Florida State and a road tilt at Syracuse gives them 3 Quad 1 opportunies. Thinking is they need one of those two at home and definitely need the Cuse win. Certainly doable but they will have to simply win their way back into the field as beating Stanford should not be your lead on a NCAA tourney resume.
25. (35) DRAKE 18-2: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-0, road 8-1, SOS 248
The blowout loss to Loyola on Saturday put their chances on the brink but the Bulldogs were able to recover and win in overtime the next day vs the Ramblers. That gave them their first Q1 win and will now keep them hanging around the bubble most likely vacillating just in or just out for the next 3 weeks. At this moment, Loyola has the better at large case but the thinking is if both can escape unscathed and meet in the Missouri Valley tourney finals, both would likely be extended NCAA invitations. Don't look at that terrible SOS, the bad loss to Valpo or the that 9 of its 18 wins are to Quad 4 schools. It all comes down to the scenerio I just laid out. All or nothing.
26. (66) SAINT JOHN'S 14-8: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 3-2, road 4-5, SOS 146
Johnnies rebounded from a hideous loss at Butler with a quality Quad 2 win over Xavier last night. The Johnnies metrics are lagging most likley due to close wins over some of their lesser opponents. There are too many sketchy losses to subpar schools like Marquette and Georgetown. Still there cases is made with that big Nova win, perhaps not as feathery in their cap as it might be in some other seasons. Throw in the win over UConn and this profile is very willing if they can secure a couple more big wins down the stretch while avoiding those pitfalls that have seemingly tripped them up all season long. A trip to Nova is a big challenge but the season finale vs Seton Hall look to have huge implications for both schools.
27. (56) MISSISSIPPI 12-8: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 4-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-5, SOS 74
Rebels arrive on the bubble list after a strong week including a big win over Missouri. They are winning games in bunches now and that has elevated their profile. Yet there is still work to do. Their only other quality win is Tennessee. They will need to do more especially since they have 2 Q3 losses and sketchy Q2 losses to Dayton and Georgia. Unfortunately only 1 Q1 game remains at Missouri. Its likely they will need that one and make a strong strong run in the SEC tourney. Perhaps not likely but still a chance here.
28. (31) SAINT LOUIS 11-3: Q1: 1-1, Q1: 1-0, road 1-2, SOS 282
It's never a good thing when your complete stat line is all in red. Yes I get that St Louis has a great NET at 31 but I think its inflated by them only playing 14 games and losing just 3 times. That SOS alone is brutal for a bubble school. Only 2 of their 11 wins are from Q1 and 2. And 6 of 11 from Quad 4. Come on people, this is not a NCAA type resume. Yes the win over LSU was nice and they did beat St Bonnies who I have just IN the field. Maybe if they did not have a brutal Quad 3 loss to a rank La Salle program. I am in prove it mode with them. They will have win at Dayton and then get the pair of quality wins over VCU and Richmond which of course will probably vault them into first place. A contender to win the A10 tourney, that just may be its best route
29 (55) RICHMOND 10-4: Q1: 2-1, Q2: 2-1, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-1, SOS 140
Another enigma from the A10, Spiders have just played 6 conference games. I just do not even know how to evaluate this. They do have a great non conference win over Loyola but that is it. Wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt in normal years would be stellar for them but not this year. Let us also note a Q3 loss to Hofstra and an absolute horrific loss to La Salle. I have trouble taking this profile seriously for a NCAA at large yet road trips to VCU and St Louis could change that but both are must wins at this point or they will simply have to go out and win the A10 tourney
30. (61) GEORGIA TECH 10-8: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 4-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 1-5, SOS 59
Yellowjackets hopes on life support now as they failed to pick up needed wins vs Virgina and Clemson last week. The intriguing thing is the profile is willing in some ways. Those wins over Florida State and Clemson are quality and note they did beat North Carolina. Unfortunately got slammed by the ACC scheduling where they faced 3 of the top 4 ACC schools twice. Perhaps if they did not have two Q3 losses to Mercer and Georgia State they would be in a better place but they have no one to blame but themselves. They will have to win out including a win at Virginia Tech and then we can see where they are headed into the ACC tourney., Longshot at best.
30. (53) SYRACUSE 12-6: Q1: 0-4, Q2: 2-1, road 2-5, SOS 122
I suppose we can put the Orange on here for shits and giggles but a school that has zero Quad 1 wins and only 2 Q2 wins to boot simply does not deserve to go to the NCAA tourney. 10 of their 12 wins come from Q3 and 4. They have a win over Virginia Tech...big deal, there is nothing else. They got swept by Pitt and lost to fellow bubble North Carolina. Their game at Louisville which was a needed Q1 opportunity got postponed due to Covid issues with the Cardinal. Not only will Cuse need to win out, they likely will need to reach the ACC finals to sniff a bid.
LAST 4 IN: BOISE STATE, SAINT BONAVENTURE, COLORADO STATE, CONNECTICUT
FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, DRAKE, SAINT JOHN'S, MISSISSIPPI
Okay everyone grab a cup of java and come on in. Always want to hear suggestions and comments and looking forward to take questions during the day Wednesday. Note data is through Monday's game. Does not include Tuesday's results (except noted for St John's)
Note, the Ivy League is not competing this year. Bellarmine is not eligible for the NCAA tournament. Arizona is not eligible for the NCAA tournament. Merrimack is not eligible for the NCAA tournament.
There are several schools dealing with Covid and the impact of how the NCAA weighs that issue is unknown. It is a very unusual year. What we once knew about the selection process might not be the same this season
Bare or bear with any typos, if you see them or any major errors, point them out, it takes alot of time to produce this and quite frankly proofreading isn't my strength🙂
Let's start this by identifying the one bid conferences and the schools that are projected to receive an automatic bid. There are 21 conferences that I project as one bid leagues
VERMONT AmerEast
HOUSTON American
LIBERTY Atl Sun
EASTERN WASHINGTON Big Sky
WINTHROP Big South
CAL SANTA BARBARA Big West
JAMES MADISON CAA
WESTERN KENTUCKY CUSA
WRIGHT STATE Horizon
SIENA MAAC
TOLEDO MAC
NORTH CAROLINA A&T MEAC
WAGNER NEC
BELMONT OVC
COLGATE Patriot
NO CAROLINA GREENSBORO Southern
SAM HOUSTON STATE Southland
PRAIRIE VIEW SWAC
SO DAKOTA STATE Summit
TEXAS STATE Sun Belt
GRAND CANYON WAC
Here are who I think are locks and their projected seedings as of today. There are 10 multi bid conferences. There are 37 at large bids and I have locked in 14 at large bids. I made the locks all the way down to the 6 line with the last two 6 seeds still not a lock yet There are 23 at large bids available and at this time I have identified 31 schools competing for them.
1: GONZAGA (WCC), BAYLOR (BIG 12), OHIO STATE, MICHIGAN (BIG 10)
2: ILLINOIS, ALABAMA (SEC), VILLANOVA (BIG EAST), HOUSTON (AAC)
3: OKLAHOMA, WEST VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA (ACC), FLORIDA STATE
4: IOWA, TEXAS TECH, TENNESSEE, KANSAS
5: TEXAS, CREIGHTON, WISCONSIN, USC
6: MISSOURI, VIRGINIA TECH
Here is the pecking order.....
6 SEEDS
1. (27) PURDUE 14-8: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 6-0, road 3-6, SOS 19
Boilermakers took care of business over struggling Michigan State to inch closer to returning to the NCAA tournament. At this point it would take a historic collapse, meaning losing all 4 of their remaining games to even move them toward the bubble. All the numbers scream yes. 9-7 vs Q1/2 includes a sweep of #1 seed Ohio State. Sprinkled in are wins over 3 Big 10 bubbles, Indiana, Minnesota, and Maryland and ASun projected winner Liberty. The wins over the Buckeyes are worth 4 or 5 quality wins. Little doubt here.
2. (29) RUTGERS 12-7: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 3-1, road 3-4, SOS 30
I know its popular for RU fans to fret especially with what happened last year but this year is different. In looking back at the same time last year, RU was 17-8 and I was projecting them a 8 seed. The concerns last year at this time were no road wins of note, just 2 Q1 wins, and a two bad losses. This year RU has 4 quad wins including a feather in their cap win over projected 2 seed Illinois. 2 road wins over bubble schools in Indiana and Maryland, and no bad losses. Do not forget about quality wins over Minnesota and Purdue at home. RU is very well positioned right now. A fairly tough finish with a game at Michigan plus 3 games against bubble schools and a trip to pesky Nebby. Is one win enough, well it depends who it is, obviously a win over Michigan on Thursday will LOCK them in no question but I also strongly believe a win over any of those bubble schools Maryland, Indiana, and at Minnesota WILL punch the RU dance ticket. If its just at Nebraska, RU might float toward the dangerous part of the bubble and in that scenerio might make Scarlet Knight fans sweat but still its body of work and you cannot erase the good already on the resume.
7 SEEDS
3. (39) OKLAHOMA STATE 14-6: Q1: 4-4, Q2: 2-1, road 6-3, SOS 80
Cowboys seem to have everything pointing in the right direction. Biggest win at Texas Tech highlights a very strong road mark. They picked up 3 other wins vs tourney teams in Kansas, Texas, and the Arkansas win is looking better each day. Big 12 is doing extremely well in the NET numbers as 6 schools are rated in the top 22. Yet the schedule is absolutely brutal down the stretch. Games at Baylor, Texas Tech at home and then two games with Oklahoma remain, scary huh but the good thing is just one win annexes another quad 1 win and will lock OSU in the tournament. Win 3 of 4 and the Cowboys can talk about moving up to the 4/5 line.
4. (42) CLEMSON 13-5: Q1: 3-5, Q2: 6-0, road 1-4, SOS 13
Tigers overall NET lagging probably do to their loss margins. They have a lot of quality wins and the FSU win is looking better and better. OOC there is the big win over projected 2 seed Alabama and Purdue both on neutral courts. Those wins overcome the poor 1-4 road mark. Further down there are wins over Louisville and Maryland. There are no losses to schools outside of Q1 and while yes those double digit losses to Duke and Ga Tech stand out they still are Q1s. This is a very good resume. Now the bad news, a 2nd Covid pause cancelled their game with Notre Dame. After the first pause, the Tigers came back and got whipped 3 straight times. There are 4 games to close the season against ACC weakfish so no quality wins to be had. Still it would be hard to imagine a scenerio where they do not make the tournament.
5. (30) FLORIDA 10-6: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-4, SOS 58
After suffering at bad loss at South Carolina, the Gators were dealt more losses when Covid hit postponing games vs Tennessee and Texas A&M. They got back in action last night but lost at Arkansas. There is a lot to like with the win at West Virginia and 26 point drubbing of Tennessee. Throw in nice win over LSU/Ole Miss as well. Gators will have to get their sharpness back with lesser sauce in the SEC but two of those are on the road. Missouri at home is their last opportunity for a true quality win. Take care of business and avoid collecting a bunch of bad losses and they should be alright.
6.. (24) ARKANSAS 17-5: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 6-1, road 4-4, SOS 73
To be honest, I hated their profile last week. While its still a bit wobbly, the Razorbacks are in much better shape this week. Arky went from having no real win of note, their previous best be Abilene Christian to annexing Quad 1 wins at Missouri and Florida. Their overall NET has soared and while the Q1/2 total is 9 it is filled with a lot of mediocrity from the SEC. Still there are no bad losses here and they are finishing strong with 7 wins in their last 8. Blown out at Alabama the first time by 31, a return meeting offers a chance for Arkansas to secure their tournament berth with a win. Otherwise probably 2 wins will do it for them.
8 SEEDS
7. (20) COLORADO 16-6: Q1: 2-3. Q2: 5-0, 3 Q3 losses, road 5-5, SOS 102
Buffs have a strong overall NET yet it appears to be a bit of a head scratcher. Its a good resume but nothing overwhelming. The win over conference foe and Pac 12 leader USC is their best followed by a win Oregon and sweep over bubble Stanford. Yet 9 of their 16 wins come from Q3 and 4. Not to mention there are not one, not two, but three Q3 losses here. Losses to Utah, Cal, and Washington with the latter two particularly frightening because those are the two last place teams in the Pac 12. Colorado does have pretty good seperation though in the crowded 4 school bubble from the Pac 12. While I do not think there is a great concern for them missing the tournament, we may have to reevaluate that after a dangerous trip to the Oregon schools this weekend. Quality win opportunities do await afterward with a home series with UCLA/USC.
8. (28) BYU 14-5: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 2-2. road 5-2, SOS 21
Cougars have had their last two games postponed not because of Covid within their program but Covid concerns with St Mary's and San Diego. That leaves just 3 games left, two on the road vs Loyola Marymount and Pacific. Both potential landmines that could blemish a good mid major type resume. Wins over bubbles San Diego State, Utah State and St John's are the strength here. A loss to bubble Boise State. No shame in losing twice to Gonzaga or USC, the only real bad loss thus far was a Q2 to Pepperdine. SOS is willing at 21. Looking solid here as a 2nd team from the WCC.'
9. (26) LSU 13-6: Q1: 3-5, Q2: 1-1, road 3-4, SOS 15
Tigers had a good week with wins at Mississippi State and their best win of the season vs Tennessee. Its the kind of week that can firm a bubble school's sagging resume especially when the schools around them are having middling results. Their two other wins of note was Arkansas and wrong side of the bubble Ole Miss. Note they did lose to bubble St Louis and a somewhat bad loss at Kentucky. The SOS is quite strong however a deep dive sees 9 of their 13 wins come from outside Q3 and 4. Those usually start to become red flag numbers for a power 6 school. Only one Q1 opportunity remains that at Arkansas but they should be okay if they take care of the games they are suppose to win.,
10. (32) LOUISVILLE 11-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 7-0, road 3-3, SOS 42
Cards have a good NET number buoyed by 7 Q2 wins including good wins vs Va Tech, SHU and Western Kentucky. However its never a good thing ever, I do not care who you are to not have one Quad 1 victory. The good news is that there are plenty of opportunities in the homestretch. Covid and playing well returning from might be their biggest obstacle for a NCAA big. Syracuse tonight will be the first after the Cards' recent Covid pause. UL will go into the game missing two scholorship players. A trip to UNC follows. Dropping these two games would really be a cause for pause making that two game finish vs Virginia/Va Tech take on new meaning
9 SEEDS
(10) LOYOLA 16-4 (MISSOURI VALLEY): Q1: 1-2, Q2: 4-2, road 8-3, SOS 130
The Sister Jeans are back as the MVC auto qualifier for now. A rousing beatdown at Drake was their best win but they failed to pick up the sweep losing in overtime the following day. No shame is that and the thinking is that Loyola has done enough right now if they do not win the MVC tourney...as long as they take of business against lesser schools in their last 3 to close the season. Losses to Wisconsin and a close one to Richmond might be the best things to look at other than a win over North Texas. The overall NET ranking seems dubious but its not as egregious as the Colgate issue.
11. (25) SAN DIEGO STATE 14-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 4-1, road 3-2, SOS 44
Aztecs may well end up the projected MWC autobid but with that conference and bubble ace up in the air between 4 schools, they have to take some solace that they have a little bit of seperation over the other 3. Mainly that lies with their overall strong NET and SOS of 44. However the uncertainly in the Mountain West is so large right now that SDSU does not have the profile to sustain even the slightest shifts. The win over UCLA is nice and they did split with Colorado State. More troublesome was getting swept by Utah State. While not bad losses at all, this conference is not going to get 4 bids. Two huge games at home to Boise State remain as well a trip to Fresno. Assuming they take care of the latter, a sweep of Boise locks them in. A split probably keeps them in place but there is more work to do in the MWC. One concern, despite the strong SOS, 10 of its 14 wins come from Q3 and 4 and the Aztecs will not find another Q1 game until the semis of the MWC tourney. Always shaky to try and get a big without a Q1 win.
(33) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (ATLANTIC 10) 15-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 5-0, road 5-2, SOS 79
Rams moved into first place in the A10 and are the projected autobid winner for now with a huge win over St Bonaventure. While still not a Q1 win which they desperately need, it did get them their 5th Q2 victory. They have a nice OOC win over Utah State but its a rather unremarkable meh resume. Scheduled WVU and Penn State and lost both plus losses to Rhode Island and a win over Memphis. Figuring the A10 is probably getting two and there are 4 schools hanging around the bubble with not much seperating them. The Rams appear to have the slight edge at the moment and could sustain one loss but they would do themselves well to hold serve at home and beat bubbles Richmond and St Louis in the upcoming week which will not only secure their first place position in league but pad that important Q2 total.
12. (52) MINNESOTA 13-8: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 1-1, road 0-7, SOS 16
Looks like the Gophers are this year Rutgers. Great numbers, great wins, great sos, oh road games...hmm. The 0-7 road mark is a glaring wart here. I am not going to say ignore it because it is a criteria. Little Ricky's Gang only has two road games left but what a big one tonight against Indiana. Both schools jockeying for position around the same seed line so the impact is enormous. For Minny, a win tonight solves the road issue and moves them a step closer to securing a bid. The sheer impressiveness of their wins cannot be denied. Wins over two one seeds in Michigan and Ohio State plus a win over Iowa. Then you throw in wins over Purdue and nice in their pocket one over St Louis. Can they get in without a road win, its possible. Remember they still have Q1 opportunities at home vs Illinois and Rutgers, win in either of those games could make it impossible for the committee to turned down...and unlike last year the bubble is much weaker. Where they could get dinged is in seeding. Do not be concerned with sub 500 Big 10 mark, if they get the right wins, they could dance even at 8-12 in league.
10 SEEDS
(51) UTAH STATE 13-5: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 1-1, 2 Q3 losses, road: 4-1, SOS 191
Aggies still clinging to first in a tight MWC race as they deal with Covid. Their past 3 games have been cancelled and they are set to go tonight for a two game series at Boise. They must must must win at least one of these games to realistically remain on the good side of the bubble. If Boise sweeps them that could be fatal given there really is not much beef on the resume. Just a split with San Diego State and Colorado State and losses to BYU and Richmond in non conference play. Two Quad 3 losses include UNLV and Sp Dakota State but the real red flag is that 8 of their 13 wins come from Quad 4. Those are the little things that when compared with other Mountain West or Big 10 bubbles that will scream NIT. What unfolds in the Mountain West the next 3 weeks should be very interesting.
13. (50) INDIANA 11-9: Q1: 2-8, Q2: 5-0, road 3-4 SOS 60
Far from their glory days, it seems like every year the Hoosiers find themselves slightly above 500 fighting in out near the last grouping of teams in or out. While the overall record is sagging, I do not think it will be an issue this year as long as they reach 500. Big 10 has proven to be a gauntlet, there will be some sub 500 in league schools selected, the key is just to reach 500 or slightly above overall. A tough slate remains especially the last 3 of at Rutgers, Michigan and at Purdue. That is why it would behoove the Hoosiers to take care of business vs Minnesota tonight and Michigan State this weekend to take any pressure off of having to win games on the road. The sweep of Iowa saved the season and the reason they are in the field right now. Beyond that there are wins over bubbles Maryland and Stanford. Its a solid resume compared to others but they would not want to mess it up with a late season swoon.
14. (36) MARYLAND 11-10: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 1-1, road 3-5, SOS 1
Well here they are. Welcome to the dance Terps. For them it was just a matter of getting over .500 overall. The question is can they stay there. The schedule is very managable for a Big 10 school with only one of their 5 remaining games at Rutgers a game against a projected NCAA team. Getting 3 wins in the 5 will be enough. They do not have to worry about additional quality wins. It's body of work and the Terps have it. Wins at Illinois and at Wisconsin...are you kidding me. A sweep of fellow bubble Minnesota and a win over Purdue. There are no bad losses here unless you want to consider Penn State a bad loss which really isn't a good idea. Oh and one thing, the number one strength of schedule in the country.
15. (41) SETON HALL 12-8: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 3-1. road 6-4, SOS 26
To be honest, I am starting to get less impressed by their resume and its because the Big East profile taking a hit this year. Last year the Big East went way deep with quality teams night in and out. This year its two teams at the top who are not always sharp, some good teams in the middle and garbage at the bottom. Their case rests on two things One playing a tough non conference schedule which they lost most...Oregon, Louisville and in my eyes a bad loss to URI. They beat Penn State but that win is looking less impressive each day. And then their wins which consist of Xavier, UConn and St Johns, the first two barely in the field themselves. In a normal bubble year, SHU would be in serious danger. Pirates cannot afford any slips against the sisters of the poor in the Big East coming up in the next 3. Its likely the concluding games vs U Conn and St John's will have enormous implications for all 3 schools. The Pirates do have one thing going for them and that is they pass the eye test and that is not something you can say about many if any schools further down on this list below them.
11 SEEDS
16. (49) XAVIER 11-4: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 4-2, road 2-2, SOS 50
Musakateers took a covid pause and then came back and promptly dropped their last two. Losses to UConn and St Johns are not bad yet they were missed opportunties for Xavier to wrap up a bid and add to what is looking like a wobbly resume. The overall mark is good yet incomplete and its hard to know just how the selection committee will ultimately judge profiles like theirs or St Bonaventure or St Louis who have missed plenty of games. Of course the biggest plus is the 22 point win over Oklahoma. That win is going nowhere but elsewhere there is just the win over St Johns and a win over MAC leader Toledo. There are no bad losses and the SOS is very willing. The losses to SHU and UConn could potentially loom large. Not sure if their postponed Nova game will be made up but their only true shot at a Q1 win will be a home game vs Creighton. Largely Xavier is going to have take care of the Gtowns, Providence, Butlers on their schedule to avoid anything negative standing out.
17. (57) STANFORD 13-8: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 0-3, road 5-4, SOS 35
Not sure many bracketologists are noticing the Cards are benefitting from having some of their early season home games played in Santa Cruz rather than Palo Alto. The result is wins vs UCLA and Arizona at home which would normally be Q2 games are now listed as Quad 1. That would knock their current Q1 record down to 2-5 from 4-5 and put their Q2 mark at 2-3. These would be similar type numbers that Oregon and UCLA have. It could have also bumped up their overall SOS which sits at a strong 35. Just something to keep in my mind. For Stanford no one can take away the early season win over Alabama which is a rare non conference quality win for teams in this part of the bubble. A sweep of Arizona and the win over UCLA add to the resume. However in bubble matchups, losses to Indiana, Oregon and North Carolina. The losses to Utah and Arizona State are Q2 but really are not good losses. Most concerning is that 9 of their 13 wins are to Q3 and Q4 and that usually is a red flag. A potential landmine awaits in the upcoming trip to the Washington schools. Survive that and they will have to win one of at USC or home to Oregon to emphatically make their case.
18. (48) UCLA 14-5: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 1-2, road 4-3, SOS 134
My suspicions were right about the Bruins' profile. A week that saw a loss to a mediocre Washington State and then an all out death struggle to beat an awful Washington is not one to have this time of year. The record is gaudy but unpeeling the onion, the Quad numbers are awful, just 3-5 in games vs Q1 and 2. is unheard of from a NCAA at large contender from a power 6 school. 11 wins to Q3 and 4, 7 of them in Q4 alone. As for quality wins, its just a home win over Colorado and a win at non eligible Arizona. Note the losses to bubbles San Diego State and Stanford, UCLA will need to keep winning which means beating the Arizona schools handling, Utah and then taking down either Colorado at home or Pac 12 leader USC in the season finale. Can they do it?
19. (46) OREGON 12-4: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 3-1, road 4-4, SOS 190
Always a good week when you sweep the Arizona schools and while those wins do not have the same luster as in past years, the Arizona win becomes Oregon's only 2nd Q1 win. A serious lack of beef on the resume which relies basically on a non conference win over fellow bubble Seton Hall and a home to win last 4 in Stanford. That alone given the general awfulness around these regions of the bubble wouldn't be so bad but the Ducks have two Q3 home losses to Washington State and Oregon State. In addition the SOS of 190 is a big red flag. Covid has wrecked havoc with their schedule and still no word if lost games vs UCLA and USC will be made up. The last 5 are manageable but that is going to include pulling off a win over Colorado or a win at Stanford to give them another Q1 win. Do that the Ducks should float to the surface of the bubble, barely.
12 SEEDS
(45) CAL SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST) 12-3
(75) WESTERN KENTUCKY (CUSA) 15-4
20. (54) CONNECTICUT 10-5: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-3, road 4-2, SOS 81
When you go 2-0 for the week and pick up a Q1 road win knocking off another bubble school, you have to consider it a successful week. Huskies have repositioned themselves in the field after returning from a Covid pause and got back its star player. Selection committee likely to give his injury consideration for some tough losses. The win at USC is paying bigger dividends each day and it has to. Beyond those two wins, its a little bare here. UConn lost to Big East bubbles SHU and St Johns. 6 of their 10 wins are Q3/4. Villanova is next up and that is a road bounty that could fortify their dance resume. Without that they simply need to keep winning and a late season game at Seton Hall will loom large.
21. (44) COLORADO STATE 13-4: Q1: 2-3, Q1: 1-1, road 5-3, SOS 31
Covid is doing a number on the CSU schedule. Its not coming from the Rams, its their opponents, two games series vs New Mexico were wiped out last week, a non conference game with Northern Colorado for last night was cancelled and now come words that the upcoming two game series with Nevada has been KO'D. Rams just have a two game series with Air Force remaining. Still none of those games would have added the quality wins needed to beef up their resume. The Rams split with the other top 3 in the Mountain West....Utah State, San Diego State, and Boise State. 3 pretty good wins but seems like all these schools are beating each other up. There isn't a quality non conference win and their one venture to schedule a decent school resulted in an ugly 53-33 loss to St Mary's. Still there are no bad losses here and the SOS is strong. The good news is that they have the MWC tourney to state their case and can legitimately win it all. The bad news is they sit in a very precarious situation in which schools above them and below them have more opportunities to state their cases.
22. (40) SAINT BONAVENTURE 10-3: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 3-1, road 3-3, SOS 43
Bonnies plagued by Covid pauses in their program and other A10 programs were able to get a game in last Friday but a defeat to VCU knocked the Bonnies out of first place in the A10 and back into the at large field. Thinking is their chances are teetering at this point. Playing only 13 games is a negative. One can see the difference between a leauge like the Big 10 who is proactive in rescheduling games and the A10 who has been a disorganized mess as two of their schools St Bonnies and St Louis need to play as much as possible. Some good news is a reshuffling of the scheduling has them playing George Mason and Davidson this week, the bad news is desperately needed quality win chances vs Richmond and St Louis have not be rescheduled yet. Pretty tough to take a flyer on a school with just a win over VCU and another over last 8 bubble Richmond. in the metrics, Bonnies seem to be benefitting along with St Louis with playing less games and I think overall the A10 NET rankings are inflated as a whole. While there really isnt any bad loss here, I am thinking some standards need to apply to make the tournament. In for now but not sure they can afford more than one loss.
23. (37) BOISE STATE 15-4: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 0-2, road 4-4, SOS 144
After dropping two games at Nevada, the Broncs were lucky to survive an upset bid by UNLV over the weekend. It all comes down to their stretch of final 4 regular season games....a two game home series with Utah State and a two game road series with San Diego State. More than any other Mountain West bubble, BSU controls their own destiny to play in or out right now before the MWC tourney. Even a split of both keeps them in good shape because its the non conference win over BYU that would separate Boise from Colorado State and Utah State. I am sure they would like to have one of those Nevada losses back. Also consider that 9 of their 15 wins are from Quad 4 and it is reflected in their SOS of 144. Due to matchup situations, Boise was moved to last team in over St Bonnies to avoid them playing Colorado State in the play in game.
OUT
24. (58) NORTH CAROLINA 12-7: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 5-1, road 3-6, SOS 67
Well a total scrub of the pecking order and new inspection of the team sheets sees UNC on the outside looking in. Nothing wrong with losing to Virginia. It's just that the evolution of the metrics are sagging for them. Their game last weekend at Va Tech was cancelled because of Covid precautions and that was missed shot at a needed Q1 road win. Tonight they scheduled a game vs Northeastern which will not have any bearing on their profile except perhaps knock them down a spot or two. Tar Heels are just 1-5 vs schools projected in the field with that only being a win over bubble Stanford. Hard to believe that the ACC has fallen so low that wins over Duke (which by the way counts as a Q1 win in metric only) Syracuse do not move the NCAA needle at all. They probably would like road losses to Ga Tech and NC State back at this point. However with games left vs Louisville and Florida State and a road tilt at Syracuse gives them 3 Quad 1 opportunies. Thinking is they need one of those two at home and definitely need the Cuse win. Certainly doable but they will have to simply win their way back into the field as beating Stanford should not be your lead on a NCAA tourney resume.
25. (35) DRAKE 18-2: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-0, road 8-1, SOS 248
The blowout loss to Loyola on Saturday put their chances on the brink but the Bulldogs were able to recover and win in overtime the next day vs the Ramblers. That gave them their first Q1 win and will now keep them hanging around the bubble most likely vacillating just in or just out for the next 3 weeks. At this moment, Loyola has the better at large case but the thinking is if both can escape unscathed and meet in the Missouri Valley tourney finals, both would likely be extended NCAA invitations. Don't look at that terrible SOS, the bad loss to Valpo or the that 9 of its 18 wins are to Quad 4 schools. It all comes down to the scenerio I just laid out. All or nothing.
26. (66) SAINT JOHN'S 14-8: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 3-2, road 4-5, SOS 146
Johnnies rebounded from a hideous loss at Butler with a quality Quad 2 win over Xavier last night. The Johnnies metrics are lagging most likley due to close wins over some of their lesser opponents. There are too many sketchy losses to subpar schools like Marquette and Georgetown. Still there cases is made with that big Nova win, perhaps not as feathery in their cap as it might be in some other seasons. Throw in the win over UConn and this profile is very willing if they can secure a couple more big wins down the stretch while avoiding those pitfalls that have seemingly tripped them up all season long. A trip to Nova is a big challenge but the season finale vs Seton Hall look to have huge implications for both schools.
27. (56) MISSISSIPPI 12-8: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 4-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-5, SOS 74
Rebels arrive on the bubble list after a strong week including a big win over Missouri. They are winning games in bunches now and that has elevated their profile. Yet there is still work to do. Their only other quality win is Tennessee. They will need to do more especially since they have 2 Q3 losses and sketchy Q2 losses to Dayton and Georgia. Unfortunately only 1 Q1 game remains at Missouri. Its likely they will need that one and make a strong strong run in the SEC tourney. Perhaps not likely but still a chance here.
28. (31) SAINT LOUIS 11-3: Q1: 1-1, Q1: 1-0, road 1-2, SOS 282
It's never a good thing when your complete stat line is all in red. Yes I get that St Louis has a great NET at 31 but I think its inflated by them only playing 14 games and losing just 3 times. That SOS alone is brutal for a bubble school. Only 2 of their 11 wins are from Q1 and 2. And 6 of 11 from Quad 4. Come on people, this is not a NCAA type resume. Yes the win over LSU was nice and they did beat St Bonnies who I have just IN the field. Maybe if they did not have a brutal Quad 3 loss to a rank La Salle program. I am in prove it mode with them. They will have win at Dayton and then get the pair of quality wins over VCU and Richmond which of course will probably vault them into first place. A contender to win the A10 tourney, that just may be its best route
29 (55) RICHMOND 10-4: Q1: 2-1, Q2: 2-1, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-1, SOS 140
Another enigma from the A10, Spiders have just played 6 conference games. I just do not even know how to evaluate this. They do have a great non conference win over Loyola but that is it. Wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt in normal years would be stellar for them but not this year. Let us also note a Q3 loss to Hofstra and an absolute horrific loss to La Salle. I have trouble taking this profile seriously for a NCAA at large yet road trips to VCU and St Louis could change that but both are must wins at this point or they will simply have to go out and win the A10 tourney
30. (61) GEORGIA TECH 10-8: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 4-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 1-5, SOS 59
Yellowjackets hopes on life support now as they failed to pick up needed wins vs Virgina and Clemson last week. The intriguing thing is the profile is willing in some ways. Those wins over Florida State and Clemson are quality and note they did beat North Carolina. Unfortunately got slammed by the ACC scheduling where they faced 3 of the top 4 ACC schools twice. Perhaps if they did not have two Q3 losses to Mercer and Georgia State they would be in a better place but they have no one to blame but themselves. They will have to win out including a win at Virginia Tech and then we can see where they are headed into the ACC tourney., Longshot at best.
30. (53) SYRACUSE 12-6: Q1: 0-4, Q2: 2-1, road 2-5, SOS 122
I suppose we can put the Orange on here for shits and giggles but a school that has zero Quad 1 wins and only 2 Q2 wins to boot simply does not deserve to go to the NCAA tourney. 10 of their 12 wins come from Q3 and 4. They have a win over Virginia Tech...big deal, there is nothing else. They got swept by Pitt and lost to fellow bubble North Carolina. Their game at Louisville which was a needed Q1 opportunity got postponed due to Covid issues with the Cardinal. Not only will Cuse need to win out, they likely will need to reach the ACC finals to sniff a bid.
LAST 4 IN: BOISE STATE, SAINT BONAVENTURE, COLORADO STATE, CONNECTICUT
FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, DRAKE, SAINT JOHN'S, MISSISSIPPI
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