I'm not so sure. Making Utah State play league leader Boise twice in three days @ Boise. I would hope NCAA would look at that. Hardly fair.
I think St.Louis is the one whose hopes were dashed.
2/17 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
I'm not so sure. Making Utah State play league leader Boise twice in three days @ Boise. I would hope NCAA would look at that. Hardly fair.
I think St.Louis is the one whose hopes were dashed.
Not so fast.
Wichita State is now firmly on the bubble.
Memphis can be as well. Win their next three which they are favored and then the last home game of the season is... Houston.
Stranger things have happened. Would certainly be bubble worthy.
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Its completely fair. Utah State had both San Diego St and Colorado State at home
Utah St is odd man out..7 losses and unremarkable resume..2 quad 3 losses and 8 wins are Quad4
Sorry not getting 3. Memphis has done nothing. If they make a run then Wichita St is out..only one of them can make the AAC finals
Utah St is now out.
There exist scenarios where the AAC gets 3 for sure. 2 is definitely the base case though and 1 is more likely than 3.
Agree Utah St needs to win the MWC..i dont see 4.
I suppose some faint scenerio exists for 3 in AAC but it isnt worth talking about. The next Wichita State loss knocks them out and puts their NET back in the 70s.
I don't it's that unlikely that, for example, Memphis or Wichita manages to get the autobid and SMU finishes strong and gets in at-large. Again, not expecting it or anything and I also don't think it's that unlikely that Houston ends up being the only bid from that conference.
But still, as you say, two is the most likely outcome.
But still, as you say, two is the most likely outcome.
If SMU finishes 5-0 and goes 1-1 in their tourney they will be 17-5 against a weak but not horrendously weak schedule. Granted no Q1 wins or one at most, but 6-1 Q2.
Their competition will be teams with worse overall records and more questionable losses but also more quality wins.
Their competition will be teams with worse overall records and more questionable losses but also more quality wins.
But could put SMU in the picture! There are four decent teams in Houston, Wichita, Memphis and SMU. Think two more likely than just Houston.
I know you like to focus on quality wins almost to the exclusion of all else, but can you really give a compelling reason why a hypothetical
SMU : 17-5 (12-4)
Q1 : 0-3
Q2: 6-1
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 3-0
5 losses are: Houston, at Houston, Cincinnati, at Memphis, vs Wichita St.
is never getting a bid over
Mississippi: 16-11 (10-8)
Q1: 3-6
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 3-3
Q4: 5-0
or
St. Bonaventure: 14-5 (11-4)
Q1: 1-4
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 6-0
SMU : 17-5 (12-4)
Q1 : 0-3
Q2: 6-1
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 3-0
5 losses are: Houston, at Houston, Cincinnati, at Memphis, vs Wichita St.
is never getting a bid over
Mississippi: 16-11 (10-8)
Q1: 3-6
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 3-3
Q4: 5-0
or
St. Bonaventure: 14-5 (11-4)
Q1: 1-4
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 6-0
If it's Boise and Colorado State and SDSU... it could be interesting as Utah State beat SDSU twice. Makes it fun.
Sure. That's the case for Mississippi.
But the case for SMU there is:
Better overall record
Better record against decent to good teams: SMU 6-4 Q1/2 vs Mississippi 8-8
Better record against bad teams: SMU 8-1 vs Q3 to Mississippi's putrid 3-3
But we're talking about a 5 loss SMU.
Lets also note that SMU in a covid pause will have a 4th game cancelled on Tuesday...their game vs Wichita next week is also in jeopardy
7 of their 11 wins beyond Q2 and 3
Sorry heres another resume im not wasting time on right now
7 of their 11 wins beyond Q2 and 3
Sorry heres another resume im not wasting time on right now
None of these are the direct competition. Drake I think gets in with like a 10 seed. Belmont and Winthrop are projected auto-bids.
North Carolina is in as well most likely. I'm presenting Mississippi because they are like the most borderline team to compare with. Syracuse is also pretty comparable there:
Syracuse : 15-9 (8-7)
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 3-0
This would be SMUs direct competition if they managed to finish the season with 5 losses. They've got the Q1 wins, sure, but you yourself were arguing a few days ago that they have no shot unless they make the ACC finals.
My Bacatology analysis is based on realistic scenerios. I dont entertain far out possibilities. If I did i would include Duke and Auburn and Nevada and Davidson and Pitt
When SMU does enough to become a realistic possibility then they will considered as such. Good luck as I said
You want to consider Belmont who literally hasn't played a Q1 or Q2 game and has a Q4 loss but then dismiss SMU because of no Q1 wins?
You are completely inconsistent! There's no logic to that whatsoever.
You are completely inconsistent! There's no logic to that whatsoever.
Lol, my man, of the teams you included in your out section SMU has a better shot than:
Mississippi
Richmond
Georgia Tech
Syracuse
of getting an at-large bid
Theyve played 15 games...11-4...7 wins to q3 and 4
We dont even know when or if they will another game
We dont even know when or if they will another game
"No quality wins"
"Also I would consider these two teams who literally have not played against a Q1 OR Q2 team all season"
"Also I would consider these two teams who literally have not played against a Q1 OR Q2 team all season"
You do realize why 25-2 teams like Belmont or Winthrop would be considered. If you don't then maybe you should sit this discussion out
Meanwhile the mediocre AAC who now has a 2nd school in barely isnt all of a sudden taken flyer on a 3rd
.sure SMU can win all their regular season games and get to the AAC finals...then we will talk
As i said good luck
My credibility speaks for itself
Meanwhile you arguing a 5% scenerio like anyone cares
It is starting to. I had given you a lot of deference because you obviously have a ton of experience doing this but if you are going to sit here and simultaneously say with a straight face that:
(a) An 11-4 team with a KenPom SOS of 89 has no shot at making the tournament because "no quality wins" and "mediocre conference"
AND
(b) A 22-1 team with a KenPom SOS of 321 that lost to Samford at home and has played a schedule consisting of 7 Q3 games and 16 Q4 games (0 Q1, 0 Q2) in the Ohio Valley Conference "would be considered"
Then the deference was wholly undeserved. This is the same kind of logic that leads to advocacy of the mid-range game as a primary scoring weapon. The world has passed you by.
How about you start your own thread about the values of 11-4 SMU with zero quality wins making the tournament because I really don't give a shit
And yes 25-2 Belmont will have a better shot than 15-5 SMU though both are very unlikely anyhow
I guess getting embarrassed in your own thread doesn't agree with you..
Look, because this is the internet and it can get very combative I will say: though I wholly and 100% disagree with you on some points these are very good threads with very good, in depth analysis that I understand takes a lot of time to put together. Without all the work you put in here there wouldn't even be a good jumping off point to have these discussions.
It’s important we don’t end up on the 8/9 seed line because we will in all likelihood be in the same bracket as Gonzaga or Baylor with other Big 10 squads probably as 1 seeds in other brackets.
VCU suffered a damaging overtime loss to George Mason, a home quad 3 loss that is dangerously close to a Q4 loss
Puts the A10 in total disarray as now Davidson/UMass at 6-2 become the AQ currently. While VCU profile takes a major hit, it might be St Bonnies who falls out for now
Puts the A10 in total disarray as now Davidson/UMass at 6-2 become the AQ currently. While VCU profile takes a major hit, it might be St Bonnies who falls out for now
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