Welcome, grab a cup of Java and enjoy.
I have locked up 18 of the 37 available at large bids all the way down to the first 7 seed. Let's dive into field and the pecking order......
ONE SEEDS
GONZAGA
BAYLOR
MICHIGAN
OHIO STATE
TWO SEEDS
ILLINOIS
ALABAMA
VILLANOVA
WEST VIRGINIA
THREE SEEDS
IOWA
HOUSTON
FLORIDA STATE
OKLAHOMA
FOUR SEEDS
TENNESSEE
KANSAS
VIRGINIA
USC
FIVE SEEDS
OKLAHOMA STATE
TEXAS TECH
MISSOURI
TEXAS
SIX SEEDS
WISCONSIN
PURDUE
CREIGHTON
CLEMSON
SEVEN SEEDS
VIRGINIA TECH
1. (21) BYU 16-5: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-2, road 7-2, SOS 28
All but academic here for the Cougars. Reshuffling of the schedule has them playing San Francisco and St Mary's to close the year. A win in either of them will be good enough at this point. Though they did not challenge the Zags this year, BYU will get rewarded for that 2nd place finish in the WCC. Road wins at solid Mountain West schools San Diego State and Utah State highlight the resume. Throw in a decent win to St Johns and the only real bad loss (still a Q2) was to Pepperdine. All the other metrics like sos and road mark are all in their favor.
2. (26) ARKANSAS 17-5: Q1: 4-4, Q2: 4-1, road 4-4, SOS 63
Razorbacks positioned well after winning 7 of their last 8. Quad total and overall metrics are perhaps a bit deceiving as a deeper dive shows just two wins of note. Best wins are Missouri and Florida. Yet wins vs Auburn/Kentucky are Q1 wins really in name only. The next best win is Ole Miss. Still, its a clean profile with no bad losses. Not sure of SEC rescheduling but Hogs probably just need one more down the stretch to make it academic. Bama and LSU of course are the biggest opportunities as they will raise the profile but a road win at SC would be enough to lock them.
3. (30) MARYLAND 13-10: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 1-1, road 4-5, SOS 29
No school has flown up the charts as stealth and as swift as the Terps. Left for dead early in the season, they did spring some upsets over Wisconsin and Illinois. Yet they still could not push their overall mark over 500 until last week when they won 4 times in 8 days. The win over Rutgers was enormous putting them 3 games over 500 with a fairly soft schedule ahead. In addition to the aforementioned wins were wins over Purdue and a sweep of fading bubble Minnesota. No bad losses and a strong SOS scream yes. The fact that losing to #31 Rutgers at home is their worst loss by the metrics is sick! Metrics all justifying this type of seeding right now. Just need to take care of business with Mich St/Penn State at home and trip to Northwestern. Win 2 of 3 and they are locked and loaded. Lose 2 of 3 and they will need a Big 10 tourney win.
EIGHT SEEDS
4. (31) RUTGERS 12-9: Q1: 4-8, Q2: 3-1, road 3-5, SOS 21
Scarlet Knights missed an opportunity to fortify their resume and spot in the field with the loss to Maryland. Its not so much the loss hurt the metrics all that much, its that now the Knights have dropped 3 of 4 and have put pressure on themselves to win games down the stretch. General thinking is a win over Indiana and the over bottom feeding Nebraska will lock the Knights in...or a loss to Indiana followed by wins at Nebby and a Q1 win at Minnesota. Lot of good on the resume and no one can take that away. The win at Maryland now looks even better but their true feather in their cap win was the home win over projected 2 seed Illinois. Add in wins over Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota and RU has 5 wins over NCAA projected teams. While the Knights may not be passing the eye test right now, if they do what they should be able to do, the metrics hold up surprisingly well versus schools below them.
5. (29) FLORIDA 11-6: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 3-2, road 3-4, SOS 54
Gators are not quite there yet. Leading their profile is a big road win at WVU, a non conference win most schools do not have. Toss in SEC wins over Tennessee and LSU. Now those are the only 3 quality wins though and there are some sketchy losses in the SEC to Kentucky, Miss St and So Carolina (Q3) that drag down the profile. With road trips to Auburn/Kentucky this week before finishing up with Missouri, UF has to avoid more landmines. One would think 2 out of 3 in this stretch should be enough given uncertainty on any rescheduling in the SEC including a game with Tennessee.
6. (28) LSU 14-6: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 3-0, road 3-4, SOS 17
Tigers seem to be peaking down the stretch and the metrics are rising. Still their 6 Q1/2 wins show just two wins vs tourney teams in Tennessee and Arkansas. While there is a loss to Kentucky which counts as Q1! this is a pretty clean profile and the SOS number is strong. LSU will just need to take care of business like RU and Florida. Road trips to Georgia and Arkansas this week before finishing with Vandy. 2 out of 3 will do it for them without needing anything additional in the SEC tourney.
(11) LOYOLA CHICAGO 17-4: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 4-2, road 8-3, SOS 142
Ramblers are projected as the AQ from the Missouri Valley but continue to get the needed wins to remain an attractive at large if they fail to win the MVC tourney. Looks like if they take care of the two games vs So Illinois to close out the regular season, Loyola will likely dance either way. The win at Drake earlier plus the strong overall NET number should be enough to carry them through.
NINE SEEDS
(32) BOISE STATE 17-4: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-2, road 4-4, SOS 83
Broncs swept a pair vs Utah State that vaulted them into first place in the MWC and the projected AQ spot. However they remain a strong at large choice now and those two wins desperately gave them some needed Q2 wins. Big trip to fellow bubble San Diego State looms this week. So much uncertainty in this conference with 3 schools jockeying for positioning. While it would be unfair to expect a sweep in San Diego, doing that would lock up their bid no matter what. Gaining a split would be important. Beyond the Utah State wins, there is a split with Colorado State and a win at BYU. The latter is huge since the other MWC bubbles do not have a OOC win like that. BSU likely would want back one of those two losses at Nevada. Keep in mind 13 of their 17 wins are beyond Q1/2, a pretty high number for a tourney team.
7. (22) COLORADO 17-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 6-0, 3 Q3 losses, road 6-6, SOS 89
Buffs have a great overall NET but some big red flags that indicate they are not safe. A whopping 3 Quad 3 losses include a home loss to Utah and losses to Pac 12 sisters of the poor Washington and Cal. Biggest win remains the road win at USC and there is a win over bubble Oregon. Yet the sweep of Stanford is looking less impressive as the Cardinal are no longer projected in the field. The good news is USC and UCLA come calling this week. A win in either of them would stabilize the profile for now although it would do the Buffalo well to also win at Utah to lock things up before the Pac 12 tournament.
8. (24) SAN DIEGO STATE 16-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 4-1, road 5-2, SOS 68
Aztecs took care of business in Fresno stretching their win streak to 8 and now it comes down to their 2 game homestand with Boise. A sweep of the Broncs would lock them in regardless of what happens in the MWC tourney. Metrics are too strong to deny. There is a non conference win over UCLA and a split with Colorado State. 2 losses at Utah State won't hurt if they complete this sweep. At least a split is required to keep pace with Boise and Colorado and all the other bubbles elsewhere. Getting swept could send the Aztecs to the last 4 in line which is a precarious place to be heading into tourney time. Still thinking the Mountain West conference tourney is going to be wild. Interesting to watch this week and next play out.
9. (33) NORTH CAROLINA 14-7: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 6-1, road 3-6, SOS 42
Tar Heels moved from just out to 9 seed with just a win over Louisville. Goes to show you how tight the gradient is from the bubble to the 9 seeds this year. That win was by 45 and of course it resulted in a big jump in the overall NET. Yet it was only a Quad 2 win and the Heels with just one Q1 probably need to get another one at some point to feel safe. The good news is their sole Q1 win at Duke looking better and a good one to have in their back pocket as the Blue Devils have turned their season around. Next best wins are Stanford/Syracuse both schools projected out of the field so in reality UNC has just one win over a projected tourney team at present time. FSU up next and it becomes a must win if they want to stay in a safe spot. Without this win, pressure is on as winning at Syracuse and beating Duke in the season finale become mandatory. Not sure of ACC rescheduling of postponed games so while Tar Heels are in a much better spot than last week, still a good amount of work to do.
TEN SEEDS
10. (42) UCLA 16-5: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 2-2, road 4-3, SOS 115
Bruins escaped disaster by eeking out a win over ASU over the weekend. The issue is while the overall mark is pretty good, there just is very little beef on the profile. Make note that 12 of their 16 wins are beyond Q1 and 2 and that is reflected in the poor SOS. Their resume is highlighted by a win over Colorado. That is not too good folks. Yes a sweep of Arizona who may or may not have been a bubble school if eligible but this simply isnt good enough. Losses to bubbles San Diego State and Stanford do not help. If the Bruins are to remain in the field they will have to make hay with a schedule that gives them the opportunity. A trap game at Utah looms before a home tilt with Colorado and a rescheduled game at Oregon and the season finale with rival USC. With 3 Quad 3 opportunities, the thinking is they will need to annex 2 of them if they want to remain comfortable heading into the Pac 12 tournament.
11. (53) LOUISVILLE 11-5: Q1: 0-4, Q2: 7-0, road 3-4, SOS 39
Not surprising it took only one 45 point loss for the Card profile to crumble. Not a good look for UL coming back from Covid but the loss further exposed a weak resume. Not only did the overall NET drop 20 plus spots but the 0-4 Q1 road mark now clearly sticks out. Nothing they can do about that now except try to get them down the stretch. There are some pretty good wins in Q2 they have to work with....Virginia Tech, surging Duke, bubble Seton Hall and CUSA AQ Western Kentucky. Still they do lack a quality road win so its likely that the Cards need to pick up probably two Q1 wins down the stretch. Cards have had 6 ACC games postponed that have yet to be rescheduled. Their final 4 games consist of Notre Dame and then road games at Va Tech/Duke before finishing with Virginia. Those are 3 Q1s right there and the pressure is on for them to win 2 of them or they likely bounce on the wrong side of the bubble.
12. (45) OREGON 14-5, Q1: 2-3, Q2: 4-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-2, SOS 116
Ducks will not get penalized for losing at USC last night but its just another missed opportunity to fortify their resume. Instead the Ducks continue to meander near the last 6 byes line where just one loss can send you into the last 4 in line. Ducks have some nice wins over Colorado, Arizona and key ones over Stanford and Seton Hall but these are not the type of wins that turn heads. Opportunity will come in the next two weeks. Rescheduled games with UCLA and Arizona at home plus the 3 road games at Cal, Stanford, and Oregon State. Wins vs UCLA and Stanford in bubble battles are going to be key for them but also avoiding potential bad losses on the road to Cal/OSU. The Ducks already suffered a costly Q3 losses at home to the Beavers and Washington State. Will be interesting to see the 3 school bubble brawl between UCLA/Stanford/Oregon play out as the regular season ends and Pac 12 tourney play begins.
(38) SAINT BONAVENTURE 11-3: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 3-0, road 3-3, SOS 51
Bona back in as A10 AQ for now after taking down Davidson. Now a return trip to Davidson looms. The A10 has done a poor job in trying to reschedule conference games as Covid really hit this conference hard. The Bonnies have just Dayton and Duquesne left on their schedule and no word if other games will be made up. Hard to assess the Bonnies at large chances and a few other A10 bubbles for that matter but the lack of games will be an issue IMO and not for the good. It is just not a good enough resume for an at large if they do not win the AQ. The two best wins are VCU and Richmond and nothing to speak of out of conference. Yes only 3 losses but one of those to URI. Better keep winning
ELEVEN SEEDS
13. (52) INDIANA 12-10: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 5-1, 2 Q2 losses, road 3-4, SOS 73
Hoosiers float back to a dangerous position because they could not take care of business vs Michigan State. The loss to Sparty was actually a Q3 loss for now but that may change but last week beating Minnesota while losing to MSU was a microcosm of the Archie Miller era. Seems like every year we find them here or just outside the field. What is concerning now isnt that that they do not have enough the quality wins (they do), its that they are now just 12-10 which raises the questions on how the NCAA will deal with schools hovering at 500 or just game or two above. Do not forget the sweep of Iowa is very very good to have in addition to the wins over Maryland, Minnesota, and Stanfod. Indiana is almost in must win mode at Rutgers who they themselves need that win. After that is a brutal stretch vs Michigan, a rescheduled game at Michigan State and a trip to Purdue, 4 Quad 1 opportunities (if MSU can move up) where the Hoosiers will be underdogs in all of them. If they can beat RU and MSU on the road, it at least gives them some need breathing space to stay on the right side of the bubble, they still may or may not need a Big 10 tourney win. If they go 1-3 in this stretch they are in serious trouble and likely need a trip to the Big 10 finals to get that at large. In total prove it mode now.
14. (60) MINNESOTA 13-10: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 1-0, road 0-8, SOS 12
No two ways around it, until the Gophers fix that 0-8 road mark, their NCAA chances remain on the brink. They failed to do so at Indiana last week and then got housed by Illinois at home. With injuries starting to factor in you wonder if Minny is on the verge of tanking the season. Minny has dropped 6 of 8 and 8 of their last 11. Yet in that string was an unlikely win over Michigan, the kind of win that overflows for weeks. Add in the earlier wins over Ohio State, Iowa and Purdue and their quality wins dwarf anyone on this entire analysis even up to the 7 seeds. Not many schools can boast two wins over projected #1 seed yet not many have zero wins on the road. A rescheduled game at Nebraska gives them a shot at their first followed by a trip to Penn State. Not exactly sure that winning at Nebby moves the needle so its likely that a win at Penn State is required. Before those are a game at home vs Northwestern which is a mandatory win at this juncture. The season finale sees them hosting RU in a game that both teams could need but if the Gophers do win the 3 prior games, not sure that they have to win that one. Its certainly an easier path ahead than Indiana but they simply might not be capable.
(68) WICHITA STATE 11-4: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-2, road 4-2, SOS 31
Shockers remain as the AAC AQ by virtue of their win over Houston but its becoming more likely that winning the AAC tourney may the only way to get a bid. Both games this week vs SMU have been cancelled due to Covid with SMU. That takes away a Q1 and a Q2 opportunity they really need because besides the Houston win there is just a win over fading Ole Miss. So of the 4 losses, 3 are to Houston, Missouri, and OK State so it shows the tough schedule. Ultimately a 20 point loss to Memphis might be their undoing. With just an 15 games played and two scheduled games remaining against dregs Tulane and Temple its difficult to make a strong case for the Wheat Shockers compared to other bubble schools.
15. (50) XAVIER 12-4; Q1: 1-1, Q2: 2-3, road 2-2, SOS 80
Musketeers took care of business vs Butler after a damaging loss to St Johns earlier in the week. With just 16 games played due to Covid postponements, their profile lags. The win over Oklahoma is enormous no doubt about it but but there is literally nothing else here. They have shockingly only played one other Q1 game, a loss to Creighton. That 3-5 Q1/2 mark is shockingly low. Losses to bubbles Seton Hall and UConn. I suppose a win over Toledo the projected MAC AQ is a solid win. Have not seen any word on rescheduled games for them so their final 4 remains ...road games at Providence, Gtown, Marquette and a home game vs Creighton. Creighton is the only quality win opportunity and is a must win but they will also need at least 2 on the road. Can they do this? If not a a trip to the Big East tourney finals may be their only shot.
TWELVE SEEDS
16. (51) SETON HALL 13-9: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 2-2, road 6-5, SOS 42
Pirates suffered a hideous loss at Georgetown, the kind that kills resumes this late in the season. In addition, the Big East profile just looks worse by the day. Only Nova and Creighton are considered quality wins at this point and the Pirates went 0-4 vs them. On the plus side, they did beat fellow bubble Xavier and fellow bubble UConn both on the road but reality is that these are their best wins of the season. The Q1 win over Penn State carries little value at this point. They will regret losses to URI, Providence and Gtown. Just one too many of them. Just 3 scheduled games remain..at Butler and then two big ones vs UConn and St Johns. Do the Pirates need all 3? Yes and while they would look very good, even all 3 not quite enough to lock them in given the climate. Just 2 of 3 continues the uncertainty given the mediocrity of the conference and that UConn still could be lurking.
17. (46) COLORADO STATE 13-4: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 1-1, road 5-3, SOS 37
Rams continue to be in holding pattern for more reasons than one. After their series with New Mexico was cancelled due to Covid issues with the Lobos, this weekend saw their series with Nevada knocked out because of Covid issues with the Wolfpack. Rams have not played since February 6 and just a two games homestand with bottom feeding Air Force. The Rams have just 3 conference losses which ties them with Boise, one loss by the Broncs and CSU would become the MWC AQ so things start to get interesting. While no OOC wins of note, Rams did what they had to...split with Boise and San Diego State and Utah State so with those 3 quality wins keeps them in the running for an at large. Do note that 10 of their 13 wins are to Q3 and 4 and that will become 12 of 15 after the Air Force series. Should be a wild time ahead in the Mountain West and reaching the finals is the best route for any MWC bubble.
18, (35) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 16-5: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 7-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-2, SOS 59
Rams were knocked out as the A10 AQ after a really bad loss in overtime to George Mason. In for now but its hard to see them sustaining this spot if they cannot run the table in the last 3...St Louis, at Davidson, at Dayton. A bit of an advantage at large wise over other A10 bubbles as they have avoided the covid pauses. The Q1 mark of 0-3 is a huge red flag and that will not be solved before the A10 semis at best. Highlights are a split at St Bonnies, a win over Richmond and non conference win over Utah State. This really is weak sauce given there are major conference schools who will have multiple chances to gain Q1 and 2 wins in the closing weeks.
19. (34) DRAKE 21-2: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-0, road 8-1, SOS 261
Took care of business vs Evansville and now just a trip to Bradley to close out the regular season before the MVC tourney. How far the Bulldogs have to go there is the question. Obviously they are a legit threat to win it all but the thinking is a trip to the finals vs Loyola will be good enough and perhaps even a semifinal trip. Whether accurate or not, the metrics are good for Drake and the MVC and the win over Loyola is a big part of that. Again just two losses, one to Loyola and the other an upset to Valpo. NCAA always likes to throw out a bone to one of the lessers with a gaudy record and this is your candidate right now.
WESTERN KENTUCKY
BELMONT
THIRTEEN SEEDS
CAL SANTA BARBARA
TOLEDO
WINTHROP
LIBERTY
FOURTEEN SEEDS
COLGATE
WRIGHT STATE
VERMONT
UNC GREENSBORO
FIFTEEN SEEDS
SIENA
EASTERN WASHINGTON
GRAND CANYON
SAM HOUSTON STATE
SIXTEEN SEEDS
JAMES MADISON
TEXAS STATE
NORFOLK STATE/WAGNER
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M/SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
OUT
20. (57) STANFORD 14-9: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 2-4, road 6-5, SOS 62
Cardinal have the biggest win of anyone outside the field (Alabama) but the fact that they are on the outside right even with 4 Q1 wins shows you the red flags here. For starters let's start with the nasty weekend overtime loss to Washington State. Its only a Q2 loss but Stanford already had two of these two other medicore to bad Q2 teams in Utah and Arizona State. Let's add in the 2 non conference losses to bubbles Indiana and North Carolina. A sweep of Arizona and a win over UCLA highlight the conference resume but note that 2 of those wins technically count as Q1 because they were played in Santa Cruz instead of Palo Alto. The up and downs of their profile mean they are in prove it mode. Next up is Oregon at home. Its a crucial bubble battle that could bounce them back in the field if they can also beat Oregon State. A trip to USC looms in the season finale might be too tall and order but provides another opportunity to right the ship.
21. (47) DUKE 11-8: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 4-3, road 3-4, SOS 66
Blue Devils were not even on this list last week but that is what happens when you score a Q1 win in a year of such a crummy bubble. The win over Virginia was their biggest of the season and made it possible for last nights win over Syracuse to matter. They handled the Orange with ease and now are well positioned to make a run. Of course easier said then done. The schedule is tough. Fading bubble Louisville is next before trips to longshot bubble Ga Tech and bubble in North Carolina. Two win in these 3 games should be enough to vault them in the field before conference tourneys begin although they may need one more in the ACC tourney for good measure. Virginia is still their only quad 1 win of worth sorry Notre Dame in Q1 name only. Their 2nd best win was Clemson. Note some negatives...3 pretty poor losses...Notre Dame, Pitt, and Miami. Note the big loss to bubble Michigan State. These are the reasons that Duke still has work to do to finish the job
22. (55) CONNECTICUT 10-6: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 1-2, road 4-3, SOS 61
Day by day the Huskies resume looks less impressive. You can only squeeze so much out of a win over USC. Yes there is a win over Xavier in there too but Providence and losing home games to St John's/SHU stick out. Just 10 wins on the season in a covid ravaged schedule. @ games vs Gtown, home to Marquette and a trip to SHU for a bubble matchup are left. Thinking is they may have to win them all at this point. Doable yet the inconsistency all season long says probably not.
23. (81) MICHIGAN STATE 11-9: Q1: 2-8, Q2: 3-0, road 3-6, SOS 194
Sparty is back at least on the fringes. Realistically its going to be a tough slog. The schedule is absolutely wicked. With just 2 Q1 wins...Duke and Indiana and another quality win in Rutgers, its a start but they need about 3 more quality wins. Well the last 6 breakdown into 5 Quad 1 games and a Q2. Two games vs Michigan, hosting Illinois and Ohio State, a trip to Maryland and a home game with Indiana. IF and its a big IF, the Spartans can split these 6, they will likely punch their dance ticket. Easiest path is beat Indiana, win at Maryland and shock the world against one of the Big 10's Big 3. By doing that all the warts on the resume, Q1 number, poor SOS, poor overall NET, failing the eyetest all go away. Its Izzo time but the horses just may not be there this time.
24. (49) GEORGIA TECH 11-8: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 4-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 2-5, SOS 71
There are things on this resume that are willing...3 very good wins that keep getting better. The Q1 win over Florida State and the 2 Q2s over Clemson and UNC. These wins alone would have put them in the field but its the issue with the Q3 losses. Just horrific losses at home to Mercer and Georgia State and if they miss the tournament you don't have to look hard for reasons why. Its now or never time for the Yellowjackets. With Duke and UNC surging, Ga Tech's hopes rest in their upcoming 3 game stretch at Va Tech, Syracuse and Duke. Probably have to win all 3 of these plus the season finale at Wake. One of the more intriguing resumes going forward.
25. (56) UTAH STATE 13-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 1-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-3, SOS 119
Aggies dropped two to Boise to not only fall out as the MWC AQ but land with a thud out of the field. Realistically its going to be a tough go for an at large bid. Realistically though, they have as good a shot as any of the other top 3 in league to win the conference tourney. Even if they make the finals and lose, not sure a case could be made, they would have 8 losses at that point and their are cleaner profiles in this league and in the A10. They did sweep San Diego State and split with Colorado State but the undoing and ultimate poison were the losses to S Dakota State and UNLV.
26. (54) SYRACUSE 13-7: Q1: 0-5, Q2: 3-1, road 2-6, SOS 129
The loss at Duke might have been their last hope. Overall the record and NET is not that bad for a bubble school especially from the ACC but there is literally nothing to see here. ZERO Q1 wins and everything hangs on a win over Virginia Tech. That is not good enough especially with 3 ACC bubbles putting forth much better profiles at this juncture. 2 losses to a bad Pitt says it all. Not to mention 10 of their 13 wins coming to Q3/4 is embarrassing for a ACC school. Yet the overall trash of the bubble right now means they are probalby 6th team out right now and with 3 quality win opportunities they still have a heartbeat. They would have to do what they have not done all year as of yet..win quality games...at Ga Tech, home to UNC and Clemson...do that and we will revisit. I will wait here.
27. (62) MISSISSIPPI 12-9: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 4-3, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-5, SOS 77
Ole Miss on its last legs. after a crushing home loss to Mississippi State. A couple of good wins vs Tennessee and Missouri simply isnt good enough given costly Q3 losses. Rebels will need to beat Missouri on the road and then also top Vandy and Kentucky to close the regular season. That still wouldnt be enough to put them into the field but it would at least position themselves that if they could make a run to the SEC semis they will have a strong case. Starts tonight but could end tonight
28. (58) RICHMOND 11-5: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 3-1, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-2, SOS 85
I just can't with the A10. A whole bunch of schools hit by Covid with not a lot of wins but not alot of losses either. A conference that apparently does not think its that important to reschedule as many games as possible. And a bunch of bubble schools just lacking the needed quality wins to make a solid NCAA at large resume. Look Richmond has a win over Sister Jean's Loyola but have done absolutely nothing besides that. Beating Kentucky really isnt anything especially this year especially when the Spiders have losses to Hofstra and Quad 4 La Salle on their sheet. Games against UMass, St Louis and St Joes remain and they will have to win all of them just to remain on the bubble. Advice...win the A10 tournament.
29. (48) SAINT LOUIS 11-4: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 1-1, road 1-3, SOS 265
Yes there are two pretty good wins here...LSU and St Bonnies. There is also a bad loss to La Salle and the Billikens are coming off of a 23 point drubbing by Dayton. That completes the sweep by the Flyers who are not even into contention for a bid so hard to make a case for St Louis in light of that. Just 15 games and a SOS of 265. Nothing short of running the table at VCU, Richmond and UMass keeps them in the discussion. Another one best served by winning the A10 tourney.
LAST 4 IN: DRAKE, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, COLORADO STATE, SETON HALL
FIRST 4 OUT: STANFORD, DUKE, CONNECTICUT, MICHIGAN STATE
I have locked up 18 of the 37 available at large bids all the way down to the first 7 seed. Let's dive into field and the pecking order......
ONE SEEDS
GONZAGA
BAYLOR
MICHIGAN
OHIO STATE
TWO SEEDS
ILLINOIS
ALABAMA
VILLANOVA
WEST VIRGINIA
THREE SEEDS
IOWA
HOUSTON
FLORIDA STATE
OKLAHOMA
FOUR SEEDS
TENNESSEE
KANSAS
VIRGINIA
USC
FIVE SEEDS
OKLAHOMA STATE
TEXAS TECH
MISSOURI
TEXAS
SIX SEEDS
WISCONSIN
PURDUE
CREIGHTON
CLEMSON
SEVEN SEEDS
VIRGINIA TECH
1. (21) BYU 16-5: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-2, road 7-2, SOS 28
All but academic here for the Cougars. Reshuffling of the schedule has them playing San Francisco and St Mary's to close the year. A win in either of them will be good enough at this point. Though they did not challenge the Zags this year, BYU will get rewarded for that 2nd place finish in the WCC. Road wins at solid Mountain West schools San Diego State and Utah State highlight the resume. Throw in a decent win to St Johns and the only real bad loss (still a Q2) was to Pepperdine. All the other metrics like sos and road mark are all in their favor.
2. (26) ARKANSAS 17-5: Q1: 4-4, Q2: 4-1, road 4-4, SOS 63
Razorbacks positioned well after winning 7 of their last 8. Quad total and overall metrics are perhaps a bit deceiving as a deeper dive shows just two wins of note. Best wins are Missouri and Florida. Yet wins vs Auburn/Kentucky are Q1 wins really in name only. The next best win is Ole Miss. Still, its a clean profile with no bad losses. Not sure of SEC rescheduling but Hogs probably just need one more down the stretch to make it academic. Bama and LSU of course are the biggest opportunities as they will raise the profile but a road win at SC would be enough to lock them.
3. (30) MARYLAND 13-10: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 1-1, road 4-5, SOS 29
No school has flown up the charts as stealth and as swift as the Terps. Left for dead early in the season, they did spring some upsets over Wisconsin and Illinois. Yet they still could not push their overall mark over 500 until last week when they won 4 times in 8 days. The win over Rutgers was enormous putting them 3 games over 500 with a fairly soft schedule ahead. In addition to the aforementioned wins were wins over Purdue and a sweep of fading bubble Minnesota. No bad losses and a strong SOS scream yes. The fact that losing to #31 Rutgers at home is their worst loss by the metrics is sick! Metrics all justifying this type of seeding right now. Just need to take care of business with Mich St/Penn State at home and trip to Northwestern. Win 2 of 3 and they are locked and loaded. Lose 2 of 3 and they will need a Big 10 tourney win.
EIGHT SEEDS
4. (31) RUTGERS 12-9: Q1: 4-8, Q2: 3-1, road 3-5, SOS 21
Scarlet Knights missed an opportunity to fortify their resume and spot in the field with the loss to Maryland. Its not so much the loss hurt the metrics all that much, its that now the Knights have dropped 3 of 4 and have put pressure on themselves to win games down the stretch. General thinking is a win over Indiana and the over bottom feeding Nebraska will lock the Knights in...or a loss to Indiana followed by wins at Nebby and a Q1 win at Minnesota. Lot of good on the resume and no one can take that away. The win at Maryland now looks even better but their true feather in their cap win was the home win over projected 2 seed Illinois. Add in wins over Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota and RU has 5 wins over NCAA projected teams. While the Knights may not be passing the eye test right now, if they do what they should be able to do, the metrics hold up surprisingly well versus schools below them.
5. (29) FLORIDA 11-6: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 3-2, road 3-4, SOS 54
Gators are not quite there yet. Leading their profile is a big road win at WVU, a non conference win most schools do not have. Toss in SEC wins over Tennessee and LSU. Now those are the only 3 quality wins though and there are some sketchy losses in the SEC to Kentucky, Miss St and So Carolina (Q3) that drag down the profile. With road trips to Auburn/Kentucky this week before finishing up with Missouri, UF has to avoid more landmines. One would think 2 out of 3 in this stretch should be enough given uncertainty on any rescheduling in the SEC including a game with Tennessee.
6. (28) LSU 14-6: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 3-0, road 3-4, SOS 17
Tigers seem to be peaking down the stretch and the metrics are rising. Still their 6 Q1/2 wins show just two wins vs tourney teams in Tennessee and Arkansas. While there is a loss to Kentucky which counts as Q1! this is a pretty clean profile and the SOS number is strong. LSU will just need to take care of business like RU and Florida. Road trips to Georgia and Arkansas this week before finishing with Vandy. 2 out of 3 will do it for them without needing anything additional in the SEC tourney.
(11) LOYOLA CHICAGO 17-4: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 4-2, road 8-3, SOS 142
Ramblers are projected as the AQ from the Missouri Valley but continue to get the needed wins to remain an attractive at large if they fail to win the MVC tourney. Looks like if they take care of the two games vs So Illinois to close out the regular season, Loyola will likely dance either way. The win at Drake earlier plus the strong overall NET number should be enough to carry them through.
NINE SEEDS
(32) BOISE STATE 17-4: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-2, road 4-4, SOS 83
Broncs swept a pair vs Utah State that vaulted them into first place in the MWC and the projected AQ spot. However they remain a strong at large choice now and those two wins desperately gave them some needed Q2 wins. Big trip to fellow bubble San Diego State looms this week. So much uncertainty in this conference with 3 schools jockeying for positioning. While it would be unfair to expect a sweep in San Diego, doing that would lock up their bid no matter what. Gaining a split would be important. Beyond the Utah State wins, there is a split with Colorado State and a win at BYU. The latter is huge since the other MWC bubbles do not have a OOC win like that. BSU likely would want back one of those two losses at Nevada. Keep in mind 13 of their 17 wins are beyond Q1/2, a pretty high number for a tourney team.
7. (22) COLORADO 17-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 6-0, 3 Q3 losses, road 6-6, SOS 89
Buffs have a great overall NET but some big red flags that indicate they are not safe. A whopping 3 Quad 3 losses include a home loss to Utah and losses to Pac 12 sisters of the poor Washington and Cal. Biggest win remains the road win at USC and there is a win over bubble Oregon. Yet the sweep of Stanford is looking less impressive as the Cardinal are no longer projected in the field. The good news is USC and UCLA come calling this week. A win in either of them would stabilize the profile for now although it would do the Buffalo well to also win at Utah to lock things up before the Pac 12 tournament.
8. (24) SAN DIEGO STATE 16-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 4-1, road 5-2, SOS 68
Aztecs took care of business in Fresno stretching their win streak to 8 and now it comes down to their 2 game homestand with Boise. A sweep of the Broncs would lock them in regardless of what happens in the MWC tourney. Metrics are too strong to deny. There is a non conference win over UCLA and a split with Colorado State. 2 losses at Utah State won't hurt if they complete this sweep. At least a split is required to keep pace with Boise and Colorado and all the other bubbles elsewhere. Getting swept could send the Aztecs to the last 4 in line which is a precarious place to be heading into tourney time. Still thinking the Mountain West conference tourney is going to be wild. Interesting to watch this week and next play out.
9. (33) NORTH CAROLINA 14-7: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 6-1, road 3-6, SOS 42
Tar Heels moved from just out to 9 seed with just a win over Louisville. Goes to show you how tight the gradient is from the bubble to the 9 seeds this year. That win was by 45 and of course it resulted in a big jump in the overall NET. Yet it was only a Quad 2 win and the Heels with just one Q1 probably need to get another one at some point to feel safe. The good news is their sole Q1 win at Duke looking better and a good one to have in their back pocket as the Blue Devils have turned their season around. Next best wins are Stanford/Syracuse both schools projected out of the field so in reality UNC has just one win over a projected tourney team at present time. FSU up next and it becomes a must win if they want to stay in a safe spot. Without this win, pressure is on as winning at Syracuse and beating Duke in the season finale become mandatory. Not sure of ACC rescheduling of postponed games so while Tar Heels are in a much better spot than last week, still a good amount of work to do.
TEN SEEDS
10. (42) UCLA 16-5: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 2-2, road 4-3, SOS 115
Bruins escaped disaster by eeking out a win over ASU over the weekend. The issue is while the overall mark is pretty good, there just is very little beef on the profile. Make note that 12 of their 16 wins are beyond Q1 and 2 and that is reflected in the poor SOS. Their resume is highlighted by a win over Colorado. That is not too good folks. Yes a sweep of Arizona who may or may not have been a bubble school if eligible but this simply isnt good enough. Losses to bubbles San Diego State and Stanford do not help. If the Bruins are to remain in the field they will have to make hay with a schedule that gives them the opportunity. A trap game at Utah looms before a home tilt with Colorado and a rescheduled game at Oregon and the season finale with rival USC. With 3 Quad 3 opportunities, the thinking is they will need to annex 2 of them if they want to remain comfortable heading into the Pac 12 tournament.
11. (53) LOUISVILLE 11-5: Q1: 0-4, Q2: 7-0, road 3-4, SOS 39
Not surprising it took only one 45 point loss for the Card profile to crumble. Not a good look for UL coming back from Covid but the loss further exposed a weak resume. Not only did the overall NET drop 20 plus spots but the 0-4 Q1 road mark now clearly sticks out. Nothing they can do about that now except try to get them down the stretch. There are some pretty good wins in Q2 they have to work with....Virginia Tech, surging Duke, bubble Seton Hall and CUSA AQ Western Kentucky. Still they do lack a quality road win so its likely that the Cards need to pick up probably two Q1 wins down the stretch. Cards have had 6 ACC games postponed that have yet to be rescheduled. Their final 4 games consist of Notre Dame and then road games at Va Tech/Duke before finishing with Virginia. Those are 3 Q1s right there and the pressure is on for them to win 2 of them or they likely bounce on the wrong side of the bubble.
12. (45) OREGON 14-5, Q1: 2-3, Q2: 4-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-2, SOS 116
Ducks will not get penalized for losing at USC last night but its just another missed opportunity to fortify their resume. Instead the Ducks continue to meander near the last 6 byes line where just one loss can send you into the last 4 in line. Ducks have some nice wins over Colorado, Arizona and key ones over Stanford and Seton Hall but these are not the type of wins that turn heads. Opportunity will come in the next two weeks. Rescheduled games with UCLA and Arizona at home plus the 3 road games at Cal, Stanford, and Oregon State. Wins vs UCLA and Stanford in bubble battles are going to be key for them but also avoiding potential bad losses on the road to Cal/OSU. The Ducks already suffered a costly Q3 losses at home to the Beavers and Washington State. Will be interesting to see the 3 school bubble brawl between UCLA/Stanford/Oregon play out as the regular season ends and Pac 12 tourney play begins.
(38) SAINT BONAVENTURE 11-3: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 3-0, road 3-3, SOS 51
Bona back in as A10 AQ for now after taking down Davidson. Now a return trip to Davidson looms. The A10 has done a poor job in trying to reschedule conference games as Covid really hit this conference hard. The Bonnies have just Dayton and Duquesne left on their schedule and no word if other games will be made up. Hard to assess the Bonnies at large chances and a few other A10 bubbles for that matter but the lack of games will be an issue IMO and not for the good. It is just not a good enough resume for an at large if they do not win the AQ. The two best wins are VCU and Richmond and nothing to speak of out of conference. Yes only 3 losses but one of those to URI. Better keep winning
ELEVEN SEEDS
13. (52) INDIANA 12-10: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 5-1, 2 Q2 losses, road 3-4, SOS 73
Hoosiers float back to a dangerous position because they could not take care of business vs Michigan State. The loss to Sparty was actually a Q3 loss for now but that may change but last week beating Minnesota while losing to MSU was a microcosm of the Archie Miller era. Seems like every year we find them here or just outside the field. What is concerning now isnt that that they do not have enough the quality wins (they do), its that they are now just 12-10 which raises the questions on how the NCAA will deal with schools hovering at 500 or just game or two above. Do not forget the sweep of Iowa is very very good to have in addition to the wins over Maryland, Minnesota, and Stanfod. Indiana is almost in must win mode at Rutgers who they themselves need that win. After that is a brutal stretch vs Michigan, a rescheduled game at Michigan State and a trip to Purdue, 4 Quad 1 opportunities (if MSU can move up) where the Hoosiers will be underdogs in all of them. If they can beat RU and MSU on the road, it at least gives them some need breathing space to stay on the right side of the bubble, they still may or may not need a Big 10 tourney win. If they go 1-3 in this stretch they are in serious trouble and likely need a trip to the Big 10 finals to get that at large. In total prove it mode now.
14. (60) MINNESOTA 13-10: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 1-0, road 0-8, SOS 12
No two ways around it, until the Gophers fix that 0-8 road mark, their NCAA chances remain on the brink. They failed to do so at Indiana last week and then got housed by Illinois at home. With injuries starting to factor in you wonder if Minny is on the verge of tanking the season. Minny has dropped 6 of 8 and 8 of their last 11. Yet in that string was an unlikely win over Michigan, the kind of win that overflows for weeks. Add in the earlier wins over Ohio State, Iowa and Purdue and their quality wins dwarf anyone on this entire analysis even up to the 7 seeds. Not many schools can boast two wins over projected #1 seed yet not many have zero wins on the road. A rescheduled game at Nebraska gives them a shot at their first followed by a trip to Penn State. Not exactly sure that winning at Nebby moves the needle so its likely that a win at Penn State is required. Before those are a game at home vs Northwestern which is a mandatory win at this juncture. The season finale sees them hosting RU in a game that both teams could need but if the Gophers do win the 3 prior games, not sure that they have to win that one. Its certainly an easier path ahead than Indiana but they simply might not be capable.
(68) WICHITA STATE 11-4: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-2, road 4-2, SOS 31
Shockers remain as the AAC AQ by virtue of their win over Houston but its becoming more likely that winning the AAC tourney may the only way to get a bid. Both games this week vs SMU have been cancelled due to Covid with SMU. That takes away a Q1 and a Q2 opportunity they really need because besides the Houston win there is just a win over fading Ole Miss. So of the 4 losses, 3 are to Houston, Missouri, and OK State so it shows the tough schedule. Ultimately a 20 point loss to Memphis might be their undoing. With just an 15 games played and two scheduled games remaining against dregs Tulane and Temple its difficult to make a strong case for the Wheat Shockers compared to other bubble schools.
15. (50) XAVIER 12-4; Q1: 1-1, Q2: 2-3, road 2-2, SOS 80
Musketeers took care of business vs Butler after a damaging loss to St Johns earlier in the week. With just 16 games played due to Covid postponements, their profile lags. The win over Oklahoma is enormous no doubt about it but but there is literally nothing else here. They have shockingly only played one other Q1 game, a loss to Creighton. That 3-5 Q1/2 mark is shockingly low. Losses to bubbles Seton Hall and UConn. I suppose a win over Toledo the projected MAC AQ is a solid win. Have not seen any word on rescheduled games for them so their final 4 remains ...road games at Providence, Gtown, Marquette and a home game vs Creighton. Creighton is the only quality win opportunity and is a must win but they will also need at least 2 on the road. Can they do this? If not a a trip to the Big East tourney finals may be their only shot.
TWELVE SEEDS
16. (51) SETON HALL 13-9: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 2-2, road 6-5, SOS 42
Pirates suffered a hideous loss at Georgetown, the kind that kills resumes this late in the season. In addition, the Big East profile just looks worse by the day. Only Nova and Creighton are considered quality wins at this point and the Pirates went 0-4 vs them. On the plus side, they did beat fellow bubble Xavier and fellow bubble UConn both on the road but reality is that these are their best wins of the season. The Q1 win over Penn State carries little value at this point. They will regret losses to URI, Providence and Gtown. Just one too many of them. Just 3 scheduled games remain..at Butler and then two big ones vs UConn and St Johns. Do the Pirates need all 3? Yes and while they would look very good, even all 3 not quite enough to lock them in given the climate. Just 2 of 3 continues the uncertainty given the mediocrity of the conference and that UConn still could be lurking.
17. (46) COLORADO STATE 13-4: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 1-1, road 5-3, SOS 37
Rams continue to be in holding pattern for more reasons than one. After their series with New Mexico was cancelled due to Covid issues with the Lobos, this weekend saw their series with Nevada knocked out because of Covid issues with the Wolfpack. Rams have not played since February 6 and just a two games homestand with bottom feeding Air Force. The Rams have just 3 conference losses which ties them with Boise, one loss by the Broncs and CSU would become the MWC AQ so things start to get interesting. While no OOC wins of note, Rams did what they had to...split with Boise and San Diego State and Utah State so with those 3 quality wins keeps them in the running for an at large. Do note that 10 of their 13 wins are to Q3 and 4 and that will become 12 of 15 after the Air Force series. Should be a wild time ahead in the Mountain West and reaching the finals is the best route for any MWC bubble.
18, (35) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 16-5: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 7-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-2, SOS 59
Rams were knocked out as the A10 AQ after a really bad loss in overtime to George Mason. In for now but its hard to see them sustaining this spot if they cannot run the table in the last 3...St Louis, at Davidson, at Dayton. A bit of an advantage at large wise over other A10 bubbles as they have avoided the covid pauses. The Q1 mark of 0-3 is a huge red flag and that will not be solved before the A10 semis at best. Highlights are a split at St Bonnies, a win over Richmond and non conference win over Utah State. This really is weak sauce given there are major conference schools who will have multiple chances to gain Q1 and 2 wins in the closing weeks.
19. (34) DRAKE 21-2: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-0, road 8-1, SOS 261
Took care of business vs Evansville and now just a trip to Bradley to close out the regular season before the MVC tourney. How far the Bulldogs have to go there is the question. Obviously they are a legit threat to win it all but the thinking is a trip to the finals vs Loyola will be good enough and perhaps even a semifinal trip. Whether accurate or not, the metrics are good for Drake and the MVC and the win over Loyola is a big part of that. Again just two losses, one to Loyola and the other an upset to Valpo. NCAA always likes to throw out a bone to one of the lessers with a gaudy record and this is your candidate right now.
WESTERN KENTUCKY
BELMONT
THIRTEEN SEEDS
CAL SANTA BARBARA
TOLEDO
WINTHROP
LIBERTY
FOURTEEN SEEDS
COLGATE
WRIGHT STATE
VERMONT
UNC GREENSBORO
FIFTEEN SEEDS
SIENA
EASTERN WASHINGTON
GRAND CANYON
SAM HOUSTON STATE
SIXTEEN SEEDS
JAMES MADISON
TEXAS STATE
NORFOLK STATE/WAGNER
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M/SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
OUT
20. (57) STANFORD 14-9: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 2-4, road 6-5, SOS 62
Cardinal have the biggest win of anyone outside the field (Alabama) but the fact that they are on the outside right even with 4 Q1 wins shows you the red flags here. For starters let's start with the nasty weekend overtime loss to Washington State. Its only a Q2 loss but Stanford already had two of these two other medicore to bad Q2 teams in Utah and Arizona State. Let's add in the 2 non conference losses to bubbles Indiana and North Carolina. A sweep of Arizona and a win over UCLA highlight the conference resume but note that 2 of those wins technically count as Q1 because they were played in Santa Cruz instead of Palo Alto. The up and downs of their profile mean they are in prove it mode. Next up is Oregon at home. Its a crucial bubble battle that could bounce them back in the field if they can also beat Oregon State. A trip to USC looms in the season finale might be too tall and order but provides another opportunity to right the ship.
21. (47) DUKE 11-8: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 4-3, road 3-4, SOS 66
Blue Devils were not even on this list last week but that is what happens when you score a Q1 win in a year of such a crummy bubble. The win over Virginia was their biggest of the season and made it possible for last nights win over Syracuse to matter. They handled the Orange with ease and now are well positioned to make a run. Of course easier said then done. The schedule is tough. Fading bubble Louisville is next before trips to longshot bubble Ga Tech and bubble in North Carolina. Two win in these 3 games should be enough to vault them in the field before conference tourneys begin although they may need one more in the ACC tourney for good measure. Virginia is still their only quad 1 win of worth sorry Notre Dame in Q1 name only. Their 2nd best win was Clemson. Note some negatives...3 pretty poor losses...Notre Dame, Pitt, and Miami. Note the big loss to bubble Michigan State. These are the reasons that Duke still has work to do to finish the job
22. (55) CONNECTICUT 10-6: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 1-2, road 4-3, SOS 61
Day by day the Huskies resume looks less impressive. You can only squeeze so much out of a win over USC. Yes there is a win over Xavier in there too but Providence and losing home games to St John's/SHU stick out. Just 10 wins on the season in a covid ravaged schedule. @ games vs Gtown, home to Marquette and a trip to SHU for a bubble matchup are left. Thinking is they may have to win them all at this point. Doable yet the inconsistency all season long says probably not.
23. (81) MICHIGAN STATE 11-9: Q1: 2-8, Q2: 3-0, road 3-6, SOS 194
Sparty is back at least on the fringes. Realistically its going to be a tough slog. The schedule is absolutely wicked. With just 2 Q1 wins...Duke and Indiana and another quality win in Rutgers, its a start but they need about 3 more quality wins. Well the last 6 breakdown into 5 Quad 1 games and a Q2. Two games vs Michigan, hosting Illinois and Ohio State, a trip to Maryland and a home game with Indiana. IF and its a big IF, the Spartans can split these 6, they will likely punch their dance ticket. Easiest path is beat Indiana, win at Maryland and shock the world against one of the Big 10's Big 3. By doing that all the warts on the resume, Q1 number, poor SOS, poor overall NET, failing the eyetest all go away. Its Izzo time but the horses just may not be there this time.
24. (49) GEORGIA TECH 11-8: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 4-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 2-5, SOS 71
There are things on this resume that are willing...3 very good wins that keep getting better. The Q1 win over Florida State and the 2 Q2s over Clemson and UNC. These wins alone would have put them in the field but its the issue with the Q3 losses. Just horrific losses at home to Mercer and Georgia State and if they miss the tournament you don't have to look hard for reasons why. Its now or never time for the Yellowjackets. With Duke and UNC surging, Ga Tech's hopes rest in their upcoming 3 game stretch at Va Tech, Syracuse and Duke. Probably have to win all 3 of these plus the season finale at Wake. One of the more intriguing resumes going forward.
25. (56) UTAH STATE 13-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 1-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-3, SOS 119
Aggies dropped two to Boise to not only fall out as the MWC AQ but land with a thud out of the field. Realistically its going to be a tough go for an at large bid. Realistically though, they have as good a shot as any of the other top 3 in league to win the conference tourney. Even if they make the finals and lose, not sure a case could be made, they would have 8 losses at that point and their are cleaner profiles in this league and in the A10. They did sweep San Diego State and split with Colorado State but the undoing and ultimate poison were the losses to S Dakota State and UNLV.
26. (54) SYRACUSE 13-7: Q1: 0-5, Q2: 3-1, road 2-6, SOS 129
The loss at Duke might have been their last hope. Overall the record and NET is not that bad for a bubble school especially from the ACC but there is literally nothing to see here. ZERO Q1 wins and everything hangs on a win over Virginia Tech. That is not good enough especially with 3 ACC bubbles putting forth much better profiles at this juncture. 2 losses to a bad Pitt says it all. Not to mention 10 of their 13 wins coming to Q3/4 is embarrassing for a ACC school. Yet the overall trash of the bubble right now means they are probalby 6th team out right now and with 3 quality win opportunities they still have a heartbeat. They would have to do what they have not done all year as of yet..win quality games...at Ga Tech, home to UNC and Clemson...do that and we will revisit. I will wait here.
27. (62) MISSISSIPPI 12-9: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 4-3, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-5, SOS 77
Ole Miss on its last legs. after a crushing home loss to Mississippi State. A couple of good wins vs Tennessee and Missouri simply isnt good enough given costly Q3 losses. Rebels will need to beat Missouri on the road and then also top Vandy and Kentucky to close the regular season. That still wouldnt be enough to put them into the field but it would at least position themselves that if they could make a run to the SEC semis they will have a strong case. Starts tonight but could end tonight
28. (58) RICHMOND 11-5: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 3-1, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-2, SOS 85
I just can't with the A10. A whole bunch of schools hit by Covid with not a lot of wins but not alot of losses either. A conference that apparently does not think its that important to reschedule as many games as possible. And a bunch of bubble schools just lacking the needed quality wins to make a solid NCAA at large resume. Look Richmond has a win over Sister Jean's Loyola but have done absolutely nothing besides that. Beating Kentucky really isnt anything especially this year especially when the Spiders have losses to Hofstra and Quad 4 La Salle on their sheet. Games against UMass, St Louis and St Joes remain and they will have to win all of them just to remain on the bubble. Advice...win the A10 tournament.
29. (48) SAINT LOUIS 11-4: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 1-1, road 1-3, SOS 265
Yes there are two pretty good wins here...LSU and St Bonnies. There is also a bad loss to La Salle and the Billikens are coming off of a 23 point drubbing by Dayton. That completes the sweep by the Flyers who are not even into contention for a bid so hard to make a case for St Louis in light of that. Just 15 games and a SOS of 265. Nothing short of running the table at VCU, Richmond and UMass keeps them in the discussion. Another one best served by winning the A10 tourney.
LAST 4 IN: DRAKE, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, COLORADO STATE, SETON HALL
FIRST 4 OUT: STANFORD, DUKE, CONNECTICUT, MICHIGAN STATE