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2/23 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

And yes, that means I am optomistic that we don't fold and talk about just hoping to make the tourney.
 
sorry but De Courcy putting RU at 11 before tonight in his bracket is just bad analysis from him. He is not very good

He has Oregon and UCLA 7s...this is a complete homer job given Fox has PAC 12 games.

Xavier and SHU in as 11s..you can see the shilling for BE and Pac 12...BE is not getting 5

also has Stanford and UConn in the field and Minnesota out as of today along with Duke and doesnt even have Ga Tech or MSU in first 4 out
 
North Carolina is going to absolutely regret scheduling a home game vs Marquette this week....they are down double digits...it will be a damaging Q3 loss if it holds
 
SHU may be out now. UConn?
Bama bad loss for seed.
UVA bad loss for seed.
UNC bad loss.
Xavier bad loss.
Clemson moving up.
FSU moving up.
Georgia alive.
Memphis alive. SMU alive Wichita alive
Bonnies alive
RU is in today!!!
 
so recapping tonight.....

RU wins of course giving RU another Q2 win...now 9-9 vs the first two quads. We will see how everything shakes out and if RU needs another win. The profile is clean right now so i wouldnt want to sully it up with a bad loss. I would say RU needs a half of a win

The loss was a big blow to Indiana. Will figure out tomorrow just where they sit but its certainly not good right now.

Another loss for Virginia. They are locked in but their seed could really plummet if they do not snap out of it. Also note that their losing is going to effect schools using Virginia as their best wins. Its looking just like a good win instead of a very good win. Just something to note when trying to seperate bubbles. Little things like this matter.

Ditto for Alabama who loses to Arkansas. Its a quality loss though but Bama was fortifying that 2 seed and now its in doubt. The win for Arkansas locks the Razorbacks in as they float to 6 or maybe even 5 spot soon.

the UNC loss at home by double digits to Marquette was horrible for them. Why they scheduled it I have no idea, the win really wouldnt have helped them and now the loss raises questions. Still in but the resume now is dinged and we shall see where the NET goes

Seton Hall loses at Butler, I took the Pirates out of the field this morning and this puts them even further out. Just do not have an impressive resume and too many bad losses. Compare them to Michigan State and Duke or even Indiana, its not even close

Xavier loses at Providence...another one that I took out this morning and their loss today confirms they are not a tourney team. The benefactor of this is UConn and if they finish strong they will be the 4th BE school to get in.

Florida State could be inching to a 2 seed with the Bama loss

Tennessee, Clemson and Creighton got wins vs patsies to keep their seeding in place.

as mentioned before, St Bonnies beats Davidson to firm up their AQ position in the A10.
 
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My current guesstimate for RU:

0 more wins = 10 or 11 seed
1 more win = 7 or 8 seed
2 more wins = 6 or 7 seed
3 more wins = 5 or 6 seed

Really hoping we can snag 2 more Ws (including B1GT) to lock up a 7 seed or higher and avoid the dreaded 8/9 matchup.
 
sorry but De Courcy putting RU at 11 before tonight in his bracket is just bad analysis from him. He is not very good

He has Oregon and UCLA 7s...this is a complete homer job given Fox has PAC 12 games.

Xavier and SHU in as 11s..you can see the shilling for BE and Pac 12...BE is not getting 5

also has Stanford and UConn in the field and Minnesota out as of today along with Duke and doesnt even have Ga Tech or MSU in first 4 out
He dropped us 3 seed lines for the Maryland loss, I believe. Just stupid. I've been following him for a long time and he's prone to lapses in logic.

I think if RU were finishing out with, along with A-Minnesota, instead of A-Nebraska something like A-Purdue, H-Michigan, or A- one of the mid tier teams they've already played away, RU would not need another win - none of those losses would hurt enough including A-Minn. But if they lose at Nebraska that dings the resume, perhaps enough to keep them out (but I'd still take even odds at least for a first four spot). So they've done enough to get in as of now, but losing 3 straight now would leave it in very subjective hands.
 
He dropped us 3 seed lines for the Maryland loss, I believe. Just stupid. I've been following him for a long time and he's prone to lapses in logic.

I think if RU were finishing out with, along with A-Minnesota, instead of A-Nebraska something like A-Purdue, H-Michigan, or A- one of the mid tier teams they've already played away, RU would not need another win - none of those losses would hurt enough including A-Minn. But if they lose at Nebraska that dings the resume, perhaps enough to keep them out (but I'd still take even odds at least for a first four spot). So they've done enough to get in as of now, but losing 3 straight now would leave it in very subjective hands.

as I said I think bias, he had all 3 of SHU/Xavier/Uconn in and well 2 of those lost tonight and you cannot even make a case he had them seeded the same or better than RU..thats bizarre

and too high seedings for UCLA and Oregon. He is guilty of the same things I see that Jerry Palm does with SEC and A10 and what Lunardi does with ACC and Big 12.
 
as I said I think bias, he had all 3 of SHU/Xavier/Uconn in and well 2 of those lost tonight and you cannot even make a case he had them seeded the same or better than RU..thats bizarre

and too high seedings for UCLA and Oregon. He is guilty of the same things I see that Jerry Palm does with SEC and A10 and what Lunardi does with ACC and Big 12.
I'd never put it past a network to give their product a nudge. He's at least partially affiliated with BTN though, right? Haven't seen him in the studio this year but certainly there a lot last year and they're still a Fox station using his bracket projections exclusively.

When he was with the Sporting News I remember reading his opinion piece on B1G expansion trying to say that PSU's presence in NYC meant that RU wouldn't add anything significant. Lapses in logic. He's a friendly enough guy and will answer fans on Twitter more often than not, but that's just given me more opportunities to see him lob crappy arguments out there.
 
I'd never put it past a network to give their product a nudge. He's at least partially affiliated with BTN though, right? Haven't seen him in the studio this year but certainly there a lot last year and they're still a Fox station using his bracket projections exclusively.

When he was with the Sporting News I remember reading his opinion piece on B1G expansion trying to say that PSU's presence in NYC meant that RU wouldn't add anything significant. Lapses in logic. He's a friendly enough guy and will answer fans on Twitter more often than not, but that's just given me more opportunities to see him lob crappy arguments out there.


seems to really be in the BTN studio much less than other years I noticed. Relying on Andy Katz more. Its weird but I dont like FOX for college hoops. While they have some very good announcers...and alot from the Big 10 like Bardo and Jimmy Jackson is very good, I think their in studio talent is weak.
 
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seems to really be in the BTN studio much less than other years I noticed. Relying on Andy Katz more. Its weird but I dont like FOX for college hoops. While they have some very good announcers...and alot from the Big 10 like Bardo and Jimmy Jackson is very good, I think their in studio talent is weak.
Could be pandemic related, not sure he's local to the studio.

I really only watch studio stuff following games I watch, which is mostly RU and occasionally a BE game, so I only really see Fox the last few years. I like Lavin a lot, I couldn't tell you if he's more insightful than the average studio analyst but he's likeable and, at the very least, avoids sounding like a dope.
 
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Could be pandemic related, not sure he's local to the studio.

I really only watch studio stuff following games I watch, which is mostly RU and occasionally a BE game, so I only really see Fox the last few years. I like Lavin a lot, I couldn't tell you if he's more insightful than the average studio analyst but he's likeable and, at the very least, avoids sounding like a dope.

I like him a lot too. I think it’s the one thing that the BTN lacks is a high profile ex coach. Trying with Beilein a little.
 
BAC - would you say that a win at Nebraska 100% assures that we’re not only in but avoid the play in game? Looking at the bubble, it seems like there will have to be 4 teams with worse resumes even if we (worst case scenerio) got smoked by Minn and then took another pounding against Michigan State or PSU in round one?

I don’t expect this - I saw a rebirth of our transition game which had been dead in the water since the first Iowa game (regardless of the quality of the opponent). Having that as a weapon would change everything about what we can do and the variety of styles we can play. Cautiously optimistic as it was only one game. But not being in the play in game is kind of that 1/4th win needed milestone. IMO that’s the dreaded landing spot - not an 8/9 game.
 
Play in game isn’t awful if you win and gives you a game before opponent. Usually 12 seed?
 
Play in game isn’t awful if you win and gives you a game before opponent. Usually 12 seed?

An 11 or 12, but that’s so not the point. After 30 years, to finally make the tourney and then not get into the main field would be a devastating end to the season. For forward looking perception of the program. Moral of players. Prospects of the seniors returning. Etc. Sure, its a winnable game but its also a loseable one. We do not want to be in that position.
 
BAC - would you say that a win at Nebraska 100% assures that we’re not only in but avoid the play in game? Looking at the bubble, it seems like there will have to be 4 teams with worse resumes even if we (worst case scenerio) got smoked by Minn and then took another pounding against Michigan State or PSU in round one?

I don’t expect this - I saw a rebirth of our transition game which had been dead in the water since the first Iowa game (regardless of the quality of the opponent). Having that as a weapon would change everything about what we can do and the variety of styles we can play. Cautiously optimistic as it was only one game. But not being in the play in game is kind of that 1/4th win needed milestone. IMO that’s the dreaded landing spot - not an 8/9 game.


RU will not be in the first 4 if they make the tournament
 
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I will say I do not like how Va Tech is finishing. They returned from Covid with a loss to Ga Tech at home. They have a big win over Nova and their others wins of note are Virgina, Clemson, and Duke. The UVA isnt looking as good now. I locked them in and I still feel they will make it but at this point I would currently put them down at the 8 seed behind RU/BYU who would be 7 even if I would not lock RU/BYU in if that makes any sense.

Va Tech loses the last 3, I guess they could fall close to the last 4 line but I am still confident that they make it and the covid pause will help their case..Just wanted to make a note about their profile.
 
7 SEEDS: Missouri, Rutgers, BYU, Florida

Big 10

1 SEEDS: Michigan, Ohio State
2 SEED: Illinois
3 SEED: Iowa
6 SEEDS: Wisconsin, Purdue
7 SEED: Rutgers
8 SEED: Maryland
11 SEEDS: Minnesota, Michigan State
12 SEED: Indiana (last team in)

That is 11 Big 10 schools projected AT THIS TIME. No I do not think that 11 Big 10 schools will make it. Just a snapshot in time. Minnesota's spot of course is not solid given their road mark. Michigan State at 11 might raise eyebrows but this is just me comparing their resume and wins vs other schools on the bubble. It is certainly not a safe spot and with Ohio State next, a loss could move them out of the field again. Indiana is hanging on by a thread at this point with a game vs Michigan coming up.

I will stop short of declaring Rutgers a lock but it would take some sort of highly highly weird scenerio to keep them out. You do not want to get a Q3 loss to such a horrible program like Nebraska that is the only thing. Last nights results on the bubble helped RU immensely.


FIRST 4 BYES: VIRGINA COMMONWEALTH, OREGON, MINNESOTA, MICHIGAN STATE
LAST 4 IN: INDIANA, DRAKE, COLORADO STATE, DUKE
FIRST 4 OUT: GEORGIA TECH, STANFORD, CONNECTICUT, MISSISSIPPI
NEXT 4 OUT: XAVIER, SETON HALL, UTAH STATE, RICHMOND
 
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Play in game isn’t awful if you win and gives you a game before opponent. Usually 12 seed?

The play-in game is absolutely awful, it gives you a ~50% chance to make it to a round you are otherwise 100% to make.
 
I sure don't want our return to the big dance to be in the first play in game unless we were guaranteed to win it. We could be out before most people even pay attention to the tournament.

Moot point IMO unless we lose out and squeak in. In that scenario, I would be happy with any seed in the field. The streak must end.
 
I just don’t want the dreaded 8-9 game which we had against Iowa and ASU. Again if you win a play in game it’s kinda fun.

I am looking at Minnesota before they play us, NW, Nebraska and Penn State. If they go 3-0 do they need season ending win over us?

Stanford Oregon interesting tonight.
 
I just don’t want the dreaded 8-9 game which we had against Iowa and ASU. Again if you win a play in game it’s kinda fun.

I am looking at Minnesota before they play us, NW, Nebraska and Penn State. If they go 3-0 do they need season ending win over us?

Stanford Oregon interesting tonight.

Being an 8 seed is way better than being a play-in game.
 
Play in game or no play in game. Either way that means we made the tournament.

That is a significant step for Rutgers hoops and shows recruits that Pike can build it.
 
Being an 8 seed is way better than being a play-in game.

I’m not so sure. One one level you’re absolutely correct. On the other hand, I’d might rather win a play in a game, win the 5-12 game and then play the winner of 4-13 rather than an 8-9 game and then playing 1.
 
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I’m not so sure. One one level you’re absolutely correct. On the other hand, I’d might rather win a play in a game, win the 5-12 game and then play the winner of 4-13 rather than an 8-9 game and then playing 1.

Yes but sir it is more difficult to win two games than one game. If you just ASSUME we win the play-in game and the first round game then okay but that's a weird assumption to make?
 
Keep in mind if B1G gets two ones and we have three teams that deserve an 8/9- they will need to adjust seeding of a team or two to make that work (eg, move to a 7/10)
 
Yes but sir it is more difficult to win two games than one game. If you just ASSUME we win the play-in game and the first round game then okay but that's a weird assumption to make?

I know but assuming winning those two and know a long shot would still rather that.
Likewise I would rather be a #10 seed than an #8-9.
 
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Bac as of now what do you think duke needs to get in? I might put in a bet on them to make it but you follow this much closer than I do. They’re 11-8 and on a 4 game win streak
 
I just don’t want the dreaded 8-9 game which we had against Iowa and ASU. Again if you win a play in game it’s kinda fun.

I am looking at Minnesota before they play us, NW, Nebraska and Penn State. If they go 3-0 do they need season ending win over us?

Stanford Oregon interesting tonight.
Our game against Iowa was not an 8-9 game. It was a 4-13.
 
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