No big deal, but yes we were a 13. Remember we conference winner from a mid major conference whose resume wasn’t that impressive.
2/23 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
The 13 seed was fair ...in 1989
I was hoping for a 12 though
Given that we went 16-5 in the Atlantic ten as part of 18-12....in that 16-5...we were
-2-1 against NIT teams Penn state and temple
-0-2 against NCAA And. Nationally ranked West Virginia. (One loss was by 1 at home at the RAC )
-one bad loss to UMass on the road
Out of conferences ...was our problem. Tough schedule by nothing to snow for it
-we lost to NIT team St Johns at the meadowlands by 1
-We lost to ncaa bound Syracuse at the RAC and on the road to Notre dame and seton hall
-we lost to A sub .500 northwestern and a pre big East Miami at the RAC
-bad loss to Lafayette
Bad losses ...probably quad three losses to sub .500 Miami, Lafayette, northwestern and UMass limited the seeding
I was hoping for a 12 though
Given that we went 16-5 in the Atlantic ten as part of 18-12....in that 16-5...we were
-2-1 against NIT teams Penn state and temple
-0-2 against NCAA And. Nationally ranked West Virginia. (One loss was by 1 at home at the RAC )
-one bad loss to UMass on the road
Out of conferences ...was our problem. Tough schedule by nothing to snow for it
-we lost to NIT team St Johns at the meadowlands by 1
-We lost to ncaa bound Syracuse at the RAC and on the road to Notre dame and seton hall
-we lost to A sub .500 northwestern and a pre big East Miami at the RAC
-bad loss to Lafayette
Bad losses ...probably quad three losses to sub .500 Miami, Lafayette, northwestern and UMass limited the seeding
if they win the next 3....home to Louisville, at Ga Tech, at UNC they will dance no question. If they win 2 of 3 then they sit right on the last 2 in/last 2 out and probably need a quality ACC tourney win to make sure they are in. With lots of opportunities for quality wins ahead, they and Michigan State are better positioned than most bubble schools
Yup. It’s not even close. Especially for a team that hasn’t made the tourney in forever. The possibility of losing the game for the right to be in the main bracket would be awful.
But I think BAC is probably right that play in is unlikely unless we “back in” with 3 losses (including Nebraska) in which case the season ending would already be pegged such a disappointment that losing a play in wouldn’t matter. Only way to go would be up.
Beating Nebraska would clear us of play in.
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big bubble night tonight as some schools solidified and even punched their tickets
BYU took care of San Fransisco and I am locking them in right now even with a game vs St Marys left to go.
San Diego State blew a huge lead but dominated in overtime to beat Boise State and the Aztecs become the AQ from the MWC. Boise still in the field but if they do not win the rematch with SDSU they could drop to the last 4 in.
Colorado routs USC and they are now a lock to the tournament.
UCLA got a needed win at Utah, not quite a lock, probably one away.
Oregon knocked off Stanford in a giant bubble battle. Oregon now looking good but still not a lock. Stanford meanwhile is serious trouble right now taking their 10th loss.
Houston knocks off Western Kentucky,,,,WKU is the CUSA AQ but there has been talk of them possibly being an at large contender but they needed to pull of this recently scheduled game
Minnesota a damaging blow to their hopes with the loss to Northwestern that will likely knock them out of field going into the weekend. Probably need to win their last 3 to get back in
Michigan State takes down a one seed. Dont listen the pundits who sleeping instead of doing bracketology..I mean you Jerry and Joe....Sparty now has wins over Illinois and Ohio State and Maryland and Rutgers and Duke. I already had them in so they are just moving up the seeding ranks. Still with 4 left...2 vs Michigan, they need to win at Maryland or beat Indiana or perhaps both to stay in the field
will have to wait til the new NET comes out tomorrow and see how the metrics play out before updated my last 4 in and out.
BYU took care of San Fransisco and I am locking them in right now even with a game vs St Marys left to go.
San Diego State blew a huge lead but dominated in overtime to beat Boise State and the Aztecs become the AQ from the MWC. Boise still in the field but if they do not win the rematch with SDSU they could drop to the last 4 in.
Colorado routs USC and they are now a lock to the tournament.
UCLA got a needed win at Utah, not quite a lock, probably one away.
Oregon knocked off Stanford in a giant bubble battle. Oregon now looking good but still not a lock. Stanford meanwhile is serious trouble right now taking their 10th loss.
Houston knocks off Western Kentucky,,,,WKU is the CUSA AQ but there has been talk of them possibly being an at large contender but they needed to pull of this recently scheduled game
Minnesota a damaging blow to their hopes with the loss to Northwestern that will likely knock them out of field going into the weekend. Probably need to win their last 3 to get back in
Michigan State takes down a one seed. Dont listen the pundits who sleeping instead of doing bracketology..I mean you Jerry and Joe....Sparty now has wins over Illinois and Ohio State and Maryland and Rutgers and Duke. I already had them in so they are just moving up the seeding ranks. Still with 4 left...2 vs Michigan, they need to win at Maryland or beat Indiana or perhaps both to stay in the field
will have to wait til the new NET comes out tomorrow and see how the metrics play out before updated my last 4 in and out.
Michigan St. is in if the season ended today, but can they survive their closing gauntlet? Rutgers a 7 today?
Last four in: Colorado St., Richmond, Michigan St., Duke
First four out: Seton Hall, Indiana, Minnesota, Stanford
Last four in: Colorado St., Richmond, Michigan St., Duke
First four out: Seton Hall, Indiana, Minnesota, Stanford
The way things are shaking out I am coming around to Rutgers being "locked" in already. I mean, I definitely don't think they are locked but I think I would project us in even with an 0-3 finish. That would be a nervous Sunday though and things could always change.
I think without a run in the conference tournament it's hard for Rutgers to realistically rise higher than a 7 seed. However if we get past the first BTT game the next games are pretty likely to be against 1/2 seed type teams so obviously if we managed to win one of those we could move up. A 4-1 finish with another win against Illinois and the loss vs. Ohio St => 6 seed (?)
How about:
Nebraska - win
Minnesota - win
Michigan St. - win
Illinois - win
Ohio St. - win
Iowa - win
3 seed
^ Looks like a @Scarlet Shack post imo
I think without a run in the conference tournament it's hard for Rutgers to realistically rise higher than a 7 seed. However if we get past the first BTT game the next games are pretty likely to be against 1/2 seed type teams so obviously if we managed to win one of those we could move up. A 4-1 finish with another win against Illinois and the loss vs. Ohio St => 6 seed (?)
How about:
Nebraska - win
Minnesota - win
Michigan St. - win
Illinois - win
Ohio St. - win
Iowa - win
3 seed
^ Looks like a @Scarlet Shack post imo
I think RU and BYU are already in.
I think MSU is in. Imagine them as a 12 seed. Some #5 seed isn't going to be happy.
USC, UCLA, Colorado and Oregon are in. Stanford looking like out.
Don't see how Minnesota recovers. Similar to SHU's loss to Butler.
Richmond has a huge game at St. Louis tonight.
I think MSU is in. Imagine them as a 12 seed. Some #5 seed isn't going to be happy.
USC, UCLA, Colorado and Oregon are in. Stanford looking like out.
Don't see how Minnesota recovers. Similar to SHU's loss to Butler.
Richmond has a huge game at St. Louis tonight.
Base case for them is 14-12 (8-12) going into the Big Ten Tournament. (They might draw us in the first round)
Surely 14-13 (8-12) isn't good enough right?
How about 15-13 (8-12) <= maybe? Seems sketchy though.
Think they need to finish 2-2 regular season to feel good at all.
Funny I haven’t heard Coach K advocating for the cancellation of the season lately.
I haven't looked at Duke in depth but with respect to Michigan State at least isn't it kind of the opposite?
The whole reason I am down on Michigan St.'s chances compared to others here is exactly because of the "opportunities" they have ahead of them. For a team that we agree would be in if the field selected today those look to me a lot more like opportunities to lose and fall out.
I dont know...they won 2 of their toughest games....beating Indiana shouldnt be all that tough, can they win at maryland, they can lose to Michigan 2x, it wont matter.
I think people are caught up in their analysis from a month ago, playing catch up to Michigan State, Duke and Ga Tech and clinging to Xavier, Seton Hall and A10 schools
I think people are caught up in their analysis from a month ago, playing catch up to Michigan State, Duke and Ga Tech and clinging to Xavier, Seton Hall and A10 schools
what confirms my suspicions about the NET being garbage is that Michigan State only went up 7 spots yesterday for beating Ohio State. Absolutely criminal. I saw UNC move up 20 spots and others move up 10 by winning by 40 against middling type teams. Thats why I didnt want the scrubs in for the Indiana game, big difference winning by 11 and winning by 25.
MSU somehow has a SOS of 105 in the NET,.,....complete joke......how is that possible. Also they now have 5 Quad 1 wins, no one can take that away. Win at Maryland and I think they lock in....that would be 6 wins
Well Indiana is the game they will be favored in.
I think this is similar to some of the disagreements we've had about Rutgers probably, just because Michigan St. has now played very well for three games I don't think they are all the sudden a great team. I agree that if they can get the next two they should be in, but realistically the odds of that aren't that great. They will be clear underdogs against Maryland, very slight favorites against Indiana, big underdogs to Michigan twice. Realistically they come out of that 2-2 or better like 30-35% of the time.
I think this is similar to some of the disagreements we've had about Rutgers probably, just because Michigan St. has now played very well for three games I don't think they are all the sudden a great team. I agree that if they can get the next two they should be in, but realistically the odds of that aren't that great. They will be clear underdogs against Maryland, very slight favorites against Indiana, big underdogs to Michigan twice. Realistically they come out of that 2-2 or better like 30-35% of the time.
So 2-2 or better to finish, 30-35% of the time, should be in
1-3 to finish + win a game in the BTT, 45% * 45% (?), another 20%
So in theory that's 50-55% of the time that they get to a point where they "should be in". But I also disagree with these pronouncements that 15-12 (9-11) Michigan St teams are mortal locks to get in. If you told me right now that Michigan St will finish 15-12 (9-11) without a win against Michigan, would I project them in? Yes. Would I bet on it at even like -115 odds? Probably not.
1-3 to finish + win a game in the BTT, 45% * 45% (?), another 20%
So in theory that's 50-55% of the time that they get to a point where they "should be in". But I also disagree with these pronouncements that 15-12 (9-11) Michigan St teams are mortal locks to get in. If you told me right now that Michigan St will finish 15-12 (9-11) without a win against Michigan, would I project them in? Yes. Would I bet on it at even like -115 odds? Probably not.
If Kyle Young played for Ohio State last night, I bet they would've won the game. Say what you will about him taking JY out, the guy is a good player and would've been worth enough to push them over the top. I think MSU needs to win at least one more (they should at least beat Indiana IMO) and possibly two to get in. Yes they have some very good wins but bottom line, 8-12 B1G with a first round B1G loss would not be impressive overall. No way they are getting in at 7-13 B1G without a deep B1G tournament run.
I just dont see any pathetic resume keeping them out if they have 6 Q1 wins (6-10) and 3 Q2 wins (3-1)....how can anyone argue for Xavier, SHU, Mississippi or Richmond over them. There really are not many bubble teams right now. Also remember the situation with Wichita State...AQ for now but geez the lack of games, one loss and they could be finished, that would open up another bid. Remember Indiana projected in for now but a loss to MSU and I dont think they recover. Also the 7-10 spots...RU, MD, MSU, Indy in the Big 10 tourney,,,,its another Q1 opportunity
they just won at Indiana and Ohio State, I dont think winning at Maryland is some impossible task. Maryland decent but come on here. The issue is you are not coming up schools that should be in OVER them, that is the issue here, we are running out of teams and running out time. Schools with no Q1 wins or very little else and with as bad as records like Stanford and SHU and Ole Miss have no case.
MORNING UPDATE
1: GONZAGA, BAYLOR, MICHIGAN, OHIO STATE
2: ILLINOIS, ALABAMA, WEST VIRGINIA, VILLANOVA
3: FLORIDA STATE, HOUSTON, IOWA, OKLAHOMA
4: TEXAS, TENNESSEE, KANSAS, USC
5: ARKANSAS, TEXAS TECH, CREIGHTON, OKLAHOMA STATE
6: WISCONSIN, VIRGINIA, CLEMSON, PURDUE
7: MISSOURI, BYU, RUTGERS, FLORIDA
8: COLORADO, LOYOLA CHICAGO, SAN DIEGO STATE, VIRGINIA TECH
9: MARYLAND, LSU, UCLA, OREGON
10: SAINT BONAVENTURE, MICHIGAN STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, LOUISVILLE
11: WICHITA STATE, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, BOISE STATE, DUKE
12: WESTERN KENTUCKY, TOLEDO, DRAKE, COLORADO STATE, INDIANA, GEORGIA TECH
FIRST 4 BYES: LOUISVILLE, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, BOISE STATE, DUKE
LAST 4 IN: GEORGIA TECH, INDIANA, COLORADO STATE, DRAKE
FIRST 4 OUT: CONNECTICUT, MINNESOTA, MISSISSIPPI, STANFORD
NEXT 4 OUT: XAVIER, SETON HALL, UTAH STATE, RICHMOND
1: GONZAGA, BAYLOR, MICHIGAN, OHIO STATE
2: ILLINOIS, ALABAMA, WEST VIRGINIA, VILLANOVA
3: FLORIDA STATE, HOUSTON, IOWA, OKLAHOMA
4: TEXAS, TENNESSEE, KANSAS, USC
5: ARKANSAS, TEXAS TECH, CREIGHTON, OKLAHOMA STATE
6: WISCONSIN, VIRGINIA, CLEMSON, PURDUE
7: MISSOURI, BYU, RUTGERS, FLORIDA
8: COLORADO, LOYOLA CHICAGO, SAN DIEGO STATE, VIRGINIA TECH
9: MARYLAND, LSU, UCLA, OREGON
10: SAINT BONAVENTURE, MICHIGAN STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, LOUISVILLE
11: WICHITA STATE, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, BOISE STATE, DUKE
12: WESTERN KENTUCKY, TOLEDO, DRAKE, COLORADO STATE, INDIANA, GEORGIA TECH
FIRST 4 BYES: LOUISVILLE, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, BOISE STATE, DUKE
LAST 4 IN: GEORGIA TECH, INDIANA, COLORADO STATE, DRAKE
FIRST 4 OUT: CONNECTICUT, MINNESOTA, MISSISSIPPI, STANFORD
NEXT 4 OUT: XAVIER, SETON HALL, UTAH STATE, RICHMOND
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unfortunately right now I see a wide gap between 6 and 7 right now. Its going to be tough for RU to get to a 6. RU could jump Purdue or Wisconsin if those schools struggle down the stretch and RU wins the last 2 and the first round Big 10 tourney game. Florida could jump RU as well its pretty close there, ditto for Colorado.
Ru could also get jumped for a 7 by SD State winning the Mountain West and could even get jumped by Loyola...so an 8 is still in play. Thats why it will be important to beat BOTH Nebby and Minny.
To get to a 5 would require winning the last 2 and then winning 2 in the Big 10 tourney which would mean knocking off a Michigan/Illinois/Ohio State
Ru could also get jumped for a 7 by SD State winning the Mountain West and could even get jumped by Loyola...so an 8 is still in play. Thats why it will be important to beat BOTH Nebby and Minny.
To get to a 5 would require winning the last 2 and then winning 2 in the Big 10 tourney which would mean knocking off a Michigan/Illinois/Ohio State
I'm not saying beating Maryland is impossible. Even beating Michigan is not even close to impossible.
The Torvik model has the probabilities of their remaining games as:
32% at Maryland
54% vs Indiana
10% at Michigan
20% vs Michigan
Massey has
34% at Maryland
56% vs Indiana
14% at Michigan
29% vs Michigan
Let's be generous and use Massey since it gives them a better chance in every game. Then:
4-0 0.77%
3-1 8.75%
2-2 27.58%
1-3 45.17%
0-4 17.73%
As for teams to get in over them if they finish W, W, L, L, L; I am projecting them in in that scenario. I just think the uncertainty level is a lot higher than you are saying; weird shit happens all the time. Just because I can't coherently argue for why Utah State or Stanford should get in over them doesn't mean it can't happen. Ditto unforeseen big conference tournament runs by bubble teams, bid stealers, etc.
So let's use the probabilities above and say:
3-1 or better gets them in 100% of the time. So 9.5% there.
2-2 + a win in the BTT tournament gets them in 100% of the time. Will give them 50% in the BTT game since don't know who they're playing. So that's another 14%
1-3 + a win or 2-2 + a loss, in 90% of the time (I think this is very generous btw). This should happen 50% * (27.58% + 45.17%) = 36% of the time. So 90% * that = 33%
1-3 + loss or worse and they're out. (I don't think it's literally 0% at 1-3 + loss but I've been so generous above I don't feel the need to add it)
So that's 56.5%. I think this is close to an upper bound on their chances.
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I agree, Nova's resume is garbage. They beat Texas and thats its. but at this point they are a power 6 conference leader and there is no one else. Creighton has 3 Q3 losses, OU just lost to Kansas State.
any 6 or 7 seed getting Houston should lick their chops...depending on the 14/15 they could go down in the first round.
my odds on seeding....
5: 5%
6: 15%
7: 30%
8: 30%
9: 15%
10: 5%
oops thanks..that is Florida State as the 3
5: 5%
6: 15%
7: 30%
8: 30%
9: 15%
10: 5%
oops thanks..that is Florida State as the 3
pretty cool, I found this old article from 2005 I wrote for the site
rutgers.rivals.com
TheKnightReport - RutgersFan.com NCAA Tournament Outlook, Part I
March Madness is about three weeks away and only a precious few teams already have locked up bids. So which teams have a good shot at making the Big D
rutgers.rivals.com
TheKnightReport - RutgersFan.com NCAA Bubble Blotter
One of RutgersFan.com's most notable basketball posters, bac2therac, brings you his latest NCAA Tournament lookahead, complete with records, rpis, pro
rutgers.rivals.com
Drake, Loyola, and Saint Bonaventure all got needed wins
Saint Louis topped Richmond. I do not like either so I am glad that Richmond is pretty much done for. St Louis really hanging on by a thread only 5-4 in A10. Utah State beats Nevada but hopes are faint at this point
Saint Louis topped Richmond. I do not like either so I am glad that Richmond is pretty much done for. St Louis really hanging on by a thread only 5-4 in A10. Utah State beats Nevada but hopes are faint at this point
Good review.. my memory was that we seemingly had no chance of the NCAAs in January.. then we started a nice winning streak... and the fever built.. carried us into the tourney in Philly and everything went right to have us host Penn State at the RAC for the A10 Tourney championsip and an NCAA bid. BACK TO THE RAC game. NIT bound with a loss. So the 12 or 13 was expected.
We spotted Iowa (BJ Amrstrong lead?) a good lead in Providence on St. Pats Day. Had a valiant run to close the gap.. but no one saw it on TV.. ESPN had moved away from our game while we were down double-digits. Then we foulded em to stop clock and they made shots. I should have stayed in Providence for hte night games.. could have seen Princeton nearly beat number 1 Georgetown (yes they were fouled on the last shot.. uncalled).. but we all decided to go pubbing in New Brunswick instead.
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Why is Virgina such a clear cut 6? To me, their profile sort of resembles the A-10 bubblers regardless of what the messed up computer numbers may say. Gaudy record. Only a win at Clemson (coming off a 2 week pause) in terms of sure field teams. They swept Georgia Tech who you put in the field for now but that’s hardly a lock either. Two home losses to terrible mid-majors is tough to overcome (even with a great FSU win). And that loss for VA to SF is pretty bad - I don’t know what the quads call it but it’s just as bad as a loss at Nebraska would be in reality.
Is MSU done if two more losses to Michigan? Will Duke and UNC get in? Minny looks done. Will Indy be the same?
What will happen with UConn, Xavier and SHU? I can see all three or none but guessing at least one of those three.
St. Louis has a shot and certainly deserves to be in conversation. Beat LSU, St. Bonnies and now Richmond, all who have been on the bubble. Two point loss to VCU in a questionable officiated game to say the least. Have a win over NC State and a lose to Minny.
Still have no idea what they will do with A10 as four are interchangeable with VCU, Bonnies, Richmond and St.Louis. Likewise the same with American Athletic after Houston with Wichita, SMU and perhaps Memphis.
Utah State is alive certainly if Stanford continues to fade and NCAA wants more western teams. I know the NCAA or CBS "never" does that. ;-) I guess 4 teams from the MWC would be a stretch.
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regional and conference politics will certainly be part of the NCAA selections... as always.
you see it in the recent AP polls... voters are now concerned about how their more local teams and conferences are represented.
imagine a case where, in OOC play, a conference goes undefeated and then in the regularseason, everyone is .500.. well, you just know not everyone is going to make the NCAAs. In the room there will be talk (or at least THOUGHT) of how many slots given conferences "deserve". The various rankings upn which they say they rely were meant to end the "horse-trading" that goes on... possibly limiting such negotiations to who plays where and who has an easier path.
I wonder, @bac2therac , do you take into account such things in filling out your projections? Do you say to yourself, well, the Big Ten really could "deserve" 11 slots.. but you just know 9 or 10 will be the committee limit.
you see it in the recent AP polls... voters are now concerned about how their more local teams and conferences are represented.
imagine a case where, in OOC play, a conference goes undefeated and then in the regularseason, everyone is .500.. well, you just know not everyone is going to make the NCAAs. In the room there will be talk (or at least THOUGHT) of how many slots given conferences "deserve". The various rankings upn which they say they rely were meant to end the "horse-trading" that goes on... possibly limiting such negotiations to who plays where and who has an easier path.
I wonder, @bac2therac , do you take into account such things in filling out your projections? Do you say to yourself, well, the Big Ten really could "deserve" 11 slots.. but you just know 9 or 10 will be the committee limit.
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