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2/23 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

Maryland impressive over Rutgers. Nearing an 8 seed now. With their last 2 against lesser just like Rutgers they are a lock but not quite a lock

Don't think Michigan State loses anything from this loss. Im keeping them exactly in this spot. However beating Indian is really important given 2 games vs Michigan to end the regular season
 
bac, I'm starting to suspect that whoever emerges from the {Ill, Iowa, OSU} pack to win the B1G tournament or lose to Michigan in the finals would get the last #1 seed. Plausible?

Yeah but Iowa has no shot unless they win this. Illinois and OSU meet next week and that will likely position one of those as the last one heading into the Big 10 tourney
 
Maryland now tied with Rutgers at 9-9 records. and they have Northwestern and Penn State remaining.They can move up to a number 8 seed with two wins.
 
Also hoping to avoid 8 seed in Big 10 tourney to avoid Michigan in Quaterfinals. . If we and Maryland both end up 11-9, who earns tie breaker? If we win out we can leapfrog Wisconsin if they lose their last 2 games vs Purdue and Iowa and either end up as 6 or 7 seed.
 
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Also hoping to avoid 8 seed in Big 10 tourney to avoid Michigan in Quaterfinals. . If we and Maryland both end up 11-9, who earns tie breaker? If we win out we can leapfrog Wisconsin if they lose their last 2 games vs Purdue and Iowa and either end up as 6 or 7 seed.
My thoughts exactly.
 
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Yeah but Iowa has no shot unless they win this. Illinois and OSU meet next week and that will likely position one of those as the last one heading into the Big 10 tourney
You said Illinois being a one seed is not happening if they lost to MSU last week which they did. Why are you flip flopping on that now?
 
Yeah I want to know what the tie breaker deal is too. The rules on paper are so confusing. I think maybe it goes to whoever’s BIG opponents aggregate a better winning percentage in conference. But maybe I read it wrong.
 
One thing seems clear after watching this weekend’s games — our conference appears to have 4 of the top 8 teams in the country, especially with Baylor, Oklahoma and Villanova all losing. Can we get two 1-seeds and two 2–seeds?
 
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You said Illinois being a one seed is not happening if they lost to MSU last week which they did. Why are you flip flopping on that now?

Really odd post by you..since the unlikely occurred that Ohio State lost to both Michigan State and Iowa

The fact remained from the earlier argument we wanted Illinois to beat Michigan State. I stand by that
 
One thing seems clear after watching this weekend’s games — our conference appears to have 4 of the top 8 teams in the country, especially with Baylor, Oklahoma and Villanova all losing. Can we get two 1-seeds and two 2–seeds?
I take it back — I forgot about OSU’s loss to MSU.
 
Really odd post by you..since the unlikely occurred that Ohio State lost to both Michigan State and Iowa

The fact remained from the earlier argument we wanted Illinois to beat Michigan State. I stand by that
Why is it odd. OSU losing those games wasn't that unlikely and don't have much to do with Illinois. MSU was hot and Iowa is just better than OSU. Was curious as to why you flipped on the possibility of Illinois getting a one seed.

Also Illinois losing to MSU definitely was better for us. Illinois's NET didn't even fall one spot, remained at 4. And our 1-1 split with MSU turned a nothing burger win and a bad loss into a decent win and not a bad loss. MSU was like 40 spots behind us (still 37 behind us today) in NET posing zero threat to our tourney chances.
 
perhaps but still a longshot. Illinois has the best route. If WVU can beat Baylor and then win the Big 12 tourney then yes they can do it.

Just curious why you think they have an easier path? Illinois still has to go on the road to OSU and Michigan (possibly without their best player) while WVU has 3 home games left and will probably be favored in all of them - maybe even Baylor. Both have 6 losses right now and sort of had similarly tough non-conference schedules. WVU lost a close one to Gonzaga. Illinois lost to Baylor. WVU lost to Florida. Illinois lost to Missouri. WVU beat VCU and Richmond. Illinois beat Duke.
 
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Why is it odd. OSU losing those games wasn't that unlikely and don't have much to do with Illinois. MSU was hot and Iowa is just better than OSU. Was curious as to why you flipped on the possibility of Illinois getting a one seed.

Also Illinois losing to MSU definitely was better for us. Illinois's NET didn't even fall one spot, remained at 4. And our 1-1 split with MSU turned a nothing burger win and a bad loss into a decent win and not a bad loss. MSU was like 40 spots behind us (still 37 behind us today) in NET posing zero threat to our tourney chances.


dude its odd because you are reaching bac to a post from last week trying to indicate some crazy flip flop. Guess what..no one predicted 3 straight losses by OSU and then assuming a possible 4th which would put Illinois as a 1 seed..so now that wasnt a likely scenerio and I stand by what I said.

but keeping acting like 4 straight Ohio State losses was what you were thinking when you posted this. Illinois is a one seed now because OSU is losing thats the only reason.

Illinois is our best win, we want them for it to be thought of in the best it can possibly be
 
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Just curious why you think they have an easier path? Illinois still has to go on the road to OSU and Michigan (possibly without their best player) while WVU has 3 home games left and will probably be favored in all of them - maybe even Baylor. Both have 6 losses right now and sort of had similarly tough non-conference schedules. WVU lost a close one to Gonzaga. Illinois lost to Baylor. WVU lost to Florida. Illinois lost to Missouri. WVU beat VCU and Richmond. Illinois beat Duke.


why? because of NET and because look at how things have been projected by bracketologists who are not blowing smoke. They are working at a place of catchup right now. Illinois wont have to beat Michigan if they beat Ohio State. 8 Quad one wins is an advantage vs 6
 
I think so..for now but with Ohio State and Michigan coming up all bets are off
I actually hope only Michigan gets a 1 seed from conference. If so, there is 33% chance that we if we are 8/9 seed and win our game - we won't be matched up with Gonzaga or Baylor but maybe rather with WVU; Houston etc.
 
Maryland is lurking as a possible 8/9 seed too...and with Wisconsin losing lately, if they lose their last two and say lose their first Big 10 tourney game, they are another potential 8/9 seed.

There could be an adjustment that puts a school as a 7 or a 10 to avoid a matchup
 
why? because of NET and because look at how things have been projected by bracketologists who are not blowing smoke. They are working at a place of catchup right now. Illinois wont have to beat Michigan if they beat Ohio State. 8 Quad one wins is an advantage vs 6

NET isn’t an exact science. If history repeats itself relative wins and losses against the field usually matter the most when seeding time comes for real (and the formulas are also weird this year).

I’d think it would depend how wins vs Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin (sweep), Indiana (sweep - if they are even a tourney team) and @ Duke (maybe in field) compare on selection day to wins @ Texas, Kansas, TT (sweep), Oklahoma State, VCU (neutral - if they make the field), Richmond (if they make the field. Still TBD

also Baylor hasn’t looked as good coming off pause. Beat Iowa State by 4 and lost to Kansas. But maybe they will bounce back next game.
 
Palm now has Illinois a 1


RU a 7 playing 10 St Bonnies with WVU the 2

bac,
Isn't it amazing how some Rutgers fans continue to look at Rutgers in a bubble? I mean, there are plenty of folks who still believe Rutgers has to win out or at least another game to secure a spot in the dance. Has any of them watched other teams on the bubble sh*t the bed? You have stayed the course by looking at the numbers, performances of others, etc., to come to your conclusion.
 
bac,
Isn't it amazing how some Rutgers fans continue to look at Rutgers in a bubble? I mean, there are plenty of folks who still believe Rutgers has to win out or at least another game to secure a spot in the dance. Has any of them watched other teams on the bubble sh*t the bed? You have stayed the course by looking at the numbers, performances of others, etc., to come to your conclusion.

Let's be honest we are talking about Rutgers. I want every shred of security going in to selection Sunday and 9-11 in conference with no great OOC wins leaves me leery. I mean we were going to make it last year and then global pandemic throws the ultimate RU Screw.
 
bac,
Isn't it amazing how some Rutgers fans continue to look at Rutgers in a bubble? I mean, there are plenty of folks who still believe Rutgers has to win out or at least another game to secure a spot in the dance. Has any of them watched other teams on the bubble sh*t the bed? You have stayed the course by looking at the numbers, performances of others, etc., to come to your conclusion.
100%. A lot of RU fans only look at RU, and don’t realize how badly other teams are doing.
 
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bac,
Isn't it amazing how some Rutgers fans continue to look at Rutgers in a bubble? I mean, there are plenty of folks who still believe Rutgers has to win out or at least another game to secure a spot in the dance. Has any of them watched other teams on the bubble sh*t the bed? You have stayed the course by looking at the numbers, performances of others, etc., to come to your conclusion.


I still want to beat Nebby because if RU did lose and then their would be alot off uneeded angst and pressure put on the program and negativity for the next 2 weeks.

The bubble is pretty tragic right now and legitimately I think only about 3 schools not in have a realistic chance
 
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It would not shock me no matter what Oregon and Rutgers does the rest of the season that somehow we get matched up, 1st round(8 vs 9, 7 vs 10, 6 vs 11), knowing how the NCAA works and storylines would sell itself, definitely one of THE marquee matchups on Thurs/Fri games. Hopefully, Texas ends up in the same bracket to motivate JY.
 
Way Pac 12 is going and USC and UCLA slipping, Oregon or Colorado could be highest seed?
 
Not so fast BAC. Ken Pom currently has Colorado at 16, six spots higher than USC. So not at all impossible for a 5 or certainly a 6.
 
while I have Colorado a 7 and their NET is great but obviously inflated, swept USC, beat UCLA and Oregon, they have 3 Quad 3 losses, we will see, they would have to run the table to get that 6

and for that matter while UCLA is the projected AQ, their resume is embarrassing. Only 1 win vs Colorado against a projected tourney team
 
its will be tough for anyone besides USC to get about above a 7
Are you sure USC should be higher than a 7th seed? I watched them a few times and was not overly impressed. I wish Rutgers was in the PAC 12 so they have a shot of winning a conference title.
 
I dont like any of the Pac 12. I have USC a 6 for now based on their net and wins over BYU, UCLA, Oregon but again not that impressive. Need to win both vs Stanford and UCLA to stay on this line. Unfortunately I believe the selecton committee is going to reward the regular season champ with at least a 7 and if its USC and 6 or even 5.
 
Would love to be a 7. Revenge tour !
Beat UConn and Hurley in first round . It didn’t take 7 years Danny.
Beat nova and Wright in second round. We owe you Jay for screwing us in 2001.
Beat McCaffery and Iowa in sweet 16 . Should have been here Fran instead of keeping hill.
Then we can be whoever in elite 8 to get to final four.
 
I dont like any of the Pac 12. I have USC a 6 for now based on their net and wins over BYU, UCLA, Oregon but again not that impressive. Need to win both vs Stanford and UCLA to stay on this line. Unfortunately I believe the selecton committee is going to reward the regular season champ with at least a 7 and if its USC and 6 or even 5.

USC looked so good against Oregon. Have not seen that since but do know they are capable. I would not mind matching up with UCLA at all. I could see a Colorado v Oregon Pac 12 final.
 
It would not shock me no matter what Oregon and Rutgers does the rest of the season that somehow we get matched up, 1st round(8 vs 9, 7 vs 10, 6 vs 11), knowing how the NCAA works and storylines would sell itself, definitely one of THE marquee matchups on Thurs/Fri games. Hopefully, Texas ends up in the same bracket to motivate JY.
I doubt very much one person on the selection committee even realizes Eugene O left RU for Oregon.
 
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