2/23 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Agree, but it would be a great time listening to the announcers butcher Omoruyi!
Same will be a great birthday present. Would love to sneak into the 6 line and avoid the juggernauts at the one line
You don't give the Committee enough credit, trust me there are matchups happening each year where transfer players playing their old teams, or 2 top scorers in the country playing each other, top off vs top def, off vs off, def vs def, etc. They know and will move teams up or down, after seeds 1-4, it's all fluid 5-12 to get interested stories or matchups, that why you see some seeds overrated, underrated.
From 2018-19,
8seedE #34 VCU(25-8) Q1/2 5-4 vs *9 #30 UCF(23-8)* Q1/2 8-7
8seedW #42 Syracuse(20-13) Q1/2 6-11(3-9,3-2) vs *9 #39 Baylor(19-13)* Q1/2 12-10(4-9,8-1)
8seedS #36 Ole Miss(20-12) Q1/2 7-12(4-10,3-2) vs *9 #37 OU(19-13)* Q1/2 10-12(4-10,6-2)
8seedMW #29 Utah St(27-6) Q1/2 5-5 vs *9 #45 Washington(26-8)* Q1/2 10-7(2-4,8-3)
7seedE #22 Louisville(20-13) Q1/2 9-12(4-11,5-1) vs *#61 Minnesota(21-13)* Q1/2 12-12(5-10,7-5)
7seedW #23 Nevada(29-4) Q1/2 8-2 vs *#31 Florida(19-15)* Q1/2 8-13(4-12,4-1)
7seedS #25 Cincinnati(28-6) Q1/2 13-5(5-4,8-1) vs *#43 Iowa(22-11)* Q1/2 11-10(4-10,7-0)
7seedMW *#13 Wofford(26-4)* Q1/2 9-4(3-4,6-0) vs # 57 Seton Hall(20-13) Q1/2 14-11(7-8,7-3)
*won
7 out of 8 games the team with more Q1/2 games played won. only exception Wofford was unbeaten outside Q1, SHU was Q2.
This also had the year NET #24 Kansas St(25-8) Q1/2 14-8(7-5,7-3) 4 seed lost 1st round to UC-Irvine 29-5(won Big West), and NET #28 Marquette(24-9) Q1/2 16-8(10-5,6-3) 5 seed lost 1st round to Murray St 26-4(won OVC), because KSt and Marquette were overseeded to red hot 12 and 13 seeds.
2 other 5s lost, Wisc to Oregon 23-12(won Pac12) and Miss St. to Liberty 28-6(won Asun), also on long win streaks
One 11 seed beat a 6, none from First4.
11s #55 tOSU(19-14) Q1/2 9-13(4-10,5-3) vs 6s #21 ISU(22-11) Q1/2 11-11(8-7,3-4), Iowa St was under .500 against Q2, tOSU Q2.
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You are right. Far more than one person as the Committee has access to all sorts of information which helps it come up with matchups with offer a certain amount of intrigue.
Not sure what the numbers are after tonight, RU will drop dramatically in the NET due to a 21 point loss, my first glance says RU will fall to a 9 or 10 but I will have to do a full scrub tomorrow.
the good news is several bubble schools lost
Richmond to a 3 win St Joes that moves them off the bubble
St Bonaventure to Dayton allthough the Bonnies win the A10 regular season
Syracuse upsets North Carolina and that still doesnt put the Orange on the bubble. UNC still no sure thing.
the good news is several bubble schools lost
Richmond to a 3 win St Joes that moves them off the bubble
St Bonaventure to Dayton allthough the Bonnies win the A10 regular season
Syracuse upsets North Carolina and that still doesnt put the Orange on the bubble. UNC still no sure thing.
So in Kenpom we only dropped 7 spots. I think that's a good sign for the NET, maybe it won't be quite as bad as feared? Of course the NET is a black box of insanity so we could be #100 tomorrow with a SOS of 236 as well.
And down to #39 in Torvik, which I think is nine spots. Might be 10.
As an aside the game score of 9 is the worse since Feb 5, 2018 when we lost to Indiana 65-43 to fall to 12-14 (2-11) on the season. When this team plays badly, they play really badly.
As an aside the game score of 9 is the worse since Feb 5, 2018 when we lost to Indiana 65-43 to fall to 12-14 (2-11) on the season. When this team plays badly, they play really badly.
and yes the SOS takes a hit too I would assume..and Minny is a Q1 for now on the road and Q2 at home...but they are perilously close to being a Q3 at home..wow
I really think there are 8 spots and about 11 schools in that mix
my concern is with 13-12...had they scheduled two other games and were 15-12 it would help..it also hurts that our Minnesota and Indiana wins are not lookng as good now
On the plus side our Illinois, Maryland and Purdue wins are looking better each day,.
some thoughts tonight...full scrub and update probably posted late tomorrow afternoon or evening
In looking at the last 4 spots, I am beginning to see something emerge from those projected in and those out.
In the A10, St Bonnies is the AQ while VCU probably in the first 4 byes, St Louis on the outside looking in. I think the A10 will get 2 but not 3. St Louis can flip in over VCU or even St Bonnies
In the MWC, Colorado State will become the AQ with a win tonight, San Diego State is locked in. Boise is in for now, Utah State out. I think Mountain West will get 3. If Boise or Colorado does not make it its because Utah State knocked one out and maybe won the tourney. I dont think its a 4 bid league
In the ACC, Louisville looks pretty good but now UNC with the loss not so good and with Ga Tech out and Duke in/out depending on who you ask. This is looking like maybe 2 or 3...tough call.
Big East has UConn in for now with Xav/SHU right on the cut line....I think 2 make it but not 3.
In the Big 10, RU has a bit of cushion for now over the rest but only if they win again, if not then they fall right in line with possibly Minny if Minny also beats PSU. MSU looks in if they beat Indiana but what will happen with 2 losses to Michigan.
Then there is Drake will they sneak in.
Wichita St is the AQ from CUSA but geez not so sure of them as an at large. Their spot could conceivable flip with a Memphis or SMU sort of unlikely
In looking at the last 4 spots, I am beginning to see something emerge from those projected in and those out.
In the A10, St Bonnies is the AQ while VCU probably in the first 4 byes, St Louis on the outside looking in. I think the A10 will get 2 but not 3. St Louis can flip in over VCU or even St Bonnies
In the MWC, Colorado State will become the AQ with a win tonight, San Diego State is locked in. Boise is in for now, Utah State out. I think Mountain West will get 3. If Boise or Colorado does not make it its because Utah State knocked one out and maybe won the tourney. I dont think its a 4 bid league
In the ACC, Louisville looks pretty good but now UNC with the loss not so good and with Ga Tech out and Duke in/out depending on who you ask. This is looking like maybe 2 or 3...tough call.
Big East has UConn in for now with Xav/SHU right on the cut line....I think 2 make it but not 3.
In the Big 10, RU has a bit of cushion for now over the rest but only if they win again, if not then they fall right in line with possibly Minny if Minny also beats PSU. MSU looks in if they beat Indiana but what will happen with 2 losses to Michigan.
Then there is Drake will they sneak in.
Wichita St is the AQ from CUSA but geez not so sure of them as an at large. Their spot could conceivable flip with a Memphis or SMU sort of unlikely
The analysis by Rothstein on CBS sports last night on what Rutgers has to do to get in was misinformed and misguided and someone at his level should have a better understanding of the bubble
St. Louis looking very good as previously noted. They might be in over VCU now. Bonnies looking good. Can easily see this as a three bid league.
Our win over Syracuse looking better.
SHU/UConn/Xavier is fascinating. My guess is TV wants UConn so it will come down to the other two for bid.
I just wonder if NCAA has a heart as Utah State like RU should have been in tourney last year. If Stanford continues collapse maybe Utah State is another western team.
SMU or Wichita will probably have gaudy record and arguably as good as Drake so suspect two bid league.
GT, Duke, Louisville, UNC, maybe Cuse??? will be interesting. Duke at UNC to end season? But then ACC tourney...
should we be rooting for Minn to lose to PSU so it officially knocks them out or would that hurt us further is we lose to them on Saturday? Also, how about MSU and Indiana? They are basically along the same projections right now.
tough call with Minnesota...if they beat PSU and then RU, we likely play again in Big 10 tourney for all the marbles...Minny 15-12, RU 13-11, winner gets in.
on the flip side if Minny loses to Penn State, they likely drop out of top 75, so then loss would be Q2 and our win a Q3 and we might get MSU in the Big 10 tourney instead of Minny
if we just win the damn game vs Minny thats solves all
on the flip side if Minny loses to Penn State, they likely drop out of top 75, so then loss would be Q2 and our win a Q3 and we might get MSU in the Big 10 tourney instead of Minny
if we just win the damn game vs Minny thats solves all
Why do we suspect we’d play MN in the BIG tourney. What seed game would that be? 8/9?
