2026 Expected Points and All-Americans By Seed

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I spent a little time yesterday folding the 2025 results into the model.

First, expected points, including bonus, per seed. Not a lot of big changes, but the hump in the 26/27 range has begun to flatten out a bit.

The other interesting thing is, despite the change in scoring there was not a noticeable change in bonus. While it is higher than the previous two years, those years were very down. I am looking at 11 years of data (the 16 and 32 seed era), and across that range 2024/25 bonus scoring does not stand out.

 

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Next comes the probability of All-American by seed.

 

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And a new one this year.

Taking a barbell approach, the most interesting results are often the extremes. So, here I have the probability of being in the final two versus the probability of going 0-2, BBQ.