3/2 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

bac2therac

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Here we go, as usual come in and grab your favorite donut and cup of coffee and enjoy

I have locked up 24 of the 37 available at large bids all the way down to through the third 8 seed. Let's dive into field and the pecking order......there are 20 schools competing for 13 available at large bids.


ONE SEEDS

GONZAGA
MICHIGAN
BAYLOR
ILLINOIS


TWO SEEDS

OHIO STATE
ALABAMA
WEST VIRGINIA
IOWA


THREE SEEDS

VILLANOVA
HOUSTON
FLORIDA STATE
KANSAS


FOUR SEEDS

ARKANSAS
OKLAHOMA STATE
TEXAS TECH
TEXAS


FIVE SEEDS

CREIGHTON
CLEMSON
OKLAHOMA
TENNESSEE


SIX SEEDS

VIRGINIA
PURDUE
USC
WISCONSIN


SEVEN SEEDS

MISSOURI
FLORIDA
BYU
SAN DIEGO STATE


EIGHT SEEDS

VIRGINIA TECH
COLORADO
LOYOLA CHICAGO

1. (28) MARYLAND 14-10: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 1-1, road 4-5, SOS 4

Terps all but punched their ticket to the dance with wins at Rutgers and Michigan State at home. Just a matter of taking care of business by winning one more game. With those being Northwestern and Penn State, it should not be too hard for them with the way they are playing. The metrics all scream yes. SOS outstanding. 5 Quad 1 wins, 4 of them on the road. That win over Illinois is the top line of this resume. A good chance to move up in seeding as well. Will be a dangerous out in both the Big 10 and NCAA tourney



NINE SEEDS

2. (38) RUTGERS 13-10: Q1: 4-8, Q2: 4-2, road 3-6, SOS 28

RU blew a golden opportunity to lock into the tournament but suffered a hideous loss at Nebraska. Metrics wise its only a Q2 at least for now but the 21 point loss did not crash their NET and that is a positive. Knights seem to be limping down the stretch. but for them they can answer all questions by winning at troubled Minnesota on Saturday. The positives for RU lead with the Illinois win which looks sparkling. That win over Purdue continues to look more impressive every day, as does the road win at Maryland. The Michigan State win is a Q3 for now but could easily bump to Q2 which would help the numbers. They did split with Sparty. Unfortunately the three wins over Indiana/Minnesota have taken a hit as those schools have sagged down the stretch. RU built up enough cushion where just one more win either at Minnesota or in the Big 10 tourney vs likely Minn/Indy/MSU would be enough. The question that the Scarlet Knights and their fans do not want to face is what happens if they lose out. 13-12 is not a good mark even in a down bubble year. Probably become 50/50 at that point as a bloated conference team that could get passed over by a high mid major with a better record. Seen these types of profiles every year, some step up, some crumble to the floor.


3. (29) LSU 14-8: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 3-1, road 3-6, SOS 7

Tigers continue to sink down the seeding list. Losing at Arkansas is no shame but losing at Georgia is emblematic of why they sit on the 9 seed. Their profile is living off of wins over Tennessee and Arkansas and a very strong SOS. Despite the lack of oomph there are no real glaring negatives on the resume. I suppose that should keep the Tigers afloat on the right side given one more win down the stretch. That should come with Vandy this week but then an opportunity for a Q1 game at Missouri. if LSU loses both that is when all bets are off and they will need to pick up a couple of SEC tourney wins to fortify their bid.



4. (36) OREGON 17-5: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 5-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 6-2, SOS 119

Ducks won for the 8th time in 9 tries by taking down Arizona last night. Now a bubble matchup on Wednesday vs UCLA that could decide the Pac 12 regular season title. Its important the Ducks win this game to remove any doubt or win in Corvailis vs Oregon State. . Despite the gaudy record and passing any and all eye test, a deeper look into the profile shows the Ducks have only beaten one projected tourney team in Colorado. They do have a non conference win over Seton Hall and swept Arizona/Stanford. The Q3 losses to Washington State and Oregon State came when they were banged up and the committee will take that into consideration. Liking their chances to dance.


(39) UCLA 17-6: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 3-2, road 5-4, SOS 111

Bruins are somehow in first in the Pac 12 but for how long. After losing at Colorado, UCLA faces a critical two game finale at Oregon and home to USC. Despite the gaudy overall record from a power 6 conference, there is really little flesh on this particular resume. How bad is it. Well just 2 wins in Q1 and 5 in both Quads speaks for itself. That means 12 of 17 coming from Quads 3 and 4 which are mid majorish type numbers. This is a really bad profile folks. The Bruins beat Colorado and that is all. Throw in a sweep of Arizona and you have to go down to a win at Utah for next best win????!!!! On the plus side there is no real bad loss although Washington State wasnt a good one. Pretty simple to figure out they desperately need a quality win. A split would be good enough given the drek around the bubble but if they lose both they really are put into an interesting spot where they have to show up and do some damage in the Pac 12 tourney.


TEN SEEDS

(40) COLORADO STATE 15-4: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 1-1, road 4-3, SOS 99

The Rams are now the projected AQ from the Mountain West. Right now the Mountain West is looking like a three bid league with Utah State lurking on the outside. The Rams finally got back in action with a sweep of lowly Air Force but must avoid any miscues this week in dangerous games vs New Mexico and at Nevada. its not an overwhelming profile but CSU managed to split with the 3 best teams in the league...San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State with the latter two on the road. Still when 12 of their 15 wins come from Q3 and 4, its always an issue and the one OOC game of note they scheduled they lost by 20 to St Mary's. Again, Mountain West tourney is going to decide everything for these Mountain West teams and each would do their best to try and reach the finals.


5. (47) LOUISVILLE 13-5:
Q1: 1-4, Q2: 6-0, road 4-4, SOS 49

That was a big win at Duke for the Cardinal giving them just their 1st Q1 win. Yes they are a strong 6-0 in Q2 where they have wins over piled up pretty good wins over Va Tech, Ga Tech and bubbles SHU and Duke. Note an ugly Q3 loss to awful Miami. Its a middling profile with a high risk high reward schedule to finish the season. At Virginia Tech and home to Virgina, a win in either of them will lock them but if they lose both then the questions start. They would lose all cushion they have against other ACC bubbles, drop their Q1 mark to an unsightly 1-6 and mean that they would need an additional quality win or even two in the ACC tourney. Can play their way into the field and out of the field.


6. (59) NORTH CAROLINA 15-9:
Q1: 2-8, Q2: 6-0, road 3-7, SOS 37

Seems like the Heels continue to take one step forward and then one step back. A stunning beatdown of Louisville, an inexplicable scheduled game and loss to Q3 Marquette in Chapel Hill was followed by their best win of the season over Florida State. Yet the Heels fell on the road to a mediocre Syracuse which prevented them locking in just yet. The win over FSU was just their 2nd Q1 win, the first being Duke and now the Heels host the Blue Devils in an unlikely drama filled bubble clash. A win would give them enough cushion to lock in before the NCAA touney but a loss and they sit in a three team ACC bubble battle with Duke and Ga Tech all probably in the last 6-8 team in grouping in the field meaning the ACC tourney will decide everything.


(32) SAINT BONAVENTURE 13-4:
Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-1, road 4-3, SOS 63

Bonnies had already clinched the A10 regular season title before last night's costly slip up to Dayton. With only 17 games, played the Bonnies have to be careful in the A10 tourney of an early exit. If they can make the finals they are probably good to go. They have the advantage over fellow bubbles St Louis and VCU at the moment but a quarterfinal or even semifinal exit is going to hurt given the resume just is lacking in so many ways. Their best wins are just VCU and Richmond. That loss to Dayton was a Q3 blemish they could not afford and there is a Q2 loss to mediocre Rhody. A10 likely for 2 this year but the feeling is its undeserving for 3 .



ELEVEN SEEDS

WESTERN KENTUCKY


7. (77) MICHIGAN STATE 13-10: Q1; 4-9. Q2: 3-1, road 3-7, SOS 137

Sparty had the best week ever with back to back wins over Illinois and Ohio State. which put their Quad 1 win total at 4. However they could not follow it up at Maryland and now face an absolute must win situation vs Indiana given the final 2 games are home and home with Michigan. The overall NET numbers continue to play catchup, I say ignore them. Legitimately their profile dwarf many on here because of their quality wins. Illinois, Ohio State, Rutgers and a key one over bubble Duke. Even though Northwestern may be considered a bad loss its still in Q2. Obviously a win over Michigan will lock them into the tournament. The question becomes what if the Spartans only beat Indiana and then lose both to Michigan, will that be enough. Thinking is they might sit on the last 2 line and would likely need a Big 10 tourney win to keep them in the field. Can be very dangerous 10/11 seed.


8. (41) GEORGIA TECH 13-8: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 5-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-5, SOS 52

Yellow Jackets played their way into the field with a strong week that saw a much needed quality road win at Virginia Tech and taking care of business vs Syracuse. Starting to gain some steam and they do pass the eye test. Those two early season Q3 losses tio Mercer and Georgia State when they had Covid issues are headscratchers but very well may be forgiven. Some good wins here....Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina. I really think their issue is taking care of business vs bubble Duke and winning at Wake and that should lock them into the tourney so they will not even need to do much in the ACC tourney. Liking their trajectory.


9. (37) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 17-6:
Q1: 1-4, 2 Q3 losses, Q2: 7-0, road 5-3, SOS 32

Rams suffered an unfortunate loss at Davidson. Stinging because a few days earlier they were in good shape after taking down St Louis. Now there are some good wins here, yes Utah State is the lone Q1 win but they have 7 Q2 wins and included in there are St Bonnies, St Louis, Richmond and Memphis. is it enough on its own in the A10 which is quite middling this year. Note those Q3 losses to Rhode Island and George Mason could ultimately hurt. Getting to the A10 finals going to be extremely important, not sure if anything else can keep them in.




TWELVE SEEDS

TOLEDO

(67) WICHITA STATE 11-4: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-2, road 4-2, SOS 42

For now the WheatShockers are the AQ from the AAC but in reality they will likely have to fight for an at large spot. WSU had two games cancelled with SMU which is costly because those games could have helped raise the lacking profile. Now only games remain against bottom fish Tulane and Temple. I suppose getting to the finals and another crack at Houston which is their sole quality win is their route. While the quality wins are lacking as Ole Miss is the only other win of note, what might be most impressive is that they dont have any bad losses and of the 4 losses, you see three close losses to Houston, Missouri and Ok State. Likely to go over a A10 third.


10. (34) BOISE STATE 17-6: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2. road 4-6, SOS 42

Broncs find their way back into the last 4 in grouping after getting swept by the Aztecs in San Diego last week. Those were not bad losses at all but they were missed opportunities to bolster their resume which now is lagging a bit. Yes there is the non conference win over BYU and a split with Colorado State but its hard to get around 13 of their 17 wins coming from Quad 3 and 4. The sweep by Nevada hurts. Broncs must beat Fresno in the season finale but its looking like they may draw with SD St again in the MWC semis. Still thinking the Mountain West is deserving enough and good for 3 but its no uncertainty and bid thieves abound in March.


11. (35) CONNECTICUT
12-6: Q1: 2-3. Q2: 3-3, road 5-3, SOS 85

Huskies finally move back into the field in a week that was about avoiding bad losses then actually bolstering their resume. This week its a game at Seton Hall that likely determines whether the Huskies will have work to do in the Big East tourney or not. This wins are still pretty thin here. USC and at Xavier. Yet there are no bad losses outside of Q2 and that the Huskies suffered through injuries and Covid will get consideration from the committee. Huskies arlready lost to SHU and SHU is sitting in the last 4 out, a loss would put them in precarious spot right on the last in/last out line heading into the BE tourney and it might take a trip to Big East finals to feel secure. Oh and also some advice, don't lose at Georgetown in the finale.


12. (42) DRAKE 22-3:
Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-0, road 9-2, SOS 263

Bulldogs used up all their mulligans after dropping the season finale at Bradley. Its their 2nd Q3 loss on a profile that had just one Q1 which was over tourney bound Loyola Chicago. They have 4 Q2 wins but sorry wins over Missouri State and Indiana State will not move the needle. Drake absolutely cannot lose before the MVC finals or they are out. An argument can still be made that there is only shot is to win the MVC tourney. Its hard to say what happens when the dust settles but this tournament comes a week before most others so barring winning the MVC tournament they will be at the mercy of the bubble around them....and the committee for that matter.


13. (50) XAVIER 13-5:
Q1; 2-2, Q2: 4-3, road 2-3,, SOS 50

After a costly loss at Providence, Xavier followed it up by collecting a big time Q1 win over Creighton. That gives the Musketeers a 2nd to go along with that huge OOC win over Oklahoma. Throw in a nice win over MAC AQ Toledo and you can see a willing profile start to take shape. Yes they lost to fellow bubbles Seton Hall and UConn yet their wins are better. A good thing to note is no losses outside Q1 and 2. However the road mark at 2-3 is a concern and that will concern will be dealt with this week. Trips to Georgetown and Marquette to conclude the season. These wins will not be about quality, it will be about winning 2 on the road and avoiding taking on any perceived bad losses. With SHU lurking right behind them a sole BE tourney win would also be recommended.



THIRTEEN SEEDS

CAL SANTA BARBARA
WINTHROP
LIBERTY
WRIGHT STATE


FOURTEEN SEEDS

BELMONT
NAVY
UNC GREENSBORO
SIENA


FIFTEEN SEEDS

EASTERN WASHINGTON
BRYANT
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
UMBC


SIXTEEN SEEDS

JAMES MADISON
TEXAS STATE
GRAND CANYON/NICHOLLS STATE
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M/NORTH CAROLINA A&T


OUT

14. (58) DUKE 11-9: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 4-3, road 3-4, SOS 65

Its make or break time for the Blue Devils. The loss at home in overtime to Louisville ended the 4 game win streak that saw them just push into the field last week. A missed opportunity it highlighted the major issue..the overall record. Now just 11-9, Duke needs wins. The issue this week is that these are two tough games to close the year..at Georgia Tech and at North Carolina. Obviously huge opportunities but they almost need both at this point. A split still just puts them at 13-11 meaning more to do in the ACC tourney, losing both means a run to the ACC finals is required. Winning both probably is going to have them looking really good but not quite a lock. Still shockingly lack in the Q1 department for a power conference school not to mention the ACC. Just 2-3 and the Virginia one is the only one that matters. There are wins vs Clemson and Ga Tech. But what really has crushed their profile are the Q3 losses...yes I know one is Michigan State and they are likely to become Q2 but that Miami loss is brutal. Bubble trouble I think for them.

15. (53) SETON HALL 13-10: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 3-3, road 6-6, SOS 51

The Pirates really have a resume that scream NIT. Credit them for beating bubbles Xavier and UConn. Note they went 0-4 vs the top 2 schools in league Nova/Creig. Yet their profile is littered with losses to mundane and mediocre teams like Providence, Butler, Rhode Island, and Georgetown. That two of those losses came in the last week says it all about what is going on with their chances. Thanking the lord, that the bubble has crashed the past week. One last shot when they host surging UConn tomorrow. Need that, a win at St Johns and then a trip to the Big East finals. That is a tough slog so we shall see.


16. (43) SAINT LOUIS 13-5:
Q1: 1-2, Q2: 3-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 1-4, SOS 222

Billikens have been hanging around and hanging around and hanging around. Last night's win over UMass keeps them in contention albeit it might just be easier for them to win the whole damn A10 tourney. They do have that great win over LSU, beat the regular season champ the Bonnies, and Richmond and even the NC State win looking better. However its hard to get around just 1-2 vs Q1. Two other red flags show up...the road mark at 1-4, the only win being Fordham and 2 Quad 3 losses Dayton but La Salle???? both on the road. Tough to look at this profile and consider them NCAA worthy. Will need to beat the Bonnies again in the A10 tourney.

17. (48) UTAH STATE 15-7:
Q1: 2-4, Q2; 1-1, road 4-3, SOS 94

Aggies really behind the eightball in the MVC at large picture mainly because of two costly Q3 losses to So Dakota State and UNLV. In league they kept pace by sweeping San Diego State and splitting with Colorado State. Albeit getting swept by Boise hurts. Wyoming and a trip to Fresno to end the season are mandatory to stay in contention. Even a trip to the tourney finals might not be enough. Consider the Aggies have won just 3 times outside Q3 and 4 and lost a key non conference bubble matchup with VCU. A longshot at best.


18.
(70) MINNESOTA 13-12: Q1; 4-10, Q2; 1-1. road 0-9, SOS 22

With rumors swirling about Little Ricky's future, the Gophers are down to their last opportunities. Pegged as high as an 8 a few weeks ago, they are in the midst of losing 10 of their last 13. Two hideous losses at Nebraska and home to Northwestern put them on life support. The 0-9 record stands out like a sore thumb as does those two bad losses. Fading in their profile headlines are feather in their cap victories over Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa and Purdue. The profile just cannot absorb this many losses especially bad ones no matter how impressive their Quad 1 wins are. A trip to Penn State on the docket first, its a must win to even stay on the bubble list, then they will need to beat Rutgers at home and then win that first round Big 10 tourney game against either Michigan State or Rutgers. With injuries still a factor going forward and rumors of a coaching removal imminent, Minny is more likely to pack it in then try and battle for an at large bid


19. (63) STANFORD 14-
11: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 1-5, road 6-5, SOS 59

Now on a three game losing streak the last loss a Quad 3 home game to Oregon State, the Cardinal appear on the verge of a NIT selection. The profile was willing up to a few weeks ago. A big non conference win over Alabama was a marquee win. There was the win over UCLA and a sweep of UCLA. That all ended and the profile started to take on water and has not stopped since. Losses in key battles with Oregon and Colorado. A bunch of Q2 losses to Washington State and Arizona State. Just1-5 vs Q2 and 5-10 vs both quads is not going to cut it on the bubble. A game at USC left in what would be an unlikely victory, without a win there they would have to win the whole Pac 12 tourney..buy bye.


20. (57) INDIANA
12-12: Q1: 3-9, Q2: 6-1, road 3-5, SOS 45

Indiana facing tourney elimination tonight as they travel to Michigan State. The Hoosiers downswing started a while back with a loss at home to MSU then continued in losses to Rutgers and Michigan. At just 500, the Hoosiers have gone on underwater. They will not only need to beat Michigan State but they will need to win at Purdue and likely a Big 10 tournament game to vault back into the field. Would not seem remotely possible to complete this feat given their recent level of play. They do not have the quality of wins that say Minnesota has. Running off the sweep of Iowa and a home win of Maryland and that is all. More likely to finish 12-15 than anything else.




FIRST FOUR BYES: NORTH CAROLINA, MICHIGAN STATE, GEORGIA TECH, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
LAST FOUR IN: XAVIER, DRAKE, CONNECTICUT, BOISE STATE

FIRST FOUR OUT: DUKE, SETON HALL, SAINT LOUIS, UTAH STATE
NEXT FOUR OUT: MINNESOTA, STANFORD, INDIANA, SYRACUSE
 

bac2therac

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90% or more in per Lunardi...what is interesting is he is being very generous with this is basically saying there are only 5 unaccounted for spot and about 10 schools tops competing for them. Its very unlike other years because there just are not enough schools ready to take the place of UNC or Rutgers and most of the schools last 5 out and in are coming from the same conferences.

EvfhNilWgAs8_XM
 

StevieB160

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“Definitely weakest bubble ever. Some of these schools barely have a quality win”

2020

“Cavs almost moving up this list by default as the weak bubble melts around them”

2019

“Sooners have a solid enough resume in a weak bubble year”

2018

“It helps that the bubble is terribly weak but why should MTSU go over Nebraska for example”

2017

“but the bubble really is weak this year…when Indiana is in my last 4 out despite being 5-9 in the Big 10 that says something”

2016

“The weak bubble is never more accurate than this season”

2015

“They could be okay with such a weak bubble but you never know”
 

G- RUnit

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Well done! i am also always amused at weak bubble talk!

It will be interesting how SHU/UConn/Xavier works out.

Still think St. Louis better than the Bonnies and VCU. Dayton loss can't be that bad when league leading St. Bonnie lost to Dayton... yesterday.

Utah State losses to South Dakota State, a tourney team, that isn’t awful.

Have to root for UNC. Want Duke to go away as that will be the team they will try to get in.
 
Last edited:

Greene Rice FIG

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Go back to 64 if you want a stronger bubble.

question/thought for Bac (or anyone)

1. As a Rutgers fan should we have any thought in the back of our mind that a Indiana, Minnesota or Michigan State can take our spot based on number of B1G teams. I know the answer is supposed to be no they take the best teams irregardless of conference affiliation.

2. Patriot league getting 2 if Navy beats Colgate in OT on a controversial call. 😀
 

Greene Rice FIG

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3. What about bias of Michigan State and Duke? Do you think they get a slight advantage? Not that we need another reason, but should we root against Duke even harder
 

bac2therac

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Well done! i am also always amused at weak bubble talk!

It will be interesting how SHU/UConn/Xavier works out.

Still think St. Louis better than the Bonnies and VCU. Dayton loss can't be that bad when league leading St. Bonnie lost to Dayton... yesterday.

Utah State losses to South Dakota State, a tourney team aren't awful.

Have to root for UNC. Want Duke to go away as that will be the team they will try to get in.


St Louis lost to La Salle
 

bac2therac

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Go back to 64 if you want a stronger bubble.

question/thought for Bac (or anyone)

1. As a Rutgers fan should we have any thought in the back of our mind that a Indiana, Minnesota or Michigan State can take our spot based on number of B1G teams. I know the answer is supposed to be no they take the best teams irregardless of conference affiliation.

2. Patriot league getting 2 if Navy beats Colgate in OT on a controversial call. 😀


Will not address #2

Not really. Nothing set. Conferences are not competing againstvthemselves they are competing against all the bubble

Remember when dealing in league when one team rises its likely another is falling. If RU loses out, that could mean Minnesota played its way back in and in that case "took" our spot

I have 9 from Big 10 going. I don't see an issue at all about MSU vs Rutgers. 2 completey different profiles and circumstances as to how they will wach punch their dance card
 

bac2therac

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3. What about bias of Michigan State and Duke? Do you think they get a slight advantage? Not that we need another reason, but should we root against Duke even harder

We definitely need to root against Duke in their games vs Ga Tech and UNC. Lose both and they will need a miracle ACC run which you know will probably happen
 

Greene Rice FIG

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If you won’t answer#2. Here is #4.

Rutgers loses out, gun to your head is Rutgers in based on what you see now
 

bac2therac

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if Minny beats Penn State, yes RU is out. Minny would have beaten PSU, RU, and RU in the Big 10 tourney opening round and then yes RU is out and Little Ricky is in with a contract extension

if Minny loses to Penn State its likely they will not finish ahead of Sparty, RU would then play Sparty in the 8/9 game most likely and at 13-12 I think will just barely slide into the field in the play in game.
 

BigEastPhil

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Have to beat Minnesota on Saturday and hope we don't play a surging and maybe desperate Sparty at Big 10 Tourney as I'd prefer Indiana or Minnesota again.

As Bac said, losing last 2 and ending up 13-12 may not and probably won't cut it.

Let's hope we see a valiant effort on Saturday reminiscent of the Purdue game last year and we're all celebrating at about 2pm on Saturday !
 
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Shell21

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Great night for us so far. These other bubble teams keep losing and don’t have our resume
 

Erial_Lion

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Only impacts auto-bids, but Wright State, the best team in the Horizon, suffered a horrific loss tonight at home to Milwaukee in the quarterfinals. Wright St was up 69-45 with under 8 minutes left (with the ball) and 73-56 with 4:53 left. Ended up losing it in OT.

That’s quite the tough one to swallow for their players/coaches/fans.
 
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RUfanSinceAnderson

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Only impacts auto-bids, but Wright State, the best team in the Horizon, suffered a horrific loss tonight at home to Milwaukee in the quarterfinals. Wright St was up 69-45 with under 8 minutes left (with the ball) and 73-56 with 4:53 left. Ended up losing it in OT.

That’s quite the tough one to swallow for their players/coaches/fans.
Any chance they are an at large ?
 

bac2therac

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Duke goes down to Ga Tech. They are in some trouble if they do not win at UNC on Saturday. Ga Tech now looking pretty good, not a lock but on the 10 line

Big win by Michigan State, they are a 10 now and might be flirting with knocking RU from the 9. Lets see how they do vs Michigan. If they do not win, a Big 10 tourney win will do the trick

LSU beats Vandy and they are locked in now

Really could not have had a better night for Rutgers on the bubble.

Realistically bubble schools are disappear not appearing. Legit I think 5 schools out of the field in realistic contention and seeing a situation where its either or.....

Seton Hall or Xavier not and
St Louis or VCU not and
Utah State or Boise State not and

unfortunately there does exist a scenario where its Minnesota or Rutgers not and

Duke in a must win situation Saturday just to stay on the bubble

The other schools Stanford, Syracuse and Memphis are truly incredible longshots
 

bac2therac

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yeah at this point not worth considering them, Ive had them in my listing before but just feel pretty strongly now they will have to reach the SEC finals
 
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bac2therac

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i will say this, there are teams in the bracket that are finishing out strong. Because RU has limped home they are doing themselves a major disservice seedings wise. I currently have RU as the 2nd 9 seed. However for example the winner of Oregon/UCLA will bump ahead of RU. Michigan State is really close to moving ahead of all of them including RU. A win over Michigan will certainly bump them perhaps to an 8. The 3 ACC schools Ga Tech, UNC, UL all have realistic opportunities to move to the 9 line.

To me its mandatory this team beats Minnesota, if they do not it means heading into conference tournament week for everyone, RU probably is the last bye just avoiding the last 4 in, so basically 5th team in. That is a scary scary place to be. A first round Big 10 tourney loss puts them right at the cut line and at the mercy of how everyone they are ahead of does and the mercy of the selection committee. If you do not think that in a 13-12 scenario RU could miss out, you are a completely clueless.

This all goes away by winning at a wounded Minnesota but we never should be in this damn situation in the first place. I am furious.
 

bigmatt718

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Gotta root hard for PSU, as much as we don't want to. We want a Minnesota team begging and wishing for death on Saturday. I don't want them even remotely thinking about anything other than the offseason when they face us on Saturday, and PSU whipping them will go a long way towards that.
 

bac2therac

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exactly, if Minnesota loses to Penn State they go to 0-10 on the road, they would need to get to the Big 10 finals to steal any bid from anyone.

unfortunately its looking like red hot Michigan State will be our opponent in the Big 10 tourney, unless its Minnesota beating PSU and RU and MSU losing 2x to Michigan

although there is a possibility if Indiana upsets Purdue and MSU loses 2x that Indiana will finish 9th and be the opponent
 
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RUtrumpet92

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Michigan State might not be red hot if Michigan takes it to them twice. Who knows? Momentum can come and go quickly.

Just win Saturday and end the drama. Please.
 

bac2therac

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Michigan State might not be red hot if Michigan takes it to them twice. Who knows? Momentum can come and go quickly.

Just win Saturday and end the drama. Please.


yep and the way things have played out, one win is all it will take, any other scenario really will not be mathematically possible based on the who is on the bubble