ADVERTISEMENT

A look into Rutgers' offense & defense

Pork roll huh? We used to call it Taylor Ham.

We have turned it around from last year when we would have had difficulty defeating anyone in the MAC. We haven't played anyone on the road (in Madison in nine days) or anyone ranked. But Sagarin has our strength of schedule at 23rd toughest. More than respectable.

So you think Syracuse is going bowling this year? I don't see that happening, but maybe.

I agree that on the road vs Wisconsin will be our first major test. We have not done well on the road vs ranked opponents. I hope the Badgers beat ND this weekend in quadruple OT.
Taylor is the brand name. Pork roll is the food (and even Taylor calls it pork roll.)

But I'll forgive you since you are obviously not from NJ.

Taylor_pork_roll_slices_on_pkg.JPG
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
A Michigan blog breaks down the Scarlet Knights' offense. Long and very detailed. I hope some of you will enjoy th
https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi
What was there to enjoy? A blogger who still thinks Ash is coaching us. A blogger that talks about Syracuse
A Michigan blog breaks down the Scarlet Knights' offense. Long and very detailed. I hope some of you will enjoy this.

https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi-fo-film-rutgers-offense-2021#read-more
What was there to like ? This blogger still thinks we are coached by Ash. This blogger for some reason talks about Syracuse last year , when they really struggled, and does not mention how Michigan sucked last year, and beat Rutgers in 3OT’s when McNamara came into his first game and bailed out Milton. Both teams have essentially their whole team back , with 1-3 newer players, so the blogger’s perception of Michigan’s superiority is fantasy. Any blogger worth an ounce of credibility would realize that Vedral gets the ball out faster than any team Michigan has played , so the pass rush will be neutralized and our offensive line , which does have issues , will be less exposed. His sole reliance on the Syracuse game , thinking the Temple and Delaware games do not matter at all is dumb shit. Yeah , you cannot hang your hat on beating those teams and putting up yards like you did against them, but you have to account on whether there was improvement in passing , blocking , schemes , efficiency. So Delaware is relevant for that. I can almost guarantee we got at least 3 if not more 20+ chunk plays in the passing game. Once the screen / wide receiver plays are better defended because the safeties are cheating up , we will see double moves for a long completion or 2 , hopefully even a Vedral to Melton or to Cruikshank Td pass in stride blowing pass the secondary. Although his article focused on offense , his statement that we will not score 14 points and there is nothing to worry about is so clueless. He doesn’t even mention defense and special teams that are better than Michigan ‘s in every metric and that we have both played about the same level of competition. Does he even consider Rutgers defense and special teams putting up 7-14 points. If so , his one dimensional vaulted offense better be scoring TDS not Fgs., otherwise guess what his holier than mighty Michigan team will hold a big L between their asses at the Big House this Saturday. The overall dismissive nature of the tone of every point and it’s snarkingness was so annoying. Our 2005-2011 Schiano teams would have kicked Michigan’s asses. This chump thinks Ash like is the team Rutgers will field / Not!!!!! His failure to recognize our skill positions and wide receivers was also disrespectful. I hope both Melton , Cruikshank and Haskins and Langan score TDs on Saturday in all various ways.
 
What was there to enjoy? A blogger who still thinks Ash is coaching us. A blogger that talks about Syracuse

What was there to like ? This blogger still thinks we are coached by Ash. This blogger for some reason talks about Syracuse last year , when they really struggled, and does not mention how Michigan sucked last year, and beat Rutgers in 3OT’s when McNamara came into his first game and bailed out Milton. Both teams have essentially their whole team back , with 1-3 newer players, so the blogger’s perception of Michigan’s superiority is fantasy. Any blogger worth an ounce of credibility would realize that Vedral gets the ball out faster than any team Michigan has played , so the pass rush will be neutralized and our offensive line , which does have issues , will be less exposed. His sole reliance on the Syracuse game , thinking the Temple and Delaware games do not matter at all is dumb shit. Yeah , you cannot hang your hat on beating those teams and putting up yards like you did against them, but you have to account on whether there was improvement in passing , blocking , schemes , efficiency. So Delaware is relevant for that. I can almost guarantee we got at least 3 if not more 20+ chunk plays in the passing game. Once the screen / wide receiver plays are better defended because the safeties are cheating up , we will see double moves for a long completion or 2 , hopefully even a Vedral to Melton or to Cruikshank Td pass in stride blowing pass the secondary. Although his article focused on offense , his statement that we will not score 14 points and there is nothing to worry about is so clueless. He doesn’t even mention defense and special teams that are better than Michigan ‘s in every metric and that we have both played about the same level of competition. Does he even consider Rutgers defense and special teams putting up 7-14 points. If so , his one dimensional vaulted offense better be scoring TDS not Fgs., otherwise guess what his holier than mighty Michigan team will hold a big L between their asses at the Big House this Saturday. The overall dismissive nature of the tone of every point and it’s snarkingness was so annoying. Our 2005-2011 Schiano teams would have kicked Michigan’s asses. This chump thinks Ash like is the team Rutgers will field / Not!!!!! His failure to recognize our skill positions and wide receivers was also disrespectful. I hope both Melton , Cruikshank and Haskins and Langan score TDs on Saturday in all various ways.
Calm down, you did not see me going off on the guy (well at least after 2 cups of coffee). 😉 😂
 
I'll add to KS post:.

The analysis was not complete. The writer chose an arbitrary single data point (Syracuse game) to provide examples to back up his (likely) pre-conceived conclusions. He also references last year's results from Syracuse to back up his points - instead of looking at their team based on the 3 games played this year.

While maybe not as difficult than a Syracuse game on the road, the DE and Temple games should have been accounted for in the analysis of RU's offense this year.

Examples:
  • "Cruickshank in particular features heavily as a jet sweep option, the one with more speed, speed which once landed him on a real P5 roster (Wisconsin)." .....this is a statement essentially saying RU is not a real P5 Roster. If the writer (Alex Drain) had bothered to check - Sanders emerged as a more significant receiving option for RU in the DE game. Langan is also starting being used as a receiving option in a quasi H back set.
  • "They're not really making any effort to push the ball down the field" - while this may have been true in the first 2 games, RU's yards per attempt more than doubled in the DE game with multiple attempts down the field (and even over the deep middle).
  • "Pacheco is the bellcow back and on a team with a QB duct-taped to a chair and receivers who are not allowed to go five yards past the line of scrimmage until after they've caught the football",
  • Asking a power five (I use that term very loosely) QB to play the way Rutgers wants him to is almost insulting to the QB you're asking, because Vedral is tasked with simply being a conduit by which to move the football from between the center's legs to the perimeter of the line of scrimmage - if the author had bothered to look at the DE game, he would have seen a significant increase in Passing play attempts as well as deployment of the QB Read Option. The point here is not to say RU will be as effective against Michigan as it was against DE....rather to understand the trending of RU's offensive schemes as the season progresses.
  • Regarding RU's win over Syracuse........"Rutgers did not win this game; they had this game given to them." Author conveniently forgot that Special Teams, Turnover Margin and Defense all play into a team's ability to win a game.
  • Regarding Michigan's prospects in the game on Saturday......."Play your best tackling DB's because coverage is not a concern, but being able to shut off the screens is. Tackle well on the perimeter, stuff the run, and rush Vedral, and this should be a bloodbath. " My sincere hope is that Harbaugh and the Michigan Staff are treating this game with the same view as the author (Alex Drain) of this analysis.
The problem is you are using a game against an FCS team to try and prove this guys observations wrong. Are offense isn't as good as it was against Deleware and isn't as bad as it was against Syracuse. Its somewhere in the middle.
 
The problem is you are using a game against an FCS team to try and prove this guys observations wrong. Are offense isn't as good as it was against Deleware and isn't as bad as it was against Syracuse. Its somewhere in the middle.

Actually you are making my point for me. I did not publish an article on-line claiming that RU will run out the exact same offense as they did against Syracuse. This has little to do with how good or bad the offense is. Rather it is about the schemes we run. My observation was that his analysis was not a good one if it did not take into consideration all of the potential schemes and plays they ran against all teams to date.
 
I'm also not forming any conclusions on the season until I've seen more and certainly not riding a high coming off the DE game. Point of my post was that while some people here are praising this guy's analysis......on closer examination it is really not that great of a read.

While I agree with looking to a median or mean assessment when judging performance, IMO the article (and my comments) was not about that. The author was making an attempt to analyze Rutgers offensive play calling based almost exclusively on the RU-Syracuse gameplay & video and then ascribe a pre-determined outcome for the Michigan game based on RU's near exact offensive blue-print from the Syracuse game. My point was that RU showed different looks and play calling in the DE game that the author chose to ignore in his analysis. This created a situation where he was using falsehoods to back up his opinions. For instance, his conclusion basically stated that Michigan will crush RU as they will not have to worry about covering receivers other than on screens & slants.

While it may be that RU goes back to being uber conservative in it's offense against Michigan - they also may not simply based on data inputs from this season to date. To completely ignore the fact that they have already shown this season an in-game offensive scheme that was much more wide open than he indicated is irresponsible on the part of the author and invalidates much of the analysis. To me the analysis represented much more of a confirmation bias towards the days of RU as the BIG punching bag under Ash.
Understood.

I’d only comment that, until we prove otherwise consistently, a bias towards viewing us as a punching bag, by the Big Ten elites, isn’t entirely unwarranted. Only RU fans will view last season’s near win against UM as evidence of anything. Do it again on Saturday, and a few non-RU fans will notice. Do it a several years running and win a couple, more people will notice.

Gaining respect, and deserving respect IMO, is not an overnight thing for us. Will take years of success.
 
  • Like
Reactions: pmvon
Taylor is the brand name. Pork roll is the food (and even Taylor calls it pork roll.)

But I'll forgive you since you are obviously not from NJ.

Taylor_pork_roll_slices_on_pkg.JPG

Well, this was back in the 70's. Lived in North NJ for ten years as a kid. Played for the mighty Somerset Hills Bulldogs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
Well, this was back in the 70's. Lived in North NJ for ten years as a kid. Played for the mighty Somerset Hills Bulldogs.
Actually, in Northern NJ, it is IMPROPERLY called Taylor Ham. The further East, especially in Hudson County, it is pronounced Taylah Ham. It's actually a huge point of contention in this state--whast is the proper name of the world's greatest breakfast meat?
 
What was there to enjoy? A blogger who still thinks Ash is coaching us. A blogger that talks about Syracuse

What was there to like ? This blogger still thinks we are coached by Ash. This blogger for some reason talks about Syracuse last year , when they really struggled, and does not mention how Michigan sucked last year, and beat Rutgers in 3OT’s when McNamara came into his first game and bailed out Milton. Both teams have essentially their whole team back , with 1-3 newer players, so the blogger’s perception of Michigan’s superiority is fantasy. Any blogger worth an ounce of credibility would realize that Vedral gets the ball out faster than any team Michigan has played , so the pass rush will be neutralized and our offensive line , which does have issues , will be less exposed. His sole reliance on the Syracuse game , thinking the Temple and Delaware games do not matter at all is dumb shit. Yeah , you cannot hang your hat on beating those teams and putting up yards like you did against them, but you have to account on whether there was improvement in passing , blocking , schemes , efficiency. So Delaware is relevant for that. I can almost guarantee we got at least 3 if not more 20+ chunk plays in the passing game. Once the screen / wide receiver plays are better defended because the safeties are cheating up , we will see double moves for a long completion or 2 , hopefully even a Vedral to Melton or to Cruikshank Td pass in stride blowing pass the secondary. Although his article focused on offense , his statement that we will not score 14 points and there is nothing to worry about is so clueless. He doesn’t even mention defense and special teams that are better than Michigan ‘s in every metric and that we have both played about the same level of competition. Does he even consider Rutgers defense and special teams putting up 7-14 points. If so , his one dimensional vaulted offense better be scoring TDS not Fgs., otherwise guess what his holier than mighty Michigan team will hold a big L between their asses at the Big House this Saturday. The overall dismissive nature of the tone of every point and it’s snarkingness was so annoying. Our 2005-2011 Schiano teams would have kicked Michigan’s asses. This chump thinks Ash like is the team Rutgers will field / Not!!!!! His failure to recognize our skill positions and wide receivers was also disrespectful. I hope both Melton , Cruikshank and Haskins and Langan score TDs on Saturday in all various ways.
As others have mentioned, the blog watches one game by an opponent each week and breaks down each individual play. They picked Syracuse because that is most likely the most Big Ten like team you have played this season, with better athletes on average than Delaware or Temple. And while last year is not a perfect prediction of how a team will look this year, it is true more often than not that the good stay good (OSU) and the terrible stay terrible (UConn).

He doesn't think Ash is still your coach. As the title of the thread stated, this article only looked at the offense. If there is an article that breaks down the defense, I will post a link to that as well.
 
Actually, in Northern NJ, it is IMPROPERLY called Taylor Ham. The further East, especially in Hudson County, it is pronounced Taylah Ham. It's actually a huge point of contention in this state--whast is the proper name of the world's greatest breakfast meat?

Yes, I am aware that this is the debate that may lead to a second Civil War. Similar to pork vs beef BBQ.

When I was a kid I didn't even know people called it anything else or would even care. I had a provincial upbringing.

PorkRollPan_PorkRoll_Facebook-735x488.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
I just didn't like his tone. After reading this I hope we beat them by one point, cuz according to the writer that would make thier offense one point worse than our dreadful Offense
 
Pretty early for someone to already have pissed in your Cheerios.

Our offense has been leaning on the run for two reasons. A) Our QB is still learning the system. B) Our running game is so far leading the nation. And the only team with a really strong defense that we have played (Washington) refused to dedicate 8 in the box to stop our run. If teams are going to attempt to defend us straight up, we will continue to lean toward running the ball. If Rutgers schemes to stop our run (I would), you will see more of our passing game. I think Wisconsin will be a tough test of our developing passing game. We lost our most experienced receiver for the year, but we seem to have three or four targets to fill his yards.

Syracuse is ranked 95th best in Sagarin's predictor formula. Which isn't your fault. Just a few years ago they nearly upset Clemson, right? So when the game was scheduled Syracuse was a much tougher opponent. To answer your question Michigan was terrible last year. I would say we have turned things around more than any program this year, but Penn State was also awful in 2020.
giphy.gif
 
Pork roll huh? We used to call it Taylor Ham.

We have turned it around from last year when we would have had difficulty defeating anyone in the MAC. We haven't played anyone on the road (in Madison in nine days) or anyone ranked. But Sagarin has our strength of schedule at 23rd toughest. More than respectable.

So you think Syracuse is going bowling this year? I don't see that happening, but maybe.

I agree that on the road vs Wisconsin will be our first major test. We have not done well on the road vs ranked opponents. I hope the Badgers beat ND this weekend in quadruple OT.
You just started WW3 with that statement.

giphy.gif
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
What was there to enjoy? A blogger who still thinks Ash is coaching us. A blogger that talks about Syracuse

What was there to like ? This blogger still thinks we are coached by Ash. This blogger for some reason talks about Syracuse last year , when they really struggled, and does not mention how Michigan sucked last year, and beat Rutgers in 3OT’s when McNamara came into his first game and bailed out Milton. Both teams have essentially their whole team back , with 1-3 newer players, so the blogger’s perception of Michigan’s superiority is fantasy. Any blogger worth an ounce of credibility would realize that Vedral gets the ball out faster than any team Michigan has played , so the pass rush will be neutralized and our offensive line , which does have issues , will be less exposed. His sole reliance on the Syracuse game , thinking the Temple and Delaware games do not matter at all is dumb shit. Yeah , you cannot hang your hat on beating those teams and putting up yards like you did against them, but you have to account on whether there was improvement in passing , blocking , schemes , efficiency. So Delaware is relevant for that. I can almost guarantee we got at least 3 if not more 20+ chunk plays in the passing game. Once the screen / wide receiver plays are better defended because the safeties are cheating up , we will see double moves for a long completion or 2 , hopefully even a Vedral to Melton or to Cruikshank Td pass in stride blowing pass the secondary. Although his article focused on offense , his statement that we will not score 14 points and there is nothing to worry about is so clueless. He doesn’t even mention defense and special teams that are better than Michigan ‘s in every metric and that we have both played about the same level of competition. Does he even consider Rutgers defense and special teams putting up 7-14 points. If so , his one dimensional vaulted offense better be scoring TDS not Fgs., otherwise guess what his holier than mighty Michigan team will hold a big L between their asses at the Big House this Saturday. The overall dismissive nature of the tone of every point and it’s snarkingness was so annoying. Our 2005-2011 Schiano teams would have kicked Michigan’s asses. This chump thinks Ash like is the team Rutgers will field / Not!!!!! His failure to recognize our skill positions and wide receivers was also disrespectful. I hope both Melton , Cruikshank and Haskins and Langan score TDs on Saturday in all various ways.
Holy wall of text. Use your goddamn paragraphs! 😃

 
If people start printing out the texts of you 2 the Brazilian rain forests are in jeopardy
Sure, but at least I break my overly verbose verbiage into small digestible chunks.

And anyway, I was already beating up on the Brazilian rain forest by buying a set of drums supposedly made from wood that was underwater in a Brazilian rain forest for 1000 years, or some such pure BS.
 
The writer of this blog piece is an arrogant, snarky prick.
Ive always enjoyed reading that writer's pieces. They are always very comprehensive.

The truth hurts, but we do suck as a consistent team. We rely on things not going well for the opponent, to win as our talent is outclassed by most of the big ten east and some of the big ten west.

its gonna take another 3-4 years of great top 25 recruiting classes to hang with the likes of Ohio st, penn st and Michigan when they are at their best imo.
 
Last edited:
Understood.

I’d only comment that, until we prove otherwise consistently, a bias towards viewing us as a punching bag, by the Big Ten elites, isn’t entirely unwarranted. Only RU fans will view last season’s near win against UM as evidence of anything. Do it again on Saturday, and a few non-RU fans will notice. Do it a several years running and win a couple, more people will notice.

Gaining respect, and deserving respect IMO, is not an overnight thing for us. Will take years of success.

I agree that it's fair for regular fans to feel that way until RU gains respect and proves itself as a more consistent winner.

That being said my comments are from the lens of this guy spending a significant amount of time in putting together a gameplay analysis blog each week. If he has to force-fit his analysis that RU will do something one way, based on one early season game and based on his own confirmation bias, it renders the analysis both incomplete and silly. Just my thoughts directed at those who commented that this guy's analysis/blog is "truth", great or spot on.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scarlet83
Article singles out Palliant (?) as your best lineman. The down linemen he will mostly face are solid but not anything special. And they like your running back Pacheco. Northern Illinois had one long maybe 75 yard drive in the first quarter that was mostly running plays. Gave me agita.

I can't figure out why Ohio State's defense looks so bad so far. They have 4 and 5 stars at EVERY damned position. I am afraid they will have things sorted out by the time we play at the end of November...
Of course they will have things together by then. That's their MO. Every year they lay an egg outside the conference and then come back in the conference and dominate.
 
I agree that it's fair for regular fans to feel that way until RU gains respect and proves itself as a more consistent winner.

That being said my comments are from the lens of this guy spending a significant amount of time in putting together a gameplay analysis blog each week. If he has to force-fit his analysis that RU will do something one way, based on one early season game and based on his own confirmation bias, it renders the analysis both incomplete and silly. Just my thoughts directed at those who commented that this guy's analysis/blog is "truth", great or spot on.
I understand. I'm not actually intended to defend his blog post. I obviously don't care at all about him or his blog. I view the guy as just another fan who expends more energy than most in writing about their games. I don't view him as any kind of journalist.
 
His audience is Michigan fans. It’s not supposed to be objective. It is clearly slanted.
Exactly. It's unreasonable of us to expect an opposing team's fans to be objective. We're not objective either, usually, especially you Al - and that's fine. 😉

And while it's nice when people are objective in such analysis, because it makes the analysis more useful in a general sense, his target audience is other UM fans, not us. So his lack of objectivity is pretty understandable.

Once we start beating up on the UM, OSU, PSU, etc., then we can start our own blogs and do our own analysis that are dismissive of our opponents. I can't wait. 😃
 
I understand. I'm not actually intended to defend his blog post. I obviously don't care at all about him or his blog. I view the guy as just another fan who expends more energy than most in writing about their games. I don't view him as any kind of journalist.

I really don't care much about him or his blog either. Never heard of him before and will likely never visit his blog again as this thread fades into the TKR archives. I admit to having a pet peeve about false or non-factual narratives. Other than that my stronger view into wanting to punch holes in his article was born out of curiosity as to why RU Fans on this board would jump in so favorably to support his obviously slanted and flawed analysis. By my count at this point in the thread roughly a third of the posters who have commented support his piece.
 
I really don't care much about him or his blog either. Never heard of him before and will likely never visit his blog again

to be fair he's just a kid getting paid to write this particular column this year. The website is owned by Brian Cook and is one of the most heavily visited CFB blogs of the last 15 ish years. He is dealing with personal issues and has stepped back this year while others from the site are taking on new duties.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rokodesh
Better than the offense, but:

"Still looking at the Syracuse game, because it remains the only P5 team that the Scarlet Knights have played. Syracuse was bad on both sides of the ball last season, but their offense was considerably worse than the defense, and that's something to keep in mind as we delve into these clips."

So, the only P5 team Michigan has played is Washington, who lost to an FCS team. Take a look in the mirror.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scarlet83
Better than the offense, but:

"Still looking at the Syracuse game, because it remains the only P5 team that the Scarlet Knights have played. Syracuse was bad on both sides of the ball last season, but their offense was considerably worse than the defense, and that's something to keep in mind as we delve into these clips."

So, the only P5 team Michigan has played is Washington, who lost to an FCS team. Take a look in the mirror.

The Vegas mirror says Washington would be a -17.5 favorite over Syracuse.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
The Vegas mirror says Washington would be a -17.5 favorite over Syracuse.
I'm not a gambler, except when I drive on the NJ Parkway. Is this the Vegas Mirror? (the transitive property thing comes to mind): 😉
cocaine%20lines%20mirror.jpg


Washington would likely beat Syracuse. But as we have seen before with the transitive property, it does not always work out that way.

Excited for tomorrow. Kind of concerned how RU will perform, but not leaving out the possibility of an upset, especially after seeing @rutgersal 's upset alert thread. Put Vegas money on that prediction.!!!!
 
I'm not a gambler, except when I drive on the NJ Parkway. Is this the Vegas Mirror? (the transitive property thing comes to mind): 😉
cocaine%20lines%20mirror.jpg


Washington would likely beat Syracuse. But as we have seen before with the transitive property, it does not always work out that way.

Excited for tomorrow. Kind of concerned how RU will perform, but not leaving out the possibility of an upset, especially after seeing @rutgersal 's upset alert thread. Put Vegas money on that prediction.!!!!

I saw a pair of CBSSportsNetwork goons take Rutgers and the points. So there's money on both sides.

I hope for a non controversial outcome (no suspicious ref calls or missed calls!) with zero injuries.

Go Big Ten
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
I saw a pair of CBSSportsNetwork goons take Rutgers and the points. So there's money on both sides.

I hope for a non controversial outcome (no suspicious ref calls or missed calls!) with zero injuries.

Go Big Ten
I’m not a gambler and know very little frankly but isn’t that how they come up with the line. They want money bet on both sides split fairly evenly right?
 
I’m not a gambler and know very little frankly but isn’t that how they come up with the line. They want money bet on both sides split fairly evenly right?

Vegas sets the initial line as to what they think will be the most likely result. Then, the public betting more on one team or the other moves the line until there is balance. The largest most successful programs have the most fans, but they also have the most haters, so they are not "a bad bet" over time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: rutgersguy1
Vegas sets the initial line as to what they think will be the most likely result. Then, the public betting more on one team or the other moves the line until there is balance. The largest most successful programs have the most fans, but they also have the most haters, so they are not "a bad bet" over time.

Well there are also programs not well know outside of their geographical that get underestimated. It's different this year, but Cincinnati was constantly underrated by the fans in the past, and the lines reflected it. In fact, RU in the first year or two after Schiano 1.0 got his team together covered something like 10 times each year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Eagleton96
Well there are also programs not well know outside of their geographical that get underestimated. It's different this year, but Cincinnati was constantly underrated by the fans in the past, and the lines reflected it. In fact, RU in the first year or two after Schiano 1.0 got his team together covered something like 10 times each year.

No FBS football teams are outside of Vegas' study. Yes, occasionally a team can be overvalued or undervalued for ten or more games. But it is like looking for a "system" to win at roulette. It isn't reliable.

That is why you see so many people attempting to SELL their betting selections instead of simply making their own genius insider bets and getting rich directly.
 
  • Love
Reactions: blockm2
No FBS football teams are outside of Vegas' study. Yes, occasionally a team can be overvalued or undervalued for ten or more games. But it is like looking for a "system" to win at roulette. It isn't reliable.

That is why you see so many people attempting to SELL their betting selections instead of simply making their own genius insider bets and getting rich directly.

But you yourself said the lines are adjusted based on how the public is betting. It's not the Vegas study that sets it up.
 
But you yourself said the lines are adjusted based on how the public is betting. It's not the Vegas study that sets it up.

The betting public is not consistent. Lines don't go up or down for consistent reasons. I mean, you are welcome to try to make betting college football as a side hustle. It is extremely tough to win enough long term to cover the vig. No matter what trends you follow or dismiss.
 
The Vegas mirror says Washington would be a -17.5 favorite over Syracuse.

And maybe that’s accurate. We’ll know later in the season. If there was a NET in college football, a road win at Syracuse would easily count as quad 2 at this point in time (they are 3-1 after beating Liberty tonight). Washington is currently 1-2, having beaten a bad Sun Belt team and lost to an FCS. A home win over them would probably be quad 3 right now. Again - maybe the comp changes as the season goes on but regardless of what Vegas thinks that’s what has happened on the field so far.
 
ADVERTISEMENT