A realistic look at our schedule for 2016

[Scarlet_Scourge]

The media and experts have us favored in only 1 game.
They also have us dead last in the B1G east division.

This is based on our terrible record and performance last season and losing our best player to the NFL.

However, we know better right? It can't be that bad!?!

Looking at the schedule I actually see 4 games that we can win, even if we are only favored in one of them.

These are Howard, New Mexico, Illinois and Indiana.

I also see 5 games that we will sadly have little chance of winning.

These are OSU, UM, MSU, Iowa, and Washington.

Finally, I see 3 games that will have a more realistic chance of pulling an upset.

These are PSU, Maryland and Minnesota.

So using this I say we have a realistic chance to win 4 games and maybe as much as 7 games (though unlikely).

While the odds of getting 6 wins and making a bowl game is rather slim, it is not as impossible as everyone in the press is making it out to be.

With so many question marks on defense, offense and special teams, we could easily prove the experts right.

However, I don't think that will happen, IMHO.

 

[RUsojo]

You can get under 6 wins -320. Do it now. There's a very realistic change we start the season 1-5. Best case 2-4.

If we have 4 games we COULD win chances are we don't win all 4 and 3 games we COULD pull and upset we don't do more than 1.

Luckily all we need out of this year is improved to be successful is have the recruits sign on the dotted line.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

As an outsider I think this is a fair assessment. It's not impossible to see RU reaching a bowl game this season, though I think it is rather unlikely. I think 3-5 wins is most likely, but if a few balls bounce the other way who knows...

 

[cicero grimes]

I am in agreement with you. We played MD evenly in the last two years winning one close game and losing another. I think we are still even and its a toss up. Also Minn without Kill will be interesting. Finally if you know who starts slow with losses to Temple, Pitt and UM their season may be over when they get to us. Do I expect a bowl; no, but one is possible if things break right.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

You can get under 6 wins -320. Do it now. There's a very realistic change we start the season 1-5. Best case 2-4.

If we have 4 games we COULD win chances are we don't win all 4 and 3 games we COULD pull and upset we don't do more than 1.

Luckily all we need out of this year is improved to be successful is have the recruits sign on the dotted line.

Those 4 games aren't too bad, I don't think. The swing games, we can easily lose all three, but at least we have somewhat of a chance to win one depending on how things play out.

I am sure that Ash has inform all of the recruits before they committed that this year may get out of hand. Anyone who is just waiting to see how the season plays out is not serious about coming to Rutgers.

 

[Tango Two]

I hope I'm wrong, but I think many are underestimating how bad our offense just might be this year.

New system with two QB that don't fit, and a transfer in with no college experience.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

I think we still have some good players and now they have good coaching... and hopefully, some better game management. Flood droop in recruiting won't hit us badly for another year or so but I am no expert on what's in the channel and how development of those guys is coming.

I honestly think this year will be impossible to predict... at least I hope so (based on the general expert opinions out there that predict a dire outcome).

 

[RUHouston]

I think what this year will show is exactly how bare the cupboard is/was under the previous Coaching staff. I won't expect miracles but if the team plays hard and shows passion and drive I think the fans and recruits will see that.

We may sneak a few wins in there for games we're underdogs but who knows?

I don't expect parity with the elites but hopefully we're better off than we think.

 

[Plum Street]

Remember by all accounts the talent level in the program stinks . Ash hasn't coached a down yet so there will be growing pains with things . I would be surprised if he doesn't have a few game management mishaps . So 5-6 wins with only one bad blowout would be great this year and keep the recruiting momentum.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

I think what this year will show is exactly how bare the cupboard is/was under the previous Coaching staff. I won't expect miracles but if the team plays hard and shows passion and drive I think the fans and recruits will see that.

We may sneak a few wins in there for games we're underdogs but who knows?

I don't expect parity with the elites but hopefully we're better off than we think.

Why do you think the cupboard is bare? Based on what?

247sports did a report where they analyzed the recruiting results of each B1G school over the years up until Dec. of 2015. Rutgers was 7th overall in the quality of recruits. What was pointed out was the lack of quality coaching to get the most out of that talent. Mining NJ recruits are better than majority of recruits that come out of Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, etc. Like most here say if a 3 star kid from Florida was playing in NJ he would be a 4 star. The same can be said for NJ kids in those other B1G state with the exception of Ohio, Maryland and Pa.

 

[knightfan7]

Why in God's name anyone would call a victory over Maryland an upset is beyond me.

 

[scottydont]

I think (hope) that this season will show just how bare our coaching cupboard was last year. I think we have the talent, but never had the coaches to use it properly. This season could be a great start to Ash's tenure.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

Why in God's name anyone would call a victory over Maryland an upset is beyond me.

They have far more talent on their roster. Lots of 4 star players. Their recruiting was very good it was just they had a terrible HC like we did. Most sites are only giving us a 30% chance of winning that game.

 

[mildone]

On paper, I think it's going to be a rough season w/early fits and starts as some among our coaching, staff, including Ash, gets their first B1G in-game experience in their new roles. Also, our players are learning a new system and there is no substitute for game experience. So there will be fits and start there as well.

First third to half the season could be pretty ugly at times and I will hold off on judging the coaching staff or our player's talent until after game four. After that, I hope and expect to see improvement in all phases, although it's a very tough schedule so some reading between the lines might be needed to recognize that improvement.

It's not all bad news though. I think Mehringer is a budding football genius and I think he's going to find ways to help the QB's be more comfortable and productive.

Seems there's reasons to expect that experience on the defensive side of the coaching staff (including Ash) is going to make a difference - not sure how much, but maybe more than many expect. That's predicated on the D line being and staying healthy and providing enough pressure to ease things for the inexperienced LBs.

In my heart, this team went through hell last season and they are due for some really good luck. If we stay healthier than usual, if we get more bad calls that go our way instead of against us, and if the OC and DC get some lucky breaks on schemes and play calls, we could shock some teams and go bowling.

 

[PedroPete3]

How we are picked below Indiana just doesn't make sense. We beat them twice and they just lost their starting QB and RB to graduation. And we are returning most of our defense and offense minus Caroo.

I think the team will surprise these "experts" and "fans" on this site...

 

[RU205]

I have RU starting the season off 4-0 and finishing with an 8-4 record.

At 4-0 they will be ranked in the top 15 going into OSU who will be ranked in the top 10. Should be a good game.

 

[knightfan7]

They have far more talent on their roster. Lots of 4 star players. Their recruiting was very good it was just they had a terrible HC like we did. Most sites are only giving us a 30% chance of winning that game.

Far more talent? Read what Doug said above.

Other than OSU, no team in the B1G East returns less starters than Maryland. Are you going to assume the new guys are automatically better than the guys who beat them out previously? 8 of the 12 projected new starters are Seniors. If they're so good, why haven't they been starters earlier?

Are their QB's magically going to stop throwing Int's? They had 28 last year compared to RU's 12, not to mention they struggled to complete 50%.

Why is the coaching change at UMd any better than the one at RU? Both are unknowns at this point.

IMO, Maryland has an advantage at WR and LB. RU at OL, DL, and RB. Overall Kicking game, DB where RU has a lot more starting experience even tho they're younger, and QB because of the move to Spread are TBD.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

Looking at the raw data, it is clear MD is more talented than RU. What that means on the field is up for debate, but take a look at the data from 247...

2013
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 3 four/five stars, 83.51 avg
- Rutgers: 10th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 80.30 avg (lowest in B1G)

2014
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 4 four/five stars, 84.53 avg
- Rutgers: 10th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 79.40 avg (lowest in B1G)

2015
- Maryland: 8th in B1G, 2 four/five stars, 84.00 avg
- Rutgers: 11th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 82.95 avg (3rd lowest in B1G)

2016
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 3 four/five stars, 84.40 avg
- Rutgers: 12th in B1G, 0 four/five stars, 82.65 avg (3rd lowest in B1G)

Make no mistake, Ash has a hole to dig out of in terms of the roster's overall talent level.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

Facts don't lie, but like I said, that doesn't mean that we can't beat them. But they will be favored by nearly everyone.

 

[newwavedave1]

Lots of question marks this season. Can't wait to see how everything plays out. No blowout losses and 4 or more wins would be enough to keep me happy. Add no mass exodus of commits after failing to win a National or Big Ten Title. :okay:

 

[koleszar]

They have far more talent on their roster. Lots of 4 star players. Their recruiting was very good it was just they had a terrible HC like we did. Most sites are only giving us a 30% chance of winning that game.

Sorry but this is just wrong their last 4 classes ranked #55, 48, 33, 36. Their recruiting wasn't very good, but average to below average.. Edsall's major problem was that he couldn't recruit. His biggest attribute was that he always got the most out of his talent.

Most sites have jumped on the bandwagon that someone started that Maryland is going to rebound in a big way, mostly due to their schedule. They have more holes to fill than RU and are starting the same rejects at QB that make Laviano look like a 1st team All-American. They only return 5 from a defense that gave RU a run for worst in P5. They'll start strong after playing Sister Mary's school of the blind for the 1st 4 games, then reality hits.

 

[knightfan7]

Facts don't lie, but like I said, that doesn't mean that we can't beat them. But they will be favored by nearly everyone.

What facts? Facts begin and end with results, not recruiting services.

I gave you facts. Real tangible facts. You give me what a service thinks about potential. The college football landscape is littered with failed potential.

Why play the games? Just declare the team with more 4 stars the automatic winner.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

What facts? Facts begin and end with results, not recruiting services.

I gave you facts. Real tangible facts. You give me what a service thinks about potential. The college football landscape is littered with failed potential.

Why play the games? Just declare the team with more 4 stars the automatic winner.

Don't kill the messenger.. geez. Someone wanted to know why that win would be considered an upset and I gave the reason why they would consider it an upset.

I still think we have a pretty good chance to win, but if you want to know why most expert disagree with me, that is why.

 

[koleszar]

Looking at the raw data, it is clear MD is more talented than RU. What that means on the field is up for debate, but take a look at the data from 247...

2013
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 3 four/five stars, 83.51 avg
- Rutgers: 10th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 80.30 avg (lowest in B1G)

2014
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 4 four/five stars, 84.53 avg
- Rutgers: 10th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 79.40 avg (lowest in B1G)

2015
- Maryland: 8th in B1G, 2 four/five stars, 84.00 avg
- Rutgers: 11th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 82.95 avg (3rd lowest in B1G)

2016
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 3 four/five stars, 84.40 avg
- Rutgers: 12th in B1G, 0 four/five stars, 82.65 avg (3rd lowest in B1G)

Make no mistake, Ash has a hole to dig out of in terms of the roster's overall talent level.

We're talking about this year's squad right? So your going to include the 2016 class for this year and not include the 2012 class. You really think those 2016 guys are going to make much of an impact this year?

Those special select few guys are going to play special teams and get spot duty. I think the 5th year seniors on our squad are going to make a little more noise than them. Common, this coming from a guy who said psu has been held back by youth and inexperience.

 

[knightfan7]

Don't kill the messenger.. geez. Someone wanted to know why that win would be considered an upset and I gave the reason why they would consider it an upset.

I still think we have a pretty good chance to win, but if you want to know why most expert disagree with me, that is why.

Don't mean to be a jerk, I just love debating this stuff. Maybe I get a little too passionate.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

Don't mean to be a jerk, I just love debating this stuff. Maybe I get a little too passionate.

It's all good! I love it, I rather us fans be passionate than indifferent.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

We're talking about this year's squad right? So your going to include the 2016 class for this year and not include the 2012 class. You really think those 2016 guys are going to make much of an impact this year?

Those special select few guys are going to play special teams and get spot duty. I think the 5th year seniors on our squad are going to make a little more noise than them. Common, this coming from a guy who said psu has been held back by youth and inexperience.

That's a fair point that I overlooked when glancing at what players were still left over on rosters. Rutgers recruited better than Maryland in 2012, absolutely, but that is still one just one out of five classes in which RU would have the edge. And to be fair, Rutgers' recruiting since that class has been downright awful. I have to stand by the idea that MD's overall talent level is higher.

I do think the freshman class deserves to be included, though. Plenty of very talented freshmen around the country come in and make an impact these days.

 

[IheartRutgers]

I think we will win the following:
Washington (their WTF game and they will be looking ahead)
Indiana
Illinois
Maryland
Howard
New Mexico
Penn state

We will lose the rest (as much as it pains me to lose to Michigan)

7-5

 

[Knight Shift]

Don't mean to be a jerk, I just love debating this stuff. Maybe I get a little too passionate.

If being passionate is synonymous with being a jerk, please be a huge jerk. ;)

 

[PaKnight]

That's a fair point that I overlooked when glancing at what players were still left over on rosters. Rutgers recruited better than Maryland in 2012, absolutely, but that is still one just one out of five classes in which RU would have the edge. And to be fair, Rutgers' recruiting since that class has been downright awful. I have to stand by the idea that MD's overall talent level is higher.

I do think the freshman class deserves to be included, though. Plenty of very talented freshmen around the country come in and make an impact these days.

They have not looked more talented on the field the last two seasons.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

We're talking about this year's squad right? So your going to include the 2016 class for this year and not include the 2012 class. You really think those 2016 guys are going to make much of an impact this year?

Those special select few guys are going to play special teams and get spot duty. I think the 5th year seniors on our squad are going to make a little more noise than them. Common, this coming from a guy who said psu has been held back by youth and inexperience.

To follow up, I was able to take a closer look at what Rutgers and Maryland have left from their 2012 classes, and I'd have to say Maryland has a slight advantage here as well. I tried to only include players that have made an impact on the field, but feel free to correct me...

RU: Agudosi (17 catches last season), Denman (starting OL), Hamilton (talented but health is a question), Lambert (43 tackles), Muller (starting OL), Pinnix-Odrick (1 sack)

MD: Braglio (3 sacks), Brown (331 rushing yards), Culmer (15 catches), Dunn (OL), Hill (played all 12 games at DB), Hills (QB), Jacobs (35 catches, leading receiver), Rowe (QB)

I'm not suggesting MD has this enormous talent edge over RU, and like I said in my initial post it doesn't guarantee anything on the field, but MD does, in fact, have an edge (if you put stock in recruiting rankings, which I do, as they generally are strong indicators of future success).

 

[Knight Shift]

Looking at the raw data, it is clear MD is more talented than RU. What that means on the field is up for debate, but take a look at the data from 247...

2013
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 3 four/five stars, 83.51 avg
- Rutgers: 10th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 80.30 avg (lowest in B1G)

2014
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 4 four/five stars, 84.53 avg
- Rutgers: 10th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 79.40 avg (lowest in B1G)

2015
- Maryland: 8th in B1G, 2 four/five stars, 84.00 avg
- Rutgers: 11th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 82.95 avg (3rd lowest in B1G)

2016
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 3 four/five stars, 84.40 avg
- Rutgers: 12th in B1G, 0 four/five stars, 82.65 avg (3rd lowest in B1G)

Make no mistake, Ash has a hole to dig out of in terms of the roster's overall talent level.

I am not phased by four/five star players.
Christian Hackenberg did not perform at all like a 5 star QB
Don't want to name a specific player, but we had a 5 star RB that was a bust on the field--great kid and smart, but did not translate to on the field success.

Maryland's 4/5 stars:
2013: Deon Long--gone to NFL; Yannick Ngakoue- gone to NFL; Derwin Gray-as of the end of May, currently in competition with tackles Michael Dunn and Damian Prince for the starting job at either right or left tackle; Andrew Isaacs--TE-- 2 receptions for 3 yards in his career; William Likely--now we are talking about someone who has acted like a 4/5 star player;

2012- OL- Damian Prince -legitimate 4/5 star; DE-Jesse Aniebonam---legitimate 4/5 star; Derwin Gray listed again-he had to go JUCO in 2013; Juwann Winfree--Gone;

2015- Adam McClean- OL--redshirt; DJ Moore-WR --we'll see; Quarvez Boulware- OL-redshirt/

Without looking at Rutgers 4/5 stars, that list of 9 4/5 stars from 2013-15 has three players that have performed like legitimate 4/5 star players. Three players are gone, so they are down to 6 4/5 star players on the field, and at least two of them have a lot to prove.

I think you have been hanging around on Scarlet Nation too long. Our mantra is

 

[RU-ROCS]

As an outsider I think this is a fair assessment. It's not impossible to see RU reaching a bowl game this season, though I think it is rather unlikely. I think 3-5 wins is most likely, but if a few balls bounce the other way who knows...

I see it the same way.

 

[Knight Shift]

Why do you think the cupboard is bare? Based on what?

247sports did a report where they analyzed the recruiting results of each B1G school over the years up until Dec. of 2015. Rutgers was 7th overall in the quality of recruits. What was pointed out was the lack of quality coaching to get the most out of that talent. Mining NJ recruits are better than majority of recruits that come out of Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, etc. Like most here say if a 3 star kid from Florida was playing in NJ he would be a 4 star. The same can be said for NJ kids in those other B1G state with the exception of Ohio, Maryland and Pa.

 

[Blitz8RUCrazy]

I think we win

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, PSU, New Mexico, Maryland and Howard to go 7-5

I think our spread O is going to surprise a LOT of people (in a good way) as the season continues. And it will put a decent amount of points on the board against a lot of teams on our schedule. Also our D under Ash should be very disciplined (think of vaunted Navy defenses of the past). I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

[knightfan7]

To follow up, I was able to take a closer look at what Rutgers and Maryland have left from their 2012 classes, and I'd have to say Maryland has a slight advantage here as well. I tried to only include players that have made an impact on the field, but feel free to correct me...

RU: Agudosi (17 catches last season), Denman (starting OL), Hamilton (talented but health is a question), Lambert (43 tackles), Muller (starting OL), Pinnix-Odrick (1 sack)

MD: Braglio (3 sacks), Brown (331 rushing yards), Culmer (15 catches), Dunn (OL), Hill (played all 12 games at DB), Hills (QB), Jacobs (35 catches, leading receiver), Rowe (QB)

I'm not suggesting MD has this enormous talent edge over RU, and like I said in my initial post it doesn't guarantee anything on the field, but MD does, in fact, have a talent advantage.

You omitted RU Center Derrick Nelson who was in that class. That's 3/5 of the OL from the class.

Look at what Hills and Rowe have done. They'd be run out of town by you guys if they played QB at RU.

Despite Maryland having issues for years at DB, I don't believe Hill is projected to start.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

I am not phased by four/five star players.
Christian Hackenberg did not perform at all like a 5 star QB
Don't want to name a specific player, but we had a 5 star RB that was a bust on the field--great kid and smart, but did not translate to on the field success.

Maryland's 4/5 stars:
2013: Deon Long--gone to NFL; Yannick Ngakoue- gone to NFL; Derwin Gray-as of the end of May, currently in competition with tackles Michael Dunn and Damian Prince for the starting job at either right or left tackle; Andrew Isaacs--TE-- 2 receptions for 3 yards in his career; William Likely--now we are talking about someone who has acted like a 4/5 star player;

2012- OL- Damian Prince -legitimate 4/5 star; DE-Jesse Aniebonam---legitimate 4/5 star; Derwin Gray listed again-he had to go JUCO in 2013; Juwann Winfree--Gone;

2015- Adam McClean- OL--redshirt; DJ Moore-WR --we'll see; Quarvez Boulware- OL-redshirt/

Without looking at Rutgers 4/5 stars, that list of 9 4/5 stars from 2013-15 has three players that have performed like legitimate 4/5 star players. Three players are gone, so they are down to 6 4/5 star players on the field, and at least two of them have a lot to prove.

Although your point about on-field contributions is well-taken, here's the problem as it relates to the comparison of these teams:

You listed 3 blue-chip kids that have contributed for Maryland. Over that same time period, the blue-chip kids signed by Rutgers are Barnwell (gone) and Ford (gone).

No matter how you slice it, MD has brought in more talent cumulatively over the past 4-5 years, and it stands to reason its current roster is more talented as a result.

 

[Scarlet16E]

Recruiting class rankings do not translate directly to wins and losses. Some teams play well above the recruiting rankings ( see may).
Some play well below ( see Hoke's Michigan or Franklins Penn St).
Hopefully Ash and co. Make our team one that plays above its recruiting rankings.

 

[Blitz8RUCrazy]

Recruiting class rankings do not translate directly to wins and losses. Some teams play well above the recruiting rankings ( see may).
Some play well below ( see Hoke's Michigan or Franklins Penn St).
Hopefully Ash and co. Make our team one that plays above its recruiting rankings.

A spread also does not NEED high star ranked players to be successful in putting up points since it is based on exploiting mismatches.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

I think we win

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, PSU, New Mexico, Maryland and Howard to go 7-5

I like to break the schedule down each year into nonconference, home B1G and away B1G. Here's how I see it for Rutgers this fall:

Non: at Washington, Howard, New Mexico
- Best case: 2-1
- Worst case: 1-2
- Most likely: 2-1

Home: Iowa, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Penn State
- Best Case: 3-2
- Worst Case: 1-4
- Most Likely: 2-3

Away: Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan State, Maryland
- Best Case: 2-2
- Worst Case: 0-4
- Most Likely: 1-3

Total
- Best Case: 7-5
- Worst Case: 2-10
- Most Likely: 5-7

The spot I feel least confident about is saying 2-3 is the Most Likely result in your B1G home games, because I can definitely see RU losing to Iowa, UM, and PSU, and splitting the other two.

tl;dr I think the O/U of 4.5 is spot-on.