An alternative way to look at Rutgers from NCAA perspective.....

[Greene Rice FIG]

If I am on the NCAA committee what I really want to know is given a team's schedule how would the last at large team in the field expect to do with the same schedule.

I took #45 kenpom team's ADJ EM and tried to see how many expected wins they would have with RU's schedule. At this point the 45th best team would have 16.3 wins.

MARGIN WIN PROB CUM WIN Wed 11-10 H Lehigh 20.797​ 98%​ 0.98​ Sat 11-13 H Merrimack 20.258​ 98%​ 1.96​ Tue 11-16 H NJIT 22.113​ 98%​ 2.94​ Thu 11-18 A DePaul 4.291​ 65%​ 3.59​ Mon 11-22 H Lafayette 20.867​ 98%​ 4.57​ Sat 11-27 A Massachusetts 9.233​ 80%​ 5.37​ Tue 11-30 H Clemson 4.977​ 70%​ 6.07​ Fri 12-03 A Illinois -5.901​ 27%​ 6.34​ Thu 12-09 H Purdue -5.089​ 31%​ 6.65​ Sun 12-12 A Seton Hall -2.905​ 38%​ 7.03​ Thu 12-30 H Maine 27.762​ 99%​ 8.02​ Sat 1-01 H Central Connecticut 24.724​ 99%​ 9.01​ Tue 1-04 H Michigan 0.308​ 51%​ 9.52​ Sat 1-08 H Nebraska 11.746​ 85%​ 10.37​ Tue 1-11 A Penn St. 1.064​ 54%​ 10.91​ Sat 1-15 A Maryland 2.38​ 61%​ 11.52​ Wed 1-19 H Iowa -1.372​ 45%​ 11.97​ Sat 1-22 A Minnesota 4.431​ 69%​ 12.66​ Tue 1-25 H Maryland 5.81​ 73%​ 13.39​ Sat 1-29 A Nebraska 8.316​ 76%​ 14.15​ Tue 2-01 A Northwestern -0.707​ 47%​ 14.62​ Sat 2-05 H Michigan St. -0.098​ 50%​ 15.12​ Wed 2-09 H Ohio St. -2.149​ 41%​ 15.53​ Sat 2-12 A Wisconsin -2.94​ 38%​ 15.91​ Wed 2-16 H Illinois -2.471​ 40%​ 16.31​ Sun 2-20 A Purdue -8.519​ 23%​ 16.54​ Wed 2-23 A Michigan -3.122​ 36%​ 16.9​ Sat 2-26 H Wisconsin 0.49​ 51%​ 17.41​ Wed 3-02 A Indiana -1.715​ 43%​ 17.84​ Sun 3-06 H Penn St. 4.494​ 66%​ 18.5​

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[ecojew]

Interesting. Essentially the same record but with a very different grouping of wins and losses, as well as trending the wrong way late in the season from how Rutgers is doing. And that team would have just one Q1 victory (and that one yet to come), with a possible second one depending upon whether or not Michigan gets back into the Q1 category.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Interesting. Essentially the same record but with a very different grouping of wins and losses, as well as trending the wrong way late in the season from how Rutgers is doing. And that team would have just one Q1 victory (and that one yet to come), with a possible second one depending upon whether or not Michigan gets back into the Q1 category.

if you summed up the probabilities you would get 3.5 Q1 wins so far (out of 9). So we have outperformed by 2.5 there.

They would have 8.4 wins OOC and 7.9 wins in B1G.

We had to be 6-0 in cupcakes and at worst 2-2 in (at DePaul, at SHU, at MASS, Clemson). If we were we'd be 1 game from LOCKED status

 

[Groz]

I wonder if the fact that the chair of the tournament this year is the commissioner of a non-P5 conference(Tom Burnett-Southland Conference Commissioner) would ever have any impact on adding more mid-majors and leaving off a few P5 teams?

Bac, do you think this could have any impact at all?

Or the fact that so many Big Teams made it last year and most fell on their faces in the tournament last year, so this year the Big could be punished a little?

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[Scarlet Shack]

This is interesting

Now …can you do what the 22nd team would be …this is a mid 6 seed …and what their expected record would be

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

			MARGIN	WIN PROB	CUM WIN	ADJ em
Wed 11-10	H	Lehigh	23.541​	99%​	0.99​	-13.01​
Sat 11-13	H	Merrimack	23.002​	99%​	1.98​	-12.24​
Tue 11-16	H	NJIT	24.857​	99%​	2.97​	-14.89​
Thu 11-18	A	DePaul	7.035​	85%​	3.82​	5.67​
Mon 11-22	H	Lafayette	23.611​	99%​	4.81​	-13.11​
Sat 11-27	A	Massachusetts	11.977​	95%​	5.76​	-1.39​
Tue 11-30	H	Clemson	7.721​	87%​	6.63​	9.59​
Fri 12-03	A	Illinois	-3.157​	32%​	6.95​	20.23​
Thu 12-09	H	Purdue	-2.345​	37%​	7.32​	23.97​
Sun 12-12	A	Seton Hall	-0.161​	49%​	7.81​	15.95​
Thu 12-30	H	Maine	30.506​	99%​	8.8​	-22.96​
Sat 1-01	H	Central Connecticut	27.468​	99%​	9.79​	-18.62​
Tue 1-04	H	Michigan	3.052​	69%​	10.48​	16.26​
Sat 1-08	H	Nebraska	14.49​	99%​	11.47​	-0.08​
Tue 1-11	A	Penn St.	3.808​	71%​	12.18​	10.28​
Sat 1-15	A	Maryland	5.124​	75%​	12.93​	8.4​
Wed 1-19	H	Iowa	1.372​	56%​	13.49​	18.66​
Sat 1-22	A	Minnesota	7.175​	85%​	14.34​	5.47​
Tue 1-25	H	Maryland	8.554​	89%​	15.23​	8.4​
Sat 1-29	A	Nebraska	11.06​	93%​	16.16​	-0.08​
Tue 2-01	A	Northwestern	2.037​	63%​	16.79​	12.81​
Sat 2-05	H	Michigan St.	2.646​	67%​	17.46​	16.84​
Wed 2-09	H	Ohio St.	0.595​	53%​	17.99​	19.77​
Sat 2-12	A	Wisconsin	-0.196​	48%​	18.47​	16​
Wed 2-16	H	Illinois	0.273​	52%​	18.99​	20.23​
Sun 2-20	A	Purdue	-5.775​	19%​	19.18​	23.97​
Wed 2-23	A	Michigan	-0.378​	47%​	19.65​	16.26​
Sat 2-26	H	Wisconsin	3.234​	70%​	20.35​	16​
Wed 3-02	A	Indiana	1.029​	54%​	20.89​	14.25​
Sun 3-06	H	Penn St.	7.238​	85%​	21.74​	10.28​

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

4.57 wins in Q1 vs our 6

#21 smacks UMASS, Clemson and DePaul ....2.67 wins

 

[LukeRU90]

Brilliant, thanks!

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

But then if you run the loop with our actual Ken Pom - what does it predict? Surely not what happened.

Our BIG game outcomes are nuts. We are 8-1 vs the top 9 teams in the BIG. 2-4 vs. the 5 bottom teams. Go figure.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

These are kenpom adjusted EMs.

kenpom would expect Rutgers to do much worse than our actual record.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

What’s going to be interesting to see , is do this in three weeks and see what our kenpom adjusted offense and defensive numbers for the last 10 games end up being …and then apply the to our total schedule. Probably gets to around 23-7

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

These are kenpom adjusted EMs.

kenpom would expect Rutgers to do much worse than our actual record.

That’s my point - we’re not only confusing Vegas, we seem to be the anti correlation. Provided we have our starting roster in tact, the harder the opponent the better the outcomes have been for us (so weird).

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

What’s going to be interesting to see , is do this in three weeks and see what our kenpom adjusted offense and defensive numbers for the last 10 games end up being …and then apply the to our total schedule. Probably gets to around 23-7

Last 10 includes some bad games. The streak is really 4

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

That’s my point - we’re not only confusing Vegas, we seem to be the anti correlation. Provided we have our starting roster in tact, the harder the opponent the better the outcomes have been for us (so weird).

Kenpom and Bart is so bad because of how poorly we were OOC. Losing to Lafayette isn’t a killer as it is one game out of 25. It is more all the games where we won by a small margin against terrible teams.

ken and Bart is looking at 1,750 possessions. It doesn’t care at all who wins. Actually 3,500 because of offense and defense. Does the possession end in 0,1,2 or 3? That’s all that matters and the result is adjusted for competition.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

What’s going to be interesting to see , is do this in three weeks and see what our kenpom adjusted offense and defensive numbers for the last 10 games end up being …and then apply the to our total schedule. Probably gets to around 23-7

We are 45th in our last 10 games (bubble team)

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

88th offense
38th defense

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I have to do a deeper dive because we should be higher than that given the opponent in those 10 games and the fact we put scored them by 45. That is way higher than the expected amount of the 42nd ranked team I used.