Another Nor'easter 3/12-13; likely light to moderate snow...

[RU848789]

Yet another bust for Jersey City. That makes four busts for the season. Is it the urban heat island?

In very marginal setups like this with surface temps at or slightly above freezing and light to moderate intensity, the urban heat island could make a small difference in accumulations. However, I doubt it was the main factor, since for several of these recent storms, plenty of urban locations have gotten significant snows.

For example, every analysis I've seen of the 3/7 event which had only 3-5" from maybe Carteret to JC/Newark/Hoboken and most of NYC, including more residential areas that don't have as much of a heat island effect, has shown that the amount of precip that fell happened to be somewhat less than surrounding areas, due to subsidence (see map below) and equally urban areas from Trenton to Philly had no problem accumulating 6-12" in that storm.

 

[RU848789]

Mega bust.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Well done playa!
[cheers]

 

[Scarlet dollar]

Mega bust.

It's not a bust if it wasn't predicted.

 

[BigEastPhil]

Is there something brewing for next Tuesday? The milfs in the deli were chatting about this as well as their hampsters acting a bit zany

 

[RU848789]

Now eyes turn towards the potential snowstorm next Tuesday. While the potential is major, it's so far out many things could make this a non-event - however, these past 3 nor'easters were all showing up as major storms on some models 7-10 days out, i.e., most major storms do show up well in advance, but not all pan out (and very few major storms give no indication of being major storms 7-10 days out). If this still looks potent by Thursday/Friday, I'll start a thread.

Is there something brewing for next Tuesday? The milfs in the deli were chatting about this as well as their hampsters acting a bit zany

Mentioned this threat a few days ago and made the post above this morning in this thread. Yes, there is the potential for a major winter storm next Tues/Weds. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen the media and pro mets talking so early about a potential threat ever. The NWS is already talking about it, TV mets are mentioning it and The Weather Channel has actually been doing segments on it every half hour with winter weather expert Tom Niziol.

He's been doing a very nice job of explaining the ongoing pattern I've been talking about for weeks, with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (a "blocking" high near/over Greenland) forcing the northern branch of the jet stream to dive deep down into the SE US and then return up the east coast, going around the west side of that blocking high; when the jet stream takes that path, it drives colder than normal air into the eastern US and is conducive for cyclogenesis of coastal storms off the east coast, producing wintry nor'easters. There's no "guarantee" this pattern will produce snow, as many other things have to work out just right for us to get snow in this area (this isn't Syracuse), but patterns like this have historically been quite cold and snowy on average.

Anyway, since so many are already talking about it, if tonight's model runs continue to show major snowstorms threatening the NE US (including our area), I'll go ahead and start a thread, just so people can find the info more easily.

 

[e5fdny]

Mentioned this threat a few days ago and made the post above this morning in this thread. Yes, there is the potential for a major winter storm next Tues/Weds. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen the media and pro mets talking so early about a potential threat ever. The NWS is already talking about it, TV mets are mentioning it and The Weather Channel has actually been doing segments on it every half hour with winter weather expert Tom Niziol.

Anyway, since so many are already talking about it, if tonight's model runs continue to show major snowstorms threatening the NE US (including our area), I'll go ahead and start a thread, just so people can find the info more easily.

 

[BigEastPhil]

Mentioned this threat a few days ago and made the post above this morning in this thread. Yes, there is the potential for a major winter storm next Tues/Weds. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen the media and pro mets talking so early about a potential threat ever. The NWS is already talking about it, TV mets are mentioning it and The Weather Channel has actually been doing segments on it every half hour with winter weather expert Tom Niziol.

He's been doing a very nice job of explaining the ongoing pattern I've been talking about for weeks, with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (a "blocking" high near/over Greenland) forcing the northern branch of the jet stream to dive deep down into the SE US and then return up the east coast, going around the west side of that blocking high; when the jet stream takes that path, it drives colder than normal air into the eastern US and is conducive for cyclogenesis of coastal storms off the east coast, producing wintry nor'easters. There's no "guarantee" this pattern will produce snow, as many other things have to work out just right for us to get snow in this area (this isn't Syracuse), but patterns like this have historically been quite cold and snowy on average.

Anyway, since so many are already talking about it, if tonight's model runs continue to show major snowstorms threatening the NE US (including our area), I'll go ahead and start a thread, just so people can find the info more easily.

Nick Gregory was actually mentioning tonight about the potential storm next tuesday based on current guidance albeit a week out but you can tell by his mannerisms that what he saw was "major" - again albeit a week off.

 

[RocktheRac]

Dan Zarrow hinting at a storm next Tuesday although he doesn't like saying anything 6 days out. He also mentioned something brewing for the weekend March24/25.

 

[RUPete]

This sucks. This crap needs to get out of here and make way for spring.

 

[bac2therac]

This sucks. This crap needs to get out of here and make way for spring.

some chatter of cold start to April

 

[OTBOTOR]

NYC got hosed.

 

[RU848789]

NYC got hosed.

View embedded media

Thanks for the map - slightly annoyed that the NWS would post this to FB/Twitter before their own website (not there still) and just asked them to post it on the winter weather page of their website.

I also updated my post on the last page to include the NWS-NYC predicted and actual snowfall numbers. They also did pretty well with this storm, except for NYC, as discussed in that post.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...t-to-moderate-snow.141546/page-6#post-3223361

 

[Tango Two]