This isn't behind a pay wall. The big problem is that high school graduating classes are going to drop between 2025 and 2032.https://www.nj.com/education/2023/0...-very-very-traumatic-times-official-says.html
"Are More New Jersey Colleges Doomed to Collapse?"
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Yes, the long term demographic decline of traditional college aged people is the underlying macro problem.
The extra Jersey centric wrinkle is for decades, from the late 80's to the Christie college bonds, the State invested zero dollars in capital spending for public colleges. All the building done over that period was borrowed money on the College's, not the State's, balance sheet. While almost all States divested from spending on public higher ed over that period, NJ is close to the front of the pack. Most NJ publics have a lot of borrowed money hanging over them making debt servicing a significant portion of the annual operating budgets.
NJCU is the worst example.
Not addressing the small privates. I won't say I don't care, but a certain Darwinian culling might be in order. We are seeing some of that already.
All that being said, Rutgers won't be unaffected, but we can weather the storm better than most.
The extra Jersey centric wrinkle is for decades, from the late 80's to the Christie college bonds, the State invested zero dollars in capital spending for public colleges. All the building done over that period was borrowed money on the College's, not the State's, balance sheet. While almost all States divested from spending on public higher ed over that period, NJ is close to the front of the pack. Most NJ publics have a lot of borrowed money hanging over them making debt servicing a significant portion of the annual operating budgets.
NJCU is the worst example.
Not addressing the small privates. I won't say I don't care, but a certain Darwinian culling might be in order. We are seeing some of that already.
All that being said, Rutgers won't be unaffected, but we can weather the storm better than most.
A really niche example
NY Times
Mildly interesting side note. Their path went through NJ. The former Marconi, Later Camp Evans, property in Wall.
Info Age
NY Times
The Second Life of a Christian College in Manhattan Nears Its End
The King’s College, which draws students from around the country to Manhattan, has not been able to recover from enrollment and financial losses.Mildly interesting side note. Their path went through NJ. The former Marconi, Later Camp Evans, property in Wall.
Info Age
For some reason it's saying subscriber exclusive for me. I do see the first 3 schools mentioned though.
I do get why a school like Rider is suffering...the pricetag isn't justifiable. Hell, outside of Princeton, and perhaps Stevens with a scholarship, which NJ private schools are?
I don't get why Willy P and NJCU are having the issues they are- are there just less people going to college?
I guess there is some argument for some merger of the "lesser" NJ schools. NJCU has an important role but could it be part of the administration of Montclair or somewhere else? I know a lot schools would love that piece of real estate alone...
I do get why a school like Rider is suffering...the pricetag isn't justifiable. Hell, outside of Princeton, and perhaps Stevens with a scholarship, which NJ private schools are?
I don't get why Willy P and NJCU are having the issues they are- are there just less people going to college?
I guess there is some argument for some merger of the "lesser" NJ schools. NJCU has an important role but could it be part of the administration of Montclair or somewhere else? I know a lot schools would love that piece of real estate alone...
Montclair is already digesting the former Bloomfield College
I don't think you're right. Rutgers issues bonds to construct dorms. But these are revenue bonds that are paid off through room and board charges. I wouldn't worry about them unless there's a massive (and I mean massive) collapse in the number of kids living in the dorms. Rutgers does not issue bonds to construct classroom buildings. That's why it was so important a few years ago that New Jersey's voters approved a bond issue for construction. Those are state bonds, not Rutgers bonds -- servicing them is the state's problem, not Rutgers'. Rutgers does have a revenue problem, but it's an operating budget problem; the state legislature does not appropriate enough money each year to support Rutgers adequately. So the institution has to either cut back or raise tuition -- an unattractive choice.
I guess Kean would be an option for NJCU.
I wonder if St Peter's or Stevens could afford it. It's a nice piece of real estate.
Would the State be willing to transfer the property to a private non-profit? such as one of the colleges you name? I don't know but I wonder.
Rider might be in big trouble in a decade or even less. Would Rutgers absorb them as a satellite campus or maybe TCNJ would?
Yes, dorm bonds are generally paid off from the revenue stream of the room rentals.
Don't know the RU specifics but other NJ publics built non-dorm facilities during the NJ no capital investment in higher ed period. As I understand it those bonds need to be serviced from general revenue on the College's balance sheet.
This is in contrast to for example NY and SUNY where seems nearly everything built on their campuses is financed by the Dormitory Authority of New York State. That includes building a stadium for U. of Buffalo.
Here in NJ the bonds for the new improved RU stadium had to be floated by RU. A big chunk of the "Athletics Subsidy" certain people get agita about is because RU Athletics is servicing those each year.
Nathan Grawe has written some nice books on this college demographics. I read them because I was researching some investments in student housing.
Two problems:
1) Demographics - the financial crisis of 2008-2009 caused a baby bust that persists, meaning the number of Americans hitting college age is set to fall off a cliff.
2) Leadership - college administrators have closed their eyes to an obvious demographic cliff and have not adjusted to improve admissions and retention tactics.
Good news:
Rutgers in better shape than peer flagship state universities across New England and the Midwest where populations are growing slower and immigrants coming in are less likely to be college bound.
The situation is most acute at private colleges broadly (Bloomfield) and poorly run non-flagship public schools (New Jersey City University). In New Jersey, only Rutgers, Princeton, and Stevens will be unscathed by the college enrollment's declining trend.
Two problems:
1) Demographics - the financial crisis of 2008-2009 caused a baby bust that persists, meaning the number of Americans hitting college age is set to fall off a cliff.
2) Leadership - college administrators have closed their eyes to an obvious demographic cliff and have not adjusted to improve admissions and retention tactics.
Good news:
Rutgers in better shape than peer flagship state universities across New England and the Midwest where populations are growing slower and immigrants coming in are less likely to be college bound.
The situation is most acute at private colleges broadly (Bloomfield) and poorly run non-flagship public schools (New Jersey City University). In New Jersey, only Rutgers, Princeton, and Stevens will be unscathed by the college enrollment's declining trend.
State gives cash-strapped NJCU until March 2025 to find ‘fiscally sound’ partner
NJCU’s board of trustees “will immediately pursue and promptly complete” an assessment to identify a partnership with a fiscally sound New Jersey public institution “with which to merge/partner/affiliate.”
NJCU’s board of trustees “will immediately pursue and promptly complete” an assessment to identify a partnership with a fiscally sound New Jersey public institution “with which to merge/partner/affiliate.”
It's hard for me to imagine who NJCU could join up with. Is there a community college anywhere near? Few, if any, NJCU students have the credentials a four-year school would want -- the average SAT is 961.
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As I understand it, both Hudson Community College and NJCU are essentially open-admissions, so at least they have that common in addition to both being in Jersey City. But I wonder if Hudson Community College wants to become a four-year school. If not, something has to be done with juniors and seniors at NJCU so that they can maintain a path toward a bachelor's degree.
This is not a surprise for universities. They just refused to prepare. Rutgers, Rowan and TCNJ will be fine. Rutgers draw is national and global. They may have to revisit the cost structure and there may be some staff downsizing. NJ has strong community colleges. Some of the other state universities will struggle to survive. I imagine Princeton, NJIT, and Steven’s will survive too. Many NJ families are now sending students out of state, particularly southern state universities that are matching NJ in state tuition.
It's hard to imagine Princeton not surviving -- they have oodles of money.
As for downsizing staffing -- every institution has many more administrators than a generation ago for both good and bad reasons.
I would be interested in seeing data on how many NJ kids are going to state universities in the south. I've heard anecdotes (from Pa. as well as NJ parents), but it would be good to know actual numbers.
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Princeton will be fine too.
NJ kids heading out either have the means, qualify for considerable aide, are academically competitive and the out of state school offers in state tuition rates. Happening more than ever now. Rutgers has done a very good job building an international brand. Rowan has made big investments that are paying off. TCNJ just seems to do it right. The other NJ state schools will have tough decisions forthcoming. Especially since we have really quality community colleges throughout the state.
Rider, Monmouth and SHU should be nervous right now IMO. Agreed on Rutgers, Rowan, TCNJ being fine as will Princeton, NJIT, and Stevens since Princeton is Princeton and NJIT/Stevens rely on STEM which are job/career producing majors with high salaries.
I doubt Seton Hall has anything much to worry about. There will always be Catholic kids who will want to go( or will be pressured by their parents to go) to a Catholic college, and New Jersey has plenty of Catholics. (Only Rhode Island has a higher percentage of Catholics.)
Seton Hall probably will be fine. Their brand has remained the same. Staying small has worked for them and will protect them here too.
Agreed that Rutgers, Princeton, Stevens, Rowan, and NJIT are fine. SHU and Monmouth also appear to be fine.
NJCU can't have many options, but who knows. I'm still having trouble understanding why Montclair St. acquired Bloomfield. NJCU may need to look at a technical school like, Lincoln Tech, and also sell off some infrastructure Tech won't need.
My primary troubled watchlist would be: Centenary, Rider, Drew, Caldwell, Felician, and WPU. Next rung would be Saint Peter's, Saint Elizabeth, and Georgian Court, but they seem small enough and have reshaped things somewhat.
What about Monmouth? I feel like non-prestigious, non-Catholic privates are the most vulnerable. While they're aren't in as immediate danger as say a Rider or Drew is, I feel like they shouldn't sleep comfortably either.
I overspoke: Catholic colleges are far from invulnerable; consider Cabrini's decision to close and merge with Villanova near Philadelphia. A shake-out is happening that will result in fewer, but larger, Catholic schools. A school as established as Seton Hall though, should be fine. Some traditionally single-sex schools may be able to survive by going co-ed. There actually are some start-up Catholic colleges that are STEM. Maybe some existing schools can move in that direction. See the link:
https://www.insidehighered.com/news...ew-catholic-colleges-and-trade-schools-emerge
Monmouth may be in trouble. They have remained small. But their model has been of you can pay to come here, you’re in. And higher academic kids get scholarships. Eventually there will only be so many of those kids. I believe Monmouth is already experiencing the start of this issue.
Monmouth is an interesting one. Enrollment has declined from ~6,300 in Fall 2013 to ~5,000 in Fall 2023, which is concerning. Financials seemed stable based on this article that ranked it's financial health behind Princeton, but the data is a little stale (excerpt below). The school is in a good location.
New Jersey's private colleges: a financial assessment
NorthJersey.com analyzed data from four years worth of audited financial statements for each of the 14 traditional private colleges in New Jersey. An overall financial grade was calculated for each school, using a series of formulas jointly developed by KPMG and Prager, Sealy & Co, with Attain LLC participating on the most recent edition.The National Association of School Business Administrators has called it the gold standard for assessing a university’s financial health. The scores can range from -4 to 10, with 3 considered the minimum threshold for financial health. Schools are listed below according to their 2018-19 fiscal year scores.
| School | 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Princeton Univerity | 7.32 | 8.92 | 9.04 | 8.25 |
| Monmouth University | 6.62 | 6.1 | 6.62 | 5.72 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 4 | 3.99 | 6.13 | 4.94 |
| Stevens Institute of Technology | 2.58 | 4.65 | 5.14 | 4.25 |
| Seton Hall University | 3.18 | 4.11 | 3.23 | 2.55 |
| Georgian Court University | 3.72 | 3.56 | 2.79 | 2.49 |
| Saint Elizabeth University | 2.23 | 1.72 | 1.47 | 2.24 |
| Saint Peter's University | -1.38 | 2.60 | 2.28 | 2.22 |
| Felician University | 1.07 | 2.14 | 1.81 | 0.79 |
| Bloomfield College | 2.06 | 2.74 | 2.11 | 0.61 |
| Caldwell University | 0.47 | 1.3 | 1.38 | 0.47 |
| Drew University | 0.24 | -0.67 | -1.04 | 0.38 |
| Rider University | 0.37 | 1.45 | 2.01 | 0.27 |
| Centenary University | 0.2 | -0.38 | 0.46 | -1.1 |
As you suggest here, small is not necessarily beautiful. Even in higher education, there are economies of scale. The trick is to be small enough to be able to offer a small college experience, but not so small that tuition has to be outrageously high to pay the bills.
Anyone in the zeroes or negative numbers IMO are in serious danger based on this data. So Centenary, Rider, Drew, Caldwell, Bloomfield, and Felician. I do know Georgian Court is taking steps or has taken steps to downsize to alleviate their financial issues. Not sure what the others are doing.
Monmouth is for now in a better place than I thought since I feel like their only real selling point is attending college just blocks away from the Shore. They aren't what I'd call an academic bastion by any means.
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The issue with a place like Monmouth is the faculty union has no interest in considering enrollment drops. Every year there are less high school graduates who meet their targeting criteria. The university is left to raise tuition to pay the bills. It will get exponentially worse before it gets better there.
A faculty union has no control over enrollment size; that is determined by the administration. I have skimmed the Monmouth faculty agreement and I see nothing that alters that. https://www.monmouth.edu/famco/wp-content/uploads/sites/312/2023/09/1490.pdf
FWIW, Monmouth says it has little debt and has been praised by Inside Higher Education for its "disciplined" fiscal management and its "solid donor pipeline."
https://digital.monmouth.edu/presidents-report/presidents-report-2023/new-noteworthy/
I'd like to see updated data for the last 5 years.
That seems fine, but things will get dicey, if enrollment drops another 1,000-1,500.
You're right, but the advantage of having essentially open admissions (the 2022 admissions rate is 91%) is that it's not that hard to recruit students. There's always someone who can't get in elsewhere who wants to go to college on the Jersey Shore. Beside, it's close to two girls for every boy (to quote Jan & Dean) and guys will notice that. It might be that Monmouth will find it has to enhance its STEM offerings. I'm sure you agree that there are several New Jersey private colleges at greater risk.
Enrollment already dropped by ~20% over the past 10 years, so that hasn't helped them. They need to figure out how to stabilize enrollment or they could run into trouble if they lose another 20%. I'm not sure if their goal is to keep it around 5,000 or get it back to 6,000+ or even higher.
This is all great but they still have the issue of declining enrollment and less high school students every year to attract. Which I believe was the original point of discussion for the thread. With less and less students they just attract a new demographic and change their brand, increase donors and increase tuition.
We will disagree. The faculty union can assist with enrollment issues by agreeing to measures that will curtail tuition costs. As we have seen at other schools eventually the school is unable to pay the bills. This includes salary and benefits of staff.
What measures do you have in mind? The contract already allows the university to cut back wages in case of "financial exigency " and allows the Board of Trustees free rein in deciding whether there is an exigency The faculty is already promising to teach an 18-credit load -- much higher than at Rutgers.
Remember that William Paterson is public,so it has a different set of issues from the other schools on your troubled watchlist.
Yes. They're in the same bucket as NJCU and Bloomfield. Not sure their financials are as bad as of now.
