Ash Five Year Mininum Win/Loss Expectations?

[mildone]

After reading some of the expectations people have posted for our upcoming season, I'm curious what kind of minimum expectations everybody has for Ash and crew. I'm sure we all want him to run a clean program free of the kind of extracurricular issues that we had with Flood. So this isn't about that.

This is more about specifically what kind of minimum win/loss expectations do you have for the next five seasons. The idea being, if he fails to meet that expectation, you would start souring on him or calling for him to be fired. How patient are you?

Here are mine:

2016: 2 wins minimum
2017: 5 wins minimum
2018 through 2020: a bowl game minimum each season, but at least one 8 win season out of the three.

I realize that those are going to seem like low expectations. But (a) we're in an incredibly tough division in a very tough conference, (b) we have nine conference games now and will soon be unable to schedule Howard for easy wins in non-conference games, (c) I think it's going to take at least five solid years of ever-improving recruiting to build the program up to the point where we can be regularly expected to have a potentially conference-title capable football team each year.

I obviously want to win a national championship in 2016. I just don't expect it to happen that quickly.

 

[Yeah Baby]

Well there is a pretty big difference between 2 wins and a National Championship.

I am never a "fire the coach" type of guy but I want to win and win now. So I am saying 35-40 wins over 5 years and at least one year of 9 wins or more.

 

[oldman87]

I'm not greedy so 8-9 wins this year seems reasonable.

 

[Knight Shift]

60 or bust and two NC's.

 

[mildone]

I'm not greedy so 8-9 wins this year seems reasonable.

lol

 

[superfan01]

59-1

 

[DJ Spanky]

59-1

That's only 4 years.

 

[mildone]

It seems my chickens are coming home to roost. [laughing]

 

[DJ Spanky]

It seems my chickens are coming home to roost. [laughing]

Good to see you don't discriminate against any livestock.

 

[Knight Shift]

Good to see you don't discriminate against any livestock.

The chickens come home to roost. The sheep come home for other reasons?

 

[Upstream]

2016: 2 wins minimum

Seriously, 2 wins this year? The last time Rutgers only won 2 or fewer games was 14 years ago when we had the Buffanova disaster.

I think that is setting the bar incredibly low.

For all Flood's faults, it is not like we are coming off a Shea-like program. If Ash only wins 2 games (assuming Howard + one other), he is going to have a hard time gaining traction in recruiting. Last year Flood managed 4 wins with a ton of off-the-field distractions, and in theory Ash is a much better coach who instills greater discipline in the program. There are challenges that will make it difficult for Ash to significantly improve on last year's results, but that doesn't mean we should see a significant slide either.

 

[koleszar]

The better question is, 5 yr. minimum expectation of how many hookers and blow does Mildone do and consume in a 5 yr. period.
I'll go with 25 hookers and 6lbs of blow.:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

 

[mildone]

Seriously, 2 wins this year? The last time Rutgers only won 2 or fewer games was 14 years ago when we had the Buffanova disaster.

I think that is setting the bar incredibly low.

For all Flood's faults, it is not like we are coming off a Shea-like program. If Ash only wins 2 games (assuming Howard + one other), he is going to have a hard time gaining traction in recruiting. Last year Flood managed 4 wins with a ton of off-the-field distractions, and in theory Ash is a much better coach who instills greater discipline in the program. There are challenges that will make it difficult for Ash to significantly improve on last year's results, but that doesn't mean we should see a significant slide either.

I hope we win 6 games. I think we win at least 3-4 games. But while I wouldn't be happy about only getting 2 wins, I wouldn't lose patience with Ash just yet either. He has a free year with me to install his systems, to gel with his young and relatively inexperienced (in their current roles) coaching staff.

 

[mdk01]

Minimum expectations:

2016 - 4
2017 - 5
2018 - 7
2019 - 8
2020 - 9 (entire roster Ash recruits)

33

 

[Upstream]

I hope we win 6 games. I think we win at least 3-4 games. But while I wouldn't be happy about only getting 2 wins, I wouldn't lose patience with Ash just yet either. He has a free year with me to install his systems, to gel with his young and relatively inexperienced (in their current roles) coaching staff.

Well in that case, why not just make the minimum zero wins, and say that this is a free year for Ash and that you'll continue to support him regardless of his actual W-L record.

 

[mildone]

The chickens come home to roost. The sheep come home for other reasons?

I live in the Hotel California insofar as sheep are concerned. [laughing]

 

[mildone]

Well in that case, why not just make the minimum zero wins, and say that this is a free year for Ash and that you'll continue to support him regardless of his actual W-L record.

Because given his assistants, I could probably coach the team to a win over Howard. The second game is him showing he actually can out-coach another coach at least once this season, despite us possibly having a weaker team.

 

[mildone]

Minimum expectations:

2016 - 4
2017 - 5
2018 - 7
2019 - 8
2020 - 9 (entire roster Ash recruits)

33

Seems reasonable to me. Although in our current conference, there will be years when everybody we play but one or two non-conference games, is going to range from pretty good to great.

 

[ScarletCrimson]

Seriously? 2 wins? Wow, even Flood would have done more than that.

 

[Knight Shift]

2017 is a relatively "easy schedule compared to years prior. We have Morgan State, Eastern Michigan, and Purdue at home, and Illinois on the road. That's the current bottom of the B1G West and a couple of what should be cupcakes at home.

 

[17Q66]

10 wins by 2020. Gary won 11 games five years in, and we were in much worse shape when he got here.

10 wins, and we'll have beaten Ohio State at least once, Penn State 3 times. Should be easy to beat up on Franklin's replacement after next year.

 

[czxqa]

That's only 4 years.

12 scheduled games a year times 5 years. That's 60.

 

[RUforester72]

Just to go 1-0 next week.....

 

[ScarletRunner]

Coaching aside, the 2017 team will likely be worse than this year's squad. The remaining 5th-year seniors from the very strong 2012 class will be gone, and Ash's 2017 recruiting class - while shaping up to be very good - will only be freshmen and unlikely to offer much help.

Look at our recruiting classes from 2013 - 2016... The 2017 squad will likely be our least-talented going back to the early Schiano years.

 

[theRU]

Over/under 36.5 wins after 5 years

 

[MikeR0102]

First 5 years? 32 wins minimum.

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

Min: 40
Max: 50

 

[REDRICH65]

28 wins next 5years. A good reason for season tix?1

 

[JQRU91]

I don't think it's a good idea to set minimum win expectations that far out. You don't know if the teams we play will be getting better or worse, or who will transfer, or who will get injured, or if a major event (injury/death/arrest) will sour an entire season. Overall, I just want to see that Ash has the program set to move forward. Things may go smoothly or there may be a lot of bumps, but as long as the program seems to have some sort of forward trajectory that I can see, I'll probably be good with Ash.

 

[DJ Spanky]

12 scheduled games a year times 5 years. That's 60.

if you go 12-0, you get a 13th game, the conference championship. If you go 13-0, you're in the semi-finals of the national championship. 14-0, the finals. Win that, you're 15-0.

 

[Crimedog2]

Coaching aside, the 2017 team will likely be worse than this year's squad. The remaining 5th-year seniors from the very strong 2012 class will be gone, and Ash's 2017 recruiting class - while shaping up to be very good - will only be freshmen and unlikely to offer much help.

Look at our recruiting classes from 2013 - 2016... The 2017 squad will likely be our least-talented going back to the early Schiano years.

This . Hoping for 5-6 wins this year . Although tough , it's possible . 2017 will be a rough one .
I hope by 2018 we are ready to compete and 2019 ready to roll .

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

I am 62 . My 5 year plans are now 5 months.

 

[RUich]

There are certainly enough decent/good players on this roster to assume we win more than just two games this season. The trajectory of the program has to be quicker though once Ash's recruits become involved. The BIG has three to four top programs that will most likely dominate us for the next three to four years at least, it is the rest of the league that we should be able to really compete with.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

This is what I see

2016.....6-6
2017.....3-9/4-8 (worried that worse is possible)
2018.....6-6/7-5 (schedule is much more manageable this year..so schedule 1-2 game more positive that usual with normal schedule with Ash's talent being so young)
2019.....6-6/7-5 (talent being recruiting in Ash's first two years hitting maturation in third and second years)

year five is critical (2020)...Ash first two classes are in 4th and 3rd years and this is his team...need to show 8-4 improvement

 

[rufanpops]

The better question is, 5 yr. minimum expectation of how many hookers and blow does Mildone do and consume in a 5 yr. period.
I'll go with 25 hookers and 6lbs of blow.:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

5 years? That's a good spring break for some of us.

 

[RU2055]

Coaching aside, the 2017 team will likely be worse than this year's squad. The remaining 5th-year seniors from the very strong 2012 class will be gone, and Ash's 2017 recruiting class - while shaping up to be very good - will only be freshmen and unlikely to offer much help.

Look at our recruiting classes from 2013 - 2016... The 2017 squad will likely be our least-talented going back to the early Schiano years.

This is why I won't be surprised if we bring in more graduate transfers. JUCOs if possible, but they've always been difficult because of our unreasonable requirements.

 

[RU2055]

This is what I see

2016.....6-6
2017.....3-9/4-8 (worried that worse is possible)
2018.....6-6/7-5 (schedule is much more manageable this year..so schedule 1-2 game more positive that usual with normal schedule with Ash's talent being so young)
2019.....6-6/7-5 (talent being recruiting in Ash's first two years hitting maturation in third and second years)

year five is critical (2020)...Ash first two classes are in 4th and 3rd years and this is his team...need to show 8-4 improvement

While I agree that we lose a lot of talent in 2017, I don't agree that we win 3-4 games. For one thing the schedule is easier. Plus this is discounting that the loss of players means others being given the opportunity (who might actually be better). By the second year, just about everyone in the program would be conditioned in the Ash way of doing things. Don't discount that. A more mature Ash culture in year two makes a world of difference. Also, if Odin shows he is the real deal in 2016, he will be a beast in 2017.

 

[mildone]

I tend to think that while we lose a bunch of players in 2017, that will be offset some by considerably better S&C and position coaching. Plus the team will have had a full season of games to work out kinks in the new offensive approach and we will have a red-shirt freshman dual-threat QB with a year of toughening up and learning the offense available.

And Ash and crew will have had a full season to have made and worked through some inevitable early career mistakes. The team will be younger in biological age, but about the same in football age due to much better coaching.

At least that's my logic for why I think we do better in 2017 than in 2016.

 

[ShiningKnight]

I think that minimum wins is the wrong focus for evaluating Coach Ash. The criteria for me are the following: 1 Does the team pass the eye test (plays hard, aggressive well coached defense, exciting well coached offense)? 2 Do the players develop in strength and speed through the Conditioning program? 3 Does recruiting continue at the 2017 (to date) rate going forward? 4 Does Coach Ash show that he is a good game day Coach? If those occur I'm certain that wins will happen. So no specific minimum for me.

 

[mildone]

I think that minimum wins is the wrong focus for evaluating Coach Ash. The criteria for me are the following: 1 Does the team pass the eye test (plays hard, aggressive well coached defense, exciting well coached offense)? 2 Do the players develop in strength and speed through the Conditioning program? 3 Does recruiting continue at the 2017 (to date) rate going forward? 4 Does Coach Ash show that he is a good game day Coach? If those occur I'm certain that wins will happen. So no specific minimum for me.

I agree that the concept of using "minimum wins" is contrived and too black and white. But it's hard to find a criteria that's concisely expressible that isn't contrived and I figured people could always qualify their responses with narrative that conveys more nuance (as some have done).

Plus it was a rare on-topic thread. :)