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Avoiding early season upset

knight82

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Nov 4, 2002
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Have to make sure we dont have another Lafayette this year, or even the major scare from Lehigh. To me, it seems simple. The likes of Columbia, Sacred Heart, etc cant possibly have anyone who can guard Cliff, can they? As we saw Cliff dominate in the first few minutes of the exhibition against Fairfield, thats what needs to be done. Pike went away from that against Fairfield because it was an exhibition game and he wanted to work on other things. But in games that count, just keep feeding the big fella until they prove they can stop him. I know it's simplistic, but doesnt it make sense?
 
The combination of opponent shooting hot and you being cold could mean as much as 25 to 30 point swing. Very few matchups in all of college basketball would have a team being able to over come this. I am talking about raw shooting, I am talking deviation from norms keeping quality of shots constant.

If we are anywhere from 12 to 18 points better than our 1st 3 opponents and we play bad, and they shoot it good and we shoot it bad the game is close and a loss is possible.

Feeding Cliff in the post does take one part of the variability out of the equation. However Cliff and all players have a limit from a stamina prospective.
 
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Cliff is sooooo much better offensively now than he was to start last season. We feed Cliff early and often. Mag also will be a very tough cover going to the basket. These teams also likely have smaller guards where Paul has a distinct matchup
 
After what happened last year, I don’t want to get ahead of myself with any optimism. The Lafayette upset happened because our choices at that time on that given day down the stretch were to:

A) play 2 horrendous back court defenders together in the perimeter (Jones and Hyatt) with Paul.

Or

B) play Caleb instead of one of them who was suffering through his case of the Yips. He wasn’t just missing outside shots at that point. He bizarrely couldn’t even put uncontested lay ups in the basket for a series of 3-4 games.

The problem with option 2 was that the backcourt defense still had holes with Paul and one of those guys (Jones/Hyatt) guarding the perimeter. Combine that with us not being able to buy a basket and that made us susceptible to the upset. Since we weren’t scoring anyway, Miller would’ve made a difference in that game and that’s likely why Pike agreed to burn his red shirt shortly thereafter.
 
Acceptable record for those 11 out of conference games? 9-2? 8-3? Also, have we ever played 2 B1G games in the 1st 8 days of December before? Pretty tough to jump right into B1G play that early.
 
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The lower level teams on the Rutgers schedule always seem to have some 3 point shooters which can cause upsets or make the final results closer than expected.Rutgers slow starts offensively must be minimized against weaker competition.
 
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You remember in 2018 when we came out and beat Fairleigh Dickinson by 35 and Drexel by 29 in the first two games? That was a sign, to me, especially coming off the MSG run the spring before. That team ended up losing to Fordham and getting taken to OT by Columbia but the fact they showed that ability to blow out bad -- but not sub-300 -- teams showed me something.

I want to see a lot more of that this season.
 
The lower level teams on the Rutgers schedule always seem to have some 3 point shooters which can cause upsets or make the final results closer than expected.Rutgers slow starts offensively must be minimized against weaker competition.
Our problem against these teams has been defending the 3 point line and we didn't do that very well against Fairfield and thats one thing I don't understand about this coaching staff we give so many open 3's because our guys tend to hedge toward the lane so much if they just stay on their men and not give up the 3's we will be fine especially against Columbia there is really no reason to hedge off your man
 
Our problem against these teams has been defending the 3 point line and we didn't do that very well against Fairfield and thats one thing I don't understand about this coaching staff we give so many open 3's because our guys tend to hedge toward the lane so much if they just stay on their men and not give up the 3's we will be fine especially against Columbia there is really no reason to hedge off your man
Especially depending on who you are guarding. If you're man is a legit 3 point threat you have to know that and help less. Sometimes we are helping and hedging off our man when the defender is in good position
 
Why not look to go 11-0?
One of the differences this year than last year is if someone is cold, we now have a deeper bench to go to without significant dropoff. Also, Cliff has really picked up his game. Can shoot close in with either hand and has a nice touch from 2 or 3 zone. Not many teams are going to be able to stop him.
 
Why not look to go 11-0?
One of the differences this year than last year is if someone is cold, we now have a deeper bench to go to without significant dropoff. Also, Cliff has really picked up his game. Can shoot close in with either hand and has a nice touch from 2 or 3 zone. Not many teams are going to be able to stop him.
11-0 is possible for sure. There are only a couple tough games. Win those and don't drop any games we are expected to win.

Undefeated 7-0 heading into Indiana and the RAC is going to be insaneeee if we start strong in OOC
 
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11-0 is possible for sure. There are only a couple tough games. Win those and don't drop any games we are expected to win.

Undefeated 7-0 heading into Indiana and the RAC is going to be insaneeee if we start strong in OOC
Only OOC games that should give us any agita are Temple (neutral), Miami (road), SHU (home), and Wake (home). I will be very disappointed if we're not 3-1 in those games.
 
One thing last year should have taught us, don't panic if there's an early WTF loss. As a season ticket holder for more than 30 years, it's hard sometimes to really accept how far we've come. We are a solid program continuing to make progress. Enjoy the ride. Go Ru!
 
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Why not look to go 11-0?
One of the differences this year than last year is if someone is cold, we now have a deeper bench to go to without significant dropoff. Also, Cliff has really picked up his game. Can shoot close in with either hand and has a nice touch from 2 or 3 zone. Not many teams are going to be able to stop him.
Cliff has to stay out of early foul trouble which happened too often last season.
 
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Cliff reached four fouls 4x last season. Three of those were in our first six games: Merrimack (32 minutes played, one foul in 1st half), at DePaul (19 minutes (one foul at 15 minute mark, one at 8:33 mark, sat out rest of the half), and at UMass (27 minutes, only one first half foul). The fourth was Michigan, where he played 35 minutes (one first half foul).

Without checking every game play by play, he was only in early foul trouble in one game where he finished with four fouls.

Lehigh game, he fouled twice and sat out after the 7:52 mark of the 1st half as a result. That was early foul trouble.

In the Purdue game, he got a foul around the 13 minute mark and his 2nd at the 3:55 mark, then sat the rest of the half. Not too early.

Nebraska game. He picked up his 2nd at the 14:30 mark and sat the rest of the half.

Maryland game, 2nd foul with around 2 minutes to go in the 1st half.

Iowa rock fight game, he got his 2nd with over 6 minutes to go and sat out the rest of the half.

Penn State game was the worst by far, with two fouls 61 seconds into the game. Then he sat out the rest of the half.

Overall, not bad at all after those first few games, with the exception of Nebraska and PSU.
 
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Staten Island NY native Columbia coach Jim Engles has some familiarity with huge upsets. One of his NJIT teams won at Michigan.
 
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Rebounding, rebounding and rebounding.
Pike didn’t like our numbers from last year and it’s wasn’t good in the Fairfield game. We didn’t dominate on the boards and clearly we are the more physical team. To avoid wtf loss, also contest 3 ball. These teams(this is like their super bowl) usually bombs away and we saw this with Fairfield and misses take crazy bounces and ultimately create easy three looks after offensive rebounds. We have the ability to rebound, run while attacking the rim. Just win the paint battle!!
 
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Yes, hopefully no early letdowns at home that could cost us dearly if we once again find ourselves on the bubble in February/March. That Temple game worries me (very weird that it's at Mohegan Sun) but should hopefully be a win. To me, being undefeated going into the Miami road game is the goal.
 
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