Okay let's get this thing started. Night owls come on in, grab your beverage of choice and some tacos and dive into bacatology. Early birds, see you in the morning. Comments and questions are always welcome. Corrections are always helpful especially spelling. Tips are mandatory!
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 13 at large locks leaving 23 available spots in the field. I am projecting 38 schools competing for those 23 open spots. Everyone up the 5 seed line is locked in right now.
rutgers.rivals.com
ONE SEEDS
TWO SEEDS
THREE SEEDS
FOUR SEEDS
FIVE SEEDS
SIX SEEDS
(13) CREIGHTON 17-8: Bluejays got a big win over Connecticut that really legitimatized a profile that has rapidly recovered from an ugly 6 game skid earlier in the year. Now winners of 8 in a row, Creighton has pulled to within a half game of first in the Big East with a very doable schedule down the stretch. Q1 mark now up to 4-5 in Q1 and 8-7 in Q2. Other big wins include Arkansas, Xavier and Providence. The NET soaring to 13 plus the SOS of 24/30 are signs that their seeding possibilities are expanding upward. 3 of next 4 are on the road to Providence, St Johns, Nova and sandwiched in between is Marquette so this stretch is going to determine how far they can rise or if they hang around the 6-7 line.
(44) NORTHWESTERN 18-7: Wildcats annexed their biggest win in program history by knocking off #1 Purdue and have soared up the seed list. Think bracketologists have been sleeping on them all year. The resume was strong before the Purdue win. Their work on the road has been impressive with wins at Indiana, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. Throw in a home win over Illinois, another over Wisconsin and a sneaky good neutral site with over ASun AQ Liberty and that gives them 7 wins vs teams projected in the field at this moment. Overall NET lags at 44 but that hideous 29 point loss at home to Pitt has a lot to do with it. The non conference sos at 243 isnt too hot and 8 of their wins do come from Quad 4 but that won't matter. Cats have a brutal schedule down the stretch with 3 rough road trips to Ill/MD/RU so getting a win at home vs Ind/Iowa in this upcoming stretch could give them some breathing space and take some pressure off.
(45) MISSOURI 19-6: Notched their biggest win of the season by winning at Tennessee. 4 Q1 wins also include a conference win over Arkansas but they really sparkled OOC by notching wins over Illinois and Iowa State. 8-6 overall in Q1/2 includes a win too over bubble Kentucky. No loss outside Q1, their worst loss is a home loss to Florida. They are close to locking in but there is a testy three game stretch ahead at Auburn, Miss St, and Texas A&M that they need to navigate with at least a win to be sure and avoid ugly losses against the SEC bottom feeders to close the season.
(22) ILLINOIS 17-7: Illini's profile was riding mostly off of 2 feather in their cap wins over Texas and UCLA but the win over Rutgers was a big one to push them up the seed line as it was just their 3 Q1 win. Overall in the top 2 Quads, they are now 7-6 win shows a win over Michigan State and they did sweep fading Wisconsin. Still a clean profile with no bad losses and SOS marks at 37/89 are solid enough. Tough schedule to close starting with a dangerous trip to Penn State who already beat them this year followed by a trip to Indiana. Games vs Northwestern and at Purdue also loom so Illinois is no guarantee to stay on this seed line. Playing at a high level though should feel pretty safe anyhow.
SEVEN SEEDS
(39) IOWA 16-9: Hawkeyes are really starting to stack quality wins as they now have amassed a whopping 7 Q1 wins and 10 total in Q1/2. 8 wins vs teams projected in the field if you include Clemson: Rutgers 2x, Iowa State, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern plus wins over wrong side of the bubble Michigan. SOS is a strong 23 and just that one blemish a stunning home loss to Eastern Illinois that is going to be completely overlooked. Hawkeyes have a more than manageable 6 game stretch to close the Big 10 season at home at least but the 3 road games will provide a challenge where they have not been as sharp. Could wind up as high as a 5 seed or low as a 10 depending on what happens but we will stop short here of locking them in just yet.
(21) RUTGERS 16-9: Absolutely nothing wrong with losing two Big 10 road games vs schools projected on the 4 and 6 seed line in the big picture. RU is still a fine 4-6 in Q1 and 8-8 in Q1/2. However the Mag injury looms large as defense has dropped a couple notches and the Knights do not seem to have the depth to give them much offense. The schedule going forward is a double edged sword. On the one hand its very favorable...only 2 games vs schools projected in the field and 2 games vs 2 of the weaker schools in the Big 10. 3 road games but again to 3 schools in the bottom 5 of the league. What it means is that there really isnt much opportunity to beef up the resume for seeding. Makes that season finale Northwestern game a real important one. Still if the Knights can take care of business and win half of these they are a lock to dance, if they get only 2 then their metric will start to slide rapidly and you will seem them drop near that 11 line making a Big 10 tourney win an imperative. The SOS is currently at 31 overall but that will slide a bit in the next 6. The OOC of 306 is butt ugly and almost the worst on this list. No way around it and we hope RU does not fall toward the bubble because that mark plus the lack of any OOC win of note will loom large. RU was without a couple key players for losses to Miami and Temple but any injury factor now will be balanced out by the loss of Mag for the year so do not look at the injury thing as being any kind of factor for RU plus or minus. The win at Purdue is still the best win in the country so Rutgers will keep milking that forever. The win at Northwestern looking better and better. Maryland and Michigan State are surging so those wins are looking better as well. Yeah the road mark at just 2-6 and 2-7 neutral is terrible to look at, its worse than almost any school in this analysis. Though because those wins are Purdue and Northwestern, the road mark isnt going to be a factor unless RU loses at Minnesota. Getting back to a 5 seed level will be an enormous task. Knights are tracking anywhere from 6-10 seed but again with a poor finish can land right in that last 4 in grouping. Yet it is hard to fathom some of the most schools projected out of the field surpassing RU, yet it only takes one. Remember things do not occur in a vacuum so how the schools on the 6-8 lines do down the stretch will also have major impacts. The surges by Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern are greatly impacting Rutgers seeding.
(31) DUKE 17-8: No one is crying over the screw job done on the Blue Devils on a foul call waived off at the end of regulation that prevented a victory over Virginia that would have locked Duke in the field. Still the Blue Devils look to be relative safe with a very solid resume. Perhaps not as strong as we are used to seeing from them but as they are just 2-7 in Q1 although 7-8 in Q1/2. Wins over Xavier and Iowa on neutral courts give lift to the non conference stuff. In league the Devils have notched wins over AQ Pitt, Miami and UNC. No bad losses here though 8 of their wins are coming from Q4. ACC way down once again so a bunch of landmines coming up in the stretch with two tilts with NC State/UNC at end of the year as the only real shots at picking up anymore quality wins. Looking fairly safe.
(19) SAN DIEGO STATE* 19-5: Aztec are the projected AQ from Mountain West. With only a half game lead up on Nevada and still with road trips to New Mexico and Boise coming up, the spot as AQ may be tenuous. With Ohio State tailspin, they lack anything OOC and have largely compiled their quality wins in league over the likes of Boise, Nevada and a sweep of Utah State. With Boise on the edge, that makes just one win over teams currently in the field. The metrics love them and 3-4 in Q1 and 8-5 in Q1/2 look strong plus the 10-0 mark in Q3 really emphasizes the schedule strength here at 43/32 with just one Q4 game on the schedule. Certainly have some strengths here and we think they could sustain those 2 losses on the road but any slip ups at Fresno or to one of Colorado State/Wyoming at home, They have not absorbed a bad loss yet so it would be a stretch to think they shouldn't be anything but confident about their chances of dancing.
EIGHT SEEDS
(36) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20-6: Wolfpack flaunting a gaudy win total yet their lack of flesh on the resume is holding them back in the pecking order. Just 2-4 in Q1 games and those are to schools not projected in the field...4-2 in Q2 shows their biggest wins of Miami and Duke. Yes there is a sneaky good win over Furman but garnering just two wins vs the field raises questions. 10 of their 20 wins are in Q4 including 4 from the ACC alone! That non conference sos of 243 is not good but again no bad losses. Well here comes their gauntlet. First up a landmine at Syracuse, then 3 straight home games vs UNC, Wake and Clemson before the season finale at Duke. Those 3 home tilts are all against bubble schools so each one takes on great importance. Pack would lock things up by handling Cuse and winning 2 of those at home. Certainly a potential to improve their seeding or watch it fall into a freefall.
(32) MICHIGAN STATE 16-9: Spartan starting to climb in the metrics albeit that 6-7 mark vs Q1 may not be quite as good as it seems. In their toughest games they have gone 0-7 but have picked up very good wins over Rutgers and Maryland. Oregon and Kentucky are borderline in/out right now, while OSU/PSU are clearly out. There are Q2 wins over Iowa and Wisconsin. The Q3 loss to Notre Dame will prove irrelevant. Metrics alone not going to find better numbers of 9-8 in Q1/2 down on the 8/9 line., The SOS of 3 is raging! For them its all about taking care of business. Two very winnable home games vs bottom feeders and another road game at a weak Nebby. Games at Michigan and home vs Indiana/Iowa will be tough but its hard to imagine them not being able to snare a couple of these. Could rise significantly in the seeding with a strong finish.
(28) MARYLAND 17-8: Terps have quietly crept up on everyone not only in the Big 10 but on the national scene as well. They simply keep winning the games they should, especially at home where they are 13-1 and have avoided sustaining any bad losses all season long. Overall the resume does not wow....3-7 vs Q1, Q1/2 6-8 could be better yet the Illinois/Indiana wins with the neutral site win over Miami and three wins that look better and better as we go through the season. There is a win over projected for now Wisconsin that resides in Q3 for now. Ceiling wise things may be capped as their last 6 are not exactly murderers row. Its more landmines that quality win opportunities. Purdue/Northwestern are their two biggies left both at home. It would be great to snag one of those to lock them in but probably just not absorbing bad losses keeps them on the good side of the bubble.
(18) FLORIDA ATLANTIC* 22-2: Currently the CUSA AQ, the Owls continue to ride insane metrics. Whether those metrics are inflated cannot be answered but what is true is at 22-2 with no loss outside Q2, FAU looks like they may be able to sustain another loss and still get an at large bid. That means navigate the last 5 vs mediocre competition and it will not matter what transpires in the CUSA tourney. 2-1 vs Q1/5-2 vs Q1/2..... Q1 loss to UAB and Q2 at Ole Miss. There is a win over Florida here that looks very good for a midmajor. Also sweep of decent CUSA foe North Texas and did enact revenge over UAB. 17 wins are from Q3/4 but its a better sign that 10 of them are from Q3. 15-2 vs Q1/2/3 is excellent for a midmajor.
NINE SEEDS
(51) PITTSBURGH* 18-7: Believe it or not, the Panthers are currently the AQ from the ACC. A sort of Jekyll and Hyde profile with several quality wins and a profile hamstrung by two ugly losses that are crashing their metrics. First the good. The 4-2 Q1, 8-5 Q1/2 mark. A stunning 7-2 road mark. Wins at NC State, UNC, Northwestern. Home wins vs Virginia, Duke, Miami. The Panthers are legit in the ACC. Northwestern's surge is buoying Pitt's profile. What is dragging their NET down to 51 was the 25 point loss at home to WVU and a 31 point neutral site loss to bubble Michigan. Add in a Q4 home loss to Florida State and you get this mixed bag. Still the NCAA committee values who you beat and the Panthers have done more than enough winning. The stretch is all about avoiding those nasty booby traps in the ACC. Just a trip to Miami vs a NCAA projected team, Pitt has to handle the likes of Cuse, BC, at ND to remain in a nice spot.
(43) PROVIDENCE 18-7: Not sure what the AP top 25 voters are thinking but the Friars do not have a lot of meat on the profile. Sure the home wins over UConn and Marquette are impressive but that is it folks. Winning on the road at Seton Hall and Nova do not exactly carry cache this season. There is a Q3 loss to St Louis and more startling is 9 of their 18 wins are in Q4. Their weekend loss at St John's might actually be worse than the St Louis loss and now raises questions. Did absolutely nothing OOC with their best road win being 230 URI on the road and that is reflected in that shaky 274 non conference mark. Friars absolutely need more and that starts with a game vs Creighton on Tuesday. Further along is a home game vs Xavier and a trip to UConn. Going to have to find one win there at least and then win the games they should vs Nova/SHU at home.
(29) OKLAHOMA STATE 16-9: Cowboys are getting there slowly but surely. Left for dead at 9-8, the Pokes have now won 7 of 8, sweeping ISU, knocking off TCU and taking care of business vs the two weaker schools OU/TT in the Big 12. Overall Net has soared in the top 30. Q1 is 4-6, Q1/2 up to 7-8. There is an earlier win over WVU. Not much OOC as there is a Q3 loss to So Illinois while also losing to the likes of Va Tech and UCF and their best win there is just Sam Houston. OSU going to have to keep things going though and will face an acid test in their next 5....KU, at TCU, at WVU, KSU, Bay before finishing up traveling to TTech. Would be good to get that one signature win in this stretch. Going to need 2 wins here or else they fall into that situation that has torpedoed many bloated Big 12 schools in previous seasons.
(25) WEST VIRGINIA 15-10: Mountaineers are clear a cut below the top 6 in the Big 12 as reflected in their 4-8 conference mark. Solid overall metrics yet with the Big 12 is such a double edged sword. Q1 win opportunities galore yet annexing them can be difficult. Would not want to see WVU annex too many losses in their final 6. Brutal road games at Baylor, KU, ISU and more manageable home games vs Tex Tech, OSU, KSU. Want to get 3 of these because heading into the Big 10 tourney at 17-14 and the possibility of a loss puts them at 17-15 and in a spot where history has shown Big 12 teams will not get picked and while they have good wins, they lack any signature win. 4-9 vs Q1, 7-10 vs Q2. The wins of note are Iowa State, TCU and the two OOC Pitt and Auburn. Those two are good to have given the proximity to those schools here in the pecking order. No bad losses and the SOS of 4 are big positives going forward but again its mainly going to come down to that whether the committee can stomach a bloated record.
TEN SEEDS
(35) AUBURN 17-8: Once 16-3, the Tigers have dropped 5 of 6 and lost to every school with a pulse over the last month. Yes it is officially panic time. The reality is that even before the recent skid, their profile was more win total than quality wins. Certainly that narrow neutral site win over Northwestern is taking on great importance. The wins over Arky and Miss State are other two solid wins but yet they ride at the lower end of the this bubble in pecking order. 2-6 vs Q1 but a better 7-8 Q1/2. Still a clean profile but that loss at Georgia is teetering on Quad 3. Resume is screaming out for a signature win. Will not get another chance til a trip to Bama and home tilt with Tennessee in the season finale, but this weeks game at home vs Missouri is a game they really need or else the Tigers are headed for an extended stay in the last 8 in grouping. Dangerous trips to Vandy and Kentucky later might bounce them out of the field entirely.
(23) ARKANSAS 17-8: The metrics belie the lack of substance on the resume. The loss at home to fellow bubble Mississippi State was one step backward for the Hogs who took a step forward with a win at Kentucky a few days earlier. Q1 numbers at 2-5 show that win over Kentucky and a ooc win over San Diego State. To add to that in Q2 are wins over Missouri and last 4 in/out Texas A&M>. Q1/2 6-7 is okay but not great. There is a Q3 loss here to LSU so they do not want to add to this. Arky needs some quality wins....4 shots at it but included are road trips at Bama/Tenn. More achievable is at Texas A&M this Wednesday and Kentucky to close the season. Grab those two and they will be in pretty good shape. Otherwise they float toward the mendoza line.
(30) NEVADA 19-6: Wolfpack eking out that road win at New Mexico last week vaulted them back into the field. They really needed a quality road win and it gave them a sweep over the Lobos plus adding another quality win to the wins over Boise and San Diego State. 3-4 vs Q1 and 7-6 Q1/2 are pretty strong numbers from a school from this conference who by the way is rated ahead of the Pac 12 and ACC. While they lack a signature non conference wins the sos stuff at 54/119 are solid. No losses outside Q2 seem to rate them above the other 2 serious MVC bubbles but things can change quickly. Pack have a dangerous game coming up at longshot bubble Utah State. Its their last Q1 chance. as they get bunch of mediocrity to close the season. Take care of business.
(41) MISSISSIPPI STATE 17-8: Let's just say the gap from the 3 schools ahead of MSU to the Tigers on the 10 line is pretty enormous. Its more like last 7 in grouping than last 8. This grouping of 7 in all the way through first 4 are out is incredibly tight. 11 schools vying for 7 spots with others possibly waiting in the wings. Tigers vaulting into the field with just a road win at Arkansas shows how cramped things are around the bubble. Mississippi State has now won 5 in row and 3 of those are against projected tourney teams. They have erased their woeful 1-7 SEC mark and literally built their resume overnight. 3-5 vs Q1 and 2-3 vs Q2 for 5-8 admittedly is not all that great. Its the deeper dive showing 4 wins vs tourney teams..Marquette, TCU, Missouri, Arkansas that is impressive and matches up well compared to the other 10 teams they are fighting with. While there are no losses outside Q2, Tigers are in too tenuous a position right now to accrue more than maybe one bad loss. Games vs Kentucky and Texas A&M are bubble type play in games each night for all participants. Some things also working against them are that 9 wins came in Quad 4,, its alot and that non conference sos of 230 shows that.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(40) NORTH CAROLINA 16-9: Heels did not fare well in their first 3 gauntlet games but did manage to score a win over former ACC AQ Clemson and while those Tigers are just barely hanging onto their bid that win was enough to push the Heels in for now. The whys of why the Heels are on the right side of the bubble over others with no Q1 wins largely stems from the idea that they have not done anything wrong. Their worst loss is Pitt, 8 of their 9 losses are in Q1. The SOS is 33/17 which is potent combo to have on the bubble. One year later, Heels find themselves almost in the exact same spot. Last year 18-7, this year 16-9 Last year NET 37, this year NET 40, Last year 0-7 in Q1, this year 0-8. Last year 4-0 in Q2, this year 6-1. Last year last four in, this year last 8 in grouping. Now last year a win at Duke changed the Heels season for the better leading to a run to the national championship game. Well the Heels fell to Duke over a week ago but like last year the upcoming schedule provides ample opportunity for them to make their push. Right now just the win over NC State and perhaps Clemson are wins vs the field. Michigan and Charleston are not going to move the needle. UNC has 4 toughies left and 3 of them (Mia, UVA, Duke) are at home. NC State is on the road. Get two of these and they dance. Simple as that.
(42) MEMPHIS 19-6: Been resisting putting the Tigers in. Not really the win at Temple that did much to improve their profile. It was more of a case of the bubble going pop pop pop all weekend around them. I know its not good to be swept by Tulane but that home one barely qualifies as Q3. Not overly excited by the 2-2 mark vs Q1 because Cincy does not count as a quality win. The Tigers are riding a win over two SEC bubbles Auburn and Texas A&M. They really want that loss to bubble Seton Hall back and another sketchy loss to St Louis. Yet while the resume screams meh there is nothing hideous about it. The SOS stuff of 93/56 is okay for a midmajor. The AAC conference rating fell off the cliff this year even as Houston remains on target for a one seed. Memphis remaining in the field likely hinges on what it does in its two matchups with Houston. Just do not think they can maintain their position here without a win over the Cougars and taking care of everyone else.
(80) WISCONSIN 14-10: No matter how many times we play whack-a-mole with the Badgers they keep popping up on the last 4 in line. No surprise everyone must remember. Say it with me...its body of work. Wisconsin is 5-6 in Q1 and 8-10Q1/2. You just are not going to find those kind of numbers this deep in the bubble. Road wins at Marquette and Iowa. Home win over Maryland, neutral site win over USC. These are good wins and no loss still outside Q2. Overall SOS is a sparkling 9. The Badgers followed up a possible turning point win at Penn State with a dreadful performance at Nebraska and while that counts as a Q2 loss, at this point tourney teams just cannot be losing to teams like that. Their biggest issue is that it becomes the 10 loss putting them into a tough situation going forward where going worse than 3-3 means a trip to the Big 10 tourney finals. Even at 3-3 it means they will have to annex 2 Big 10 wins. Can they go 4-2 in their last 6.? Well they have lost 8 of their last 11, you decide. Next 5 are brutal.....3 at home vs the likes of Purdue, RU, and Iowa. 2 tilts with Michigan and a trip against woeful Minnesota to round out the season. That 80 NET evokes comparisons to Rutgers but one thing we learned, who you beat matters more than a metric ranking. If they can somehow wins some of these games, they get in.
(46) KENTUCKY 16-9: Cats suffered a rough week starting with a home loss to bubble Arkansas but then a stinging loss at Georgia. The latter still qualifies as Q2 but make no mistake it was costly. Cats already have a Q4 loss to South Carolina. With a resume that shows just 1-7 vs Q1, they cannot have additional warts cropping up. Kentucky is mainly riding the crest of the road win at Tennessee. While the Vols are still on the 3 line, that win is losing some luster. Cats are 6-1 in Q2 which shows Texas A&M, Michigan and Florida.....problem is none of the schools are projected in the field right now. Is a win over Tennessee and Yale good enough to make a case? Absolutely not and UK will either play their way in or out in the next 6....4 Q1s and a Q1. The next two at Miss State and home to Tennessee could really change their trajectory swiftly in the next week. Wouldn't the NCAA love to have them in a first four game.
(77) CLEMSON 18-7: Begrudgingly going to keep the Tigers in the field. Another case of who you beat rather than who you lost to. An absolutely ugly NET at 77, the Tigers were being evaluated for much of the season as the AQ from the ACC but 3 losses in a row have changed all that. No harm in losing to Miami and UNC but the loss to BC was egregious. That was only a Q3 but they already had 2 Q4 losses to awful South Carolina and lowly Loyola Chicago. Yet 2-3 in Q1 but a potent 7-4 in Q1/2. These are impressive wins folks...at ACC AQ Pitt, Duke, North Carolina State. Further down there is a sweep of wrong side bubble Va Tech. Plus two more wins over bubbles Wake and Penn State. Is this truly that bad of a profile or is it just hamstrung by a couple of bad losses. The weak ACC going to hurt them serving up 3 dregs on the schedule that can only do harm. The only resume building games left are both on the road to Virginia and NC State and I am not going out on a limb when I say the Tigers are going to have to win one of those to maintain a spot in the field heading into the ACC tourney.
(48) NEW MEXICO 18-6: Lobos are barely hanging on here after an 0-2 week. Not a shame to lose to Nevada at the buzzer but the loss at Air Force has relegated the Lobos to all bets are off territory. Tell you this much, it was excruciatingly difficult trying to parse a last spot between New Mexico and Boise. Boise has the better metrics yet to me I always come back to the line repeating in my head...who you beat and where did you beat them. The committee values this over anything. Thats why on February 13, I give the spot here to the Lobos. New Mexico won at St Marys which is the best OOC win in the Mountain West. They won at AQ San Diego State. They beat Boise in their only meeting of the season. There are nifty wins vs 2 low major AQs in Oral Roberts and Iona. Thats impressive. T 3-3 Q1, 5-3, Q1/2, 8-3 Q3hey do now have 3 Q3s but Boise has a Q3 and a Q4. Despite losses in 4 of last 5, keep repeating body of work. I think the Lobos have exhausted their mulligans for now. Absolutely cannot afford another loss outside of Q2. A trip to Boise looms which will likely decide alot of things but there is a home game with Aztecs and a shot at sweeping them could prove bountiful.
TWELVE SEEDS
THIRTEEN SEEDS
FOURTEEN SEEDS
FIFTEEN SEEDS
SIXTEEN SEEDS
BUBBLE OUT
(27) BOISE STATE 18-6: Trying to make a case for Boise's inclusion is difficult here. I have always heard it been said by many a bracketologist, "If all you have is metrics, you have nothing". To me that sums up Boise at the moment. A 27 NET would be the top rated NET school left out this season and possibly in history. Yeah I get the Broncs have a win over Nevada who is projected in the field and then Texas A&M projected in the first 4 out but to me why is that deserving? Perhaps if no blemishes but here we see Q3 loss to Charlotte and a Q4 loss to South Dakota State. I know those 5 middle of the road wins in Q2 like Colorado, St Louis, Washington State bring that mark up to 7-4 but when I compare them to New Mexico, I see the Lobos beat more quality teams and beat them on the road. Like I said things are going to change. Boise and New Mexico clash next week and the Broncs can easily flop back into the field with a victory. There is also another matchup with San Diego State where the Broncs could possibly takeover as the MWC AQ and they are good enough to win the MWC tourney too. Just right now I do not like them on February 13 selecting the field at 4:39PM.
(50) OREGON 15-11: Ducks suffering bloat at 15-11 but that win over Arizona is still one of the better wins around the bubble. The 4-7 vs Q1 and 8-9 vs Q1/2 look better than it is though. Right now they are down to just 2 wins over tourney teams...Arizona and the fine win over Nevada. Did knock off USC last week but the Trojans have now tumbled out of the field. Split with bubble ASU and won at far distant bubble Utah. 2 Q3 losses to AQ Utah Valley State and Ca Irvine are actually not that bad. The SOS numbers are willing at 16/34, With no quality win chances left until the Pac 12, the Ducks are in a situation here where they likely have to win out. There a tricky trip to the Washington schools but they and the rest of the final 3 are mediocrity personified. If Ducks are truly a NCAA team they get it together and do what they need to do. Yet the Pac 12 tourney always provides enough wackiness to keep all the Pac 12 bubble schools hanging around.
(62) USC 17-8: Trojans did not help themselves with a loss to fellow Pac 12 bubble Oregon but things go western until a hideous loss at Oregon State two nights later. It's their 2nd Q3 and that early Florida Golf Coast is barely hanging there nearly a Quad 4. The Trojans overall NET is tanking down to 62. Sure the win over UCLA is worth more than one win but beyond that there is just a win over fading Auburn. Add a loss to bubble Wisconsin to the loss to bubble Oregon and you can see USC is in trouble here. Yes the 5-2 mark in Q2 tries to make up for the 2-4 Q1 but not many decent wins there. Best road win is just Arizona State. Red flags all over the place. The two Arizona schools to conclude the season become almost must wins. USC had better win the other 4 too and that includes tough road tilts at Utah and Colorado.
(33) TEXAS A&M 18-7: Aggies still find themselves in 2nd place in the SEC riding some incredibly favorable scheduling. Still give them credit. They swept Auburn and knocked off Missouri. Its a good starter to the a resume but at this point it is not enough. 2-4 vs Q1, 5-5 in Q1/2 is more like a mid major. It is really not enough when you also have 2 Q4s on the docket to Murray State and Wofford. It is body of work and unless you have significant wins it is hard to ignore 2 Quad 4 losses. To further amplify their futility out of conference in bright lights there are losses to bubbles Memphis and Boise. A loss to Colorado is Q2 but it was by 28 points. The OOC mark checks in at 257. Yet we will know by SEC tourney time. 5 of their last 6 are Quad 1 games. Home games with Bama, Tennessee, Arkansas and road trips to Mizzou and Mississippi State. Can they get at least 2 of these to maintain pace? 3 would vault them in.
(61) SETON HALL 14-11: Pirates are hanging on like the walking dead. Very good starter wins over UConn and at Rutgers and a nifty one over Memphis and that makes up the 3-6 Q1 mark but Q2 does not work here.....2-4 and the 5-10 combined Q1/2 record is a non starter for getting in. Pirates need at least 2 more significant wins and they failed to get one vs Creighton last week and further compounded their profile by losing at Villanova. 3 Quad 1 games remaining...at UConn, Xavier, and at Providence and SHU will need to absolutely win two of these plus beat Nova/Gtown. If they head into the BE tourney at 17-13, their only shot would be to make the finals. Just not seeing it this year for them.
(73) WAKE FOREST 17-9: The ACC is the 7th rated conference and Wake is 8th in a crowded ACC pecking order. ACC will get 5 schools for sure. Odds are fairly good to get a 6. While they may have 7 slotted today it probably is unlikely that holds. I know the committee does not assign bids to conferences but how in the world can Wake compete as an 8th. Tough sledding for the Deacons and much of this was self inflicted. Although Wake stopped the bleeding last week with a win over UNC, it was going 0-4 earlier in January during a gauntlet of games vs NCAA teams that may have sealed their fate. Their overall NET has sunk to 73 and their OOC of 202 does not help them here. Now 0-5 in Q1, a better 4-3 in Q2 but again a mark like 4-8 in the first 2 Quads will not work for the committee. Yes a win over Duke to go along with UNC and a win at Wisconsin and a win over Clemson so that makes 4 wins vs tourney field. That's going to at least keep them on the soft underbelly of the bubble for now Two games on the road at NC State and Miami are up next and its make or break time.. I'd say they need both.
(65) ARIZONA STATE 18-8: Let's admit, the Sun Devils do not have much to offer. Do not get fooled by the 3-2 Q1/6-7 Q2 stuff. A neutral site win over Creighton is starting to gain some heat but um what else is there? A split with bubble Oregon, a loss to bubble USC, a 25 point over distant bubble Michigan? Well there is a win over VCU who is the projected A10 AQ and 16th seed AQ Alcorn State. Then we have a Quad 4 loss at Texas Southern. I suppose the Sun Devils are here mainly because they still have a one in a million chance given that they close with Arizona, UCLA and USC. The problem is they are all on the road and ASU already went 0-3 vs them this year. Need 2 of those plus Col/Utah in Tempe.
(68) MICHIGAN 14-11: Wolverines let a Quad 1 opportunity slip through their fingers vs Indiana and now are forced to deal with a loss total becoming unmanageable. A lot of that is reflected in their futility in Quad 1 at just 2-9, Q2 brings their overall mark in both to just 6-10 which will not get it done. The Q4 loss to Central Michigan is looming large for a few reasons but mainly because it prevents their needed cushion above 500. At just 3 games above 500 with 6 games left, the Wolverines must at minimum go 4-2. 3-3 sends them into the Big 10 tourney at 17-14 and that is just too much water to take onto a profile that lacks the giant wins they had last season with a similar record. Certainly the highlight is the sweep of surging Northwestern and ACC leader Pitt and we can throw in another quality win over Maryland. On the negative side that 25 point loss to ASU smarts. Losses to bubbles in North Carolina/Kentucky will be noticed. If anyone has checked their schedule...oof. Road games at Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana, two games with bubble Wisconsin and a home game with Sparty. Tall task.
(67) PENN STATE 14-11: It is a shame that the Lions have hit a wall of late because they were building up a decent resume. Wins at Illinois and home to Indiana/Iowa still are dandy. Like Michgan, the sheer loss total is the main issue now and its making their margin of error slim. Nothing short of 4-2 down the stretch keeps them alive. Can they get 2 of 3 vs Ill/RU/MD at home and beat OSU/Minny on the road? Would not count on it with the way they have been playing. 2-5 in Q1/5-10 Q2 is screaming NIT. Note OOC losses to Clemson and Va Tech.
(56) VIRGINIA TECH 15-10: Hokies reaching their last legs after Boston College completed the season sweep over them. The first loss was Q3 but this one is Q4. I know that conference mark is not considered but the Hokies are 5-9 in the ACC. Despite that they have beaten Duke, Virginia, NC State, and Clemson in league plus there is a non conference win over Oklahoma State. Its a maddening profile 2-4 vs Q1, Q2: 5-7 is not enough to get it done though. They lost to Syracuse on the road. A road mark of 1-7 is horrific. 3 quality games left in league...Pitt, Miami at home and Duke on the road plus their are 3 absolute sisters of the poor. Can Va Tech win two of those and then sweep the other 3 because nothing short of 5-1 gets it done for them before the ACC tourney.
(59) CHARLESTON 22-3: The good news is Charleston will be on the board and will be considered as an at large. The bad news is that the Cougars are this far down on the bubble list 4 weeks out pretty much says it all about what they have to do to get in the field. Win the Colonial tournament. Its not like they can't. They are tied with Hofstra for first but the Flying Dutchmen hold the tiebreak by virtue of their win over the Cougars. Looks like just one loss too many for them. If they had 2 now they probably could sustain that 3rd in the CAA tourney. Highlights are the win over Virginia Tech and MAC AQ Kent State. No shame in losing to North Carolina or top 100 Hofstra. It's the loss at 189 Drexel that they will be cursing. The 329/296 SOS is the grim reaper waiting in the shadows.
(37) UTAH STATE 17-9: Aggies are here solely because their metrics have them at 37. 0-4 in Q1, if you only have metrics you have nothing. Well if you think wins over New Mexico, AQ Oral Roberts, AQ Utah Valley move the needle then there is more. The bottom line is the Aggies compete in the 5th rated conference in the country yet they have gone 0-4 vs the top 3 schools in league. A road loss to San Jose State over the weekend is considered Q2 but its a more devastating loss to their profile in reality. Yet we have not even mentioned they have two hideous Quad 4 losses to SMU and Weber State. The NCAA tourney is not a charity. USU needs to win out their last 5 which means knocking off Nevada AND Boise to put themselves back in the NCAA tourney.
Additionally there are other schools that are languishing in the sticky residue of the bubble growing spores and mold. Not worth writeups at the moment until some unlikely zombie resurrection occurs.....FLORIDA, TEXAS TECH, VANDERBILT, UTAH, SAINT JOHN'S, NORTH TEXAS, CENTRAL FLORIDA, CINCINNATI, SANTA CLARA, LOYOLA MARYMOUNT, SYRACUSE, GEORGIA
LAST FOUR BYES: NEVADA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, MEMPHIS
LAST FOUR IN: NEW MEXICO, CLEMSON, KENTUCKY, WISCONSIN
FIRST FOUR OUT: BOISE STATE, OREGON, USC, TEXAS A&M
NEXT FOUR OUT: SETON HALL, WAKE FOREST, ARIZONA STATE, MICHIGAN
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 13 at large locks leaving 23 available spots in the field. I am projecting 38 schools competing for those 23 open spots. Everyone up the 5 seed line is locked in right now.
TheKnightReport - BACATOLOGY -- First 2023 NCAA bracket projections -- 2/13 Edition
Here's the first of what will be several editions of TKR member Bac2TheRac's NCAA Basketball bracket predictions.
rutgers.rivals.com
ONE SEEDS
- ALABAMA*
- PURDUE*
- KANSAS
- HOUSTON*
TWO SEEDS
- TEXAS*
- UCLA*
- ARIZONA
- BAYLOR
THREE SEEDS
- VIRGINIA
- IOWA STATE
- KANSAS STATE
- XAVIER
FOUR SEEDS
- GONZAGA
- TENNESSEE
- MARQUETTE*
- INDIANA
FIVE SEEDS
- CONNECTICUT
- TCU
- SAINT MARY'S*
- MIAMI
SIX SEEDS
(13) CREIGHTON 17-8: Bluejays got a big win over Connecticut that really legitimatized a profile that has rapidly recovered from an ugly 6 game skid earlier in the year. Now winners of 8 in a row, Creighton has pulled to within a half game of first in the Big East with a very doable schedule down the stretch. Q1 mark now up to 4-5 in Q1 and 8-7 in Q2. Other big wins include Arkansas, Xavier and Providence. The NET soaring to 13 plus the SOS of 24/30 are signs that their seeding possibilities are expanding upward. 3 of next 4 are on the road to Providence, St Johns, Nova and sandwiched in between is Marquette so this stretch is going to determine how far they can rise or if they hang around the 6-7 line.
(44) NORTHWESTERN 18-7: Wildcats annexed their biggest win in program history by knocking off #1 Purdue and have soared up the seed list. Think bracketologists have been sleeping on them all year. The resume was strong before the Purdue win. Their work on the road has been impressive with wins at Indiana, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. Throw in a home win over Illinois, another over Wisconsin and a sneaky good neutral site with over ASun AQ Liberty and that gives them 7 wins vs teams projected in the field at this moment. Overall NET lags at 44 but that hideous 29 point loss at home to Pitt has a lot to do with it. The non conference sos at 243 isnt too hot and 8 of their wins do come from Quad 4 but that won't matter. Cats have a brutal schedule down the stretch with 3 rough road trips to Ill/MD/RU so getting a win at home vs Ind/Iowa in this upcoming stretch could give them some breathing space and take some pressure off.
(45) MISSOURI 19-6: Notched their biggest win of the season by winning at Tennessee. 4 Q1 wins also include a conference win over Arkansas but they really sparkled OOC by notching wins over Illinois and Iowa State. 8-6 overall in Q1/2 includes a win too over bubble Kentucky. No loss outside Q1, their worst loss is a home loss to Florida. They are close to locking in but there is a testy three game stretch ahead at Auburn, Miss St, and Texas A&M that they need to navigate with at least a win to be sure and avoid ugly losses against the SEC bottom feeders to close the season.
(22) ILLINOIS 17-7: Illini's profile was riding mostly off of 2 feather in their cap wins over Texas and UCLA but the win over Rutgers was a big one to push them up the seed line as it was just their 3 Q1 win. Overall in the top 2 Quads, they are now 7-6 win shows a win over Michigan State and they did sweep fading Wisconsin. Still a clean profile with no bad losses and SOS marks at 37/89 are solid enough. Tough schedule to close starting with a dangerous trip to Penn State who already beat them this year followed by a trip to Indiana. Games vs Northwestern and at Purdue also loom so Illinois is no guarantee to stay on this seed line. Playing at a high level though should feel pretty safe anyhow.
SEVEN SEEDS
(39) IOWA 16-9: Hawkeyes are really starting to stack quality wins as they now have amassed a whopping 7 Q1 wins and 10 total in Q1/2. 8 wins vs teams projected in the field if you include Clemson: Rutgers 2x, Iowa State, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern plus wins over wrong side of the bubble Michigan. SOS is a strong 23 and just that one blemish a stunning home loss to Eastern Illinois that is going to be completely overlooked. Hawkeyes have a more than manageable 6 game stretch to close the Big 10 season at home at least but the 3 road games will provide a challenge where they have not been as sharp. Could wind up as high as a 5 seed or low as a 10 depending on what happens but we will stop short here of locking them in just yet.
(21) RUTGERS 16-9: Absolutely nothing wrong with losing two Big 10 road games vs schools projected on the 4 and 6 seed line in the big picture. RU is still a fine 4-6 in Q1 and 8-8 in Q1/2. However the Mag injury looms large as defense has dropped a couple notches and the Knights do not seem to have the depth to give them much offense. The schedule going forward is a double edged sword. On the one hand its very favorable...only 2 games vs schools projected in the field and 2 games vs 2 of the weaker schools in the Big 10. 3 road games but again to 3 schools in the bottom 5 of the league. What it means is that there really isnt much opportunity to beef up the resume for seeding. Makes that season finale Northwestern game a real important one. Still if the Knights can take care of business and win half of these they are a lock to dance, if they get only 2 then their metric will start to slide rapidly and you will seem them drop near that 11 line making a Big 10 tourney win an imperative. The SOS is currently at 31 overall but that will slide a bit in the next 6. The OOC of 306 is butt ugly and almost the worst on this list. No way around it and we hope RU does not fall toward the bubble because that mark plus the lack of any OOC win of note will loom large. RU was without a couple key players for losses to Miami and Temple but any injury factor now will be balanced out by the loss of Mag for the year so do not look at the injury thing as being any kind of factor for RU plus or minus. The win at Purdue is still the best win in the country so Rutgers will keep milking that forever. The win at Northwestern looking better and better. Maryland and Michigan State are surging so those wins are looking better as well. Yeah the road mark at just 2-6 and 2-7 neutral is terrible to look at, its worse than almost any school in this analysis. Though because those wins are Purdue and Northwestern, the road mark isnt going to be a factor unless RU loses at Minnesota. Getting back to a 5 seed level will be an enormous task. Knights are tracking anywhere from 6-10 seed but again with a poor finish can land right in that last 4 in grouping. Yet it is hard to fathom some of the most schools projected out of the field surpassing RU, yet it only takes one. Remember things do not occur in a vacuum so how the schools on the 6-8 lines do down the stretch will also have major impacts. The surges by Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern are greatly impacting Rutgers seeding.
(31) DUKE 17-8: No one is crying over the screw job done on the Blue Devils on a foul call waived off at the end of regulation that prevented a victory over Virginia that would have locked Duke in the field. Still the Blue Devils look to be relative safe with a very solid resume. Perhaps not as strong as we are used to seeing from them but as they are just 2-7 in Q1 although 7-8 in Q1/2. Wins over Xavier and Iowa on neutral courts give lift to the non conference stuff. In league the Devils have notched wins over AQ Pitt, Miami and UNC. No bad losses here though 8 of their wins are coming from Q4. ACC way down once again so a bunch of landmines coming up in the stretch with two tilts with NC State/UNC at end of the year as the only real shots at picking up anymore quality wins. Looking fairly safe.
(19) SAN DIEGO STATE* 19-5: Aztec are the projected AQ from Mountain West. With only a half game lead up on Nevada and still with road trips to New Mexico and Boise coming up, the spot as AQ may be tenuous. With Ohio State tailspin, they lack anything OOC and have largely compiled their quality wins in league over the likes of Boise, Nevada and a sweep of Utah State. With Boise on the edge, that makes just one win over teams currently in the field. The metrics love them and 3-4 in Q1 and 8-5 in Q1/2 look strong plus the 10-0 mark in Q3 really emphasizes the schedule strength here at 43/32 with just one Q4 game on the schedule. Certainly have some strengths here and we think they could sustain those 2 losses on the road but any slip ups at Fresno or to one of Colorado State/Wyoming at home, They have not absorbed a bad loss yet so it would be a stretch to think they shouldn't be anything but confident about their chances of dancing.
EIGHT SEEDS
(36) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20-6: Wolfpack flaunting a gaudy win total yet their lack of flesh on the resume is holding them back in the pecking order. Just 2-4 in Q1 games and those are to schools not projected in the field...4-2 in Q2 shows their biggest wins of Miami and Duke. Yes there is a sneaky good win over Furman but garnering just two wins vs the field raises questions. 10 of their 20 wins are in Q4 including 4 from the ACC alone! That non conference sos of 243 is not good but again no bad losses. Well here comes their gauntlet. First up a landmine at Syracuse, then 3 straight home games vs UNC, Wake and Clemson before the season finale at Duke. Those 3 home tilts are all against bubble schools so each one takes on great importance. Pack would lock things up by handling Cuse and winning 2 of those at home. Certainly a potential to improve their seeding or watch it fall into a freefall.
(32) MICHIGAN STATE 16-9: Spartan starting to climb in the metrics albeit that 6-7 mark vs Q1 may not be quite as good as it seems. In their toughest games they have gone 0-7 but have picked up very good wins over Rutgers and Maryland. Oregon and Kentucky are borderline in/out right now, while OSU/PSU are clearly out. There are Q2 wins over Iowa and Wisconsin. The Q3 loss to Notre Dame will prove irrelevant. Metrics alone not going to find better numbers of 9-8 in Q1/2 down on the 8/9 line., The SOS of 3 is raging! For them its all about taking care of business. Two very winnable home games vs bottom feeders and another road game at a weak Nebby. Games at Michigan and home vs Indiana/Iowa will be tough but its hard to imagine them not being able to snare a couple of these. Could rise significantly in the seeding with a strong finish.
(28) MARYLAND 17-8: Terps have quietly crept up on everyone not only in the Big 10 but on the national scene as well. They simply keep winning the games they should, especially at home where they are 13-1 and have avoided sustaining any bad losses all season long. Overall the resume does not wow....3-7 vs Q1, Q1/2 6-8 could be better yet the Illinois/Indiana wins with the neutral site win over Miami and three wins that look better and better as we go through the season. There is a win over projected for now Wisconsin that resides in Q3 for now. Ceiling wise things may be capped as their last 6 are not exactly murderers row. Its more landmines that quality win opportunities. Purdue/Northwestern are their two biggies left both at home. It would be great to snag one of those to lock them in but probably just not absorbing bad losses keeps them on the good side of the bubble.
(18) FLORIDA ATLANTIC* 22-2: Currently the CUSA AQ, the Owls continue to ride insane metrics. Whether those metrics are inflated cannot be answered but what is true is at 22-2 with no loss outside Q2, FAU looks like they may be able to sustain another loss and still get an at large bid. That means navigate the last 5 vs mediocre competition and it will not matter what transpires in the CUSA tourney. 2-1 vs Q1/5-2 vs Q1/2..... Q1 loss to UAB and Q2 at Ole Miss. There is a win over Florida here that looks very good for a midmajor. Also sweep of decent CUSA foe North Texas and did enact revenge over UAB. 17 wins are from Q3/4 but its a better sign that 10 of them are from Q3. 15-2 vs Q1/2/3 is excellent for a midmajor.
NINE SEEDS
(51) PITTSBURGH* 18-7: Believe it or not, the Panthers are currently the AQ from the ACC. A sort of Jekyll and Hyde profile with several quality wins and a profile hamstrung by two ugly losses that are crashing their metrics. First the good. The 4-2 Q1, 8-5 Q1/2 mark. A stunning 7-2 road mark. Wins at NC State, UNC, Northwestern. Home wins vs Virginia, Duke, Miami. The Panthers are legit in the ACC. Northwestern's surge is buoying Pitt's profile. What is dragging their NET down to 51 was the 25 point loss at home to WVU and a 31 point neutral site loss to bubble Michigan. Add in a Q4 home loss to Florida State and you get this mixed bag. Still the NCAA committee values who you beat and the Panthers have done more than enough winning. The stretch is all about avoiding those nasty booby traps in the ACC. Just a trip to Miami vs a NCAA projected team, Pitt has to handle the likes of Cuse, BC, at ND to remain in a nice spot.
(43) PROVIDENCE 18-7: Not sure what the AP top 25 voters are thinking but the Friars do not have a lot of meat on the profile. Sure the home wins over UConn and Marquette are impressive but that is it folks. Winning on the road at Seton Hall and Nova do not exactly carry cache this season. There is a Q3 loss to St Louis and more startling is 9 of their 18 wins are in Q4. Their weekend loss at St John's might actually be worse than the St Louis loss and now raises questions. Did absolutely nothing OOC with their best road win being 230 URI on the road and that is reflected in that shaky 274 non conference mark. Friars absolutely need more and that starts with a game vs Creighton on Tuesday. Further along is a home game vs Xavier and a trip to UConn. Going to have to find one win there at least and then win the games they should vs Nova/SHU at home.
(29) OKLAHOMA STATE 16-9: Cowboys are getting there slowly but surely. Left for dead at 9-8, the Pokes have now won 7 of 8, sweeping ISU, knocking off TCU and taking care of business vs the two weaker schools OU/TT in the Big 12. Overall Net has soared in the top 30. Q1 is 4-6, Q1/2 up to 7-8. There is an earlier win over WVU. Not much OOC as there is a Q3 loss to So Illinois while also losing to the likes of Va Tech and UCF and their best win there is just Sam Houston. OSU going to have to keep things going though and will face an acid test in their next 5....KU, at TCU, at WVU, KSU, Bay before finishing up traveling to TTech. Would be good to get that one signature win in this stretch. Going to need 2 wins here or else they fall into that situation that has torpedoed many bloated Big 12 schools in previous seasons.
(25) WEST VIRGINIA 15-10: Mountaineers are clear a cut below the top 6 in the Big 12 as reflected in their 4-8 conference mark. Solid overall metrics yet with the Big 12 is such a double edged sword. Q1 win opportunities galore yet annexing them can be difficult. Would not want to see WVU annex too many losses in their final 6. Brutal road games at Baylor, KU, ISU and more manageable home games vs Tex Tech, OSU, KSU. Want to get 3 of these because heading into the Big 10 tourney at 17-14 and the possibility of a loss puts them at 17-15 and in a spot where history has shown Big 12 teams will not get picked and while they have good wins, they lack any signature win. 4-9 vs Q1, 7-10 vs Q2. The wins of note are Iowa State, TCU and the two OOC Pitt and Auburn. Those two are good to have given the proximity to those schools here in the pecking order. No bad losses and the SOS of 4 are big positives going forward but again its mainly going to come down to that whether the committee can stomach a bloated record.
TEN SEEDS
(35) AUBURN 17-8: Once 16-3, the Tigers have dropped 5 of 6 and lost to every school with a pulse over the last month. Yes it is officially panic time. The reality is that even before the recent skid, their profile was more win total than quality wins. Certainly that narrow neutral site win over Northwestern is taking on great importance. The wins over Arky and Miss State are other two solid wins but yet they ride at the lower end of the this bubble in pecking order. 2-6 vs Q1 but a better 7-8 Q1/2. Still a clean profile but that loss at Georgia is teetering on Quad 3. Resume is screaming out for a signature win. Will not get another chance til a trip to Bama and home tilt with Tennessee in the season finale, but this weeks game at home vs Missouri is a game they really need or else the Tigers are headed for an extended stay in the last 8 in grouping. Dangerous trips to Vandy and Kentucky later might bounce them out of the field entirely.
(23) ARKANSAS 17-8: The metrics belie the lack of substance on the resume. The loss at home to fellow bubble Mississippi State was one step backward for the Hogs who took a step forward with a win at Kentucky a few days earlier. Q1 numbers at 2-5 show that win over Kentucky and a ooc win over San Diego State. To add to that in Q2 are wins over Missouri and last 4 in/out Texas A&M>. Q1/2 6-7 is okay but not great. There is a Q3 loss here to LSU so they do not want to add to this. Arky needs some quality wins....4 shots at it but included are road trips at Bama/Tenn. More achievable is at Texas A&M this Wednesday and Kentucky to close the season. Grab those two and they will be in pretty good shape. Otherwise they float toward the mendoza line.
(30) NEVADA 19-6: Wolfpack eking out that road win at New Mexico last week vaulted them back into the field. They really needed a quality road win and it gave them a sweep over the Lobos plus adding another quality win to the wins over Boise and San Diego State. 3-4 vs Q1 and 7-6 Q1/2 are pretty strong numbers from a school from this conference who by the way is rated ahead of the Pac 12 and ACC. While they lack a signature non conference wins the sos stuff at 54/119 are solid. No losses outside Q2 seem to rate them above the other 2 serious MVC bubbles but things can change quickly. Pack have a dangerous game coming up at longshot bubble Utah State. Its their last Q1 chance. as they get bunch of mediocrity to close the season. Take care of business.
(41) MISSISSIPPI STATE 17-8: Let's just say the gap from the 3 schools ahead of MSU to the Tigers on the 10 line is pretty enormous. Its more like last 7 in grouping than last 8. This grouping of 7 in all the way through first 4 are out is incredibly tight. 11 schools vying for 7 spots with others possibly waiting in the wings. Tigers vaulting into the field with just a road win at Arkansas shows how cramped things are around the bubble. Mississippi State has now won 5 in row and 3 of those are against projected tourney teams. They have erased their woeful 1-7 SEC mark and literally built their resume overnight. 3-5 vs Q1 and 2-3 vs Q2 for 5-8 admittedly is not all that great. Its the deeper dive showing 4 wins vs tourney teams..Marquette, TCU, Missouri, Arkansas that is impressive and matches up well compared to the other 10 teams they are fighting with. While there are no losses outside Q2, Tigers are in too tenuous a position right now to accrue more than maybe one bad loss. Games vs Kentucky and Texas A&M are bubble type play in games each night for all participants. Some things also working against them are that 9 wins came in Quad 4,, its alot and that non conference sos of 230 shows that.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(40) NORTH CAROLINA 16-9: Heels did not fare well in their first 3 gauntlet games but did manage to score a win over former ACC AQ Clemson and while those Tigers are just barely hanging onto their bid that win was enough to push the Heels in for now. The whys of why the Heels are on the right side of the bubble over others with no Q1 wins largely stems from the idea that they have not done anything wrong. Their worst loss is Pitt, 8 of their 9 losses are in Q1. The SOS is 33/17 which is potent combo to have on the bubble. One year later, Heels find themselves almost in the exact same spot. Last year 18-7, this year 16-9 Last year NET 37, this year NET 40, Last year 0-7 in Q1, this year 0-8. Last year 4-0 in Q2, this year 6-1. Last year last four in, this year last 8 in grouping. Now last year a win at Duke changed the Heels season for the better leading to a run to the national championship game. Well the Heels fell to Duke over a week ago but like last year the upcoming schedule provides ample opportunity for them to make their push. Right now just the win over NC State and perhaps Clemson are wins vs the field. Michigan and Charleston are not going to move the needle. UNC has 4 toughies left and 3 of them (Mia, UVA, Duke) are at home. NC State is on the road. Get two of these and they dance. Simple as that.
(42) MEMPHIS 19-6: Been resisting putting the Tigers in. Not really the win at Temple that did much to improve their profile. It was more of a case of the bubble going pop pop pop all weekend around them. I know its not good to be swept by Tulane but that home one barely qualifies as Q3. Not overly excited by the 2-2 mark vs Q1 because Cincy does not count as a quality win. The Tigers are riding a win over two SEC bubbles Auburn and Texas A&M. They really want that loss to bubble Seton Hall back and another sketchy loss to St Louis. Yet while the resume screams meh there is nothing hideous about it. The SOS stuff of 93/56 is okay for a midmajor. The AAC conference rating fell off the cliff this year even as Houston remains on target for a one seed. Memphis remaining in the field likely hinges on what it does in its two matchups with Houston. Just do not think they can maintain their position here without a win over the Cougars and taking care of everyone else.
(80) WISCONSIN 14-10: No matter how many times we play whack-a-mole with the Badgers they keep popping up on the last 4 in line. No surprise everyone must remember. Say it with me...its body of work. Wisconsin is 5-6 in Q1 and 8-10Q1/2. You just are not going to find those kind of numbers this deep in the bubble. Road wins at Marquette and Iowa. Home win over Maryland, neutral site win over USC. These are good wins and no loss still outside Q2. Overall SOS is a sparkling 9. The Badgers followed up a possible turning point win at Penn State with a dreadful performance at Nebraska and while that counts as a Q2 loss, at this point tourney teams just cannot be losing to teams like that. Their biggest issue is that it becomes the 10 loss putting them into a tough situation going forward where going worse than 3-3 means a trip to the Big 10 tourney finals. Even at 3-3 it means they will have to annex 2 Big 10 wins. Can they go 4-2 in their last 6.? Well they have lost 8 of their last 11, you decide. Next 5 are brutal.....3 at home vs the likes of Purdue, RU, and Iowa. 2 tilts with Michigan and a trip against woeful Minnesota to round out the season. That 80 NET evokes comparisons to Rutgers but one thing we learned, who you beat matters more than a metric ranking. If they can somehow wins some of these games, they get in.
(46) KENTUCKY 16-9: Cats suffered a rough week starting with a home loss to bubble Arkansas but then a stinging loss at Georgia. The latter still qualifies as Q2 but make no mistake it was costly. Cats already have a Q4 loss to South Carolina. With a resume that shows just 1-7 vs Q1, they cannot have additional warts cropping up. Kentucky is mainly riding the crest of the road win at Tennessee. While the Vols are still on the 3 line, that win is losing some luster. Cats are 6-1 in Q2 which shows Texas A&M, Michigan and Florida.....problem is none of the schools are projected in the field right now. Is a win over Tennessee and Yale good enough to make a case? Absolutely not and UK will either play their way in or out in the next 6....4 Q1s and a Q1. The next two at Miss State and home to Tennessee could really change their trajectory swiftly in the next week. Wouldn't the NCAA love to have them in a first four game.
(77) CLEMSON 18-7: Begrudgingly going to keep the Tigers in the field. Another case of who you beat rather than who you lost to. An absolutely ugly NET at 77, the Tigers were being evaluated for much of the season as the AQ from the ACC but 3 losses in a row have changed all that. No harm in losing to Miami and UNC but the loss to BC was egregious. That was only a Q3 but they already had 2 Q4 losses to awful South Carolina and lowly Loyola Chicago. Yet 2-3 in Q1 but a potent 7-4 in Q1/2. These are impressive wins folks...at ACC AQ Pitt, Duke, North Carolina State. Further down there is a sweep of wrong side bubble Va Tech. Plus two more wins over bubbles Wake and Penn State. Is this truly that bad of a profile or is it just hamstrung by a couple of bad losses. The weak ACC going to hurt them serving up 3 dregs on the schedule that can only do harm. The only resume building games left are both on the road to Virginia and NC State and I am not going out on a limb when I say the Tigers are going to have to win one of those to maintain a spot in the field heading into the ACC tourney.
(48) NEW MEXICO 18-6: Lobos are barely hanging on here after an 0-2 week. Not a shame to lose to Nevada at the buzzer but the loss at Air Force has relegated the Lobos to all bets are off territory. Tell you this much, it was excruciatingly difficult trying to parse a last spot between New Mexico and Boise. Boise has the better metrics yet to me I always come back to the line repeating in my head...who you beat and where did you beat them. The committee values this over anything. Thats why on February 13, I give the spot here to the Lobos. New Mexico won at St Marys which is the best OOC win in the Mountain West. They won at AQ San Diego State. They beat Boise in their only meeting of the season. There are nifty wins vs 2 low major AQs in Oral Roberts and Iona. Thats impressive. T 3-3 Q1, 5-3, Q1/2, 8-3 Q3hey do now have 3 Q3s but Boise has a Q3 and a Q4. Despite losses in 4 of last 5, keep repeating body of work. I think the Lobos have exhausted their mulligans for now. Absolutely cannot afford another loss outside of Q2. A trip to Boise looms which will likely decide alot of things but there is a home game with Aztecs and a shot at sweeping them could prove bountiful.
TWELVE SEEDS
- ORAL ROBERTS*
- SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI*
- KENT STATE*
- VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH*
THIRTEEN SEEDS
- LIBERTY*
- UTAH VALLEY STATE*
- IONA*
- YALE*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
- HOFSTRA*
- DRAKE*
- FURMAN*
- UC-SANTA BARBARA*
FIFTEEN SEEDS
- VERMONT*
- COLGATE*
- EASTERN WASHINGTON*
- YOUNGSTOWN STATE*
SIXTEEN SEEDS
- UNC ASHEVILLE*
- TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI*
- MOREHEAD STATE*-FDU*
- ALCORN STATE*-HOWARD*
BUBBLE OUT
(27) BOISE STATE 18-6: Trying to make a case for Boise's inclusion is difficult here. I have always heard it been said by many a bracketologist, "If all you have is metrics, you have nothing". To me that sums up Boise at the moment. A 27 NET would be the top rated NET school left out this season and possibly in history. Yeah I get the Broncs have a win over Nevada who is projected in the field and then Texas A&M projected in the first 4 out but to me why is that deserving? Perhaps if no blemishes but here we see Q3 loss to Charlotte and a Q4 loss to South Dakota State. I know those 5 middle of the road wins in Q2 like Colorado, St Louis, Washington State bring that mark up to 7-4 but when I compare them to New Mexico, I see the Lobos beat more quality teams and beat them on the road. Like I said things are going to change. Boise and New Mexico clash next week and the Broncs can easily flop back into the field with a victory. There is also another matchup with San Diego State where the Broncs could possibly takeover as the MWC AQ and they are good enough to win the MWC tourney too. Just right now I do not like them on February 13 selecting the field at 4:39PM.
(50) OREGON 15-11: Ducks suffering bloat at 15-11 but that win over Arizona is still one of the better wins around the bubble. The 4-7 vs Q1 and 8-9 vs Q1/2 look better than it is though. Right now they are down to just 2 wins over tourney teams...Arizona and the fine win over Nevada. Did knock off USC last week but the Trojans have now tumbled out of the field. Split with bubble ASU and won at far distant bubble Utah. 2 Q3 losses to AQ Utah Valley State and Ca Irvine are actually not that bad. The SOS numbers are willing at 16/34, With no quality win chances left until the Pac 12, the Ducks are in a situation here where they likely have to win out. There a tricky trip to the Washington schools but they and the rest of the final 3 are mediocrity personified. If Ducks are truly a NCAA team they get it together and do what they need to do. Yet the Pac 12 tourney always provides enough wackiness to keep all the Pac 12 bubble schools hanging around.
(62) USC 17-8: Trojans did not help themselves with a loss to fellow Pac 12 bubble Oregon but things go western until a hideous loss at Oregon State two nights later. It's their 2nd Q3 and that early Florida Golf Coast is barely hanging there nearly a Quad 4. The Trojans overall NET is tanking down to 62. Sure the win over UCLA is worth more than one win but beyond that there is just a win over fading Auburn. Add a loss to bubble Wisconsin to the loss to bubble Oregon and you can see USC is in trouble here. Yes the 5-2 mark in Q2 tries to make up for the 2-4 Q1 but not many decent wins there. Best road win is just Arizona State. Red flags all over the place. The two Arizona schools to conclude the season become almost must wins. USC had better win the other 4 too and that includes tough road tilts at Utah and Colorado.
(33) TEXAS A&M 18-7: Aggies still find themselves in 2nd place in the SEC riding some incredibly favorable scheduling. Still give them credit. They swept Auburn and knocked off Missouri. Its a good starter to the a resume but at this point it is not enough. 2-4 vs Q1, 5-5 in Q1/2 is more like a mid major. It is really not enough when you also have 2 Q4s on the docket to Murray State and Wofford. It is body of work and unless you have significant wins it is hard to ignore 2 Quad 4 losses. To further amplify their futility out of conference in bright lights there are losses to bubbles Memphis and Boise. A loss to Colorado is Q2 but it was by 28 points. The OOC mark checks in at 257. Yet we will know by SEC tourney time. 5 of their last 6 are Quad 1 games. Home games with Bama, Tennessee, Arkansas and road trips to Mizzou and Mississippi State. Can they get at least 2 of these to maintain pace? 3 would vault them in.
(61) SETON HALL 14-11: Pirates are hanging on like the walking dead. Very good starter wins over UConn and at Rutgers and a nifty one over Memphis and that makes up the 3-6 Q1 mark but Q2 does not work here.....2-4 and the 5-10 combined Q1/2 record is a non starter for getting in. Pirates need at least 2 more significant wins and they failed to get one vs Creighton last week and further compounded their profile by losing at Villanova. 3 Quad 1 games remaining...at UConn, Xavier, and at Providence and SHU will need to absolutely win two of these plus beat Nova/Gtown. If they head into the BE tourney at 17-13, their only shot would be to make the finals. Just not seeing it this year for them.
(73) WAKE FOREST 17-9: The ACC is the 7th rated conference and Wake is 8th in a crowded ACC pecking order. ACC will get 5 schools for sure. Odds are fairly good to get a 6. While they may have 7 slotted today it probably is unlikely that holds. I know the committee does not assign bids to conferences but how in the world can Wake compete as an 8th. Tough sledding for the Deacons and much of this was self inflicted. Although Wake stopped the bleeding last week with a win over UNC, it was going 0-4 earlier in January during a gauntlet of games vs NCAA teams that may have sealed their fate. Their overall NET has sunk to 73 and their OOC of 202 does not help them here. Now 0-5 in Q1, a better 4-3 in Q2 but again a mark like 4-8 in the first 2 Quads will not work for the committee. Yes a win over Duke to go along with UNC and a win at Wisconsin and a win over Clemson so that makes 4 wins vs tourney field. That's going to at least keep them on the soft underbelly of the bubble for now Two games on the road at NC State and Miami are up next and its make or break time.. I'd say they need both.
(65) ARIZONA STATE 18-8: Let's admit, the Sun Devils do not have much to offer. Do not get fooled by the 3-2 Q1/6-7 Q2 stuff. A neutral site win over Creighton is starting to gain some heat but um what else is there? A split with bubble Oregon, a loss to bubble USC, a 25 point over distant bubble Michigan? Well there is a win over VCU who is the projected A10 AQ and 16th seed AQ Alcorn State. Then we have a Quad 4 loss at Texas Southern. I suppose the Sun Devils are here mainly because they still have a one in a million chance given that they close with Arizona, UCLA and USC. The problem is they are all on the road and ASU already went 0-3 vs them this year. Need 2 of those plus Col/Utah in Tempe.
(68) MICHIGAN 14-11: Wolverines let a Quad 1 opportunity slip through their fingers vs Indiana and now are forced to deal with a loss total becoming unmanageable. A lot of that is reflected in their futility in Quad 1 at just 2-9, Q2 brings their overall mark in both to just 6-10 which will not get it done. The Q4 loss to Central Michigan is looming large for a few reasons but mainly because it prevents their needed cushion above 500. At just 3 games above 500 with 6 games left, the Wolverines must at minimum go 4-2. 3-3 sends them into the Big 10 tourney at 17-14 and that is just too much water to take onto a profile that lacks the giant wins they had last season with a similar record. Certainly the highlight is the sweep of surging Northwestern and ACC leader Pitt and we can throw in another quality win over Maryland. On the negative side that 25 point loss to ASU smarts. Losses to bubbles in North Carolina/Kentucky will be noticed. If anyone has checked their schedule...oof. Road games at Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana, two games with bubble Wisconsin and a home game with Sparty. Tall task.
(67) PENN STATE 14-11: It is a shame that the Lions have hit a wall of late because they were building up a decent resume. Wins at Illinois and home to Indiana/Iowa still are dandy. Like Michgan, the sheer loss total is the main issue now and its making their margin of error slim. Nothing short of 4-2 down the stretch keeps them alive. Can they get 2 of 3 vs Ill/RU/MD at home and beat OSU/Minny on the road? Would not count on it with the way they have been playing. 2-5 in Q1/5-10 Q2 is screaming NIT. Note OOC losses to Clemson and Va Tech.
(56) VIRGINIA TECH 15-10: Hokies reaching their last legs after Boston College completed the season sweep over them. The first loss was Q3 but this one is Q4. I know that conference mark is not considered but the Hokies are 5-9 in the ACC. Despite that they have beaten Duke, Virginia, NC State, and Clemson in league plus there is a non conference win over Oklahoma State. Its a maddening profile 2-4 vs Q1, Q2: 5-7 is not enough to get it done though. They lost to Syracuse on the road. A road mark of 1-7 is horrific. 3 quality games left in league...Pitt, Miami at home and Duke on the road plus their are 3 absolute sisters of the poor. Can Va Tech win two of those and then sweep the other 3 because nothing short of 5-1 gets it done for them before the ACC tourney.
(59) CHARLESTON 22-3: The good news is Charleston will be on the board and will be considered as an at large. The bad news is that the Cougars are this far down on the bubble list 4 weeks out pretty much says it all about what they have to do to get in the field. Win the Colonial tournament. Its not like they can't. They are tied with Hofstra for first but the Flying Dutchmen hold the tiebreak by virtue of their win over the Cougars. Looks like just one loss too many for them. If they had 2 now they probably could sustain that 3rd in the CAA tourney. Highlights are the win over Virginia Tech and MAC AQ Kent State. No shame in losing to North Carolina or top 100 Hofstra. It's the loss at 189 Drexel that they will be cursing. The 329/296 SOS is the grim reaper waiting in the shadows.
(37) UTAH STATE 17-9: Aggies are here solely because their metrics have them at 37. 0-4 in Q1, if you only have metrics you have nothing. Well if you think wins over New Mexico, AQ Oral Roberts, AQ Utah Valley move the needle then there is more. The bottom line is the Aggies compete in the 5th rated conference in the country yet they have gone 0-4 vs the top 3 schools in league. A road loss to San Jose State over the weekend is considered Q2 but its a more devastating loss to their profile in reality. Yet we have not even mentioned they have two hideous Quad 4 losses to SMU and Weber State. The NCAA tourney is not a charity. USU needs to win out their last 5 which means knocking off Nevada AND Boise to put themselves back in the NCAA tourney.
Additionally there are other schools that are languishing in the sticky residue of the bubble growing spores and mold. Not worth writeups at the moment until some unlikely zombie resurrection occurs.....FLORIDA, TEXAS TECH, VANDERBILT, UTAH, SAINT JOHN'S, NORTH TEXAS, CENTRAL FLORIDA, CINCINNATI, SANTA CLARA, LOYOLA MARYMOUNT, SYRACUSE, GEORGIA
LAST FOUR BYES: NEVADA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, MEMPHIS
LAST FOUR IN: NEW MEXICO, CLEMSON, KENTUCKY, WISCONSIN
FIRST FOUR OUT: BOISE STATE, OREGON, USC, TEXAS A&M
NEXT FOUR OUT: SETON HALL, WAKE FOREST, ARIZONA STATE, MICHIGAN
Last edited:
