Week 3 of Bacatology. We are less than 2 weeks from Selection Sunday. Grab a bowl of chili on this wintry late February night and dive in. Early birds, see you and the donuts in the morning. Comments and questions are always welcome. Corrections are always helpful especially spelling. Tips are mandatory! This weekend just reminded us of the madness which is to come.
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 23 at large locks leaving 13 available spots in the field. I am projecting 23 schools competing for those 13 open spots. Everyone up to the last 8 seed is locked in right now.
ONE SEEDS
TWO SEEDS
THREE SEEDS
FOUR SEEDS
FIVE SEEDS
SIX SEEDS
7 SEEDS
8 SEEDS
9 SEEDS
1O SEEDS
11 SEEDS
TWELVE SEEDS
THIRTEEN SEEDS
FOURTEEN SEEDS
FIFTHTEEN SEEDS
SIXTEEN SEEDS
BUBBLE OUT
LAST 4 BYES: BOISE STATE, MEMPHIS, AUBURN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE
LAST 4 IN: WEST VIRGINA, USC, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN
FIRST 4 OUT: ARIZONA STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, PENN STATE
NEXT 4 OUT: CLEMSON, UTAH STATE, CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 23 at large locks leaving 13 available spots in the field. I am projecting 23 schools competing for those 13 open spots. Everyone up to the last 8 seed is locked in right now.
ONE SEEDS
- ALABAMA*
- HOUSTON*
- KANSAS*
- PURDUE*
TWO SEEDS
- UCLA*
- TEXAS
- BAYLOR
- ARIZONA
THREE SEEDS
- MARQUETTE*
- KANSAS STATE
- GONZAGA*
- TENNESSEE
FOUR SEEDS
- CONNECTICUT
- INDIANA
- VIRGINIA
- TCU
FIVE SEEDS
- SAINT MARY'S
- XAVIER
- IOWA STATE
- MIAMI
SIX SEEDS
- SAN DIEGO STATE*
- CREIGHTON
- MISSOURI
- NORTHWESTERN
7 SEEDS
- MARYLAND
- DUKE
- MICHIGAN STATE
- KENTUCKY
8 SEEDS
- IOWA
- ILLINOIS
- TEXAS A & M
- (14) ARKANSAS 19-10: Overall NET is glorious yet the flesh does not match the metrics. Just 3-7 in Q1 and 7-9 in Q1/2 their number likely inflated by their 10 Q3 win which is a rather large number. Razorbacks have just 4 wins vs schools projected in the field: San Diego State (their best win of the year), at Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Missouri. Note the 2-7 road mark. SOS numbers in their favor at 29/91. The answer to whether they are truly on the bubble really rests with how they finish. Two very tough games left at Tennessee and Kentucky. Should they lose both they do fall further down the seed line but probably above the last 4 in. With other SEC bubbles lurking, they might want to win a SEC tourney game for good measure.
9 SEEDS
- (32) RUTGERS 18-11: Scarlet Knights saved their season with an unbelievable rally at Penn State. It is about body of work but Rutgers' recent swoon had put some dings onto their resume. Another loss last night might have sent RU down to the 11 line. Yet RU found a way to notch their 6 Q1 win of the season and their 4th on the road. These are impressive numbers. The win at Purdue continues to be the flag bearer but the win at Northwestern, home wins vs Maryland, Indiana, Michigan State (which in reality should be a Q1 neutral site win), along with the win at Wisconsin gives them 6 wins vs schools projected in the field. 6-6 in Q1, 9-8 in Q1/2 is more than fine. Only reason they are not locked in now is because they can still potentially accrue a bad loss at Minnesota and the Knights already have a bulky loss total plus 3 Q3 losses to blemish the resume. Beat Minnesota and its all about trying to build that seed up. Would appear a tough challenged for Rutgers to get much higher than a 7 barring a run maybe to the Big 10 finals. Would seem all things are pointing to being stuck in the 8-9 game. A loss to Minnesota might not knock the Knights out of the field. RU could still lock in with wins in the finale vs Northwestern or a win in the Big 10 tourney. If RU were to lose out and finish 18-14, then RU is certainly on the bubble and then its up the mercy of the committee who can use things like OOC SOS of 312 with no ooc win of note and 4 Q3 loses as reasons to keep them out. Still would think more than likely the wins especially having 4 road wins vs tourney teams would supercede the bad and RU is more likely to be selected than not. Do they really want to find out?
- (37) PROVIDENCE 21-8: Still trying to figure out why the AP Top 25 voters keep voting the Friars in the poll every week. Look they have 3 great wins vs the top 3 in the Big East: Marquette, Creighton, and UConn all at home. That alone should be enough. Yet their overall numbers are just 3-6/6-8 in Q1/2. They have zero quality wins beyond the aforementioned 3. Non conference play sees their best win was home over 211 Rider. A whopping 15 wins in Q3/4 including 10 alone in Q4 and you can see that reflected in the non conference sos of 286. No loss outside Q2 though is the thing that probably makes them safe at this point. With home games vs Xavier and SHU left, would like to see them win one for good measure and not test where with a first round Big East tourney exit and 0-3 to end the season would put them
- (53) PITTSBURGH* 21-8: Once again Pitt has risen back up to the AQ spot in the ACC. With the ACC down at around 7 in the conference ratings this year and a few of the top schools faltering of late, its dragging the entire profiles of all the ACC schools. Pitt is not a stone cold lock yet because of a few flaws on a otherwise solid profile. First the good: 4-3 Q1 and 7-7 Q2 shows wins over Virginia/Miami plus road wins at NC State and Northwestern. In fact the Panthers are an impressive 7-3 on the road. There is also an important sweep over bubble North Carolina. Yet there is some baggage in some of those Q1/2 losses, a loss to Va Tech is considering Q1 but not a good one, there is a 31 point loss to bubble Michigan, a 25 point loss to bubble West Virginia, a loss to bubble Clemson, a loss to not even on the bubble Vandy. Then you get to the Q4 loss to Florida State and the fact that 10 of their 21 wins are coming from Q4. Hard to imagine that any ACC regular season winner would be left out. Still there is no guarantee the Panthers stay there. Two road games at Notre Dame and Miami await. No shame in losing at Miami but Pitt will need to avoid a bad loss vs the Irish. If they do that should be enough to dance.
- (19) FLORIDA ATLANTIC* 24-3: Owls are the projected AQ from Conference USA. Of all the mid majors they are most well positioned for an at large bid should they not win the CUSA tourney. For them its going to come down to taking care of business on the road at Rice and Louisiana Tech. Sweep those and the thinking is that it will not matter what happens in the CUSA tourney. Just 2-1/5-3 in Q1/2. The best wins are the sweep over North Texas and a win at Florida. The loss at Ole Miss is barely hanging in as a Q2 for now. Other losses were UAB and Middle Tennessee State. Just do not think they can put two more losses on the profile and get an at large. The non conference sos of 302 and the fact that 19 of their 24 wins are coming from Q3/4 demand no more slip ups before CUSA tourney time.
1O SEEDS
- (30) NEVADA 21-7: With no more Q1 or 2 opportunities until the Mountain West tournament, the Wolfpack's placement continues to vacillate based on what the power conference bubble schools around them do. Thinking is they are a tick ahead of fellow bubble Boise in the pecking order due to their win over San Diego State. They did split with Boise, swept New Mexico and split with bubble out Utah State. 3-5 in Q1 and 6-2 in Q2. Yes thats 9-7 overall in those top 2 Quads but wins over Akron, Tulane and San Jose State do not move many needles. Things working their favor is their sos of 56 and solid road mark at 6-6. The Mountain West is rated 5th so they will be getting more than one bid even as the Nevada profile is not overwhelming. Pack need to avoid any bad loss to Wyoming/UNLV to close the year and maybe pick up a MWC tourney win to make it academic.
- (39) MISSISSIPPI STATE 19-10: Tigers may not have been able to pull out the road win at Missouri but they were the rare SEC school to figure out the Aggies of A&M. That win Saturday kept the Tigers in the field as their profile continues to look better and better when stacked up against the rest of the bubble. Up to 4-7 in Q1 and 8-9 in Q2 these numbers beefing up over the past two weeks. Their neutral site OOC win over Marquette is starting to shine bright. Throw in an additional non conference win over TCU, a win at Arkansas, and a win over Missouri and MSU now has 5 wins vs teams projected in the tourney. There is a Q3 loss to Georgia that does ding them so they will want to avoid a slip up over South Carolina but the trip to Vandy in the finale is going to be a tough one. If they sweep both they are in no matter what transpires in the SEC tourney. A split would mean work to do.
- (42) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 22-8: Wolfpack got rocked over the weekend by Clemson. It's not a bad loss on a paper but losing by 25 sent the overall NET number down a bit. The reality is NC State's profile is riding on just two wins vs schools in the field: Miami and Duke. Make no mistakes those are great wins but when you have nothing else, its an issue. 2-5 in Q1 but remember one of those wins was at Va Tech. That mark includes losses to bubble North Carolina and another loss to Clemson. Not good getting swept by the Tigers who have climbed back on the bubble. The Q2 mark shows a win over UNC meaning a split of their series but also a sketchy loss to irrelevant Syracuse. No losses outside of Q2 is a big positive. Yet 10 of their wins are in Q4 seem problematic as is their/ non conference sos of 244. Are the Pack really in danger of missing the field. Just a game at Duke is left. A win there of course locks them in. A loss would not be a bad loss but with such a middling profile, it will be another lost opportunity to shore things up. A first round exit in the ACC tourney and things could get interesting.
- (36) AUBURN 19-10: Been sniffing out the Tigers spiral for weeks now. Losers of 7 of their last 10, Auburn has now landed on the last 8 line. No shame in losing at surging Kentucky, losing by 32 though is another issue. The best thing they had going for them was their solid overall net in the top 30 but now that is gone. Auburn is a paltry 2-8 now in Q1 which includes their best wins of the year over Arkansas and a neutral site win over Northwestern. Q2 is better at 6-1 but only the wins over Mississippi State and Missouri move the needle. The SOS works for them at 36/77 but their resume is screaming for a high profile win. Double edged sword to end the season. A trip to Alabama and a home finale with Tennessee provide oodles of opportunity. Yet if the Tigers fall flat on their face in those games, at 19-12 heading into the SEC tourney that is last 4 in territory meaning they will need to do something special there to maintain their spot. See a profile like this slip their way out of the tourney every year from projected 4 seed in January to NIT one seed.
11 SEEDS
- (38) MEMPHIS 22-7: Memphis continues to hang around the good side of the bubble thanks to their non conference wins over Texas A&M and Auburn. Just 2-3 in Q1 but an excellent 7-3 in Q2. There is a sneaky good win over A10 AQ VCU. Tigers continue to successfully navigate the middling waters of the AAC Q2 and Q3 schools. With AAC down overall this year only games with Houston make a real difference. Memphis dropped their first meeting at Houston but get a chance to lock themselves into the tourney with a home season finale vs the Cougars. Short of getting a win there, they will need to take care of a game at SMU and not take a bad loss in the AAC tourney. Not a overwhelming profile but its fairly clean with just that one Q3 loss to Tulane.
- (29) BOISE STATE 21-7: Broncs were riding a really high NET but that loss to San Jose State the other day knocked them back a bit. While it counts as a Q2 loss, its still a bad loss for them given they have 2 Q3 losses to Charlotte and South Dakota State. The win over Texas A&M is where they rest their hat on. Split with Nevada and New Mexico and have a win over Utah State. 9-5 in Q1/2 looks better than it actually is as its mainly wins over mediocrity. Broncs are in luck as their final 2 of San Diego State and at Utah State give them major shots to play their way in. A sweep and they are in no question and might be on the 8/9 line. A split especially if the win is San Diego State likely keeps them in this position but fairly safe. Lose 2 and all bets are off given Utah State profile will be up a couple of notches. Then its off to the MWC tourney to make their case.
- (55) MICHIGAN 17-12: Wolverines saved their season with unlikely 3 to force overtime where they took care of fellow bubble Wisconsin. The overall NET is inching upward and while UM is still only 3-10 in Q1 games, they have pulled their overall Q1/2 record up to 9-11. There are 7 wins now vs teams in the field: at Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan State, Wisconsin and 2x Northwestern and the non conference blowout win over Pitt. These are really good numbers. The issue for them as been overcoming that bulky loss total and at least for now that issue has been solved. However with games at Illinois and Indiana to close the year its evident that they will need to win one of these to remain safely in the field. Lose both and 17-14 and they will need two quality wins in the Big 10 tourney. This is why their lone blemish, the Quad 4 loss to Central Michigan really hurts them. One interesting bubble head to head to note is the 25 point loss to Arizona State. I will say this much they are passing the eye test.
- (72) WISCONSIN 16-12: Badgers almost had a huge road win at Michigan that likely would have been given them breathing space. How much one play can potentially change a season. Some really good wins here though. 6-6 in Q1 and 10-9 Q1/2 are as about as good as you will find on the last 4 in/first four out line. Their win at Marquette the biggest yet there are 5 other wins vs tourney projected teams: Maryland, Iowa 2x and bubbles USC/Michigan, The sweep of Penn State could be an ace in the hole. The win loss mark of 16-12 now becomes the issue as a split of the last 2 is mandatory. Doable yet can we expect the Badgers even at home to take down Purdue? That would mean a ton of pressure to win at Minnesota. Beyond that, do not see Wisky getting in at 17-14 so they would have to get a Big 10 tourney win and there still is the possibility they are playing on the first day which actually would help them.
- (45) USC 21-8: The Trojans spot here is going to change significantly given their next two opponents. Where is the question? Despite a feather in their cap win over UCLA, there is not a lot of depth here. Beyond that is a win over Auburn and bubblicious Arizona State. Its still just 2 wins vs tourney teams. The metrics look good on paper though 4-5 Q1, 10-6 in Q2. Speaks to how poorly the Pac 12 is in reality. To their credit the Trojans feasted on Pac 12 mediocrity. Looking further in there are two hideous losses: one at Q3 Oregon State and the other at home to Florida Gulf Coast in Quad 4. USC can punch their ticket with a win over Arizona this week which would give them two wins of projected 2 seeds. If they fail then the home battle with Arizona State could be a de facto play in/play out game for the NCAA tournament. Lose both and they will likely need to reach the Pac 12 tourney finals to get back in.
- (26) WEST VIRGINIA 16-13: Mountaineers are teetering now as they sit just 3 games above 500. History has shown that teams just 2 games above 500 do not make the NCAA tourney and that has been tested a few times lately from the Big 12. Whether it is the greatest conference season ever will not matter. WVU does not even have the upper tier wins to justify an inclusion with a bulky loss total. A woeful 4-12 in Q1, 9-13 in Q1/2 and a concerning 10-13. You almost have to be within a game or so of 500 in those first 3 Quads and WVU isnt. The wins in league are Iowa State and TCU both at home. The strength may be key non conference road wins over Pitt and at Auburn and note that road win because the Mountaineers are an awful 2-8 on the road. No bad loss here, the worst being Texas Tech but just how do you overcome all the losses which show by and large they do not win very much against top competition and they certainly have played top competition with their SOS a sparkling 5. Last 2 are at Iowa State and home to Kansas State. Win both and they are stone cold locks and above the play in games. Split and they take a wobbly 17-14 mark into the Big 12 where a first round win is mandatory and even then there might be some question. Could the Big 12 really only get 6 this year?
TWELVE SEEDS
- (44) ORAL ROBERTS* 23-4: Projected AQ from Summit League. Golden Eagles were able to survive a scare at South Dakota State to conclude a perfect 18-0 season in the Summit League. Their at large chances are debatable. Not as good as Florida Atlantic metrics wise. 0-4 in Q1 but let's consider who they lost to: St Mary's, Houston, Utah State and New Mexico all on the road. Eagles at least showed they were will to schedule tough and that is reflected in the SOS OOC of 6. That may be the key to their at large hopes. Best win is Liberty who may or may not be the AQ from the ASun but that is still a solid win. Yet when 17 of your wins are coming from Quad 4 and 22 of 23 from Q3/4, there better be a sense of urgency for the Eagles to at least make the Summit tourney finals.
- VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH*
- BRADLEY*
- SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI*
THIRTEEN SEEDS
- TOLEDO*
- UTAH VALLEY STATE*
- IONA*
- HOFSTRA*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
- YALE*
- UC IRVINE*
- FURMAN*
- COLGATE*
FIFTHTEEN SEEDS
- EASTERN WASHINGTON*
- VERMONT*
- KENNESAW STATE*
- YOUNGSTOWN STATE*
SIXTEEN SEEDS
- TEXAS CORPUS CHRISTI*
- UNC ASHEVILLE*
- MOREHEAD STATE*
- HOWARD*
- FDU*
- ALCORN STATE*
BUBBLE OUT
- (61) ARIZONA STATE 20-9: If you did not see the ASU shot to beat Arizona in an impossible spot, I suggest you seek it out. That shot gave buoyancy to the Sun Devils resume allowing them to ascend right smack on top of the Mendoza line. Before that all they were clinging to was a neutral site win over Creighton and a looking better each day win over Michigan. Its one thing to beat a projected 2 seed like Arizona, but wins like that on the road do not come often around the last 4 in/first four out line. Now ASU is at least in position to make their case. 4-3 vs Q1 and 9-8 in Q2 remember its a lot of the mediocrity from the Pac 12 here so proceed with caution. There is a split with bubble Oregon, losses to the likes of Washington and San Fransisco. Devils have to be rueing that Q4 loss to 312 Texas Southern. Their case is simply going to be determined in their closing two games. On the road at UCLA and USC. They already dropped one vs USC so if the Devils cannot pull off a win at UCLA to punch in, that USC game is basically a play in game for the Devils that could knock the Trojans out. If they lose both, ASU must have a strong Pac 12 tourney to be under consideration
- (46) OKLAHOMA STATE 16-13: Cowboys had a rough week going from above the last 4 in to first four out. That makes 4 losses in a row and now just 3 games above 500, the overall loss total is becoming a drag. 5-10 in Q1 and 8-12 in Q2. Unlike WVU, OSU does not have any wins of note OOC. Their biggest 2 wins over Iowa State are looking less impressive as the Cyclones continue to gather losses. In addition to the split with WVU , their 4th win vs team in field was TCU. There is a Q3 loss to Southern Illinois that is so costly for breathing space with the overall record. Two games left vs Baylor tonight and at distant bubble Texas Tech in the finale. Obviously a win tonight vs Baylor would give them that missing marquee win to their resume but again its tricky with that overall mark making sure they are at least 3 games above 500 so a win vs Tech would also be needed. If they lose to the Bears, Tech is a MUST win to even stay alive heading into the Big 12 tourney where they would need another win to pad the total.
- (47) NORTH CAROLINA 18-11: Tar Heels did what they had to last week avoiding a hideous loss at Notre Dame and then getting their first upper tier Q1 win of the season. Actually there first Q1 at all now pushing that mark to 1-8. The Q2 is 6-3 but that only pushes their mark to 7-11, a bit sketchy for a power 6 conference school. There is a win over North Carolina State, Michigan and a bit deeper a win over Charleston.. Despite playing a strong OOC schedule rated 18th, the Tar Heels failed to capture a Q1 win in any of those games. Still there are no bad losses here and the Heels profile actually is looking as a nice alternative vs other bloated power conference schools. Remember Notre Dame got in the field with just 2 Q1 wins and have to think even just a win over Duke in the season finale might be enough to push them in. Fail to get that and they will have to get to the ACC tourney semis which is no easy task given they will be a 7 or 8 seed.
- (59) PENN STATE 17-12: NittIny Lions blew a chance to move into the field with a costly meltdown against Rutgers blown a 19 point 2nd half lead. The loss leaves PSU at just 3-7 in Q1 and 7-12 in Q1/2. A one game swing can make a huge difference at this part of the bubble. The Lions do have some good stuff here. 6 wins vs the field including Furman: 2x Illinois, Iowa, Indiana and Michigan. Like some other schools, its the bulky loss total becoming an issue and Lions 279 non conference sos will not inspire confidence in them at 18-14. Lions likely need two more Q1 wins regular season and conference tourney combined. Next up is a trip to Northwestern. PSU did win at Illinois but at 3-7 their road woes remain an issue. After that is a home game vs red hot Maryland. Either game is Q1 but they might need both of these. A split and they might be playing first day and a win there would not move the needle so they would have to get a win in the 2nd round.
- (60) CLEMSON 21-8: The loss at Louisville did not kill the Tigers after all. Clemson followed up their 20 point win over Syracuse by dropping a 25 point road victory at North Carolina State. Their NET rose from the unmanageable 80s all the way to 60. Yet the facts remain the same on this bizarre profile. Clemson is 13-5 in the ACC just one game out of first. They have 4 Q1 wins and are 7-6 in Q1/2. Big time wins over Duke, Nc State 2x, Pitt and a nice one to have over Penn State. The issue remains 2 Q4 to Louisville and Loyola, and 2 Q3s BC and South Carolina the latter of which is very close to being a 3rd Q4 loss. They finish at Virginia and home to Notre Dame and if they need both and if they get both they will move right up to the cutline with the ACC tourney giving them a chance to vault in. Lose either and they will need a ACC tourney final run.
- (31) UTAH STATE 21-7: Aggies have been moving up and down and all around being at the mercy of the bubble schools around them. Yet quietly their profile is starting to take on some flesh. For starters their biggest win of the season Nevada has now snuck into Quad 1 putting them 1-4 there. The 5-1 mark in Q2 now includes 2 AQs: Oral Roberts and Bradley. Their whopping 12 Q3 wins continues to elevate the profiles. Always a good thing when 18 of your 21 wins are non Q4. Two negatives dot the resume though, the Q3 to SMU (perilously close to Q4) and the Q4 to Weber State. Aggies would be a shoo in even if they did not have one of those. Perception is they still are behind the other two MWC bubbles but opportunity awaits. USU will need to avoid the landmine at UNLV and get it done at home vs Boise in the finale. Win those and they are in heading into the MWC tourney where they might need another to stay in. Split and it may take a run to the finals to get in.
- (51) CHARLESTON 27-3: Cougars had ascended to the next team out last week but the sad reality is they are just a pawn in the space of the soft bubble underbelly. Without a chance to gain Q1s or 2, Charleston is hoping to rely on their sheer win total to get them in. They did tie Hofstra for the CAA title but the top seed went to the Dutchmen because of their win over Charleston. Might just be one loss to many and that is a shame. The schedule does them in at 338/297 and the fact their biggest game of the season was a loss at UNC a team they are directly competing against for a bid. Their Quad 2 wins over Kent State and Va Tech are nice enough but not the type that put you into the tournament. As the 2 seed in the CAA they will be favorites anyhow so that is their best path. At 29-4 though with a loss in the finals to Hofstra, they will get a look but not confident in their chances to steal a bid from a bloated frog
- (48) NEW MEXICO 19-9: Lobos came within seconds of pulling out a huge home win over MWC AQ San Diego State but got beat at the buzzer and it looks like their realistic hopes of getting an at large bid was popped. New Mexico has lost 6 of 7 including dropping those last 2 Q1 opportunities last week. Plus they are now a ghastly 7-9 in the Mountain West and while conference record is not looked at, let's be realistic here. There was some great stuff here earlier. They won at St Mary's and at San Diego State. 3-5 in Q1 and 6-5 in Q2 isnt all that bad. These include additional wins vs teams in the field such as Boise State and two AQs Oral Roberts and Iona. These 5 wins combined are actually better than any Mountain West bubble. The issue is the losses...4 of them in Q3 and 4. The Q4 at home to Wyoming the backbreaker but the Q3s are bad enough with losses to UNLV, Air Force and Freson State. Just a bridge too far and there are better options even amongst a motley crew on the bubble.
- (54) TEXAS TECH 16-13: Red Raiders' were trying to thread such a small needle the past few weeks. Four straight wins were putting them in position and they came from way back down at TCU but fell short. Certainly not a bad loss, its just that they couldn't afford any losses. Now down to 5-11 in Q1, 5-13 in Q1/2 and 7-13 in Q1/2/3, those numbers are not going to work for a bid. Just too much to overcome. There are some solid wins here: Texas, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia. I suppose if they win at Kansas tomorrow....but honestly is anyone expecting that. If they do that and beat Oklahoma State they still would be only 7-13 in Q2 and 9-13 in Q1/2/3. They would need two additional Q1 wins in the Big 12 tourney. If you thought their needle was small going into last weekend, better go take out your magnifying glass out tonight and while you are at it avoid looking at the 327 non conference sos
- (52) OREGON 16-13: It's not whack a mole, its whack a duck. As hard as we try to rid ourselves of these filthy birds they come back to the bubble pond. If Arizona State is going to get play for their win over Arizona, shouldn't the Ducks. Yes the Ducks win was at home not on the road but note they also have wins over Nevada and USC in their only meeting. Their quad marks might be more smoke and mirrors than actual quality at 4-8 in Q1 and 9-11 in Q1/2. Like some other profiles that is a lot of mediocrity in Q2 both wins and losses. Losing to likes of Stanford and Washington are not good on any profile. There are two Q3 losses that ultimately are the difference makers in the won/loss mark yet those losses are to AQs schools Utah Valley State and UC Irvine. The SOS stuff at 21/31 and NET of 53 is keeping them in play but there are now quality win opportunities left (Stanford/California) and the Ducks seem so far back of the rest of the pack as it is. Win out and get to the Pac 12 finals and then we can reassess.
LAST 4 BYES: BOISE STATE, MEMPHIS, AUBURN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE
LAST 4 IN: WEST VIRGINA, USC, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN
FIRST 4 OUT: ARIZONA STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, PENN STATE
NEXT 4 OUT: CLEMSON, UTAH STATE, CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO
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