BACATOLOGY: 3/3 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE****RUTGERS PROJECTED 10 SEED****

[bac2therac]

Not a full update but here is where we stand going into the weekend. There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. Note Pitt is projected as an AQ currently but are an absolute bubble school. Everyone is locked into down to the 2nd 9 seed. There are 12 spots open and about 22 schools still competing.


ONE SEEDS

• ALABAMA*
• KANSAS*
• HOUSTON*
• PURDUE*

TWO SEEDS

• UCLA*
• BAYLOR
• ARIZONA
• TEXAS

THREE SEEDS

• MARQUETTE*
• KANSAS STATE
• GONZAGA*
• TENNESSEE

FOUR SEEDS

• CONNECTICUT
• INDIANA
• XAVIER
• VIRGINIA

FIVE SEEDS

• TCU
• SAINT MARY'S
• MIAMI
• CREIGHTON

SIX SEEDS

• SAN DIEGO STATE*
• IOWA
• NORTHWESTERN
• MICHIGAN STATE

7 SEEDS

• IOWA STATE
• ILLINOIS
• DUKE
• KENTUCKY

8 SEEDS

• MISSOURI
• TEXAS A & M
• ARKANSAS
• MARYLAND

9 SEEDS

• PROVIDENCE
• FLORIDA ATLANTIC*
• BOISE STATE
• MEMPHIS

10 SEEDS

• WEST VIRGINIA
• RUTGERS
• AUBURN
• MISSISSIPPI STATE

11 SEEDS

• PITTSBURGH*
• NEVADA
• NORTH CAROLINA STATE
• USC
• WISCONSIN
• PENN STATE

TWELVE SEEDS

• ORAL ROBERTS*
• VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH*
• BRADLEY*
• SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI*

THIRTEEN SEEDS

• TOLEDO*
• UTAH VALLEY STATE*
• IONA*
• HOFSTRA*

FOURTEEN SEEDS

• YALE*
• UC IRVINE*
• FURMAN*
• COLGATE*

FIFTHTEEN SEEDS

• EASTERN WASHINGTON*
• VERMONT*
• KENNESAW STATE*
• YOUNGSTOWN STATE*

SIXTEEN SEEDS

• TEXAS CORPUS CHRISTI*
• UNC ASHEVILLE*
• MOREHEAD STATE*
• HOWARD*
• FDU*
• ALCORN STATE*

SOUTH REGION – Louisville		MIDWEST REGION – Kansas City
Birmingham		Birmingham
1) Alabama		1) Houston
16) Alcorn State-FDU		16) Texas A&M Corpus Christi
8) Maryland		8) Arkansas
9) Providence		9) Boise State
Orlando		Orlando
5) TCU		5) Creighton
12) VCU		12) Southern Mississippi
4) Virginia		4) Indiana
13) Toledo		13) Utah Valley State
Greensboro		Greensboro
6) Michigan State		6) San Diego State
11) Pittsburgh		11) Wisconsin-North Carolina St
3) Tennessee		3) Kansas State
14) Furman		14) Colgate
Des Moines		Denver
7) Kentucky		7) Illinois
10) West Virginia		10) Auburn
2) Baylor		2) Texas
15) Kennesaw State		15) Vermont
WEST REGION – Las Vegas		EAST REGION – New York
Des Moines		Columbus
1) Kansas		1) Purdue
16) UNC Asheville		16) Howard-Morehead State
8) Texas A&M		8) Missouri
9) Florida Atlantic		9) Memphis
Albany		Albany
5) St Mary's		5) Miami
12) Oral Roberts		12) Bradley
4) Xavier		4) Connecticut
13) Iona		13) Hofstra
Sacramento		Columbus
6) San Diego State		6) Iowa
11) USC-Penn State		11) Nevada
3) Gonzaga		3) Marquette
14) UC Irvine		14) Yale
Denver		Sacramento
7) Duke		7) Iowa State
10) Rutgers		10) Mississippi State
2) Arizona		2) UCLA
15) Eastern Washington		15) Youngstown State

LAST 4 BYES: NEVADA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, AUBURN, RUTGERS
LAST 4 IN: PENN STATE, WISCONSIN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, USC

FIRST 4 OUT: MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH STATE
NEXT 6 OUT: CHARLESTON, OREGON, NEW MEXICO, VANDERBILT, CLEMSON, OKLAHOMA STATE

 

[Plum Street]

Sign me up!!

Northwestern win and we are in regardless of conference tournament.
A northwestern loss and we need 2 more .
1 might us get to Dayton if things broke absolutely right. I don’t think the conference tournaments are weighted as heavily as some like to think.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

all things equal (which we know parts are moving)

RU goes 1-1 we probably have a bye
RU goes 1-2 we probably are in Dayton
RU goes 0-2 we probably have a home NIT game

Is this fair?

 

[LeapinLou]

Bac - Just chiming in to thank you for this update. I am trying to avoid reading any of the board today. I'm sure there is no fun in it.
I feel like we can beat Northwestern on Sunday and save the season. No doubt I'll be squirming in my chair for 40 minutes.

 

[bac2therac]

Boise State and Memphis are not locks but they are a couple notches ahead of the the last 4 bye grouping. Look extremely likely

WVU appears a notch above the last 4 byes...still not totally safe though

The grouping of Nevada, Mississippi State, Auburn, Rutgers is very very tight..throw Pitt in that as an at large, difficult to separate, could be 10s or 11s depending on perspective.

The last 4 in grouping are not far behind the last 4 byes, it will not take much to pass some of these. Some big games coming up for 3 of those schools.

Michigan barely left out in favor of Penn State and Wisconsin. Extremely hard to separate these 3 profiles. This weekend and Big 10 tourney will go along way and of course include Rutgers in that

Rutgers needs to beat Northwestern or they are in serious trouble, desperately needing a Big 10 tourney Quad 1 win. I think a 18-14 RU has a less than 50/50 chance to make it...although I am not saying they cannot make it at that mark.

Nothing happens in a vacuum, RU will not be a stone cold lock if they beat Northwestern because of the fact there are 3 Big 10 bubbles and the tourney is opportunity for schools to play their way in and possibly over Rutgers. Its not that Big 10 schools will be compared to each other as being from the same conference, they are being compared to each other in groupings of bubble schools.

RU would have been my third 8 seed if they won last night.

4 Quad 3 losses are disastrous. The good thing is that 2 of them are high end on paper...Seton Hall and Nebraska are not horrible losses. Temple is also not a horrible loss. Minnesota is and everyone knows it. It might as well be a Quad 4 loss.

Rutgers has put themselves in a situation where they have given the committee reasons to not put them in the tourney. Everyone should be okay with that. Rutgers has warts. Their non conference sos of 312 is embarrassing. They do not have a quality OOC win and no a win over Wake does not matter. If Rutgers does not make so be it. It would not be a snub. The committee can feel there are cleaner profiles

The committee loves quality wins more than bad losses and they especially covet quality road wins. We need Purdue to finish strong and hope that win puts us over the top

 

[Plum Street]

all things equal (which we know parts are moving)

RU goes 1-1 we probably have a bye
RU goes 1-2 we probably are in Dayton
RU goes 0-2 we probably have a home NIT game

Is this fair?

Under your scenarios we basically get 2 shots to get in . Beat northwestern and in. Lose to northwestern and win tournament game and in Dayton . If we can’t do either, we don’t deserve to be in the field

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

These developments now put all 8 locations in play. Not with equal chances though.

 

[bac2therac]

all things equal (which we know parts are moving)

RU goes 1-1 we probably have a bye
RU goes 1-2 we probably are in Dayton
RU goes 0-2 we probably have a home NIT game

Is this fair?

getting selected for the tourney and getting seeded are two different things so its hard to say about the Dayton seeding. Obviously if we get in we will DEFINITELY be dinged for those 4 losses and yes our resume is very deserving of Dayton. 3 other Big 10 bubbles though so its hard to know.

 

[RU#1fan]

Need to win one game and we are in.
Losing 3 in a row and 7 out of 9 games will send us right to the NIT

 

[bac2therac]

if North Carolina beats Duke tomorrow, they are locking in. I know they will be still technically on the bubble but its a clean profile with no bad losses and strong sos and they will have wins vs Duke, Virginia, Michigan, NC State and Charleston. Do not be surprised if they get in even with a loss if they win a game or two in the ACC tourney, as I said its a clean profile and there still are some good wins there.

 

[AshCatchEm]

Need to win one game and we are in.
Losing 3 in a row and 7 out of 9 games will send us right to the NIT

Maybe if we beat minny but I don't think that's a given now. That's a bad loss we added last night

 

[patk89]

Who would have thought a few years ago that we would be upset that we are on the bubble? Not necessarily fair given how things were looking a month ago, but reality. We have come a very long way. Last night absolutely sucked. But hang in there.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Under your scenarios we basically get 2 shots to get in . Beat northwestern and in. Lose to northwestern and win tournament game and in Dayton . If we can’t do either, we don’t deserve to be in the field

I am not a bracketologist, but this is the way I feel.

I am sure someone with time on their hands can come up with probabilities looking at the entire bubble and who and how they could play. It is feasible that entire bubble goes RutgersMinny. It is defintely time now to root against bid stealers, but I don't think there are many. Also major conferences with 4 and 5 rounds I don't see a Nebraska or Villanopva getting hot and taking a spot away.

 

[friar10]

Under your scenarios we basically get 2 shots to get in . Beat northwestern and in. Lose to northwestern and win tournament game and in Dayton . If we can’t do either, we don’t deserve to be in the field

Listened to a podcast with Kevin McNamara sportswriter for the providence journal. Him and other sportswriters sat in with committee a few years ago and said all the teams were picked the Friday before selection Sunday. Just a little movement happens when there are bid stealers and such. Said the conference tournaments had very little bearing on the tournament other then the bid stealers being inserted and moving some seeds around to accommodate them.

 

[bac2therac]

Listened to a podcast with Kevin McNamara sportswriter for the providence journal. Him and other sportswriters sat in with committee a few years ago and said all the teams were picked the Friday before selection Sunday. Just a little movement happens when there are bid stealers and such. Said the conference tournaments had very little bearing on the tournament other then the bid stealers being inserted and moving some seeds around to accommodate them.

this is true and we saw this last year...however the early rounds do matter on the bubble especially when you have 4 bubble schools from one conference. In this case it will really matter. Where it wont matter is for schools like Villanova or Vanderbilt or Texas Tech or New Mexico, they likely have to far to come

 

[Scangg]

I am not a bracketologist, but this is the way I feel.

I am sure someone with time on their hands can come up with probabilities looking at the entire bubble and who and how they could play. It is feasible that entire bubble goes RutgersMinny. It is defintely time now to root against bid stealers, but I don't think there are many. Also major conferences with 4 and 5 rounds I don't see a Nebraska or Villanopva getting hot and taking a spot away.

Nebraska is in the morgue

 

[bac2therac]

I am not a bracketologist, but this is the way I feel.

I am sure someone with time on their hands can come up with probabilities looking at the entire bubble and who and how they could play. It is feasible that entire bubble goes RutgersMinny. It is defintely time now to root against bid stealers, but I don't think there are many. Also major conferences with 4 and 5 rounds I don't see a Nebraska or Villanopva getting hot and taking a spot away.

Florida Atlantic will get a bid regardless of CUSA tourney

Oral Roberts and Charleston will receive strong consideration and quite frankly I would take them both over RU or any of the 3 Big 10 bubbles.

Clemson needs to be watched in the ACC

Ditto for Texas Tech in the Big 12

Oregon in the Pac 12

An upstart in the AAC

Villanova in the Big East

Vandy in the SEC though that could knock out a SEC bubble.

Nebraska is not winning the Big 10 tourney I know that.

 

[bac2therac]

Who would have thought a few years ago that we would be upset that we are on the bubble? Not necessarily fair given how things were looking a month ago, but reality. We have come a very long way. Last night absolutely sucked. But hang in there.

being on the bubble 4 years in a row isnt a good feeling.

 

[RU23]

You and Wachtel seem more aligned than year’s past. He has us 8th team in. He likes USC more than you and you guys swapped PSU and ASU

 

[bac2therac]

You and Wachtel seem more aligned than year’s past. He has us 8th team in. He likes USC more than you and you guys swapped PSU and ASU

I just do not see it with USC. They beat UCLA but what else, a win over bubble Auburn but also they lost to Wisconsin. They have a Q4 loss to Florida Gulf Coast and another bad Q3 loss to Oregon State that isnt far from Q4. They beat ASU and they meet them tomorrow and if they do they probably lock in but if not.....

 

[bac2therac]

Rutgers has a very Xavierish profile from last year where the Muskateers went from a 4 seed in January to out the field on Selection Sunday

They were 16-5 and finished 18-13 by losing to Butler in OT in the Big East tourney

5-9 in Q1, 9-11 vs Q1/2, and 13-13 in Q1/2/3...they had only 2 Q3 losses not 4 like RU. They had a way better non conference sos and wins of note there. Although their wins last year were of lesser quality overall than RU's this year

RU is somwhat comparing themselves to last season in a way with the 2 Q3 losses and 1 Q4 loss. Remember RU also lost to Minnesota who was terrible last year but it counted as Q2. Ditto for De Paul. RU really had 4 bad losses last year remember Maryland was a Q3 home loss. However last year RU had 4 super wins in the upper tier of Q1..this year not so much

 

[scarletknight077]

Illinois has 2 q1 wins total so why are they such a lock? Granted the two wins are very solid but being 2-9 q1 isn’t very good. Is a clean resume so much better than having many big wins?

 

[bac2therac]

Illinois has two gigantic wins ooc vs UCLA and Texas...they get a bunch of wins in Q2 as well.....6-7 wins vs teams projected in field

They also have additional wins vs schools projected

Michigan State
Northwestern
Rutgers
Wisconsin 2x

there is also a win over Michigan ....they went 0-2 vs Penn State

Clean profile...no bad loss vs for example Ru having 4 bad losses

non conference sos 120 is solid enough

lock em up, its a question of 7 or 8 for them

Its a better resume than RU because they have better wins. They two top tier wins vs RU just 1. They have no bad losses and non conference sos dwarfs rutgers who played no one and beat no one ooc

 

[Erial_Lion]

WVU appears a notch above the last 4 byes...still not totally safe though

I'm trying to figure out how important West Virginia's home game against Kansas State is tomorrow. If they win, I think they are safe at 18-14 (7-11) with a first round loss against lets say Oklahoma (not the greatest resume though, and should be ready to travel to Dayton).

But, if they lose this game tomorrow...they drop to 17-14 (6-12)...say they beat Texas Tech in the 1st round of the Big 12 tourney...they'd then match up with someone like Kansas. Could their resume take another loss in that game? Would an 18-15 record be enough with their profile?

 

[bac2therac]

I'm trying to figure out how important West Virginia's home game against Kansas State is tomorrow. If they win, I think they are safe at 18-14 (7-11) with a first round loss against lets say Oklahoma (not the greatest resume though, and should be ready to travel to Dayton).

But, if they lose this game tomorrow...they drop to 17-14 (6-12)...say they beat Texas Tech in the 1st round of the Big 12 tourney...they'd then match up with someone like Kansas. Could their resume take another loss in that game? Would an 18-15 record be enough with their profile?

oh yeah if they win tomorrow, its over...locked and loaded.

Your scenerio is interesting. I think with the other two schools dropping off WVU is looking more likely. Their sos numbers are off the charts yet 17-14 is a question mark because normally you have to be 4 games above 500. I dont really like them at 17-15 if they lose to Texas Tech but remember they are going to get compared to the Big 10 bubbles like Penn State..similar type wins but sos goes to Penn State

Penn State's trouble right now is that sos non conference and that their best OOC win is Furman. Rutgers also hurt by that. If RU had the same record with non conference sos of 100 and not 312 it would be much better

 

[Erial_Lion]

I think the interesting scenarios for PSU become if we lose on Sunday against Maryland but make it to Saturday in Chicago (so beating something like Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland, and lose to Iowa), or if we win on Sunday, but lose the opener in Chicago (to someone like Maryland).

Do more than either of those and we're likely in...less and we're clearly out. But those two leave us pretty much where we are today, and right on the cut-line.

 

[bac2therac]

What is psu possibilities for seeding, havent been looking at that...

 

[Erial_Lion]

What is psu possibilities for seeding, havent been looking at that...

Beat Maryland and it's either 9th or 10th (most likely 10th)...lose and it's 11th or 12th (most likely 11th).

An interesting thing I posted on the PSU board (which the 5 other people that follow basketball might have read)...

Playing with the simulator, how about this scenario (with Pomeroy's probabilities of each happening)...

Michigan State beats Ohio State (71%)
Indiana beats Michigan (66%)
Iowa beats Nebraska (81%)
Wisconsin/Minnesota doesn't matter
Penn State beats Maryland (51%)
Purdue beats Illinois (79%)

Crazy thing about how bunched up everything is...should those first 6 games all be won by the favorite, Northwestern will go into the Rutgers game needing a win for the 2 seed, but a loss drops them to the 9 seed.

 

[patk89]

being on the bubble 4 years in a row isnt a good feeling.

Yes and no. We were completely out of even NIT consideration for most of the past 30 years.

 

[bac2therac]

Beat Maryland and it's either 9th or 10th (most likely 10th)...lose and it's 11th or 12th (most likely 11th).

An interesting thing I posted on the PSU board (which the 5 other people that follow basketball might have read)...

Playing with the simulator, how about this scenario (with Pomeroy's probabilities of each happening)...

Michigan State beats Ohio State (71%)
Indiana beats Michigan (66%)
Iowa beats Nebraska (81%)
Wisconsin/Minnesota doesn't matter
Penn State beats Maryland (51%)
Purdue beats Illinois (79%)

Crazy thing about how bunched up everything is...should those first 6 games all be won by the favorite, Northwestern will go into the Rutgers game needing a win for the 2 seed, but a loss drops them to the 9 seed.

would really want to avoid 12th..i guess that happens if PSU loses and Nebraska wins? Dont want to be playing Ohio State in that first round. Minnesota certainly isnt good but they could be playing loose for that game.

 

[Erial_Lion]

would really want to avoid 12th..i guess that happens if PSU loses and Nebraska wins? Dont want to be playing Ohio State in that first round. Minnesota certainly isnt good but they could be playing loose for that game.

Yea, that's a PSU loss combined with a Nebraska winning at Iowa and Wisconsin winning at Minnesota.

Playing Ohio St would give another Quad 1 win...but the risk isn't worth the reward in the grand scheme. Playing Minnesota has no reward whatsoever, so really want to avoid that one.

 

[Salvi's Headband]

Do we dare have some NIT Bracketology? Just in case.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

There's a lot of flip flopping on the resume for RU and nothing has changed since last Friday.....we added another quality win with a bad loss. If the loss was PSU and the win was Minnesota, people would get even more bent out of shape because PSU would potentially be ahead of RU.

RU is making the NCAAs, said so last year after Indiana and saying so this year after PSU, Wisconsin, NW and Purdue all on the road.

There are bid stealers, but I have RU as a 10 seed win or lose on Sunday night and I don't see RU moving past a 10/high 11 line, based on 2 more Q1/Q2 games vs NW, potentially NW a 3rd time in Chicago etc.

Enjoy the weekend of CBB games folks.....!!

 

[RU#1fan]

being on the bubble 4 years in a row isnt a good feeling.

Certainly not with the talent we had last year.
Underperforming is not a good thing.

 

[King of S]

Charleston in if they lose in their conference final?

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

For those 22 for 12 spots, don’t we have the most wins against the projected field With 8. That has to mean a lot.

md
wisc
PSU x 2
nw
purdue
indiana
msu

 

[bac2therac]

Charleston in if they lose in their conference final?

Most likely not but they are an option.

Root hard for them to win

 

[bac2therac]

We didnt beat Illinois

Yes with psu barely in it helps...its 8

But it could easily be 5

It helps RU is 3-1 vs Wisky/Mich/PSU

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

We didnt beat Illinois

Yes with psu barely in it helps...its 8

But it could easily be 5

It helps RU is 3-1 vs Wisky/Mich/PSU

How does 5 or 8 compare with the bubble teams? Low middle or high

 

[RU848789]

Sign me up!!

Northwestern win and we are in regardless of conference tournament.
A northwestern loss and we need 2 more .
1 might us get to Dayton if things broke absolutely right. I don’t think the conference tournaments are weighted as heavily as some like to think.

No, a NW loss and we need 1 more (and still make Dayton even if we don't get that, IMO).