It's here!!!
Okay everyone grab a cup of java and come on in. Always want to hear suggestions and comments and looking forward to take questions during the day Wednesday. Note data is through Monday's game. Does not include Tuesday's results (except noted for St John's)
Note, the Ivy League is not competing this year. Bellarmine is not eligible for the NCAA tournament. Arizona is not eligible for the NCAA tournament
There are several schools dealing with Covid and the impact of how the NCAA weighs that issue is unknown. It is a very unusual year. What we once knew about the selection process might not be the same this season
You will love where Rutgers sits, lemme say that again, you will love the position where Rutgers sits right now.
Bare or bear with any typos, if you see them or any major errors, point them out, it takes alot of time to produce this and quite frankly proofreading isn't my strength🙂
Let's start this by identifying the one bid conferences and the schools that are projected to receive an automatic bid. There are 22 conferences that I project as one bid leagues
UMBC AmerEast
HOUSTON American
LIBERTY Atl Sun
SAINT BONAVENTURE A 10
EASTERN WASHINGTON Big Sky
WINTHROP Big South
CAL SANTA BARBARA Big West
NORTHEASTERN CAA
UAB CUSA
CLEVELAND STATE Horizon
SIENA MAAC
TOLEDO MAC
MORGAN STATE MEAC
LONG ISLAND NEC
BELMONT OVC
NAVY Patriot
WOFFORD Southern
ABILENE CHRISTIAN Southland
PRAIRIE VIEW SWAC
SO DAKOTA Summit
TEXAS STATE Sun Belt
GRAND CANYON WAC
Here are who I think are locks and their projected seedings as of today. There are 9 multi bid conferences. There are 37 at large bids and I have locked in 11 at large bids. I made the locks all the way down to the 5 line with the last 5 still not a lock yet These schools who have to have a historic collapse to not make the NCAA tournament. There are 26 at large bids available and at this time I have identified 37 schools competing for them.
1: GONZAGA (WCC), BAYLOR (BIG 12), OHIO STATE, MICHIGAN (BIG 10)
2: ILLINOIS, ALABAMA (SEC), VIRGINIA (ACC), VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
3: HOUSTON (AAC), TEXAS TECH, TENNESSEE, OKLAHOMA
4: IOWA, TEXAS, WEST VIRGINIA, MISSOURI
5: KANSAS, WISCONSIN, USC (PAC 12), ?
Here is the pecking order....
LAST 5 SEED
1. (24) PURDUE 13-7: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 5-0, road 3-5, SOS 32
Boilermakers look good to go. A whopping 9 Q1 and Q2 wins combined dwarfs anyone on the bubble list. They have a pair of wins over projected one seed Ohio State and those wins just overflow their cup. Wins over Indiana, Minnesota, and Liberty beef up the resume. Their only negative was a Q3 loss at Miami. Let us say one more win just for good measure
6 SEEDS
2. (26) RUTGERS 11-6: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 3-1, road 3-3, SOS 18
Scarlet Knights rode the seesaw from nearly breaking into the top 10 to a hideous 5 game losing streak that left them reeling. Yet now after 4 straight wins Rutgers has bolstered their resume and are very close to locking in their first NCAA appearance since 1991. Solid Q1 and 2 numbers highlighted by a golden ticket win over Illinois. The win over Purdue looks better each day. Wins at Indiana and Minnesota are two more vs NCAA likely schools. The big issue last year of road wins has been put to bed with 3 road wins already. The SOS of 18 is sparkling. OOC their best win is vs bubble Syracuse but in a crazy year like this, it will do. Knights. A win at Iowa tomorrow will be enough to punch their ticket otherwise just taking care of business vs some lower level Big 10 schools will do the trick. This team will dance, its the seeding implications that you should pay attention to.
3. (35) VIRGINIA TECH 14-4: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-4, road 3-3, SOS 73
With quality wins hard to come by in the mediocre ACC, the Hokies have a real good win with their win over projected 2 seed Virginia. Then add in an important neutral site win over another projected 2 seed in Villanova and you have a making of a nice resume. There is a win over Clemson amidst losses to bubbles Penn State, Syracuse and Pitt but the Hokies have no bad losses and the schedule strength is decent enough. Their game tonight with FSU was postponed but they will get another opportunity vs the Seminoles as well as other quality win opportunties vs Louisville and UNC. For them its more a case of just taking care of business in the games they should win.
4. (23) FLORIDA STATE 10-3: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 4-0, road 1-2, SOS 39
Seminoles had been rolling along until they were upset by Ga Tech and then knocked out by Covid. FSU has had their last 3 postponed but are set to return this weekend vs Wake Forest. Opportunities for quality wins vs Virginia and Va Tech loom right after that. No word on makeup dates for their postponements. Solid enough resume with two elusive OOC wins vs Florida and Indiana. Plus ACC wins over projected tourney schools Clemson, Louisville, and UNC. A Q3 loss to UCF is their only real blemish. Always treat schools coming off a Covid pause with some trepidation. FSU would seem in good shape with a couple of wins going forward.
5. (41) OKLAHOMA STATE 12-6: Q1: 4-4, Q2: 2-1, road 6-3, SOS 38
Cowboys benefitting from a strong Big 12 profile even as their conference mark as dipped under 500. Pay no attention to that, the wins are here highlighted by a road win at Texas Tech. Throw in wins over Texas and Kansas and a nice non conference win over Arkansas. The only real negative is getting swept by Big 12 also ran TCU but only one of those counts as a Q3. The SOS is solid and the whopping 6 road wins are impressive. Cowboys should be okay as long as they take care of the dregs coming up of Kansas St and Iowa State. Their final 4 of at Baylor, Texas Tech and Oklahoma 2x might be the toughest finish to a schedule in the country.
7 SEEDS
6. (32) CREIGHTON 14-5: Q1: 3-1, Q2: 6-1, 3 Q3 losses, road 6-2, SOS 162, NCSOS 311
Bluejays impressive 9-2 mark vs Q1 and 2 schools does not have a standout but the sheer number of solid wins is hard to dispute. Sweeps of Seton Hall, UConn and St Johns...all bubble schools but all projected tourney schools. Add in a win over Xavier and that is 7 wins vs NCAA projected schools. The issue for them is they have 3 very questionable Q3 losses at home to medicority in Marquette, Georgetown, and Providence. While the good outweighs the bad you can add in the terrible non conference mark of 311 which sees them just 5-3 vs Q3/4. Just need to be careful, with those wins vs bubble IN schools for now, those schools could easily fall out. There is a tricky stretch ahead at Gtown/Nova before another tricky stretch at Nova and at Xavier later in the year. Will need to watch.
7. (27) FLORIDA 10-5: Q1; 2-3, Q2: 4-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-3, SOS 76
Gators are another victim of Covid, now on a pause with 2 games postponed and their weekend game vs Texas A&M in doubt. Those were two Q1 games in LSU/Tenn that UF misses out on so for them they can hope they get rescheduled. Further down the road only at Arkansas and Missouri are games that fortify the resume. Still Covid cannot steal the good on their resume which are highlighted by a 26 point drubbing of Tennessee and a huge road win at West Virginia. Otherwise a win over projected in but bubble LSU and two Q3 losses to Kentucky and South Carolina are the things to look at. Again another school that can overcome Covid by just taking care of business in the games they should.
8. (15) COLORADO 15-5: Q1: 1-3, Q2: 5-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-4, SOS 81
Much like last year, the Buffaloes have a better overall NET than their resume would suggest. Just one Q1 win yet a good win over Pac 12 leading USC on the road. Beyond that are 3 nice wins at home over Arizona (ineligible) and bubbles Stanford and Oregon. The Buffs seem to have a good amount of separation from those Pac 12 bubbles even with that pair of bad losses to Utah and Washington. And if you go deep there are sneaky good minor wins over projected conference winners in Grand Canyon and South Dakota. A rough 4 game road trip to the Cal and Oregon schools await that could either lock up their bid or move them closer to the bubble and with USC/UCLA to finish the year, they might want to become road warriors.
9. (46) CLEMSON 12-5: Q1: 3-5, Q2: 5-0, road 1-4, SOS 10
Tigers have an interesting profile. Solid in league wins over Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina and two strong out of conference neutral site wins over Alabama and Purdue. The SOS is an outstanding 10 and 8 Q1 and 2s combined is a strong number. They have not lost a game outside of Q1. So why is their overall NET lagging at 46? Well diving in, we see a 35 point loss to Virginia, a 19 point loss at FSU, a 18 point loss at Ga Tech and worst of all a 26 point drubbing to weak sauce Duke. The efficiency numbers would seem poor but luckily for them its going to be the wins that the committee will consider the most. With the ACC very middling this year, the final 6 for the Tigers offer no chance for any quality type wins albeit Pitt and Notre Dame may be fringe Q1 opportunities. Another schools that just needs to minimize any slip ups and wins the games they should win.
8 SEEDS
10. (30) BYU 14-5: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 2-2, road 5-2, SOS 26
Tigers did not come close in their attempts to knock off Gonzaga but will gladly take the boost to their SOS which is very strong at 26. Shrewd scheduling paid off in wins over MWC leading Utah State and bubble but projected tourney schools San Diego State and St John's. Only on blemish and that to Pepperdine but its still a Q2 loss for now. Their job is just to hold sway in their final 4 and take care of business. The prototypical 8/9 profile.
11. (51) MINNESOTA 12-7: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 1-1, road 0-6, SOS 22
Gophers overall NET may lag but nothing can take away the fact that they have wins over 2 projected one seeds. Those wins over Michigan and Ohio State both by double digits will give and give some more. That is not even adding in the win over Iowa. Beyond that a win over bubble St Louis is a good one to have in their back pocket. A 25 point blowout of Michigan State may come into play in the future as well. The one big ugly thing is the 0-6 road mark. Its a criteria and remember how it dinged RU last year in the mock brackets. Yet uncertainty to how much emphasis will be placed on road games in such a weird season. It is likely Minny will have to pick up one somewhere or meet the wrath of Jerry Palm. The Gophers cannot rest on their laurels. Pretty simple for them, get a few more wins and they are in. Plenty of opportunities in the Big 10...count em 6 more Q1 games left, they will not have to be 500 in league either.
12. (37) UCLA 13-4: Q1: 2-4, Q2:1-0, road 3-3, SOS 98
Bruins are a legit contenders to win the Pac 12 title yet their profile is less than overwhelming. Pac 12 is not strong yet again, go figure so finding quality in league wins is difficult. UCLA has a win over Colorado and a win over Arizona but that is all. Note losses to bubbles Stanford and San Diego State. Another issue is that 10 of their 13 wins came to Q3 and 4 opponents. Only 2 Q1 opportunites left vs Colorado and USC and a Q2 game with Arizona. Bruins need one of those but also need to avoid annexing any bad losses to the Pac 12 bottom feeder. Could easily slip several rungs.
13. (33) XAVIER 11-2: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-1, road 2-1, SOS 90
The Musketeers are the middle of their 3rd Covid pause and tomorrow's game vs De Paul is a third straight casualty. Xavier has played just 6 conference games in the Big East and you now have to wonder about their future going forward. Despite a gaudy record, just two losses and a very solid NET, the resume is a bit lacking. The win over Oklahoma is nice but after that its just a win over last 4 in St John's. With a reduced schedule now a certaintly each game takes on great meaning which means each loss can start hurting the profile. Too much uncertainty to even know where on this list they might be headed. For now they are in, stay tuned.
9 SEEDS
14. (34) LOUISVILLE 11-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 6-0, road 3-3, SOS 50
Covid has hit Louisville as tomorrow's Pitt game will be the third in a row cancelled and now head coach Chris Mack has tested positive. Uncertainty going forward with their scheduling and they can hope to get some Q1 opportunies vs Virginia, Va Tech, and UNC later in the year. Still the Cards have zero Quad 1 wins and that is a big red flag. Their profile rides solely on 2 good home wins over Virginia Tech and Seton Hall. The ACC is so mired in muck, its hard to give much credit for beating the likes of Pitt and Georgia Tech. With a bad loss to Miami, the Cards have to be careful to get over Covid and fortify this resume.
(13) LOYOLA CHICAGO 15-3 (MISSOURI VALLEY): Q1: 0-1, Q2: 3-2, road 7-2, SOS 208
Projected MVC autobid winner at least for now. The NET is quite extreme given their lack of quality wins and poor SOS. Will be interesting to see where their seeding lies and possibly...or not Drake's. Likely the at large chances for both teams come down to this weekend. both games at Drake. If either sweep they are in very very good shape for an at large while the loser would likely need to win the MVC tourney. I think Loyola can survive a split and stay on the right side of the bubble. Yet their best win is North Texas and not sure a close loss to Richmond and 14 point loss to Wisconsin should be considered plusses. Hard to get around 12 of their 15 wins thus far being from Q3 and 4 but as I said sweep Drake and that changes everything.
15. (48) INDIANA 10-8: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 3-0, road 2-3, SOS 74
Hooisers got a much needed win over Iowa that completed a season sweep of the Hawkeyes. Alot of Q1 games but not alot to show for it. Their other Q1 win was sub 500 Penn State. They have a decent non conference win over bubble Stanford and sub 500 bubble Maryland. There is a bad loss to Northwestern and they would do themselves well to avoid the dreaded letdown tomorrow night against the Cats Clearly IU is going to have had more beef to this resume. Fortunately their Big 10 schedule is littered with them. 4 Q1s remain and maybe more depending on makeups of postponed games. Again do not pay attention to the conference mark if its sub 500. Its not a criteria. Its who you beat plain and simple.
16. (21) SAN DIEGO STATE 13-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 4-1, road 3-2, SOS 27
The plusses here is the great overall NET at 21 and the strong SOS of 27 which goes for OOC as well which is a very impressive 22. Unfortunately they are light on big wins..just UCLA and an in league win over bubble in Colorado State who they split with. They did not help themselves by getting swept by Utah State who now leads the MWC in a crowded 4 school bubble along. This conference will not get 4 so someone by seasons end will be the odd team out. Its likely that the 2 games the Aztecs host vs fading Boise State might be act as an opportunity for a team to cement their bid in or out. Aztecs may have a little more cushion than most, remember no bad losses here
10 SEEDS
17. (45) SETON HALL 11-8: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 3-3. road 6-4, SOS 20
The Pirates are a much better team than their record or even their NET suggests. This is the kind of profile where strong scheduling is a big helps and the eye test matters. The Pirates challenged themselves with varying results. Losses to Louisville and bubble Oregon but a win at wrong side of the bubble Penn State. In league wins over Xavier and most importantly bubble wins over UConn and St John's. Just one bad loss that to Providence. The Big East is nowhere near as strong as previous seasons and the Pirates need to finish strong by at least taking care of their next 3 lesser games. A tough finish with UConn and St Johns but a split of those games and going 2 of 3 in the others will be enough to lock them in.
(38) SAINT BONAVENTURE (ATLANTIC 1O) 10-2: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 3-1, road 3-2, SOS 62
Very tough to seed or even determine if the Bonnies fit into this field. With just 12 games played, the profile seems incomplete. At 8-2 in league they are the projected A10 autobid winner but if they should slip up a few times just what are their chances? Their profile consists of beating VCU and Richmond both bubbles themselves. OOC the best win was Akron. Just two losses..at URI and last weekend at St Louis. So only 5 games scheduled left and 3 on the road. My advice to them is to win as many as possible. Could sustain one loss but with 3 other schools hanging around the bubble, the Bonnies are nowhere near safe.
18. (58) STANFORD 12-7: Q1: 2-5, Q2-2, road 5-4 SOS 48
Not exactly sure why the Cardinal overall NET lags despite a profile that is favorable vs many on the soft underbelly of the bubble. Most notable is the big OOC over Alabama at a neutral site and a home win over UCLA. Another key is 2 wins over banned Arizona. On the flip side, one can point to losses to bubbles North Carolina and Oregon. Losses to Utah and ASU are still Q2 losses but the kind of losses that can come back to haunt them. There are just 3 more quality win opportunities and Colorado is first man up and Oregon and at USC to come. Win 2 and they likely dance. Other than that will have to have a strong Pac 12 tourney run.
19. (28) ARKANSAS 14-5: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 4-0, road 2-4, SOS 82
Much like last year when you start to dig deep into the Hogs profile you see its pretty barren. Arky just does not have one damn win worth anything. Well I guess you can count projected low majors No Texas and Abilene Christian but are you seriousluy making a case by pointing to wins over those schools. Otherwise a sweep of a bad Auburn is the next best thing. They have lost to all the quality schools in the SEC and a ghastly 6 of their wins are from Q4. So now in make a case mode, 3 of their next 4 are Q1 opportunities..at Missour, Florida, Alabama. Hogs need two of these to remain on the right side of the bubble.
11 SEEDS
(49) UTAH STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST) 13-5: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 1-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-1, SOS 174
Aggies are the projected MWC autobid winner but just barely. In a 4 horse race nothing is certain and now with a Covid pause, the Aggies future is thrown into turmoil. The previous game cancelled vs Fresno was not their fault but the Wyoming series knocked out this week was and hopefully they can get back to playing with a big two game series vs Boise next week. For at large purposes, this is not a great resume. The SOS is poor. They split with the other two bubbles Colorado St and San Diego State who have better profile sheets. There are two Q3 losses one by 24 to South Dakota State, the other to UNLV. 7 of their wins come from Q4. Its likely their hopes as with the other 3 bubbles from the MWC come down to the conference tourney.
20. (50) NORTH CAROLINA 12-6: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 5-5, road 3-5, SOS 88
Tar Heels find themselves in quite the unusual position. One would think a 12-6 and 7-4 mark in the ACC would be solid enough on the resume but as said before, the ACC has gone to trash. UNC does not have one win in league vs a projected tourney win. Their best are home to Cuse and at Duke. . They lost their biggest non conference tilts to Iowa and Texas. Their biggest win of the season was a neutral site win over Stanford. That is it folks. This resume might run largely on reputation. Inexplicably yesterday's game vs Miami was cancelled because of Covid fears about videos were posted of players celebrating maskless at parties..OH THE HUMANITY...but I digress. 🙄. It may be no joking matter though if anyone at UNC tests positive. Huge games vs Virginia, Va Tech, and Louisville loom. Heels really need two of these games to stablize their chances to dance.
21. (31) DRAKE 16-1: Q1: 0-0, Q2: 4-0, road 7-1, SOS 291
You don't like the Drake...I hate the Drake....I loooove the Drake, How could you not like the Drake? Well EVERYONE looooooved the Drake last week. Sitting at 16-0, top 20 NET, top 25 ranking, it all went away. One crushing double digit loss to Valpo sent the Drake to bubble uncertainty. No doubt that gaudy 16-1 mark is impressive however there are no Quad 1 wins here and quite frankly the Q2 wins which are sweeps vs MissouriSt and Indiana State do not move the needle. Their actual best wins were a sweep of projected Summit winner South Dakota and also Big 12 also ran Kansas State. That SOS is tragic at 291 and it might be too much to overcome. Now the good news is that Drake can win the MVC tourney but even before that is their chance at 2 Q1 wins...If Drake can sweep those 2 and then not slip up against lesser in the MVC, its likely they are locking in. However a split may not be good enough barring a trip to the MVC finals and some prayers.
22. (54) CONNECTICUT 8-4: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 2-3, road 3-1, SOS 104
Plagued by a couple of Covid pauses, the Huskies simply need to play and win as many games as possible. Their profile is teetering after missing a chance to pick up a Q2 win at home over Seton Hall. At just 8-4, its a very weak and small sample size for the committee to look at. UConn is basically resting their NCAA case at the moment on a neutral site win over Pac 12 leader USC. Beyond that they were swept by Creighton and went 0-2 vs SJU/SHU. Just games left officially barring any additonal reschedulings and only 2 provide Q1 or 2 chances. Both on the road..Nova and SHU. Huskies will need one of those plus basically sweep the other 4 against lesser of the Big East. A real tough challenge but the good news is that Bouknight is coming back.
12 SEEDS
12. (61) TOLEDO 16-5 (MIDAMERICAN)
12. (68) BELMONT 19-1 (OHIO VALLEY)
PLAY IN 12 SEEDS
23. (47) COLORADO STATE 13-4: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 2-1, road 5-3, SOS 36
Rams saw their 2 games this week vs New Mexico get postponed due to Covid in the Lobos program. Still right in the thick of the MWC hunt, CSU has so far split with the other 3 bubbles..USU, SDSU, and BSU. Its enough to keep them on the right side of the bubble for now but its a shaky place to be with a two game road trip at Nevada. These are must win for the Rams who simply need to keep winning as there will be major conference schools with bigger wins likely making runs at these last few spots in the field. Its never a plus when 7 of your 13 wins come from Quad 4.
24. (40) LSU 11-6: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 1-1, road 2-4, SOS 19
The overall NET and SOS scream yes but here is your annual where's the beef profile from the SEC. Not sure a win over Arkansas a deep bubble school themselves should put you in the NCAA tourney but there you have it. Tigers are 6-4 in the SEC but were badly whipped by Alabama and have a bad loss to woeful Kentucky albeit a Q2 loss. OOC they scheduled strong but lost to Texas Tech and Florida and note a loss to bubble St Louis. Tigers have dropped 4 of 5 and their most recent game was ppd due to Covid with the Florida team. Just two quality win opportunties left in Tennessee and at Arkansas. Will need at least one plus sweeping the dregs of the SEC to keep themselves afloat on this side of the bubble.
25. (36) BOISE STATE 13-4: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 0-2, road 4-4, SOS 122
To say the Broncos had a bad week is an understatement. That's what two losses at Nevada will do to a profile BSU went from projected autobid winner in the Mountain West to 4th in the 4 race bubble of league schools. They have a good looking win over BYU OOC and did split wiht Colorado State but now are in a tough spot waiting to see if Utah State can clear Covid in time to play their two games and then comes a trip to San Diego State for two games to finish the season. Big risk, big reward. I will note that 11 of their 13 wins being in Q3 and 4 is not a good look. The Mountain West will not get 4 bids so this mess will get sorted out come conference tourney time
26. (59) OREGON 10-4: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 2-0, road 2-1, SOS 188
So things really start to look ugly as you get to the last team in line. With Arizona ineligible and the Ivy League passing on playing, two more bids available this year and the mediocrity is showing. Oregon has such weak Q1 an Q2 numbers you wonder if they are not a mid major. Their big win was a neutral site with over Seton Hall and a conference home win over Stanford. That's it, that is all. They have 2 Q3 losses to conference mates Washington State and Oregon State. The SOS languishes at 188. Their games with USC and UCLA were postponed due to Covid. They almost do not check any checkmarks. But here we are and here are the Ducks, for now last school in due to the Johnnies losing on Tuesday night. Going forward only 3 quality win opportunties remain at AZ and Stanford, and home to Colorado and the Ducks would do themselves well to win all of them.
OUT
27. (64) SAINT JOHN'S 13-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, road 4-4, SOS 141
Johnnies making another late run for a tourney bid with 6 straight victories. The big one of course is the win over league leading Villanova, while its not as big as it might be in other years, its a better win than just about anyone in the last 8 in or out line. There is a win over UConn to add to the profile but otherwise alot of losses to schools on this list, two to Creighton, loss to Xavir, BYU and Seton Hall. A couple of bad losses to Georgetown and Marquette do not help the situation. Games with Xavier, Nova and SHU loom so get a couple of them and avoid landmines in the Big East and the Johnnies will be good to go even with the shaky overall NET. EDIT Johnnies lose to Butler Tuesday night, a really bad loss that puts them from in the field at the writing of this to now OUT.
28. (39) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 13-4: Q1: 1-3, Q2: 2-2, road 4-2, SOS 134
Hard to figure out just what is going on in the A10. For now Bonaventure is the projected tourney winner but VCU is just a half game out in the standings and lead a trio of bubble schools with ordinary resumes and a dearth of quality wins. For the Commodores they have just a win over MVC projected bid winner Utah State. They lost to the Bonnies by double digits in their only meeting. They have yet to play any of the other top half A10 schools and their game with Davidson has just been postponed due to Covid issues with Davidson. Right now the question is can the A10 get two schools in, the thinking is yes but doubt they can get 3. The best shot for VCU comes with a two game series with bubble Richmond and cames vs St Louise/Davidson to end the year. These are almost all must wins at this point to distinguish them in league and the fear here is that other schools lurking below them on this from the Big 12 or even ACC can easily string together enough wins to pass them or any A10 school by in the pecking order.
29. (62) GEORGIA TECH 9-6: Q1: 1-4, Q2: 4-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 1-4, SOS 150
It's been a while since the Yellowjacket program has sniffed a NCAA bid....11 years in fact. There are some surprisingly good things on this resume. Ga Tech has 3 wins over projected tourney teams, the best of which was a win over Florida State. Additionally they took down Clemson and UNC. Those are good wins for this end of the bubble and lets note a heartbreaking two point loss to Virginia. The problem is a couple of bad losses to low majors Mercer and Georgia State. With the schedule not all that hot and the road mark needing more those are the kinds of things that prevent them from being in at this time. Unlike alot of the bubble though, the profile is willing enough that the Jackets can make their case. It starts with a huge home game vs Virginia. Its the feather in their cap that they so desperately need but short of that, they will have to make their hay in upcoming road tilts at Va Tech and Clemson. Do not count them out.
30.. (96) TCU 10-7: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 2-0, road 2-3, SOS 60
One of the most interesting cases this year. The overall NET is trash right now due in part to some hefty margin of defeats in Quad 1 and some close wins in Q3 and 4. Still when you get to the stank on the outside of this bubble, TCU actually does not look all that bad. Yes their case resides largely on being in the Big 12 and playing that tough conference schedule. With 7 schools pretty much locked in from the Big 12, TCU is the only bubble school this year. Note sneaky good wins vs Liberty and No Texas OOC. They have a sweep over a solid Oklahoma State but have come up empty vs the rest of the league. The good thing is that change in a hurry. The Horned Frogs have at least 4 Q1 opportunities left and if they can take 2 of them, they are going to vault in. Easier said then done but I think most bubbles would want to be in their shoes right now.
31. (73) MISSISSIPPI STATE 11-9: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-3, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-3, SOS 86
Not a strong profile at all but the Bulldogs at least have two quality wins to work with. Two homes wins over Missouri and Florida highlight an otherwise unremarkable profile that has been dinged by 5 losses in the last 7 games. Their Q2 wins are not real impressive and they have a pair of Q3 losses to Kentucky/A&M that hurt. Their path lies with beating the schools they should down the stretch and beating LSU tonight and then taking down Alabama later in the season. Doable but the trend has .not been good for them of late.
32. (76) PITTSBURGH 9-6: Q1:1-1, Q2: 4-4, road 3-2, 1 Q4 loss, SOS 140
Panthers are limping home losing 4 of their last 5 and to make matters worse, Covid issues with their opponents Fla St and Louisville postponed two opportunities to annex quality wins. Their profile rests with squeezing as much as they can out of win over Virginia Tech and a sweep of Syracuse. The latter of which should keep them ahead of Cuse in any discussion for the bubble. Yet we see an inexcusable Q4 loss to St Francis plus a bunch of losses to mundane ACC programs like Wake and Notre Dame. Only a pair of games versus Clemson provide any shot at additional quality wins. Those are must wins at this point barring an unlikely ACC tourney run. A longshot at best.
33. (52) RICHMOND 10-4: Q1: 2-1, Q2: 1-1, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-1, SOS 111
The Spiders are now on Covid pause #3 and it came at the worst possible time. Two winnable games vs the Georges were postponed but biggest of all was the first of two consecutive matchups with VCU. We shall see if the 2nd one gets played but Richmond desperatetly needs them both. They are riding solely on a very good win over Loyola Chicago. Yes they beat Kentucky but does absolutely nothing in the crazy season that is 2020-21. The thing though that may really kill them is that dreadful Q4 loss to La Salle and note there was already a Q3 loss to Hofstra. They have played less games like some other A10 schools and the warts will look bigger and the lack of quality wins will look bigger. Going to need to get going real fast.
34. (42) SAINT LOUIS 8-3: Q1: 0-1, Q2: 2-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 0-2, SOS 197
Billikens were hit hard by Covid missing an entire month. Upon coming back they promptly lost to straight Q3 including a hideous loss to La Salle. Yet the win last weekend over St Bonaventure keeps their hopes flickering. Just how much light there is remains to be seen. With only 11 games played and only 3...wait wut? in A10 play, I do not even know how to properly judge them or if they will even be considered with such a small sample size. Let's not even going into no road wins and a poor SOS. Their best path forward is to avoid Covid again while basically winning out. Two quality games vs VCU and Richmond remain. St Louis does have a win over bubble LSU so I suppose if they string a whole bunch of wins together, they can make their case. Honestly their best shot will be to win the A10 tourney, if there is one.
35. (55) SYRACUSE 10-6: Q1; 0-4, Q2: 1-1, road 1-5, SOS 75
The Orange have an incredibly weak profile but so is the bubble. Its hard to figure how a school with has 9 of its 10 wins from Q3 and 4 and has just won quality win over Virginia Tech can be in the serious running for an at large bid but that is reality now and a good argument to shrink back to 64. Cuse lost to any ACC worth its salt and the got swept by another mediocre team in Pitt. Beating the likes of Buffalo will no turn any heads. Orange just need to win and win some more. Quality opportunities in the closing weeks vs Louisville, UNC and a bubble buster game at Ga Tech but Cuse might have to win them all.
36. (43) MARYLAND 9-10: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 0-0, road 3-5, SOS 2
Just on their NET, Quad 1 mark, and SOS alone, the Terps would be in the field. Their resume blow any of these schools on the last 8 in last 8 out listing. Are you kidding me...road wins at Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Minnesota and then a home win vs Purdue for good measure. No losses outside of Quad 1. A schedule that is rated the 2nd toughest in the country....and yet the 9-10 mark torpedoes it all. The NCAA has never taken a sub 500 school and they are not going to take one this year. However they may take a school a game above 500 or even at 500. This is a very odd year, the bubble schools have very little quality wins. It is my opinion if the Terps can get 4 more league wins and then annex another in the Big 10 tourney to put guarantee themselves a 500 record, they will be dancing. Remember 5 more wins total could include some juicy quality wins in league. The Terps schedule is fairly soft down the stretch. Of course that is good and bad, winning the right games down the stretch is important, only 3 of them would be considered quality at this point...Minnesota, Rutgers and Penn State...and perhaps Michigan State. Do not worry too much about their final conference mark, if its 8-12 and they have the right metrics, it will not matter. While I would want to rate the Terps higher on this bubble list, until they reach 500 they and Penn State will have to stay at the bottom of this list
37. (29) PENN STATE 7-8: Q1; 3-7, Q2: 2-1, road 1-6, SOS 4
Facing the same issues as Maryland but throw in a Covid pause that knocked out a bunch of league games. Lions have the strong SOS and a better overall NET than Maryland and of course beat the Terps head to head. Not many schools can boast two quality OOC wins but the Lions have wins over Virginia Tech and VCU. Their best wins are Wisconsin and Rutgers. . Their are no bad losses. Yet here is the issue, 7-8 is very weak, Penn State needs wins and they need to try and make up as many games as possible. Not sure if that is going to happen. So many chances for quality wins remain, several of them at home. They can start by getting one at Michigan State but if not they will be putting pressure on themselves to try and claw their way back to 500. its an unfortunate situation and the lack of a full OOC slate is playing a big role here. Again like Maryland, they will remain at the bottom of this list until they can hit 500 overall.
LAST 4 IN: OREGON, BOISE STATE, LSU, COLORADO STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, GEORGIA TECH, TEXAS CHRISTIAN
Okay everyone grab a cup of java and come on in. Always want to hear suggestions and comments and looking forward to take questions during the day Wednesday. Note data is through Monday's game. Does not include Tuesday's results (except noted for St John's)
Note, the Ivy League is not competing this year. Bellarmine is not eligible for the NCAA tournament. Arizona is not eligible for the NCAA tournament
There are several schools dealing with Covid and the impact of how the NCAA weighs that issue is unknown. It is a very unusual year. What we once knew about the selection process might not be the same this season
You will love where Rutgers sits, lemme say that again, you will love the position where Rutgers sits right now.
Bare or bear with any typos, if you see them or any major errors, point them out, it takes alot of time to produce this and quite frankly proofreading isn't my strength🙂
Let's start this by identifying the one bid conferences and the schools that are projected to receive an automatic bid. There are 22 conferences that I project as one bid leagues
UMBC AmerEast
HOUSTON American
LIBERTY Atl Sun
SAINT BONAVENTURE A 10
EASTERN WASHINGTON Big Sky
WINTHROP Big South
CAL SANTA BARBARA Big West
NORTHEASTERN CAA
UAB CUSA
CLEVELAND STATE Horizon
SIENA MAAC
TOLEDO MAC
MORGAN STATE MEAC
LONG ISLAND NEC
BELMONT OVC
NAVY Patriot
WOFFORD Southern
ABILENE CHRISTIAN Southland
PRAIRIE VIEW SWAC
SO DAKOTA Summit
TEXAS STATE Sun Belt
GRAND CANYON WAC
Here are who I think are locks and their projected seedings as of today. There are 9 multi bid conferences. There are 37 at large bids and I have locked in 11 at large bids. I made the locks all the way down to the 5 line with the last 5 still not a lock yet These schools who have to have a historic collapse to not make the NCAA tournament. There are 26 at large bids available and at this time I have identified 37 schools competing for them.
1: GONZAGA (WCC), BAYLOR (BIG 12), OHIO STATE, MICHIGAN (BIG 10)
2: ILLINOIS, ALABAMA (SEC), VIRGINIA (ACC), VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
3: HOUSTON (AAC), TEXAS TECH, TENNESSEE, OKLAHOMA
4: IOWA, TEXAS, WEST VIRGINIA, MISSOURI
5: KANSAS, WISCONSIN, USC (PAC 12), ?
Here is the pecking order....
LAST 5 SEED
1. (24) PURDUE 13-7: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 5-0, road 3-5, SOS 32
Boilermakers look good to go. A whopping 9 Q1 and Q2 wins combined dwarfs anyone on the bubble list. They have a pair of wins over projected one seed Ohio State and those wins just overflow their cup. Wins over Indiana, Minnesota, and Liberty beef up the resume. Their only negative was a Q3 loss at Miami. Let us say one more win just for good measure
6 SEEDS
2. (26) RUTGERS 11-6: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 3-1, road 3-3, SOS 18
Scarlet Knights rode the seesaw from nearly breaking into the top 10 to a hideous 5 game losing streak that left them reeling. Yet now after 4 straight wins Rutgers has bolstered their resume and are very close to locking in their first NCAA appearance since 1991. Solid Q1 and 2 numbers highlighted by a golden ticket win over Illinois. The win over Purdue looks better each day. Wins at Indiana and Minnesota are two more vs NCAA likely schools. The big issue last year of road wins has been put to bed with 3 road wins already. The SOS of 18 is sparkling. OOC their best win is vs bubble Syracuse but in a crazy year like this, it will do. Knights. A win at Iowa tomorrow will be enough to punch their ticket otherwise just taking care of business vs some lower level Big 10 schools will do the trick. This team will dance, its the seeding implications that you should pay attention to.
3. (35) VIRGINIA TECH 14-4: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-4, road 3-3, SOS 73
With quality wins hard to come by in the mediocre ACC, the Hokies have a real good win with their win over projected 2 seed Virginia. Then add in an important neutral site win over another projected 2 seed in Villanova and you have a making of a nice resume. There is a win over Clemson amidst losses to bubbles Penn State, Syracuse and Pitt but the Hokies have no bad losses and the schedule strength is decent enough. Their game tonight with FSU was postponed but they will get another opportunity vs the Seminoles as well as other quality win opportunties vs Louisville and UNC. For them its more a case of just taking care of business in the games they should win.
4. (23) FLORIDA STATE 10-3: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 4-0, road 1-2, SOS 39
Seminoles had been rolling along until they were upset by Ga Tech and then knocked out by Covid. FSU has had their last 3 postponed but are set to return this weekend vs Wake Forest. Opportunities for quality wins vs Virginia and Va Tech loom right after that. No word on makeup dates for their postponements. Solid enough resume with two elusive OOC wins vs Florida and Indiana. Plus ACC wins over projected tourney schools Clemson, Louisville, and UNC. A Q3 loss to UCF is their only real blemish. Always treat schools coming off a Covid pause with some trepidation. FSU would seem in good shape with a couple of wins going forward.
5. (41) OKLAHOMA STATE 12-6: Q1: 4-4, Q2: 2-1, road 6-3, SOS 38
Cowboys benefitting from a strong Big 12 profile even as their conference mark as dipped under 500. Pay no attention to that, the wins are here highlighted by a road win at Texas Tech. Throw in wins over Texas and Kansas and a nice non conference win over Arkansas. The only real negative is getting swept by Big 12 also ran TCU but only one of those counts as a Q3. The SOS is solid and the whopping 6 road wins are impressive. Cowboys should be okay as long as they take care of the dregs coming up of Kansas St and Iowa State. Their final 4 of at Baylor, Texas Tech and Oklahoma 2x might be the toughest finish to a schedule in the country.
7 SEEDS
6. (32) CREIGHTON 14-5: Q1: 3-1, Q2: 6-1, 3 Q3 losses, road 6-2, SOS 162, NCSOS 311
Bluejays impressive 9-2 mark vs Q1 and 2 schools does not have a standout but the sheer number of solid wins is hard to dispute. Sweeps of Seton Hall, UConn and St Johns...all bubble schools but all projected tourney schools. Add in a win over Xavier and that is 7 wins vs NCAA projected schools. The issue for them is they have 3 very questionable Q3 losses at home to medicority in Marquette, Georgetown, and Providence. While the good outweighs the bad you can add in the terrible non conference mark of 311 which sees them just 5-3 vs Q3/4. Just need to be careful, with those wins vs bubble IN schools for now, those schools could easily fall out. There is a tricky stretch ahead at Gtown/Nova before another tricky stretch at Nova and at Xavier later in the year. Will need to watch.
7. (27) FLORIDA 10-5: Q1; 2-3, Q2: 4-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-3, SOS 76
Gators are another victim of Covid, now on a pause with 2 games postponed and their weekend game vs Texas A&M in doubt. Those were two Q1 games in LSU/Tenn that UF misses out on so for them they can hope they get rescheduled. Further down the road only at Arkansas and Missouri are games that fortify the resume. Still Covid cannot steal the good on their resume which are highlighted by a 26 point drubbing of Tennessee and a huge road win at West Virginia. Otherwise a win over projected in but bubble LSU and two Q3 losses to Kentucky and South Carolina are the things to look at. Again another school that can overcome Covid by just taking care of business in the games they should.
8. (15) COLORADO 15-5: Q1: 1-3, Q2: 5-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-4, SOS 81
Much like last year, the Buffaloes have a better overall NET than their resume would suggest. Just one Q1 win yet a good win over Pac 12 leading USC on the road. Beyond that are 3 nice wins at home over Arizona (ineligible) and bubbles Stanford and Oregon. The Buffs seem to have a good amount of separation from those Pac 12 bubbles even with that pair of bad losses to Utah and Washington. And if you go deep there are sneaky good minor wins over projected conference winners in Grand Canyon and South Dakota. A rough 4 game road trip to the Cal and Oregon schools await that could either lock up their bid or move them closer to the bubble and with USC/UCLA to finish the year, they might want to become road warriors.
9. (46) CLEMSON 12-5: Q1: 3-5, Q2: 5-0, road 1-4, SOS 10
Tigers have an interesting profile. Solid in league wins over Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina and two strong out of conference neutral site wins over Alabama and Purdue. The SOS is an outstanding 10 and 8 Q1 and 2s combined is a strong number. They have not lost a game outside of Q1. So why is their overall NET lagging at 46? Well diving in, we see a 35 point loss to Virginia, a 19 point loss at FSU, a 18 point loss at Ga Tech and worst of all a 26 point drubbing to weak sauce Duke. The efficiency numbers would seem poor but luckily for them its going to be the wins that the committee will consider the most. With the ACC very middling this year, the final 6 for the Tigers offer no chance for any quality type wins albeit Pitt and Notre Dame may be fringe Q1 opportunities. Another schools that just needs to minimize any slip ups and wins the games they should win.
8 SEEDS
10. (30) BYU 14-5: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 2-2, road 5-2, SOS 26
Tigers did not come close in their attempts to knock off Gonzaga but will gladly take the boost to their SOS which is very strong at 26. Shrewd scheduling paid off in wins over MWC leading Utah State and bubble but projected tourney schools San Diego State and St John's. Only on blemish and that to Pepperdine but its still a Q2 loss for now. Their job is just to hold sway in their final 4 and take care of business. The prototypical 8/9 profile.
11. (51) MINNESOTA 12-7: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 1-1, road 0-6, SOS 22
Gophers overall NET may lag but nothing can take away the fact that they have wins over 2 projected one seeds. Those wins over Michigan and Ohio State both by double digits will give and give some more. That is not even adding in the win over Iowa. Beyond that a win over bubble St Louis is a good one to have in their back pocket. A 25 point blowout of Michigan State may come into play in the future as well. The one big ugly thing is the 0-6 road mark. Its a criteria and remember how it dinged RU last year in the mock brackets. Yet uncertainty to how much emphasis will be placed on road games in such a weird season. It is likely Minny will have to pick up one somewhere or meet the wrath of Jerry Palm. The Gophers cannot rest on their laurels. Pretty simple for them, get a few more wins and they are in. Plenty of opportunities in the Big 10...count em 6 more Q1 games left, they will not have to be 500 in league either.
12. (37) UCLA 13-4: Q1: 2-4, Q2:1-0, road 3-3, SOS 98
Bruins are a legit contenders to win the Pac 12 title yet their profile is less than overwhelming. Pac 12 is not strong yet again, go figure so finding quality in league wins is difficult. UCLA has a win over Colorado and a win over Arizona but that is all. Note losses to bubbles Stanford and San Diego State. Another issue is that 10 of their 13 wins came to Q3 and 4 opponents. Only 2 Q1 opportunites left vs Colorado and USC and a Q2 game with Arizona. Bruins need one of those but also need to avoid annexing any bad losses to the Pac 12 bottom feeder. Could easily slip several rungs.
13. (33) XAVIER 11-2: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-1, road 2-1, SOS 90
The Musketeers are the middle of their 3rd Covid pause and tomorrow's game vs De Paul is a third straight casualty. Xavier has played just 6 conference games in the Big East and you now have to wonder about their future going forward. Despite a gaudy record, just two losses and a very solid NET, the resume is a bit lacking. The win over Oklahoma is nice but after that its just a win over last 4 in St John's. With a reduced schedule now a certaintly each game takes on great meaning which means each loss can start hurting the profile. Too much uncertainty to even know where on this list they might be headed. For now they are in, stay tuned.
9 SEEDS
14. (34) LOUISVILLE 11-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 6-0, road 3-3, SOS 50
Covid has hit Louisville as tomorrow's Pitt game will be the third in a row cancelled and now head coach Chris Mack has tested positive. Uncertainty going forward with their scheduling and they can hope to get some Q1 opportunies vs Virginia, Va Tech, and UNC later in the year. Still the Cards have zero Quad 1 wins and that is a big red flag. Their profile rides solely on 2 good home wins over Virginia Tech and Seton Hall. The ACC is so mired in muck, its hard to give much credit for beating the likes of Pitt and Georgia Tech. With a bad loss to Miami, the Cards have to be careful to get over Covid and fortify this resume.
(13) LOYOLA CHICAGO 15-3 (MISSOURI VALLEY): Q1: 0-1, Q2: 3-2, road 7-2, SOS 208
Projected MVC autobid winner at least for now. The NET is quite extreme given their lack of quality wins and poor SOS. Will be interesting to see where their seeding lies and possibly...or not Drake's. Likely the at large chances for both teams come down to this weekend. both games at Drake. If either sweep they are in very very good shape for an at large while the loser would likely need to win the MVC tourney. I think Loyola can survive a split and stay on the right side of the bubble. Yet their best win is North Texas and not sure a close loss to Richmond and 14 point loss to Wisconsin should be considered plusses. Hard to get around 12 of their 15 wins thus far being from Q3 and 4 but as I said sweep Drake and that changes everything.
15. (48) INDIANA 10-8: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 3-0, road 2-3, SOS 74
Hooisers got a much needed win over Iowa that completed a season sweep of the Hawkeyes. Alot of Q1 games but not alot to show for it. Their other Q1 win was sub 500 Penn State. They have a decent non conference win over bubble Stanford and sub 500 bubble Maryland. There is a bad loss to Northwestern and they would do themselves well to avoid the dreaded letdown tomorrow night against the Cats Clearly IU is going to have had more beef to this resume. Fortunately their Big 10 schedule is littered with them. 4 Q1s remain and maybe more depending on makeups of postponed games. Again do not pay attention to the conference mark if its sub 500. Its not a criteria. Its who you beat plain and simple.
16. (21) SAN DIEGO STATE 13-4: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 4-1, road 3-2, SOS 27
The plusses here is the great overall NET at 21 and the strong SOS of 27 which goes for OOC as well which is a very impressive 22. Unfortunately they are light on big wins..just UCLA and an in league win over bubble in Colorado State who they split with. They did not help themselves by getting swept by Utah State who now leads the MWC in a crowded 4 school bubble along. This conference will not get 4 so someone by seasons end will be the odd team out. Its likely that the 2 games the Aztecs host vs fading Boise State might be act as an opportunity for a team to cement their bid in or out. Aztecs may have a little more cushion than most, remember no bad losses here
10 SEEDS
17. (45) SETON HALL 11-8: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 3-3. road 6-4, SOS 20
The Pirates are a much better team than their record or even their NET suggests. This is the kind of profile where strong scheduling is a big helps and the eye test matters. The Pirates challenged themselves with varying results. Losses to Louisville and bubble Oregon but a win at wrong side of the bubble Penn State. In league wins over Xavier and most importantly bubble wins over UConn and St John's. Just one bad loss that to Providence. The Big East is nowhere near as strong as previous seasons and the Pirates need to finish strong by at least taking care of their next 3 lesser games. A tough finish with UConn and St Johns but a split of those games and going 2 of 3 in the others will be enough to lock them in.
(38) SAINT BONAVENTURE (ATLANTIC 1O) 10-2: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 3-1, road 3-2, SOS 62
Very tough to seed or even determine if the Bonnies fit into this field. With just 12 games played, the profile seems incomplete. At 8-2 in league they are the projected A10 autobid winner but if they should slip up a few times just what are their chances? Their profile consists of beating VCU and Richmond both bubbles themselves. OOC the best win was Akron. Just two losses..at URI and last weekend at St Louis. So only 5 games scheduled left and 3 on the road. My advice to them is to win as many as possible. Could sustain one loss but with 3 other schools hanging around the bubble, the Bonnies are nowhere near safe.
18. (58) STANFORD 12-7: Q1: 2-5, Q2-2, road 5-4 SOS 48
Not exactly sure why the Cardinal overall NET lags despite a profile that is favorable vs many on the soft underbelly of the bubble. Most notable is the big OOC over Alabama at a neutral site and a home win over UCLA. Another key is 2 wins over banned Arizona. On the flip side, one can point to losses to bubbles North Carolina and Oregon. Losses to Utah and ASU are still Q2 losses but the kind of losses that can come back to haunt them. There are just 3 more quality win opportunities and Colorado is first man up and Oregon and at USC to come. Win 2 and they likely dance. Other than that will have to have a strong Pac 12 tourney run.
19. (28) ARKANSAS 14-5: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 4-0, road 2-4, SOS 82
Much like last year when you start to dig deep into the Hogs profile you see its pretty barren. Arky just does not have one damn win worth anything. Well I guess you can count projected low majors No Texas and Abilene Christian but are you seriousluy making a case by pointing to wins over those schools. Otherwise a sweep of a bad Auburn is the next best thing. They have lost to all the quality schools in the SEC and a ghastly 6 of their wins are from Q4. So now in make a case mode, 3 of their next 4 are Q1 opportunities..at Missour, Florida, Alabama. Hogs need two of these to remain on the right side of the bubble.
11 SEEDS
(49) UTAH STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST) 13-5: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 1-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-1, SOS 174
Aggies are the projected MWC autobid winner but just barely. In a 4 horse race nothing is certain and now with a Covid pause, the Aggies future is thrown into turmoil. The previous game cancelled vs Fresno was not their fault but the Wyoming series knocked out this week was and hopefully they can get back to playing with a big two game series vs Boise next week. For at large purposes, this is not a great resume. The SOS is poor. They split with the other two bubbles Colorado St and San Diego State who have better profile sheets. There are two Q3 losses one by 24 to South Dakota State, the other to UNLV. 7 of their wins come from Q4. Its likely their hopes as with the other 3 bubbles from the MWC come down to the conference tourney.
20. (50) NORTH CAROLINA 12-6: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 5-5, road 3-5, SOS 88
Tar Heels find themselves in quite the unusual position. One would think a 12-6 and 7-4 mark in the ACC would be solid enough on the resume but as said before, the ACC has gone to trash. UNC does not have one win in league vs a projected tourney win. Their best are home to Cuse and at Duke. . They lost their biggest non conference tilts to Iowa and Texas. Their biggest win of the season was a neutral site win over Stanford. That is it folks. This resume might run largely on reputation. Inexplicably yesterday's game vs Miami was cancelled because of Covid fears about videos were posted of players celebrating maskless at parties..OH THE HUMANITY...but I digress. 🙄. It may be no joking matter though if anyone at UNC tests positive. Huge games vs Virginia, Va Tech, and Louisville loom. Heels really need two of these games to stablize their chances to dance.
21. (31) DRAKE 16-1: Q1: 0-0, Q2: 4-0, road 7-1, SOS 291
You don't like the Drake...I hate the Drake....I loooove the Drake, How could you not like the Drake? Well EVERYONE looooooved the Drake last week. Sitting at 16-0, top 20 NET, top 25 ranking, it all went away. One crushing double digit loss to Valpo sent the Drake to bubble uncertainty. No doubt that gaudy 16-1 mark is impressive however there are no Quad 1 wins here and quite frankly the Q2 wins which are sweeps vs MissouriSt and Indiana State do not move the needle. Their actual best wins were a sweep of projected Summit winner South Dakota and also Big 12 also ran Kansas State. That SOS is tragic at 291 and it might be too much to overcome. Now the good news is that Drake can win the MVC tourney but even before that is their chance at 2 Q1 wins...If Drake can sweep those 2 and then not slip up against lesser in the MVC, its likely they are locking in. However a split may not be good enough barring a trip to the MVC finals and some prayers.
22. (54) CONNECTICUT 8-4: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 2-3, road 3-1, SOS 104
Plagued by a couple of Covid pauses, the Huskies simply need to play and win as many games as possible. Their profile is teetering after missing a chance to pick up a Q2 win at home over Seton Hall. At just 8-4, its a very weak and small sample size for the committee to look at. UConn is basically resting their NCAA case at the moment on a neutral site win over Pac 12 leader USC. Beyond that they were swept by Creighton and went 0-2 vs SJU/SHU. Just games left officially barring any additonal reschedulings and only 2 provide Q1 or 2 chances. Both on the road..Nova and SHU. Huskies will need one of those plus basically sweep the other 4 against lesser of the Big East. A real tough challenge but the good news is that Bouknight is coming back.
12 SEEDS
12. (61) TOLEDO 16-5 (MIDAMERICAN)
12. (68) BELMONT 19-1 (OHIO VALLEY)
PLAY IN 12 SEEDS
23. (47) COLORADO STATE 13-4: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 2-1, road 5-3, SOS 36
Rams saw their 2 games this week vs New Mexico get postponed due to Covid in the Lobos program. Still right in the thick of the MWC hunt, CSU has so far split with the other 3 bubbles..USU, SDSU, and BSU. Its enough to keep them on the right side of the bubble for now but its a shaky place to be with a two game road trip at Nevada. These are must win for the Rams who simply need to keep winning as there will be major conference schools with bigger wins likely making runs at these last few spots in the field. Its never a plus when 7 of your 13 wins come from Quad 4.
24. (40) LSU 11-6: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 1-1, road 2-4, SOS 19
The overall NET and SOS scream yes but here is your annual where's the beef profile from the SEC. Not sure a win over Arkansas a deep bubble school themselves should put you in the NCAA tourney but there you have it. Tigers are 6-4 in the SEC but were badly whipped by Alabama and have a bad loss to woeful Kentucky albeit a Q2 loss. OOC they scheduled strong but lost to Texas Tech and Florida and note a loss to bubble St Louis. Tigers have dropped 4 of 5 and their most recent game was ppd due to Covid with the Florida team. Just two quality win opportunties left in Tennessee and at Arkansas. Will need at least one plus sweeping the dregs of the SEC to keep themselves afloat on this side of the bubble.
25. (36) BOISE STATE 13-4: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 0-2, road 4-4, SOS 122
To say the Broncos had a bad week is an understatement. That's what two losses at Nevada will do to a profile BSU went from projected autobid winner in the Mountain West to 4th in the 4 race bubble of league schools. They have a good looking win over BYU OOC and did split wiht Colorado State but now are in a tough spot waiting to see if Utah State can clear Covid in time to play their two games and then comes a trip to San Diego State for two games to finish the season. Big risk, big reward. I will note that 11 of their 13 wins being in Q3 and 4 is not a good look. The Mountain West will not get 4 bids so this mess will get sorted out come conference tourney time
26. (59) OREGON 10-4: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 2-0, road 2-1, SOS 188
So things really start to look ugly as you get to the last team in line. With Arizona ineligible and the Ivy League passing on playing, two more bids available this year and the mediocrity is showing. Oregon has such weak Q1 an Q2 numbers you wonder if they are not a mid major. Their big win was a neutral site with over Seton Hall and a conference home win over Stanford. That's it, that is all. They have 2 Q3 losses to conference mates Washington State and Oregon State. The SOS languishes at 188. Their games with USC and UCLA were postponed due to Covid. They almost do not check any checkmarks. But here we are and here are the Ducks, for now last school in due to the Johnnies losing on Tuesday night. Going forward only 3 quality win opportunties remain at AZ and Stanford, and home to Colorado and the Ducks would do themselves well to win all of them.
OUT
27. (64) SAINT JOHN'S 13-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, road 4-4, SOS 141
Johnnies making another late run for a tourney bid with 6 straight victories. The big one of course is the win over league leading Villanova, while its not as big as it might be in other years, its a better win than just about anyone in the last 8 in or out line. There is a win over UConn to add to the profile but otherwise alot of losses to schools on this list, two to Creighton, loss to Xavir, BYU and Seton Hall. A couple of bad losses to Georgetown and Marquette do not help the situation. Games with Xavier, Nova and SHU loom so get a couple of them and avoid landmines in the Big East and the Johnnies will be good to go even with the shaky overall NET. EDIT Johnnies lose to Butler Tuesday night, a really bad loss that puts them from in the field at the writing of this to now OUT.
28. (39) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 13-4: Q1: 1-3, Q2: 2-2, road 4-2, SOS 134
Hard to figure out just what is going on in the A10. For now Bonaventure is the projected tourney winner but VCU is just a half game out in the standings and lead a trio of bubble schools with ordinary resumes and a dearth of quality wins. For the Commodores they have just a win over MVC projected bid winner Utah State. They lost to the Bonnies by double digits in their only meeting. They have yet to play any of the other top half A10 schools and their game with Davidson has just been postponed due to Covid issues with Davidson. Right now the question is can the A10 get two schools in, the thinking is yes but doubt they can get 3. The best shot for VCU comes with a two game series with bubble Richmond and cames vs St Louise/Davidson to end the year. These are almost all must wins at this point to distinguish them in league and the fear here is that other schools lurking below them on this from the Big 12 or even ACC can easily string together enough wins to pass them or any A10 school by in the pecking order.
29. (62) GEORGIA TECH 9-6: Q1: 1-4, Q2: 4-0, 2 Q3 losses, road 1-4, SOS 150
It's been a while since the Yellowjacket program has sniffed a NCAA bid....11 years in fact. There are some surprisingly good things on this resume. Ga Tech has 3 wins over projected tourney teams, the best of which was a win over Florida State. Additionally they took down Clemson and UNC. Those are good wins for this end of the bubble and lets note a heartbreaking two point loss to Virginia. The problem is a couple of bad losses to low majors Mercer and Georgia State. With the schedule not all that hot and the road mark needing more those are the kinds of things that prevent them from being in at this time. Unlike alot of the bubble though, the profile is willing enough that the Jackets can make their case. It starts with a huge home game vs Virginia. Its the feather in their cap that they so desperately need but short of that, they will have to make their hay in upcoming road tilts at Va Tech and Clemson. Do not count them out.
30.. (96) TCU 10-7: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 2-0, road 2-3, SOS 60
One of the most interesting cases this year. The overall NET is trash right now due in part to some hefty margin of defeats in Quad 1 and some close wins in Q3 and 4. Still when you get to the stank on the outside of this bubble, TCU actually does not look all that bad. Yes their case resides largely on being in the Big 12 and playing that tough conference schedule. With 7 schools pretty much locked in from the Big 12, TCU is the only bubble school this year. Note sneaky good wins vs Liberty and No Texas OOC. They have a sweep over a solid Oklahoma State but have come up empty vs the rest of the league. The good thing is that change in a hurry. The Horned Frogs have at least 4 Q1 opportunities left and if they can take 2 of them, they are going to vault in. Easier said then done but I think most bubbles would want to be in their shoes right now.
31. (73) MISSISSIPPI STATE 11-9: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-3, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-3, SOS 86
Not a strong profile at all but the Bulldogs at least have two quality wins to work with. Two homes wins over Missouri and Florida highlight an otherwise unremarkable profile that has been dinged by 5 losses in the last 7 games. Their Q2 wins are not real impressive and they have a pair of Q3 losses to Kentucky/A&M that hurt. Their path lies with beating the schools they should down the stretch and beating LSU tonight and then taking down Alabama later in the season. Doable but the trend has .not been good for them of late.
32. (76) PITTSBURGH 9-6: Q1:1-1, Q2: 4-4, road 3-2, 1 Q4 loss, SOS 140
Panthers are limping home losing 4 of their last 5 and to make matters worse, Covid issues with their opponents Fla St and Louisville postponed two opportunities to annex quality wins. Their profile rests with squeezing as much as they can out of win over Virginia Tech and a sweep of Syracuse. The latter of which should keep them ahead of Cuse in any discussion for the bubble. Yet we see an inexcusable Q4 loss to St Francis plus a bunch of losses to mundane ACC programs like Wake and Notre Dame. Only a pair of games versus Clemson provide any shot at additional quality wins. Those are must wins at this point barring an unlikely ACC tourney run. A longshot at best.
33. (52) RICHMOND 10-4: Q1: 2-1, Q2: 1-1, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-1, SOS 111
The Spiders are now on Covid pause #3 and it came at the worst possible time. Two winnable games vs the Georges were postponed but biggest of all was the first of two consecutive matchups with VCU. We shall see if the 2nd one gets played but Richmond desperatetly needs them both. They are riding solely on a very good win over Loyola Chicago. Yes they beat Kentucky but does absolutely nothing in the crazy season that is 2020-21. The thing though that may really kill them is that dreadful Q4 loss to La Salle and note there was already a Q3 loss to Hofstra. They have played less games like some other A10 schools and the warts will look bigger and the lack of quality wins will look bigger. Going to need to get going real fast.
34. (42) SAINT LOUIS 8-3: Q1: 0-1, Q2: 2-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 0-2, SOS 197
Billikens were hit hard by Covid missing an entire month. Upon coming back they promptly lost to straight Q3 including a hideous loss to La Salle. Yet the win last weekend over St Bonaventure keeps their hopes flickering. Just how much light there is remains to be seen. With only 11 games played and only 3...wait wut? in A10 play, I do not even know how to properly judge them or if they will even be considered with such a small sample size. Let's not even going into no road wins and a poor SOS. Their best path forward is to avoid Covid again while basically winning out. Two quality games vs VCU and Richmond remain. St Louis does have a win over bubble LSU so I suppose if they string a whole bunch of wins together, they can make their case. Honestly their best shot will be to win the A10 tourney, if there is one.
35. (55) SYRACUSE 10-6: Q1; 0-4, Q2: 1-1, road 1-5, SOS 75
The Orange have an incredibly weak profile but so is the bubble. Its hard to figure how a school with has 9 of its 10 wins from Q3 and 4 and has just won quality win over Virginia Tech can be in the serious running for an at large bid but that is reality now and a good argument to shrink back to 64. Cuse lost to any ACC worth its salt and the got swept by another mediocre team in Pitt. Beating the likes of Buffalo will no turn any heads. Orange just need to win and win some more. Quality opportunities in the closing weeks vs Louisville, UNC and a bubble buster game at Ga Tech but Cuse might have to win them all.
36. (43) MARYLAND 9-10: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 0-0, road 3-5, SOS 2
Just on their NET, Quad 1 mark, and SOS alone, the Terps would be in the field. Their resume blow any of these schools on the last 8 in last 8 out listing. Are you kidding me...road wins at Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Minnesota and then a home win vs Purdue for good measure. No losses outside of Quad 1. A schedule that is rated the 2nd toughest in the country....and yet the 9-10 mark torpedoes it all. The NCAA has never taken a sub 500 school and they are not going to take one this year. However they may take a school a game above 500 or even at 500. This is a very odd year, the bubble schools have very little quality wins. It is my opinion if the Terps can get 4 more league wins and then annex another in the Big 10 tourney to put guarantee themselves a 500 record, they will be dancing. Remember 5 more wins total could include some juicy quality wins in league. The Terps schedule is fairly soft down the stretch. Of course that is good and bad, winning the right games down the stretch is important, only 3 of them would be considered quality at this point...Minnesota, Rutgers and Penn State...and perhaps Michigan State. Do not worry too much about their final conference mark, if its 8-12 and they have the right metrics, it will not matter. While I would want to rate the Terps higher on this bubble list, until they reach 500 they and Penn State will have to stay at the bottom of this list
37. (29) PENN STATE 7-8: Q1; 3-7, Q2: 2-1, road 1-6, SOS 4
Facing the same issues as Maryland but throw in a Covid pause that knocked out a bunch of league games. Lions have the strong SOS and a better overall NET than Maryland and of course beat the Terps head to head. Not many schools can boast two quality OOC wins but the Lions have wins over Virginia Tech and VCU. Their best wins are Wisconsin and Rutgers. . Their are no bad losses. Yet here is the issue, 7-8 is very weak, Penn State needs wins and they need to try and make up as many games as possible. Not sure if that is going to happen. So many chances for quality wins remain, several of them at home. They can start by getting one at Michigan State but if not they will be putting pressure on themselves to try and claw their way back to 500. its an unfortunate situation and the lack of a full OOC slate is playing a big role here. Again like Maryland, they will remain at the bottom of this list until they can hit 500 overall.
LAST 4 IN: OREGON, BOISE STATE, LSU, COLORADO STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, GEORGIA TECH, TEXAS CHRISTIAN
