Okay here is the update after some serious numbers crunching.. You know the drill. Grab a cup of java and come in. Questions, comments, cheers and jeers are encouraged if not required.
Let's start this by identifying the one bid conferences and the school that are projected to receive an automatic bid.
There are 22 one bid conferences. There are 10 multi bid conferences.There are 36 at large bids and I have locked in 20 at large bids leaving 16 bids still available. I made the locks all the way down to the 7 line.
1: KANSAS (BIG 12), BAYLOR, GONZAGA (WCC), SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
2: MARYLAND (BIG 10), FLORIDA STATE (ACC), DAYTON, DUKE (ACC)
3: SETON HALL (BIG EAST), VILLANOVA, LOUISVILLE, CREIGHTON
4: KENTUCKY (SEC), OREGON, MICHIGAN STATE, ARIZONA
5: AUBURN, COLORADO, WEST VIRGINIA, OHIO STATE
6: MICHIGAN, PENN STATE, BUTLER, BYU
7: IOWA, ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN, MARQUETTE
8 SEEDS
1. 16) TEXAS TECH 18-9: Q1: 3-8, Q2: 4-1, road 3-5, SOS 86
Overall NET has soared as the Red Raiders have won 5 of their last 6 navigating any landmines in the Big 12. Win over Louisville is marquee one and wins over WVU and Oklahoma are very good. Yet cannot lock in the Red Raiders just yet because of a brutal 4 game finish....at desperate Oklahoma, Texas, at Baylor and Kansas. Hard to imagine them losing out and if they take care of Texas that will do it for them.
2. (30) LSU 19-8: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 7-1, road 5-4 SOS 8
Tigers certainly have come back to earth after that 17-2 start and got the needed win at South Carolina to keep them from a freefall. Peeling back the onion shows an interesting resume and not in a good way. LSU has just one win over a projected tourney team and that was a home win over Florida. Now they do have 11 Q1 and 2s total but wins over distant bubbles So Carolina, Texas and Arkansas do not move the needle. The URI and Bama wins are to teams projected just outside the field. Note losses to bubbles Utah State, Bama and USC. With road trips to Florida and Arkansas coming up, it is imperative that the Tigers get one of those and not slip up vs Georgia or Texas A&M. Generally they look safe but if the losses pile up expect those lack of quality wins to be scrutinized. One thing they have going for them the committee drools over is SOS.
(41) ARIZONA STATE (PAC 12)19-8 : Q1: 5-6, Q2: 4-2, road 6-3, SOS 13
Sun Devils riding the wave all the way to first place in the Pac 12. Now projected as the autobid winner, ASU has won 7 in a row and most likely locks in with a win at either USC or UCLA. Best wins are Arizona and Oregon and then add in the two wins over bubbles Stanford and USC. Not alot to recommend non conference as best win is just St Johns. Note the loss to bubble Virginia and a 40 point loss to St Mary's. Still the SOS is strong and there are no losses outside Q1 and 2. Look good to go.
3. (32) SAINT MARY'S 22-6: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-2, SOS 82
Gaels survived a tricky week in the WCC but their profile is getting a bounce by the improved profiles of the schools they beat earlier in the season. Biggest being BYU's win over Gonzaga, STMU split with Cougars. In addition Wisconsin, Arizona State and Utah State keep winning. Those are great non conference wins for the Gaels and they need that to overcome those Q3 losses to Winthrop and Santa Clara. Blown out the first time they played Gonzaga, now they get them on the road so would need quite a turnaround. A win at Santa Clara is probably all they need at this point, but what if they lose. They seem alright based on those quality wins but will float closer to the last 4 byes line.
9 SEEDS
4. (52) INDIANA 18-9: Q1: 6-7, Q2: 2-2, road 2-6, SOS 42
Hoosiers had a great week which emphatically put their status as solid heading in the final 2 weeks. Win at Minnesota and home to Penn State added 2 Quad 1 wins to their total and those are simply precious this time of year. Plus the road win was key as that was starting to be an issue for them. Overall NET still lags a bit. That win over FSU is growing in stature by the day. 3 other Q1 wins vs Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa. There is a bubble loss to Arky but its a clean slate with no loss to Q3 or Q4. However next two involve a rough road trip to Purdue and Illinois, lose both and those last 2 at home of Minny and Wisky become must wins. Still some work to do but ultimately in a better position than last week.
5. (24) HOUSTON 21-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 6-3, road 6-5, SOS 81
Cougars seem to be flip flopping from game to game as the projected AAC autobid winner. Now that distinction goes back to Cincinnati as Houston lost at Memphis Saturday. Its a Q1 loss true but Memphis is a distant bubble team. The issue is that UH has just a sweep of last 4 in Wichita State to point to as quality wins. OOC there is a win over South Carolina and losses to Oregon and BYU, no doubt the latters rise has helped the Houston NET rise as well. There are no bad losses and they certainly are a legit contender if not fave to win the AAC tourney yet we are left wanting more here. Well in come the Bearcats this weekend in a huge tussle, thinking is the Bearcats may need that one more but its a game that could lock Houston in. A loss and they will still have to navigate a trip to improving UConn and a rematch with Memphis.
6. (34) RUTGERS 17-10: Q1: 3-8, Q2: 4-1, road 1-7, SOS 51
Rutgers 17 game win streak at the RAC was broken by Michigan and it was a costly loss as the Scarlet Knights continued their road woes at Wisconsin. Now losers in 5 of their last 7. The Knights who looked rosy a few weeks ago have only added 1 quality win (Illinois) in the past month so while their profile begins to sag, other schools are step by step narrowing the gap with their quality wins. There is no sugarcoating it. The selection committee specifically looks at road mark in the selection process, the 1-9 road/neutral mark is horrific and they will not get in if it turns out 1-12. Knights in desperate need of a win and opportunity arises again on the road at Penn State. That is the quality win that can shut up the handwringing about the road mark and just might be all RU needs to punch their tickets. The quality wins are still there....Seton Hall, Penn State, Wisconsin, Illiniois, Indiana and throw in SF Austin. 6-8 vs schools in the tourney is a strong mark among the bubble schools. Rutgers will still have two more cracks to pick up Q1 wins the following week but the vultures are starting to circle. Just get it done.
7. (33) FLORIDA 17-10: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 4-3, road 3-6, SOS 33
Gators failed to pick up a win at Kentucky which could have locked them in. The good news is a rematch is in offing at home but first up is another home gave vs LSU. A win there makes it pretty close for UFA and probably would just need a split of the road tile at Tennessee/Georgia. The Auburn win is the highlight of the resume but the Providence will is looking better. Though just 3 wins on the year vs tourney teams reflecting the mediocrity in the middle of the SEC. Yet there are no bad losses and the SOS is pretty strong so have to like their chances of dancing.
10 SEEDS
(54) CINCINNATI (AAC) 18-9: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 6-0, 4 Q3 losses, road 4-5, SOS 11
After a crushing OT loss to Central Florida damaged their at large chances and knocked them out of the AAC lead, the Bearcats responded by getting a quality win albeit a Q2 win over Wichita State. Combined with Houston's loss moved Cincy back in first and the projected autobid for now. Their at large chances are a bit murkier. The UCF loss gave them a whopping 4 Quadrant 3 losses. Colgate, Bowling Green, and Tulane are the others. Not sure that sweeping Wichita and beating Houston is enough given another loss or two. The SOS is strong but they didnt get any wins OOC, their best being Tennessee. Huge bubble matchup at Houston looms. A loss there not only knocks them out of first in the AAC but also out of the field for now. To get back in they would need wins at USF and home to Temple plus a run to the AAC finals.
(46) NORTHERN IOWA (MVC) 21-5: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 7-4, SOS 98
Panthers are the projected autobid winners from the Missouri Valley Conference. Their at large chances seem less certain given two losses in the past 10 days. Those were just Q2 losses, its actually the Q3 losses to Southern Illinois and Illinois State that hurt the most. Only one Quad 1 win and its a good win at Colorado which shows the committee that UNI can beat a NCAA team on the road. Another nice neutral site win. The committee could be willing to reward them but first they will need to win out the final 2 of Evansville and a dangerous game at Drake. Not getting an at large bid with 7 losses.
8. (51) VIRGINIA 19-7: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 6-3, road 5-4, SOS 98
Cavs have won 4 in a row and 7 of 8, taking care of business and avoiding any ACC booby traps. UVA milking that win over ACC leader Florida State for all its worth and the Arizona State win is looking better. Still because those are the only 2 wins vs tourney teams they need something more. Well opportunity awaits as Duke and Louisville pay visits. Its likely a win in either game will vault the Cavs in while two losses might very well bounce them out even if they win on the road to Va Tech/Miami. Its put up or shut up time.
9. (44) XAVIER 17-10: Q1: 3-9, Q2:6-1, road 4-5, SOS 12
Xavier failed to get another needed quality win as they fell to Villanova at home over the weekend. The issue is its not an overwhelming profile especially in Quad 1. XU will certainly need to add a quality win or two to make sure they get in. The win over Seton Hall certainly is a bountiful one but after that its just right on the bubbles Providence and Cincinnati. Pretty clean sheet with no bad losses and the SOS is quite willing. Next up is De Paul, a game which will not move the needle. Its the road games at Georgetown/Providence plus the season finale vs Butler that will determine the Muskateers' fate. I would say its pretty simple. They need 2 of out of 3 and they lock in. Fail to do that and serious work in the Big East tourney will be needed.
11 SEEDS
10. (38) UTAH STATE 20-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, road 4-5, SOS 101
Aggies have done everything right after a rocky month of January left them gasping for air in the Mountain West. Winners of 5 in a row and 8 of 9, the only loss being SD State as pushed them in the field for now at least. Now its about finishing the job in the last 2 which includes a dangerous game at New Mexico. Aggies lost both games to the Aztecs and lost to both WCC rivals BYU and St Mary's. However they picked up neutral site wins over bubbles Florida and LSU and a sneaky good win over a third projected NCAA team North Texas. The issues here are that 16 of the 20 wins are to Q3 and Q4 schools and that Q3 loss to Air Force. Because of the wobbliness of those around them the Aggies have floated upwards but that can change quickly with a loss before the MWC championship game.
11. (47) USC 19-9: Q1: 2-7, Q2: 6-1, road 5-6, SOS 62
USC has lost 5 of 7 and got swept on the road by Colorado and Utah. Trojans have slid their way down the seed list and are at a crossroads as they head into their last 3. Just 2-7 in Q1 and only the win over LSU matters. There are wins over bubble Stanford and surging UCLA but this hardly is a solid resume. Its boom or bust for them all at home. Two games vs the Arizona schools and another vs UCLA. Huge opportunities albeit only Arizona is the Q1. Its likely need 2 of these to remain in the field because anything other than that means the Pac 12 tourney becomes their last gasp to make their case. The Pac 12 is becoming crowded with bubbles and they will not be getting 7.
(39) EAST TENNESSEE STATE 22-4 (Southern): Q1: 2-1, Q2; 1-1, road 10-3, SOS 147
Buccaneers are the projected autobid winners from the Southern Conference. Should they not win the conference tournament, they certainly will be considered as an at large. Would rate it as a decent shot if they manage the next 2 at Wofford and vs Western Carolina and then reach the finals of the Southern tourney. A win at LSU is their best claim but I bet they would like that Q4 loss back at Mercer
12. (53) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17-10: Q1: 5-4, Q2: 4-3, 3 Q3 losses, road 5-5, SOS 53
Wolfpack missed out on picking up a needed quality win by going down to defeat at home vs Florida State. They have 5 Q1 wins and 9 Q1&2 wins but a closer look shows that only 3...Duke, Wisconsin and Virginia are tourney teams. Its a nice base of schools and of course that Duke win is worth double but the issue here is the 3 Q3 losses. Ga Tech, UNC, BC. The problem going forward in the last 4 is just one Q1 opportunity left at Duke. Certainly a sweep of Duke would overcome any flaws but its not likely the Pack win there so they will probably have to negotiate landmines at UNC and Pitt and beat Wake at home. Rougher than you think and its likely they will need to pick up some wins in the ACC tourney.
PLAY IN 12 SEEDS
13. (31) STANFORD 18-9: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 4-3, road 4-4, SOS 96
Cardinal are benefiting from an unusually generous NET hiding the fact that their profile is flimsy. Just 2 Q1 wins and Oregon is a very good win but that win over Washington a Q1 in name only. They have a non conference win over bubble Oklahoma and also a win over UCLA. Do not particularly like their shaky schedule strength or that hideous conference loss at Cal. Still, Stanford was able to sweep the Washington schools on the road after going through a stretch where they lost 7 of 8. Home games vs Utah and Colorado loom and they likely need both and will also need a split of the Oregon schools on the road. Tough task and not sure they are capable of it.
14. (48) PROVIDENCE 16-12: Q1: 7-8, Q2: 3-0, 3 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss, road 4-6, SOS 14
Friars are more than zombies now after picking up two more Q1 wins by taking down Georgetown and Marquette last week. Now with an outrageous 7 Q1 wins in a whopping 15 opportunities, the Friars have more than enough quality wins to get an at large. Again the issue that makes them the most scandalous bubble team this year is their 3 Q3 losses Charleston, Penn and Northwestern and that horrific Q4 loss to Long Beach State. And note Penn is hanging by a thread in Q3 and can easily fall into Q4. How do the wins vs Creighton, Butler, Marquette 2x, Seton Hall balance that out. Note losses to URI and Xavier. The Friars will certainly test the selection committee's mantra of body of work and how you finish does not matter. They will do well to just keep winning and winning. Next up at Villanova then home to Xavier and De Paul. They very well probably need 2 of 3 to look solid but they will also need to show up in the Big East tournament.
15. (55) OKLAHOMA 16-11: Q1: 3-9, Q2: 5-2, road 2-8, SOS 32
Sooners have tumbled to last team in as the metrics keep getting worse. Riding on that win over a fading West Virginia is not cutting the mustard anymore. Wins over far bubbles Minnesota and Texas and over North Texas are not going to move the needle here. That road mark is a serious red flag to add to their tenuous profile. Sooners did not look competitive in that road loss at Oklahoma State so it is hard to believe a stretch run is coming. Still the next 2 of Texas Tech and at WVU offer the wins they need to stablize the profile and solidify their bid. Last two of Texas and at TCU are not gimmes. They likely need 3 of these or a very deep run in the Big 12 tourney.
16. (37) RHODE ISLAND 19-7: Q1: 1-4, Q2: 5-2, road 6-5, SOS 54
It is amazing how one loss can send the Rams to the last in line but that is what happened when they went down to defeat at Davidson. Its counts as a Q2 loss but in reality its a bad one and not one that they can afford at this juncture. With VCU tanking. URI is left with Providence as their best win. The win over Alabama is a nice one to have in a bubble comparison and there is also a win over North Texas. The non conference SOS of 28 showing losses to Maryland, WVU, and LSU is a big help here and will get them an extra look. There is a Q3 loss to Brown that they are probably ruing. The Rams still get another crack at Dayton in a home game and a win there makes it academic but short of that to make the field they will need to win the 3 others..at Ford/StL/at UMass
12 SEEDS: STEPHEN F AUSTIN, LIBERTY
13 SEEDS: AKRON, YALE, VERMONT, NORTH TEXAS
14 SEEDS: NEW MEXICO STATE, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, HOFSTRA, COLGATE
15 SEEDS: UC IRVINE, MONTANA, LITTLE ROCK, WRIGHT STATE
16 SEEDS: RADFORD, AUSTIN PEAY, SAINT FRANCIS, PRAIRIE VIEW, SAINT PETER'S, NORTH CAROLINA A&T
OUT
17. (44) WICHITA STATE 20-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 6-3, road 4-4, SOS 86
No shame in losing at Cincinnati but the problem is it was another missed opportunity for a desperately needed Q1 win. Note that is 0-4 vs Cincy/Houston if it gets to that. The value of Q1 vs AAC bubbles is incredibly high right now. Neither of the Shockers Q1 wins are vs tourney teams...OK State/UConn. Their profile is solely riding on a win over Oklahoma who is just barely in the field. Two others over So Carolina and Memphis are nice but the reality is just barely one win over a tourney team and if that does not change, its going to be hard for them to dance. The scary thing is the last 4 games offer no opportunities does not change that. The game at Memphis will be considered a Q1 game, how much does it move the needle. Its likely that WSU needs to sweep all 4 by beating the Tigers, winning at SMU and then taking care of Temple and Tulsa at home. Their margin of error is extremely slim going forward. Its likely their case will be determined by their performance in the AAC tournament.
18. (40) ALABAMA 15-12: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 4-4, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-6, SOS 23
Tide are hanging around but cannot seem to be gaining any traction. The loss to Texas A&M a Q3 home loss was particularly damaging because it added to their earlier Q3 loss to Penn. The overall record continues to be a sketchy considering the overall weakness of the SEC. Now the SOS is strong and the best thing going for them are the wins over Auburn and LSU. They have an important win vs close bubble Richmond and a win over SF Austin. If they can win down the stretch, Bama could state their case. Yet only one of these at Mississippi State is a Q1 opportunity. A loss there in an enormous bubble elimination game for both and Bama's chances probably fall by the wayside short of a SEC final run. Even with a win vs Miss St, its likely that they will also have to take of business vs SC/Vandy/Mizzou
19. (49) RICHMOND 20-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, road 7-3, SOS 79
Spiders' resume suffered a potentially deadly bite at St Bonaventure. With not a lot of meat on the resume, its about winning, winning and more winning for them. There are no more Q1 opportunities or shots at quality wins for that matter in the regular season, only the potential to pick up bad losses. Its likely that the Spiders chances rest on making it to the A10 finals which may or may not include a win over Dayton depending on seeding. The profiles of A10 has taken a hit with VCU fading and URI now bubblicious. Big here is the loss to bubble Alabama. Best win is Wisconsin and Rhody but is that really enough to make a case. Just keep winning.
20. (76) UCLA 16-11: Q1: 5-5, Q2: 2-4, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-4, SOS 73
Bruins have replaced the Friars as the Zombie school on the bubble. Not many would have thought 3 weeks ago sitting at a plus 100 NET and 11-11 record that there was any possibility UCLA could even sniff the bubble but here they are. The win at Arizona was the first spark but the win Saturday at Colorado giving them a sweep of the Buffaloes was the necessary one to give them a realistic hope. Still there are concerns here. That overall NET of 76 is worrisome. There is a Q4 loss to Cal State Fullerton which is torpedoing that number. Not sure how many losses they can absorb going forward. Its 5 Q1 wins yet its really only those 3 aforementioned wins that move the needle. Their case will be made or not with home games vs the Arizona schools and a trip to bubble USC. Two out of 3 probably lands them in the field, one win or none means a trip to the Pac 12 finals is mandatory. Going to be interesting to watch.
21. (59) GEORGETOWN 15-12: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 5-2, road 4-5, SOS 17
Hoyas had a rough week losing twice to push them out of the field and really that De Paul loss was nasty so late in the year. Hoyas may have 9 win inside Q1 and 2 but only two of them...Creighton and Butler are tourney teams. That just isnt enough given the Hoyas have had plenty of opportunities. SOS is a positive and no bad Quadrant losses on the slate. Their best non conference win is looking a bit better in Texas but Hoyas probably need wins in 3 of their last 4 to vault back into the field. Will not be easy. Road trips to Marquette and Creighton and homes with Nova and Xavier. An opportunity to certainly earn their way in.
22. (61) MEMPHIS 19-8: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 5-1, 3 Q3 losses, road 4-4, SOS 89
Tigers held off Houston in a NCAA saving win. Now with 3 quality wins, Cincy and NC State are the others, they are at least in position to make a run. It may take nothing short of running the table. Will not be easy with 3 road games vs SMU, Tulane and Houston and a home tilt with Wichita State. Obviously those latter are the biggest here and are absolutely both must wins to add to the resume. There are 3 Q3 losses to overcome..SMU, Georgia, and South Florida. It is a crowded AAC bubble and Memphis is a bit further behind the others at this point.
23. (57) MISSISSIPPI STATE 17-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-6, SOS 49
Nothing spectacular here on the Bulldogs resume but the soft underbelly of the bubble allows them to float into contention and that is even after a bad loss at Texas A&M. Like most SEC bubbles there is not alot to recommend here. Here we have a win at Florida and a sweep of Arkansas and win over So Carolina. Best OOC win was sub 500 Kansas State. There are Q3 losses to La Tech and New Mexico State. Its likely they need to win out to remain on the bubble which would mean winning that bubble elimination game with Alabama and also a road win at South Carolina. Even with 20 plus wins, MSU would still need to pick up at least one quality win in the SEC tourney. Seems very unlikely given their performance thus far.
24. (63) SOUTH CAROLINA 16-11: Q2; 4-7, Q2: 3-2, 1 Q4 loss, road 6-4, SOS 63
Cocks did not have a good week losing at Mississippi State and LSU but actually moving up in the pecking order due to the ineptitude of the bubble around. Still a big gap between them and last in but the wins vs Kentucky, Virginia and now surging Clemson stack up well with the drek around them. The issue here is that just one Q1 opportunity exists and no games vs tourney teams the rest of the way. SC must win at Alabama and Vandy and defend home court vs Miss State and Georgia. That means winning out and that is a tough call for a school that I do not think is capable of that run. Oh did we mention the Q3 loss to Boston U or the Q4 to Stetson yet?
25. (45) ARKANSAS 17-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 2-4, road 4-6, SOS 25
The win over Missouri will not move any needle but it snapped a 5 game losing streak one which moved Arky from a projected 7 streak to out of the field in less than 3 weeks. What was important is they got back their star Isaiah Joe. How the selection committee factors his injury when evaluating their losing skid is up in the air. Still it is getting late for the Razorbacks and only one more Q1 opportunity exists home to LSU. They have just one win vs a tourney team in Indiana and do have a win at Alabama. Despite the solid SOS, 13 of their 17 wins are coming from Q3 and 4. One interesting thing to note is their SEC SOS is weak, getting the top 4 schools only once so far and they lost to them all. Arkansas most likely has to win out these last 4 which is possible but pretty questionable given their recent slide. Then they will likely need some quality wins in the SEC tourney. Seems like a longshot.
26. (73) CLEMSON 14-12: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 5-4, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-6, SOS 44
Not many talking about the Tigers but they remain on the periphery of the bubble. Those wins over Duke and Louisville are overflowing with good and its going to come down to their home game this weekend with Florida State, a win there and winning at least 2 of their other 3 of GaTech 2x and at Va Tech would pretty much surge them into the field. Do not forget they also have a win over bubble NC State. Yes they have no quality OOC win and the two conference Q3 losses to Va Tech and Miami but beating the big 3 in the ACC matters. The stealth profile of the field has a shot.
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27. (66) TEXAS 17-11: Q1: 3-8, Q2: 2-3, road 4-5, SOS 43
Longhorns appear in the far nether regions of the bubble after a home win over sagging West Virginia. It is their first and only win over a NCAA projected school so that is a start at least. They do have a Q1 win at Purdue but that is it folks. Their next best win is TCU. 12 of their 17 wins are to Q3 and Q4, not a good spot to be in for a power 5 school. It's a pretty barren profile. Because the next two offer Q1 road opportunties at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, the Horns at least have a shot.
Yet one loss in those 2 will extinguish any realistic hope. Do you believe? I don't.
28. (36) PURDUE 14-14/(42) MINNESOTA 13-13
Some good here but cannot realistically consider them bubble teams until either of them get one game above 500. Stay tuned.
FIRST 4 BYES: XAVIER, UTAH STATE, USC, NORTH CAROLINA STATE
LAST 4 IN: RHODE ISLAND, OKLAHOMA, PROVIDENCE, STANFORD
FIRST 4 OUT: WICHITA STATE, ALABAMA, RICHMOND, UCLA
Let's start this by identifying the one bid conferences and the school that are projected to receive an automatic bid.
There are 22 one bid conferences. There are 10 multi bid conferences.There are 36 at large bids and I have locked in 20 at large bids leaving 16 bids still available. I made the locks all the way down to the 7 line.
1: KANSAS (BIG 12), BAYLOR, GONZAGA (WCC), SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
2: MARYLAND (BIG 10), FLORIDA STATE (ACC), DAYTON, DUKE (ACC)
3: SETON HALL (BIG EAST), VILLANOVA, LOUISVILLE, CREIGHTON
4: KENTUCKY (SEC), OREGON, MICHIGAN STATE, ARIZONA
5: AUBURN, COLORADO, WEST VIRGINIA, OHIO STATE
6: MICHIGAN, PENN STATE, BUTLER, BYU
7: IOWA, ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN, MARQUETTE
8 SEEDS
1. 16) TEXAS TECH 18-9: Q1: 3-8, Q2: 4-1, road 3-5, SOS 86
Overall NET has soared as the Red Raiders have won 5 of their last 6 navigating any landmines in the Big 12. Win over Louisville is marquee one and wins over WVU and Oklahoma are very good. Yet cannot lock in the Red Raiders just yet because of a brutal 4 game finish....at desperate Oklahoma, Texas, at Baylor and Kansas. Hard to imagine them losing out and if they take care of Texas that will do it for them.
2. (30) LSU 19-8: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 7-1, road 5-4 SOS 8
Tigers certainly have come back to earth after that 17-2 start and got the needed win at South Carolina to keep them from a freefall. Peeling back the onion shows an interesting resume and not in a good way. LSU has just one win over a projected tourney team and that was a home win over Florida. Now they do have 11 Q1 and 2s total but wins over distant bubbles So Carolina, Texas and Arkansas do not move the needle. The URI and Bama wins are to teams projected just outside the field. Note losses to bubbles Utah State, Bama and USC. With road trips to Florida and Arkansas coming up, it is imperative that the Tigers get one of those and not slip up vs Georgia or Texas A&M. Generally they look safe but if the losses pile up expect those lack of quality wins to be scrutinized. One thing they have going for them the committee drools over is SOS.
(41) ARIZONA STATE (PAC 12)19-8 : Q1: 5-6, Q2: 4-2, road 6-3, SOS 13
Sun Devils riding the wave all the way to first place in the Pac 12. Now projected as the autobid winner, ASU has won 7 in a row and most likely locks in with a win at either USC or UCLA. Best wins are Arizona and Oregon and then add in the two wins over bubbles Stanford and USC. Not alot to recommend non conference as best win is just St Johns. Note the loss to bubble Virginia and a 40 point loss to St Mary's. Still the SOS is strong and there are no losses outside Q1 and 2. Look good to go.
3. (32) SAINT MARY'S 22-6: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-1, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-2, SOS 82
Gaels survived a tricky week in the WCC but their profile is getting a bounce by the improved profiles of the schools they beat earlier in the season. Biggest being BYU's win over Gonzaga, STMU split with Cougars. In addition Wisconsin, Arizona State and Utah State keep winning. Those are great non conference wins for the Gaels and they need that to overcome those Q3 losses to Winthrop and Santa Clara. Blown out the first time they played Gonzaga, now they get them on the road so would need quite a turnaround. A win at Santa Clara is probably all they need at this point, but what if they lose. They seem alright based on those quality wins but will float closer to the last 4 byes line.
9 SEEDS
4. (52) INDIANA 18-9: Q1: 6-7, Q2: 2-2, road 2-6, SOS 42
Hoosiers had a great week which emphatically put their status as solid heading in the final 2 weeks. Win at Minnesota and home to Penn State added 2 Quad 1 wins to their total and those are simply precious this time of year. Plus the road win was key as that was starting to be an issue for them. Overall NET still lags a bit. That win over FSU is growing in stature by the day. 3 other Q1 wins vs Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa. There is a bubble loss to Arky but its a clean slate with no loss to Q3 or Q4. However next two involve a rough road trip to Purdue and Illinois, lose both and those last 2 at home of Minny and Wisky become must wins. Still some work to do but ultimately in a better position than last week.
5. (24) HOUSTON 21-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 6-3, road 6-5, SOS 81
Cougars seem to be flip flopping from game to game as the projected AAC autobid winner. Now that distinction goes back to Cincinnati as Houston lost at Memphis Saturday. Its a Q1 loss true but Memphis is a distant bubble team. The issue is that UH has just a sweep of last 4 in Wichita State to point to as quality wins. OOC there is a win over South Carolina and losses to Oregon and BYU, no doubt the latters rise has helped the Houston NET rise as well. There are no bad losses and they certainly are a legit contender if not fave to win the AAC tourney yet we are left wanting more here. Well in come the Bearcats this weekend in a huge tussle, thinking is the Bearcats may need that one more but its a game that could lock Houston in. A loss and they will still have to navigate a trip to improving UConn and a rematch with Memphis.
6. (34) RUTGERS 17-10: Q1: 3-8, Q2: 4-1, road 1-7, SOS 51
Rutgers 17 game win streak at the RAC was broken by Michigan and it was a costly loss as the Scarlet Knights continued their road woes at Wisconsin. Now losers in 5 of their last 7. The Knights who looked rosy a few weeks ago have only added 1 quality win (Illinois) in the past month so while their profile begins to sag, other schools are step by step narrowing the gap with their quality wins. There is no sugarcoating it. The selection committee specifically looks at road mark in the selection process, the 1-9 road/neutral mark is horrific and they will not get in if it turns out 1-12. Knights in desperate need of a win and opportunity arises again on the road at Penn State. That is the quality win that can shut up the handwringing about the road mark and just might be all RU needs to punch their tickets. The quality wins are still there....Seton Hall, Penn State, Wisconsin, Illiniois, Indiana and throw in SF Austin. 6-8 vs schools in the tourney is a strong mark among the bubble schools. Rutgers will still have two more cracks to pick up Q1 wins the following week but the vultures are starting to circle. Just get it done.
7. (33) FLORIDA 17-10: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 4-3, road 3-6, SOS 33
Gators failed to pick up a win at Kentucky which could have locked them in. The good news is a rematch is in offing at home but first up is another home gave vs LSU. A win there makes it pretty close for UFA and probably would just need a split of the road tile at Tennessee/Georgia. The Auburn win is the highlight of the resume but the Providence will is looking better. Though just 3 wins on the year vs tourney teams reflecting the mediocrity in the middle of the SEC. Yet there are no bad losses and the SOS is pretty strong so have to like their chances of dancing.
10 SEEDS
(54) CINCINNATI (AAC) 18-9: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 6-0, 4 Q3 losses, road 4-5, SOS 11
After a crushing OT loss to Central Florida damaged their at large chances and knocked them out of the AAC lead, the Bearcats responded by getting a quality win albeit a Q2 win over Wichita State. Combined with Houston's loss moved Cincy back in first and the projected autobid for now. Their at large chances are a bit murkier. The UCF loss gave them a whopping 4 Quadrant 3 losses. Colgate, Bowling Green, and Tulane are the others. Not sure that sweeping Wichita and beating Houston is enough given another loss or two. The SOS is strong but they didnt get any wins OOC, their best being Tennessee. Huge bubble matchup at Houston looms. A loss there not only knocks them out of first in the AAC but also out of the field for now. To get back in they would need wins at USF and home to Temple plus a run to the AAC finals.
(46) NORTHERN IOWA (MVC) 21-5: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 7-4, SOS 98
Panthers are the projected autobid winners from the Missouri Valley Conference. Their at large chances seem less certain given two losses in the past 10 days. Those were just Q2 losses, its actually the Q3 losses to Southern Illinois and Illinois State that hurt the most. Only one Quad 1 win and its a good win at Colorado which shows the committee that UNI can beat a NCAA team on the road. Another nice neutral site win. The committee could be willing to reward them but first they will need to win out the final 2 of Evansville and a dangerous game at Drake. Not getting an at large bid with 7 losses.
8. (51) VIRGINIA 19-7: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 6-3, road 5-4, SOS 98
Cavs have won 4 in a row and 7 of 8, taking care of business and avoiding any ACC booby traps. UVA milking that win over ACC leader Florida State for all its worth and the Arizona State win is looking better. Still because those are the only 2 wins vs tourney teams they need something more. Well opportunity awaits as Duke and Louisville pay visits. Its likely a win in either game will vault the Cavs in while two losses might very well bounce them out even if they win on the road to Va Tech/Miami. Its put up or shut up time.
9. (44) XAVIER 17-10: Q1: 3-9, Q2:6-1, road 4-5, SOS 12
Xavier failed to get another needed quality win as they fell to Villanova at home over the weekend. The issue is its not an overwhelming profile especially in Quad 1. XU will certainly need to add a quality win or two to make sure they get in. The win over Seton Hall certainly is a bountiful one but after that its just right on the bubbles Providence and Cincinnati. Pretty clean sheet with no bad losses and the SOS is quite willing. Next up is De Paul, a game which will not move the needle. Its the road games at Georgetown/Providence plus the season finale vs Butler that will determine the Muskateers' fate. I would say its pretty simple. They need 2 of out of 3 and they lock in. Fail to do that and serious work in the Big East tourney will be needed.
11 SEEDS
10. (38) UTAH STATE 20-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, road 4-5, SOS 101
Aggies have done everything right after a rocky month of January left them gasping for air in the Mountain West. Winners of 5 in a row and 8 of 9, the only loss being SD State as pushed them in the field for now at least. Now its about finishing the job in the last 2 which includes a dangerous game at New Mexico. Aggies lost both games to the Aztecs and lost to both WCC rivals BYU and St Mary's. However they picked up neutral site wins over bubbles Florida and LSU and a sneaky good win over a third projected NCAA team North Texas. The issues here are that 16 of the 20 wins are to Q3 and Q4 schools and that Q3 loss to Air Force. Because of the wobbliness of those around them the Aggies have floated upwards but that can change quickly with a loss before the MWC championship game.
11. (47) USC 19-9: Q1: 2-7, Q2: 6-1, road 5-6, SOS 62
USC has lost 5 of 7 and got swept on the road by Colorado and Utah. Trojans have slid their way down the seed list and are at a crossroads as they head into their last 3. Just 2-7 in Q1 and only the win over LSU matters. There are wins over bubble Stanford and surging UCLA but this hardly is a solid resume. Its boom or bust for them all at home. Two games vs the Arizona schools and another vs UCLA. Huge opportunities albeit only Arizona is the Q1. Its likely need 2 of these to remain in the field because anything other than that means the Pac 12 tourney becomes their last gasp to make their case. The Pac 12 is becoming crowded with bubbles and they will not be getting 7.
(39) EAST TENNESSEE STATE 22-4 (Southern): Q1: 2-1, Q2; 1-1, road 10-3, SOS 147
Buccaneers are the projected autobid winners from the Southern Conference. Should they not win the conference tournament, they certainly will be considered as an at large. Would rate it as a decent shot if they manage the next 2 at Wofford and vs Western Carolina and then reach the finals of the Southern tourney. A win at LSU is their best claim but I bet they would like that Q4 loss back at Mercer
12. (53) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17-10: Q1: 5-4, Q2: 4-3, 3 Q3 losses, road 5-5, SOS 53
Wolfpack missed out on picking up a needed quality win by going down to defeat at home vs Florida State. They have 5 Q1 wins and 9 Q1&2 wins but a closer look shows that only 3...Duke, Wisconsin and Virginia are tourney teams. Its a nice base of schools and of course that Duke win is worth double but the issue here is the 3 Q3 losses. Ga Tech, UNC, BC. The problem going forward in the last 4 is just one Q1 opportunity left at Duke. Certainly a sweep of Duke would overcome any flaws but its not likely the Pack win there so they will probably have to negotiate landmines at UNC and Pitt and beat Wake at home. Rougher than you think and its likely they will need to pick up some wins in the ACC tourney.
PLAY IN 12 SEEDS
13. (31) STANFORD 18-9: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 4-3, road 4-4, SOS 96
Cardinal are benefiting from an unusually generous NET hiding the fact that their profile is flimsy. Just 2 Q1 wins and Oregon is a very good win but that win over Washington a Q1 in name only. They have a non conference win over bubble Oklahoma and also a win over UCLA. Do not particularly like their shaky schedule strength or that hideous conference loss at Cal. Still, Stanford was able to sweep the Washington schools on the road after going through a stretch where they lost 7 of 8. Home games vs Utah and Colorado loom and they likely need both and will also need a split of the Oregon schools on the road. Tough task and not sure they are capable of it.
14. (48) PROVIDENCE 16-12: Q1: 7-8, Q2: 3-0, 3 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss, road 4-6, SOS 14
Friars are more than zombies now after picking up two more Q1 wins by taking down Georgetown and Marquette last week. Now with an outrageous 7 Q1 wins in a whopping 15 opportunities, the Friars have more than enough quality wins to get an at large. Again the issue that makes them the most scandalous bubble team this year is their 3 Q3 losses Charleston, Penn and Northwestern and that horrific Q4 loss to Long Beach State. And note Penn is hanging by a thread in Q3 and can easily fall into Q4. How do the wins vs Creighton, Butler, Marquette 2x, Seton Hall balance that out. Note losses to URI and Xavier. The Friars will certainly test the selection committee's mantra of body of work and how you finish does not matter. They will do well to just keep winning and winning. Next up at Villanova then home to Xavier and De Paul. They very well probably need 2 of 3 to look solid but they will also need to show up in the Big East tournament.
15. (55) OKLAHOMA 16-11: Q1: 3-9, Q2: 5-2, road 2-8, SOS 32
Sooners have tumbled to last team in as the metrics keep getting worse. Riding on that win over a fading West Virginia is not cutting the mustard anymore. Wins over far bubbles Minnesota and Texas and over North Texas are not going to move the needle here. That road mark is a serious red flag to add to their tenuous profile. Sooners did not look competitive in that road loss at Oklahoma State so it is hard to believe a stretch run is coming. Still the next 2 of Texas Tech and at WVU offer the wins they need to stablize the profile and solidify their bid. Last two of Texas and at TCU are not gimmes. They likely need 3 of these or a very deep run in the Big 12 tourney.
16. (37) RHODE ISLAND 19-7: Q1: 1-4, Q2: 5-2, road 6-5, SOS 54
It is amazing how one loss can send the Rams to the last in line but that is what happened when they went down to defeat at Davidson. Its counts as a Q2 loss but in reality its a bad one and not one that they can afford at this juncture. With VCU tanking. URI is left with Providence as their best win. The win over Alabama is a nice one to have in a bubble comparison and there is also a win over North Texas. The non conference SOS of 28 showing losses to Maryland, WVU, and LSU is a big help here and will get them an extra look. There is a Q3 loss to Brown that they are probably ruing. The Rams still get another crack at Dayton in a home game and a win there makes it academic but short of that to make the field they will need to win the 3 others..at Ford/StL/at UMass
12 SEEDS: STEPHEN F AUSTIN, LIBERTY
13 SEEDS: AKRON, YALE, VERMONT, NORTH TEXAS
14 SEEDS: NEW MEXICO STATE, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, HOFSTRA, COLGATE
15 SEEDS: UC IRVINE, MONTANA, LITTLE ROCK, WRIGHT STATE
16 SEEDS: RADFORD, AUSTIN PEAY, SAINT FRANCIS, PRAIRIE VIEW, SAINT PETER'S, NORTH CAROLINA A&T
OUT
17. (44) WICHITA STATE 20-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 6-3, road 4-4, SOS 86
No shame in losing at Cincinnati but the problem is it was another missed opportunity for a desperately needed Q1 win. Note that is 0-4 vs Cincy/Houston if it gets to that. The value of Q1 vs AAC bubbles is incredibly high right now. Neither of the Shockers Q1 wins are vs tourney teams...OK State/UConn. Their profile is solely riding on a win over Oklahoma who is just barely in the field. Two others over So Carolina and Memphis are nice but the reality is just barely one win over a tourney team and if that does not change, its going to be hard for them to dance. The scary thing is the last 4 games offer no opportunities does not change that. The game at Memphis will be considered a Q1 game, how much does it move the needle. Its likely that WSU needs to sweep all 4 by beating the Tigers, winning at SMU and then taking care of Temple and Tulsa at home. Their margin of error is extremely slim going forward. Its likely their case will be determined by their performance in the AAC tournament.
18. (40) ALABAMA 15-12: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 4-4, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-6, SOS 23
Tide are hanging around but cannot seem to be gaining any traction. The loss to Texas A&M a Q3 home loss was particularly damaging because it added to their earlier Q3 loss to Penn. The overall record continues to be a sketchy considering the overall weakness of the SEC. Now the SOS is strong and the best thing going for them are the wins over Auburn and LSU. They have an important win vs close bubble Richmond and a win over SF Austin. If they can win down the stretch, Bama could state their case. Yet only one of these at Mississippi State is a Q1 opportunity. A loss there in an enormous bubble elimination game for both and Bama's chances probably fall by the wayside short of a SEC final run. Even with a win vs Miss St, its likely that they will also have to take of business vs SC/Vandy/Mizzou
19. (49) RICHMOND 20-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, road 7-3, SOS 79
Spiders' resume suffered a potentially deadly bite at St Bonaventure. With not a lot of meat on the resume, its about winning, winning and more winning for them. There are no more Q1 opportunities or shots at quality wins for that matter in the regular season, only the potential to pick up bad losses. Its likely that the Spiders chances rest on making it to the A10 finals which may or may not include a win over Dayton depending on seeding. The profiles of A10 has taken a hit with VCU fading and URI now bubblicious. Big here is the loss to bubble Alabama. Best win is Wisconsin and Rhody but is that really enough to make a case. Just keep winning.
20. (76) UCLA 16-11: Q1: 5-5, Q2: 2-4, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-4, SOS 73
Bruins have replaced the Friars as the Zombie school on the bubble. Not many would have thought 3 weeks ago sitting at a plus 100 NET and 11-11 record that there was any possibility UCLA could even sniff the bubble but here they are. The win at Arizona was the first spark but the win Saturday at Colorado giving them a sweep of the Buffaloes was the necessary one to give them a realistic hope. Still there are concerns here. That overall NET of 76 is worrisome. There is a Q4 loss to Cal State Fullerton which is torpedoing that number. Not sure how many losses they can absorb going forward. Its 5 Q1 wins yet its really only those 3 aforementioned wins that move the needle. Their case will be made or not with home games vs the Arizona schools and a trip to bubble USC. Two out of 3 probably lands them in the field, one win or none means a trip to the Pac 12 finals is mandatory. Going to be interesting to watch.
21. (59) GEORGETOWN 15-12: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 5-2, road 4-5, SOS 17
Hoyas had a rough week losing twice to push them out of the field and really that De Paul loss was nasty so late in the year. Hoyas may have 9 win inside Q1 and 2 but only two of them...Creighton and Butler are tourney teams. That just isnt enough given the Hoyas have had plenty of opportunities. SOS is a positive and no bad Quadrant losses on the slate. Their best non conference win is looking a bit better in Texas but Hoyas probably need wins in 3 of their last 4 to vault back into the field. Will not be easy. Road trips to Marquette and Creighton and homes with Nova and Xavier. An opportunity to certainly earn their way in.
22. (61) MEMPHIS 19-8: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 5-1, 3 Q3 losses, road 4-4, SOS 89
Tigers held off Houston in a NCAA saving win. Now with 3 quality wins, Cincy and NC State are the others, they are at least in position to make a run. It may take nothing short of running the table. Will not be easy with 3 road games vs SMU, Tulane and Houston and a home tilt with Wichita State. Obviously those latter are the biggest here and are absolutely both must wins to add to the resume. There are 3 Q3 losses to overcome..SMU, Georgia, and South Florida. It is a crowded AAC bubble and Memphis is a bit further behind the others at this point.
23. (57) MISSISSIPPI STATE 17-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-6, SOS 49
Nothing spectacular here on the Bulldogs resume but the soft underbelly of the bubble allows them to float into contention and that is even after a bad loss at Texas A&M. Like most SEC bubbles there is not alot to recommend here. Here we have a win at Florida and a sweep of Arkansas and win over So Carolina. Best OOC win was sub 500 Kansas State. There are Q3 losses to La Tech and New Mexico State. Its likely they need to win out to remain on the bubble which would mean winning that bubble elimination game with Alabama and also a road win at South Carolina. Even with 20 plus wins, MSU would still need to pick up at least one quality win in the SEC tourney. Seems very unlikely given their performance thus far.
24. (63) SOUTH CAROLINA 16-11: Q2; 4-7, Q2: 3-2, 1 Q4 loss, road 6-4, SOS 63
Cocks did not have a good week losing at Mississippi State and LSU but actually moving up in the pecking order due to the ineptitude of the bubble around. Still a big gap between them and last in but the wins vs Kentucky, Virginia and now surging Clemson stack up well with the drek around them. The issue here is that just one Q1 opportunity exists and no games vs tourney teams the rest of the way. SC must win at Alabama and Vandy and defend home court vs Miss State and Georgia. That means winning out and that is a tough call for a school that I do not think is capable of that run. Oh did we mention the Q3 loss to Boston U or the Q4 to Stetson yet?
25. (45) ARKANSAS 17-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 2-4, road 4-6, SOS 25
The win over Missouri will not move any needle but it snapped a 5 game losing streak one which moved Arky from a projected 7 streak to out of the field in less than 3 weeks. What was important is they got back their star Isaiah Joe. How the selection committee factors his injury when evaluating their losing skid is up in the air. Still it is getting late for the Razorbacks and only one more Q1 opportunity exists home to LSU. They have just one win vs a tourney team in Indiana and do have a win at Alabama. Despite the solid SOS, 13 of their 17 wins are coming from Q3 and 4. One interesting thing to note is their SEC SOS is weak, getting the top 4 schools only once so far and they lost to them all. Arkansas most likely has to win out these last 4 which is possible but pretty questionable given their recent slide. Then they will likely need some quality wins in the SEC tourney. Seems like a longshot.
26. (73) CLEMSON 14-12: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 5-4, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-6, SOS 44
Not many talking about the Tigers but they remain on the periphery of the bubble. Those wins over Duke and Louisville are overflowing with good and its going to come down to their home game this weekend with Florida State, a win there and winning at least 2 of their other 3 of GaTech 2x and at Va Tech would pretty much surge them into the field. Do not forget they also have a win over bubble NC State. Yes they have no quality OOC win and the two conference Q3 losses to Va Tech and Miami but beating the big 3 in the ACC matters. The stealth profile of the field has a shot.
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27. (66) TEXAS 17-11: Q1: 3-8, Q2: 2-3, road 4-5, SOS 43
Longhorns appear in the far nether regions of the bubble after a home win over sagging West Virginia. It is their first and only win over a NCAA projected school so that is a start at least. They do have a Q1 win at Purdue but that is it folks. Their next best win is TCU. 12 of their 17 wins are to Q3 and Q4, not a good spot to be in for a power 5 school. It's a pretty barren profile. Because the next two offer Q1 road opportunties at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, the Horns at least have a shot.
Yet one loss in those 2 will extinguish any realistic hope. Do you believe? I don't.
28. (36) PURDUE 14-14/(42) MINNESOTA 13-13
Some good here but cannot realistically consider them bubble teams until either of them get one game above 500. Stay tuned.
FIRST 4 BYES: XAVIER, UTAH STATE, USC, NORTH CAROLINA STATE
LAST 4 IN: RHODE ISLAND, OKLAHOMA, PROVIDENCE, STANFORD
FIRST 4 OUT: WICHITA STATE, ALABAMA, RICHMOND, UCLA
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