BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 3/3/2020

Shell21

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Utah state a typical mid major team . No d , not athletic and can msake threes
 

RU MAN

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$hit! It looks like Utah State is going to pull this one out. Damn.
 

bac2therac

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its over...Utah State wins...oh well..would have been nice to rub it in Jerry's face tonight

they will have to win tomorrow as well, we will get our chance
 

Shell21

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New Mexico totally undisciplined . Utah state does not pass the eye test
 

RU MAN

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Going for the quadruple day, but oh well, still three of the teams in our neighborhood went down and that's a good thing.
 

RU MAN

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New Mexico totally undisciplined . Utah state does not pass the eye test
No they don't. Yeah they shoot threes. Put a major team against them that plays great D and they'll fold like a cheap lawn chair.
 

Erial_Lion

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No they don't. Yeah they shoot threes. Put a major team against them that plays great D and they'll fold like a cheap lawn chair.
They’ve already beaten a few power conference teams that will dance (Florida and LSU) on neutral courts. Merrill is the kind of guy that can put them on his back, and they’ve got some great FT shooters to ice games away. I could see them being a dangerous ~11 seed if they get in.
 

bac2therac

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wait I thought Jerry said we needed two...they are slipping

meanwhile Utah State lost to 145 New Mexico last week and was all out to beat them tonight..doesnt sound like a tourney team
 
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kcg88

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Washington State is winning at Arizona... They might be the biggest NET frauds going (either them or Texas Tech).
 

Erial_Lion

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Like the MWC moving up a week. Something else to fill the slate, and it’s less time spent watching the WCC early round games on BYUTV’s non-HD cameras that make me rub my eyes every 30 seconds.
 

bac2therac

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Washington State is winning at Arizona... They might be the biggest NET frauds going (either them or Texas Tech).

if Washington State does win at Zona, the whole profile of the Pac 12 will take a hit..of course they will only fall to 13 by losing their 3rd in a row
 
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Mr Magoo

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Palm doesn’t think the Stanford loss hurts them...lol. What planet does this guy live on? He seems to make up rules as he goes. He was just on TV. I never saw him before. He looks and talks like he’s mentally challenged.
 
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goru7

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For anyone staying up, root for Nevada over Wyoming. Much better chance of Nevada knocking USU off than Wyoming.
Calling it now. Nevada will beat Utah State because they are actually pretty good. Beat San Diego State away and held on after a furious run by hitting some big shots down the stretch to give them their only loss. We do have to worry about them possibly winning the Mountain West tourney as well.
 

Erial_Lion

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Calling it now. Nevada will beat Utah State because they are actually pretty good. Beat San Diego State away and held on after a furious run by hitting some big shots down the stretch to give them their only loss. We do have to worry about them possibly winning the Mountain West tourney as well.
That was UNLV, not Nevada
 

bac2therac

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Anchors teasing palm saying the Stanford loss doesnt hurt them and they are still in

he is on crack...

Stanford is in trouble because Oregon is next and its likely a loss. Both Stanford and ASU have fallen to the last 4 in right now on my bracket. Its likely Stanford could see Oregon again in the Pac 12 opener....oh and somehow Oregon State counts as a Q1..whatever...they just got swept by them. Now ASU started out with cushion over Stanford but that loss was at home so they are in trouble given that they dont have the NET that Stanford is boasting. However ASU gets Washington State next
 
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Scangg

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he is on crack...

Stanford is in trouble because Oregon is next and its likely a loss. Both Stanford and ASU have fallen to the last 4 in right now on my bracket. Its likely Stanford could see Oregon again in the Pac 12 opener....oh and somehow Oregon State counts as a Q1..whatever...they just got swept by them. Now ASU started out with cushion over Stanford but that loss was at home so they are in trouble given that they dont have the NET that Stanford is boasting. However ASU gets Washington State next
I was definitely surprised when he said Oregon state is a Q1 win. Not all quad wins are created equal. They maybe need to break wins into 5 categories bc these low Q1 wins and low Q2 wins sometimes are iffy at best
 
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bac2therac

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also note the change...Oregon's win over Cal puts them in first right now and UCLA falls to a bubble team and losses the projected autobid status because of the tiebreak
 

bac2therac

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I was definitely surprised when he said Oregon state is a Q1 win. Not all quad wins are created equal. They maybe need to break wins into 5 categories bc these low Q1 wins and low Q2 wins sometimes are iffy at best

they actually do break it down even fiurther in the last weeks if you look at the warrennolan site.

however the committee knows that all Q1 wins are not equal...they know which teams are tourney teams and which teams are just okay middling schools
 
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RU MAN

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They’ve already beaten a few power conference teams that will dance (Florida and LSU) on neutral courts. Merrill is the kind of guy that can put them on his back, and they’ve got some great FT shooters to ice games away. I could see them being a dangerous ~11 seed if they get in.
No you're right. I think properly scouted, because they're no longer a secret, a tough defensive minded team like Rutgers or Penn State can really make their lives miserable.
 

gordel1

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1. Given RU is now at least 8 now behind the cut line. I wonder if RU pseudo clinched a bid last night?

2. Since USU has to play Wyoming now. I assume beating Wyoming does nothing for their resume?
 

Shell21

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So under palms logic , losses at Purdue and against Michigan on a nuetral court shouldn’t hurt us if we use Stanford logic . He makes it up as he goes along . so it’s ok to lose quad 1 games (somehow Oregon st is quad 1) , but if you lose them to top 25 teams if your Rutgers , you get penaliZed
 

kcg88

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1. Given RU is now at least 8 now behind the cut line. I wonder if RU pseudo clinched a bid last night?

2. Since USU has to play Wyoming now. I assume beating Wyoming does nothing for their resume?
This is the bright side. Nevada would have been a Q2 win, Wyoming is Q4.
 
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PSAL_Hoops

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Palm’s commentary on RI funny. He said it was a lot to ask for them to beat Dayton on their home floor, but getting blown out might be too much to overcome. Might?

I want Dayton to claim that auto bid, but if UMass can get it done in their next one vs Rhode Island (important game for us) and happens to win the 8/9 opener, it would be hard not to root for UMass to take them down. Boy would it be funny if an RU opponent claimed the auto bid in that crappy league. Palm would initially be at a loss for words but would recover quickly with a retort about how that loss didn’t count for UMass because it came at the RAC.
 

Shell21

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Exactly what I've been saying for weeks with this Palm and some of the other people that point to our road record. If its so hard to win on the road and a road win should count for so much, conversely shouldn't a home game be easy to win. Shouldn't a home loss be penalized a lot since its so hard to win on the road? Shouldn't a bad home loss (Washington for instance) crush a team like we are getting crushed for only winning 1 road game. Seems like Palm and others pick 1 metric and stick with it, but then don't use the opposite measure to penalize team as well
 

LeapinLou

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Just want to chime in to say I thought I was nuts about where we stand on the bubble. This thread shows that I'm "amateur hour" compared to some of you guys. When you have Bac posting minute by minute updates of the Utah State - New Mexico game, that is some serious March Madness.
 

PSAL_Hoops

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So under palms logic , losses at Purdue and against Michigan on a nuetral court shouldn’t hurt us if we use Stanford logic . He makes it up as he goes along . so it’s ok to lose quad 1 games (somehow Oregon st is quad 1) , but if you lose them to top 25 teams if your Rutgers , you get penaliZed
Right, funny. Except the irony is that the formula was designed to yield exactly the opposite result. Oregon State doesn’t have a prayer in the world of moving up to the NET top 30. So the quality of Stanford’s other home loss to them is stuck on Q2 and they picked up another Q1 loss.

RU is playing a team with NET 32. A win for Purdue, would propel them to top 30 which by default would give RU another Q1 win.
 

Erial_Lion

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2. Since USU has to play Wyoming now. I assume beating Wyoming does nothing for their resume?
On the flip side, when Utah St beats them tonight, that means that either their loss in the championship game is to SD ST which isn’t hurting them, or they are playing Boise for the championship which means the MWC is a two bid league anyway.