BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE FOR 3/6 PAGE 23

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If Saturday was any indication, this is going to be an insane two week full of surprises, heartbreak, dreams fulfilled and hearts broken. Comments and questions are always welcome. Tips are mandatory! Bare with any small errors or misspellings😉 Grab a beer and some chicken fingers or some coffee and cruller for you morning birds and jump in.

There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 22 at large locks leaving 14 available spots in the field. I am projecting 28 schools competing for those 14 open spots.


1 SEEDS
  • GONZAGA*
  • ARIZONA*
  • BAYLOR
  • KANSAS*

2 SEEDS
  • AUBURN*
  • KENTUCKY
  • TEXAS TECH
  • PURDUE

3 SEEDS
  • DUKE*
  • VILLANOVA
  • TENNESSEE
  • WISCONSIN*

4 SEEDS
  • PROVIDENCE*
  • ILLINOIS
  • UCLA
  • CONNECTICUT

5 SEEDS
  • HOUSTON *
  • ALABAMA
  • ARKANSAS
  • OHIO STATE

6 SEEDS
  • TEXAS
  • LSU
  • USC
  • SAINT MARY'S

7 SEEDS
  • MARQUETTE
  • IOWA STATE
  • BOISE STATE*
  • MICHIGAN STATE

8 SEEDS
  • IOWA
  • COLORADO STATE
  • SETON HALL
  • MURRAY STATE*

9 SEEDS

(36) XAVIER 17-11: Q1: 5-8, Q2: 4-2, SOS 25/126


It is rare that a school projected as lock as to be pulled back into the bubble picture but to cover our bases here, its best we pull back the Muskateers. XU has dropped 4 in a row and 5 of last 6 and sits just 7-10 in Big East play with just 2 games to go. The issue is the loss total is mounting. Two losses in its final two of at SJU and Gtown would put them just 4 games above 500 and in need of a Big East tourney run. I cannot imagine them losing to one of the worst schools in all of college basketball Georgetown at home but if they do they are in serious hurt. Do they need just that one...probably but their seeing will take a hit. Remember its body of work. There are really good things here. First the SOS is among the top of all schools on the bubble. 5 Quad 1 wins in 13 tries highlighted by wins over UConn and OOC to Ohio State. Other big in league wins were Marquette and a sweep of Creighton. Just one bad loss in Q3 vs De Paul.


(49) TCU 18-9: Q1: 5-6, Q2: 4-3, SOS: 27/275

Horned Frogs did it. They seemed on the verge of losing out in their gauntlet of game and bouncing out of the field but they came up with a huge feather in their cap win over Texas Tech. Even though the Q1 win total shows 5 and the combined Q1/2 mark is a fine 9-9, the issue is that the wins over schools like Oklahoma, Kansas State and WVU no longer carry the same weight as they did earlier in the season. The win over Texas Tech was their biggest but only their third against teams projected in the field joining the other quality wins over LSU and Iowa State. TCU does not have a big quality road win so thats an issue though the win at Texas A&M is starting to look better. With two back to back games against Kansas, the Frogs cannot rest easy. No shame in losing those games but its going to make the trip to West Virginia in the season finale close to a must win. Without that they move back dangerously to the cut line and need to pick up a quality win in the Big 12 tourney to improve their chances.


(46) NOTRE DAME 20-8: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-1, SOS: 66/27

Admittedly the numbers are weak for the Irish. Just 2-6 in Quad 1 games and 5-7 vs Q1/2 is not where a bubble school should be. Yes they have 20 wins, yes they are in 2nd place in the ACC but this is speaking more to the weakness of the ACC than anything else. With just Duke as a sure thing in this league there are a total of 5 bubble ACC schools and Notre Dame seems the least offensive of the 5 for now. Its the win over Kentucky that seperates them. That is the kind of win that is worth at least 2 wins. Note the wins over fellow bubbles UNC and at Miami. On the flip side losses to other bubbles like Indiana, Wake, Va Tech and Texas A&M really shows the mixed bag on the resume. To their advantage there is just one miscue and that is to BC. The schedule stuff is stronger than most on the bubble. For them the past few weeks has been about navigating the weak ACC and avoiding bad losses. If they continue to do so in the final 2 at FSU and home to Pitt, it should be enough to get them in. Honestly even one slip up and they still should be okay, albeit moving toward the first four games. Lose both and all bets are off.


(39) WYOMING 22-5: Q1: 4-3, Q2: 5-0, Q3: 3-2, SOS: 101/179

Not been overly impressed with the Cowboys' resume but they seem to be riding the coattails of the other strong profiles in the MWC and you have to give them credit, they have only lost 5 times. Last weeks loss to Colorado State bounced them out of first place and this week brings up a huge bubble matchup at home vs San Diego State. A win here and at least splitting the final two of at UNLV and Fresno will lock the Cowboys in. A loss and then a loss in one of those final 2 and that is where Wyoming will be in some trouble requiring a run in the MWC tourney. The resume only shows those two home wins over Colorado State and Boise State. The best OOC win is Northern Iowa. There are two Q3 losses here to Stanford and New Mexico and the SOS numbers are sort of wobbly. Going to have to prove it.


10 SEEDS

(45) DAVIDSON* 23-4: Q1: 2-1, Q2: 3-3, SOS: 154/224


Davidson is the projected AQ from the A10 and will be considered as an at large if they fail to win the A10 tourney. Wildcats lead the A10 which only has one school in for now but there is a good chance that becomes two. Its not an overwhelming profile but if they can lock up the regular season A10 title that will go along way toward securing an at large regardless of who wins the A10 tourney. Still 18 of their 23 wins are to Q3 and 4 schools. The win over Alabama is nice but does that make an at large case. Wins over VCU and St Bonnies are decent but they are not even teams projected in. The best you can say is no bad losses. If they can avoid one vs George Mason though and then gain a Q1 win at Dayton that would probably be enough to state their case.


(67) CREIGHTON 19-9: Q1: 5-5, Q2: 3-3, SOS: 40/206

Despite 5 Q1 wins, the Bluejays overall NET continues to sag and their 21 point loss to Providence did not help that. A rough stretch to finish the year with home games vs SHU and UConn. Pretty simple, get one of those and they are in. Lose both and they will find themselves in a must win situation to pick up a quality victory in the Big East tourney. Pretty good wins here...Villanova, UConn and a sweep over Marquette. Nice to have that win over BYU in their back pocket as well. The losses to Butler and ASU do hurt somewhat. Big week ahead to determine their fate


(62) MIAMI 20-9: Q1: 4-1, Q2: 4-5, Q3: 7-3, SOS: 76/137

Losses to distant bubbles Virginia and Virginia Tech are dinging a resume that already had some warts. Now with 3 Quad 3 losses plus a sketchy Quad 2 loss to Florida State, the Hurricanes profile continues to show a mixed bag. No one can take that marquee win at Duke. The sweep of Wake was important and the win over UNC also nice to have vs a bubble. The win over CUSA leader North Texas is looking better by the minute. Canes seem to have enough wins to get them in but the margin of error for bad losses has shrunk. Two road games at BC and Syracuse finish the regular season and they really cannot afford to slip up in any of them or they will have to do something of note in the ACC tourney. Seen schools like this play their way out of the tourney from a seemingly good spot.


(48) WAKE FOREST 22-8: Q1: 1-4, Q2: 4-4, SOS: 94/336

The loss at Clemson last week was costly even if it was not outside Q2. With a resume that shows only one Quad 1 win and just 5-8 in Q1/2 games, the Deacons need to get every win they can. 22 wins for a ACC school would seem to make them a shoe in but the league is so weak this year, Wake's wins are not even moving the needle. The only thing they have going for them is wins vs Notre Dame and UNC but note they were swept by bubble Miami. The win over Va Tech is a Quad 1 but does it even count as a quality win. 17 of their 22 wins are to Q3/4. Its tough to wrap your mind around that mark but you see that 336 SOS mark. I see Wake's profile eerily similar to that of NC State's from a few years back. The season finale vs NCState will only move the needle in the wrong direction with a loss. Might Wake still need a win in the ACC quarters possibly against Miami to assure themselves a bid...probably. A lot can go wrong here.


11 SEEDS


(40) NORTH TEXAS 20-4: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-2, SOS: 141/63


North Texas is the projected AQ from Conference USA and will be considered for an at large bid if they do not win the CUSA tournament. The Mean Green have won 12 in a row and 18 of their last 19. Their at large prospects are uncertain but if they can navigated their final two conference road games and make it at least to the CUSA semis they will be right there. Their non conference sos is helping their metrics. Losses to Kansas and Miami and a win over Wichita. A split with UAB and one bad Q3 loss to Buffalo. Might be a favorable alternative to one of the 3 bloated Big 10 bubble schools.


(37) MICHIGAN 15-12: Q1: 4-8, Q2: 2-3, R/N: 6-8, SOS: 9/26

Wolverines moving up and down the bubble pecking order the past two weeks. Avoiding the first four for now, its a very precarious spot they are in. Their issue right now centers around the loss total. Its now 12 and UM needs to keep themselves at least 4 games above 500 if they want to nail down a bid. Compounding matters is the tough schedule to end the year with games vs Michigan State, Iowa and at Ohio State. Likely they need two of these 3 to feel secure but also a Big 10 tourney win. Looking at the nitty gritty, there is good stuff here and look at that fine SOS of 9. Plus there are wins over Purdue, at Iowa, at Indiana. Then a really important win over bubble San Diego State and recently over bubble Rutgers. Those are the kind of wins that get you in the tourney. Yet that 6-11 mark vs Q1/2 really shows how much the losses are an issue. If they drop 2 of 3, they are going to need a DEEP Big 10 tourney run. They control their own destiny this week.


(28) SAN FRANCISCO 22-8: Q1: 3-5, Q2: 5-2, Q4: 9-1 , SOS: 80/136

Dons were not able to take down Gonzaga to give them that much needed marquee win to lock themselves in before the WCC tourney and now are set up for a ginormous bubble matchup with BYU in the WCC quarters. USF loses the third seed to Santa Clara so that means its the 4/5 spot which means Gonzaga could await in the semis. A win over BYU likely locks them in. A loss and all bets are off. Its an okay profile but the NET seems inflated here. Not sure the WCC can pull off 4 and remember BYU and USF split the series this year. San Fran's next biggest win A10 AQ Davidson and there is that Q4 loss to Portland that they could regret and that Q2 loss to Grand Canyon is dangerously close to being Q3. Went 0-4 vs the top 2 in league. Yes they are 8-7 vs Q1/2 but the committee is likely to dig deeper to just who those schools are and the reality is that the Dons have just two wins over schools in the field and will have amassed 9 losses before Selection Sunday. A lot on the line this week.


(44) INDIANA 18-10: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 3-4, R/N: 4-7, SOS: 47/317

Hoosier's avoided what would have been a crushing loss by holding on at Minnesota. It was a Q2 win and at least it helps improve the murky 6-10 mark in Q1/2 games. Indiana faces almost a must win in a huge game vs Rutgers which is basically bubble play in game for both before the Big 10 tournament. Win and Indiana is still in the field before championship week but hardly safe Lose and it means Indiana will have to win at Purdue to get them back into the field before the Big 10 tourney. Their case is a bit lacking. Yes a marquee win over Purdue and the wins over Ohio State and bubble Notre Dame very solid but its not enough at this point. Its likely whatever happens this week, Indiana will still need to come up with a win of note in the Big 10 tourney and that could mean facing bubbles Michigan or Rutgers again. At least a positive is that Indiana has a clean resume right now with no losses outside of Q2 and even a loss to RU which would be Q3 will not be considered a bad loss. On the negative side, that SOS of 317 OOC combined with that 4-7 road mark is troublesome along the cutline. Big 10 has 9 bubble schools but it is pretty likely that only 8 or less will make it.


12 SEEDS


(40) NORTH CAROLINA 21-8: Q1: 1-7, Q2: 4-0, Q4: 5-1, SOS: 62/35


As mentioned before, the ACC is not providing quality win opportunities and the UNC nitty gritty is the prime example. A whopping 11 of their wins are in Q3. A wretched 1-7 mark vs Q1 and that one win Va Tech is just a fringe bubble. The Q1/2 mark is still a wobbly 5-7. I know they played a tough non conference schedule at 35 but they only have a win over Michigan to show for it. Losses to Kentucky, Tennessee and Purdue. Double digit losses to ACC bubbles Wake and Miami in their only meetings. A loss to ND in their only meeting. The unbalanced ACC schedule not exactly helping them. A Quad 4 loss to Pitt is probably one they want to have back. Imperative for them to take care of business vs Syracuse. Then drama awaits with a trip to Duke in Coach K's last game at Cameron. A win there will obviously vault them in as a lock. However without that game, the Tar Heels will still need to advance to the ACC semis as an opening round quarterfinal loss would leave them extremely vulnerable to the bubble around them. No the name or win total will not be enough to get them in down stretch.


(50) BYU 19-9: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 5-3, Q4: 9-1, SOS: 63/97

The Cougars were looking to schedule a late non conference road game to help their resume but does not look like that will materialize. Pretty clear what the Cougars have to do to get into the NCAA tourney. Win that first round WCC game vs Loyola/Pacific and then beat San Francisco in the aforementioned bubble buster game. There are 9 Quad1/2 wins here and while not all of them really move the needle, the 4 they have do....St Mary's, San Fran and two wins over bubbles San Diego State and Oregon, the latter a 32 point beatdown. The NET number does not say it but this profile is better than San Francisco's if it comes down to it. Yes there is that hideous Q4 loss to Pacific but San Fran has one too. Can BYU stay in the field with a loss to the Dons? That will be pretty tough. A 4th school from WCC vs a 2nd from A10 or a 2nd from the AAC is not a good prospect. High drama in Vegas this week.


(83) RUTGERS 16-12: Q1: 5-5, Q2: 3-4, R/N: 3-9, SOS: 32/296

Rutgers oh Rutgers what have you done? After a scintillating 4 game stretch of beating ranked schools, the Scarlet Knights dropped 3 straight included a critical loss at home to Wisconsin which left them in must win mode for their final 2 games at Indiana and Penn State. As mentioned before the Indiana game is a "win and in for now"/"loss and out for now" game. RU has 7 wins vs teams in the field...Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan. The quality wins are more than enough to make the field. The Indiana win would be important on 3 fronts...would give them a desperately needed road win pushing that number up to 4, would be a 2nd quality road win, would give them a 6th quad 1 win and quite frankly would put the Knights ahead of Indiana in any bubble pecking order heading into the Big 10 tourney. Of course Rutgers would also need to beat Penn State to close the year. That would put them at 18-12/12-8 in the Big 10 and yes conference mark is not a consideration. Its a high chance RU would dance even without an additional win in the Big 10 tourney although that becomes hazier if they are slotted against Michigan or Indiana. Its likely that 12-8 mark would mean they would finish 6th or 7th and a good chance of avoiding those schools. Not going to find any bubble school 6-5 in Quad 1 nor with 7 or maybe even 8 wins vs teams in the field. Ignore the NET for now...yes at 83 it reflects RU's poor OOC, poor road performance and poor 6-4 mark including a couple of horrid losses to UMass and Lafayette. What the Scarlet Knights are fighting now is a loss mark that is getting out of hand. RU now with 12 losses, 4 games above 500 is a dangerous position and not a lot of schools get selected with that mark and those that do almost always have a strong OOC schedule which RU simply does not have. Any loss in the final 2 games means RU will have 14 losses to end the season. Yes there are scenarios where RU can lose to Indiana and then Penn State and perhaps pick off Indiana in the Big 10 tourney first round that puts them at 18-13 heading into game with Wisconsin or Purdue or Illinois. RU likely would have to win that game. In that scenario of 19-14, RU will dance no question about it. Should they lose at 18-14, that's going to be a real bubblicious scenario where RU will definitely be considered but its still less than 50/50 to get in. It will then be up the mercy of the committee and we have no idea what they will value and how much emphasis they will place on 7 wins vs teams in the field vs the poor road mark, 14 losses and those 2 really bad losses. So again a loss to Indiana still would not eliminate RU, it just makes it much tougher. As for seeding, even with 2 wins, RU still could be placed in the First Four games, that is where the overall NET will hurt theme. I think really the only definitive path to avoid the first 4 games would be for RU to get to 20 wins and make the Big 10 semis although 2 wins and a Big 10 tourney just might be enough to pull them to a regular 11 seed. As said before its body of work, those RU fans complaining about how you finish should be taken into consideration well as you see that is a double edged sword and ironic since the Knights are stacking losses late in the year. Remember the selection committee has the quirks and biases. There are always surprises thrown that make you scratch your head. At this point with this profile it would not be surprising to see the committee go either way with Rutgers in a positive or negative direction. Bracketologists do not sit on the committee. Many think they know what the committee is thinking. Its a total guess and usually there is one move the committee makes that defies an explanation. Rutgers has put themselves in a situation where its going to be in the committee's hands and as I have explained before when it comes to scheduling and winning road games, you want to hit all your checkmarks and not give the committee the power to take matters into their own hands.


(30) SAN DIEGO STATE 18-7: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 2-0, R/N: 5-6, SOS: 74/87

It's a clean profile for the Aztecs but at the moment it is really lacking considering 13 of its 18 wins are to Q3/4. The NET profile has risen to 30 so that is a help. The Mountain West has its 4th school projected in the field but a lot could go wrong here. Tough loss at Boise State last week but big opportunity tonight at bubble Wyoming. Is it a must for them? At this point I think it is. A loss tonight puts them on the cut line of last in or out and with A10 and AAC bubbles lurking that would be an uncomfortable place to sit. The final 2 of Fresno State and Nevada will not build their profile and even with a win tonight they would do themselves well to take care of business anyhow in those games. Now that neutral site with over St Mary's is looking much better with the Gaels win over Gonzaga. There is also that 30 point drubbing of Colorado State but that is really it. That win over Fresno State is a Q1 but will not fool anyone nor the Q1 loss to Utah State. Note the loss to bubble Michigan and BYU. Might have to do some damage in the Mountain West tourney play.


SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
IONA*


13 SEEDS

*CHATANOOGA*
*NEW MEXICO STATE*
*TOLEDO*
*NORTHERN IOWA*


14 SEEDS

VERMONT*
TEXAS STATE*
PRINCETON*
MONTANA STATE"


15 SEEDS

COLGATE*
UNC WILMINGTON*
JACKSONVILLE STATE*
CLEVELAND STATE*


16 SEEDS

LONGWOOD*
LONG BEACH STATE*
NORFOLK STATE*
TEXAS SOUTHERN*
BRYANT*
NICHOLLS STATE*



BUBBLE OUT


(47) SMU 20-7: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 4-3, Q3: 6-1, Q4: 8-1, R/N: 6-7, SOS: 102/288


No harm in losing at Houston but it was enough to bounce them out of my projections for now. Despite the stunningly wrong NET which puts Houston at 3, the AAC just has not had a strong profile nationally this year. Beyond Houston and Memphis, the Mustangs have not had an opportunity to pick up quality wins. The OOC mark of 288 is a strong negative. Should wins over Dayton and Vandy move the needle? The best thing for them is they swept Memphis and beat Houston earlier. Unfortunately they also have some questionable losses that dent this profile enough mainly the Q3 loss to Missouri and the Q4 loss to Loyola Marymount. At the end of the day, those Q2 losses to Cincy, Wichita and Temple might be one too many. Going to be mandatory that SMU takes care of Cincy and Tulane at home but it really looks like its going to come down to another matchu with Memphis where beating the Tigers for a third team might be the tonic to give the AAC that 2nd bid.


(58) OREGON 17-11: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 4-2, Q3: 3-3, R/N: 5-6, SOS: 74/87

Ducks saved their season by picking up a huge quad 1 win over UCLA but suffered a crushing final seconds loss vs USC. That prevented a season sweep of both UCLA/USC which would have placed the Ducks in the field and probably beyond the first 4. That is just how close they were. Now they will have to play desperate. That means sweeping the Washington schools which are two Q2 games. Beyond that it is going to come down to the Pac 12 tourney which always so unpredictable and full of surprises. Oregon could easily win IMO. At the moment look like they are set for the 4/5 line and could actually get the 4 which is double bye, however with Colorado in the 5 spot, it means Oregon first shot at a quality win would be to take down top seeded Arizona. In this scenario, the Ducks luckily dance warts and all. Can they get in without beating Arizona, maybe? but do they really want to find out? A total mixed bag thus far, the 3 wins over UCLA/USC yet the 32 point loss to BYU, a beatdown over SMU yet 3 quadrant 3 losses, the most embarrassing of which to California. Oregon and Rutgers have a lot in common.


(42) MEMPHIS 17-9: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 3-4, Q3: 7-2, R/N:5-7, SOS: 75/65

Tigers took care of business this past week but those wins did not help their stock either. Along with SMU finding themselves just out of the field. If SMU is not in, how could Memphis be in over them after losing to them 2x. For Memphis their profile is riding on the win at Houston and the early season win over Alabama. Digging deeper it really is not that impressive given three Q3 losses to Georgia and EastCarolina and sketchy Q2 losses to the likes of Ole Miss and Tulane. Big week for them, they must handle a bad USF on the road and then another matchup with Houston. A season sweep of the #3 rated school in the NET will go along way and would bounce them in the field headed into the AAC tourney and yet its likely their fate could reside in a third matchup with SMU in the AAC semis. If they cannot beat Houston though in the finale, they would do themselves well to just win the whole damn AAC tourney.


(31) LOYOLA CHICAGO 21-7: Q1: 3-2, Q2: 2-4, SOS: 115/45

Suddenly after yet another loss not only are the Ramblers knocked out of the AQ spot in the Missouri Valley which now goes to Northern Iowa but their at large hopes are in a huge heap of trouble. Make no mistake about it, not winning the regular season title may have been the fatal blow to the Sister Junes of Loyola. Incredibly seeded 4th in the MVC tourney, it really shows how many losses they have in this conference...2 losses to Drake and a loss to Drake. 5 MVC losses total. They could be forgiven if they actually did something OOC but one win over bubble San Francisco does not put you into the tournament. Do not be fooled but the NET of 31 nor that Vandy and Missouri State are Q1 wins. Their only hope right now is to make the MVC finals and hope its Missouri State they lose to and hope the bubble crumbles around them and trutfully its a pretty tragic bubble at this point. Yet their best hope is just win the MVC tourney which they are more than capable of and they would have the opportunity to become a dangerous 11 or 12 seed.


(79) SAINT BONAVENTURE 19-7: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 3-3, SOS: 106/82

Lots of chatter about the A10 getting a 2nd school. Truthfully the weakness of the power conference schools around the bubble have allowed the A10 bubbles to float upward. Obviously while Davidson is the league leader they are hardly unbeatable and the A10 tourney could be won by any number of schools. Davidson has a pretty good shot as an at large though no sure thing, yet it might be the only way they really get two schools in. Due to their overall NET, Bonaventure's profile is being slept on. Consider the wins over MWC AQ Boise State and Marquette, these are outstanding non conference wins for a high mid major. Fairly decent OOC scheduling...losses to Va Tech and UConn. That loss to Northern Iowa is Q3 but they are MVC AQ. In league they did beat VCU and swept St Louis but lost to Dayton and Davidson. Important week to state their case. On the road at VCU is a Q1 opportunity before a home finale with Richmond. Two wins here could help bump that 79 NET ranking up a more reasonable level, If any school gets that 2nd bid from the A10 its going to be the Bonnies and it would be because they earned it.


(53) VCU 20-7: Q1: 3-2, Q2: 3-4, SOS: 93/67

Pedestrian is an apt way to describe this resume. They clearly do not have the non conference stuff that elevates the Bonnies' resume. The Rams have won 7 in a row against of the most mediocre and awful competition you will find. It gets tougher in the final two with an almost bubble elimination game vs St Bonaventure and then a dangerous game at St Louis. Should the Rams win both they likely sit on the first four out line somewhere inching closer and closer to the field. Yet I still feel its going to take more to vault them in and I suppose they can beat a Dayton for a quality win in the A10 semis and lose to Davidson in the finals and hope they get the nod over a bloated Big 10 school. Very tough to argue that a win over Davidson and another over fringe bubble Dayton should earn you a NCAA bid.


(51) FLORIDA 18-11: Q1: 2-8, Q2: 4-2, Q4: 7-1, R/N: 6-7, SOS: 48/219

Gators failed to follow up that rousing win over Auburn as they fell to Arkansas a week ago. With just 2 Quad 1 wins...Auburn and Ohio State, UF is running out of time. The 6-10 mark vs Q1/2 shows losses to bubbles Texas A&M, losses to the likes of Oklahoma who are not really in the running anymore plus losses to Ole Miss and Maryland plus a Quad 4 loss to Texas Southern, Just too many losses. Vandy on the road up first and a loss could be fatal. Kentucky at home awaits in the season finale, without that win, its likely they need a SEC tourney final run, even with that win they likely might need another win over a top 4 SEC school in the quarters. A ton of work to do.


(41) VIRGINIA TECH 18-11: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 4-4, Q3: 6-2, SOS: 85/132

Hokies picked up their first Q1 win of the season at Miami over the weekend at least get them to the last 8 out grouping. Winners of 8 of 9, they simply have to keep winning all the way through the ACC tourney. It is a thread the needle type journey for them but at least now they can map out a path. Louisville and Clemson are must wins to close the year but do nothing really to help them. Its the ACC tourney where honestly nothing less than a trip to the finals would put them in. Look slated for a 5, 6, or 7 seed meaning they will get a Q1 opportunity vs a ACC bubble in the quarters but will also get a Q1 opportunity in the semis. With just 1 Q1 win at that subpar 5-9 mark vs Q2 nothing short of that will work. The only other win vs field besides Miami was Notre Dame and note many losses to bubbles UNC, Memphis, Dayton, Wake. The 2 Q3 losses cannot be overlooked either given the lack of beef on the resume

(52) MISSISSIPPI STATE 17-12: Q1: 2-8, Q2: 2-2, Q3: 7-2, R/N: 3-10, SOS: 46/175

Somehow the Tigers have a solid NET rating at 52 despite a woeful nitty gritty. Just 4-10 vs Q1/2, Home wins over Alabama and Arkansas but little else to point too and its not a clean resume with 2 Q3 losses to Minnesota and Louisville. Plus two questionable Q2 losses to Ole Miss and SC. Just too many losses and those are the kind of losses you cannot have if you are trying to present an at large resume. Yet stunningly still in it because of 2 Q1 opportunities to close the season. Auburn at home and Texas A&M on the road. Win both and then we could talk because that NET is going to move near 40 where a strong SEC run could put them in play.

(66) TEXAS A&M 17-11: Q1: 2-9, Q2: 2-0, Q3: 5-2, R/N: 6-7, SOS: 55/257

The Aggies are this years Zombie bubble school. After a 14-2 start they were left for dead after losing 8 in a row. Yet 3 wins in their last 4 at least as their light flickering. Whether that continues rests with getting a mandatory win at Alabama and then beating Mississippi State in the regular season finale. In this scenario they could match themselves up with a top seed in the quarters and a win there will put them play probably needing another quality win in the semis. Longshot yes, chance yes. Clinging to wins over Arkansas, Notre Dame and Florida right now but that is not enough, 2-9 vs Q1 and 4-9 Q1/2 with 2 Q3 losses is exactly why they are on the fringes.


(48) OKLAHOMA 15-14: Q1: 3-11, Q2: 5-2, R/N: 5-9, SOS: 4/144

Best we can say about the Sooners is that their win in overtime over Oklahoma State keeps them on life support. Just too many losses and not enough quality wins....though wins over Texas Tech, Arky, Florida and Iowa State are pretty good along the outside of the bubble. At 15-14, it is an extremely narrow path. Their next loss before the Big 12 finals eliminates any chance. No school has ever received a NCAA bid with 15 losses. If they do this they will become the first. Here it is...win vs WVU and at Kansas St to get to 17-14....beat top 3 school in quarters, beat another top 3 school in the Semis. Win or lose in the Big 12 finals they will dance...record would be 19-15 and that would do it with 3 more quad wins including two granddaddy wins added. I know it would only put them at 10-13 vs Q1/2 but that would be enough. Are they up to that....likely no but they can always dream.


(81) VIRGINIA 17-12: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 4-1, Q3: 3-5, SOS: 57/133

A crushing hail mary 3 with one second left might have realistically burst the Cavs bubble. The loss at home to FSU was their 5th Q3 loss. It will be virtually impossible to overcome. Its hardly their worst of the season but just too many...Clemson, NCState, James Madison, and Navy. At this point the feather in their cap wins over Duke and Providence seem like aberattion. While they do also have a sweep at Miami and a win over Va Tech time appears to have really run out. Just a game at Louisville left and then the ACC tourney. Much like Va Tech, they would need a run to the finals, unlike Va Tech the NET rating is so poor and there seems to be no getting around those 5 Q3 losses. Might just have to win it all.


(55) DAYTON 20-9: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 5-3, Q3: 4-1, Q4: 9-3, SOS: 125/134

Despite their3 Quad 4 losses, the Flyers were making a late run and were in the mix because of their solid OOC performance showing wins over projected 1 seed Kansas plus wins over Miami, VaTech and Belmont. Everything came to a halt with a stunning one point loss to lowly La Salle which counts as a Q3 loss but was a Q4 loss at the time. How could this happen they were playing so well? Well cannot go to the NCAA losing to the likes of Lipscomb, UMass Lowell, Austin Peay and La Salle. That is without winning the A10 tourney which they Flyers could possibly do.


(77) COLORADO 19-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 4-2, Q3: 4-2, SOS: 78/328

Begrudgingly, the Buffaloes enter the bubble netherworld, I mean 19-10 in the Pac 12, surely there must be some quality wins to fish through. Well yeah that unlikely win over one seed Arizona puts them here and a decent enough win over Oregon but geez this resume is like a Wendy's commericial....WHERE'S THE BEEF?! The non conference scheduling was trash rated at 328 and the best non conference win was actually over a projected NCAA team Montana State. 9 of 19 wins to Quad 4 is no bueno. Only path is to knock off Utah in the finale, beat Oregon and then Arizona in the Pac 12 tourney and try to become the Oregon State of 2022.



FIRST FOUR BYES

WAKE FOREST
MICHIGAN
SAN FRANCISCO
INDIANA



LAST FOUR IN


SAN DIEGO STATE
RUTGERS
BYU
NORTH CAROLINA



FIRST FOUR OUT

SMU
OREGON
MEMPHIS
LOYOLA CHICAGO



NEXT FOUR OUT

SAINT BONAVENURE
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
FLORIDA
VIRGINIA TECH
 
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Plum Street

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What happens with a loss to Indiana , a win against Penn state and 1-1 in the BIG tournament ?
 

bac2therac

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Out imo.

itd basically mean a win vs psu and Nw and a loss to IU (who prob leaps us as a bubble competitor if we lose)

Hopefully Ru would be 8/9..we would be playing Michigan or Indiana..thats a q1 win

Ru has a first round bye..they arent in the 11th-14 games. Our 2nd round opponent would be big 10 champ

Though thats assuming Mich goes 11-9 and gets the tiebreaker. Also MSU figures to be in the mix too so yes RU could be pushed up to 7 even at 11-9. There is a possibility of even 6
 
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RU23

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I’m surprised Fruit’s not better. I think their starters are very good, just have zero depth.
 

RU23

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Thoughts on South Dakota State? I see you have them as a 12 after they won all 18 games in their pitiful conference - can they afford a loss in their tournament? Really no good wins on their resume.

They're shooting over 45% from 3 btw….next best in the country is Purdue at under 40%, and SD St. has taken more three’s than Purdue.
 

bac2therac

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Thoughts on South Dakota State? I see you have them as a 12 after they won all 18 games in their pitiful conference - can they afford a loss in their tournament? Really no good wins on their resume.

They're shooting over 45% from 3 btw….next best in the country is Purdue at under 40%, and SD St. has taken more three’s than Purdue.

No at large chance but a definite chance to win a game if they get there

Murray St yes

Davidson maybe
 
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RUEd

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#45 on UNC with the man bun and beard looks like he’s thirty five years old
 

RU23

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Syracuse pissed away the game of Swider’s life - UNC is now in even if they lose out imo.

Like I said earlier fruit has good starters zero depth (I know they lost a starter for the season)
 
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Scangg

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I think I asked this before and no one answered... maybe no one knows...

How many "bid stealers" on average are there each year?

Just trying to get an idea. I realize each year is different and can't really predict
 

Greene Rice FIG

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I think I asked this before and no one answered... maybe no one knows...

How many "bid stealers" on average are there each year?

Just trying to get an idea. I realize each year is different and can't really predict
Going to say about 1. I always give a higher amount and bac says no and he ends up getting it right
 
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kcg88

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I think I asked this before and no one answered... maybe no one knows...

How many "bid stealers" on average are there each year?

Just trying to get an idea. I realize each year is different and can't really predict
1-2. Last year with Georgetown and Oregon State was unusual especially at the high major level.
 

kcg88

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Texas Tech down 9 at home to Kansas State. Could the Wildcats could actually climb back into the conversation? ... Probably not. At best they could get to 16-14. They'd probably need two games in the conference tournament as I don't think 17-15 gets them in. So still not really a big deal imo.
 

kyk1827

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San diego st is on fire in the first half at wyoming. 9/13 from 3. SD St winning would be very bad for bubble teams
 

bac2therac

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San diego st is on fire in the first half at wyoming. 9/13 from 3. SD St winning would be very bad for bubble teams


true although they are in as of today in most brackets....if this holds, it will call Wyoming's resume into question, if the Cowboys lose to UNLV they are in trouble