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BAC'S NCAA Bubble Analysis and First Pecking Order: 2/27/17

bac2therac

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Okay grab a cup of java and spend sometime getting to know the 2017 NCAA tourney bubble

32 Autobids

ACC: North Carolina
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
AMERICAN: SMU
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
ATLANTIC TEN: Dayton
BIG 10: Purdue
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: North Dakota
BIG SOUTH: Winthrop
BIG WEST: UC Davis
COLONIAL: North Carolina Wilmington
CUSA: Middle Tennessee State
HORIZON: Oakland
IVY: Princeton
MAAC: Monmouth
MIDAMERICAN: Akron
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MISSOURI VALLEY: Wichita State
MOUNTAIN WEST: Nevada
NORTHEAST: Mount St Mary's
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PATRIOT: Bucknell
PAC 12: Oregon
SEC: Kentucky
SOUTHERN: UNC Greensboro
SOUTHLAND: New Orleans
SUN BELT: Texas Arlington
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: South Dakota
WAC: CSU Bakersfield
WCC: Gonzaga


22 Projected At Large Locks: Cincinnati, Louisville, Duke, Virginia, Florida State, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Butler, Creighton, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, Arizona, UCLA, Florida, South Carolina, St Mary's

That takes care of 54 of the 68 available spots. That leaves 14 spots open. I have identified 30 schools on or near the bubble. Here is the pecking order....


IN

1. (40) MICHIGAN STATE 18-11: Yesterday's dominating win over Wisconsin all but wraps up an at large bid for Sparty. Going to keep them just outside a lock for now but still cannot see a likely scenerio where they get left out. Now 6-7 vs top 50 and an impressive 11-10 vs top 100. The two wins over Minnesota are looking better by the minute. Other conference wins vs NCAA likelys Michigan and Northwestern and that fine OOC win over Wichita State bolster the resume. Trips to Illinois and Maryland will be tough and a win in either or one Big 10 tourney win makes it academic.


2. (46) MICHIGAN 19-10: Red hot Michigan has won 5 of 6 and taken down 3 tourney schools in Wisconsin, MSU, and most recently the impressive win over Purdue over the weekend. That was the win that puts the Wolverines like MSU is the all but a lock catagory. Everything is good to go with the rpi nitty gritty.....4-7 vs top 50 and a whopping 11-10 vs top 100. Strong OOC wins over SMU and Marquette and no losses to a team outside the top 100. Road trips to Northwesternand Nebraska left for them but the feeling is enough cushion has been built up regardless of the outcome of those games.


3. (50) NORTHWESTERN 20-9: Cats struggling toward the end of the year as the pressure of securing the school's first NCAA bid ever is mounting. The Indiana loss was heartbreaking because they had the game won and it was their 5th loss in 7 games. More importantly is that the Cats just are not playing well and that does not bode well for home games vs Michigan and Purdue. It is not panic time yet because a win in one of those game will in all likelihood lock them in. Their profile still is significantly above that of teams hanging around the 68 line. 3-6 vs top 50 is just okay but the 9-9 mark vs top 100 is strong. OCC wins over Dayton and Wake are quite solid. In league less impressive but that win at Wisconsin was huge. The SOS is a middling 76 but we can also point that Northwestern does not have a bad loss..no losses outside the top 100. Their worst loss was Indiana. Note the two losses to Illinois which could come into play if the Illini make a late run.


4. (23) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 23-6: The loss to Rhody knocked the Rams out of first in the A10 but VCU has a chance to redeem themselves with a win at Dayton. A win there will lock them in the tourney no doubt as well as giving them the #1 seed in the A10 tourney. A loss and there could be some uncertainty if they do not beat George Mason and win at least a game in the A10 tourney. With a SOS of just 71, the top 50 rpi stuff is lacking..just 2-2. A win over Dayton and a very good win over Middle Tennessee State but would like to see more here. 7-4 vs top 100 is better but made up of a lot of mediocre A10 schools. 3 of their losses were to bubbles Georgia Tech, Illinois, and URI. They would do well not to let the committee find a reason to leave them out.


5. (27) XAVIER 18-11: Not often that a schools gets moved from the lock catagory back onto the bubble but Xavier seems to be a school on the skids. 5 straight losses...all to tourney likely schools or bubbles are not bad losses per se but their overall profile is taking a serious dent. The Muskateers have just one top 25 win....Creighton, are just 3-8 vs top 50....SHU/Wake Forest....suddenly the wins do not stand out against a crowded Big East bubble field. The 8-10 mark is certainly okay enough at this level but beyond the win over PC, the wins are not against tourney caliber schools. Huge game looms at home vs Marquette. Win that game and Xavier will have calmed the seas for now, but a loss and serious concerns get raised meaning they will likely have to find a win of quality in the Big East to keep themselves in the field.


6. (48) SETON HALL 18-10: Pirates have done the exact opposite of Xavier. Pirates have moved themselves way up with the pecking order with their recent wins over Xavier and Creighton. They avoided the slipup at De Paul and need to avoid one over Georgetown. Of course winning at Butler would lock them in but a trip to the BE semis would also do the trip. 3-6 vs top 50 is okay but 8-9 vs top 100 is very good. Very good OOC over So Carolina, nice wins over Cal and Iowa. Split with fellow bubbles Marquette and Providence but think the Pirates' are slightly ahead of those schools right now. Still the uncertainty with 4 Big East teams on the bubble and the question of whether the league can really get 7 schools in when all is said and done means they cannot breath safe yet.


7. (36) USC 21-8: Trojans suffered a costly lost to lowly ASU last night blowing a double digit lead that gave them their only loss outside the top 100. Its the 4th straight loss for USC and it starts to raise questions about their profile Certainly the win OOC over SMU and the in league win over crosstown rival UCLA are big time quality but beyond that you ask "where is the beef?' A win over BYU certainly looks better today but a 2-5 mark vs top 50 and 5-7 mark vs top 100 are pretty sketchy for a Power 5 school. While the top of the Pac 12 has been strong, the middle and bottom has been pretty weak. The Trojans will benefit from the respect the top is getting but only if they are able to handle bottom feeding schools like Washington and WSU in the last two. It will not give them quality wins but it will at least not give the committee reasons to leave them out. Would suggest that they make their way to the Pac 12 semis for security's sake.


8. (75) SYRACUSE 17-13: Much like last year, the Orange are the most controversial bubble team. Last year many thought that they should not have received an at large bid but they did have a strong top 50/100 profile that seemed to negate the bad losses. This year almost the same type of resume..some great wins and some bad losses (BC/SJU/UConn). 3 top 25 wins, 6-7 vs top 50 is extremely strong and the 8-10 vs top 100 is solid. The big wins are Duke and FSU but the Miami, Virgina, Monmouth and Wake wins are very good complimentary wins. This time the bubble is much softer...on the other hand the sheer amount of losses could come into play as well as that awful 2-10 road/neutral mark. No team with 15 losses has received an at large bid to the NCAA tourney. Not sure that Cuse can afford a loss to Georgia Tech in its regular season finale and then another in the ACC tourney. Beat Georgia Tech and they will be in good shape. Lose and its really up to what they do in the ACC tourney and how the bubble around them shakes up.


9. (29) ARKANSAS 22-7: Razorbacks doing the thing they need to keep doing which is win. They have not accumulated a whole lot of quality wins...just 3-5 vs top 50...at Vandy/SC and Tex Arlington OOC, but they are now up to 11-5 in the SEC and have amassed 10 rpi top 100 wins along the way. SOS is a just okay 69, feeling here is their overall rpi is somewhat inflated by the gaudy 22-7 record and the inflated SEC top 100 wins. Two big games this week starting with a game at Florida in which a win will vault them in for sure and then a home game against Georgia. Florida is not a must win but Georgia is. Arky cannot afford two losses because then that is when the uncertainties creep in. SEC is not all the respected beyond its top 2 and Vandy is lurking right outside the cut line with better wins that Arky. Similarity perhaps to So Carolina's profile last year who were snubbed.


10. (67) MARQUETTE 17-11: Eagles suffered a tough loss at PC blowing a game they had and a shot to position themselves further up the pecking order. Still they have almost quietly worked their way onto the good side of the bubble. 5-6 vs top 50 is pretty strong and the 8-10 mark right in line with everyone else. The big win which keeps giving is the one over Villanova. They won at Creighton as well and OOC wins over bubbles Vandy and at Georgia look good. The loss to PC though was costly because it was their 2nd of the year to the Friars. A week of opportunity to solidify their spot or to possible play their way out. A trip to Xavier for a huge bubble matchup and then a home game vs Creighton. Losing both will land them out of the field barring a Big East tourney run to the finals. Winning both locks them in. Going 1-1 leaves them very bubblicious. Which way will they go?


11. (53) PROVIDENCE 18-11: Friars have played their way into the field the last 2 weeks with 2 wins over NCAA locks (Butler/Creighton) and 2 wins over fellow bubbles (Xavier/Marq). Up to 6-7 vs top 50 and 10-8 vs top 100, these are very strong numbers as the season comes to a close. OOC the wins vs Vermont and URI are sneaky good. They split with SHU and Xavier so no traction there but swept Marquette. Games against weak sisters De Paul and SJU are must wins though to keep the Friars here. Its the two bad losses to De Paul and BC both plus 200 schools that give pause on a otherwise solid resume. Its about taking care of business and not sustaining anymore bad losses. Unlike the other BE bubbles ahead of them, they will not get a shot at adding another quality win until the BE tourney.


12. (51) CALIFORNIA 19-9: A poster child for "Meh" resumes. Cal has just one top 50 win...at fellow bubble USC and a win over Princeton..that is it.....0-6 vs top 50, a paltry 1-7 vs top 50, and a weak sauce 4-8 vs top 100. Traditionally those type of nitty gritty numbers would land them out of the field having to work their way in but welcome to Weak bubble 2017. It has allowed the Bears to push their way up the list despite their profile. Obviously going to be helped by the strength at the top of the Pac 12 but Cal was 0-5 vs them. Note they lost to bubble Seton Hall. In their defense their worst loss was only to 101 San Diego State. Last two are dangerous road trips to Utah and Colorado. Win both and they are in. Lose both and they probably need a Pac 12 final run. Split and things remain unclear and they sit smack on the bubble needing a Pac 12 quality win to move their needle in the right direction


13. (35) ILLINOIS STATE 24-5: Redbirds finished co MVC regular season winners with Wichita State. Chatter is all about can the MVC land two given the overall weakness of the league and the lack of quality wins by both schools. Thinking is the Shockers have the better case for an at large probably due to perception while ISU is a bit sketchy. Obviously this is a good team but its been skating by to some close wins the past two weeks. Just 1-1 vs top 50...the split with WSU and 2-3 vs top 100 (mediocre New Mexico) and a SOS of 161 they will be dilemma for the committee if they fall short in the MVC. The committee has not been giving love to midmajor schools of late. However this year there is a lot of power 6 bloat around the bubble. If ISU can make the MVC finals, its reasonable to say they have as good as shot as anyone from a Power 6 school with a sub 500 conference record. Will be at the mercy of how those Power 6 tourney results shake out.


14. (42) RHODE ISLAND 19-9: Losses around the bubble this weekend allowed Rhody to float their way to last team in with that big win over VCU. The win was important because URI was lacking that legit conference win to go along with that big quality win over Cincinnati. Beyond that there is a nice win over projected Ohio Valley winner Belmont. Still 2-3 vs top 50 and 4-7 vs top 100 is shaky ground when you sit on the last 4 in/last 4 out line. The A10 is down this year. They have an awful loss to Fordham which really kills them when you try to give them the benefit of the doubt. The Rams will not have many opportunities for quality wins in its last two at St Joe's and Davidson, nor will they have a shot at a quality win until the A10 semis. So basically they need to win their last two and then beat Dayton/VCU in the A10 semis to make their case. Very doable but really in a precarious spot.



OUT



15. (47) VANDERBILT 16-13: Scheduling strong has its benefits. The Commodores have a SOS of 3 and have managed to quietly do their work slipping in the rpi top 50 and build some nice stuff on their resume despite being up and down all year long. 4-6 vs top 50 and 9-12 vs top 100 are very willing numbers. Vandy has a big win at Florida and as well as strong OOC win over Iowa State. In league they also beat SC and won at Arkansas. The negative is the overall loss number. Again as stated before, no school with 15 losses has received an at large bid. Vandy seems to has a bad loss to 254 Missouri which could kill them. They also have a good deal of losses to fringe SEC bubbles like Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia. So this week they finish at Kentucky and then home to Florida. Hard to expect them to win at Kentucky but what if they complete a season sweep of Florida. They would have amassed 5 top 50 wins and 10 top 100 wins yet they would head into the SEC tourney at 17-14 meaning one loss would drop them to 15. In that case they might need a run to the SEC finals. Going to be interesting to watch what the committee does with Vandy and Cuse who have the quality wins for sure but do have 15 losses.


16. (93) GEORGIA TECH 15-13: Losses to Notre Dame and NC State have bounced the Yellowjackets from in to out of the NCAA field. Two things that they are going to need overcome, first the sagging overall rpi mark of 93 as no school with an rpi that poor has been selected for an at large bid. Secondly like Cuse/Vandy they faced the issue of a possiblity of 15 losses. Now GT can take care of that issue if they can beat Pitt and win at Cuse. Those are the type of wins that would stabilize their profile which is willing with those wins. 4-7 vs top 50 is solid enough....that win over No Carolina is huge for them. Then you add in wins over FSU and ND plus a big OOC win over VCU. There most certainly is beef to the resume. Completing a season sweep with Cuse and getting that Pitt win would put them at 8-11 vs top 100 and 9-9 in ACC play. This would be good enough but its up to them to earn their way back in. A loss means much work to do in the ACC tourney.


17. (44) WAKE FOREST 16-12: It's hard to try and make a case for the Demon Deacons to be included in the field now based off of just wins over Miami, Bucknell and Georgia Tech. The mediocrity in the middle to bottom of the ACC has allowed Wake to remain in the discussion despite a 0-7 mark vs top 25, an atrocious 1-9 vs top 50 and a weak 6-12 vs top 100. The best that can be said about them is that the SOS is a strong 24 and there are no bad losses here, all within the top 100. Any shot WF has comes in its last two....Louisville and at Va Tech. They really need both but to at least to remain on life support they will need a split. Lose both and it is Sayonara Sally.

18. (56) ILLINOIS 16-12: Somehow someway, the Illini have managed to push their way onto the bubble after being left for dead a few weeks. That is what a few wins in weak bubble year will do when you have a strong SOS. They have been unspectacular for much of the year but that SOS of 12 is coming into play. Illinois has some nice wins over VCU, Michgan, and a sweep of Northwestern.....4-8 vs top 50 would seem needing more but the 9-12 vs top 100 is strong enough here and notching another top 50 and 100 win against Michigan State will legitimately put them in play heading into the Big 10 tourney...of course as long as they can take care of last place Rutgers in the season finale which would even their Big 10 mark at 9-9. Note there are no bad losses on the resume. So alot riding on that home game against Michigan State because its a game that could also end their hopes.

19. (87) INDIANA 16-13: Hard to believe that with just one win in their last 6, the Hoosiers are not only alive for a NCAA bid but still in the last 4 in line. That win over Northwestern resuscitated their dying chances. However the key to Indiana staying in contention involves winning their last two which will not be easy. It means winning at Big 10 leading Purdue...tall order indeed and then winning at Ohio State. One would say this seems unlikely given Indiana's woeful 2-9 road mark. But IF and its a big IF, if they win those that is where their strong OOC wins over Kansas and UNC will be pointed to. Indiana does have those 2 top 25 wins that most bubble teams do not have, they are 4-10 vs top 50 and 7-12 vs top 100 but two more wins pushes some of those numbers up, Indiana will have as good a profile as any on the last 4 in/last 4 out line. That bad loss to 238 Fort Wayne might be their undoing as it has torpedoed their overall rpi number and is their only loss outside the top 100.


20. (67) KANSAS STATE 17-12: Wildcats have played their way out of their tourney and their 30 point loss to bottom feeding Oklahoma shows that they do not pass the eye test anymore. KSU has lost 5 of 6 and 8 of 10 and are just 6-10 in the Big 12. Cats have 3 really great wins...at Baylor, at OSU and WVU for the 3-8 mark vs top 50. That is actually pretty good the problem is that they are just 4-11 vs top 100 and a woeful 6-11 vs top 150. Not sure a school with just 6 top 150 wins can or should receive an at large bid. Their best OOC win is just Colorado State. So much to overcome at this point, their hopes lay on winning at TCU which is basically a bubble elimination and game and then beat Texas Tech. At that point they would have at least stopped the bleeding and notched two more needed top 100 wins. Then they will need another quality win or two in the Big 12 tourney. Possible but not probable given the direction they seemed headed.


21. (60) TCU 16-12: Horned Frogs have lost 5 in a row all against NCAA tourney locks which wrapped up a 1-7 mark against the top 4 schools in the Big 12. Their lone win was early in the Big 12 season over Iowa State. They have just one additional non conference win of note but its a good one...Illinois State. Unfortunately despite the strong SOS this year of 23, TCU went an awful 2-10 vs top 50 schools and a not much better 5-12 vs top 100. Now they did win at Kansas State and now get to host the Cats in a bubble elimination game. TCU must win and then beat Oklahoma to close the season. At that point they will at least have a shot with a quality win or two in the Big 12 tourney. Note there are no losses to schools beyond the top 100 so every little bit helps.


22. (54) HOUSTON 20-8: Cougars float onto the bubble but their time on this list depends on what they do in a trip to Cincinnati this week. They desperately need more meat on their nitty gritty. AAC is quite down this year beyond the top two. Houston has just two top 50 wins...Vermont and URI and just 3-5 vs top 100. Those are not at large selection numbers. But a win over Cincy at least will keep them in contention and if they can win over ECU and then maybe beat Cincy again in the AAC semis to get to the finals, they will be considered. Lose to Cincy and they are gone, done, kaput, no shot as an at large.


23. (72) OHIO STATE 16-13: Talk about soft underbelly of the bubble...that is how OSU lands here despite their 6-10 Big 10 mark and generally having a nondescript disappointment of a season. Still they have 4 top 50 (4-9) and that is better than some around the bubble. Wins over Wisky, Minnesota, Michigan and MSU would seem to put them in good position and they have a nice win over Providence. 7-12 vs top 100 would seem to need more. Just 3-8 road/neutral and that hideous loss to 287 Florida Atlantic is a huge killer on the resume. Games left at Penn State and home to Indiana will at least keep them in the games with two more top 100 wins but those games will not move the needle. OSU is going to need two quality Big 10 tourney wins which probably means making a run at least to semis if not finals. Seems like a longshot but remember they already have 4 wins vs top 7 in this league.



24. (52) GEORGIA 16-12: Have to rate UGA's chances as an at large as pretty low right now. The SOS of 20 is certainly something that has helped the overall rpi number be pretty respectable but its hard to get around the lack of quality wins. Dawgs went 0-6 vs the top 3 in the SEC. They are just 1-7 vs rpi top 50 with that win coming over bubble Vandy. 8-11 vs top 100 is pretty willing but not sure wins over UNC Asheville, Ole Miss and Geo Tech move the needle all that much. Georgia must win its last two...Auburn and then at top 50 Arkansas, that would notch two more top 100 wins and another top 50 win. In addition they probably need a run to the SEC finals and that will require a win over either Florida or Kentucky. Much to prove.


25. (95) IOWA 16-13: Iowa? Iowa a bubble team? Well again if some of these distant SEC/Big 12/ACC schools are being included as possible bubbles, Iowa should also be on this list as well.. 4-8 vs top 50 and 7-11 vs top 100 are not all that bad. Big OOC win over ISU and in league wins over Michigan, Purdue, and just recently at Maryland. Quietly they are now 8-8 in the Big 10. Usually that means alot more but the non conference schedule drags thing down. Overall with a SOS of 88, Iowa is just 8-13 vs RPI to 150 and those 13 losses mean they cannot afford another loss before the Big 10 tourney. Two losses to Illinois hurt as does the Omaha loss. The whole premise of them being on the bubble rides on having to win at Wisconsin and then in the home finale to Penn State. If they can do that, then let us seriously revisit before Big 10 tournament play begins.


26. (88) ALABAMA 16-12: Hard to make a case for the Crimson Tide now after dropping games to Georgia and Texas A&M last week. Tide were at the point where they were not going to pick up any new quality wins but just had to keep winning as much as possible. Now just 9-7 in the SEC with only a 4-11 mark vs top 100 and just two top 50 wins in Vandy and SC, there are just two many losses to mediocre competition to make a legit case for them. 6-11 vs top 150 is not a good look for the committee to see. Bama closes with Ole Miss/at Tennessee. They will need those two and then a run to the SEC finals to move close to the bubble line of 68.


27. (70) MISSISSIPPI 18-11: If Georgia is going to be on this list, I suppose Ole Miss can be here as well. However there is not much to discuss here. Like UGA, their only top 50 win was Vandy...1-8 and then just 4-11 vs top 100 does not cut it...the others Auburn 2x and Tenn. There are no OOC wins of note. True no losses outside the top 100 but they are just 7-11 vs rpi top 150. Even with wins over Bama and SC which does help the profile they will need to reach the SEC finals and still pray.


28. (61) PITTSBURGH 15-14/ (62) TENNESSEE 14-14/ (63) CLEMSON 14-14: Going to lump these bloated power conference toads, ironically they almost have the same records and line up right next to each other in the rpi rankings and all have similar SOS and nitty gritty top 50/100 stuff. Some decent wins from these schools against tough schedule but way too much losing. These schools with their awful records can be considered legit bubble schools again until they win their remaining 2 games left this season and all each reach their conference tourney finals. Seems incredibly unlikely and these teams will not even have the consolation of NIT with their poor marks.



LAST 4 IN: RHODE ISLAND, ILLINOIS STATE, CALIFORNIA, PROVIDENCE

LAST 4 OUT: VANDERBILT, GEORGIA TECH, WAKE FOREST, ILLINOIS
 
If Pitt , Clemson and Ole Miss are under consideration of any type then Monmouth should be.

If they get to their conference final they'll have 28 wins.
 
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I'd have to think 4-5 of the schools you have as 1 conference would have teams that would be on THAT bubble if they lose in their conference tournaments.

Middle tennessee state, UNC Wilmington (sans Gettys), Vermont
 
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Absolutely awesome time consuming analysis. As someone who has don e their own guessing game every year, I know how much work and analysis it takes but your presentation is outstanding. Major props!
 
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If Pitt , Clemson and Ole Miss are under consideration of any type then Monmouth should be.

If they get to their conference final they'll have 28 wins.


Monmouth has done nothing of note this year besides a whole bunch of wins against no ones. Would clearly be behind schools like Middle Tennessee State UNC Wilmington, Texas Arlington,m and Nevada if those schools lost their conference tournaments. But most if not all of these schools do not have much chance

and there is some question about whether Illinois State should get a bid...so Monmouth to be has no shot. Last year they had the wins, if they had last years resume then a case could be made

if they finish 28-6 which means they lose in the MAAC finals...the current rpi of 45 will end up over 50. 0-2 vs top 50, 1-3 vs top 100. You cannot get a bid when all you have to show for it is a win over Princeton. They lost to #200 Rider in addition to St Peters. Scheduled 3 strong OOC games but lost all of them...20 point loss to bubble Syracuse and blown out by UNC....lost by 1 to So Carolina. SOS is 180, non conference SOS is 114.

I am not saying that those schools are getting in. In fact I think while I have alot of teams projected as not in I am being conservative. There probably are only about 6 spots open at this point. Can you say Monmouth is more deserving that Rhode Island that has wins over VCU and Cincinnati?
 
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Any team that doesn't win at least 50% of their conference games really shouldn't be invited to the tournament. I'd rather see 2nd teams from 2nd tier conferences get in, even if we know those teams aren't as good as 8-10 P5 schools.


that might not be fair because most of these conferences have unbalanced schedules. I think right now most of the sub 500 schools are bubble out, not sure I have a sub 500 league school projected in the field. I think the bubble looks scarier than it is, by the end of the weekend alot of these schools can be officially thrown in the scrap heap
 
I'd have to think 4-5 of the schools you have as 1 conference would have teams that would be on THAT bubble if they lose in their conference tournaments.

Middle tennessee state, UNC Wilmington (sans Gettys), Vermont


Middle Tennessee State has the best case of these and perhaps only realistic of these

24-4, rpi 32, sos 126 but here is a big numbers...non conference sos of 15! (not sure how they come up with this)

2-1 vs top 50, 4-1 vs top 100...wins of Vandy and projected NCAA NC Wilmington, wins at Ole Miss and projected NCCA Belmont

Loss by 3 at VCU.

Really bad conference loss to 248 UTEP. Also lost to 124 Georgia State and 148 Tennessee State.

Do they get a bid? Having 3 sort of bad losses hurt, if they did not have that UTEP loss, they would be golden. At this level EVERY LOSS counts almost double. You can get away with 4 or 5 total losses but when it goes to 6 or over it becomes murkier.

The others I just do not see it a case being made. Texas Arlington does have a win over St Marys and they played and lost to Minny and Arky but have 3 bad losses too..might be one too many.
 
Monmouth has done nothing of note this year besides a whole bunch of wins against no ones. Would clearly be behind schools like Middle Tennessee State UNC Wilmington, Texas Arlington,m and Nevada if those schools lost their conference tournaments.

and there is some question about whether Illinois State should get a bid...so Monmouth to be has no shot. Last year they had the wins, if they had last years resume then a case could be made

if they finish 28-6 which means they lose in the MAAC finals...the current rpi of 45 will end up over 50. 0-2 vs top 50, 1-3 vs top 100. You cannot get a bid when all you have to show for it is a win over Princeton. They lost to #200 Rider in addition to St Peters. Scheduled 3 strong OOC games but lost all of them...20 point loss to bubble Syracuse and blown out by UNC....lost by 1 to So Carolina. SOS is 180, non conference SOS is 114.

I am not saying that those schools are getting in. In fact I think while I have alot of teams projected as not in I am being conservative. There probably are only about 6 spots open at this point. Can you say Monmouth is more deserving that Rhode Island that has wins over VCU and Cincinnati?

Of course Monmouth did all that last year and what did it get them? Damned if you and damned if you don't.

And very well done!!
 
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i was wrong. In the end B1G gets 7 or 8 schools out of 14 in NCAAT. I had 5 or 6 not to long ago. I need to stop reading kenpom so much.
 
Absolutely awesome time consuming analysis. As someone who has don e their own guessing game every year, I know how much work and analysis it takes but your presentation is outstanding. Major props!



thank you, I love doing it and if I keep up with it I find it cuts back on the time I have to research all this. I do not look at other bracketologists stuff until after I complete my analysis. I think Mandell at Fox has Illinois in his latest field. Palm still has TCU in and Wichita State out. Lunardi has Vandy in. I was bold with the URI inclusion but that is going to change. I think truthfully there are only maybe 6 spots really open right now
 
Of course Monmouth did all that last year and what did it get them? Damned if you and damned if you don't.


last year they did have some deserving wins but those losses killed them...7 I think. I do not think they were deserving over Syracuse who had some big wins last year and the Cuse proved their worth with their run. Last year though I think Tulsa's inclusion was a big outrage when they really had done nothing but a few big wins in a mediocre conference called the AAC
 
Middle tennessee State has to be in. They will finish 27-4 17-1. CUSA is in the upper half of conferences. The OOC schedule was decent.
 
i was wrong. In the end B1G gets 7 or 8 schools out of 14 in NCAAT. I had 5 or 6 not to long ago. I need to stop reading kenpom so much.


yeah I think 7 is a great number right now. I think in normal years, Northwestern would be really worried but the gap from Northwestern to Rhode Island right now is pretty wide. Now that can change, if I was the Cats I would want to win that Michigan game to remove any doubt....but if they lose and lose to Purdue, they have to win a B10 tourney game to feel safe..one win anywhere. If they lose all 3, well then that is when they can worry because it is left to the hands of the committee which often uses inconsistent measuring tools. It will still be 60/40 that they would get even if they do not win another game this year.
 
if Northwestern losses out they will have only 3 wins against NCAA tournament teams. Only 1 win against the 6 other B1G teams in the NCAAs.

They are paper tigers.....unless they get a win in their next 2.

I think you are right to not have them in LOCKED status.
 
BAC, You did one outstanding job on this. I know how much time this takes. You certainly saved a lot of us a lot of time. I hope one day I can see RU in consideration. That would be nice.
 
27-4 after winning 2 remaining conference games at home. 29-5 if they lose La tech or UTEP/ODU in the finals.

Imagine putting them side by side with a potential 20-12 Northwestern team (I think NW will get a win though).
 
if Northwestern losses out they will have only 3 wins against NCAA tournament teams. Only 1 win against the 6 other B1G teams in the NCAAs.

They are paper tigers.....unless they get a win in their next 2.

I think you are right to not have them in LOCKED status.


in their defense they have no bad loss...their worst loss was Indiana....and they have 9 top 100 wins which is better than most if not all below them
 
27-4 after winning 2 remaining conference games at home. 29-5 if they lose La tech or UTEP/ODU in the finals.

Imagine putting them side by side with a potential 20-12 Northwestern team (I think NW will get a win though).


that is not who they will compete for the last spot...more like Illinois State, Rhode Island or Georgia Tech or Marquette
 
Maryland is a lock even if those 7 of their last 9? they should be thankful not many midmajors stood out.
 
I agree on all your mid majors-----and disagree on NW-----I think any team with 20 wins in one of the Big 5 conferences is in. Especially if they're .500 or better in conference.

They could end up in a play in game but I think they're in.
 
Maryland is a lock even if those 7 of their last 9? they should be thankful not many midmajors stood out.


Maryland is easily a lock. 4-3 vs top 50...3 of them on the road..at Minn, at Purdue, at Northwestern, Oklahoma State, 10-2 road/neutral, worst loss was Iowa and a whopping 14-7 vs top 100, not a discussion even if the bubble was strong...in no year would this profile even have to worry
 
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I agree on all your mid majors-----and disagree on NW-----I think any team with 20 wins in one of the Big 5 conferences is in. Especially if they're .500 or better in conference.

They could end up in a play in game but I think they're in.


I would not say in yet for sure given they only have 3 top 50 wins.......should Illinois go on a run and it comes down to those two, Illinois would have the better profile and beat them 2x, what if both Indiana and Illinois goes on runs. There are scenerios where I can see Northwestern being left out so that is why they remain on the list. Michigan and MSU are basically locks at this point but I am conservative with my calls. Last year everyone had So Carolina has a lock for weeks but I did not as I was seeing some potential issues there which proved to be true and they were left out.

I do agree that if someone put a gun to my head, I would say Northwestern is getting a bid...and that play in game is their landing spot IF they lose out, if they win another game, they will avoid it
 
Man the bubble is gross this year. I believe the lowest RPI to ever make a tourney is around 63. Something to keep in mind regarding Marquette. With that said, if there's ever going to be an exception to the rule it is this year.
 
recapping tonight....

After losing at Purdue,. put a fork in Indiana, they are finished...will Crean be back?

Ohio State kept their slim hopes alive by escaping Penn State

Pitt the bloated toad they were are officially done after losing to a Georgia Tech. Important win for Georgia Tech who is right there on the last in/last out line. A win vs Cuse puts them back in the field

Vandy blew a 19 point lead at Kentucky and may have blown up their NCAA hopes as well. Really need to beat Florida or they will need to win the SEC tourney

SHU edges Georgetown avoiding the upset. It will not move their needle but it does not hurt them and thats all they needed to get out of that game. If they win at Butler they can lock in

Providence took care of De Paul and same thing applies to them as applied to SHU. Problem is that their next game vs SJU does not give them the opportunity for a quality win so work to do in BE tourney to really feel safe
 
Think URI and Providence have a LOT of work to do....both need their conference final to lock in for me...

The most intriguing item is what to do with Xavier if they lose out the rest of the way.....their resume is so strong, but they are a shell of themselves since the injury took away their best player.....losing 5 to 6 straight in February and potentially 7 out of 8 down the stretch would place almost anyone else out.....

The teams capitalizing on their wins against them are essentially playing themselves into a better resume, because of how strong their resume was pre-injury......Same thing essentially for Creighton...Watson injury completely changes Creighton and how you perceive them...

If Illinois shoots their way into the tourney by beating Michigan State and RU and finishes 9-9 in league, they would have beaten NW twice, but both games were without NW having Lindsey (leading scorer).....It would be impossible to ignore the eye test and know that NW probably beats another team if Lindsey was 100% all year.

If Lindsey missed the RU game and they dropped that one, it would be a very thin NW resume....I don't think they are safe despite 20 wins....they are the story of the league and country, so they will burn a Middle Tennessee State or someone that stumbles in their conference tournament, but they are extremely well coached and somewhat limited on what they can do.

NW will get in and win a game in a 7-10 or 8-9 matchup, because you have to really scout them well to stop them....if you don't see them a lot, you will get burned.
 
Loser of the Xavier-Marquette game tonite is likely done.

Disagree on Providence-----they don't have nearly as much to do as URI

URI needs IMO to win their next 2 a win in the A-10 tourney and maybe a win in the A-10 semi to get in. Not easy but doable .
 
some movement after Georgia Tech's win...they are now in and Rhode Island is out

LAST 4 IN: GEORGIA TECH, ILLINOIS STATE, CALIFORNIA, PROVIDENCE

LAST 4 OUT: RHODE ISLAND, VANDERBILT, WAKE FOREST, ILLINOIS
 
Loser of the Xavier-Marquette game tonite is likely done.

Disagree on Providence-----they don't have nearly as much to do as URI

URI needs IMO to win their next 2 a win in the A-10 tourney and maybe a win in the A-10 semi to get in. Not easy but doable .


No way the loser of Xavier/Marquette is done, who else is taking their place, now they may fall closer to last 4 in but both will have chances for quality wins in the BE tourney. Marquette will actually have a shot at a quality win this week when hosting Creighton but I will say a 1-1 split is needed for them to feel secure.

Providence is in okay shape but a first round loss in the BE tourney and they are in trouble.. for Marquette if they go 0-2 and then lose in first round BE tourney, they are probably out.

I agree with URI, they absolutely have to win their next 2 and then at least make the A10 semis but probably the finals, If they make the finals, they will have a legit case and would have added another top 50 win in their semifinal game most likely.
 
Xavier has lost 5 of their last 6-----beset with injuries----the committee will look at that vs an MTSU team that may not win their conference tourney but have 27 wins. They won't say they look at how you finish but historically they do.

PC has won 4 in a row----playing well----one more win and IMO they're a lock-----ditto Seton Hall.

IMO if Rhody wins their next 3 they're in as a Play In team regardless of how they do in the Semis.

The bubble is that soft.
 
Providence is not a lock in Marquette beats Creighton. Is there any scenerios available yet for the BE tourney. I'm assuming these schools are going to be in the 5/6/7 spots. Whoever gets the 7 spots get the game against the 10 seed, not a game that helps but a game that could hurt if they lose. I agree PC is doing well lately and built up their resume but they also have 3 bad losses...St Johns, BC and worst of all De Paul. PC's non conference wins are just Vermont and URI. Marquette has wins over Villanova that overflows with giving. If they can beat Creighton they match PC 6 top 50 wins. I think one of those teams may not make it. Its a tough call between those two for sure and a loss tonight by Marquette and I will move PC ahead of them in the pecking order

SHU I think gets in without a win most likely but if both Marquette and PC make the BE semis and say SHU goes out in first round, then you start to wonder. I am not convinced this league gets 7. Its way too early to declare anyone a lock.
 
I would caution with Rhody because last year St Bonnies had a similar resume and was snubbed when everyone thought they were going. Wins of note are just Cincy and VCU, there is nothing else. I think they need that win over Dayton/VCU in the semis to be safe. Its a resume that the NCAA committee can easily dismiss and no one would really be outraged.
 
Really is very good. I wonder if UCF shouldn't be in conversations.
 
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