Bac's Update Pecking Order: 3/5

[bac2therac]

32 Autobids

ACC: Virginia
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
AMERICAN: Cincinnati
ATLANTIC SUN: Lipscomb
ATLANTIC 10: Rhode Island
BIG EAST: Xavier
BIG SKY: Montana
BIG SOUTH: Radford
BIG WEST: UC Davis
BIG 10: Michigan
BIG 12: Kansas
COLONIAL: Charleston
CUSA: Middle Tennessee State
HORIZON: Wright State
IVY: Harvard
MAAC: Iona
MIDAMERICAN: Buffalo
MEAC: Hampton
MVC: Loyola
MWC: Nevada
NORTHEAST: Wagner
OHIO VALLEY: Murray State
PAC 12: Arizona
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SEC: Auburn
SOUTHERN: UNC Greensboro
SOUTHLAND: SE Louisiana
SUN BELT: Louisiana
SWAC: Arkansas Pine Bluff
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
WAC: New Mexico State
WEST COAST: Gonzaga


25 projected at large locks: Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Florida State, Miami, Wichita State, Houston, Villanova, Seton Hall, Creighton, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, Texas A&M, Missouri, St Mary's

That takes care of 57 of 68 available NCAA bids. There are 11 spots open



Here is the pecking order for those 11 spots

IN

1. Oklahoma
2. Butler
3. Providence
4. Texas
5. Kansas State
6. Arizona State
7. Saint Bonaventure
8. UCLA
9. Baylor
10. Alabama
11. Syracuse

OUT

12. Louisville
13. Nebraska
14. Penn State
15. Marquette
16. USC
17. Boise State
18. Oklahoma State
19. Washington
20. Utah
21. Oregon
22. Mississippi State
23. Notre Dame


Last 4 in: SYRACUSE, ALABAMA, BAYLOR, UCLA
Last 4 out: LOUISVILLE, NEBRASKA, PENN STATE, MARQUETTE


Just some notes...

Oklahoma and Butler are all but locks here. It would take a wild scenerio to see either of them left out. Providence, Texas, and KSU all appear fairly safe but not locks.

From Arizona State on that is where you have the question marks. For the Sundevils who did very little in a weak Pac 10 finishing 8-10 they are riding on their strong non conference performance with wins over Xavier, Kansas and Kansas State. They must win their opening round Pac 12 game vs Colorado. St Bonaventure just needs to keep winning as much as they can. If they reach the A10 finals, they should be okay but if they slip up in the semis that leaves them bubblicious. UCLA got a bye in Pac 12 first round but probably needs to beat the winner of Cal/Stanford to stay in the field. Baylor draws WVU in Big 12 quarters...they would do themselves well to win that. Alabama has 14 losses going into the SEC tourney. Their spot here is perilous. Not sure they can sustain a 15th loss on their resume despite some better wins that most on the bubble. A controversial team. They must win that first game in the SEC vs Texas A&M as a 17-15 team is not getting in. Syracuse is in by the skin of their teeth. For starters they need to beat Wake, not sure that they have to beat UNC but we will revisit then.



Outside the bubble....Nebraska and Penn State's seasons are over. That is not good while the bubble around the can play their way into the field. Both schools do not have the SOS or Quadrant 1 or 2 wins for that matter to get selected. They would have to rely on the selection committee throwing them a bone for intangibles or eye test or something not on their sheet. I cannot say its impossible. I have seen the committee use whatever they want to justify a team in..remember Tulsa a couple years back. Unlikely yes but given the weakness around the bubble, if one of the schools below them does not make a run they are both going to be right there on the selection board.

Marquette likely needs to beat Villanova in the BE quarters to dance

Louisville is the last team out right now. If they can beat FSU that increases their chances of getting in without having to beat Virginia. Might be a battle between them and Syracuse for that last spot. USC's profile has been fading badly despite a overall rpi of 34. Those Q1 and Q2 wins are less impressive than they seem. Going to need to not only beat Wash/OSU in quarters but probably take down whoever comes out of the Utah bracket in semis. Boise State must reach to the MWC finals and hope that 25-8 is good enough because they just lack the quality wins...definite longshot.

Oklahoma State will need to beat Oklahoma in 1st round Big 12 and then beat Kansas a third time..is that enough?..we will find out if they do it

Washington, Utah, and Oregon must all reach the finals of the Pac 12 to have a shot. Ditto for Mississippi State in the SEC and Notre Dame in the ACC

If anybody has a question about any specific team or situation feel free to ask.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

I know the numbers don't say it, but I think the Pac 12 will get higher seeds and more teams than the numbers give you...

Arizona State is a lock.

UCLA is a lock.....

USC was thought to be out last year and not only got in as a 12 seed play in game, but they buried what was supposed to be a better seeded 12 seed play in team in Providence last year.....USC I believe made the Sweet 16 last year.

Yes USC lost a starter for the season, but I don't think it will matter....if they make the Pac 12 semifinals they should be in....if it's the Final, they are a lock.

I don't see Alabama making it, despite the strong #'s.....and I think the SEC will get more consideration in overall seeding (higher) than the Big East (will be lower than people expect).

I see Seton Hall as a 7/8, Butler as a 9/10 and Marquette on 2nd 4 out with Providence as last 4 in.

Louisville is a tourney team....the ACC is very tough....

Boise State will make the Mountain West Finals and I think play themselves onto the bubble (12 seed play-in game).....

I agree with 90+% of what you have, this is an outstanding summary overall and has been fine tuned each and every year.....I think the committee throws another curve ball, to keep this a moving target....

 

[BigEastPhil]

You seem to be spot on as Lunardi tonight said that Syracuse and Louisville have to win 2 games in the ACC Tourney to be considered a lock.

Lunardi also said "how come Syracuse every year is 68th / 69th etc in Bracketology?...lol

 

[bac2therac]

The selection committee will seed based on rpi numbers...conferences that did not perform well like the Pac 12 will be penalized...remember the Big 10 last year, almost everyone got a bad seed.

ASU finished 8-10 in the Pac 12...they are solely riding on beating Kansas and Xavier which is probably enough to get them in but if they lose that first round game all bets are off especially if USC or Utah make the Pac 12 finals.

I agree with your BE seedings...unless of course SHU or Creighton or Butler wins the whole thing..they are basically going to in that 8-10 range. Personally I dont like the idea of Marquette getting in but yet if they beat Nova they will.

Louisville does not have many quality wins..just 4-12 vs Q1 and Q2..thats weak...they beat Va Tech 2x and and won at FSU..thats all they have.

I would not be surprised to see a curveball thrown and Nebraska get in. If a school like Alabama finishing 17-15 is picked over Nebraska...thats garbage

 

[bac2therac]

You seem to be spot on as Lunardi tonight said that Syracuse and Louisville have to win 2 games in the ACC Tourney to be considered a lock.

Lunardi also said "how come Syracuse every year is 68th / 69th etc in Bracketology?...lol

Phil...the thing Cuse has going for them this year that they didnt the past two years in a strong sos of 12. They needed that Clemson win, they have only beat Miami, Va Tech, Louisville and Buffalo besides that...still that to me is a better resume than Louisville

last year they missed it, two years ago they made it. Going to be close this year once again

 

[rubaseball78]

Wouldn’t mind seeing both Louisville and Syracuse out.

 

[King of S]

Phil...the thing Cuse has going for them this year that they didnt the past two years in a strong sos of 12. They needed that Clemson win, they have only beat Miami, Va Tech, Louisville and Buffalo besides that...still that to me is a better resume than Louisville

last year they missed it, two years ago they made it. Going to be close this year once again

SYRACUSE has a very difficult path in the ACC tournament- not sure they are going to get there.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Rutgers at 15-19 not far from Alabama.

 

[King of S]

Maybe 2 from the Colonia Athletic?

 

[G- RUnit]

A lot of the announcers giving ND a legitimate shot. Not sold on Texas with so many losses but good story. Not as bullish on Alabama at all. Gonna have too many losses. Think one of Nebraska PSU gets in. UCLA is a lock. Need west coast teams at the very least.

 

[King of S]

USC, Utah in: Alabama, Syracuse out

 

[BigEastPhil]

Another interesting matter will be that of Notre Dame and how does the Committee judge them with Colson back with the team as they were a top 25 squad with him and they fell off the face of the earth when he got hurt. I believe they play and should defeat Pitt tomorrow and then its V Tech and should they win - is that adequate for them given Colson's back?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Notre Dame with Colson definitely to the eye belongs. Not sure how the committee deals with it

A team who gets a star hurt at the end of the season doesn’t get penalized so a team who has someone hurt probably shouldn’t get a credit

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Have they ever gone back and graded joe 's expertise after selection Sunday.? Would love to see his last 10 in picks vs. Actual.

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Wouldn’t mind seeing both Louisville and Syracuse out.

The ville could tanya harding the other teams and they'd still get the benefit.

 

[bac2therac]

SYRACUSE has a very difficult path in the ACC tournament- not sure they are going to get there.

yes they do...I do not think that Wake win is enough..that said they will have a decided home court advantage in Brooklyn against UNC

 

[bac2therac]

Have they ever gone back and graded joe 's expertise after selection Sunday.? Would love to see his last 10 in picks vs. Actual.

he at times plays favorites during the runup but then get serious on the last day or two. He had one wrong last year...I got them all right for once

 

[bac2therac]

Notre Dame with Colson definitely to the eye belongs. Not sure how the committee deals with it

A team who gets a star hurt at the end of the season doesn’t get penalized so a team who has someone hurt probably shouldn’t get a credit

no way...do you think they are beat Va Tech and Duke and then maybe UNC back to back to back

they did beat Wichita State non conference but all they have is wins at Cuse, FSU and NC State...3 Q3 losses...Ga Tech, Indiana, Ball State

 

[Vegas pj]

Rutgers at 15-19 not far from Alabama.

According to Goggle map - 941 miles and record .107 in w/l %. :chairshot:

 

[bac2therac]

Another interesting matter will be that of Notre Dame and how does the Committee judge them with Colson back with the team as they were a top 25 squad with him and they fell off the face of the earth when he got hurt. I believe they play and should defeat Pitt tomorrow and then its V Tech and should they win - is that adequate for them given Colson's back?

no must beat Duke and then maybe even UNC....Va Tech is definitley not enough, see above

 

[bac2therac]

no way...they must reach ACC finals..do you think they are beat Va Tech and Duke and then UNC back to back to back

they did beat Wichita State non conference but all they have is wins at Cuse, FSU and NC State...3 Q3 losses...Ga Tech, Indiana, Ball State

USC, Utah in: Alabama, Syracuse out

no way USC and Utah..they are slated to meet in Pac 12 semis. loser is not making it

 

[bac2therac]

A lot of the announcers giving ND a legitimate shot. Not sold on Texas with so many losses but good story. Not as bullish on Alabama at all. Gonna have too many losses. Think one of Nebraska PSU gets in. UCLA is a lock. Need west coast teams at the very least.

hmm where are those announcers...couldnt be ESPN could it? Of course talking up their biases...they are slobbering over any school from the Big 12 and ACC...CBS slobbering over SEC...Seth Davis who should know better saying Alabama is no matter what...um hello..they can lose to A&M and they would be 17-15..thats a scary record to have..and I know Vandy got in at 19-15 last year but yeah two games make a difference

 

[bac2therac]

Maybe 2 from the Colonia Athletic?

absolutely not.....the only projected one bid leagues that can steal bids are CUSA with Middle Tennessee State and they are iffy and MWC with Nevada who would be a lock

 

[bac2therac]

Rutgers at 15-19 not far from Alabama.

unfortunately their sos is 5 and nonconference 28 with a 9-12 mark vs Q1 &2

RU is sos of 82 and non conference 328 with a 1-13 mark vs Q1 and Q2 with 3 Q4 losses

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

he at times plays favorites during the runup but then get serious on the last day or two. He had one wrong last year...I got them all right for once

How much influence do you think these guys have on the committee. Is it possible some members make selections or vote because they don't want to appear wrong.? If joe says so it must be correct.? Does the committee have balls or influenced by this never ending sell job.

 

[Vegas pj]

unfortunately their sos is 5 and nonconference 28 with a 9-12 mark vs Q1 &2

RU is sos of 82 and non conference 328 with a 1-13 mark vs Q1 and Q2 with 3 Q4 losses

My response was softer gentler. [laughing]

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

unfortunately their sos is 5 and nonconference 28 with a 9-12 mark vs Q1 &2

RU is sos of 82 and non conference 328 with a 1-13 mark vs Q1 and Q2 with 3 Q4 losses

Don’t give me statistics

Use your eyeballs. Stony Brook is a very good team and Hartford much better than what their record said. May look like bad losses, but they were quality teams.

SEC is a bad basketball conference, this isn’t FB.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

they should do a “where are they now” on that guy from Jackson State that torched us for like 30 points.

After that game we called him a can’t miss NBA guy and totally accepted the loss because of his greatness.

 

[bac2therac]

Don’t give me statistics

Use your eyeballs. Stony Brook is a very good team and Hartford much better than what their record said. May look like bad losses, but they were quality teams.

SEC is a bad basketball conference, this isn’t FB.

SEC is much better this year and Stonyhartford were trash...RU played like absolute garbage those two games

 

[bac2therac]

they should do a “where are they now” on that guy from Jackson State that torched us for like 30 points.

After that game we called him a can’t miss NBA guy and totally accepted the loss because of his greatness.

was that Freddie's opening game at the RAC...I knew that was a bad idea

 

[bac2therac]

How much influence do you think these guys have on the committee. Is it possible some members make selections or vote because they don't want to appear wrong.? If joe says so it must be correct.? Does the committee have balls or influenced by this never ending sell job.

I think in the old days there was more influence from other sources and conference ADs...I think that has lessened somewhat especially with the absorption of the top midmajors into other conferences.

 

[TDIrish27]

SEC is far from a bad basketball conference this year

I don't see ND getting in nor are they deserving of it .

 

[blockm2]

Don’t give me statistics

Use your eyeballs. Stony Brook is a very good team and Hartford much better than what their record said. May look like bad losses, but they were quality teams.

SEC is a bad basketball conference, this isn’t FB.

Facts come in more handy than eyeballs when you probably haven't seen most teams play more than 2 or 3 games all season. For example if you only watched Rutgers play 1 full game all season and it was the last one, you'd say they were pretty darn good this year.

The SEC is really good in basketball this year according to the human polls and the computer rankings. Just because they've been pretty weak the last few years doesn't mean they aren't better this year. After all, those same polls and computers thought they sucked in previous years so something obviously changed.

 

[shields]

ND does not deserve bid.

 

[gordel1]

ASU is IN. No one takes into consideration as well that all their pac 12-losses have been by single digits I believe.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Facts come in more handy than eyeballs when you probably haven't seen most teams play more than 2 or 3 games all season. For example if you only watched Rutgers play 1 full game all season and it was the last one, you'd say they were pretty darn good this year.

The SEC is really good in basketball this year according to the human polls and the computer rankings. Just because they've been pretty weak the last few years doesn't mean they aren't better this year. After all, those same polls and computers thought they sucked in previous years so something obviously changed.

I was joking.

 

[King of S]

yes they do...I do not think that Wake win is enough..that said they will have a decided home court advantage in Brooklyn against UNC

Pending snow storm might keep Syracuse fans away from Brooklyn making the game a true neutral site.

 

[bac2therac]

they will be there

 

[blockm2]

BYU is a possible bid thief tonight as they take on Gonzaga in the WCC title game. The #3 seed Cougars knocked off #2 St. Mary's in the semifinal last night 85-72. KenPom gives BYU a 22% chance at the upset and auto-bid. Gonzaga won the earlier matchups by 8 points (home) and 14 points (road).

So if BYU gets the upset, that'll be 3 bids for the WCC instead of 2.

 

[King of S]

I'm sorry but BYU is in even with a loss. Strong RPI.