OK here we go with the final full NCAA pecking order update heading into conference tournament week. Comments or jeers always welcomed
Here are the 32 projected automatic bid winners...
AMERICA EAST: Albany
AMERICAN: SMU
ATLANTIC 10: Davidson
ACC: Virginia
ATLANTIC SUN: North Florida
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: Montana
BIG SOUTH: Coastal Carolina
BIG 10: Wisconsin
BIG WEST: UC Davis
COLONIAL: Northeastern
CUSA: Louisiana Tech
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Harvard
MAAC: Manhattan
MAC: Central Michigan
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MVC: Northern Iowa
MWC: Boise State
NEC: St Francis NY
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PAC 12: Arizona
PATRIOT: Lafayette
SEC: Kentucky
SOUTHERN: Wofford
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F Austin
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
SUN BELT: Georgia State
WCC: Gonzaga
WAC: New Mexico State
26 schools that I have identified as at large locks....
Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wichita State, Utah, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence, Butler, St John's, Xavier, Dayton, Virginia Commonwealth, San Diego State, Cincinnati
that takes care of 58 of the 68 bids. There are about 19 schools competing for just 10 bids. Here is the bubble pecking order....
IN
1. (30) OREGON 22-8: While the Ducks do not necessarily have a distingushing profile, the fact that they do garner the 2nd seed in the Pac 12 tourney means a lot. Ducks finished 13-5 in league play by winning 12 of their last 14 and that's boosted that overall rpi number. The 8-6 record vs rpi 100 schools is strong...wins over Utah, and two bubbles UCLA and Ilinois but they are only 1-4 vs top 50 and that's why they remain just out of lock status. Note a loss to fellow bubble Ole Miss. They draw the winner of Colorado/Oregon State in the Pac 12 quarters. Ducks could make it academic with a win as a loss could make the vulnerable in a case of some tourney upsets
2. (38) GEORGIA 20-10: With 4 SEC bubbles battling it out heading into the SEC tourney, going to leave the Bulldogs short of locking them in the field just yet. They do seem to have a more consistent profile and the edge on the other 3 bubbles but the lack of big wins is still an issue. There are no top 25 wins here and just 2-5 vs top 50 with those wins both against Ole Miss. They beat Texas A&M but lost to LSU. The 9-8 vs top 100 rpi is their strong point OOC wise their best wins are schools like SHU and Kansas State. Had to face Kentucky 2x and lost both in competitive games. There are a few bad losses thrown in as well but that's not unusual around the bubble. They possibly draw Ole Miss in the SEC quarters, a win there would lock them in of course but if they don't things get a little murkier. They could be okay with such a weak bubble but you never know.
3. (48) LSU 22-9: Tigers followed a rough loss to Tennessee with a big road win at Arkansas to buoy their resume heading into the SEC tourney. A lot to like here in terms of wins....5-2 vs top 50 and a stellar 12-5 vs top 100 rpi schools. A win at WVU, a sweep of Ole Miss, a win over Georgia and a close loss to Kentucky. So why are they on the bubble instead of being locked in. Well its the bad losses...Missouri, Mississippi St, and Auburn plus the fact they got swept by another SEC bubble Texas A&M. Tigers have a bye in the first round of the SEC tourney but look who could be up next in the quarters....that's right Texas A&M. Could LSU survive a third loss to the Aggies who right now are on the wrong side of the bubble? They might but its going to be at the mercy of what happens with the other bubble schools. Tigers would be better off just emphatically stamping their ticket with a win in that game.
4. (45) OKLAHOMA STATE 17-12: Cowboys could not spring the upset at WVU and now with 5 losses in their last 6 they are in a serious tailspin. What was once an impressive profile now has some holes. The overall record could sport 13 losses, the road/neutral mark is just 6-8. You have two bad losses to TCU and Texas Tech. No one can take their wins away...6-8 vs top 50 and 8-10 vs top 100 are quite strong. The big win was Kansas but they swept Baylor. Important is the sweep over Texas and a win over Tulsa, two bubbles. The SOS of 19 will be seen as a huge plus. The committee is supposed to judge on body of work not how you finish in the season so lets see what happens here. Cowboys get Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarters and if they do not win that game they really are leaving it up to the judgment of the selection committee rather than the body of work.
5. (57) INDIANA 19-12: Hooisers are another team sputtering after building up an impressive resume. First the good....3 top 25 wins....4-8 vs top 50 and 8-11 vs top 100. Those numbers are good to go. Quality Big 10 wins against Maryland, Ohio State, and Illinois. Impressive OOC wins vs SMU and Butler. Only one loss outside the rpi top 100 to Northwestern. SOS is a fine 25. Like with OSU is it really body of work or does how you finish matter. Indiana has lost 8 of 12 and hasn't beaten a team with a pulse since mid January. The road/neutral mark is a woeful 4-8. The overall rpi of 57 is the worst of any school on the right side of the bubble currently. Coming in as the 7th seed in the Big 12 tourney, they will face a dangerous Northwestern again. Could their profile absorb another loss? Do they need to also beat Maryland to feel safe again? I think the answer to both questions is maybe. Indiana has allowed themselves to creep to a territory where if they do not win as much as possible there are reasons the committee can point to for leaving them out.
6. (49) MISSISSIPPI 20-11: Rebels ended the year by losing their last 3 of 4 including key games to LSU and Georgia which left them 0-4 vs those schools on the year. Clearly they have moved behind them in the pecking order. Still there is some good here. OOC wins over Cincy and at Oregon. SEC wins at Arkansas and over Tex A&M. While the 3-7 mark vs top 50 is iffy the 8-8 vs top 100 is solid enough. The SOS is a strong 39., 11-4 on the road. Three bad losses could haunt them...Western Kentucky, TCU, and Charleston Southern. Must be aware of the bubble Texas A&M lurking below them, that's why its important Ole Miss defeat Georgia in that SEC quarters matchup. While it might not elevate their profile over Georgia, it will be enough of a statement to keep them on the good side of the bubble. A loss opens up questions and like every other bubble school you just do not want that.
7. (44) BRIGHAM YOUNG: 23-8: Cougars flirted with disaster in the WCC quarters against Santa Clara but now after hammering Portland last night find themselves in the WCC finals matched up with Gonzaga. Can they do it again? I don't think BYU will lose much stock if they can play a competitive game. They handed the Zags just their 2nd loss of the season a couple weeks back. That win is a shining light on the Cougars resume which does not have a lot of beef. Just 1-3 vs top 50 and only 4-5 vs top 100. Best wins were Stanford, UMass, and St Marys all NIT schools. A few bad losses to the likes of Pepperdine2x and San Diego are dragging the overall rpi number. This is a team where I keep hearing about passing the eye test and its true. A loss tonight will put them on the last 4 in/last 4 out line no question but I think the Cougars need to worry more about schools from the AAC like a Tulsa or someone from the A10 like a Richmond knocking them out rather than a Power 5 school
8. (26) COLORADO STATE 25-5: Rams are the meh school of the bubble. Sure there is that gaudy win total of 25 and the insanely good overall rpi of 26 but you have to wonder can a team get in the tourney just by splitting with its two fellow top 50 rpi conference schools. Because that's all that is here..wins over Boise State and San Diego State. 2-2 vs top 50 and 6-2 vs top 100 but even there the best win was Georgia State. 15 of their 25 wins are top schools beyond 150 rpi. They got swept by mediocre Wyoming and have another bad loss to New Mexico. Still the NCAA selection committee does like the midmajor and that's what the Mountain West has become this year. Like BYU, the Rams need to worry about the Tulsas, ODUs and Richmonds of the world. If the Rams can get by Fresno State and beat San Diego State in the MWC semis I think they will lock in but failing to reach the tourney finals and they will be sweating a lot come 6 PM Selection Sunday.
9. (42) TEXAS 19-12: Longhorns were left for dead last week having lost 8 of 11 and dropping to 6-10 in Big 12 play but resuscitated their hopes big time with an unlikely win over Baylor and then by knocking off unpredictable Kansas State. Now all of sudden the strong schedule strength ranked 11th may pay off. Texas is just only 3-11 vs top 50 but that win over Baylor was needed to answer questions that the Longhorns were proving that they couldn't beat any top competition. The mark is just 6-12 vs top 100. There are some nice wins here though....Iowa, WVU, Baylor. Will the committee be true to their words...as asked before is the criteria they say they evaluate schools on the actual truth. If so then SOS for them should trump any late season slide. Texas will get another opportunity for a quality win vs Iowa State in the Big 12 tourney but they cannot afford a slip up vs Texas Tech in the opening round. The big question is do they need that win vs ISU, I would strongly suggest they get it.
10. (34) TEMPLE 22-9: Owls are still surviving off of that win over Kansas way back but may need a trip to the AAC finals to secure an at large bid. At just 2-7 vs top 50, the Owls have fallen behind SMU and Cincy in any AAC pecking order and have to worry about Tulsa right behind them. Tulsa is particularly a problem because they swept the Owls this year. The 7-8 mark vs top 100 is solid enough, they did split with Cincy. That win over Louisiana Tech is starting to look better. Only one real bad loss that in a rivalry game to Temple. Owls did have injuries earlier in the year. AAC quarters gives them Memphis which will not be an easy game, a loss there could really impact their hopes but the Owls may also have to pull off an upset of SMU. Perhaps the most bubblicious school of all.
OUT
11. (55) TEXAS A&M 20-10: Aggies have seen their stock plummet over the last two weeks. That's what happens when you cannot pick up a quality win and lose to NIT schools in the SEC. The best thing to say here is that there are no bad losses. No losses to school outside the top 100 rpi. However the only positives here are the two wins over LSU and despite that the Tigers have a much better profile to overcome those losses to come out ahead of the Aggies. Just 2-6 vs top 50, the 7-8 mark is full of medicore SEC schools and the best OOC win is Sam Houston State. Looking like after a game with MSU/Auburn the Aggies draw LSU once again. Its pretty much a must win for them, not sure that even puts them in the field, but with Kentucky looming after that its a tough go either way. A loss to LSU could prove fatal unless the bubble collapses around them.
12. (60) MIAMI 20-11: Hurricanes kept themselves alive heading into the ACC tourney with the win at Pitt. Still a lot of work to do. The feather in the cap win of course is the win at Duke. Wins over NC State and Illinois are solid but that makes just 2-7 vs top 50 and the mediocrity of the ACC doesn't make that 7-7 mark vs top 100 all that impressive. Then throw in 4 bad losses...Wake, FSU, Ga Tech and the worst of all that glaring 28 point loss to rpi 153 Eastern Kentucky. Their path in the ACC matches them up with the winner of WF/VT and then Notre Dame, will beating ND be enough, probably not so they will likely have to go out and beat Duke again and reach the ACC finals.
13. (52) UCLA 19-12: Bruins beat USC last week but have now seen themselves tumble from in the field to last team out. Hurting their profile is schools like Oregon State and Cal falling out of the top 100 and Stanford starting to hit the skids. Just 2-7 vs top 100 and now only 4-9 vs top 100. The Bruins can only ride a win over Utah and Oregon so far. Their best OOC win Long Beach State. While the SOS of 33 is really nice there just are not enough wins here at the moment. Plus note the simply abominable 3-11 road/neutral mark. Yet opportunity exists, if they can get by ASU in the Pac 12 quarters, Arizona awaits. A win there may not necessarily lock them in but its going to give them a strong argument to get in, something they simply do not have now. Will the Pac 12 only wind up with 3?
14. (36) OLD DOMINION 24-6: Monarchs staying in flight due to a weak bubble and some really nice OOC wins. LSU, VCU, La Tech, Georgia St, and Richmond....4 of whom are likely NCAA participants. That's 6-2 vs top 100, an excellent number for a mid major, a strong overall rpi of 36...that gaudy win total of 24 which could go to 26 if they get to the CUSA final. The obvious drawback here are the 5 conference losses in a terrible league. Only La Tech/UTEP have a pulse in this conference yet ODU lost to the likes of Middle Tennessee State, UAB, and Texas Southern. 15 of their wins are to schools plus 150 rpi. They are the most interesting team on the bubble. If any case can be made for a midmajor to go its them but how can a school from a 16th ranked conference that didn't win its regular season championship and didn't win its conference tournament get an at large bid. If they make the finals they better beat La Tech and just win the autobid.
15. (59) ILLINOIS 19-12: Illini are clearly in trouble following a missed opportunity to pick up a much needed quality win at Purdue. There just is not enough right now. 5-11 vs rpi top 100 does not get it done. There are some things to like here keeping their hopes alive though. A win over Baylor OOC, wins in league over Maryland, Purdue and at Michigan State. Much of the early season was hurt by an injury to their star player. Note losses to fellow bubbles Miami, Indiana and Oregon. The road/neutral mark of 5-10 is atrocious. Illiniois will simply have to make the Big 10 finals to get in. That means beating Michigan, then taking down top seeded Wisconsin and then either Iowa/Purdue. I don't think the Wisky win will be enough given their warts. Up to them to prove they are worthy.
16. (54) RICHMOND 19-12: Every year a school comes out of nowhere down the stretch to float near the bubble and the Spiders are that team this year. Nothing sensational here but when you beat VCU 2x and also have a win over regular season champ Davidson and grab the double bye in the A10 tourney as the 4 seed that's enough to be considered. Some strong scheduling too reflected in a SOS of 35. 3-5 vs top 50 and 7-9 vs top 100 are workable numbers. They are finishing strong with 6 straight wins. Ultimately though its the 3 bad losses that really hurt their profile....Wake, James Madison and George Mason. The Spiders best hope is to make it to the A10 finals meaning another win vs VCU and then taking down Davidson again. If they can do that, they will have a 50/50 chance of sneaking in
17. (47) TULSA 21-8: Heading into last week the Hurricane were first in the AAC but could not pick up a quality win against either Cincy or SMU and now are in serious trouble. There is just no flesh on their profile. Yes they finished 2nd in the AAC at 14-4 but all they have to show for it is two wins over Temple a team dangerously close to the Mendoza line themselves. Their best OOC win is Big East bottom feeder Creighton. While there is only one bad loss here Oral Roberts, the 2-6 mark vs top 50 and 5-7 vs top 100 does not seem enough. They will need to beat Houston/Tulane then knock off Cincy to reach the AAC finals. Beating Cincy will not elevate them over the Bearcats either so Tulsa may just have to win the whole damn tournament at this point.
18. (58) STANFORD 18-12: Perhaps no bubble school's stock has plummeted more in the last month than that of the Cardinal. Losers of 7 of 10 including 3 in a row, there isn't much to recommend here anymore. There is the win over a shaky Texas and I guess you can say that win over Wofford who is dancing and now in the rpi top 50 is nice but beyond that you see 2 losses to UCLA plus losses to bubbles Oregon and BYU. 2-6 vs top 50 and only 5-9 vs top 100. Bad losses to Washington State and Colorado., a poor 5-9 road/neutral mark. A 9-9 record in a Pac 12 that has fallen on hard times. To even have a shot they will need a run to the Pac 12 finals meaning wins against Washington, Utah, and Oregon. Seems pretty unlikely but if they do that then we will revisit their chances.
19. (70) MURRAY STATE 25-5: Heartbreaking defeat to Belmont in the Ohio Valley final, that after going undefeated in league play, winning 24 in a row and cracking the AP top 25. However as much as people want to give credit to them and thrown them a bone as an at large team in the NCAA tournament. The resume says otherwise. Look they had an outstanding season but you cannot lose to a medicore Belmont in your biggest game of the season. If some other things were strong on their resume perhaps a case could be made. The Racers best win is Illinois State who is headed to the NIT and that is their only top 100 rpi win. In their two other games against legit competition they lost by 27 to Xavier and 35 to Horizon leader Valpo. They have a hideous loss to AAC bottom feeder Houston and another bad loss to Portland. Looking at the losses moreso than the wins here. 21 of those wins were to schools with rpis over 150 and 13 of them to schools over 250. The OVC is the 23rd ranked conference. Murray State may have blown through their conference competition but came up small against their non conference foes where one needs to look to see if they are worthy of an at large. Other schools like La Tech, ODU, BYU, Colorado State, Richmond, and Tulsa all have played better competition and beat them so I don't see how or why Murray State would deserve to go in over any of those type of schools
LAST 4 IN: TEMPLE, TEXAS, COLORADO STATE, BRIGHAM YOUNG
LAST 4 OUT: TEXAS A&M, MIAMI, UCLA, OLD DOMINION
Multiple Bid Leagues
Big 10: 7
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
ACC: 6
SEC: 5
A10: 3
Pac 12: 3
AAC: 3
MWC: 3
MVC: 2
WCC: 2
This post was edited on 3/10 12:42 PM by bac2therac
Here are the 32 projected automatic bid winners...
AMERICA EAST: Albany
AMERICAN: SMU
ATLANTIC 10: Davidson
ACC: Virginia
ATLANTIC SUN: North Florida
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: Montana
BIG SOUTH: Coastal Carolina
BIG 10: Wisconsin
BIG WEST: UC Davis
COLONIAL: Northeastern
CUSA: Louisiana Tech
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Harvard
MAAC: Manhattan
MAC: Central Michigan
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MVC: Northern Iowa
MWC: Boise State
NEC: St Francis NY
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PAC 12: Arizona
PATRIOT: Lafayette
SEC: Kentucky
SOUTHERN: Wofford
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F Austin
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
SUN BELT: Georgia State
WCC: Gonzaga
WAC: New Mexico State
26 schools that I have identified as at large locks....
Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wichita State, Utah, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence, Butler, St John's, Xavier, Dayton, Virginia Commonwealth, San Diego State, Cincinnati
that takes care of 58 of the 68 bids. There are about 19 schools competing for just 10 bids. Here is the bubble pecking order....
IN
1. (30) OREGON 22-8: While the Ducks do not necessarily have a distingushing profile, the fact that they do garner the 2nd seed in the Pac 12 tourney means a lot. Ducks finished 13-5 in league play by winning 12 of their last 14 and that's boosted that overall rpi number. The 8-6 record vs rpi 100 schools is strong...wins over Utah, and two bubbles UCLA and Ilinois but they are only 1-4 vs top 50 and that's why they remain just out of lock status. Note a loss to fellow bubble Ole Miss. They draw the winner of Colorado/Oregon State in the Pac 12 quarters. Ducks could make it academic with a win as a loss could make the vulnerable in a case of some tourney upsets
2. (38) GEORGIA 20-10: With 4 SEC bubbles battling it out heading into the SEC tourney, going to leave the Bulldogs short of locking them in the field just yet. They do seem to have a more consistent profile and the edge on the other 3 bubbles but the lack of big wins is still an issue. There are no top 25 wins here and just 2-5 vs top 50 with those wins both against Ole Miss. They beat Texas A&M but lost to LSU. The 9-8 vs top 100 rpi is their strong point OOC wise their best wins are schools like SHU and Kansas State. Had to face Kentucky 2x and lost both in competitive games. There are a few bad losses thrown in as well but that's not unusual around the bubble. They possibly draw Ole Miss in the SEC quarters, a win there would lock them in of course but if they don't things get a little murkier. They could be okay with such a weak bubble but you never know.
3. (48) LSU 22-9: Tigers followed a rough loss to Tennessee with a big road win at Arkansas to buoy their resume heading into the SEC tourney. A lot to like here in terms of wins....5-2 vs top 50 and a stellar 12-5 vs top 100 rpi schools. A win at WVU, a sweep of Ole Miss, a win over Georgia and a close loss to Kentucky. So why are they on the bubble instead of being locked in. Well its the bad losses...Missouri, Mississippi St, and Auburn plus the fact they got swept by another SEC bubble Texas A&M. Tigers have a bye in the first round of the SEC tourney but look who could be up next in the quarters....that's right Texas A&M. Could LSU survive a third loss to the Aggies who right now are on the wrong side of the bubble? They might but its going to be at the mercy of what happens with the other bubble schools. Tigers would be better off just emphatically stamping their ticket with a win in that game.
4. (45) OKLAHOMA STATE 17-12: Cowboys could not spring the upset at WVU and now with 5 losses in their last 6 they are in a serious tailspin. What was once an impressive profile now has some holes. The overall record could sport 13 losses, the road/neutral mark is just 6-8. You have two bad losses to TCU and Texas Tech. No one can take their wins away...6-8 vs top 50 and 8-10 vs top 100 are quite strong. The big win was Kansas but they swept Baylor. Important is the sweep over Texas and a win over Tulsa, two bubbles. The SOS of 19 will be seen as a huge plus. The committee is supposed to judge on body of work not how you finish in the season so lets see what happens here. Cowboys get Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarters and if they do not win that game they really are leaving it up to the judgment of the selection committee rather than the body of work.
5. (57) INDIANA 19-12: Hooisers are another team sputtering after building up an impressive resume. First the good....3 top 25 wins....4-8 vs top 50 and 8-11 vs top 100. Those numbers are good to go. Quality Big 10 wins against Maryland, Ohio State, and Illinois. Impressive OOC wins vs SMU and Butler. Only one loss outside the rpi top 100 to Northwestern. SOS is a fine 25. Like with OSU is it really body of work or does how you finish matter. Indiana has lost 8 of 12 and hasn't beaten a team with a pulse since mid January. The road/neutral mark is a woeful 4-8. The overall rpi of 57 is the worst of any school on the right side of the bubble currently. Coming in as the 7th seed in the Big 12 tourney, they will face a dangerous Northwestern again. Could their profile absorb another loss? Do they need to also beat Maryland to feel safe again? I think the answer to both questions is maybe. Indiana has allowed themselves to creep to a territory where if they do not win as much as possible there are reasons the committee can point to for leaving them out.
6. (49) MISSISSIPPI 20-11: Rebels ended the year by losing their last 3 of 4 including key games to LSU and Georgia which left them 0-4 vs those schools on the year. Clearly they have moved behind them in the pecking order. Still there is some good here. OOC wins over Cincy and at Oregon. SEC wins at Arkansas and over Tex A&M. While the 3-7 mark vs top 50 is iffy the 8-8 vs top 100 is solid enough. The SOS is a strong 39., 11-4 on the road. Three bad losses could haunt them...Western Kentucky, TCU, and Charleston Southern. Must be aware of the bubble Texas A&M lurking below them, that's why its important Ole Miss defeat Georgia in that SEC quarters matchup. While it might not elevate their profile over Georgia, it will be enough of a statement to keep them on the good side of the bubble. A loss opens up questions and like every other bubble school you just do not want that.
7. (44) BRIGHAM YOUNG: 23-8: Cougars flirted with disaster in the WCC quarters against Santa Clara but now after hammering Portland last night find themselves in the WCC finals matched up with Gonzaga. Can they do it again? I don't think BYU will lose much stock if they can play a competitive game. They handed the Zags just their 2nd loss of the season a couple weeks back. That win is a shining light on the Cougars resume which does not have a lot of beef. Just 1-3 vs top 50 and only 4-5 vs top 100. Best wins were Stanford, UMass, and St Marys all NIT schools. A few bad losses to the likes of Pepperdine2x and San Diego are dragging the overall rpi number. This is a team where I keep hearing about passing the eye test and its true. A loss tonight will put them on the last 4 in/last 4 out line no question but I think the Cougars need to worry more about schools from the AAC like a Tulsa or someone from the A10 like a Richmond knocking them out rather than a Power 5 school
8. (26) COLORADO STATE 25-5: Rams are the meh school of the bubble. Sure there is that gaudy win total of 25 and the insanely good overall rpi of 26 but you have to wonder can a team get in the tourney just by splitting with its two fellow top 50 rpi conference schools. Because that's all that is here..wins over Boise State and San Diego State. 2-2 vs top 50 and 6-2 vs top 100 but even there the best win was Georgia State. 15 of their 25 wins are top schools beyond 150 rpi. They got swept by mediocre Wyoming and have another bad loss to New Mexico. Still the NCAA selection committee does like the midmajor and that's what the Mountain West has become this year. Like BYU, the Rams need to worry about the Tulsas, ODUs and Richmonds of the world. If the Rams can get by Fresno State and beat San Diego State in the MWC semis I think they will lock in but failing to reach the tourney finals and they will be sweating a lot come 6 PM Selection Sunday.
9. (42) TEXAS 19-12: Longhorns were left for dead last week having lost 8 of 11 and dropping to 6-10 in Big 12 play but resuscitated their hopes big time with an unlikely win over Baylor and then by knocking off unpredictable Kansas State. Now all of sudden the strong schedule strength ranked 11th may pay off. Texas is just only 3-11 vs top 50 but that win over Baylor was needed to answer questions that the Longhorns were proving that they couldn't beat any top competition. The mark is just 6-12 vs top 100. There are some nice wins here though....Iowa, WVU, Baylor. Will the committee be true to their words...as asked before is the criteria they say they evaluate schools on the actual truth. If so then SOS for them should trump any late season slide. Texas will get another opportunity for a quality win vs Iowa State in the Big 12 tourney but they cannot afford a slip up vs Texas Tech in the opening round. The big question is do they need that win vs ISU, I would strongly suggest they get it.
10. (34) TEMPLE 22-9: Owls are still surviving off of that win over Kansas way back but may need a trip to the AAC finals to secure an at large bid. At just 2-7 vs top 50, the Owls have fallen behind SMU and Cincy in any AAC pecking order and have to worry about Tulsa right behind them. Tulsa is particularly a problem because they swept the Owls this year. The 7-8 mark vs top 100 is solid enough, they did split with Cincy. That win over Louisiana Tech is starting to look better. Only one real bad loss that in a rivalry game to Temple. Owls did have injuries earlier in the year. AAC quarters gives them Memphis which will not be an easy game, a loss there could really impact their hopes but the Owls may also have to pull off an upset of SMU. Perhaps the most bubblicious school of all.
OUT
11. (55) TEXAS A&M 20-10: Aggies have seen their stock plummet over the last two weeks. That's what happens when you cannot pick up a quality win and lose to NIT schools in the SEC. The best thing to say here is that there are no bad losses. No losses to school outside the top 100 rpi. However the only positives here are the two wins over LSU and despite that the Tigers have a much better profile to overcome those losses to come out ahead of the Aggies. Just 2-6 vs top 50, the 7-8 mark is full of medicore SEC schools and the best OOC win is Sam Houston State. Looking like after a game with MSU/Auburn the Aggies draw LSU once again. Its pretty much a must win for them, not sure that even puts them in the field, but with Kentucky looming after that its a tough go either way. A loss to LSU could prove fatal unless the bubble collapses around them.
12. (60) MIAMI 20-11: Hurricanes kept themselves alive heading into the ACC tourney with the win at Pitt. Still a lot of work to do. The feather in the cap win of course is the win at Duke. Wins over NC State and Illinois are solid but that makes just 2-7 vs top 50 and the mediocrity of the ACC doesn't make that 7-7 mark vs top 100 all that impressive. Then throw in 4 bad losses...Wake, FSU, Ga Tech and the worst of all that glaring 28 point loss to rpi 153 Eastern Kentucky. Their path in the ACC matches them up with the winner of WF/VT and then Notre Dame, will beating ND be enough, probably not so they will likely have to go out and beat Duke again and reach the ACC finals.
13. (52) UCLA 19-12: Bruins beat USC last week but have now seen themselves tumble from in the field to last team out. Hurting their profile is schools like Oregon State and Cal falling out of the top 100 and Stanford starting to hit the skids. Just 2-7 vs top 100 and now only 4-9 vs top 100. The Bruins can only ride a win over Utah and Oregon so far. Their best OOC win Long Beach State. While the SOS of 33 is really nice there just are not enough wins here at the moment. Plus note the simply abominable 3-11 road/neutral mark. Yet opportunity exists, if they can get by ASU in the Pac 12 quarters, Arizona awaits. A win there may not necessarily lock them in but its going to give them a strong argument to get in, something they simply do not have now. Will the Pac 12 only wind up with 3?
14. (36) OLD DOMINION 24-6: Monarchs staying in flight due to a weak bubble and some really nice OOC wins. LSU, VCU, La Tech, Georgia St, and Richmond....4 of whom are likely NCAA participants. That's 6-2 vs top 100, an excellent number for a mid major, a strong overall rpi of 36...that gaudy win total of 24 which could go to 26 if they get to the CUSA final. The obvious drawback here are the 5 conference losses in a terrible league. Only La Tech/UTEP have a pulse in this conference yet ODU lost to the likes of Middle Tennessee State, UAB, and Texas Southern. 15 of their wins are to schools plus 150 rpi. They are the most interesting team on the bubble. If any case can be made for a midmajor to go its them but how can a school from a 16th ranked conference that didn't win its regular season championship and didn't win its conference tournament get an at large bid. If they make the finals they better beat La Tech and just win the autobid.
15. (59) ILLINOIS 19-12: Illini are clearly in trouble following a missed opportunity to pick up a much needed quality win at Purdue. There just is not enough right now. 5-11 vs rpi top 100 does not get it done. There are some things to like here keeping their hopes alive though. A win over Baylor OOC, wins in league over Maryland, Purdue and at Michigan State. Much of the early season was hurt by an injury to their star player. Note losses to fellow bubbles Miami, Indiana and Oregon. The road/neutral mark of 5-10 is atrocious. Illiniois will simply have to make the Big 10 finals to get in. That means beating Michigan, then taking down top seeded Wisconsin and then either Iowa/Purdue. I don't think the Wisky win will be enough given their warts. Up to them to prove they are worthy.
16. (54) RICHMOND 19-12: Every year a school comes out of nowhere down the stretch to float near the bubble and the Spiders are that team this year. Nothing sensational here but when you beat VCU 2x and also have a win over regular season champ Davidson and grab the double bye in the A10 tourney as the 4 seed that's enough to be considered. Some strong scheduling too reflected in a SOS of 35. 3-5 vs top 50 and 7-9 vs top 100 are workable numbers. They are finishing strong with 6 straight wins. Ultimately though its the 3 bad losses that really hurt their profile....Wake, James Madison and George Mason. The Spiders best hope is to make it to the A10 finals meaning another win vs VCU and then taking down Davidson again. If they can do that, they will have a 50/50 chance of sneaking in
17. (47) TULSA 21-8: Heading into last week the Hurricane were first in the AAC but could not pick up a quality win against either Cincy or SMU and now are in serious trouble. There is just no flesh on their profile. Yes they finished 2nd in the AAC at 14-4 but all they have to show for it is two wins over Temple a team dangerously close to the Mendoza line themselves. Their best OOC win is Big East bottom feeder Creighton. While there is only one bad loss here Oral Roberts, the 2-6 mark vs top 50 and 5-7 vs top 100 does not seem enough. They will need to beat Houston/Tulane then knock off Cincy to reach the AAC finals. Beating Cincy will not elevate them over the Bearcats either so Tulsa may just have to win the whole damn tournament at this point.
18. (58) STANFORD 18-12: Perhaps no bubble school's stock has plummeted more in the last month than that of the Cardinal. Losers of 7 of 10 including 3 in a row, there isn't much to recommend here anymore. There is the win over a shaky Texas and I guess you can say that win over Wofford who is dancing and now in the rpi top 50 is nice but beyond that you see 2 losses to UCLA plus losses to bubbles Oregon and BYU. 2-6 vs top 50 and only 5-9 vs top 100. Bad losses to Washington State and Colorado., a poor 5-9 road/neutral mark. A 9-9 record in a Pac 12 that has fallen on hard times. To even have a shot they will need a run to the Pac 12 finals meaning wins against Washington, Utah, and Oregon. Seems pretty unlikely but if they do that then we will revisit their chances.
19. (70) MURRAY STATE 25-5: Heartbreaking defeat to Belmont in the Ohio Valley final, that after going undefeated in league play, winning 24 in a row and cracking the AP top 25. However as much as people want to give credit to them and thrown them a bone as an at large team in the NCAA tournament. The resume says otherwise. Look they had an outstanding season but you cannot lose to a medicore Belmont in your biggest game of the season. If some other things were strong on their resume perhaps a case could be made. The Racers best win is Illinois State who is headed to the NIT and that is their only top 100 rpi win. In their two other games against legit competition they lost by 27 to Xavier and 35 to Horizon leader Valpo. They have a hideous loss to AAC bottom feeder Houston and another bad loss to Portland. Looking at the losses moreso than the wins here. 21 of those wins were to schools with rpis over 150 and 13 of them to schools over 250. The OVC is the 23rd ranked conference. Murray State may have blown through their conference competition but came up small against their non conference foes where one needs to look to see if they are worthy of an at large. Other schools like La Tech, ODU, BYU, Colorado State, Richmond, and Tulsa all have played better competition and beat them so I don't see how or why Murray State would deserve to go in over any of those type of schools
LAST 4 IN: TEMPLE, TEXAS, COLORADO STATE, BRIGHAM YOUNG
LAST 4 OUT: TEXAS A&M, MIAMI, UCLA, OLD DOMINION
Multiple Bid Leagues
Big 10: 7
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
ACC: 6
SEC: 5
A10: 3
Pac 12: 3
AAC: 3
MWC: 3
MVC: 2
WCC: 2
This post was edited on 3/10 12:42 PM by bac2therac
