BC's Punt with 1:57 Left in 4th

[PSAL_Hoops]

These threads are great. When the odds are so low, you can consider a lot of crazy scenerios and Hafley isn’t taking major heat for any decision since they probably lose anyway.

No matter how you look at it though, the combo of punting and calling that time out was a poor decision by BC (albeit their options were bad to begin with). The time out gave us more time to get set and reduced the chance of an RU muff (we had the option not to field it and let the ball roll if AC wasn’t sure he could handle it - I’m sure that was discussed when we regrouped). And the time out ensured that if RU ran 3 run plays BC would be getting the ball back with at best 10 seconds on the clock vs. potentially close to a minute if they had tried to get a punt off ASAP and it still would’ve been more time if they had to take a delay of game.

 

[mdh2003]

If your going to punt, you don’t take the time out. You take a delay of game if you can’t regroup. Burning that time out basically guaranteed them only one snap with a 3 and out.

Yeah, but letting the time run down then or by RU gives the same result on the clock, except also punting from deep in the end zone.

But I see your point - they could have called a fair catch on the punt, at say the 5, have about 12 seconds, and one timeout. Probably better than at the 30, 4 secs, no timeouts.

 

[robcac26]

I did not contradict myself. The scenario I mentioned has both teams going for a 2-point conversion. The first team risks a win or tie and therefore has more to lose.

The reason I say it's a contradiction is because you are saying it's a bad idea for the team with the lead to go for 2 because they could end up losing IF they miss the conversion, then give up a touchdown, and then give up a 2-point conversion--which is a lot that needs to go wrong in a short amount of time--but then it appears you think it's a good idea for the team that could tie it by just kicking the extra point to instead go for 2 when if they don't get it, they lose. Again, both teams seal the win by converting the 2, but the team with the lead is still probably going to win even if they don't convert it. The team that could tie it with an extra point loses the game by not converting the 2.

 

[wheezer]

If your going to punt, you don’t take the time out. You take a delay of game if you can’t regroup. Burning that time out basically guaranteed them only one snap with a 3 and out.

First off, as we know, BC had little chance of winning once we got to the 4th down

if BC did not use the time out and punted, more seconds tick off, and instead maybe we could kill the clock within the 4 downs we had the ball and not punt ourselves

I absolutely would not have caught their punt, would not risk a bobble there
Yes it worked out, but I would not have even let that possibility exist

 

[BillyC80]

The reason I say it's a contradiction is because you are saying it's a bad idea for the team with the lead to go for 2 because they could end up losing IF they miss the conversion, then give up a touchdown, and then give up a 2-point conversion--which is a lot that needs to go wrong in a short amount of time--but then it appears you think it's a good idea for the team that could tie it by just kicking the extra point to instead go for 2 when if they don't get it, they lose. Again, both teams seal the win by converting the 2, but the team with the lead is still probably going to win even if they don't convert it. The team that could tie it with an extra point loses the game by not converting the 2.

Sounds like we both agree that an 8-point lead is a very strong position to be in, in the endgame situation. Would hate to see us give that up for a weaker 7-point lead that makes a tie easier for the opponent and in a rare case could lead to a loss if they go for 2 and get it.

 

[Yeah Baby]

There was no chance they complete a 4th and 25. The chances of blocking our punt was not much better. The game was over and Hafley knew it but he probably took his chances on blocking the punt or a big return. The game was over no matter what he decided there.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

First off, as we know, BC had little chance of winning once we got to the 4th down

if BC did not use the time out and punted, more seconds tick off, and instead maybe we could kill the clock within the 4 downs we had the ball and not punt ourselves

I absolutely would not have caught their punt, would not risk a bobble there
Yes it worked out, but I would not have even let that possibility exist

Huh? No way. If they don’t call time out there they have another time out to stop the clock on another down when we have the ball. In every iteration imaginable what they did eats more time than saving that TO. As stated, their chances of winning were

 

[RUChoppin]

These threads are great. When the odds are so low, you can consider a lot of crazy scenerios and Hafley isn’t taking major heat for any decision since they probably lose anyway.

No matter how you look at it though, the combo of punting and calling that time out was a poor decision by BC (albeit their options were bad to begin with). The time out gave us more time to get set and reduced the chance of an RU muff (we had the option not to field it and let the ball roll if AC wasn’t sure he could handle it - I’m sure that was discussed when we regrouped). And the time out ensured that if RU ran 3 run plays BC would be getting the ball back with at best 10 seconds on the clock vs. potentially close to a minute if they had tried to get a punt off ASAP and it still would’ve been more time if they had to take a delay of game.

Yeah, burning that time out was definitely a bad decision. Almost felt like he wanted to think it over before making a call, but if he was going to punt he should have done that right away and kept one more time out to stop the clock.

 

[wheezer]

Huh? No way. If they don’t call time out there they have another time out to stop the clock on another down when we have the ball. In every iteration imaginable what they did eats more time than saving that TO. As stated, their chances of winning were

You are right about having the two time outs on our possession being possibly better, I would not argue that

Possibly Hadley did not want to make a knee jerk decision on either going for it on 4th down or punt
He had not figured on two sacks, he used the time out to then decide

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

There was no chance they complete a 4th and 25. The chances of blocking our punt was not much better. The game was over and Hafley knew it but he probably took his chances on blocking the punt or a big return. The game was over no matter what he decided there.

The odds were low regardless but the game wasn’t over. Crazy things can happen. it’s not “no chance” of completing 4th and 25th after calling TO to regroup (it’s a low percentage, but by no means is it zero). Punt block is also very low chance especially up against a star like Korsak in there and I’m sure that’s why AC had the green light to field the punt which assured that we started with good field position and wouldn’t face a 4th down situation in their FG range.

But the bottom line is - if BC doesn’t call that time out, they get the ball back with at least 45 seconds left in the game following a 3 and out. Time out helped us more than them. It was a really bad call in combination with the punt no matter how you look at it. The only reason it’s not getting more attention is because the odds were low anyway. Our fans would go ballistic if our game clock management was that bad.

 

[ScarletDave]

If we’re only looking at the reality of what happened the worst thing he actually did was take the timeout before the punt. They had a big return and if no running into the kicker they would have had the ball at around the 40 with 45 seconds instead of 4 seconds.

 

[miker183]

Holy shit - was the RU section mic’d up or are we just that friggen Jersey loud! Love it.

Really believe that when we fill SHI Stadium we can make that place absolute Hell for opposing teams.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

You are right about having the two time outs on our possession being possibly better, I would not argue that

Possibly Hadley did not want to make a knee jerk decision on either going for it on 4th down or punt
He had not figured on two sacks, he used the time out to then decide

Probably - but as a coach it’s your job to be prepared for what you would do in these situations.

 

[wheezer]

Really believe that when we fill SHI Stadium we can make that place absolute Hell for opposing teams.

I was in the upper deck PP section
It had a better view of the field and play, but not nearly as full as the P section directly below, and even though we were fairly loud, not as loud as below us

 

[Purple-Ed]

Anyone still questioning the decision watch the LSU-FSU game last night? FSU punts with 1 min left and the LSU guy muffs the punt. Then, FSU just needing to run out the clock, fumbles and gives LSU another chance which they turn into a 99-yard TD drive after doing nothing the first 55 mins of the game.

Amen. Fielding that punt was waaaaaay beyond stupid. I was at the game and my friend and
I both said the same thing.

 

[Yeah Baby]

The odds were low regardless but the game wasn’t over. Crazy things can happen. it’s not “no chance” of completing 4th and 25th after calling TO to regroup (it’s a low percentage, but by no means is it zero). Punt block is also very low chance especially up against a star like Korsak in there and I’m sure that’s why AC had the green light to field the punt which assured that we started with good field position and wouldn’t face a 4th down situation in their FG range.

But the bottom line is - if BC doesn’t call that time out, they get the ball back with at least 45 seconds left in the game following a 3 and out. Time out helped us more than them. It was a really bad call in combination with the punt no matter how you look at it. The only reason it’s not getting more attention is because the odds were low anyway. Our fans would go ballistic if our game clock management was that bad.

If he doesn’t call time out after the sack the clock is ticking while they get the punt team on the field. Anything CAN happen but all are less than 1%. Nothing was going to change the outcome unless we made a mistake which is why he punted to us and took his chances on us making a mistake. by punting he had 2 chances of us making a mistake. By going for it he would have needed a miracle or a mistake by us. Statistically he had more chances by punting but the fact is they had no chance to win that game.

 

[RUChoppin]

If he doesn’t call time out after the sack the clock is ticking while they get the punt team on the field. Anything CAN happen but all are less than 1%. Nothing was going to change the outcome unless we made a mistake which is why he punted to us and took his chances on us making a mistake. by punting he had 2 chances of us making a mistake. By going for it he would have needed a miracle or a mistake by us. Statistically he had more chances by punting but the fact is they had no chance to win that game.

Had they punted without calling the time out, and everything else played out as it did, we would have been punting with about 40-45 seconds left in the game.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

If we’re only looking at the reality of what happened the worst thing he actually did was take the timeout before the punt. They had a big return and if no running into the kicker they would have had the ball at around the 40 with 45 seconds instead of 4 seconds.

Korsak punted to the 2. It was returned to their own 31 yard line.

I guess where I was coming from in the first place is once you’ve called that time out to regroup the math dictates that punting will only leave you with a best case scenerio of having those 4 seconds to work with to either run one Hail Mary play or block our punt and return it for a TD (because they weren’t going to be in FG range).

If your BC you’ve already converted in the game on 11 pass plays of 14 plus yards and several over the 25 you need. I understand that you’ve looked bad the last few plays, but you’ve already had multiple 25+ plays in the game. It’s not impossible. And if the attempt fails, there’s a very good probability you still get a crack at a block return for TD (FG attempt) or another possession on offense if we score sooner.

I’m not buying that the play was to hope for a muff there. We didn’t have to field the punt at all. AC is a veteran player. He wasn’t going to be attempting a difficult fair catch of any kind coming out of a time out. Hafley had to know that.

 

[Yeah Baby]

Had they punted without calling the time out, and everything else played out as it did, we would have been punting with about 40-45 seconds left in the game.

I’m thinking more like 30 max. They had to burn a TO earlier in the half because they didn’t get their punt return unit on the field which is what really killed then. To think they get up after a sack and send the punt team out, get everyone aligned and then snap and Punt would have taken 12 seconds is a big reach. They probably would have saved 10 seconds plus if we’re all debating this after the fact and not coming to one singular conclusion we should all agree that Hafley was under the gun had to decide whether to punt or go for it.

Beat case for Hafley is ge had his punt team ready which is basically admitting defeat, sends them out immediately after the sack and gets the punt off in 20 seconds. If they don’t rough the kicker and they get the ball at the 30 with 24 Seconda left and no timeouts. They could maybe win with a crazy hook and lateral sequence at that point. They also could have run that play on 4th and 25.

All things point to game over and we win.

 

[RUChoppin]

I’m thinking more like 30 max. They had to burn a TO earlier in the half because they didn’t get their punt return unit on the field which is what really killed then. To think they get up after a sack and send the punt team out, get everyone aligned and then snap and Punt would have taken 12 seconds is a big reach. They probably would have saved 10 seconds plus if we’re all debating this after the fact and not coming to one singular conclusion we should all agree that Hafley was under the gun had to decide whether to punt or go for it.

Beat case for Hafley is ge had his punt team ready which is basically admitting defeat, sends them out immediately after the sack and gets the punt off in 20 seconds. If they don’t rough the kicker and they get the ball at the 30 with 24 Seconda left and no timeouts. They could maybe win with a crazy hook and lateral sequence at that point. They also could have run that play on 4th and 25.

All things point to game over and we win.

Having the punt team ready isn't admitting defeat. You're 3rd and 20.... if you don't have your punt team ready, that's just dumb... no matter what point in the game it is.

Had it not been a sack but an incomplete pass, it's still 4th and 20. Did the sack change his mind more than an incomplete pass would have? It's possible the time now was just Hafley not knowing what to do immediately, and have to think it through.

 

[Yeah Baby]

Having the punt team ready isn't admitting defeat. You're 3rd and 20.... if you don't have your punt team ready, that's just dumb... no matter what point in the game it is.

Had it not been a sack but an incomplete pass, it's still 4th and 20. Did the sack change his mind more than an incomplete pass would have? It's possible the time now was just Hafley not knowing what to do immediately, and have to think it through.

If it was incomplete he has time to think so yes the sack forced his hand there. Again, reading above there are so many scenarios to think about and to criticize Hafley for not having 20/20 hindsight in real time is just wrong. The game was over unless we screwed something up. We did not. We actually played really good Football down the stretch.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

If it was incomplete he has time to think so yes the sack forced his hand there. Again, reading above there are so many scenarios to think about and to criticize Hafley for not having 20/20 hindsight in real time is just wrong. The game was over unless we screwed something up. We did not. We actually played really good Football down the stretch.

But it’s not hindsight once you call that time out. At that point, the math dictates that if you punt you need a 3 and out just to have an opportunity to try to block an RU punt and even if you do block, you either have to down it immediately (which would be out of FG range) to have an opportunity for a Hail Mary or make it into the end zone because time is going to expire if not.

As I said previously, BC executed several 25+ plays in the game. The 2 sacks become less relevant after calling a time out. You have one last opportunity to put together a big play and I can’t fathom that the odds of it working aren’t better (significantly so) than the odds above. Again, I’m not buying the potential for an RU muff being a factor at all. We didn’t have to field that punt and AC surely wouldn’t have fielded a remotely difficult kick to handle. It was a fair catch. There was zero chance we were trying for a return (any possible chance went out the window when that time out was called - I’m sure our guys were told fair catch only - if even that.

 

[robcac26]

Sounds like we both agree that an 8-point lead is a very strong position to be in, in the endgame situation. Would hate to see us give that up for a weaker 7-point lead that makes a tie easier for the opponent and in a rare case could lead to a loss if they go for 2 and get it.

Well yeah but my point is that the difference between an 8-point lead and a 9-point lead with time for only one more drive is far greater than the difference between 7 and 8. I think at this point, we both understand each other's arguments and one of us just isn't going to convince the other, so probably no point in continuing to harp on this.

 

[fatsam98]

NSIAP but Hafley has since said they called timeout because they thought they had a play for the 4th and 25 and wanted to talk it over... And ultimately decided to punt. Good for us

 

[robjknight]

Go back to our missed point after. Really costs us 2 points because of missed 2 point try. If we didn’t miss the extra point, we would have been up 3 with 2 minutes to go and not at risk of losing to a BC field goal.