Bubble Watch 2021

[fluoxetine]

Well I was doing this for quite a while last year but honestly haven't had the time or energy this year. But we are coming down to the wire so let's get it going.

I am going to use what I think is a rather expansive definition of bubble team here, which will be any team with >20% and <80% chance of an at-large berth. By this definition Rutgers is a bubble team but we are at the top level of the bubble and it is not time to panic.

The bubble, in order (note I have 37 teams above this level so we are starting at about the 38th spot here.. meaning roughly 10 of these teams will make it depending on how the conference tourneys go)

A couple other notes:
- I'm including teams here even if they are projected for an auto-bid
- I'm adjusting for remaining schedule where ever I can. For example Indiana would be in today but their remaining schedule is unfavorable.

Bubble Through 2/21:
Rutgers
Drake
Connecticut
St. Bonaventure
Colorado St.
VCU (projected A10 auto)
Seton Hall
Stanford
Utah St.
Xavier
Minnesota
Georgia Tech
Duke
Louisville
Indiana
Syracuse
SMU

Games to watch 2/22:
Syracuse at Duke - one of these teams is going to move to the coin-flip line today and one is going to drop out completely. Either way I expect this list to be one name shorter come tomorrow. I would root for Cuse because we beat them

Evansville at Drake - a Drake loss here would put them right on the coin-flip line. Drake has roughly 90% to win

 

[bac2therac]

if you are putting Rutgers on this list there are a slew of other schools to put on this list you seem to be giving the benefit of the doubt...that could lose all their game or go 1-3 and would be in trouble

ie North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma State, San Diego State

IMO RU is not currently a bubble school. They are more aligned with the schools I just listed but to be fair they need to be on the list also. Oklahoma State has 3 brutal games to finish, all top 20 schools plus a makeup game with Baylor, what if they go 0-4

 

[fluoxetine]

Who are you thinking? The only one particularly close to making the list was Maryland which is the next one above Rutgers.

 

[bac2therac]

I listed them. RU is still coming up better in the seeding right now than most of these schools and I would add UCLA as well. I just think it comes down to RU isnt a real panic bubble team mode until they lose to Indiana.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I would think most bubbles are round. If you aren't a lock and you aren't eliminated as an at large you are somewhere on the bubble. We are definitely in a great spot

 

[bac2therac]

but I agree, Rutgers is clearly on the top of this list and its resume dwarfs everyone elses that you listed

 

[bac2therac]

I would think most bubbles are round. If you aren't a lock and you aren't eliminated as an at large you are somewhere on the bubble. We are definitely in a great spot

great spot, if we take care of business, Indiana is a Quad2 opportunity at home vs a bubble team and any team worth its salt beats a horrible Nebby team on the road. If you cannot take advantage of that, then yes you truly deserve to be sweating bullets facing must wins at Minnesota and then another bubble matchup vs Indiana in the Big 10 tourney

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

great spot, if we take care of business, Indiana is a Quad2 opportunity at home vs a bubble team and any team worth its salt beats a horrible Nebby team on the road. If you cannot take advantage of that, then yes you truly deserve to be sweating bullets facing must wins at Minnesota and then another bubble matchup vs Indiana in the Big 10 tourney

I have always thought 10 was the magic number. While it is possible we don't get there I find it very unlikely (10%) that we don't. 10 is the magic number, but as you now 9 isn't necesarily a NCAA death sentence.

 

[fluoxetine]

I listed them. RU is still coming up better in the seeding right now than most of these schools and I would add UCLA as well. I just think it comes down to RU isnt a real panic bubble team mode until they lose to Indiana.

Well to be fair I did say :P

"By this definition Rutgers is a bubble team but we are at the top level of the bubble and it is not time to panic. "

 

[G- RUnit]

If you’re going to have SMU, you need Wichita and Memphis both ahead of SMU in league standings.

 

[fluoxetine]

I don't really think I'm under any obligation to sort by league standings; and they aren't particularly relevant. Memphis barely missed the list though.

 

[G- RUnit]

I don't really think I'm under any obligation to sort by league standings; and they aren't particularly relevant. Memphis barely missed the list though.

Well it's difficult to explain SMU over Wichita which just beat Houston.

 

[fluoxetine]

2/23 Update

Yesterday:
Duke beat Syracuse. Syracuse will now drop off the list, they need a miracle. Duke moves up to a ~50/50 chance.
Drake won as expected.

Bubble still starting at spot #38, will include spots if season ended today:
Rutgers
Drake
Connecticut
Colorado St.
St. Bonaventure
VCU (projected A10 automatic bid)
Seton Hall
Stanford
Duke
Utah St.
Xavier
Georgia Tech
Minnesota
Louisville
Indiana
SMU
Memphis

Games for today:
Saint Louis at VCU
This game is big for both teams, but not huge for bubble strength as a whole. I think it's slightly better if VCU gets the win.

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
A loss here and Georgia Tech's chances really start to look grim.

Notre Dame at Louisville

Connecticut at Georgetown

Lower Impact - These teams did not make the list but could still make some last gasps. Losses would put these guys completely out of it / wins and they are still just barely hanging onto hope

Massachusetts at Richmond
Mississippi at Missouri
St. John's at Villanova

 

[fluoxetine]

02/24/2021

Yesterday's Results
VCU 67, Saint Louis 65
Georgia Tech 69, Virginia Tech 53
Louisville 69, Notre Dame 57
Connecticut 70, Georgetown 57

A bad day for Rutgers overall, but our own results are still the most important thing by far. We don't want to end up in a spot where any of this matters.

Yesterday's Biggest Winners:
Georgia Tech - moves to the good side of the bubble
Louisville - moves to the 50/50 line
Connecticut - moves off the bubble to the >80% group

Yesterday's Biggest Loser:
Saint Louis - moves from slightly below the bubble to the "needs a miracle" group

-----

Still have 37 teams with >80% chance of an at-large bid. Connecticut jumped above the list, pushing Maryland who was barely above it back down onto it.

Starting at spot #38:
Maryland
VCU (projected A10 automatic bid)
Rutgers
Colorado St.
Drake
Georgia Tech
St. Bonaventure
Seton Hall
------------------- 50% ------------------
Louisville
Duke
Stanford
Utah St.
Minnesota
Xavier
Indiana

List has shrunk by two spots as SMU and Memphis have been pushed off. They are not getting the help they need from the other teams on the list.

High Impact Games 2/24

Indiana at Rutgers
A Rutgers win here and Rutgers will move above the bubble to the comfortable spots and Indiana will drop off the list. An Indiana win pushes them both into the 50/50 area with Indiana likely jumping Rutgers in the pecking order.

St. Bonaventure at Davidson
Important game for the Bonnies who are in the last four in area currently. Davidson is not making the tournament obviously but this game is a toss-up on the road. A win makes the Bonnies slightly more comfortable in the last four byes. A loss and they are STILL probably projected last four in but the margin of error gets ever slimmer.

Seton Hall at Butler
Another road game for a team currently sitting just on the good side of the line. The good news for Seton Hall is they should be comfortably favored in this one to the tune of 6 points or so. The bad news is that makes a loss all the more damaging. They are in a similar situation to the Bonnies; a win moves them from last four in => last four byes but doesn't provide comfort by any stretch. A loss however moves them to first four out territory. Not dead by not where you want to be by any stretch. It is where I would like them to be though.

Medium Impact Game 2/24

Xavier at Providence
Xavier is currently on the outside looking in and faces a Q2 road game here against Providence where Xavier should be slightly favored. A win is needed to inch them ever closer to that line and hope for help from the teams above. A loss sends them down below the likes of Syracuse who are on significant life support at this point, needing serious runs in conference tournaments to make it back into the discussion.

 

[zappaa]

Here’s what I don’t get about bubble watch.
If we win we are clearly a lock and the bubble is irrelevant to us.
The bubble is in play only if we lose, why are we contemplating loses?
The only computations I’m interested in is figuring out our seeding if we go 3-0.
Improving from there with BIG tournament wins.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Here’s what I don’t get about bubble watch.
If we win we are clearly a lock and the bubble is irrelevant to us.
The bubble is in play only if we lose, why are we contemplating loses?
The only computations I’m interested in is figuring out our seeding if we go 3-0.
Improving from there with BIG tournament wins.

Agree. We need to take care of our business, starting tonight. Period. SIAP a 2-1 finish at least for the regular season with 1 B1G tourney win at least and we can relax and enjoy Selection Sunday.

 

[RUfan1027]

If we beat Indiana and Nebraska we are in.

 

[zappaa]

If we beat Indiana and Nebraska we are in.

Agreed, so what would our seeding be if we did that?
That’s a far more relevant topic to me than bubble talk

 

[bac2therac]

Agreed, so what would our seeding be if we did that?
That’s a far more relevant topic to me than bubble talk

because the shifts happen at the bottom of the field, there will be little shifts toward the top.....RU is pretty much in that 7-8 range with 2 wins in the next week

 

[fluoxetine]

Even if RU were locked in at this point I still find the bubble interesting to look at. Hopefully we take care of business and this doesn't have much direct effect on us.

 

[fluoxetine]

02/25/2021

Yesterday's Results
Rutgers 74, Indiana 63
St. Bonaventure 56, Davidson 53
Butler 61, Seton Hall 52
Providence 83, Xavier 68

-----------------------------------------

Yesterday's Biggest Winners:
Rutgers
Richmond
St. Bonaventure

Yesterday's Biggest Losers:
Seton Hall
Xavier
North Carolina
Virginia Tech

-----------------------------------------

Today we have 39 teams with a >80% chance of a bid, up from 37 yesterday. The new joiners to that list include Rutgers, Mayland, and VCU, offset by Virginia Tech sliding down a bit and being added to the list. Without further ado:

(Starting at spot #40, roughly 8 of these teams will make the field)

St. Bonaventure
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Drake
Colorado St.
---------- 50% ----------
Louisville
Stanford
Duke
Utah St.
Minnesota
Seton Hall
Richmond
Memphis
SMU

-------------------------------------

High Impact Games 2/25
Oregon at Stanford
Oregon sitting on the last four byes line and can move up into the comfortable 8-seed territory with a win. Stanford currently sitting right on the bubble, basically needs this game to stay there. Loss puts them in F4O territory somewhere between Indiana and Syracuse.

Northwestern at Minnesota
Minnesota is another team sitting right on the line. It goes without saying that they cannot afford a home loss to Northwestern which would send them tumbling waaaay down the list. A win just keeps them right on the line.

Boise St at San Diego St.
Boise is pretty comfortable right now and a loss won't really change that, but a win would basically lock them in. For San Diego the story is pretty much the opposite. Pretty comfortable and win won't change that too much, but a loss sends them down much closer to the bubble line.

Ohio St. at Michigan St.
I've been saying Michigan St. has basically zero chance, and their remaining schedule is the reason why. Sure, with a strong finish a bid is within reach. Their last five games are Ohio St, at Maryland, Indiana, at Michigan, Michigan. Good luck IMO.

That said if they are going to get it started a win here would go a long way and would put them right on the 50/50 line. So it's not out of the question. But they still need to both win this game (~30% and then make the tournament after that (~45% ?), so you know, that's like 15%).

Western Kentucky at Houston
Obviously Houston is in no matter what. Western Kentucky is hanging around the miracle line (as in, they need one) in terms of at-large prospects but they aren't completely out of it yet. They will be heavily favored in the other four games they have scheduled, so a win over Houston is what the doctor ordered. If they get this one (and let's be real, the chances are <10%) they could finish the regular season 20-4. If they were to lose in the final round of the CUSA tournament, that's 22-5 with a big win on the resume, a 3-2 Q1 record and likely 3-1 Q2. Is it enough?? A coin-flip if you ask me.

 

[fluoxetine]

02/26/2021

---------------------------------------

Yesterday's Results
Oregon 71, Stanford 68
Northwestern 67, Minnesota 59
San Diego St. 78, Boise St. 66
Michigan St. 71, Ohio St. 67
Houston 81, Western Kentucky 57

----------------------------------------------

Yesterday's Biggest Winners:
Michigan St.
Oregon

Yesterday's Biggest Losers:
Minnesota
Stanford

Overall yesterday was positive for Rutgers
----------------------------------------------

Still 39 teams over the 80% mark. For the record I have Rutgers #35 on this list but the gradient is pretty steep. Rutgers has a better than 90% chance of making the tournament today.

Starting at spot #40, approximately 8 of these teams will make the tournament:

Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Drake
Georgia Tech
Colorado St.
---------- 50% ----------
Louisville
Duke
Utah St.
Richmond
Seton Hall
Stanford
SMU
Michigan St.
Memphis

-----------------------------------------

High Impact Games for 2/26

- Richmond at Saint Louis

- St. Bonaventure at George Washington

Medium Impact Games for 2/26

- Drake at Bradley

- Southern Illinois at Loyola Chicago

- Nevada at Utah St.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

I've said for weeks 8 wins (assuming no home loss to NW or road loss to Nebraska) was better than 50% to make it, as long as Iowa, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio State keep winning).

Michigan State winning yesterday, strengthens RU to 99% today, because there are now 4 teams in the B1G with 11 league losses. And it is almost seems certain that Indiana now lands with 11 B1G losses, they have 9 today with 3 games left with Michigan, MSU and Purdue.

Once you back into the league standings and RU lands no worse than 9th, they're a lock to dance with 9 wins. The good news is RU now can get as high as 6th in the B1G, if some things break in our favor (would require Wisconsin losing out and RU winning their last 2).

Illinois hosts Wisconsin Saturday and Dousumu didn't play last night.... don't see Illinois beating Wisconsin without Dousumu, but Wisconsin finishes up at Purdue and at Iowa. If Wisconsin finishes 10-10 & RU gets to 11-9, that probably pushes RU closer to a low 5 or high 6 seed entering the B1G tournament.