Buchanan and Francis - How "MIGHT" Their Skills Translate to the Big 10?

[lion1983]

So ... on the basketball forum, there is a vigorous discussion going on as to whether Buchanan in particular, and as a sidebar in a different area of certain threads, Francis as well, whether either or both of those players' demonstrated skills at their prior schools translate to potential performance in the Big 10.

Look, none of us can really know - we are all aware of that. It is all just opinion and conjecture, until we see the players in question actually PLAY in games at a Big 10 level. Still ... I thought the elements of the discussion, especially those by "RUChoppin" and myself, along with some dialogue by "PSAL_Hoops" and "Fluoxetine", were worth their own thread, nit buried in a 6-page thread. I will also be copying and posting this on the Basketball Forum.

So ... warning ... this is a long post, since I am copying and pasting a number of different posts on different aspects of this subject. The INTENT of copying and pasting is to put all the discussion and "analysis" in one post and one thread. SO IF YOU DO NOT CARE FOR LONG POSTS JUST IGNORE, RATHER THAN DUMP ON THE POST AND HIJACK THE THREAD - PLEASE.

BTW, MY opinion is that one CAN draw SOME conclusions from patterns as highlighted by the aggregate analysis various posters have posted ... when looking at the aggregate posts (i.e. not just 1 post).

In particular, I think one can make some educated GUESSES (yes, just guesses) that Buchanan's skills and performances are at least SOMEWHAT transferable to Big 10 play, but Francis' skills are less so. Thus, MY conclusion is that it is reasonable to believe Buchanan SHOULD actually be a double digit scorer (at least 10-11 ppg), and MAYBE a little bit more (12-13 ppg). I think it is MUCH less certain what Francis can actually provide to RU, and in fact more likely than not he will be only a minor or small contributor. Why do I conclude this at this early stage?

1) Top scoring A-10 Players transferring to P5 teams and conferences tend to be productive even after moving up a notch to P5 conferences, holding their own or improving their offensive efficiency, but do suffer some degradation of raw stats production. The decline in stats is usually tied to either a minutes reduction, or a role change (for a variety of reasons from being part of a team with greater depth, or in some cases being less athletic relative to the competition).

2) Top scoring AEC players do NOT generally transfer to P5 programs - and in fact rarely transfer at all - and when they do transfer up several levels (a couple of examples show transfers up to the A-10), generally suffer a LARGE drop-off in production - even just going to the A-10.

Here goes - The Posts and Analysis Trail:

RUChoppin Post #1:

Looking at Buchanan and Francis, there's very little to look at with regard to high major opponents.

Buchanan's high major experience are games @South Carolina and (n)Kansas St. Per bart, he's had 4 games vs Top 50 opponents across 2 seasons (VCU and Boise St last year, South Carolina and Dayton the year before).

Francis' high major experience are games @Miami, @Wake, @SHU, and @Villanova. Per bart, he's had just 2 games vs Top 50 opponents across 2 seasons (Nova last year, Wake the year before).

PSAL Post #1 - Responding to RUChoppin:

Buchanan played 9 games against Q1 and Q2 last year and 9 more against Q3. Not great but a good number of teams with at least a pulse. Results against top 150ish teams are real. They might not perfectly translate up a level but some of it will. He has talent. Derek didn’t even average 10 in the A-10 as a junior. Noah was a bench warmer as a frosh. 15.6 ppg and 6.6 rpg is legit as a true frosh in the A-10.

NJIT on the other hand. To be inefficent on that team does not breed confidence at all.




Lion1983 Post #1 - Replying to Both PSAL and RUChoppin:

I went game by game on Buchanan's 2 seasons - playing off RUChoppin's post about P5 opponents and Torvik Top 50 opponents.

Buchanan 2023-24 (Freshman Season):

Buchanan played against 1 P5 team in @South Carolina, and 2 Torvik Top 50 teams in @South Carolina and in-conference, @Dayton. BUT ... he also played in a solid mid-major conference, perhaps even what might be labelled a high mid-major conference in the A-10. So I also looked at his play IN CONFERENCE - But ONLY against A-10 teams with at least a .500+ record for the season - so only top half of the conference A-10 teams. GW played 10 games against Top Half A-10 teams, teams with at least a .500+ overall record. These 10 teams were: @VCU, George Mason, 2X vs UMass, 2X vs Richmond, @Dayton, Loyola-Chicago, St. Bonaventure and Duquesne.

So ... Drum roll, results:

1) @South Carolina: Buchanan scored 18 points and 6 rebounds on 6-11 FG, 1-1 3-point, 5-10 2-point, 5-6 FT

2) The 10 games in-conference vs top half A-10 teams: Buchanan averaged 13.4 points, 6.7 rebounds ... on 52.8% FG (55-104), 36% 3-point FG (just 5-14), 55.6% 2-point FG (50-90), 60% FT (28-47) ... he also had 20 assists and 25 turnovers.

Overall, with South Carolina and the 10 top half conference games, he averaged 13.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 53% FG, 40% 3-point, 55% 2-point and 62% FT ... A bit less than he did against the other, lesser, competition and overall (Overall: 15.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 54.5% FG, 57% 2-point FG), but still quite solid for a freshman.

Buchanan 2024-25 (Sophomore Season):

Buchanan played against 1 P5 teams (N) vs Kansas State, and 2 Torvik Top 50 teams in VCU (in conference). and Boise St (post season - CBI or NIT?) BUT ... he also played in a solid mid-major conference, perhaps even what might be labelled a high mid-major conference in the A-10. So I also looked at his play IN CONFERENCE - But ONLY against A-10 teams with at least a .500+ record for the season - so only top half of the conference A-10 teams. GW played 9 games this season against Top Half A-10 teams, teams with at least a .500+ overall record. These 10 teams were: 3X vs George Mason, St. Louis, @St. Bonaventure, VCU, @Davidson, St. Joes and @Loyola-Chicago.

There was also an issue with an injury - ONLY the Kansas St game of all those above games came BEFORE his injury, all the rest came AFTER his injury - so I will also look at pre- and post- injury stats.

1) (N) vs Kansas St - not a good game: 9 points, but 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 turnovers, on 3-11 FG, 0-2 3-point FG and 3-9 2-point FG ... 3-7 FT.

2) Boise St in the post season: AFTER Injury - a very poor game just 3 points, and 7 rebounds.

Overall in those 2 out-of-conference games Buchanan was not particularly effective: in 2 games, 12 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists ,8 turnovers ... 4-13 FG, 0-3 3-point FG, 4-10 2-point FG, 4-11 FT.

3) In his 9 conference games against top half A-10 opponents: 7.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg ... on 48% FG (23-48), 29% 3-point (on just 2-7 3-pointers), 51% 2-point FG (21-41) and 64.5% FT (20-31).

4) POST Injury - all games (18 games): Buchanan averaged25 minutes per game, 7.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.5 ass/g, 1.6 TO/g on 46% FG, 22% 3-point FG (9-41), 49% 2-point FG, 63% FT.

5) PRE-INJURY - 14 games, the 1st 14 games of the season: Buchanan averaged 33 mpg, 15.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.9 ass/g, 2.4 TOI/g, 45% FG, 16% 3-point FG (and awful 5-31), 52.4% 2-point FG, 68% FT (67-98 - taking 6=7 FT per game!).

As you can see, Buchanan's injury had a MAJOR impact on his season. Before the injury, albeit before conference (and tougher competition than most of the OOC slate), Buchanan was essentially the same player as a SO as he was as a FR - except for the awful 6-31 3-point FG shooting. Roughly the same ppg, more rpg, only a small increase in mpg, though he did have a reduced FG% efficiency - but still a very respectable 52%+ 2-point FG% ... and an improved FT%.

Then he got hurt - his ankle, missed 2 weeks, cane back - and I would not be surprised if he aggravated the ankle after a couple of games. He had a poor game his 1st game back - probably was not ready (we saw that with Harper this year, eh?), then had a GREAT game - 36 minutes perfect from the floor, 15 points and 8 rebounds in a 2 OT game vs a very good George Mason team ... and then his game pretty much fell apart except for 2 very good games against St Bonaventure and St. Joes - his only 2 other games (other than George Mason) in which he was in double figures down the stretch, post injury.

It is certainly possible he is just not that good. But it seems much more plausible the ankle injury lingered and had a severe affect on his game - added to the emergence of another player in his absence.

Look ... I have NO IDEA how this translates to the Big 10 ... none of us do. BUT ... based on the pattern of his 1 seasons, how he did against at least high mid-major teams when he was HEALTHY, it is not unreasonable to think he could average 10+ ppg - maybe even 12+ ppg..

Consider this: J. Williams played for Temple - an A-10 team. Now he played a different role than did Buchanan - he was their starting PG as a FR and SO. But he averaged 9.5 ppg - and that translated very well to the Big 10. Though he was not as good - and played pretty poorly many of us thought last season (playing hurt much of the year, BTW), he did average 8+ ppg last year and 12+ ppg in 12 games the year before.

I would say Williams is a MUCH better comparison on how Buchanan might translate to the Big 10 than players like Acuff (also injured), Derkack ... and by extension, Francis.

From RUChoppin: Post #2 (excerpt) - responding to Lion1983's above post:

The A10 is still the A10 - last year, there were just 2 teams with a kenpom AdjD in the Top 50 nationally (led by #27 VCU), while the B10 had 11 (led by #3 MSU... with 6 programs ahead of VCU).

At this point in NCAA consolidation, anything outside the SEC/B10/B12... then the ACC/BE... is really a step down in competition. MWC/A10 are really in that next tier, and then there's a clifflike dropoff. The best teams from the former "mid-major" conferences have mostly been absorbed into better conferences at this point.

PSAL_Hoops Post #2:

Buchanan will be fine health wise. It’s the kind of injury that lingers for a couple months - not a long term concern. Like Dylan’s ankle injury.

In terms of the numbers, nobody is saying the A-10 is as good as the BIG; however, not many kids who drop 15.6 and 6.6 in their true frosh seasons of A-10 level play end up being high level busts. Prove me wrong but I don’t think you could point to too many examples - if any. Again, Noah averaged 1 ppg in 9 or so minutes at UMass - for perspective as a frosh.



RUChoppin then had what I thought was a GREAT thought and post - in response to PSAL and Lion1983 responding to the per game stats, versus per 40 minutes, versus per 100 possessions.

RUChoppin Post #3 - responding to PSAL's Post #2:

I took a look at recent top 5 scorers from the A-10 in 2023-24 that transferred to major conferences for 2024-25:

16.6 pts/8.1 rb - Keyshawn Hall (transfer to UCF/B12, 18.8 ppg/7.1 rb)
15.9 pts/6.8 rb - Josh Cohen (transfer to USC/B1G, 5.9 ppg/2.5 rb)
15.2 pts/8.3 rb - Matt Cross (transfer to SMU/ACC, 11.8 ppg/7.6 rb)
15.0 pts/5.3 rb - Khalil Brantley (transfer to OSU/B12, 6.2 pts/2.6 rb)
13.9 pts/3.5 rb - Jhamir Brickus (transfer to Nova/BE, 9.3 pts/1.9 rb)

Hall excelled, Cross took a small step back, Brickus took a larger step back, Cohen/Brantley really fell off.

Fluoxetine then asked about per 40 minute production from the above list.

Lion1983 Post #2:

Fun work by Choppin - and good question and worthwhile caveat by Fluox.

Josh Cohen, for example, had a MINUTES drop off to just 13 mpg for USC - His 40 minute scoring was 18+ ppg, versus 22 ppg per 40 minutes prior year at UMass ... His FG% and 2-point FG% went up by a large margin at USC. Gonna guess there was an athleticism problem that limited his minutes? Anyway, he was as much an NEC player (3 years there) as an A-10 player (just 1 year - as a 4th year playe4).

Brantley went from 35 mpg at Lasalle to 20 mpg at Okla St. . His shooting percentages (FG% and 3-point FG% actually ROSE at Okla St, in fewer minutes, His per 40 minutes scoring dropped from 16.7 ppg to 12.3 ppg, but with better efficiency (fewer FG attempts per 40 minutes).

Brickus' minutes actually only dropped from 36 mpg at Lasalle to 30 mpg at Nova. But his FG ATTEMPTS dropped from 11+ per game to 7 per game. His offensive efficiency numbers went up a lot also: FG%, 3-point FG% and 2-point FG% all rose for Nova. But his per 40 minute scoring dropped from 14 ppg to 9.3 ppg ... due to many fewer shot attempts, despite starting every game and averaging 30 mpg.

Brantley and Brickus were guards, by the way - small guards. Brickus was a PG - and played that role for Nova, I suppose.

What the stats show is that the A-10 SKILLS actually translate in terms of shooting efficiencies ... but the minutes may or may not depending on the athleticism, the defense, the depth of the teams they join.

I use sports-reference.com, FYI: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/

RUChoppin Post #4 and #5 and #6 - A per 100 possession comparison:

Per 100 possessions, to adjust a bit for pace:

33.3 pts/16.2 rb - Keyshawn Hall (transfer to UCF/B12, 31.0 ppg/11.7 rb)
31.8 pts/13.7 rb - Josh Cohen (transfer to USC/B1G, 27.1 ppg/11.5 rb)
29.2 pts/15.8 rb - Matt Cross (transfer to SMU/ACC, 23.1 ppg/15.0 rb)
24.8 pts/8.8 rb - Khalil Brantley (transfer to OSU/B12, 17.1 pts/7.3 rb)
22.5 pts/5.6 rb - Jhamir Brickus (transfer to Nova/BE, 19.6 pts/3.9 rb)

So everyone went down a bit when adjusting for possessions, some more than others. The reduction in minutes, though, can be indicative of several things (as lion mentioned) - athleticism, defense, changing role, etc.

Went back one more year, for funsies.

2022-23 players who went to a major conference team in 2023-24, adj for 100 possessions (only 4 in the Top 20 scorers):
31.6 pts/12.2 rb - Tyler Burton (transfer to Nova/BE, 18.7 pts/15.2 rb)
27.9 pts/9.9 rb - Ishmael Leggett (transfer to Pitt/ACC, 25.7 pts/11.5 rb)
31.7 pts/16.1 rb - Josh Oduro (transfer to Prov/BE, 30.8 pts/14.5 rb)
21.3 pts/4.2 rb - Ace Baldwin (transfer to Pitt/B1G, 23.2 pts/4.7 rb)

Seems like most of these top-scoring A10 players saw slight dropback moving to a major conference from a 100-possession perspective, though their minutes may have been limited for other reasons.

PLUS:

Buchanan's per 100 stats:
2024-25: 22.1 pts/12.1 rb
Career: 25.4 pts/12.1 rb

Based on the other A10 players above, might be looking at 19-22 pts/9-11 rb per 100 possessions. For comparison, last year Lathan Sommerville was 22.4 pts/11.3 rb per 100 possessions and Dylan Grant was 18.1 pts/10.5 rb.

Question is whether a player roughly equivalent offensively to Sommerville/Grant from 2024-25 is enough to be the primary scorer for us next year.

Going by the comparisons above.... Lathan's 22.4 pts/100 possessions worked out to 15.6 pts/40 min.... which would have been roughly 11.7 pts per 30 min. Grant's 18.1 pts/100 poss worked out to 12.6 pts/40 min... which would work out to roughly 9.5 pts per 30 min. Rough estimate would put Buchanan somewhere in that range (9.5-11.5 pts/g). Hopefully he defies that estimation.

Lion1983 Post #3 - Final Sequence of Stats - Looking at AEC Transfers and How THEY translated up a level or two:

FYI: Took a quick look at the AEC top 10 scorers from 2023-24. Only ONE transferred UPWARD at all - and only ONE to a P5.

Dion Brown: Went from UMBC to Boston College, his per 100 points/g went from 31.5 down to 17.5 ... his per 40 minutes points went from 23.6 to 11.7 ... his minutes went from 32 to 25.6.

Gross-Bullock transferred down from Lasalle to Bryant a couple of years prior - and his scoring and per 100 possession points went up quite a bit after 3 years at Lasalle ... so a big jump upward when he dropped a level.

Looked at 2022-23 in the AEC also. Only 2 of the top 10 scorers transferred at all, and both went to the A-10, not P5. Drumgoole had pretty large drop offs in FG%, 3-point%, 2-poojn %, and though distinct, less drop off in per 100 possessions.
My point? Buchanan's abilities are FAR more likely to translate to the Big 10 than are Francis' abilities.


This is the current end ... I know this was a HUGE word "dump." I apologize. Just thought it would be useful and interesting to SOME people - and worth having it consolidated in one post - to have a whole SERIES of back and forth debates and analyses put together in ONE post and thread.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Thanks, Lion. Putting it all together a few things stand out to me.

If the money situation is really as dire as some suspect, most seem to be in agreement that yes, Buchanan was a very good pick up under the circumstances. It seems like some folks are just hesitant to come across expecting Buchanan to be a star. Nobody really projects him as a bust.

What’s perhaps lost in all this though is how absolutely horrible a pick up Francis was if we are truly out of funds. That’s why I’m holding out some hope that maybe Fluox is right and perhaps we do have some money reserved to pick up one more guy who can be a major contributor. Francis is only okay if we replace spot 13 with another player who at least has a reasonable chance to compete for a role in the core rotation (top 7 or so). If we’re now “done” the math says Francis had to have gotten an egregious pot to deplete our funds.

 

[RUChoppin]

I think Buchanan will be at the very least serviceable, based on the above. I just don't know how he'll perform as a "feature player"... and if not him, what other guys on the roster might fit that role.

Francis is more of a head scratcher, especially at 6-0/180 defensively in this conference. That's the second smallest scholarship guard Pike has had here, just after Noah Fernandes.

 

[RUGiddy777]

So ... on the basketball forum, there is a vigorous discussion going on as to whether Buchanan in particular, and as a sidebar in a different area of certain threads, Francis as well, whether either or both of those players' demonstrated skills at their prior schools translate to potential performance in the Big 10.

Look, none of us can really know - we are all aware of that. It is all just opinion and conjecture, until we see the players in question actually PLAY in games at a Big 10 level. Still ... I thought the elements of the discussion, especially those by "RUChoppin" and myself, along with some dialogue by "PSAL_Hoops" and "Fluoxetine", were worth their own thread, nit buried in a 6-page thread. I will also be copying and posting this on the Basketball Forum.

So ... warning ... this is a long post, since I am copying and pasting a number of different posts on different aspects of this subject. The INTENT of copying and pasting is to put all the discussion and "analysis" in one post and one thread. SO IF YOU DO NOT CARE FOR LONG POSTS JUST IGNORE, RATHER THAN DUMP ON THE POST AND HIJACK THE THREAD - PLEASE.

BTW, MY opinion is that one CAN draw SOME conclusions from patterns as highlighted by the aggregate analysis various posters have posted ... when looking at the aggregate posts (i.e. not just 1 post).

In particular, I think one can make some educated GUESSES (yes, just guesses) that Buchanan's skills and performances are at least SOMEWHAT transferable to Big 10 play, but Francis' skills are less so. Thus, MY conclusion is that it is reasonable to believe Buchanan SHOULD actually be a double digit scorer (at least 10-11 ppg), and MAYBE a little bit more (12-13 ppg). I think it is MUCH less certain what Francis can actually provide to RU, and in fact more likely than not he will be only a minor or small contributor. Why do I conclude this at this early stage?

1) Top scoring A-10 Players transferring to P5 teams and conferences tend to be productive even after moving up a notch to P5 conferences, holding their own or improving their offensive efficiency, but do suffer some degradation of raw stats production. The decline in stats is usually tied to either a minutes reduction, or a role change (for a variety of reasons from being part of a team with greater depth, or in some cases being less athletic relative to the competition).

2) Top scoring AEC players do NOT generally transfer to P5 programs - and in fact rarely transfer at all - and when they do transfer up several levels (a couple of examples show transfers up to the A-10), generally suffer a LARGE drop-off in production - even just going to the A-10.

Here goes - The Posts and Analysis Trail:

RUChoppin Post #1:

Looking at Buchanan and Francis, there's very little to look at with regard to high major opponents.

Buchanan's high major experience are games @South Carolina and (n)Kansas St. Per bart, he's had 4 games vs Top 50 opponents across 2 seasons (VCU and Boise St last year, South Carolina and Dayton the year before).

Francis' high major experience are games @Miami, @Wake, @SHU, and @Villanova. Per bart, he's had just 2 games vs Top 50 opponents across 2 seasons (Nova last year, Wake the year before).

PSAL Post #1 - Responding to RUChoppin:

Buchanan played 9 games against Q1 and Q2 last year and 9 more against Q3. Not great but a good number of teams with at least a pulse. Results against top 150ish teams are real. They might not perfectly translate up a level but some of it will. He has talent. Derek didn’t even average 10 in the A-10 as a junior. Noah was a bench warmer as a frosh. 15.6 ppg and 6.6 rpg is legit as a true frosh in the A-10.

NJIT on the other hand. To be inefficent on that team does not breed confidence at all.




Lion1983 Post #1 - Replying to Both PSAL and RUChoppin:

I went game by game on Buchanan's 2 seasons - playing off RUChoppin's post about P5 opponents and Torvik Top 50 opponents.

Buchanan 2023-24 (Freshman Season):

Buchanan played against 1 P5 team in @South Carolina, and 2 Torvik Top 50 teams in @South Carolina and in-conference, @Dayton. BUT ... he also played in a solid mid-major conference, perhaps even what might be labelled a high mid-major conference in the A-10. So I also looked at his play IN CONFERENCE - But ONLY against A-10 teams with at least a .500+ record for the season - so only top half of the conference A-10 teams. GW played 10 games against Top Half A-10 teams, teams with at least a .500+ overall record. These 10 teams were: @VCU, George Mason, 2X vs UMass, 2X vs Richmond, @Dayton, Loyola-Chicago, St. Bonaventure and Duquesne.

So ... Drum roll, results:

1) @South Carolina: Buchanan scored 18 points and 6 rebounds on 6-11 FG, 1-1 3-point, 5-10 2-point, 5-6 FT

2) The 10 games in-conference vs top half A-10 teams: Buchanan averaged 13.4 points, 6.7 rebounds ... on 52.8% FG (55-104), 36% 3-point FG (just 5-14), 55.6% 2-point FG (50-90), 60% FT (28-47) ... he also had 20 assists and 25 turnovers.

Overall, with South Carolina and the 10 top half conference games, he averaged 13.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 53% FG, 40% 3-point, 55% 2-point and 62% FT ... A bit less than he did against the other, lesser, competition and overall (Overall: 15.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 54.5% FG, 57% 2-point FG), but still quite solid for a freshman.

Buchanan 2024-25 (Sophomore Season):

Buchanan played against 1 P5 teams (N) vs Kansas State, and 2 Torvik Top 50 teams in VCU (in conference). and Boise St (post season - CBI or NIT?) BUT ... he also played in a solid mid-major conference, perhaps even what might be labelled a high mid-major conference in the A-10. So I also looked at his play IN CONFERENCE - But ONLY against A-10 teams with at least a .500+ record for the season - so only top half of the conference A-10 teams. GW played 9 games this season against Top Half A-10 teams, teams with at least a .500+ overall record. These 10 teams were: 3X vs George Mason, St. Louis, @St. Bonaventure, VCU, @Davidson, St. Joes and @Loyola-Chicago.

There was also an issue with an injury - ONLY the Kansas St game of all those above games came BEFORE his injury, all the rest came AFTER his injury - so I will also look at pre- and post- injury stats.

1) (N) vs Kansas St - not a good game: 9 points, but 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 turnovers, on 3-11 FG, 0-2 3-point FG and 3-9 2-point FG ... 3-7 FT.

2) Boise St in the post season: AFTER Injury - a very poor game just 3 points, and 7 rebounds.

Overall in those 2 out-of-conference games Buchanan was not particularly effective: in 2 games, 12 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists ,8 turnovers ... 4-13 FG, 0-3 3-point FG, 4-10 2-point FG, 4-11 FT.

3) In his 9 conference games against top half A-10 opponents: 7.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg ... on 48% FG (23-48), 29% 3-point (on just 2-7 3-pointers), 51% 2-point FG (21-41) and 64.5% FT (20-31).

4) POST Injury - all games (18 games): Buchanan averaged25 minutes per game, 7.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.5 ass/g, 1.6 TO/g on 46% FG, 22% 3-point FG (9-41), 49% 2-point FG, 63% FT.

5) PRE-INJURY - 14 games, the 1st 14 games of the season: Buchanan averaged 33 mpg, 15.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.9 ass/g, 2.4 TOI/g, 45% FG, 16% 3-point FG (and awful 5-31), 52.4% 2-point FG, 68% FT (67-98 - taking 6=7 FT per game!).

As you can see, Buchanan's injury had a MAJOR impact on his season. Before the injury, albeit before conference (and tougher competition than most of the OOC slate), Buchanan was essentially the same player as a SO as he was as a FR - except for the awful 6-31 3-point FG shooting. Roughly the same ppg, more rpg, only a small increase in mpg, though he did have a reduced FG% efficiency - but still a very respectable 52%+ 2-point FG% ... and an improved FT%.

Then he got hurt - his ankle, missed 2 weeks, cane back - and I would not be surprised if he aggravated the ankle after a couple of games. He had a poor game his 1st game back - probably was not ready (we saw that with Harper this year, eh?), then had a GREAT game - 36 minutes perfect from the floor, 15 points and 8 rebounds in a 2 OT game vs a very good George Mason team ... and then his game pretty much fell apart except for 2 very good games against St Bonaventure and St. Joes - his only 2 other games (other than George Mason) in which he was in double figures down the stretch, post injury.

It is certainly possible he is just not that good. But it seems much more plausible the ankle injury lingered and had a severe affect on his game - added to the emergence of another player in his absence.

Look ... I have NO IDEA how this translates to the Big 10 ... none of us do. BUT ... based on the pattern of his 1 seasons, how he did against at least high mid-major teams when he was HEALTHY, it is not unreasonable to think he could average 10+ ppg - maybe even 12+ ppg..

Consider this: J. Williams played for Temple - an A-10 team. Now he played a different role than did Buchanan - he was their starting PG as a FR and SO. But he averaged 9.5 ppg - and that translated very well to the Big 10. Though he was not as good - and played pretty poorly many of us thought last season (playing hurt much of the year, BTW), he did average 8+ ppg last year and 12+ ppg in 12 games the year before.

I would say Williams is a MUCH better comparison on how Buchanan might translate to the Big 10 than players like Acuff (also injured), Derkack ... and by extension, Francis.

From RUChoppin: Post #2 (excerpt) - responding to Lion1983's above post:

The A10 is still the A10 - last year, there were just 2 teams with a kenpom AdjD in the Top 50 nationally (led by #27 VCU), while the B10 had 11 (led by #3 MSU... with 6 programs ahead of VCU).

At this point in NCAA consolidation, anything outside the SEC/B10/B12... then the ACC/BE... is really a step down in competition. MWC/A10 are really in that next tier, and then there's a clifflike dropoff. The best teams from the former "mid-major" conferences have mostly been absorbed into better conferences at this point.

PSAL_Hoops Post #2:

Buchanan will be fine health wise. It’s the kind of injury that lingers for a couple months - not a long term concern. Like Dylan’s ankle injury.

In terms of the numbers, nobody is saying the A-10 is as good as the BIG; however, not many kids who drop 15.6 and 6.6 in their true frosh seasons of A-10 level play end up being high level busts. Prove me wrong but I don’t think you could point to too many examples - if any. Again, Noah averaged 1 ppg in 9 or so minutes at UMass - for perspective as a frosh.



RUChoppin then had what I thought was a GREAT thought and post - in response to PSAL and Lion1983 responding to the per game stats, versus per 40 minutes, versus per 100 possessions.

RUChoppin Post #3 - responding to PSAL's Post #2:

I took a look at recent top 5 scorers from the A-10 in 2023-24 that transferred to major conferences for 2024-25:

16.6 pts/8.1 rb - Keyshawn Hall (transfer to UCF/B12, 18.8 ppg/7.1 rb)
15.9 pts/6.8 rb - Josh Cohen (transfer to USC/B1G, 5.9 ppg/2.5 rb)
15.2 pts/8.3 rb - Matt Cross (transfer to SMU/ACC, 11.8 ppg/7.6 rb)
15.0 pts/5.3 rb - Khalil Brantley (transfer to OSU/B12, 6.2 pts/2.6 rb)
13.9 pts/3.5 rb - Jhamir Brickus (transfer to Nova/BE, 9.3 pts/1.9 rb)

Hall excelled, Cross took a small step back, Brickus took a larger step back, Cohen/Brantley really fell off.

Fluoxetine then asked about per 40 minute production from the above list.

Lion1983 Post #2:

Fun work by Choppin - and good question and worthwhile caveat by Fluox.

Josh Cohen, for example, had a MINUTES drop off to just 13 mpg for USC - His 40 minute scoring was 18+ ppg, versus 22 ppg per 40 minutes prior year at UMass ... His FG% and 2-point FG% went up by a large margin at USC. Gonna guess there was an athleticism problem that limited his minutes? Anyway, he was as much an NEC player (3 years there) as an A-10 player (just 1 year - as a 4th year playe4).

Brantley went from 35 mpg at Lasalle to 20 mpg at Okla St. . His shooting percentages (FG% and 3-point FG% actually ROSE at Okla St, in fewer minutes, His per 40 minutes scoring dropped from 16.7 ppg to 12.3 ppg, but with better efficiency (fewer FG attempts per 40 minutes).

Brickus' minutes actually only dropped from 36 mpg at Lasalle to 30 mpg at Nova. But his FG ATTEMPTS dropped from 11+ per game to 7 per game. His offensive efficiency numbers went up a lot also: FG%, 3-point FG% and 2-point FG% all rose for Nova. But his per 40 minute scoring dropped from 14 ppg to 9.3 ppg ... due to many fewer shot attempts, despite starting every game and averaging 30 mpg.

Brantley and Brickus were guards, by the way - small guards. Brickus was a PG - and played that role for Nova, I suppose.

What the stats show is that the A-10 SKILLS actually translate in terms of shooting efficiencies ... but the minutes may or may not depending on the athleticism, the defense, the depth of the teams they join.

I use sports-reference.com, FYI: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/

RUChoppin Post #4 and #5 and #6 - A per 100 possession comparison:

Per 100 possessions, to adjust a bit for pace:

33.3 pts/16.2 rb - Keyshawn Hall (transfer to UCF/B12, 31.0 ppg/11.7 rb)
31.8 pts/13.7 rb - Josh Cohen (transfer to USC/B1G, 27.1 ppg/11.5 rb)
29.2 pts/15.8 rb - Matt Cross (transfer to SMU/ACC, 23.1 ppg/15.0 rb)
24.8 pts/8.8 rb - Khalil Brantley (transfer to OSU/B12, 17.1 pts/7.3 rb)
22.5 pts/5.6 rb - Jhamir Brickus (transfer to Nova/BE, 19.6 pts/3.9 rb)

So everyone went down a bit when adjusting for possessions, some more than others. The reduction in minutes, though, can be indicative of several things (as lion mentioned) - athleticism, defense, changing role, etc.

Went back one more year, for funsies.

2022-23 players who went to a major conference team in 2023-24, adj for 100 possessions (only 4 in the Top 20 scorers):
31.6 pts/12.2 rb - Tyler Burton (transfer to Nova/BE, 18.7 pts/15.2 rb)
27.9 pts/9.9 rb - Ishmael Leggett (transfer to Pitt/ACC, 25.7 pts/11.5 rb)
31.7 pts/16.1 rb - Josh Oduro (transfer to Prov/BE, 30.8 pts/14.5 rb)
21.3 pts/4.2 rb - Ace Baldwin (transfer to Pitt/B1G, 23.2 pts/4.7 rb)

Seems like most of these top-scoring A10 players saw slight dropback moving to a major conference from a 100-possession perspective, though their minutes may have been limited for other reasons.

PLUS:

Buchanan's per 100 stats:
2024-25: 22.1 pts/12.1 rb
Career: 25.4 pts/12.1 rb

Based on the other A10 players above, might be looking at 19-22 pts/9-11 rb per 100 possessions. For comparison, last year Lathan Sommerville was 22.4 pts/11.3 rb per 100 possessions and Dylan Grant was 18.1 pts/10.5 rb.

Question is whether a player roughly equivalent offensively to Sommerville/Grant from 2024-25 is enough to be the primary scorer for us next year.

Going by the comparisons above.... Lathan's 22.4 pts/100 possessions worked out to 15.6 pts/40 min.... which would have been roughly 11.7 pts per 30 min. Grant's 18.1 pts/100 poss worked out to 12.6 pts/40 min... which would work out to roughly 9.5 pts per 30 min. Rough estimate would put Buchanan somewhere in that range (9.5-11.5 pts/g). Hopefully he defies that estimation.

Lion1983 Post #3 - Final Sequence of Stats - Looking at AEC Transfers and How THEY translated up a level or two:

FYI: Took a quick look at the AEC top 10 scorers from 2023-24. Only ONE transferred UPWARD at all - and only ONE to a P5.

Dion Brown: Went from UMBC to Boston College, his per 100 points/g went from 31.5 down to 17.5 ... his per 40 minutes points went from 23.6 to 11.7 ... his minutes went from 32 to 25.6.

Gross-Bullock transferred down from Lasalle to Bryant a couple of years prior - and his scoring and per 100 possession points went up quite a bit after 3 years at Lasalle ... so a big jump upward when he dropped a level.

Looked at 2022-23 in the AEC also. Only 2 of the top 10 scorers transferred at all, and both went to the A-10, not P5. Drumgoole had pretty large drop offs in FG%, 3-point%, 2-poojn %, and though distinct, less drop off in per 100 possessions.
My point? Buchanan's abilities are FAR more likely to translate to the Big 10 than are Francis' abilities.


This is the current end ... I know this was a HUGE word "dump." I apologize. Just thought it would be useful and interesting to SOME people - and worth having it consolidated in one post - to have a whole SERIES of back and forth debates and analyses put together in ONE post and thread.

Good stuff, thank you.

 

[Kn0wledge]

Their games would translate if they were coached

Between PJ, Martini, Acuff and Derkack they lost 40 points combined off of their averages last season. It’s not about the players….it’s the fact that we don’t run plays to get guys open shots..

ace Bailey will still be a top pick without shooting an open shot all year or lifting any weights😂😂😂 He’s actually better than we think, imagine if they were running plays to get him good shots or using him for pick and pop with Dylan!

 

[lion1983]

Their games would translate if they were coached

Between PJ, Martini, Acuff and Derkack they lost 40 points combined off of their averages last season. It’s not about the players….it’s the fact that we don’t run plays to get guys open shots..

Totally disagree.

It is quite common that players coming from teams and conferences like Derkack and Acuff often show a significant drop off in offensive efficiency and minutes when moving up to the P5 level. It is true that SOMETIMES a player from the MAC or even NEC ends up producing at the P5 level - but those are generally the exception jot the rule. One such player is Cam Spencer - but even he was less efficient and had reduced minutes at RU and even the next season at UConn, after his step up in competition.

A-10 players also usually have a drop off in efficiency and minutes when they step up to P5 competition - but not as much, generally, as do players from lower level conferences.

And AEC players NEVER produce anywhere near the efficiency or minutes that they did in the NEC ... like never.

Still, I believe the core of my post was that Buchanan's skills have a reasonable chance to MOSTLY translate. Kind of like Cam Spencer's skills did - oh under the same coaching staff as is currently in place!

 

[Kn0wledge]

Totally disagree.

It is quite common that players coming from teams and conferences like Derkack and Acuff often show a significant drop off in offensive efficiency and minutes when moving up to the P5 level. It is true that SOMETIMES a player from the MAC or even NEC ends up producing at the P5 level - but those are generally the exception jot the rule. One such player is Cam Spencer - but even he was less efficient and had reduced minutes at RU and even the next season at UConn, after his step up in competition.

A-10 players also usually have a drop off in efficiency and minutes when they step up to P5 competition - but not as much, generally, as do players from lower level conferences.

And AEC players NEVER produce anywhere near the efficiency or minutes that they did in the NEC ... like never.

Still, I believe the core of my post was that Buchanan's skills have a reasonable chance to MOSTLY translate. Kind of like Cam Spencer's skills did - oh under the same coaching staff as is currently in place!

We’re talking about a DPOY/POY (Derkack) and another guy who was top 10 in the nation in scoring (Acuff)
They should’ve had a “reasonable chance to MOSTLY translate”

 

[Hondo77]

I can’t believe we’re still talking about this.

 

[lion1983]

We’re talking about a DPOY/POY (Derkack) and another guy who was top 10 in the nation in scoring (Acuff)
They should’ve had a “reasonable chance to MOSTLY translate”

So ... I checked out NEC transfers in the last 4-5 years. I should have paid more attention to this when Derkack was signed and I was sort of pleased.

After the last 4 seasons (2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24), when looking the NEC's top 10 scorer's list, SEVEN (of the 40 players) transferred to the A-10/MWC/AAC level, or to P5 conferences ... 7. That is better than the AEC, but still, that is a very low number of players transferring as high as the A-10 or MWC, or P5. Only 4 players transferred to a P5 conference - Josh Cohen did transfer to USC - but that was after he first transferred to UMass in the A-10.

Six of those 7 players had a MAJOR decrease in impact, productivity and minutes. The SINGLE exception was K. Council after the 2023-24 season transferred to the A-10, to St. Bonaventure, and his minutes and ppg held even, basically, while his FG%'s all rose.

Here is what happened to the other 6 transfers:

After 2020-21 - NO NEC players transferred to A-10/MWV or P5 teams.

After 2021-22 - ONE player transferred to a P5 program, Eral Penn to Depaul in the Big East. His mpg dropped from 32 to 29 (not too much), his ppg from 17.3 to 6.8 (a HUGE drop, considering few minutes drop), his 2-point and ovberall FG% rose, his 3-point FG% (on lower volume) plummeted from 29% to 20%. Obviously, though he played a lot of minutes, his role while on the court was substantially diminished.

After the 2022-23 season 3 players transferred:

Josh Cohen, to UMass. His mpg dropped from 34 to 29, his ppg dropped from 22 to 16, his rpg dropped from 8.3 to 6.8 ... FYI, after one season at UMass, he transferred to USC, where his minutes dropped even more, from 29 to 13, his ppg from 16 to 6, his rpg from 6.8 to 2.6.

Jordan Minor to UVA (ACC). His mpg dropped from 33 to 15, his ppg from 17.4 to 4.3, his rpg from 9.4 to 3.1 (pppg and rog dropped by a lot more than his mpg did).

Kellen Amos transferred to Rice of the AAC. His mpg only dropped from 31 to 25, his ppg dropped from 12 to 9, his rpg dropped from 5.2 to 3.6. So his numbers held up a bit better than the others, but still a real drop.

After the 2023-24 season, 3 players transferred:

Derkack to RU - I do not think I need to cite these numbers - large decreases in mpg, ppg, FG%, etc.

Almonor transferred to Kentucky (SEC). His mpg dropped from 32 to 14, his ppg from 16.4 to 5.2, his FG%'s did rise, across the board - but in MANY fewer minutes and diminished role.

K. Council - who transferred to St. Bonaventure (the A-10). He held his own, mpg from 36 to 37, ppg from 15 to 14.5,

Obvious Conclusion:

So ... in all, 4 NEC players transferred directly to P5 conference teams - though a 5th player, Josh Cohen, went to P5 after 1 year in the A-10. EVERY ONE OF THOSE PLAYERS had material declines in minutes, points and thier roles versus what they were able to achieve in the NEC (including Cohen), and 4 of the 5 had very significant declines in roles, minutes and scoring.

Are you saying ALL those coaches were the problem?

Occam's Razor principle would argue the simplest explanation is the most likely: That the SINGLE variable that all had in common was they all transferred UPWARD to P5 teams ... the coaches each had were multiple variables (different coach and different system for each team to which they transferred.

So the most likely answer is that the SINGLE variable of transferring upward into significantly stronger competition was the primary reason for each player's decline in performance, not poor coaching. I would also add that MOST of the time P5 coaches get those jobs because they are supposed to be BETTER coaches than NEC and AEC coaches ... generally speaking, in broad outlines.

Just saying ...

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

We’re talking about a DPOY/POY (Derkack) and another guy who was top 10 in the nation in scoring (Acuff)
They should’ve had a “reasonable chance to MOSTLY translate”

In Acuff’s case, I think it was a combination of a few things. 1) his defense was not very good in the man scheme. He looked way better in the press scheme but we couldn’t use it that often because it tired out Dylan and Ace. 2) In general, he wasn’t a great fit with Dylan. He didn’t know how to be a lower usage style player. Not his fault. He hadn’t done it before. I don’t think he would’ve transitioned to a compliment role well anywhere quite honestly. That type of shift takes time to adjust to. 3). The obvious - major step up on competition.

 

[Kn0wledge]

So ... I checked out NEC transfers in the last 4-5 years. I should have paid more attention to this when Derkack was signed and I was sort of pleased.

After the last 4 seasons (2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24), when looking the NEC's top 10 scorer's list, SEVEN (of the 40 players) transferred to the A-10/MWC/AAC level, or to P5 conferences ... 7. That is better than the AEC, but still, that is a very low number of players transferring as high as the A-10 or MWC, or P5. Only 4 players transferred to a P5 conference - Josh Cohen did transfer to USC - but that was after he first transferred to UMass in the A-10.

Six of those 7 players had a MAJOR decrease in impact, productivity and minutes. The SINGLE exception was K. Council after the 2023-24 season transferred to the A-10, to St. Bonaventure, and his minutes and ppg held even, basically, while his FG%'s all rose.

Here is what happened to the other 6 transfers:

After 2020-21 - NO NEC players transferred to A-10/MWV or P5 teams.

After 2021-22 - ONE player transferred to a P5 program, Eral Penn to Depaul in the Big East. His mpg dropped from 32 to 29 (not too much), his ppg from 17.3 to 6.8 (a HUGE drop, considering few minutes drop), his 2-point and ovberall FG% rose, his 3-point FG% (on lower volume) plummeted from 29% to 20%. Obviously, though he played a lot of minutes, his role while on the court was substantially diminished.

After the 2022-23 season 3 players transferred:

Josh Cohen, to UMass. His mpg dropped from 34 to 29, his ppg dropped from 22 to 16, his rpg dropped from 8.3 to 6.8 ... FYI, after one season at UMass, he transferred to USC, where his minutes dropped even more, from 29 to 13, his ppg from 16 to 6, his rpg from 6.8 to 2.6.

Jordan Minor to UVA (ACC). His mpg dropped from 33 to 15, his ppg from 17.4 to 4.3, his rpg from 9.4 to 3.1 (pppg and rog dropped by a lot more than his mpg did).

Kellen Amos transferred to Rice of the AAC. His mpg only dropped from 31 to 25, his ppg dropped from 12 to 9, his rpg dropped from 5.2 to 3.6. So his numbers held up a bit better than the others, but still a real drop.

After the 2023-24 season, 3 players transferred:

Derkack to RU - I do not think I need to cite these numbers - large decreases in mpg, ppg, FG%, etc.

Almonor transferred to Kentucky (SEC). His mpg dropped from 32 to 14, his ppg from 16.4 to 5.2, his FG%'s did rise, across the board - but in MANY fewer minutes and diminished role.

K. Council - who transferred to St. Bonaventure (the A-10). He held his own, mpg from 36 to 37, ppg from 15 to 14.5,

Obvious Conclusion:

So ... in all, 4 NEC players transferred directly to P5 conference teams - though a 5th player, Josh Cohen, went to P5 after 1 year in the A-10. EVERY ONE OF THOSE PLAYERS had material declines in minutes, points and thier roles versus what they were able to achieve in the NEC (including Cohen), and 4 of the 5 had very significant declines in roles, minutes and scoring.

Are you saying ALL those coaches were the problem?

Occam's Razor principle would argue the simplest explanation is the most likely: That the SINGLE variable that all had in common was they all transferred UPWARD to P5 teams ... the coaches each had were multiple variables (different coach and different system for each team to which they transferred.

So the most likely answer is that the SINGLE variable of transferring upward into significantly stronger competition was the primary reason for each player's decline in performance, not poor coaching. I would also add that MOST of the time P5 coaches get those jobs because they are supposed to be BETTER coaches than NEC and AEC coaches ... generally speaking, in broad outlines.

Just saying ...

I understand what you’re saying but we’re talking about 2 guys who literally led their conferences in scoring, not just good players from the conference.
Acuff who was the #7 scorer in the country before he came and Derkack who swept the conference awards won DPOY and POY…there has to be some expectations regardless of the increase in competition
Where any of this guys you mentioned top ten in the nation in scoring before entering the portal? Or did they win POY and DPOY in the same season while leading their conference in scoring before entering the portal??

 

[RedTeam1994]

I understand what you’re saying but we’re talking about 2 guys who literally led their conferences in scoring, not just good players from the conference.
Acuff who was the #7 scorer in the country before he came and Derkack who swept the conference awards won DPOY and POY…there has to be some expectations regardless of the increase in competition
Where any of this guys you mentioned top ten in the nation in scoring before entering the portal? Or did they win POY and DPOY in the same season while leading their conference in scoring before entering the portal??

Bottom line - we all know Pikes coaching staff is poor on the offensive end if things

But using the drop-off in scoring from guys moving up from lower levels is a piss poor way to prove it (as was demonstrated)

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Bottom line - we all know Pikes coaching staff is poor on the offensive end if things

But using the drop-off in scoring from guys moving up from lower levels is a piss poor way to prove it (as was demonstrated)

You are correct, and why lion and PSAL are looking like kids in preschool......it is always a 100% certainty that productivity falls off when a player plays 3 to 5 levels up in competition.....

The question for Francis specifically and Buchanan in a some instances is this....its really 2 or 4 specific questions.....

1) Is Buchanan better than the incoming front court freshmen.....??

2) Is Buchanan better thab the returning front court players???

3) Is Francis better than the incoming freshman guards??? Short term, Yes, not long tern).....

4( Is Francis better than the returning guards?? (Yes, in some instances vs JMike Davis).....

These are FOUR very different and specifically isolated questions that have NOTHING to do with how much potential money they did or didnt receive OR not.

What Lion and PSAL are essentially saying is that they dont like Francis because he is undersized and they kinda have questions about Buchanan, because there's limited data on his productivity against Power 4/5 teams......but that's not addressing the RU issue......

My FOUR questions are where the items truly are AND is where the lion and PSAL crusade against Francis and Buchanan (lesser extent) fall apart.....because BOTH Buchanan and Francis have very distinct strengths to their games that WILL translate to the B1G, even though their overall performance will be not as productive going to the B10.

It is simple....is Buchanan better thab Ware, Dortch, Ogbole as front court options to rebound and generate FT attempts?? YES 100%.....Buchanan, has a high pattern of rebounding AND generating Fouls, which means he will likely have that same pattern, just not nearly as many at RU, as it was against the A-10 level of play........there are lots of games where Buchanan generates 5 or more FT attempts. We can say that's because of similar size players OR credit the players activity on the glass......even if that is 4 FTs per game vs 5 or 6 in the A-10, it's more than what Ru has on paper today with Grant or others.

Is Buchanan better than Nwuli or Dylan Grant is really the question....and it's not a question to me.. they are kinda the same player, just all 3 have specific strengths on offense but they can all Run, jump, rebound, defend and attack the glass.....those are effort plays that all 3 can give RU on a consistent basis that don't show up on a 3 PT shooting percentage OR get accurately measured in defensive ratings. We now have THREE consistent effort players vs the last 2 years when it was not always the case where RU had more than 1 at all times on the court (Mag, Martini, are defined as defense, rebounding, hustle type of players)

For Francis, this is where lion and PSAL lose their complete argument.....the other 2 questions are whether Francis is better than the returning guards AND is he better than the freshman uards?? TWO VERY distinct questions is how the discussion avoids the answer by discussing "fall off from AEC or A-10....

I could easily say that Nwuli playing games against 5 nationally ranked HS teams like.Limk Academy,.Monteverde, Columbus FL (Boozer twins ) is a BETTER indicator of what translates to college than the AEC or A-10....I could argue those HS rosters or opponents of loaded HS All Americans OR that Nwuli practices against his own team with Dynamic Prep, coached by Jermaine ONeal (former HS AA, Indiana Pacer long time NBA veteran), is BETTER than what Ware, Dortch, Ogbole had as incoming freshman or JUCO for Ogbole AND similar to what Buchanan faced in the A-10.....

But in terms of Francis specifically, is he better than Lino Mark OR is the AEC better competition than what Mark played at a Top Southern California HS or AAU level of play, in the last year?? It is not THAT big of a drop-off.

If Mark averages 20, 5 and 4 (hypothetical HS averages), of course he's not going to walk into the B1G and sverage the same thing....DUH, and Francis isn't walking into the B1G and averaging 10PPG........but the tape shows "some" things that will transfer as strengths for Mark and the same thing applies to Francis coming from the AEC.

I personally think Mark (and Kaden Powers) project to be better players 1 year from now, vs Francis or JMike, but we cannot skip steps in progression OR ignore how long that process may take. BUT Francis as a junior projects to be a better option for the 1st 2 months of this season vs Mark, Powers and probably JMike, in terms of hitting 3s and making some plays.

That does NOT mean he is overpaid or anything else.....it just means he is a better scorer (I did not say overall better player, defender than JMike)......but JMike Davis has shown in 2 years of data in the B1G that he does not take or make 3s in volume.....Francis does, even with an expected drop off in number of attempts in the B1G.

Once lion and PSAL digest that Francis is just a better scoring option from 3, than what's returning or starting as a freshman, is how they lose sight of reality. There are games in November and December, where someone has to score and we could ask Mark and others to do that, but you want a bridge type of player to help....

Buchanan is a top 7 or 8 player on most B1G rosters and perhaps a bench player on most B1G options.....because he likely starts here, doesn't mean he doesn't have qualities that won't translate anywhere else in the B1G (FT shots generated, defensive ability to switch, rebounding)....and Francis is a better option than JMike as a scoring guard off the bench as the 4th to 6th guard.

I dont think Francis has any more "Upside", like Mark, Powers or Zrno.....OR simply put, he is possibky maxed out as a player of his size, kinda like JMike Davis may also be as well........There's not a ton of changes one can expect in either player of that size, unless you are a very capable shooter.

Once lion and others realize that Mark, Powers and Zrno (AND potentially another guard brought in) all have to compete, is when we find out about not who starts in November.....its who is likely to be better by March 2026......thats where I have Mark, Powers, Nwuli and Zrno all hopefully locked into consistent playing time.....

My only less certain item, is whether Geovante Ware can beat out Ogbole for minutes and if Ware is a better matchup in some games vs Bryce Dortch. But the other 4 incoming players should see minutes for certain.

If the incoming portal TBD CG makes Powers the 5th guard and he cannot beat out Francis and Davis as a better option as a SG, then he hasn't earned minutes because of defense but I can't imagine Powers being a lesser defender than Francis at 6'0 or 5'11 etc...Powers is just as good of a shooter as Francis but is 2 to 3 years younger......give him time to develop and I think RU has a steal there for down the road......but not asking him to be locked in as a freshman on defense, there will be mistakes and time needed for sure.

To close, Buchanan and Francis are solid pickups not designed to block the development of others. But they both have distinct strengths that help a team.....moreso than others on the roster today.

 

[Kn0wledge]

Bottom line - we all know Pikes coaching staff is poor on the offensive end if things

But using the drop-off in scoring from guys moving up from lower levels is a piss poor way to prove it (as was demonstrated)

Lol so losing 40 points off their averages between 4 transfers is acceptable?? POY’s DPOY’s and 2 conference leading scorers with no expectations?? So it’s just the players fault?? I mean cmon!!
Get a grip!! Like cmon!
Can someone here finally be realistic

 

[fluoxetine]

Lol so losing 40 points off their averages between 4 transfers is acceptable?? POY’s DPOY’s and 2 conference leading scorers with no expectations?? So it’s just the players fault?? I mean cmon!!
Get a grip!! Like cmon!
Can someone here finally be realistic

It’s a shame Hoiberg can’t coach either. Best of luck to Gavin in D3

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

You are correct, and why lion and PSAL are looking like kids in preschool......it is always a 100% certainty that productivity falls off when a player plays 3 to 5 levels up in competition.....

The question for Francis specifically and Buchanan in a some instances is this....its really 2 or 4 specific questions.....

1) Is Buchanan better than the incoming front court freshmen.....??

2) Is Buchanan better thab the returning front court players???

3) Is Francis better than the incoming freshman guards??? Short term, Yes, not long tern).....

4( Is Francis better than the returning guards?? (Yes, in some instances vs JMike Davis).....

These are FOUR very different and specifically isolated questions that have NOTHING to do with how much potential money they did or didnt receive OR not.

What Lion and PSAL are essentially saying is that they dont like Francis because he is undersized and they kinda have questions about Buchanan, because there's limited data on his productivity against Power 4/5 teams......but that's not addressing the RU issue......

My FOUR questions are where the items truly are AND is where the lion and PSAL crusade against Francis and Buchanan (lesser extent) fall apart.....because BOTH Buchanan and Francis have very distinct strengths to their games that WILL translate to the B1G, even though their overall performance will be not as productive going to the B10.

It is simple....is Buchanan better thab Ware, Dortch, Ogbole as front court options to rebound and generate FT attempts?? YES 100%.....Buchanan, has a high pattern of rebounding AND generating Fouls, which means he will likely have that same pattern, just not nearly as many at RU, as it was against the A-10 level of play........there are lots of games where Buchanan generates 5 or more FT attempts. We can say that's because of similar size players OR credit the players activity on the glass......even if that is 4 FTs per game vs 5 or 6 in the A-10, it's more than what Ru has on paper today with Grant or others.

Is Buchanan better than Nwuli or Dylan Grant is really the question....and it's not a question to me.. they are kinda the same player, just all 3 have specific strengths on offense but they can all Run, jump, rebound, defend and attack the glass.....those are effort plays that all 3 can give RU on a consistent basis that don't show up on a 3 PT shooting percentage OR get accurately measured in defensive ratings. We now have THREE consistent effort players vs the last 2 years when it was not always the case where RU had more than 1 at all times on the court (Mag, Martini, are defined as defense, rebounding, hustle type of players)

For Francis, this is where lion and PSAL lose their complete argument.....the other 2 questions are whether Francis is better than the returning guards AND is he better than the freshman uards?? TWO VERY distinct questions is how the discussion avoids the answer by discussing "fall off from AEC or A-10....

I could easily say that Nwuli playing games against 5 nationally ranked HS teams like.Limk Academy,.Monteverde, Columbus FL (Boozer twins ) is a BETTER indicator of what translates to college than the AEC or A-10....I could argue those HS rosters or opponents of loaded HS All Americans OR that Nwuli practices against his own team with Dynamic Prep, coached by Jermaine ONeal (former HS AA, Indiana Pacer long time NBA veteran), is BETTER than what Ware, Dortch, Ogbole had as incoming freshman or JUCO for Ogbole AND similar to what Buchanan faced in the A-10.....

But in terms of Francis specifically, is he better than Lino Mark OR is the AEC better competition than what Mark played at a Top Southern California HS or AAU level of play, in the last year?? It is not THAT big of a drop-off.

If Mark averages 20, 5 and 4 (hypothetical HS averages), of course he's not going to walk into the B1G and sverage the same thing....DUH, and Francis isn't walking into the B1G and averaging 10PPG........but the tape shows "some" things that will transfer as strengths for Mark and the same thing applies to Francis coming from the AEC.

I personally think Mark (and Kaden Powers) project to be better players 1 year from now, vs Francis or JMike, but we cannot skip steps in progression OR ignore how long that process may take. BUT Francis as a junior projects to be a better option for the 1st 2 months of this season vs Mark, Powers and probably JMike, in terms of hitting 3s and making some plays.

That does NOT mean he is overpaid or anything else.....it just means he is a better scorer (I did not say overall better player, defender than JMike)......but JMike Davis has shown in 2 years of data in the B1G that he does not take or make 3s in volume.....Francis does, even with an expected drop off in number of attempts in the B1G.

Once lion and PSAL digest that Francis is just a better scoring option from 3, than what's returning or starting as a freshman, is how they lose sight of reality. There are games in November and December, where someone has to score and we could ask Mark and others to do that, but you want a bridge type of player to help....

Buchanan is a top 7 or 8 player on most B1G rosters and perhaps a bench player on most B1G options.....because he likely starts here, doesn't mean he doesn't have qualities that won't translate anywhere else in the B1G (FT shots generated, defensive ability to switch, rebounding)....and Francis is a better option than JMike as a scoring guard off the bench as the 4th to 6th guard.

I dont think Francis has any more "Upside", like Mark, Powers or Zrno.....OR simply put, he is possibky maxed out as a player of his size, kinda like JMike Davis may also be as well........There's not a ton of changes one can expect in either player of that size, unless you are a very capable shooter.

Once lion and others realize that Mark, Powers and Zrno (AND potentially another guard brought in) all have to compete, is when we find out about not who starts in November.....its who is likely to be better by March 2026......thats where I have Mark, Powers, Nwuli and Zrno all hopefully locked into consistent playing time.....

My only less certain item, is whether Geovante Ware can beat out Ogbole for minutes and if Ware is a better matchup in some games vs Bryce Dortch. But the other 4 incoming players should see minutes for certain.

If the incoming portal TBD CG makes Powers the 5th guard and he cannot beat out Francis and Davis as a better option as a SG, then he hasn't earned minutes because of defense but I can't imagine Powers being a lesser defender than Francis at 6'0 or 5'11 etc...Powers is just as good of a shooter as Francis but is 2 to 3 years younger......give him time to develop and I think RU has a steal there for down the road......but not asking him to be locked in as a freshman on defense, there will be mistakes and time needed for sure.

To close, Buchanan and Francis are solid pickups not designed to block the development of others. But they both have distinct strengths that help a team.....moreso than others on the roster today.

You have no idea who Francis is better than. Nobody understands better than me that basketball is a game of levels and levels. Players also look vastly different when they are the most skilled player on a roster vs not being close to that on another team. There is a huge gap between elite high school ball and the Amer East but it’s quite possible the gap is even bigger between the Amer East and BIG basketball. The other guards Francis will now be competing with for PT like JMichael were big time scorers in HS. You do NOT know that they couldn’t put up huge numbers on 19-20 shot attempts in the Amer East and lead a team like NJIT to more than 6 conference wins. Suggesting Francis output there means he’s a better scorer than them pr any incoming frosh is ridiculous.

One more thing. I promise you, anyone and everyone looks and plays completely different when they are among the most vs least talented options on a given team. Sometimes less talented players add more value to the end of better team rosters than guys who are a bit better than them in iso. Because again - basketball is most successful as a team game. We couldn’t even win last year with 2 iso all stars. How do you think things would go with Francis as our replacement Alpha for Dylan?

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Lol so losing 40 points off their averages between 4 transfers is acceptable?? POY’s DPOY’s and 2 conference leading scorers with no expectations?? So it’s just the players fault?? I mean cmon!!
Get a grip!! Like cmon!
Can someone here finally be realistic

You're not really saying that all players average around the same ,irregardless of the league they are transferring to??

The 40PPG is another dumb argument....LOL....if a player plays 35MPG at a smaller school and averages 14MPG at RU, of course the 40PPG is going to add up....the player isn't playing the same number of MPG???

Certain things matter in terms of stats and others dont....we have certain things that essentially should translate (high volume shooting from 3 matters).

We have people who are trying to tell fans that a if someone shoots 14 of their last 42 from 3, is a true 33% 3 point shooter vs someone who takes 150 to 200+ 3 pointers.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

You have no idea who Francis is better than. Nobody understands better than me that basketball is a game of levels and levels. Players also look vastly different when they are the most skilled player on a roster vs not being close to that on another team. There is a huge gap between elite high school ball and the Amer East but it’s quite possible the gap is even bigger between the Amer East and BIG basketball. The other guards Francis will now be competing with for PT like JMichael were big time scorers in HS. You do NOT know that they couldn’t put up huge numbers on 19-20 shot attempts in the Amer East and lead a team like NJIT to more than 6 conference wins. Suggesting Francis output there means he’s a better scorer than them pr any incoming frosh is ridiculous.

One more thing. I promise you, anyone and everyone looks and plays completely different when they are among the most vs least talented options on a given team. Sometimes less talented players add more value to the end of better team rosters than guys who are a bit better than them in iso. Because again - basketball is most successful as a team game. We couldn’t even win last year with 2 iso all stars. How do you think things would go with Francis as our replacement Alpha for Dylan?

Why do you keep saying the same irrelevant things like Francis is the replacement as alpha for Dylan Harper, LOL.....you take a quote from an article as if it's fact...

Last years lack of winning had to do with 3 poor defensive players, poor rebounding players and players who turn the ball over at a high rate (Derkack) as the portal options. None other than Acuff were proven scorers and you also ignore Acuff missing 4 months with a broken foot and Dylan Harper essentially missing 6 B1G games.

 

[fluoxetine]

I like how kn0wledge puts in roughly the same effort in his trolling that Gavin did on defense.

Wow, you’re telling me that Tyson Acuff went from the #1 option on a bad team putting up all the shots to a role player who was not the #1 option even when he was on the floor and *gasp* his PPG went way down? Shockedpickachu.gif this is groundbreaking stuff.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Why do you keep saying the same irrelevant things like Francis is the replacement as alpha for Dylan Harper, LOL.....you take a quote from an article as if it's fact...

Last years lack of winning had to do with 3 poor defensive players, poor rebounding players and players who turn the ball over at a high rate (Derkack) as the portal options. None other than Acuff were proven scorers and you also ignore Acuff missing 4 months with a broken foot and Dylan Harper essentially missing 6 B1G games.

Yes exactly - we sucked because of poor defense. And you somehow think Francis can help this situation? He’s not known to be good at D at all and is 6 foot tall.

You are the one who keeps saying Francis is this better scoring option from our other guards on day one based on what he did at NJIT. Sometimes surprising things happen. I’m certainly rooting for Francis to defy the odds but the math doesn’t suggest he’s going to be effective at the next level.

I’m mostly hoping Fluox is right and we didn’t actually spend very much on Francis at all. Perhaps NJIT has no money and Pepperdine didn’t offer much either so we gave him a small package to come have Brandin be his mentor. If we’re still getting another guy with major conference (or MW / A-10 caliber experience) all is good with me. Your the one acting like Francis was a good pick up - when meanwhile it was reported multiple times that it took the staff a long time to even reach a concensus offering him at all.

 

[RedTeam1994]

Lol so losing 40 points off their averages between 4 transfers is acceptable?? POY’s DPOY’s and 2 conference leading scorers with no expectations?? So it’s just the players fault?? I mean cmon!!
Get a grip!! Like cmon!
Can someone here finally be realistic

The others above proved your analysis to be silly

With that said, yes, pike is a bad offensive coach

Was never arguing to the contrary and my post made that clear

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Yes exactly - we sucked because of poor defense. And you somehow think Francis can help this situation? He’s not known to be good at D at all and is 6 foot tall.

You are the one who keeps saying Francis is this better scoring option from our other guards on day one based on what he did at NJIT. Sometimes surprising things happen. I’m certainly rooting for Francis to defy the odds but the math doesn’t suggest he’s going to be effective at the next level.

I’m mostly hoping Fluox is right and we didn’t actually spend very much on Francis at all. Perhaps NJIT has no money and Pepperdine didn’t offer much either so we gave him a small package to come have Brandin be his mentor. If we’re still getting another guy with major conference (or MW / A-10 caliber experience) all is good with me. Your the one acting like Francis was a good pick up - when meanwhile it was reported multiple times that it took the staff a long time to even reach a concensus offering him at all.

Again scoring option better than JMike Davis from 3 is as far as I'm going on Francis.....I don't believe for one minute he's better than Mark, Powers or Zrno on tape.....becauae he had a connection to someone on the staff, that means he's getting less than what Pepperdine offered, which blows up your entire premise on he's getting too much money etc.

Pepperdine would not be able to offer the same money vs a B1G school and land him, which means (logically) that Pepperdine offered more and he picked or took less money to go to RU .......it is far less likely that RU paid or offered more than Pepperdine, we have more to offer as a B1G program than a WCC school does.....at worst, the numbers are probably slightly less in terms of money and Pepperdine probably beats RU in terms of campus, beaches and co-eds....🤣🤣

At some point, none of the argument on Francis getting too much money or being brought in as an alpha or starter, is not supported by where the roster or backcourt is today......but you and lion are insecure or obsessed with this Knight mentor thing, it's very weird and illogical....

We can agree that Francis is not going to be a plus defender in the B1G, but I can easily argue that neither is JMike Davis or Lino Mark.....what Mark and Francis can likely do (on tape to me) to offset some of the likely defensive lack of impact is make some shots from 3 or playmake, create offense, something Davis has not shown in volume at RU. Davis has gotten better from Year 1 to Year 2, but those numbers from 3, (14 made 3s, 65% FT%), are items that need to be much higher as an undersized guard, who is also going to give up points defensively.

 

[Mholinko]

Again scoring option better than JMike Davis from 3 is as far as I'm going on Francis.....I don't believe for one minute he's better than Mark, Powers or Zrno on tape.....becauae he had a connection to someone on the staff, that means he's getting less than what Pepperdine offered, which blows up your entire premise on he's getting too much money etc.

Pepperdine would not be able to offer the same money vs a B1G school and land him, which means (logically) that Pepperdine offered more and he picked or took less money to go to RU .......it is far less likely that RU paid or offered more than Pepperdine, we have more to offer as a B1G program than a WCC school does.....at worst, the numbers are probably slightly less in terms of money and Pepperdine probably beats RU in terms of campus, beaches and co-eds....🤣🤣

At some point, none of the argument on Francis getting too much money or being brought in as an alpha or starter, is not supported by where the roster or backcourt is today......but you and lion are insecure or obsessed with this Knight mentor thing, it's very weird and illogical....

We can agree that Francis is not going to be a plus defender in the B1G, but I can easily argue that neither is JMike Davis or Lino Mark.....what Mark and Francis can likely do (on tape to me) to offset some of the likely defensive lack of impact is make some shots from 3 or playmake, create offense, something Davis has not shown in volume at RU. Davis has gotten better from Year 1 to Year 2, but those numbers from 3, (14 made 3s, 65% FT%), are items that need to be much higher as an undersized guard, who is also going to give up points defensively.

Arguing if Francis is better than incoming freshman or Jmike as the basis for being a good pick up is silly

One because you don’t know anything about the freshmen

Two because him being better than what we have does not make it a good pickup

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

You're not really saying that all players average around the same ,irregardless of the league they are transferring to??

The 40PPG is another dumb argument....LOL....if a player plays 35MPG at a smaller school and averages 14MPG at RU, of course the 40PPG is going to add up....the player isn't playing the same number of MPG???

Certain things matter in terms of stats and others dont....we have certain things that essentially should translate (high volume shooting from 3 matters).

We have people who are trying to tell fans that a if someone shoots 14 of their last 42 from 3, is a true 33% 3 point shooter vs someone who takes 150 to 200+ 3 pointers.

I don’t know but it seems that in your last mpg distribution you changed position and now predict Francis as a deep bench player (sharing 18 mpg with 2 other guys including Powers). This seems a bit different from the 6 ppg you originally projected from him. You also projected previously that Powers would come in and have immediate impact year one so this too seems to have changed?

Arguing if Francis is better than incoming freshman or Jmike as the basis for being a good pick up is silly

One because you don’t know anything about the freshmen

Two because him being better than what we have does not make it a good pickup

And 3 - it’s actually pretty unlikely that he turns out better than the J Mike (who wasn’t even close to a starter last year) so clearly on paper, it’s hard to follow any logic suggesting Francis to be a good pick up. We have 13 total spots and none of the 4 returners are clear BIG caliber starters. 4 more guys are frosh with no experience at all beyond HS, and a 9th guy in Zrno also hasn’t played D1 ball before. Add that Fall was not even a rotation player the past 2 seasons and were up to 10. Buchanan and Francis are the only 2 players on our team who played starter minutes at the D1 level. So no - it’s not a good pick up when you realize we only have one spot left to fill and realistically there’s a good chance Francis is buried deep on this already questionable roster. Let’s hope the last spot is filled with a seasoned guy.

 

[lion1983]

I don’t know but it seems that in your last mpg distribution you changed position and now predict Francis as a deep bench player (sharing 18 mpg with 2 other guys including Powers). This seems a bit different from the 6 ppg you originally projected from him. You also projected previously that Powers would come in and have immediate impact year one so this too seems to have changed?

This - just posted on that very point in the preliminary "minutes" distribution thread just started.

 

[Hondo77]

 

[lion1983]

Good one, LOL! I'll slow walk it ... or try ...

 

[RUChoppin]

Francis posted 19.2 ppg against the 331st SOS last year.
Derkack posted 17.0 ppg against the 351st SOS the year before coming to Rutgers.
Acuff posted 21.7 against the 277th SOS the year before coming to Rutgers.

By contrast, Rutgers was 32nd in SOS last year.

It is very hard to translate offense when taking that huge of a jump upward in competition - regardless of your coaching staff.

My bigger question is whether Francis can stay on the floor defensively. NJIT had the 284th DRtg last year with Francis playing 34.7 mpg and grabbing 1.0 steals. In 2022-23, UMass had the 160th DRtg with Fernandes playing 29.5 mpg and grabbing 1.3 steals.

Fernandes was abused defensively in the B1G - just too small and easy to shoot over, unable to switch onto SG/SF, and not fast enough hands or feet.

As a PG, Francis had a 1.17 ast/tov ratio in the AEC and only shot .403 from 2P range. Davis' career average at Rutgers is 2.05 ast/tov and .401 from 2P range.... against far more difficult defenses in the B1G.

I see Francis as an "in case of PG emergency, break glass" player. If he has to play significant minutes, we could be in trouble. I'm hoping I'm wrong and he surpasses those expectations - but I'm really struggling to see what value he brings.

 

[RUChoppin]

I don’t know but it seems that in your last mpg distribution you changed position and now predict Francis as a deep bench player (sharing 18 mpg with 2 other guys including Powers). This seems a bit different from the 6 ppg you originally projected from him. You also projected previously that Powers would come in and have immediate impact year one so this too seems to have changed?


And 3 - it’s actually pretty unlikely that he turns out better than the J Mike (who wasn’t even close to a starter last year) so clearly on paper, it’s hard to follow any logic suggesting Francis to be a good pick up. We have 13 total spots and none of the 4 returners are clear BIG caliber starters. 4 more guys are frosh with no experience at all beyond HS, and a 9th guy in Zrno also hasn’t played D1 ball before. Add that Fall was not even a rotation player the past 2 seasons and were up to 10. Buchanan and Francis are the only 2 players on our team who played starter minutes at the D1 level. So no - it’s not a good pick up when you realize we only have one spot left to fill and realistically there’s a good chance Francis is buried deep on this already questionable roster. Let’s hope the last spot is filled with a seasoned guy.

.... let's hope the last spot is filled at all, at this point. I'm starting to suspect the roster is already baked.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

.... let's hope the last spot is filled at all, at this point. I'm starting to suspect the roster is already baked.

I really hope not. There’s a non zero chance that we’re just being patient. Late graduate entries to the portal do happen. Let’s hope.

 

[RUChoppin]

I really hope not. There’s a non zero chance that we’re just being patient. Late graduate entries to the portal do happen. Let’s hope.

I didn't think grad transfers have a longer window anymore.

 

[Shelby65]

Program success correlates to recruiting ‘stars’ more or less, even given the dumpster fire Ace and Dylan 5 Star Duo show last year.

So when a roster is chock full of tomato cans the outlook should be bleak. Even if one player blossoms above his rating, it’s still a longshot for the team’s sum to be greater than its parts.

Chico’s Bail Bonds lineups don’t win in real life.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I didn't think grad transfers have a longer window anymore.

I think they can still transfer whenever? Can’t keep up with the rules though so it wouldn’t surprise me if that changed.

 

[RUChoppin]

I think they can still transfer whenever? Can’t keep up with the rules though so it wouldn’t surprise me if that changed.

I believe they changed it last year - grad transfers can enter the portal any time, provide it is before the end of the transfer window for their respective sport. Since the basketball portal is closed, I don't think there will be any additional grad transfers without exceptions (like a coach leaving).

I believe whatever guard we may be looking for must either be a) already in the portal, b) a freshman, or c) coming from overseas like Zrno.

 

[RUChoppin]

Next date is June 15th, which is the date players have to remove their name from the NBA draft if they want to return to college. Lot of guys that are in the portal and also draft hopefuls - after 6/15, any who haven't withdrawn from the draft will be withdrawn from the portal.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Next date is June 15th, which is the date players have to remove their name from the NBA draft if they want to return to college. Lot of guys that are in the portal and also draft hopefuls - after 6/15, any who haven't withdrawn from the draft will be withdrawn from the portal.

Oh ok. It seemed when the TKR guys were talking about the deadline that passed they were saying it technically doesn’t apply to Ogbole since he graduated. In one of the podcasts. That’s where Im getting it from and otherwise I have no idea.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Program success correlates to recruiting ‘stars’ more or less, even given the dumpster fire Ace and Dylan 5 Star Duo show last year.

So when a roster is chock full of tomato cans the outlook should be bleak. Even if one player blossoms above his rating, it’s still a longshot for the team’s sum to be greater than its parts.

Chico’s Bail Bonds lineups don’t win in real life.

That hasn’t really been the experience for Pike. His success at Rutgers was mostly achieved with lower rated players. Actually, even in Schiano’s case he has plenty of history of turning 3 stars and even walk ons like Pierce into NFL prospects. The challenge is with NIL it’s near impossible to develop guys in basketball. Football is very different because developing players with good potential usually don’t get enough in season reps to command huge packages from competitors. Less visibility.

 

[NY AGENTMAN]

MAC players tend to do well in P5 play after transferring. Sears was the obvious example but many more have been very serviceable!

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

MAC players tend to do well in P5 play after transferring. Sears was the obvious example but many more have been very serviceable!

Acuff wasn’t a great defender and just didn’t seem like a good fit to play alongside Dylan. For the avoidance of doubt, I’d love to add a kid like him to next year’s roster. Would sign for him right now if he was granted another year of eligibility to fill spot 13.

Comparing Acuff to Francis is like night and day though. Acuff is 6-5. The fundamental problem with Francis is his height in combination with extremely poor primary ball handling skills. It’s this that makes him a poor pick up. He can’t play the 2 alongside either Lino or JMike because then we’re tiny which doesn’t work in the BIG. But he’s not a good enough ball handler to play the point and we don’t even have taller ball handlers like J Will or Harper who can defend 2s in the game with him. With the current roster make up, it’s really difficult to envision any role for him for this reason. This is why the pick up is so frustrating.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Francis posted 19.2 ppg against the 331st SOS last year.
Derkack posted 17.0 ppg against the 351st SOS the year before coming to Rutgers.
Acuff posted 21.7 against the 277th SOS the year before coming to Rutgers.

By contrast, Rutgers was 32nd in SOS last year.

It is very hard to translate offense when taking that huge of a jump upward in competition - regardless of your coaching staff.

My bigger question is whether Francis can stay on the floor defensively. NJIT had the 284th DRtg last year with Francis playing 34.7 mpg and grabbing 1.0 steals. In 2022-23, UMass had the 160th DRtg with Fernandes playing 29.5 mpg and grabbing 1.3 steals.

Fernandes was abused defensively in the B1G - just too small and easy to shoot over, unable to switch onto SG/SF, and not fast enough hands or feet.

As a PG, Francis had a 1.17 ast/tov ratio in the AEC and only shot .403 from 2P range. Davis' career average at Rutgers is 2.05 ast/tov and .401 from 2P range.... against far more difficult defenses in the B1G.

I see Francis as an "in case of PG emergency, break glass" player. If he has to play significant minutes, we could be in trouble. I'm hoping I'm wrong and he surpasses those expectations - but I'm really struggling to see what value he brings.

This. And it should be added that Noah F was a MUCH better primary ball handler than Francis. Also night and day. Francis was in the top 30 nationally in turnovers playing for NJIT. So arguably, he’s even a poor choice as an emergency PG.