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Coach Pikiell years, right on schedule

Scarlet Blind

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Aug 5, 2001
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I had a bit of free time today and deep dived our Conference results from the Pikiell years. To begin in 2016-17, Rutgers won THREE B1G games by a total of SIX points to vs T12 Neb by1, @T12 PSU by2 and vs 9th Illinois by 3, we faced T2nd UW(0-2), T2nd Md (0-2), T5th NW(0-2), T5th Iowa(0-2), T12th PSU(1-1). I looked at what Rutgers record is against each of the 13 individual teams and how they stand each year in the B1G over the last 4 years have cleared up a lot of the misconceptions for me. I categorized each of the other 13 teams by bad matchup(edge in coaching/talent or both, 0-1,0-2 over 2 years), even matchup home/road(1-0,1-1 or 1-1,0-1 over 2 years) or good matchup(1-0,2-0 over 2 years)/winning strategy. There were 4 total outlier results in 78 games(1 positive, 3 negative) over 4 years, none in 2019-20, like the WTF home loss by Schiano.

Quick analysis,
2017-19 6 bad matchups(1-17) 7 even matchups(8-11) 0 good (0-0)
2019-21 3 bad matchups(0-9) 5 even matchups(7-9) 5 good (12-0) 3 left
I'll explain the conclusion more further down but I need to use 2019-21 years first to reach the conclusions for the 2017-19 years.

2019-20 8th
20-11 (11-9) 9-2 OOC NET 30
Q1 4-9 Q2 5-1 Q3 3-1 Q4 7-0
H9-1 R2-8

Given recent history vs final 3 opponents, there is enough pride and talent on this team and Coach Pike has the winning strategy for all three
Vs Indiana, 4Ws in last 5(3 straight HWs)
Vs Nebraska 2Ws, 3 of 4, B1G 1-12, 11 gm in 23 days, little practice in between
Vs Minnesota 2Ws, 4 of 5, Minnesota has lost 6 of 8, Kalscheur out, Robbins "severe" ankle sprain, Minn vs NW, @Neb, @PSU before final game.

2020-21 T8th
12-9(8-9) 4-0 OOC NET 31
If we win all 3, 15-9(11-9) and Minnesota stays above 75.
Projected Q1 5-8 Q2 4-1 Q3 4-0 Q4 2-0
H6-4 R5-5
Which will be fine for about a 6 seed going into the B1G tourny.

2019-20 B1G standings
#18 Maryland 14-6(24-7) 1-1 HW RL
#7 MSU 14-6(22-9) 0-1 RL
#23 Wisconsin 14-6(21-10) 1-1 HW RL
#39 Illinois 13-7(20-10) 1-1 HW RL
#16 OSU 11-9(20-10) 0-1 RL
#35 PSU 11-9(21-10) 1-1 HW
#34 Iowa 11-9(20-11) 0-1 RL
#30 Rutgers 11-9(20-11)
#24 Michigan 10-10(19-12) 0-2 HL RL
#32 Purdue 9-11(16-15) 2-0 HW RW
#56 Indiana 9-11(20-12) 1-0 HW
#42 Minnesota 8-12(15-16) 1-0 HW
#164 Northwestern 3-17(8-23) 1-0 HW
#199 Nebraska 2-18(7-25) 2-0 HW RW

2020-21 current B1G standings
#3 Michigan 11-1(16-1) 0-1 RL
#4 Illinois 12-3(16-5) 1-0 HW
#7 OSU 12-5(18-5) 0-2 HL RL
#5 Iowa 11-5(17-6) 0-2 HL RL
#28 Purdue 10-6(15-8) 1-0 HW
#20 Wisconsin 10-7(16-8) 0-1 HL
#30 Maryland 8-9(14-10) 1-1 HL RW
#31 Rutgers 8-9(12-9)
#52 Indiana 7-8(12-10) 1-0(2-0) H? RW
#60 Minnesota 6-10(13-10) 1-0(2-0) HW R?
#81 MSU 5-9(11-9) 1-1 HW RL
#41 PSU 4-11(7-12) 0-1 RL
#98 Northwestern 3-13(5-14) 2-0 HW Rw
#147 Nebraska 1-12(4-15) (1-0) R?

Last 2 years record by opponent, UM 0-3, Ill 2-1, OSU 0-3, Iowa 0-3, Purdue 3-0, Wisc. 1-2, Md 2-2, Indy 2-0(3-0?), Minn 2-0(3-0?), MSU 1-2, PSU 1-2, NW 3-0, Neb 2-0(3-0?). 3 teams we didn't matchup well 0-9(UM, OSU, Iowa), 5 teams even matchup 7-9(Ill, Wisconsin, Md, MSU, PSU), 1 outlier Home loss Vs 6th place Wisconsin, 2020-21. 5 teams good matchup 12-0, 15-0?(Purdue, Indiana, Minn, NW, Neb).

By comparison 2 years prior,
2017-18 14th (3-15) H 3-6 R 0-9, wins Vs 9th Wisc, vs T11 Iowa, vs 10th NW
1-7(MSU 0-2, PU 0-2, OSU 0-2, @UM 0-1, Neb 0-2, @PSU 0-1, vs IU 0-1) 0-11
8-13(@ MD 0-1, UW 1-0, NW 1-0, @Minn 0-1, UofI 0-2, Iowa 1-0) 3-4
*We played 4 of top 5 teams twice that year* only other was T11th Illinois

In 2018-19 12th (7-13) H 4-6 R 3-7(NW,PSU,Iowa)
1-7(MSU 0-2, @PU 0-1, vs UM 0-1, @UW 0-1, Vs Md 0-1, Iowa 1-1, Minn 1-1) 2-8
8-13(OSU 1-1, IU 1-1, PSU 1-1, @UofI 0-1, vs Neb 1-0, NW 1-1) 5-5

2017-19, MSU 0-4, PU 0-3, UM 0-2, UW 1-1, Md 0-2, Iowa 2-1, Minn 1-2, OSU 1-3, IU 1-2, PSU 1-2, UI 0-3, Neb 1-2, NW 2-1. 6 teams bad matchup 1-17(MSU, PU, UM, Md, UI, OSU), OSU, only positive outlier W, to bad matchup of a top7 team that finished 8th,and 7 teams fall in the even matchup 8-11 (UW, Iowa, Minn, IU, PSU, Neb, NW) with 2 outlier losses, home to 7th place Indiana(17-18), and vs 5th place Maryland(18-19). 0 good matchups.

2016-17 1-7 team 0-11
2017-18 1-7 teams 0-11
2018-19 1-7 teams 2-8
2019-20 1-7 teams 4-7
2020-21 1-7 teams 3-7, as of today

2016-17 8-13 teams 3-4
2017-18 8-13 teams 3-4
2018-19 8-13 teams 5-5
2019-20 8-13 teams 7-2
2020-21 8-13 teams 5-2(3 left, 8-2?) As of today

It will be an even higher winning% once Pike figures out the other 8 teams more consistently. He has 5 under his belt in the last 3 years alone.

If you take a look at where our team vs other team have reposition themselves by 2 year comparisons, the 6 bad matchups 2017-19 are down to 2 in 2019-21, UM and OSU have stayed bad matchups, Illinois, MSU, and Maryland have become more an even matchup and we have turned Purdue(3-0) to good matchup now. Iowa is the only team that has moved up from even to bad matchup. Despite the outlier home loss, Wisc is still an even matchup with PSU, but Indiana(2-0), Minnesota(2-0), Nebraska(2-0) and NW(3-0) are all good coaching matchups Pikiell has a winning formula. To be an elite team in this league, Coach Pikiell has to get at least 7 teams on the good matchup scale, because every coach will always have at least 1 coach in conference that has your number, ex. Indiana over Iowa, 6Ws out of 8, other 2 losses 5 or less.

2017-19, MSU and OSU was Back2Back x2, 2019-2021, Md Back2Back x2. Not sure if it changes again but in 2021-22, I'm guessing it will still be Md(E), along with UM(B), Illinois(E), Purdue(G), Wisconsin(E), PSU(E), and Nebraska(G) x2, Home games MSU(E), OSU(B), Iowa(B) Road- Indiana(G), Minnesota(G), NW(G). The fall out will be interesting in the off season on who stays and goes from the free year, but the schedule looks to be very Rutgers friendly. It will really determine who will be the top teams and who isn't next year. Hope this helps settle things down a bit or help fans off the ledge.
 
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Thanks for that effort SB, there’s some good insights in there, very interesting. I think Pike has done a phenomenal job turning things around since he got here. Was a time when almost any road game was an automatic loss. Not anymore.
 
No, I knew how good Pike is. It's my answer to reading the insane posts of firing Pike, not winning another game, only a bubble teams, not making the tournament. An example of how far we've come in this conference.

2014-2017 3 14ths, 3 B1G seasons 6-48 0.125
2014-15 *1st Wisc*, 13th PSU, 2015-16 13th Minn,
2016-17 9th UofI, T12th PSU, T12th Neb (5 teams) 8 teams no wins 3 years.
1 wins/3yrs over teams finished 1st-7th

2017-2019 14th,12th 2 B1G conf 10-28 0 263
2 wins Iowa, 2 wins NW, 1 Wisc, 1 Minn, 1 OSU, 1 IU, 1 PSU, 1 Neb (8 teams, no sweeps), 5 teams we didn't beat for 2yrs
2 wins/2 yrs over teams finished 1st-7th

2019-2021 T5th,T8th Big conf record 19-18 0.514, proj. 22-18 0.550
PU(3-0), NW(3-0), Md(2-2), UofI(2-1), Neb(2-0), IU(2-0), Minn(2-0), 1 win UW, MSU, PSU. (10 teams, 2 sweeps, 3 more TBD), 3 teams we didn't beat 2yrs
7 wins/2 yrs over teams finished 1st-7th

Pike has taken a team that could barely win more than 1 game against the worst teams in the B1G at home(5-22, 1-26) first 3yrs, (7-12, 3-16) next 2 yrs, to a team that has gone 19-18(14-5, 5-13) with a good chance to be 22-18(15-5, 7-13) and sweeping 5 teams(3-0) last 2seasons. Rutgers went from beating 5 different teams in 3 yrs, to 8 different teams next 2 and 10 diff teams last 2, and only team no wins, UM(0-9), since joining B1G.

Including B1G tourny games
2014-17/17-19/19-21 / Win streaks
PSU 2-3/1-2/1-2 (4-7)
NW 0-5/2-1/3-0 (5-6), 5 of 6,
PU 0-4/0-4/3-0 (3-8) 3W
Md 0-5/0-2/2-2 (2-9) 2 of 3
Neb 1-4/1-3/2-0 (4-7) 3 of 4*
UM 0-4/0-2/0-3 (0-9) X
Minn 1-4/2-2/2-0 (5-6) 4 of 5*
OSU 1-4/1-3/0-3 (2-10) X
MSU 0-4/0-4/1-2 (1-10) X
Wisc 1-3/1-1/1-2 (3-6)
UofI 1-3/0-3/2-1 (3-7) 2W;
IU 0-4/2-2/2-0 (4-6) 4 of 5*,
Iowa 0-4/2-1/0-3 (2-8) X

7 teams with current win streaks/coaching breakthroughs
Before current streaks(3-44), after figuring it out(23-5)
Pike has 6 more teams to figure out more consistently against, PSU and Wisconsin series are competitive(7-13), the other 4 are on the drawing board(5-37).
 
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Thanks for that effort SB, there’s some good insights in there, very interesting. I think Pike has done a phenomenal job turning things around since he got here. Was a time when almost any road game was an automatic loss. Not anymore.
We could always go back to Eddie Jordan...he is a Rutgers man you know.
 
Agree with OP, Pike has done yeoman's work here at Rutgers. In a brutally tough conference we are still on the cusp of a tourney bid.
 
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No, I knew how good Pike is. It's my answer to reading the insane posts of firing Pike, not winning another game, only a bubble teams, not making the tournament. An example of how far we've come in this conference.

2014-2017 3 14ths, 3 B1G seasons 6-48 0.125
2014-15 *1st Wisc*, 13th PSU, 2015-16 13th Minn,
2016-17 9th UofI, T12th PSU, T12th Neb (5 teams) 8 teams no wins 3 years.
1 wins/3yrs over teams finished 1st-7th

2017-2019 14th,12th 2 B1G conf 10-28 0 263
2 wins Iowa, 2 wins NW, 1 Wisc, 1 Minn, 1 OSU, 1 IU, 1 PSU, 1 Neb (8 teams, no sweeps), 5 teams we didn't beat for 2yrs
2 wins/2 yrs over teams finished 1st-7th

2019-2021 T5th,T8th Big conf record 19-18 0.514, proj. 22-18 0.550
PU(3-0), NW(3-0), Md(2-2), UofI(2-1), Neb(2-0), IU(2-0), Minn(2-0), 1 win UW, MSU, PSU. (10 teams, 2 sweeps, 3 more TBD), 3 teams we didn't beat 2yrs
7 wins/2 yrs over teams finished 1st-7th

Pike has taken a team that could barely win more than 1 game against the worst teams in the B1G at home(5-22, 1-26) first 3yrs, (7-12, 3-16) next 2 yrs, to a team that has gone 19-18(14-5, 5-13) with a good chance to be 22-18(15-5, 7-13) and sweeping 5 teams(3-0) last 2seasons. Rutgers went from beating 5 different teams in 3 yrs, to 8 different teams next 2 and 10 diff teams last 2, and only team no wins, UM(0-9), since joining B1G.

Including B1G tourny games
2014-17/17-19/19-21 / Win streaks
PSU 2-3/1-2/1-2 (4-7)
NW 0-5/2-1/3-0 (5-6), 5 of 6,
PU 0-4/0-4/3-0 (3-8) 3W
Md 0-5/0-2/2-2 (2-9) 2 of 3
Neb 1-4/1-3/2-0 (4-7) 3 of 4*
UM 0-4/0-2/0-3 (0-9) X
Minn 1-4/2-2/2-0 (5-6) 4 of 5*
OSU 1-4/1-3/0-3 (2-10) X
MSU 0-4/0-4/1-2 (1-10) X
Wisc 1-3/1-1/1-2 (3-6)
UofI 1-3/0-3/2-1 (3-7) 2W;
IU 0-4/2-2/2-0 (4-6) 4 of 5*,
Iowa 0-4/2-1/0-3 (2-8) X

7 teams with current win streaks/coaching breakthroughs
Before current streaks(3-44), after figuring it out(23-5)
Pike has 6 more teams to figure out more consistently against, PSU and Wisconsin series are competitive(7-13), the other 4 are on the drawing board(5-37).
Is this part 2 and will there be a quiz? JK. Nice work...
 
No, I knew how good Pike is. It's my answer to reading the insane posts of firing Pike, not winning another game, only a bubble teams, not making the tournament. An example of how far we've come in this conference.

2014-2017 3 14ths, 3 B1G seasons 6-48 0.125
2014-15 *1st Wisc*, 13th PSU, 2015-16 13th Minn,
2016-17 9th UofI, T12th PSU, T12th Neb (5 teams) 8 teams no wins 3 years.
1 wins/3yrs over teams finished 1st-7th

2017-2019 14th,12th 2 B1G conf 10-28 0 263
2 wins Iowa, 2 wins NW, 1 Wisc, 1 Minn, 1 OSU, 1 IU, 1 PSU, 1 Neb (8 teams, no sweeps), 5 teams we didn't beat for 2yrs
2 wins/2 yrs over teams finished 1st-7th

2019-2021 T5th,T8th Big conf record 19-18 0.514, proj. 22-18 0.550
PU(3-0), NW(3-0), Md(2-2), UofI(2-1), Neb(2-0), IU(2-0), Minn(2-0), 1 win UW, MSU, PSU. (10 teams, 2 sweeps, 3 more TBD), 3 teams we didn't beat 2yrs
7 wins/2 yrs over teams finished 1st-7th

Pike has taken a team that could barely win more than 1 game against the worst teams in the B1G at home(5-22, 1-26) first 3yrs, (7-12, 3-16) next 2 yrs, to a team that has gone 19-18(14-5, 5-13) with a good chance to be 22-18(15-5, 7-13) and sweeping 5 teams(3-0) last 2seasons. Rutgers went from beating 5 different teams in 3 yrs, to 8 different teams next 2 and 10 diff teams last 2, and only team no wins, UM(0-9), since joining B1G.

Including B1G tourny games
2014-17/17-19/19-21 / Win streaks
PSU 2-3/1-2/1-2 (4-7)
NW 0-5/2-1/3-0 (5-6), 5 of 6,
PU 0-4/0-4/3-0 (3-8) 3W
Md 0-5/0-2/2-2 (2-9) 2 of 3
Neb 1-4/1-3/2-0 (4-7) 3 of 4*
UM 0-4/0-2/0-3 (0-9) X
Minn 1-4/2-2/2-0 (5-6) 4 of 5*
OSU 1-4/1-3/0-3 (2-10) X
MSU 0-4/0-4/1-2 (1-10) X
Wisc 1-3/1-1/1-2 (3-6)
UofI 1-3/0-3/2-1 (3-7) 2W;
IU 0-4/2-2/2-0 (4-6) 4 of 5*,
Iowa 0-4/2-1/0-3 (2-8) X

7 teams with current win streaks/coaching breakthroughs
Before current streaks(3-44), after figuring it out(23-5)
Pike has 6 more teams to figure out more consistently against, PSU and Wisconsin series are competitive(7-13), the other 4 are on the drawing board(5-37).

You are completely missing the mark on the critisms of Pike.
Nobody is saying he hasn't completely turned around the program.
We are now a consistent middle Big Ten team who should be in tournament conversation (bubble or lock) every year.

The question is about taking the next step beyond being a middle of the pack Big Ten team.
At some point, the program needs to prioritize scoring and 3pt shooting in recruiting and system - even at the expense of defense.

The question then becomes, is Pike the coach to take us from our current level to the next level.
Nobody is tearing down Pike. It's about looking forward not backward.
 
You are completely missing the mark on the critisms of Pike.
Nobody is saying he hasn't completely turned around the program.
We are now a consistent middle Big Ten team who should be in tournament conversation (bubble or lock) every year.

The question is about taking the next step beyond being a middle of the pack Big Ten team.
At some point, the program needs to prioritize scoring and 3pt shooting in recruiting and system - even at the expense of defense.

The question then becomes, is Pike the coach to take us from our current level to the next level.
Nobody is tearing down Pike. It's about looking forward not backward.
I understand that part, it took Pike 4 years of coaching up talent to start beating teams in the American East at Stony Brook.

2005-06 2-14 9th (2015-16 1-17) 14th
vs 6th Vt, vs 8th UMBC
2006-07 4-12 9th (2016-17 3-15) 14th
Vs 6th Bing, Vs 3rd BU, @ 5th UMBC, Vs 7th UNH
2007-08 3-13 8th (2017-18 3-17) 14th
2 9th Me, vs 4th VT.
2008-09 8-8 5th (2018-19 7-13) 12th
2 9th Hart, 8th Me, 2 7th Albany, 2 6th UMBC, 1 3rd BU

2009-10 13-3 1st (2019-20 11-9) T5th
L only- 3rd @Me, 5th @Bing, 7th @UNH
The opportunities and close losses last year to pull off 1st or a tie.

2010-11 8-8 5th (2020-21 8-9,3 left) T8th
2 T8th UMBC, 1 T8th Bing, 2 7th UNH, 2 6th Hart, 1 T3rd Me
Tiny step back.

The parallels in his records and opponents record in conference are there.
2011-12 14-2 1st (2021-2022 and beyond)
2012-13 14-2 1st
2013-14 13-3 2nd
2014-15 12-4 2nd
2015-16 14-2 1st
I think this is pretty close to what to expect the next five years.
 
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You are completely missing the mark on the critisms of Pike.
Nobody is saying he hasn't completely turned around the program.
We are now a consistent middle Big Ten team who should be in tournament conversation (bubble or lock) every year.

The question is about taking the next step beyond being a middle of the pack Big Ten team.
At some point, the program needs to prioritize scoring and 3pt shooting in recruiting and system - even at the expense of defense.

The question then becomes, is Pike the coach to take us from our current level to the next level.
Nobody is tearing down Pike. It's about looking forward not backward.

That's where we disagree. People have been tearing down Pike left and right. He's not recruiting well enough, he's not developing these players, saying he should be fired. It's not the majority but more people than it should be. The fact that he got Rutgers to be a bubble team this quickly has spoiled too many people. He has done the impossible and now people are pushing too far ahead too quickly. He got one of the worst power 5 teams historically to now be an NCAA team in 4 years. That is a miracle.

The next goal is to stay consistently as a bubble/lock for the next 4 years. The progress to being a top, consistent team is not something that happens this quickly. We will have down years. Progress isn't linear. To expect otherwise is unrealistic. We are not Duke or North Carolina. This is Rutgers.
 
You are completely missing the mark on the critisms of Pike.
Nobody is saying he hasn't completely turned around the program.
We are now a consistent middle Big Ten team who should be in tournament conversation (bubble or lock) every year.

The question is about taking the next step beyond being a middle of the pack Big Ten team.
At some point, the program needs to prioritize scoring and 3pt shooting in recruiting and system - even at the expense of defense.

The question then becomes, is Pike the coach to take us from our current level to the next level.
Nobody is tearing down Pike. It's about looking forward not backward.
Be careful for what you wish for. We could end up with another Fred Hill type guy.
 
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I understand that part, it took Pike 4 years of coaching up talent to start beating teams in the American East at Stony Brook.

2005-06 2-14 9th (2015-16 1-17) 14th
vs 6th Vt, vs 8th UMBC
2006-07 4-12 9th (2016-17 3-15) 14th
Vs 6th Bing, Vs 3rd BU, @ 5th UMBC, Vs 7th UNH
2007-08 3-13 8th (2017-18 3-17) 14th
2 9th Me, vs 4th VT.
2008-09 8-8 5th (2018-19 7-13) 12th
2 9th Hart, 8th Me, 2 7th Albany, 2 6th UMBC, 1 3rd BU

2009-10 13-3 1st (2019-20 11-9) T5th
L only- 3rd @Me, 5th @Bing, 7th @UNH
The opportunities and close losses last year to pull off 1st or a tie.

2010-11 8-8 5th (2020-21 8-9,3 left) T8th
2 T8th UMBC, 1 T8th Bing, 2 7th UNH, 2 6th Hart, 1 T3rd Me
Tiny step back.

The parallels in his records and opponents record in conference are there.
2011-12 14-2 1st (2021-2022 and beyond)
2012-13 14-2 1st
2013-14 13-3 2nd
2014-15 12-4 2nd
2015-16 14-2 1st
I think this is pretty close to what to expect the next five years.

I think if you are expecting to catapult next year to the point where we are 15-5 Big Ten in a bad year and are 1st/2nd every year you are going to be disappointed. Not because I don't like Pike but the Big Ten is not the America East. No one does that.
 
I think if you are expecting to catapult next year to the point where we are 15-5 Big Ten in a bad year and are 1st/2nd every year you are going to be disappointed. Not because I don't like Pike but the Big Ten is not the America East. No one does that.

Don't think anyone is expecting that type of improvement.

But not being 14th or 13th in 3pt shooting isn't too high of a goal to strive for eventually.
 
I think if you are expecting to catapult next year to the point where we are 15-5 Big Ten in a bad year and are 1st/2nd every year you are going to be disappointed. Not because I don't like Pike but the Big Ten is not the America East. No one does that.
I'm not saying he's going to finish 1st or 2nd every year, like in a 9 team America East, but I think he could be a 1st-4th place, at least top half, team in a 14 team league in most of the next 5 years.
 
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If we want to be a top half team every year, we need more talent. We have Cliff and Jones, but we need more like them. Palmquest and Reiber are not going to get us there.
 
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