COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
- Status
Compulsory to wear masks at Austrian supermarkets now. Like has been said here, basically referring to keeping germs in rather than keeping them out. (bolded portion)
From CNN:
The wearing of face masks in supermarkets will become compulsory from Wednesday, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz announced.
''As of the moment these masks are handed out in front of the supermarkets and it will become compulsory to wear them in supermarkets'', Kurz said, adding that ''the goal is in the medium term to not only wear these masks in supermarkets but also more generally wherever people have contact with each other''
''It would be a mistake to think that such masks protect you - that is definitely not the case. But what can be ensured by this is that there is no risk of transmission in the air. By wearing the mask you can protect other people, '' Kurz added.
From CNN:
The wearing of face masks in supermarkets will become compulsory from Wednesday, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz announced.
''As of the moment these masks are handed out in front of the supermarkets and it will become compulsory to wear them in supermarkets'', Kurz said, adding that ''the goal is in the medium term to not only wear these masks in supermarkets but also more generally wherever people have contact with each other''
''It would be a mistake to think that such masks protect you - that is definitely not the case. But what can be ensured by this is that there is no risk of transmission in the air. By wearing the mask you can protect other people, '' Kurz added.
Asking an auto manufacturer to build ventilators? It's ridiculous to ask for this kind of volume so quickly. He'll half the parts, at least, are most likely coming from China! Is this just an assembly issue? Are parts procured? Test and assembly fixtures need to be fabricated... I don't people realize what's involved in manufacturing hardware. Ventilators are a bit more complex than let's says masks or some consumable...
@RU848789 here is an excellent interview with the leading manufacturer of ventilators.
https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...ssible-a-549d1e18-8c21-45f1-846f-cf5ca254b008
https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...ssible-a-549d1e18-8c21-45f1-846f-cf5ca254b008
Well let’s just hypothesize a moment... someone you love gets the virus... they say with this vaccine there is a great outcome of 90 % recovery rate..without it they die.. what would your answer be?
Are you saying we as a country aren’t capable of mass producing this needed item? Sure it takes a restructuring of the process but we do have some smart people working to accomplish this feat... by your screen name CERU00 would imagine you have an RU degree in chemical Engineering from 2000?
Hydrochloroquine approved by FDA via an EUA
"On Sunday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said in a statement that chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine could be prescribed to teens and adults with COVID-19 "as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible," after the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization. (EUA) That marked the first EUA for a drug related to COVID-19 in the U.S., according to the statement.
https://www.newsweek.com/fda-says-hydroxychloroquine-chloroquine-can-used-treat-coronavirus-1494925
"On Sunday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said in a statement that chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine could be prescribed to teens and adults with COVID-19 "as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible," after the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization. (EUA) That marked the first EUA for a drug related to COVID-19 in the U.S., according to the statement.
https://www.newsweek.com/fda-says-hydroxychloroquine-chloroquine-can-used-treat-coronavirus-1494925
So on one of my muscle car boards had a post from a guy I've known for a long time. He is normally very even keeled, so it was surprising to see this post. He lives in Michigan btw:
So that sounds pretty drastic: she's apparently requisitioning the drug that may be effective in treating corona? Has that even been proven yet?Opie said:
H
We are in a tough spot. I have a difficult time trusting anything “they” say any more.
We are in a tough spot. I have a difficult time trusting anything “they” say any more.
Its fake news, this was debunked a while ago. Here is what Michigan actually put out:
"Dear Licensed Prescribers and Dispensers: The Department of Licensing and Regulatory Affairs has received multiple allegations of Michigan physicians inappropriately prescribing hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine to themselves, family, friends, and/or coworkers without a legitimate medical purpose.
Prescribing hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine without further proof of efficacy for treating COVID-19 or with the intent to stockpile the drug may create a shortage for patients with lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, or other ailments for which chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are proven treatments. Reports of this conduct will be evaluated and may be further investigated for administrative action. Prescribing any kind of prescription must also be associated with medical documentation showing proof of the medical necessity and medical condition for which the patient is being treated. Again, these are drugs that have not been proven scientifically or medically to treat COVID-19.
Michigan pharmacists may see an increased volume of prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine and should take special care to evaluate the prescriptions’ legitimacy. Pursuant to Michigan Administrative Code, R 338.490(2), a pharmacist shall not fill a prescription if the pharmacist believes the prescription will be used for other than legitimate medical purposes or if the prescription could cause harm to a patient.
It is also important to be mindful that licensed health professionals are required to report inappropriate prescribing practices. LARA appreciates all licensed health professionals for their service and cooperation in assuring compliance in acting responsibly while continuing to provide the best possible care for Michigan’s citizens during this unprecedented and very challenging time.
To stay up to date on the latest information regarding the COVID-19 pandemic please go to www.michigan.gov/Coronavirus and the CDC site at www.CDC.gov.
Sincerely,
Deb Gagliardi, Director
Bureau of Professional Licensing
Forrest Pasanski, Director
Enforcement Division
link: https://www.michigan.gov/documents/...cribing_and_Dispensing_3-24-2020_684869_7.pdf
I don't know if this has been posted but good WaPo article. Focus again on masks and everyone keeping germs in rather than thinking about keeping germs out. That's the kind of "herd action/protection" that could make a difference and slow/stop the spread and flatten the curve. Anything is better than nothing.... mask, bandana, tshirt etc... Can a sneeze or cough project 6 feet or whatever through that barrier if much at all. Didn't realize about the Czech Republic and their mobilization to make sure everyone wears some sort of mask and now it's more frowned upon if you're not wearing one than if you to the point it's now illegal to go out without one.
The article:
When historians tally up the many missteps policymakers have made in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the senseless and unscientific push for the general public to avoid wearing masks should be near the top.
The evidence not only fails to support the push, it also contradicts it. It can take a while for official recommendations to catch up with scientific thinking. In this case, such delays might be deadly and economically disastrous. It’s time to make masks a key part of our fight to contain, then defeat, this pandemic. Masks effective at “flattening the curve” can be made at home with nothing more than a T-shirt and a pair of scissors. We should all wear masks — store-bought or homemade — whenever we’re out in public.
At the height of the HIV crisis, authorities did not tell people to put away condoms. As fatalities from car crashes mounted, no one recommended avoiding seat belts. Yet in a global respiratory pandemic, people who should know better are discouraging Americans from using respiratory protection.
Facing shortages of the N95 masks needed by health-care workers, the U.S. surgeon general announced on Feb. 29 that masks “are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus,” despite significant scientific evidence to the contrary. This is not just a problem in the United States: Even the World Health Organization says, “you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.”
There are good reasons to believe DIY masks would help a lot. Look at Hong Kong, Mongolia, South Korea and Taiwan, all of which have covid-19 largely under control. They are all near the original epicenter of the pandemic in mainland China, and they have economic ties to China. Yet none has resorted to a lockdown, such as in China’s Wuhan province. In all of these countries, all of which were hit hard by the SARS respiratory virus outbreak in 2002 and 2003,
everyone is wearing masks in public. George Gao, director general of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, stated, “Many people have asymptomatic or presymptomatic infections. If they are wearing face masks, it can prevent droplets that carry the virus from escaping and infecting others.”
My data-focused research institute, fast.ai, has found 34 scientific papers indicating basic masks can be effective in reducing virus transmission in public — and not a single paper that shows clear evidence that they cannot.
Studies have documented definitively that in controlled environments like airplanes, people with masks rarely infect others and rarely become infected themselves, while those without masks more easily infect others or become infected themselves.
Masks don’t have to be complex to be effective. A 2013 paper tested a variety of household materials and found that something as simple as two layers of a cotton T-shirt is highly effective at blocking virus particles of a wide range of sizes. Oxford University found evidence this month for the effectiveness of simple fabric mouth and nose covers to be so compelling they now are officially acceptable for use in a hospital in many situations. Hospitals running short of N95-rated masks are turning to homemade cloth masks themselves; if it’s good enough to use in a hospital, it’s good enough for a walk to the store.
The reasons the WHO cites for its anti-mask advice are based not on science but on three spurious policy arguments. First, there are not enough masks for hospital workers. Second, masks may themselves become contaminated and pass on an infection to the people wearing them. Third, masks could encourage people to engage in more risky behavior.
None of these is a good reason to avoid wearing a mask in public.
Yes, there is a shortage of manufactured masks, and these should go to hospital workers. But anyone can make a mask at home by cutting up a cotton T-shirt, tying it back together and then washing it at the end of the day. Another approach, recommended by the Hong Kong Consumer Council, involves rigging a simple mask with a paper towel and rubber bands that can be thrown in the trash at the end of each day.
It’s true that masks can become contaminated. But better a mask gets contaminated than the person who is wearing it. It is not hard to wash or dispose of a mask at the end of the day and then wash hands thoroughly to prevent a contaminated mask from spreading infection.
Finally, the idea that masks encourage risky behavior is nonsensical. We give cars anti-lock brakes and seat belts despite the possibility that people might drive more riskily knowing the safety equipment is there. Construction workers wear hard hats even though the hats presumably could encourage less attention to safety. If any risky behavior does occur, societies have the power to make laws against it.
Many authorities still advise only people with symptoms to wear masks. But this doesn’t help with a disease like covid-19, since a person who does not yet show symptoms can still be contagious. A study in Iceland, where there has been unprecedented levels of testing, found that “about half of those who tested positive [for covid-19] are nonsymptomatic,” according to Iceland’s chief epidemiologist, Thorolfur Gudnason. In fact, in early February, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony S. Fauci warned there was strong evidence that covid-19 spreads even among people without symptoms. If we all wear masks, people unknowingly infected with the coronavirus would be less likely to spread it.
I also have heard suggestions that widespread usage of masks in the West will be culturally impossible. The story of the Czech Republic debunks this notion. Social media influencers campaigning to encourage DIY mask creation catalyzed an extraordinary mobilization by nearly the whole population. Within three days, there were enough masks for everyone in the country, and most people were wearing them. This was an entirely grass-roots community effort.
When social distancing requirements forced a small bar in Prague to close, its owner, Štefan Olejár, converted Bar Behind the Curtain into a mask manufacturing facility. He procured sewing machines from the community and makes about 400 cotton masks per day. The bar employs 10 people, including a driver who distributes the masks directly to people who are not able to leave their homes.
There are “mask trees” on street corners around the country, where people hang up masks they have made so others can take them.
The most important message shared in the Czech Republic has been this: “My mask protects you; your mask protects me.” Wearing a mask there is now considered a prosocial behavior. Going outside without one is frowned on as an antisocial action that puts your community at risk. In fact, the community reaction has been so strong that the government has responded by making it illegal to go out in public without a mask.
When I first started wearing a mask in public, I felt a bit odd. But I reminded myself I’m helping my community, and I’m sure in the coming weeks people who don’t wear masks will be the ones who feel out of place. Now I’m trying to encourage everyone to join me — and to get their friends to wear masks, too — with a social media campaign around #masks4all.
Community use of masks alone is not enough to stop the spread. Restrictions on movement and commerce need to stay in place until hospital systems clearly are able to handle the patient load. Then, we need a rigorous system of contact tracing, testing and quarantine of those potentially infected.
Given the weight of evidence, it seems likely that universal mask wearing should be a part of the solution. Every single one of us can make it happen — starting today.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/28/masks-all-coronavirus/
The article:
When historians tally up the many missteps policymakers have made in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the senseless and unscientific push for the general public to avoid wearing masks should be near the top.
The evidence not only fails to support the push, it also contradicts it. It can take a while for official recommendations to catch up with scientific thinking. In this case, such delays might be deadly and economically disastrous. It’s time to make masks a key part of our fight to contain, then defeat, this pandemic. Masks effective at “flattening the curve” can be made at home with nothing more than a T-shirt and a pair of scissors. We should all wear masks — store-bought or homemade — whenever we’re out in public.
At the height of the HIV crisis, authorities did not tell people to put away condoms. As fatalities from car crashes mounted, no one recommended avoiding seat belts. Yet in a global respiratory pandemic, people who should know better are discouraging Americans from using respiratory protection.
Facing shortages of the N95 masks needed by health-care workers, the U.S. surgeon general announced on Feb. 29 that masks “are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus,” despite significant scientific evidence to the contrary. This is not just a problem in the United States: Even the World Health Organization says, “you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.”
There are good reasons to believe DIY masks would help a lot. Look at Hong Kong, Mongolia, South Korea and Taiwan, all of which have covid-19 largely under control. They are all near the original epicenter of the pandemic in mainland China, and they have economic ties to China. Yet none has resorted to a lockdown, such as in China’s Wuhan province. In all of these countries, all of which were hit hard by the SARS respiratory virus outbreak in 2002 and 2003,
everyone is wearing masks in public. George Gao, director general of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, stated, “Many people have asymptomatic or presymptomatic infections. If they are wearing face masks, it can prevent droplets that carry the virus from escaping and infecting others.”
My data-focused research institute, fast.ai, has found 34 scientific papers indicating basic masks can be effective in reducing virus transmission in public — and not a single paper that shows clear evidence that they cannot.
Studies have documented definitively that in controlled environments like airplanes, people with masks rarely infect others and rarely become infected themselves, while those without masks more easily infect others or become infected themselves.
Masks don’t have to be complex to be effective. A 2013 paper tested a variety of household materials and found that something as simple as two layers of a cotton T-shirt is highly effective at blocking virus particles of a wide range of sizes. Oxford University found evidence this month for the effectiveness of simple fabric mouth and nose covers to be so compelling they now are officially acceptable for use in a hospital in many situations. Hospitals running short of N95-rated masks are turning to homemade cloth masks themselves; if it’s good enough to use in a hospital, it’s good enough for a walk to the store.
The reasons the WHO cites for its anti-mask advice are based not on science but on three spurious policy arguments. First, there are not enough masks for hospital workers. Second, masks may themselves become contaminated and pass on an infection to the people wearing them. Third, masks could encourage people to engage in more risky behavior.
None of these is a good reason to avoid wearing a mask in public.
Yes, there is a shortage of manufactured masks, and these should go to hospital workers. But anyone can make a mask at home by cutting up a cotton T-shirt, tying it back together and then washing it at the end of the day. Another approach, recommended by the Hong Kong Consumer Council, involves rigging a simple mask with a paper towel and rubber bands that can be thrown in the trash at the end of each day.
It’s true that masks can become contaminated. But better a mask gets contaminated than the person who is wearing it. It is not hard to wash or dispose of a mask at the end of the day and then wash hands thoroughly to prevent a contaminated mask from spreading infection.
Finally, the idea that masks encourage risky behavior is nonsensical. We give cars anti-lock brakes and seat belts despite the possibility that people might drive more riskily knowing the safety equipment is there. Construction workers wear hard hats even though the hats presumably could encourage less attention to safety. If any risky behavior does occur, societies have the power to make laws against it.
Many authorities still advise only people with symptoms to wear masks. But this doesn’t help with a disease like covid-19, since a person who does not yet show symptoms can still be contagious. A study in Iceland, where there has been unprecedented levels of testing, found that “about half of those who tested positive [for covid-19] are nonsymptomatic,” according to Iceland’s chief epidemiologist, Thorolfur Gudnason. In fact, in early February, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony S. Fauci warned there was strong evidence that covid-19 spreads even among people without symptoms. If we all wear masks, people unknowingly infected with the coronavirus would be less likely to spread it.
I also have heard suggestions that widespread usage of masks in the West will be culturally impossible. The story of the Czech Republic debunks this notion. Social media influencers campaigning to encourage DIY mask creation catalyzed an extraordinary mobilization by nearly the whole population. Within three days, there were enough masks for everyone in the country, and most people were wearing them. This was an entirely grass-roots community effort.
When social distancing requirements forced a small bar in Prague to close, its owner, Štefan Olejár, converted Bar Behind the Curtain into a mask manufacturing facility. He procured sewing machines from the community and makes about 400 cotton masks per day. The bar employs 10 people, including a driver who distributes the masks directly to people who are not able to leave their homes.
There are “mask trees” on street corners around the country, where people hang up masks they have made so others can take them.
The most important message shared in the Czech Republic has been this: “My mask protects you; your mask protects me.” Wearing a mask there is now considered a prosocial behavior. Going outside without one is frowned on as an antisocial action that puts your community at risk. In fact, the community reaction has been so strong that the government has responded by making it illegal to go out in public without a mask.
When I first started wearing a mask in public, I felt a bit odd. But I reminded myself I’m helping my community, and I’m sure in the coming weeks people who don’t wear masks will be the ones who feel out of place. Now I’m trying to encourage everyone to join me — and to get their friends to wear masks, too — with a social media campaign around #masks4all.
Community use of masks alone is not enough to stop the spread. Restrictions on movement and commerce need to stay in place until hospital systems clearly are able to handle the patient load. Then, we need a rigorous system of contact tracing, testing and quarantine of those potentially infected.
Given the weight of evidence, it seems likely that universal mask wearing should be a part of the solution. Every single one of us can make it happen — starting today.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/28/masks-all-coronavirus/
Thanks, kind of depressing. It's why every country needs its own Dyson, assuming they have one, to step up to innovate to quickly produce ventilators (and hopefully Dyson would share their design to make 10,000 ventilators by next week with others in the interests of humanity, although who knows if others could duplicate that with regard to parts and assembly).
here's a question to those who don't think masks are useful. if the official guidance tells people to sneeze and cough into their elbows and sleeves to minimize aerosolization (is that a word?) and from germs getting on their hands, why wouldn't masks be as effective, or more effective in controlling this? sometimes people suspend the use of logic in times of crisis. this isn't the time to do that.
Thinking about it, if it became more of a social norm for everyone to wear a mask or face covering and was advocated from top down...top public scientists/health experts and politicians....it could help hasten getting back towards some sort of normalcy and keeping it that way even as it may pop up again here and there. It's offers a good form of herd protection at least until treatments/vaccines become available.
Or a bunch of smart students and scientists from MIT, who have announced the design (and prototype as pictured) of an emergency ventilator that can be built for about $100, centered around ambu-bags, which are manually operated devices that deliver air to patients in emergency situations like cardiac arrest and these are readily available in every hospital. The key is the design of a device that can automate the squeezing of the bag in a programmable fashion to deliver air/oxygen, as needed by the patient without having to have someone manually squeeze the bag every few seconds 24/7. Now this is innovation. Maybe GM can build these.
https://scitechdaily.com/mit-posts-...ergency-ventilator-that-can-be-built-for-100/
Hard to tell what's going on in CA with testing results being so far behind tests. Interesting Times article comparing NY and CA wondering if CA's earlier shelter in place approach is paying dividends or if things are just delayed in CA.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-cases-california-new-york.html
However, the livescience article excerpted below highlights the testing mess in CA, where they only have 25,000 results so far (vs. 172,000 in NY), so who knows what's really going on without enough data? Certainly deaths being way lower (130 vs. 965 in NY) are absolute proof that the outbreak is not as bad in CA, at least yet. Let's see where CA is in a week or two.
So far, labs in the state have tested 89,600 people for COVID-19 as of Saturday (March 28), according to CDPH. Of the tests conducted, results from 64,400 are pending. California has fallen behind other states, such as New York, in testing for COVID-19, according to The Los Angeles Times. Testing for the disease in California has been uncoordinated, with various state, private and academic labs conducting their own tests, leading to an incomplete picture of infections in the state, the Times reported.
"We are cobbling together various approaches," Susan Butler-Wu, an associate professor of clinical pathology at the University of Southern California's Keck School of Medicine and a director of a clinical microbiology lab in Los Angeles, told the Times. "The whole thing is badly discombobulated.... I think 100% that the system is broken."
https://www.livescience.com/california-coronavirus-updates.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-cases-california-new-york.html
However, the livescience article excerpted below highlights the testing mess in CA, where they only have 25,000 results so far (vs. 172,000 in NY), so who knows what's really going on without enough data? Certainly deaths being way lower (130 vs. 965 in NY) are absolute proof that the outbreak is not as bad in CA, at least yet. Let's see where CA is in a week or two.
So far, labs in the state have tested 89,600 people for COVID-19 as of Saturday (March 28), according to CDPH. Of the tests conducted, results from 64,400 are pending. California has fallen behind other states, such as New York, in testing for COVID-19, according to The Los Angeles Times. Testing for the disease in California has been uncoordinated, with various state, private and academic labs conducting their own tests, leading to an incomplete picture of infections in the state, the Times reported.
"We are cobbling together various approaches," Susan Butler-Wu, an associate professor of clinical pathology at the University of Southern California's Keck School of Medicine and a director of a clinical microbiology lab in Los Angeles, told the Times. "The whole thing is badly discombobulated.... I think 100% that the system is broken."
https://www.livescience.com/california-coronavirus-updates.html
Anyone know how much testing we are doing per day now in total? I read that we need to get to ~750,000 tests per day before we can start thinking about moving onto the next stage of our recovery. I wonder how that number compares to where we currently stand.
I always thought that this is a crazy idea. I have worked in heavy manufacturing my whole life and although I know nothing about ventilators, I would think there is almost zero overlap between the manufacturing of an automobile (at least the work that a GM or Ford plant does) and a medical device. They do not even manufacturer their own A/C compressors. When I first heard the reports that Jaguar was working with the UK, I thought it was just a publicity stunt to make people feel like the UK government was doing something.
There has to be better and closer technologies and manufacturing plants in the US then automakers. I give Tyson a lot of credit for what they are doing but it's not fair to ask why GM can't ramp up to build something they know nothing about when compared to a company that manufacturers multiple types of air moving equipment.
Clearly the guy on the muscle car board was posting political BS. This thread has no place for that stuff.
He was asking a simple question and looking for input and got it (and hopefully others now see that the report was inaccurate, which is good) - that's not inherently political.
Richard Branson joining in to try and produce ventilators.
From the article:
Newsom connected Virgin Orbit with doctors and engineers at University of California Irvine and University of Texas in Austin, who Hart said “were working on a concept to make a simple ventilator.” The goal was to develop and ventilator that could be built quickly and mass produced.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/bra...n-coronavirus-ventilator-mass-production.html
From the article:
Newsom connected Virgin Orbit with doctors and engineers at University of California Irvine and University of Texas in Austin, who Hart said “were working on a concept to make a simple ventilator.” The goal was to develop and ventilator that could be built quickly and mass produced.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/bra...n-coronavirus-ventilator-mass-production.html
This could be “Apollo 13 - Part II”
“The gravity of the situation is heavier this time...”
(sounds much better when you read it in a voice like the “In a World....” guy does)
“The gravity of the situation is heavier this time...”
(sounds much better when you read it in a voice like the “In a World....” guy does)
- 66.5K positives in NY so far, and 7000 new cases in NY yesterday (7200 new the day before) so another slight decrease in new cases. This is not yet the “peak” since hospitalization/ICU cases are still increasing, as per below, but it’s a good sign that maybe the peak will not be the modeled peak and won’t generally exceed current hospital capacities (except in local situations) – if the current interventions are maintained – but they still need to supply for the peak, in case compliance wanes and/or rates go back up.
- 2738 total deaths in the US and 1218 total deaths in NY, up 253 from yesterday (was up 237 two days ago); 161 deaths in NJ so far
- Total of 9500 currently hospitalized (1000 new vs. 1200 new yesterday),
- Total of 2352 in ICU (315 new vs. 272 new yesterday
- Total of 4204 discharged vs. 3572 as of yesterday, so 632 discharged yesterday vs. 846 the day before and 681 two days ago (could just be fluctuations).
- Now hospitalization rate still doubling every 6 days, looking at last 3 days data (was 2, then 4 b4), so rate of increase has clearly leveled off, which is good.
- No NYC data shared today and no testing data shared today (not sure why)
- 80% self resolve or mild symptoms resolving at home
- 149K cases in the US: 66.5K in NY, 13.4K in NJ, 6300 in CA, 5500 in MI, 4900 in WA, 4900 in MA, 4900 in FL, 4600 in IL, 3500 in LA, 3400 in PA
- Making progress on supplies, but difficult with 50 states, feds, hospitals all competing; vents now $50K (was $20K); it’s too late to prepare when the storm hits.
- Public has to be more responsible with staying at home and keeping 6’ away from people when one has to go out; might have to close some playgrounds (too dense)
- Support our “troops” – health care workers, first responders, essential personnel, etc.
- His goal is to engage the POTUS as a partner and not to play politics; has praised him many times, but will also point out shortfalls; “no red and blue, only red, white and blue and we’re in a national emergency, a war”
It has nothing to do with intelligence. In a typical medical device there many many integral parts. Many are custom and many arent off the shelf. Aside from the components, there is so much more work that goes into starting up a manufacturing line. All of it takes time. GM knows nothing about medical devices! Ask a freaking medical company to do this, not GM.
I actually have a Ceramic Engineering degree (since changed to Materials Engineering) and work as a manufacturing Engineer for a high technology medical device manufacturer.
I'm impressed with the stories above about multiple independent places designing simple ventilators using ambi bags (sp?) with a simple automated actuator to compress them. ambi bags are the handheld air bags that are attached to breathing tubes and often used by paramedics. Te idea is that these bags are simple and cheap and readily available. One of these designs was from MIT and is pictured somewhere above in this thread, I think. Another is being developed by Richard Branson's Virgin Orbit engineers along with U of Texas IIRC.
Assuming these are quickly approved by the FDA I would imagine that tens (maybe hundreds) of thousands could be made before April is over.
Assuming these are quickly approved by the FDA I would imagine that tens (maybe hundreds) of thousands could be made before April is over.
Last edited:
GM is working with Ventec
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/business/gm-ventilators-coronavirus-trump.html
According to worldOmeter
525 deaths in US on 3/28
363 deaths in US on 3/29
288 deaths in US so far today 3/30 We won’t know the final number for 5 hours.
Is this a trend? Could it be that the use of hydrochloriquine is helping with the number of deaths?
Something to watch.
I don’t know the specifics of each detail, but they are comfortable they can convert to making them in fairly short order for a couple of reasons laid out below.
All the electrical components in a ventilator can be made by auto manufacturers who already are making the necessary electrical components for a car.
Auto manufacturers also have access to machinery that are able to mass produce many components simply by entering the specs of said component. Even if they themselves are not able to mass produce every single component, they have access to thousands of fabricators and engineers as well as a massive supplier network in the US who can assist as needed.
Finally, auto manufacturers are masters of assembly. They will repurpose the current assembly line infrastructure to have workers assemble the ventilators.
Obviously much harder than I made it sound, but they have amazing capability.
All the electrical components in a ventilator can be made by auto manufacturers who already are making the necessary electrical components for a car.
Auto manufacturers also have access to machinery that are able to mass produce many components simply by entering the specs of said component. Even if they themselves are not able to mass produce every single component, they have access to thousands of fabricators and engineers as well as a massive supplier network in the US who can assist as needed.
Finally, auto manufacturers are masters of assembly. They will repurpose the current assembly line infrastructure to have workers assemble the ventilators.
Obviously much harder than I made it sound, but they have amazing capability.
Monday, the State is reporting 40,806 total tests conducted, which represents an increase of 5780 on Sunday and 5204 today. The percent positive continues to climb and is now 38.2%.
The Governor indicates that the state is not testing at the level we want to, and we are hampered mostly by a lack of people to conduct the tests and PPE. He did indicate that the availability of Abbott's new 15-minute test would be a game changer in making more tests available. While it would allow testing at local doctor office and urgent care centers, the workers there would still need PPE, so that issue would need to be addressed. But a 15-minute test would eliminate the lag time in test results, giving a more current picture of the crisis.
Also, the rate of growth in positive test results has increased, after declining over the past 3 days. But it isn't clear if that increase is just normal variation or due to the limited testing of symptomatic people.
NJ needs to find away to increase the testing rate by at least 50% to about 7500 per day.
Sterilization of masks has been now been approved and is really a no-brainer.
Our throw away culture has created the ppe shortage.
I think those collecting test samples need N95 masks and face shields, since the test requires sticking a swab up the subject's nose and down their throat, which could cause them to cough, sneeze, or otherwise aspirate the virus.
Remember when some were complaining about plastic bags being thrown away? How much plastic PPE has been and will be thrown away in 2020?
There has to be a better way than trashing a set of PPE after using it for just minutes.
In theory, the death rate should continue going up for awhile longer, based on it being a lagging indicator vs. cases, which are still going up and are likely to keep going up for awhile, given growing outbreaks outside of NY/NJ. Need to wait to see the end of the day data and we'd really need to see the deaths per day data level off and/or decline for many days before being confident that the trend is real. However, if we see a real trend in deaths, there should be far less "uncertainty" about the data vs. positive cases, which we know are a strong function of tests conducted, as deaths attributed to COVID-19 should be pretty damn obvious.
And even if the death rates decrease, it'll take some time to figure out why, as there are quite a few "off-label" usages of drugs like HCQ, remdesivir and others going on, plus, as long as we're not overwhelmed with cases - and we're not yet - the US is second to none in the quality of critical care. It would be fantastic if they leveled off or went down, but I wouldn't bet on it.
More on the malaria drug:
https://www.dailywire.com/news/nova...book&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=mattwalsh
As noted by The Daily Wire on Sunday, France officially sanctioned this weekend chloroquine for certain patients infected with COVID-19.
“The French government has officially sanctioned prescriptions of chloroquine to treat certain coronavirus patients,” France 24 English reported Saturday.
“This ensures continued treatment of patients who have been treated for several years for a chronic condition with this drug, but also allows a temporary authorization to allow certain patients with coronavirus to benefit from this therapeutic route,” said Jérôme Salomon, France’s director general of health.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/nova...book&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=mattwalsh
As noted by The Daily Wire on Sunday, France officially sanctioned this weekend chloroquine for certain patients infected with COVID-19.
“The French government has officially sanctioned prescriptions of chloroquine to treat certain coronavirus patients,” France 24 English reported Saturday.
“This ensures continued treatment of patients who have been treated for several years for a chronic condition with this drug, but also allows a temporary authorization to allow certain patients with coronavirus to benefit from this therapeutic route,” said Jérôme Salomon, France’s director general of health.
- Status
