COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

Discussion in 'Rutgers Football' started by Richard Schnyderite, Jul 1, 2020.

  1. Richard Schnyderite

    Richard Schnyderite Heisman Winner
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    Hey guys so we’ve decided to start a new COVID thread. This thread will once again have any and all posts pertaining to the current COVID-19 pandemic.

    The reason for the starting of a new thread is because the last one got so political it was hard to control. However that old thread still had a lot of good info in it, so it is only locked and everyone can still view it HERE.

    Now here is everyone’s one warning, the minute things get political here the moderators will have no choice but to ban you. With that being said - post away!
     
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  2. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    Alrighty then. Figured we should continue the discussion of perhaps the most important scientific and public health question we have right now - is the T-cell immune response being seen in significant percentages of people unexposed to the virus (measured in donor samples from before COVID) and those who have had the virus but were asymptomatic indicative of some sort of "cross-reactivity" that can confer either complete immunity (so no infection) or partial immunity (so only a mild or asymptomatic infection)? If only maybe 20-40% of the population would ever become infected (or at least have symptoms) is hugely different from what most epidemiologists have been thinking for quite some time (and still do), i.e., that the virus will run through populations until 55-80% are eventually infected (depending on the R0 transmission rate).

    The answer to this question obviously has a huge impact on how many people are at risk of serious illness and death, although it doesn't affect the fact that we know at least 20-30% are at risk, simply based on the outbreaks in places like NYC/NENJ, Northern Italy and London, where upwards of 20+% were infected (as per antibody testing). And given that most of the US has likely only seen 5-6% infected, so far, there's still a long way to go to reach 20-30%, i.e., even at "only" 20% at risk, assuming the 0.5-1.0% infection fatality rate seen in most places (NY is at 1.1%, for example), that could translate to 330-660K US deaths, eventually, assuming no interventions, cure, or vaccine.

    Note that measuring T-cell levels that have a response to COVID is very difficult and time-consuming in advanced laboratories, so there won't be any "easy test" for this anytime soon. Directly below are links to a couple of new papers on this and the most recent "In the Pipeline" blog entry on this topic and below that, I cut/pasted an earlier post on this, in italics (don't seem to be able to "reply as a quote" from a locked thread) as background info.

    https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1
    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...ghts-on-antibody-persistence-and-the-pandemic

    Edit: adding in a very good overview article on this which hits all the highlights and doesn't get too geeky deep into the science:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...does-it-exist-coronavirus-population-immunity



    Post from 12:24 pm, 6/30/20
    https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-220#post-4622151

    "23 - if interested, take a look through my two posts from this weekend on this and a third, which has the source to the initial work on this - been talking for a couple of months now about the potential for "cross-reactivity" in the population, i.e., people having some level of immunity to disease A (coronavirus) due to exposure to some other virus (other coronaviruses for example) in the past. Probably 50% of unexposed people have T-cell activity against CV2, despite not having measurable antibodies, based on experiments with small groups of subjects. It's unknown whether this confers none, a little or a lot of immunity for these people, but if it's a lot, that's huge and could provide the scientific underpinnings to the probabilistic modeling Friston has done, which has some holes, as per my 2nd post, linked below. He could be right, but it's far from a given.

    This is the link to the article that wisr quotes in his post:

    https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/
    https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-215#post-4620781
    https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-216#post-4620885
    https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-116#post-4563258"

     
    2 RU848789, Jul 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
  3. Joey Bags

    Joey Bags Junior
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    Interesting.

    A chinese study came out via SCMP saying antibodies only last for a couple of months at most. It could be the CCP spreading disinfo or it could be accurate, who knows.

    Curious what it would mean if you had T-cells that fight the virus without antibodies.
     
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  4. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    And here's at least one other obviously hot topic these days for those of us in the US: the ongoing outbreaks in a number of states in the south/west that didn't have major outbreaks earlier (at least not like the NE US did). Below is last night's post on this from the other thread to start things off.

    https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-222#post-4622777

    Updating from Saturday's post. Anyone expecting significant increases in deaths in any of these 5 states (TX/FL/AZ/CA/GA) before about now (except maybe AZ; see below) just hasn't been paying attention to previous trajectories/timelines. The increases in cases in May and early June in these states were fairly small, except for AZ, which started climbing significantly in early June, which is likely why we're starting to see deaths climb there the past few days (see graphic for AZ below and FL to see the difference, as FL hasn't really started to rise much yet). I like this graphic more than the simple 7-day moving average, as it normalizes the 7-day average vs the greatest peak in cases on a percentage basis, making state-to-state comparisons on a single graph easier.

    The significant increases started about mid-June for TX/FL/CA/GA and given a general 1-2 week lag in seeing hospitalizations rise (which we're seeing) and a general 2-4 weeks lag in seeing deaths increase, so we should start to see deaths increase this week and especially next week. But as I've said multiple times, given more younger people infected, more mild cases detected (with a lot of testing vs. little to no testing in the NY/NJ case, early on), and improved medical procedures/treatments, I would expect the rise in deaths to be somewhat muted vs. what we saw in NY/NJ. If that occurs, that's great for humans, but it makes it hard for scientists to ascribe root causes to a change like that vs. what we saw in the first wave.


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    @Richard Schnyderite @DJ Spanky - suggestion: could you reopen the locked thread and put in a post at the end linking to this thread? I know it took me some time to realize there was another thread. Thanks.

    And a question: is there any way to enable the "reply" or "quote" functionality in that thread if it's locked? Lots of great info in that thread that would be nice to be able to bring to this thread, as needed and that functionality is easier than cutting/pasting previous posts or just providing links to them.
     
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  6. RU-05

    RU-05 All Conference
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    Good news on a Pfizer vaccine?

    24 for 24.

    Cramer(stock guy) says this is very unlike Pfizer to release good news, saw it as a sign that they must really be confident in their results.

    Unlike the MRNA info release which he labeled a "fiasco".

    @RU848789 , your take?

    Edit: his overall take was very skeptical. Noting this is another in what seems like a long line of great news tests that thus far have not proven to live up to their great news.
     
    6 RU-05, Jul 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
  7. gregkoko

    gregkoko Freshman
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    I know last month Pfizer was bullish that they'd have a vaccine by the end of October but haven't seen any new news recently. I also thought Pfizer was developing an mRNA vaccine?
     
  8. RU-05

    RU-05 All Conference
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    yes, this one is MRNA.

    Apparently they have a couple other vaccine candidates out there, not sure if they are MRNA or not.
     
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  9. RUevolution36

    RUevolution36 All Conference
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  10. DJ Spanky

    DJ Spanky The Lunatic is in my Head
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    Done.
    I believe you can quote the info in that thread, then insert the quotes in the reply box at the bottom of that thread. You can then cut them from there, and paste them over here. Here's an example:
    A little clunky, but it works.
     
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  11. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    I assume you're talking about the Pfizer/BioNTech collaboration on an mRNA vaccine, which announced phase I/II results this morning, correct? Sounds like it had good antibody response, but they haven't measured T-cell/B-cell response and there were a lot of fevers, although that's not considered a "serious" side effect - but it was enough to discontinue the highest of the 3 doses tested. Biggest issue might still be that no mRNA vaccine has made it out of R&D and into being a commercial product. Maybe they or Moderna will break that streak. Not sure what your 24 for 24 comment means and confused by your mRNA comment, since this is an mRNA vaccine.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/01...m-pfizer-and-biontech-shows-positive-results/
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.30.20142570v1.full.pdf
     
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  12. Spare130

    Spare130 All American
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    I thought this was going to be a separate thread for the potential new pandemic beginning in China lol.
     
  13. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    Thanks for the post. On the quoting feature, when I look at the locked thread, I only see the "report" and "like" buttons, not the "quote" or "reply" buttons. Maybe you can as a mod and we can't?
     
  14. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    Thanks for not deleting, by the way. There's probably a small book's worth of work I put into that thread - lots of spare time in retirement and no winter weather to post about, lol...
     
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  15. RU-05

    RU-05 All Conference
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    Sorry, MRNA is the stock symbol for Moderna.

    24 for 24 was the results of efficacy I guess? perhaps from one of the dose levels. As in it worked in every patient tested.

    I remember Moderna was touting 8 for 8 a month or so ago, which again, I think, was one of the dose levels.
     
    15 RU-05, Jul 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
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  16. RU-05

    RU-05 All Conference
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    Even worse then Covid. Luckily no evidence of human to human transmission. Supposedly came from some weird chinese animal we've never heard before.

    Seriously though, if this is actually a real thing..........
     
  17. Spare130

    Spare130 All American
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    At least we will be insanely prepared for this one.
     
  18. Caliknight

    Caliknight Legend
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    Looking like Spring for a vaccine from what I was told yesterday.
     
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  19. mikershoein

    mikershoein All Conference
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    In before the lock
     
  20. ArminRU

    ArminRU All American
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    Thanks for doing this mods!
     
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  21. RU-05

    RU-05 All Conference
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    A particular company? Or just the general thought given the overall progression of trials?
     
  22. Caliknight

    Caliknight Legend
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    We didn’t get into specific companies as we were meeting for other reasons.
     
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  23. Proud NJ Sports Fan

    Proud NJ Sports Fan Hall of Famer
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    Yeah very weird, a pig
     
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  24. RU23

    RU23 All American
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    Mainly posting just so I get notifications...

    But the US has bought up basically the entire stock of Remdesevir, an incredibly expensive drug, which has been proven to...not really work..maybe extends life by a few days?

    Aren’t we the brightest.
     
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  25. Jm0513

    Jm0513 All Conference
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    Just hit the little heart below title to watch the thread:)
     
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  26. RUkrazy89

    RUkrazy89 Redshirt
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    This is certainly a loaded question, seeing how as a country we can't even agree on if wearing masks if effective or not...

    Numbers. I know you are bullish on an effective vaccine coming out by EOY. What would you say is the timeline to scale up production based on the type of vaccine? I.e the old school ones from China vs the new school "engineered" ones the US is working on.
     
  27. RU23

    RU23 All American
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    Not an expert whatsoever, so hopefully others clarify, but what I’ve seen is Moderna and “new school” ones are much less scaleable (at least 1 year just for enough doses for the US), while old school ones would be more like 3-6 months for way more doses.
     
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  28. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    Also, to kickstart the vaccine discussion, here's Monday's post from the other thread...

    https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-218#post-4621615

    An update to the vaccine development landscape in today's blog by Derek Lowe. If you really want to know the current status and issues associated with all the major vaccine candidates and the players in the game, read this. Nobody does it better, IMO. He summarizes the efforts across the major vaccine categories: viral vectors (includes the various adenovirus approached such as the Oxford-AZ collaboration which just entered phase III trials), genetic vaccines (includes Moderna's mRNA vaccine), recombinant protein vaccines (like Novavax's) and deactivated virus vaccines (old school, but proven and only China is playing in this space). The viral vector and genetic vaccine approaches have never been successfully deployed and approved in humans before, hence the skepticism of many on these approaches. He does these every few weeks.

    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...navirus-vaccine-update-june-29#comment-322982
     
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  29. DJ Spanky

    DJ Spanky The Lunatic is in my Head
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    Okay, that might be it as I see the full range of buttons when I view posts in that thread.
     
  30. DJ Spanky

    DJ Spanky The Lunatic is in my Head
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  31. Barnaby&Neill

    Barnaby&Neill Senior
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    I know @bac2therac was looking for something like this for a while. Per Yale researchers using public data:

    781k total deaths in US in March, April and May. 19% higher than would otherwise be expected (122k excess deaths). 95k of these deaths are officially attributed to Covid during that time.

    The 25-30k gap between excess deaths and Covid deaths is some combination of: (1) deaths not tested for Covid; (2) people avoiding medical care for fear of getting exposed to Covid in ERs; (3) little understood indirect causes of the virus (an increase in strokes and heart attacks is thought to be related to the virus).

    States saw an increase in excess deaths after also reporting an increase in people reporting ‘influenza like illness.’

    The most simple takeaway: in the first three months of this crisis, where COVID infections appeared in a population, an increase in deaths followed.

    Curious to see how this changes as treatment methods improve and testing accelerates. Will closer to 100% of the excess deaths be directly attributed to COVID? Will we have fewer excess deaths altogether despite rising cases?

    Time will tell.
     
  32. RU-05

    RU-05 All Conference
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    AZ reports 88 new deaths. This is their high to date. Yes there is the caveat that Wednesday is the day that typically sees the high #'s for the week. But the direction continues to move upwards.

    So continuing the debate from last night. At what point does this become significant? And should we not try to look fwd given that these #'s will continue to increase?


    The 4877 new cases is also a new high.
     
    32 RU-05, Jul 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
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  33. RU23

    RU23 All American
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    Good stuff, please provide source links if you can.
     
  34. Barnaby&Neill

    Barnaby&Neill Senior
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    I should add that this still leaves a lot of questions. We tend to think of this as total deaths = expected deaths + Covid deaths + unexplained excess deaths.

    However, expected deaths includes things like car accidents that surely must have decreased during that three month period. A deep dive into death stats might reveal a bigger gap of unexplained deaths than the first equation suggests.

    Really tough to say without seeing the data. At some point the number (even if larger than we think) is less important than the core concept: where Covid-19 infects, people tend to die. So we should take some kind of precautions.
     
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  35. Barnaby&Neill

    Barnaby&Neill Senior
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  36. T2Kplus10

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    Thanks for the new thread!

    @DJ Spanky - check out my new vaccine thread in the normal section of the board, not sure if you want to merge or delete it?
     
  37. ArminRU

    ArminRU All American
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  38. RUkrazy89

    RUkrazy89 Redshirt
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    I read through that blog, very interesting stuff, some (most) is above my pay grade. I am curious on the scalability of the vaccines.
     
  39. Joey Bags

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    Somerset County reported 29 new cases today, most since May 20th. Not sure why, people are doing really well with mask wearing here.
     
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  40. T2Kplus10

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    Interesting, here is the trended data. Wonder if they had an outbreak at a LTC/nursing home? Most recent days have been in the single digits.

    https://somerset-county-nj-coronavirus-response-somerset.hub.arcgis.com/
     
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