Dylan Harper Breakdown | FILM ROOM
- Thread starter Tango Two
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Watching that film, I was trying to think of recent Big Ten player comps to Harper ... so, this is an imperfect comp, sorry: Brice Sensabough.
Similar body types, similar deceptive athleticism (more athleticism than one might initially think), some similar scoring skills at all 3 levels. Both used their bodies similarly to get shots.
But the comp is imperfect in several ways:
1) Harper was rated much higher out of high school than Sensabough - and for good reason, IMO.
2) Harper is much more than just a scorer - he is also a playmaker, and MUCH better court awareness and basketball IQ ... next level awareness (one of Sensabough's weaknesses, shown in his 1 year at OSU, was lack of court awareness, and a single-mindedness to go it alone offensively).
3. Harper uses his ball handling to get open shots more and better than Sensabough did - Sensabough was a WF in high school and college, while Harper is a lead guard and sometimes PG. Very different positions and roles.
I know, maybe not so good a comp ... that said, I would point out Sensabough averaged 25 mpg and 16+ ppg as a true frosh for OSU. I see no reason why we should not hope for Harper to be a 15+ ppg scorer, in addition to his playmaking, for RU (yes, we are going to need that - but it seems reasonable to hope for that as well).
Similar body types, similar deceptive athleticism (more athleticism than one might initially think), some similar scoring skills at all 3 levels. Both used their bodies similarly to get shots.
But the comp is imperfect in several ways:
1) Harper was rated much higher out of high school than Sensabough - and for good reason, IMO.
2) Harper is much more than just a scorer - he is also a playmaker, and MUCH better court awareness and basketball IQ ... next level awareness (one of Sensabough's weaknesses, shown in his 1 year at OSU, was lack of court awareness, and a single-mindedness to go it alone offensively).
3. Harper uses his ball handling to get open shots more and better than Sensabough did - Sensabough was a WF in high school and college, while Harper is a lead guard and sometimes PG. Very different positions and roles.
I know, maybe not so good a comp ... that said, I would point out Sensabough averaged 25 mpg and 16+ ppg as a true frosh for OSU. I see no reason why we should not hope for Harper to be a 15+ ppg scorer, in addition to his playmaking, for RU (yes, we are going to need that - but it seems reasonable to hope for that as well).
Not terrible but for many of the reasons you point out I would lean towards Romeo Langford as the most recent comparison
Ah ... yes. Looked at his high school highlights (as I did with Sensabough) ... you are correct. Langford looks a little more explosive athletically than Harper (or Sensabough - one of the reasons I picked Sensabough, because athletically/build he looks more similar to Harper - all 3 6'5" to 6'6"). But Langford is clearly a guard, and Sensabough was a clearly a forward.
Langford was a 2nd Team All Big Ten as a freshman (his only college season), 1st Team All Frosh, averaged 34 mpg, 16.5 ppg ... but was not either a PG or a "lead" guard, but a pure 2G. He did only shoot 27% from 3, and 44% overall, 72% from FT. Hopefully Harper does a little better on 3-point shooting (not looking for him to be a 40% 3-point shooter, but 32-33% would be a big help). Langford was also a 5*, and also played in the McDonald's All American game. He was #5 recruit in the ESPN rankings, FYI - and ended up being the 14th pick in the NBA draft.
The hope is he can perform close to Cade Cunningham's season, and they do have similar strengths, both being big guards who can be the lead and like to dictate through craft, physicality. If he performs like Cade did, we could be on to big things as Cade was one of the best players in college basketball, leading a team without much returning depth and okay talent and questionable fits to the B12 championship and a top 4 seed.
Obviously, time will tell - soon enough - whether Harper can produce like Cade Cunningham, who is a rising, maybe already there, NBA star (last season: 22+ ppg, 7.5 ass/g ... even as a rookie, 17+ ppg, 5.6 ass/g), and in his 1 college season averaged 35 mpg, 20 ppg, 3.5 ass/g, 6 rpg, shot 40% from 3 ... listed anywhere from 6'6" to 6'8".
That 2020-2021 Okla St team ... interesting team, maybe:
21-9 overall, 11-7 in conference, 5th place in Big 12
1) 3 players averaged 30+ mpg: Cunningham, Avery Anderson (a supplemental scorer, averaging 12 ppg 3 straight years, including the year with Cunningham) and Isaac Likekele (who transferred to Ohio St for a 5th season) ... all 3 guards (Likelele a 6'5" passing, defense and rebounding guard, never averaged more than 11 ppg - that the year before Cunningham).
2) Cunningham and Likelele were the 2 leading rebounders for that team.
3) Their nominal starting Center/Big Man was a 6'9" soph, Kalib Boone, who only averaged 20 mpg, but just 2.4 rpg and 9.4 ppg ... as a Junior and Senior he averaged 11 ppg about, and 5 rpg - so not really a true rebounder or true center.
4) Their PF, essentially, was a guy named Matthew-Alexander Moncriefe, whose best season was as a freshman playing that year with Cunningham - 9 ppg, 5 rpg. He was 6'7" 215
5) Their other 4 primary players were 3 guards: Frosh 6'4" Rondell Walker, who averaged 25 mpg and 7.8 ppg - his best college season; SR 6'2" Bryce Williams (not the same as Nebraska's Brice Williams) who averaged 24 mpg and 7.3 ppg (about the same as his next, and least season); and SR 6'3" Fernand Flavors, a transfer from a team in the WAC who was a 3-point shooting specialist - he averaged 12 mpg and 3.4 ppg... plus a guard/forward reserve, 6'8" 200 pound Keylan Boone, a SO, who averaged 15 mpg, 4 ppg and 4 rpg.
6) The TEAM averaged 76.6 ppg, 56th in the country ... their defense gave up 72.7 ppg, 245th in the country. They were 45th in rebounding - 85th in offensive rebounding ... and their rebounding defense was poor: 232nd. They were 200th in 3 point FG%, but 23rd in FT% ... 79th in overall FG%.
By the way, that year the Big 12 was very good, as usual: Baylor was the national champion (29-2); Kansas, Okla St, Texas and WVU were all very good also. Okla St lost in the 2nd round of the NCAA that year - to an Oregon St team that was a much better defensive team than Okla St - who held Okla St to 70 points (28% FG, 28% 3-point FG, out rebounded 49-28). As a note, Okla St was 17-5 scoring 71 points or more, 4-4 scoring 70 points or less.
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So ... obviously, we have no idea how RU will do, but there are some notable differences, IMO - mostly to RU's BENEFIT:
1) To begin with, Harper will have a star of equal or even potentially superior ability playing alongside him, which Cunningham did NOT have - Ace Bailey. That should make an enormous difference.
2) J. Williams is sort of like Cunningham's supporting scorer Avery Anderson - except Williams will be the #3 scorer, not the #2 scorer ... thus RU should be better off.
3) The RU Center/Big Men Combo of Ogbole and Sommerville may not score as much as Okal St's combo of Boone and Moncriefe - but should rebound better and be better defenders. But because of Bailey, a bona fide 2nd star, they do not NEED to score as much.
4) RU has better 3 point FG% shooters to supplement Harper and Bailey. Likelele hit 44% from 3 - but only took 18 3's. Cunningham shot 40% on 155 3's (out of 245 total shots), but 3 other players who took 90-107 3 point FG attempts, only shot 32.5% combined (none better than 33%). Williams and Derkack (and Davis) are not great 3-point shooters. But Martini and Hayes ARE good, and both should shoot better than 35% from 3 for RU. Neither Bailey nor Harper seem likely to hit the 40% from 3 Cunningham did, but if both can hit over 30%, to go with Martini and Hayes, RU should have better overall 3 point FG shooting than Okla St. - especially since Martini and Hayes would be expected to take the most 3 pointers after Harper and Bailey.
5) RU should be a much better defensive team than Okla St. Other than Martini and Hayes, RU has a boat load of 6'4" to 6'10" athletic and good defense players - plus an electrifying defender in Davis.
6) Not sure this is good or bad: The Big Ten is not as top heavy as the Big 12 was Cunningham's season ... but is also potentially much deeper with better than average teams.
I believe RU should have at least 3 players average in double digits this season: Harper, Bailey and Williams - Bailey and Harper 14-15+ ppg. And should have another 3 players average 7-9 ish ppg (Martini, Acuff and 1 other TBD). And play at least 9 players at least 10 mpg ... making RU a deeper team than Okla St.
All speculative fun, only ... meaning only speculative ... but fun for me.
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Time to calm down Hawk jr, these posts are getting exhausting to read.
-Cade Cunningham is at the upper limit of freshman in college, he could put the team on his back and carry them to victories. Dylan and Ace both have that potential, but we will see how quickly they adapt, and whether we are running the best system for their respective skill sets.
-We, like most teams in college this year, are throwing a team out there with little experience playing with each other. They may come together quickly, or they may struggle all year.
-Pike has never had two high level one and done talents like this, it is a new experience for him. Maybe he will do great, maybe he will have trouble maximizing their skills. There were also deals made to get Ace and Dylan to commit in terms of how they are used and our style of play, we will see how all that works out.
I think rather than try to predict an outcome, it will be better just to appreciate their skills and enjoy the ride this year. The range of outcomes is very wide, it can be tough to win with freshman, but if they put it all together you could win a championship. I just would like to see them play up to their potential, and everything else will take care of itself.
I think at the very least, there's a path to where if Dylan plays at the upper level to which he can, we can be a very good team even with perhaps a lack of talent or fit at other spots. Stars matter a ton, and a player like Dylan elevates not just his own stats but everyone elses too. As you somewhat mentioned, pretty much everyone on that team had the best years of their careers that year, which goes contrary to some who have pushed that somehow cause we are led by freshmen that they cant elevate older players' game.
In reality Cades actually 6’6. I think Harper may actually be doing what KD did where he wants his height listed a bit lower so he can be the PG and not pushed to SG or SF. Anyways they’re about the same size and similar styles, Cades not overly athletic, I’d say maybe a bit quicker than Harper but Harpers got a bit more bulk to him. I think people are getting on Harper’s athleticism too much, he doesn’t have insane vertical or speed, but he is very strong already and a massive wingspan, so I think people underrate him athletically.
People who downplay Harper’s athleticism are comparing him to NBA players, who by and large are off the charts athletically. Harper is a better athlete than 99% of the college players he will go up against this year.
That's actually nowhere near the truth. Harper is a good athlete, but is not scouted as a top prospect in the same way Ace Bailey is. Ace is the one player who probably gets away with being the best athlete where Dylan is probably closest to a bigger version on Jalen Brunson.
Brunson is as fundamentally sound as any player in the NBA and gets to his "spots" to make shots and plays, better than 95% of guards in the NBA who are a step quicker or faster. Harper is also more of a combo guard who can play PG at the next level, but it's his ability to score at all 3 levels, that makes him elite. I think Dylan, especially coming off a knee tweak, is less likely to be an elite athlete....
The type of athlete that's 99% better than most college players, is a Jaden Ivey .....a Russell Westbrook.....even a Tyrese Maxey.....players who have 3 gears (fast, quick and explosive dunkers/finishers.....Dylan is not in the space as an athlete. Think Jalen Brunson when you see Harper.....Harper will need to improve his handle to truly be like Brunson, but that's what this year of college ball and playing against other great guards in the B1G will present to Harper (and Bailey).
Why don't you take it up with the people that posted that opinion instead of generalizing that everyone on this forum thinks the same way?
I think most people think they will share reps, which is a good thing despite your belief we should just be able to run Dylan harper pick and rolls all game with PJ Hayes and Martini out there and ignore any defense or additional ball handling concerns
Slightly wrong.
It's pick and rolls with Harper and Ace.
Hayes and Martini are standing on the weak side keeping defenders honest and providing room for Harper, Ace and Ogbole.
On the interview that Pike and Harper just did on WFAN, pike called Dylan his point guard.
