With all these portal transfers, its hard to know who the stars will be.
My 2 cents:
I know, I know ... Braden Smith is really outstanding. And he probably improved as much as any player in the league last season as a sophomore, versus the prior season. BUT ... player of the year? Maybe he will do so, but I have my doubts for the following reasons:
1) Let's not forget he is just 6'0" tall - and NOT lightning quick or a great leaper. He was terrific offensively last season - really good - very good from 3, deadly from mid-range on pull-up jumpers, and also in his ability to use screens (or the refusal of screens) to get to the rim. BUT ... he was only okay defensively (more on that in a moment) - though a very good rebounder.
2) Also ... how much of his performance (or for that matter everyone on that team) enhanced by the presence of the singular offensive and defensive force that was Zach Edey? Edey set so many of the screens that freed Smith, was the receiver of so many of Smith's assists, was the "clean-up" rim defender for so many of Purdue's perimeter defenders. How does Smith do without Edey there? He averaged 7.5 assists/game last year - and 4.4 the year before ... do not be surprised if he averages fewer than 5 assists per game again.
3) Smith did raise his 3-point FG% from 37% to 43% - much to his credit, of course - deadly, in fact. Oddly enough though, Smith's TWO POINT FG% dropped last season, from 48% to 44% - as his 2-point attempts INCREASED from 4 2 point tries per game to 7 2-point tries per game. And this season, if Purdue plays at the same pace, there is going to eb huge pressure on Smith to take even more shots, which could reduce his offensive efficiency even more. He did have a great Ass:TO ratio of 2.8: 7.5 to 2.7, vs up from 2.2 ratio as a freshman. But if his assists drop to 5 per game, with the same TO? Under 2.0 ratio.
4) I think Smith may score more - because Purdue will need him to (they lost not just Edey, but also Lance Jones and Gillis), but will not be as efficient offensively, will have a drop off in assists and may or may not have more turnovers. Yes, there is a lot of talent on that team, but NONE that have shown they are leading scorers - not even Smith.
I have no idea where to place Bailey or Harper on these lists, just hopes. After all, neither have played college ball yet.
Still, I would think several players who are on the pre-season Big Ten top 10 list seem likely to be better than Smith this year. Examples:
1) Bruce Thornton: Also short for a Big Ten Guard - but much stronger physically ... and last season averaged 16 ppg, shot 43% from the field (to Smith's 44%), did have his 3-point FG% drop from 37% as a frosh to 33% as a soph - but with more talent around him perhaps his efficiency improves (whereas Smith will have LESS talent around him). Thornton also only averaged 1.2 TO/game, to Smith's 2.7, and despite fewer assists (a function of not having Edey, IMO) had a whopping 4.0 ass/TO ratio - ridiculously good.
2) Garcia - well ... okay, Minnesota ... I guess that might disqualify him. But a high level multi-dimensional scorer and a solid rebounder at Stretch Forward.
3) Ballo, the transfer ... Dynamic post scorer and rebounder ... very, very efficient (65% plus FG%
Others in that 10: Osobor was a star post player - But at Utah State, not at a P 6 team ... Baldwin - I'd put Smith ahead of him ... Same with Barnhizer and Sandfort, until proven otherwise ... Harper, too (unproven).
I would not be surprised if someone NOT on this Top 10 list wins the Big Ten Player of the Year. And I would NOT be surprised if Smith does not finish 1st Team All Big Ten.
Sidebar: If I were defending Purdue, I would single coverage Smith at the 3-point line, make him drive and either pull up or go to the rim, never help except switching on the screen (or going through and above the screen), and do the normal defensive help rotation on his penetration (i.e. do not leave Colvin/Heide, etc. open on the perimeter). Force Smith to score in the lane at his height. You can't leave Smith open for 3 - but he does not have Edey to pass to - or Lance Jones - and does not have Edey to clean of the boards on misses. On offense, post up the smaller Smith - no Edey to help, high screens and drive on him - no Edey drop coverage off the screen to protect the mid-range shot or drive to the rim.