Fall/Winter 2018?
- Thread starter zebnatto
- Start date
Go 2-2 in St. John's, Miami, Wisconsin and SHU. A win against MSU isn't happening. Any other loss and we've given one away, despite the talk about Eastern Michigan.
Yeah, I'd probably take it. I'd ask for him to guarantee to answer several other questions though.
Don't be. This team is young and going to slip up. They will be better in February than in November. But be ready for some bumps in the road.
The reality is that for us to go 15-15 is most likely this scanario
1.) must take care of the seven non power 6 confrence opponents without a slip up
2.) split with St. John’s and Seton Hall
That is 8-2 out of Confrencce...
We need to go 7-13 in big ten play
Given that we went 5-16 last year (including the tournament)....it’s not far fetched...but certainly not a given
1.) must take care of the seven non power 6 confrence opponents without a slip up
2.) split with St. John’s and Seton Hall
That is 8-2 out of Confrencce...
We need to go 7-13 in big ten play
Given that we went 5-16 last year (including the tournament)....it’s not far fetched...but certainly not a given
Not very disappointed, just kinda. I guess you can say I am hoping for 8-4, not expecting it.
It might not be a thing of beauty this year, but I think the offense has to improve. Obviously there wont be Corey drawing all that attention but overall theres q lot more shooters on the squad now
My wish every year is for the team to exceed expectations, even slightly, in terms of wins.
This year I feel 15 or more wins will do that.
If we’re competitive in every game, as I expect we will be, it will be a fun year to be a fan.
This year I feel 15 or more wins will do that.
If we’re competitive in every game, as I expect we will be, it will be a fun year to be a fan.
Bottom line there is very little margin for error in achieving a winning season.Rutgers needs at least 8 wins out of the first 12 games and 7 league wins to reach 15 wins .Winning 7 league wins will be very difficult because Rutgers has such a poor road record against league opponents.
Definitely. Many have said the roster has a ton of talent. 7-5 would really take the excitement out of the season and set back any program momentum really early on. 6-6 would be unacceptable. Would not be good for recruiting going forward. It is absolutely CRUCIAL recruiting gets markedly better in the 2020 class if we want to see real progress.
"Talent" does not mean they're ready to WIN at the B1G level, especially early in the season when things are still coming together.
We only have five players returning who have played in the B1G -- Omoruyi, Baker, Thiam, Doorson, and Doucoure.
We have two more players who have played at the college level, but were in lower levels (either JUCO or mid-major), and we have no idea how they will acclimate to B1G play -- Carter and Kiss.
And we have four players who have never played in college at all (either true or redshirt freshman) -- Johnson, Harper, Mathis, and McConnell.
It's unrealistic to think that this inexperienced team "should" go 7-5, 8-4 or better in the first part of the season, and it just sets up a strawman for being "disappointed" with the "progress" made under Pike if we do worse.
Frankly, we should all be THRILLED if we go 7-5 in those 12 games. We will affirmatively be underdogs in five of those games (SJU, Miami, MSU, Wisky, and SHU), and there are one or two more that are -- at our current stage of development, and early in the season -- pick'em type games (EMU and possibly Fordham at Rose Hill Gymnasium). That's six or seven games right there that we could easily lose without it being an indictment on our "progress".
So I would take 7-5 in a heartbeat. That's basically 7-3 OOC, plus 0-2 in league against two of the top four B1G teams (MSU and Wisky).
In our five conference wins, including the tournament, and the win against SH, Sanders averaged 24 points a game with a low of 18 and a high of 30. He was far from a perfect player, but he had the ability to score against good competition.
I don’t perosnally feel the roster is as talented as people say so I myself will not be disappointed. But boy if we should be thrilled with 7-5 we’re not nearly as far along as people say. Hopefully we get to double digit wins this year if that’s the case. It will be tough to continue to recruit if we are that bad and the 2020 class has to be great in order for the program to jump out of the basement.
There is no excuse with the new facility not to recruit at a level of top 8 I confefence by average star rating in 2020. But single digit wins, 10-12 wins, boy that could kill what little momentum that’s building.
I'm not sure of your point here - it sounds like you're agreeing with my post that we're too young and inexperienced to make alot of noise early on, and I think your point about Sanders basically carrying us in our wins supports my point.
A 7-5 record in the first 12 games likely means the following:
Wins against FDU, Drexel, EMU, BU, Fordham, Columbia, and Maine.
Losses against SJU, Miami, MSU, Wisky and SHU -- all games in which we will be the underdog.
Basically this record means we didn't stub our toe against a supposedly "lesser" opponent, but it also means we didn't get an "upset".
To be candid, in writing this response and typing out what 7-5 would actually mean, I guess I overstated that we should be "thrilled" with 7-5. The better word is probably "content." "Thrilled" would be 8-4 or 9-3 with a couple of upset wins.
But NOT getting to 8-4 or 9-3 STILL doesn't mean that we should be disappointed, because with such a young and inexperienced team, and so many new players that are still going to be gelling early on, there should be hope that we will play better in the last 18 games of the regular season.
Well said. But we would really need to realize that development in order to get wins in conference. I don’t think we will be favored in many of those last 18 games either. At least early on. The thing to consider most is the impact to recruiting. Got to go to got to get a big 2020 class.
I think it is clear expectations need to come down. Expecting .500 with this roster and 8-4 out of the gate is crazy. It is very likely people will be disappointed.
Thu 11-01 A 264 (IV) East Carolina -5.4, 72-66 71 %
Fri 11-09 H 263 (IV) Fairleigh Dickinson -13.8, 80-66 90 %
Sun 11-11 H 244 (IV) Drexel -12.3, 77-65 88 %
Fri 11-16 H 58 (III) St. John's +0.7, 74-73 47 %
Mon 11-19 H 167 (III) Eastern Michigan -7.5, 69-61 79 %
Fri 11-23 H 220 (IV) Boston University -10.7, 74-63 86 %
Wed 11-28 A 10 (I) Miami FL +15, 78-63 8 %
Fri 11-30 H 8 (I) • Michigan St. +7.3, 74-67 23 %
Mon 12-03 A 26 (I) • Wisconsin +10.9, 72-61 13 %
Sat 12-08 A 272 (IV) Fordham -5.4, 67-61 72 %
Sat 12-15 A 21 (I) Seton Hall +12.9, 78-65 11 %
Sat 12-22 H 257 (IV) Columbia -13.8, 81-68 89 %
Sat 12-29 H 319 (IV) Maine -17.1, 79-62 94 %
Sat 1-05 H 40 (II) • Maryland +2.4, 71-68 40 %
Wed 1-09 H 41 (II) • Ohio St. +2.1, 70-68 41 %
Sat 1-12 A 75 (III) • Minnesota +6.7, 76-69 26 %
Tue 1-15 A 44 (I) • Purdue +9.7, 74-64 16 %
Fri 1-18 H 47 (II) • Northwestern +1.7, 68-67 43 %
Mon 1-21 H 36 (II) • Nebraska +2.7, 72-69 39 %
Sat 1-26 A 53 (I) • Penn St. +9, 73-64 18 %
Wed 1-30 H 25 (II) • Indiana +4, 73-69 34 %
Sat 2-02 A 41 (I) • Ohio St. +9.9, 74-64 16 %
Tue 2-05 H 20 (I) • Michigan +4.6, 69-65 31 %
Sat 2-09 A 45 (I) • Illinois +10.4, 80-69 17 %
Wed 2-13 A 47 (I) • Northwestern +9.2, 72-63 17 %
Sat 2-16 H 39 (II) • Iowa +2.8, 77-74 40 %
Wed 2-20 A 8 (I) • Michigan St. +15.2, 78-63 8 %
Sun 2-24 H 75 (III) • Minnesota -1.4, 73-72 56 %
Sat 3-02 A 39 (I) • Iowa +11.2, 81-70 15 %
Wed 3-06 H 53 (II) • Penn St. +1.3, 69-68 45 %
Sun 3-10 A 25 (I) • Indiana +11.9, 77-65 13 %
Projected Record: 13-18 (6-14)
Thu 11-01 A 264 (IV) East Carolina -5.4, 72-66 71 %
Fri 11-09 H 263 (IV) Fairleigh Dickinson -13.8, 80-66 90 %
Sun 11-11 H 244 (IV) Drexel -12.3, 77-65 88 %
Fri 11-16 H 58 (III) St. John's +0.7, 74-73 47 %
Mon 11-19 H 167 (III) Eastern Michigan -7.5, 69-61 79 %
Fri 11-23 H 220 (IV) Boston University -10.7, 74-63 86 %
Wed 11-28 A 10 (I) Miami FL +15, 78-63 8 %
Fri 11-30 H 8 (I) • Michigan St. +7.3, 74-67 23 %
Mon 12-03 A 26 (I) • Wisconsin +10.9, 72-61 13 %
Sat 12-08 A 272 (IV) Fordham -5.4, 67-61 72 %
Sat 12-15 A 21 (I) Seton Hall +12.9, 78-65 11 %
Sat 12-22 H 257 (IV) Columbia -13.8, 81-68 89 %
Sat 12-29 H 319 (IV) Maine -17.1, 79-62 94 %
Sat 1-05 H 40 (II) • Maryland +2.4, 71-68 40 %
Wed 1-09 H 41 (II) • Ohio St. +2.1, 70-68 41 %
Sat 1-12 A 75 (III) • Minnesota +6.7, 76-69 26 %
Tue 1-15 A 44 (I) • Purdue +9.7, 74-64 16 %
Fri 1-18 H 47 (II) • Northwestern +1.7, 68-67 43 %
Mon 1-21 H 36 (II) • Nebraska +2.7, 72-69 39 %
Sat 1-26 A 53 (I) • Penn St. +9, 73-64 18 %
Wed 1-30 H 25 (II) • Indiana +4, 73-69 34 %
Sat 2-02 A 41 (I) • Ohio St. +9.9, 74-64 16 %
Tue 2-05 H 20 (I) • Michigan +4.6, 69-65 31 %
Sat 2-09 A 45 (I) • Illinois +10.4, 80-69 17 %
Wed 2-13 A 47 (I) • Northwestern +9.2, 72-63 17 %
Sat 2-16 H 39 (II) • Iowa +2.8, 77-74 40 %
Wed 2-20 A 8 (I) • Michigan St. +15.2, 78-63 8 %
Sun 2-24 H 75 (III) • Minnesota -1.4, 73-72 56 %
Sat 3-02 A 39 (I) • Iowa +11.2, 81-70 15 %
Wed 3-06 H 53 (II) • Penn St. +1.3, 69-68 45 %
Sun 3-10 A 25 (I) • Indiana +11.9, 77-65 13 %
Projected Record: 13-18 (6-14)
Actually not sure where they get that 1st game. East carolina isn't on the schedule.
That moves us to 12.15 wins and 17.85 losses overall (12-18)
Exactly 7-5 in our 1st 12.
That moves us to 12.15 wins and 17.85 losses overall (12-18)
Exactly 7-5 in our 1st 12.
FIG, where would you put us if we were to EXCEED these statistical projections of wins and losses?
Some things that cannot be accounted for in these statistical models would include:
Better team chemistry over last year
Better passing, leading to better shot selection
Better shooting percentage
Better depth = less drop-off from bench players
Better depth = sustained intensity defensively
Pike’s 3rd year preparing against B1G coaches
I suspect the statistical models will be mostly accurate, but I believe we will exceed those statistical projections of wins by 2 or 3 games.
Some things that cannot be accounted for in these statistical models would include:
Better team chemistry over last year
Better passing, leading to better shot selection
Better shooting percentage
Better depth = less drop-off from bench players
Better depth = sustained intensity defensively
Pike’s 3rd year preparing against B1G coaches
I suspect the statistical models will be mostly accurate, but I believe we will exceed those statistical projections of wins by 2 or 3 games.
Corey kind of took over at the end. We need to wait for our new chemistry to form that Geo will probably oversee.
You are misquoting me. :smiley:
It is crazy TO EXPECT to be 8-4.
That is a lot different than saying it would be crazy to be 8-4.
BillyC,
What you post is actually my expectation. I think we will be much improved offensively. I think we will take a step back defensively.
What you post is actually my expectation. I think we will be much improved offensively. I think we will take a step back defensively.
Here is a question.
How many games will be within 4 points with 1:30 to go?
What would be our expected winning percentage in those games?
That could be a 2-3 game swing right there. There is a randomness in some of this, but there is something to a youthful team.
How many games will be within 4 points with 1:30 to go?
What would be our expected winning percentage in those games?
That could be a 2-3 game swing right there. There is a randomness in some of this, but there is something to a youthful team.
You said this: "Expecting .500 with this roster and 8-4 out of the gate is crazy." I think you predicted 7-5. Your latter statement ("That is a lot different than saying it would be crazy to be 8-4.") is semantically meaningless unless you clarify. You're prediction is 7-5 but predicting 8-4 is crazy?
