In the NBA, 3 point percentage on WIDE OPEN 3 pointers is less than 40%. See chart in this post (https://www.thestrick.land/strick/a...point-defense-in-nba-advanced-stats-analytics) numbers range from 38% to 39.1% depending on the season. I think we will all hopefully stipulate that:
(1) Michigan State's shooters are worse on average than NBA shooters and
(2) Not all of Michigan State's 3-point attempts were wide open.
NONETHELESS, let's pretend our defense was SO BAD that they would be expected to shoot 40% from three. They shot 22 threes, 40% of 22 is 8.8. They actually made 12. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, 9.6 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.
But wait, there's more. I did not notice anything particularly terrible about our own three point looks tonight (8 of the 17 being from Cam, who is 40% for his career) but let's just pretend they were so bad that we would only make 20% of them in the long run. We shot 17, 20% of 17 is 3.4, we actually made 2. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, another 4.2 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.
That is, overall, AT A MINIMUM AND USING VERY CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS, 13.8 points gained by Michigan State due to pure random chance. Michigan State won by 13.
They will try to tell you we were outhustled.
They will try to tell you we were outcoached.
They will try to tell you there is some magic about the Breslin Center
They will try to tell you Michigan State is the better team.
Don't let them. You are smarter than that.
(1) Michigan State's shooters are worse on average than NBA shooters and
(2) Not all of Michigan State's 3-point attempts were wide open.
NONETHELESS, let's pretend our defense was SO BAD that they would be expected to shoot 40% from three. They shot 22 threes, 40% of 22 is 8.8. They actually made 12. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, 9.6 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.
But wait, there's more. I did not notice anything particularly terrible about our own three point looks tonight (8 of the 17 being from Cam, who is 40% for his career) but let's just pretend they were so bad that we would only make 20% of them in the long run. We shot 17, 20% of 17 is 3.4, we actually made 2. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, another 4.2 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.
That is, overall, AT A MINIMUM AND USING VERY CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS, 13.8 points gained by Michigan State due to pure random chance. Michigan State won by 13.
They will try to tell you we were outhustled.
They will try to tell you we were outcoached.
They will try to tell you there is some magic about the Breslin Center
They will try to tell you Michigan State is the better team.
Don't let them. You are smarter than that.