For anyone who doesn't want to torpedo their acting career by taking an inadvisable role tonight (also 3 point shooting)

[fluoxetine]

In the NBA, 3 point percentage on WIDE OPEN 3 pointers is less than 40%. See chart in this post (https://www.thestrick.land/strick/a...point-defense-in-nba-advanced-stats-analytics) numbers range from 38% to 39.1% depending on the season. I think we will all hopefully stipulate that:

(1) Michigan State's shooters are worse on average than NBA shooters and
(2) Not all of Michigan State's 3-point attempts were wide open.

NONETHELESS, let's pretend our defense was SO BAD that they would be expected to shoot 40% from three. They shot 22 threes, 40% of 22 is 8.8. They actually made 12. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, 9.6 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.

But wait, there's more. I did not notice anything particularly terrible about our own three point looks tonight (8 of the 17 being from Cam, who is 40% for his career) but let's just pretend they were so bad that we would only make 20% of them in the long run. We shot 17, 20% of 17 is 3.4, we actually made 2. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, another 4.2 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.

That is, overall, AT A MINIMUM AND USING VERY CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS, 13.8 points gained by Michigan State due to pure random chance. Michigan State won by 13.

They will try to tell you we were outhustled.
They will try to tell you we were outcoached.
They will try to tell you there is some magic about the Breslin Center
They will try to tell you Michigan State is the better team.

Don't let them. You are smarter than that.

 

[GORU2014]

I’m counting this and OSU as wins now

 

[bethlehemfan]

In the NBA, 3 point percentage on WIDE OPEN 3 pointers is less than 40%. See chart in this post (https://www.thestrick.land/strick/a...point-defense-in-nba-advanced-stats-analytics) numbers range from 38% to 39.1% depending on the season. I think we will all hopefully stipulate that:

(1) Michigan State's shooters are worse on average than NBA shooters and
(2) Not all of Michigan State's 3-point attempts were wide open.

NONETHELESS, let's pretend our defense was SO BAD that they would be expected to shoot 40% from three. They shot 22 threes, 40% of 22 is 8.8. They actually made 12. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, 9.6 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.

But wait, there's more. I did not notice anything particularly terrible about our own three point looks tonight (8 of the 17 being from Cam, who is 40% for his career) but let's just pretend they were so bad that we would only make 20% of them in the long run. We shot 17, 20% of 17 is 3.4, we actually made 2. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, another 4.2 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.

That is, overall, AT A MINIMUM AND USING VERY CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS, 13.8 points gained by Michigan State due to pure random chance. Michigan State won by 13.

They will try to tell you we were outhustled.
They will try to tell you we were outcoached.
They will try to tell you there is some magic about the Breslin Center
They will try to tell you Michigan State is the better team.

Don't let them. You are smarter than that.

You are a bright boy. Tard is not a good expression

 

[Scangg]

Hope everyone reads and underatands this concept

 

[bac2therac]

Rutgers outplayed Michigan State so there is that

 

[ScarletKid2008]

It did feel like one of those nights . One team was shooting lights out. And the other wasn’t. Honestly , we did a lot of other great things just to keep the game competitive. Whooped them on the offensive glass. But an average team gets their doors blown off most nights when shooting percentages are that wide of a difference

 

[fluoxetine]

You are a bright boy. Tard is not a good expression

Well it's a movie reference but I can see the argument

 

[bethlehemfan]

Well it's a movie reference but I can see the argument

Well I need to look into that but still cmon man

 

[fluoxetine]

Well I need to look into that but still cmon man

(Tropic Thunder)

 

[Scangg]

Well I need to look into that but still cmon man

The actor who says it is also in blackface. It's not a very PC movie lol. Prob best to change thread title though 🤷‍♂️

 

[fluoxetine]

The actor who says it is also in blackface. It's not a very PC movie lol. Prob best to change thread title though 🤷‍♂️

Done

 

[cm_13]

Well it's a movie reference but I can see the argument

Good adjustment on the thread title.

 

[cm_13]

Well I need to look into that but still cmon man

 

[kcg88]

Last five opponents shot 42% from 3 against us. Regression isn't guaranteed... but come on.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

In the NBA, 3 point percentage on WIDE OPEN 3 pointers is less than 40%. See chart in this post (https://www.thestrick.land/strick/a...point-defense-in-nba-advanced-stats-analytics) numbers range from 38% to 39.1% depending on the season. I think we will all hopefully stipulate that:

(1) Michigan State's shooters are worse on average than NBA shooters and
(2) Not all of Michigan State's 3-point attempts were wide open.

NONETHELESS, let's pretend our defense was SO BAD that they would be expected to shoot 40% from three. They shot 22 threes, 40% of 22 is 8.8. They actually made 12. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, 9.6 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.

But wait, there's more. I did not notice anything particularly terrible about our own three point looks tonight (8 of the 17 being from Cam, who is 40% for his career) but let's just pretend they were so bad that we would only make 20% of them in the long run. We shot 17, 20% of 17 is 3.4, we actually made 2. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, another 4.2 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.

That is, overall, AT A MINIMUM AND USING VERY CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS, 13.8 points gained by Michigan State due to pure random chance. Michigan State won by 13.

They will try to tell you we were outhustled.
They will try to tell you we were outcoached.
They will try to tell you there is some magic about the Breslin Center
They will try to tell you Michigan State is the better team.

Don't let them. You are smarter than that.

The college 3 pointer is shorter and would be hit at a much higher percentage by NBA players. It is generally a bad idea to give good shooters open 3s, usually ends in tears.

 

[fluoxetine]

The college 3 pointer is shorter and would be hit at a much higher percentage by NBA players.

Sure. But the college 3 point percentage is lower than the NBA 3 point percentage. So I see no reason to think college players would hit wide open college three pointers any more than NBA players would hit wide open NBA three pointers.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

Sure. But the college 3 point percentage is lower than the NBA 3 point percentage. So I see no reason to think college players would hit wide open college three pointers any more than NBA players would hit wide open NBA three pointers.

Michigan State shoots almost 37% for all 3s this year. You give them a bunch of open shots at home and you should expect them to shot a fair amount above that.

 

[fluoxetine]

Michigan State shoots almost 37% for all 3s this year. You give them a bunch of open shots at home and you should expect them to shot a fair amount above that.

Well, not really. If you give them a lot of open shots you should expect them to shoot like 37% but on a high volume of 3s.

 

[Scangg]

What percent of 3's do people think are contested bad shots?

 

[ScarletDave]

Iowa hit 12 threes against us, OSU 11, and now MSU hit 12. We lost 2 of the 3 and the other went to OT. We have to find a way to play our tough D without giving wide open kick out 3s. Teams are starting to figure it out

 

[KnightLife1994]

The entire game it felt like we were beating them and better than them but the score was not reflective of that. They didnt do anything really that good (except shoot threes but they wont do that again all year)

 

[fluoxetine]

Iowa hit 12 threes against us, OSU 11, and now MSU hit 12. We lost 2 of the 3 and the other went to OT. We have to find a way to play our tough D without giving wide open kick out 3s. Teams are starting to figure it out

This is not gonna happen. The open threes are being given up "willingly" (that is, the defensive strategy focuses on other things and if the other team executes well enough they are going to get some open threes). If someone shoots 55% on them they're probably just going to win. Pike is not changing the defensive philosophy that has worked great just because a couple teams in a row get hot.

 

[RUJMM78]

The fundamental issue is that most opponents make more 3 point shots than Rutgers.The shot has more value on the score board and its the fastest way to catch up at crunch time.Rutgers is mired on offense making only 65 points a game because of the lack of consistent 3 point shooting.With the current roster its doubtful that the stats will change in Rutgers favor .

 

[mildone]

Don't let them. You are smarter than that.

Well... it not smarter, we're at least a bit better informed than that, now. Thanks to your post.

So, thanks for posting. 🙂

 

[mildone]

Hope everyone reads and underatands this concept

I read the concept. But I confess I don't know how, or what, to do for that second thing you said we ought to do. 😉

 

[AZBlues]

Well, not really. If you give them a lot of open shots you should expect them to shoot like 37% but on a high volume of 3s.

It depends on which players are taking the 3 point shots. Three players on MSU are shooting better than 41% from 3 on the season, and that includes both open and covered shots. In games that they get more open looks in, I'd expect them to shoot better than their season average.

 

[fluoxetine]

It depends on which players are taking the 3 point shots. Three players on MSU are shooting better than 41% from 3 on the season, and that includes both open and covered shots. In games that they get more open looks in, I'd expect them to shoot better than their season average.

I mean, sure, do a weighted average by who gets the looks, agreed.

I'd take the under on anyone shooting 41% so far this season continuing at that clip though. But yes all three of those guys are ~40% career so if you give them looks then they might shoot them at 40, maybe even I don't know 42% if they are really good looks. Not 55% though.

 

[Eagleton96]

They hit a ridiculous high percentage, and we had a very cold shooting night. And we aren't good enough vs. good teams to overcome that. Anyone with a brain who retains any information from year to year, and that has been following college basketball for at least a few years, knows that most teams win at least one game and lose at least one game because of this every year. No real news here. We weren't going to win every game this year, and games like this are the reason why.

 

[Scangg]

The one issue I do have with our defense is sometimes we overhelp in suboptimal situations. Don't leave high percentage 3 point shooters to help. Make them make contested drives.

Paul's defense has improved immensely over the years but he is someone that falls victim to this