GAME 19 MICHIGAN STATE: Spanked

[bac2therac]

Ugly with a capital U. The team's performance isnt even worthy of a recap behind a paragraph or so. Thats how abysmal it was across the board.

RU got out to a 14-5 lead and then was outscored 65-43 the rest of the way. Do not really get fooled, RU was done just 6 with about 8 to go and then the floodgates opened. 6 points felt like 20 and RU never showed they were serious enough to do anything to change the trajectory of the game. Examples were senseless turnovers by Paul and Caleb. Caleb trying to actually run the length of the court trying to play hero after he made a mistake on the other end. Missed assignment after missed assignment on the perimeter leading to wide open 3s by the Spartains. Odd lineup around the 7 minute mark for a two minute stretch when the game was only 6-8 points. Of course Cam couldnt hit the broad side of a barn tonight and Sparty was hitting at a better clip than normal, it wasnt just they made shots and RU didnt. When RU had the chances to do things to seriously get back in the game they did not. Blame all around, even Cliff would had nice numbers 12 and 12 was outplayed by the big white guy. Paul had some nice moves that got RU close then disappeared. Mag was not a factor on either end. Hyatt was brutal. Did not seem like Pike made any adjustments for those open looks by Sparty. The needle was lost long before the final minutes.

Credit Michigan State...tough loss to Purdue, not many days rest and without one of their top starters. They didnt make excuses. They responded. Izzo had them engaged, keyed on Cam early and got him frustrated. Spartans stuck to their task even while they were letting a small window open for Rutgers and then just blew the doors down late over the fading Knights. Michigan State is top 5 in this league if not top 3. Not flashy but when they are on like they were tonight its going to take an effort that just was not there to beat them at the Breslin Center. Really hate the idea of playing them at MSG rather than the RAC but it is what it is.

Not the end of the world but somewhat of a reminder of how limited we are offensively and if we do not play very good defense these games are not going to go our way. Someone said after Temple well we arent going to shoot this poorly again...um yes it can happen and it can happen again. It was not just Cam..it was Hyatt, Mag, Cliff, Caleb. The boxscore is brutal. No sense revisiting. There is a blueprint to win and we didnt follow it. Not going to win them all so big picture not a big deal....as long as we beat Penn State. Not sure anything can be learned from the game tape. By winning at Northwestern and Ohio State, it took pressure off this game being a must win. You move on by beating Penn State at home. Very solid program that has given RU trouble but quite frankly its at home, RU needs to win this game and get back to its bread and butter. Losing happens, its making sure you dont string losses together. A trip to Iowa looms after that so I would say IMO you have to beat Penn State to keep this thing moving and take pressure off of winning on the road in this league

 

[Plum Street]

Balls to the wall against Penn state

 

[ImBadRU]

Well at least ur allowed to be critical. Everyone else who tries is called a bunch of nasty names.

 

[kcg88]

Last five opponents have shot 42% from three and we went 3-2. Let's see how we do when we get a five-game stretch where they shoot 33%.

 

[bac2therac]

Well at least ur allowed to be critical. Everyone else who tries is called a bunch of nasty names.

if that happens, just stand your ground, fans are allowed to voice opinions on a night where the team looked horrendous across the board.

 

[bac2therac]

Last five opponents have shot 42% from three and we went 3-2. Let's see how we do when we get a five-game stretch where they shoot 33%.

well PSU and Iowa are a problem from 3

 

[Degaz-RU]

Down 43-41 with 14 minutes to go, Paul throws the ball right into the outstretched hands of Akin, MSU gets a quick runout to go up 45-41 and thing just got worse and worse.

We’re just not going to beat ANYBODY going 2-17 from 3-Pt range.

I’m actually not THAT upset. This is what we are, and we’re going to have really bad offensive games.

This is life on the road in the Big Ten.

 

[G- RUnit]

well PSU and Iowa are a problem from 3

That’s what scares me.

 

[bethlehemfan]

Need to play well against Penn state. The stupid lazy passes upset me the most. D was bad late but I think the effort was pretty good until things got loose at then end.

 

[jonS]

Ugly with a capital U. The team's performance isnt even worthy of a recap behind a paragraph or so. Thats how abysmal it was across the board.

RU got out to a 14-5 lead and then was outscored 65-43 the rest of the way. Do not really get fooled, RU was done just 6 with about 8 to go and then the floodgates opened. 6 points felt like 20 and RU never showed they were serious enough to do anything to change the trajectory of the game. Examples were senseless turnovers by Paul and Caleb. Caleb trying to actually run the length of the court trying to play hero after he made a mistake on the other end. Missed assignment after missed assignment on the perimeter leading to wide open 3s by the Spartains. Odd lineup around the 7 minute mark for a two minute stretch when the game was only 6-8 points. Of course Cam couldnt hit the broad side of a barn tonight and Sparty was hitting at a better clip than normal, it wasnt just they made shots and RU didnt. When RU had the chances to do things to seriously get back in the game they did not. Blame all around, even Cliff would had nice numbers 12 and 12 was outplayed by the big white guy. Paul had some nice moves that got RU close then disappeared. Mag was not a factor on either end. Hyatt was brutal. Did not seem like Pike made any adjustments for those open looks by Sparty. The needle was lost long before the final minutes.

Credit Michigan State...tough loss to Purdue, not many days rest and without one of their top starters. They didnt make excuses. They responded. Izzo had them engaged, keyed on Cam early and got him frustrated. Spartans stuck to their task even while they were letting a small window open for Rutgers and then just blew the doors down late over the fading Knights. Michigan State is top 5 in this league if not top 3. Not flashy but when they are on like they were tonight its going to take an effort that just was not there to beat them at the Breslin Center. Really hate the idea of playing them at MSG rather than the RAC but it is what it is.

Not the end of the world but somewhat of a reminder of how limited we are offensively and if we do not play very good defense these games are not going to go our way. Someone said after Temple well we arent going to shoot this poorly again...um yes it can happen and it can happen again. It was not just Cam..it was Hyatt, Mag, Cliff, Caleb. The boxscore is brutal. No sense revisiting. There is a blueprint to win and we didnt follow it. Not going to win them all so big picture not a big deal....as long as we beat Penn State. Not sure anything can be learned from the game tape. By winning at Northwestern and Ohio State, it took pressure off this game being a must win. You move on by beating Penn State at home. Very solid program that has given RU trouble but quite frankly its at home, RU needs to win this game and get back to its bread and butter. Losing happens, its making sure you dont string losses together. A trip to Iowa looms after that so I would say IMO you have to beat Penn State to keep this thing moving and take pressure off of winning on the road in this league

I thought the momentum shifted with Rutgers leading 14-5 when Pike substituted and Reiber replaced Cliff. and Mag went to the bench. Reiber just doesn't rebound and lacks physicality and it hurt Rutgers tonight. From that point on MSU started hitting from outside. I don't understand why Wolf isn't getting some of Dean's minutes.

 

[bac2therac]

Down 43-41 with 14 minutes to go, Paul throws the ball right into the outstretched hands of Akin, MSU gets a quick runout to go up 45-41 and thing just got worse and worse.

We’re just not going to beat ANYBODY going 2-17 from 3-Pt range.

I’m actually not THAT upset. This is what we are, and we’re going to have really bad offensive games.

This is life on the road in the Big Ten.

that play was huge but then later..we were down 6 after Mag hit jumper but we didnt play D as Sparty pushed the ball up and after that it was never under 7

 

[RUJMM78]

This game was just another example to show the small margin for error when the offense shoots bricks most of the game.

 

[bac2therac]

I thought the momentum shifted with Rutgers leading 14-5 when Pike substituted and Reiber replaced Cliff. and Mag went to the bench. Reiber just doesn't rebound and lacks physicality and it hurt Rutgers tonight. I don't understand why Wolf isn't getting some of Dean's minutes.

fair point....i think it was a big mistake. Give Cliff a breather but why take Mag out. Hyatt has had two dreadful games in a row. I know it changed momentum quick but not sure eventually the same game would have unfolded eventually.

 

[G- RUnit]

Have to better than 2-17 from three.
Can’t let MSU shoot 50% from three.
Up 14/5 be flexible and hold off on the substitutions. Can wait until 12 or 8 minute mark.
Cliff ended up with nice numbers but has to make bunnies and play much better D.
Caleb and Paul have to stop with the horrible turnovers.
Hyatt has to stop the Ofers. Mag disappeared too.
Hope it’s just a bad day but we have to improve on offense.
Still drives me absolutely nuts we don’t get them at home and have to play at Garden.

 

[RUskoolie]

I didn't see a spanking bac.

MSU shot the lights out from 3 and Cam was cold.

That's basically the game. MSU is not a team I am too worried about. Everything went their way tonight. That's the game sometimes.

 

[Scangg]

This was a close game with a few minutes left until the very end when they pulled away.... despite essentially the entire roster having a bad game and shooting a completely horrendous game overall, especially from 3

MSU has an excellent game shooting on the other hand, well above their average

Despite our terrible shooting and their awesome shooting it was a very close game with what 4 min left?

Really shows how we can compete even on our worst worst worst night

 

[fluoxetine]

In the NBA, 3 point percentage on WIDE OPEN 3 pointers is less than 40%. See chart in this post (https://www.thestrick.land/strick/a...point-defense-in-nba-advanced-stats-analytics) numbers range from 38% to 39.1% depending on the season. I think we will all hopefully stipulate that:

(1) Michigan State's shooters are worse on average than NBA shooters and
(2) Not all of Michigan State's 3-point attempts were wide open.

NONETHELESS, let's pretend our defense was SO BAD that they would be expected to shoot 40% from three. They shot 22 threes, 40% of 22 is 8.8. They actually made 12. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, 9.6 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.

But wait, there's more. I did not notice anything particularly terrible about our own three point looks tonight (8 of the 17 being from Cam, who is 40% for his career) but let's just pretend they were so bad that we would only make 20% of them in the long run. We shot 17, 20% of 17 is 3.4, we actually made 2. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, another 4.2 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.

That is, overall, AT A MINIMUM AND USING VERY CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS, 13.8 points gained by Michigan State due to pure random chance. Michigan State won by 13.

They will try to tell you we were outhustled.
They will try to tell you we were outcoached.
They will try to tell you there is some magic about the Breslin Center
They will try to tell you Michigan State is the better team.

Don't let them. You are smarter than that.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Look at MSU and Purdue against us. Both coaches used the bench and tested starters.

Our bench was beyond awful again

Pike has a decision to make…..run starters in the ground so we make the NCAAs

OR

Play the bench and risk not making the NCAAs, but gives us a better chance to go REAL far if we do

 

[hinson32]

I thought the momentum shifted with Rutgers leading 14-5 when Pike substituted and Reiber replaced Cliff. and Mag went to the bench. Reiber just doesn't rebound and lacks physicality and it hurt Rutgers tonight. From that point on MSU started hitting from outside. I don't understand why Wolf isn't getting some of Dean's minutes.

That is an easy one to answer. Wolf fouls too much to be trusted. He averages 8 fouls per 40 minutes. You have to earn your minutes by playing defense. Pike does not trust him right now.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Every game I try and normalize shooting and then assess. Yes MSU had too many good looks and we should assume they make a better percentage, but still MSU had a little of the fools gold. Same fools gold we had when we went 10-17 in a win

 

[Scangg]

In the NBA, 3 point percentage on WIDE OPEN 3 pointers is less than 40%. See chart in this post (https://www.thestrick.land/strick/a...point-defense-in-nba-advanced-stats-analytics) numbers range from 38% to 39.1% depending on the season. I think we will all hopefully stipulate that:

(1) Michigan State's shooters are worse on average than NBA shooters and
(2) Not all of Michigan State's 3-point attempts were wide open.

NONETHELESS, let's pretend our defense was SO BAD that they would be expected to shoot 40% from three. They shot 22 threes, 40% of 22 is 8.8. They actually made 12. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, 9.6 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.

But wait, there's more. I did not notice anything particularly terrible about our own three point looks tonight (8 of the 17 being from Cam, who is 40% for his career) but let's just pretend they were so bad that we would only make 20% of them in the long run. We shot 17, 20% of 17 is 3.4, we actually made 2. This is, AT AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, another 4.2 points gained by Michigan State by pure random chance.

That is, overall, AT A MINIMUM AND USING VERY CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS, 13.8 points gained by Michigan State due to pure random chance. Michigan State won by 13.

They will try to tell you we were outhustled.
They will try to tell you we were outcoached.
They will try to tell you there is some magic about the Breslin Center
They will try to tell you Michigan State is the better team.

Don't let them. You are smarter than that.

 

[bethlehemfan]

This game was just another example to show the small margin for error when the offense shoots bricks most of the game.

Haha yea duh. 2-16 from three there ia little margin. Water is wet.

 

[bac2therac]

yup shooting isnt part of the game anymore, we played our regular elite defense and Sparty was lucky that we didnt make shots

i give up

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Not many teams are winning on the road shooting 2-16. Maybe Houston could get away with it playing at the DREGs of the American conference

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

yup shooting isnt part of the game anymore, we played our regular elite defense and Sparty was lucky that we didnt make shots

i give up

It is somewhere in between. They had more open looks than any game all year

 

[fluoxetine]

yup shooting isnt part of the game anymore, we played our regular elite defense and Sparty was lucky that we didnt make shots

i give up

Shooting is obviously part of the game and this is why I hesitate to use the word luck. If someone makes 10 threes in a row that is not "luck" exactly. But it's not the fault of the defender either and it's certainly not something he'll be able to repeat.

So yes "we played our regular elite defense and Sparty was lucky that we didnt make shots" is basically correct. Again if you give Sparty 40% of their 3s (which again is more than the NBA percentage on wide open shots) they score 60 points. That is, basically, our normal defense.

 

[bac2therac]

oh I agree, that wasnt a Rutgers defense tonight...not as bad as vs Iowa but they are not beating Sparty on the road playing that D

 

[fluoxetine]

oh I agree, that wasnt a Rutgers defense tonight...not as bad as vs Iowa but they are not beating Sparty on the road playing that D

lol

 

[bethlehemfan]

yup shooting isnt part of the game anymore, we played our regular elite defense and Sparty was lucky that we didnt make shots

i give up

Bac 2-17 from 3 basically negates everything. Say what you want with that kind of shooting you ain’t winning. And these weren’t desperation shots. They were open looks.

 

[bac2therac]

i guess the sarcasm is missed

 

[fluoxetine]

I'm pretty sure MSU could come out and go like 30 for 30 from three and bac would be like, well yeah, a lot of them were kinda open, that's just bad defense like of course we left them open they will shoot 100%.

It's just a same thing on a smaller scale.

 

[bac2therac]

again, Rutgers outplayed Michigan State, if we made shots we would have won

 

[bethlehemfan]

again, Rutgers outplayed Michigan State, if we made shots we would have won

Correct

 

[new jersey1]

They obviously shot great from three, but I think our D gave them too many good looks. That has to improve v. PSU. On the defensive end, it looked like we were slow to react to some loose balls that in other games we would gobble up, fast break off and score. In that sense, it looked like we lacked our normal energy. On the other hand, we rebounded well especially on the offensive end, but need to capitalize on those rebounds at a higher clip. Obviously, the three point shooting disparity attributable in part to our soft perimeter D, decided the game. Considering the three point disparity, it’s amazing we only lost by thirteen.

 

[bac2therac]

Bac 2-17 from 3 basically negates everything. Say what you want with that kind of shooting you ain’t winning. And these weren’t desperation shots. They were open looks.

we played like shit across the board, i dont know why people just cannot accept that. Look it happens, Im not concerned or broken up over it but im not going to sit here and say yeah we only lost because we didnt hit shots, no shit sherlock, you can say that for every game....

 

[fluoxetine]

again, Rutgers outplayed Michigan State, if we made shots we would have won

You say this sarcastically, as if it's wrong, but it's right.

Again, the shooting of the shots is part of the game, so in that sense we were "outplayed" in the same way we get outplayed if we miss free throws or whatever but it's not something that's directly in your control in the moment.

 

[fluoxetine]

we played like shit across the board, i dont know why people just cannot accept that. Look it happens, Im not concerned or broken up over it but im not going to sit here and say yeah we only lost because we didnt hit shots, no shit sherlock, you can say that for every game....

Because it's obviously and demonstrably wrong, and you are wrong, and you post the same tired crap every time we lose.

 

[bac2therac]

no we outplayed them, we really did it, we just missed our shots, should have won I know it

 

[bethlehemfan]

we played like shit across the board, i dont know why people just cannot accept that. Look it happens, Im not concerned or broken up over it but im not going to sit here and say yeah we only lost because we didnt hit shots, no shit sherlock, you can say that for every game....

No you can only say that when you are abysmal. We played poorly in some ways sure. My point is when you shoot 2-17 from three the rest is just noise unless every other aspect of the game is unbelievably good.

 

[fluoxetine]

no we outplayed them, we really did it, we just missed our shots, should have won I know it

You're analysis is literally "they score more point so they play better". Congrats on spending a lot of words to get it across