GAME 20 MICHIGAN: Simply Overmatched

[bac2therac]

Let me preface what I am going to say by stating we were beat by a better team.
We were not walloped, Michigan did not take their foot off the pedal. We started trappong them which brought them out of their game plan. No team is going to say OK we are up by 17 lets relax because a few made threes and a few stops and now your in single digits. We have shown in the past we can come back. So I whole heartedly disagree with your comment they let up

the game was 14 points with 2:49 left, people are going ga ga over JY in garbage time outplaying Michigan. Great to see but not really any reality of how the game went

at no time was Michigan threatened and in fact when RU got to 8, all Michigan did was simply call timeout, set up Wagner who drained a 3 to make it 66-55 with just over a minute left

We were outplayed in every facet of the game and I really do not have an issue with it. No shame in our play yesterday. We competed, especially in the first half and didnt give up when down 17.

 

[fluoxetine]

Hopefully the 3 point shooting will improve, but until I see it, I can't assume that the team will get back to its early season 3 point shooting percentages, or that the recent 3 point shooting will improve much.

In the 12 games we've played so far in 2021 (which is our last 7 weeks of games, so I don't think it's "cherry picking"):

63/228 on 3s- 27.63%, 0.829 pts per shot

(For comparison, the worst 3 pt shooting team in the conference this season so far is Minnesota, at 29.1%. (27.96% in their 2021 games).

It's still cherry picking. Why the last 7 weeks? Why not 6 weeks? Why not 10 weeks?

Just from a purely logical standpoint it's pretty weird for someone to think our long term 3-point rate is 27.63%, I mean let's look at some other teams that I think everyone would agree could not shoot the three:

2020 Rutgers - 30.8%
2019 Rutgers - 31.2%
2018 Rutgers - 29.6%
2017 Rutgers - 30.2%
2016 Rutgers - 32.2%

It is extremely, extremely likely that the 3 point % from now until the end of the season will be >27.63%.

 

[fluoxetine]

Like no one thinks this is a team of Steph Currys but do you people honestly not believe we could win a three point shooting contest against like Alabama A&M and Southeastern Louisiana. It's just ridiculous.

No one should expect them to return to the early season form; that was a fluke just like the recent data is. They are just a normal, bad 3 point shooting team like the rest of those teams were and will shoot like 30-33%.

 

[bac2therac]

It's still cherry picking. Why the last 7 weeks? Why not 6 weeks? Why not 10 weeks?

Just from a purely logical standpoint it's pretty weird for someone to think our long term 3-point rate is 27.63%, I mean let's look at some other teams that I think everyone would agree could not shoot the three:

2020 Rutgers - 30.8%
2019 Rutgers - 31.2%
2018 Rutgers - 29.6%
2017 Rutgers - 30.2%
2016 Rutgers - 32.2%

It is extremely, extremely likely that the 3 point % from now until the end of the season will be >27.63%.

those are not exactly good numbers

 

[fluoxetine]

I know. They're bad. I never said we were good lol we are shooting 32% for the season. The people I'm arguing with (you!) claim our true average is like 25% or 27% which would be like historically disastrous numbers instead of merely bad

 

[bac2therac]

its still 251st in the country..not good

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I know. They're bad. I never said we were good lol we are shooting 32% for the season. The people I'm arguing with (you!) claim our true average is like 25% or 27% which would be like historically disastrous numbers instead of merely bad

Because teams started defending us differently from the first Michigan State game onward. That’s why. It’s not cherry picking. Even the announcers predicted it would happen.

 

[L8115]

If Michigan is a 1 seed, then I think Rutgers is actually more like a 5 seed. Their defense is elite and when they are hitting shots can beat top 10 teams such as illinois.

I think they will win a few games games in the tourney.

 

[fluoxetine]

its still 251st in the country..not good

Lol you are trying to distract from the part where you claim we are a 25% three-point shooting team. Nobody anywhere is arguing that 32% is good.

Guess what, last year we also shot 26% for a six game stretch from the UMass game through the Lafayette game. I'm glad we didn't stop taking them altogether since we shot 33% the rest of the year which again is not great but is a **** of a lot better scoring output than we are getting from midrange.

 

[bac2therac]

its not our game at all but keep shooting just like we did at Iowa, how did that turn out

 

[AZBlues]

It's still cherry picking. Why the last 7 weeks? Why not 6 weeks? Why not 10 weeks?

In your post that I replied to you said that your stats were for this year... Out of curiosity I wanted to see what the 3 pt stats were if we considered "this year" to be 2021, especially since our 5 game losing streak started with the first game of 2021. Seven weeks is how long it's been since then. I didn't randomly choose a period of 7 weeks to evaluate, but I understand your point.

 

[fluoxetine]

its not our game at all but keep shooting just like we did at Iowa, how did that turn out

Lol you are like a parody of yourself at this point. Against Iowa we shot 28 threes and lost, against Michigan only 12 and also lost, I mean with your logic I guess we are ****ed either way?

"Our game" is terrible, terrible offense. The fact that is not "our game" is the ****ing problem lol. What are you even trying to say at this point??

 

[fluoxetine]

"Our game" is legit to not shoot threes and not get to the line, it's like the anti-offense.

 

[fluoxetine]

Because teams started defending us differently from the first Michigan State game onward. That’s why. It’s not cherry picking. Even the announcers predicted it would happen.

Lol please, if Michigan St. had some magic blueprint for beating us why did they lose by 30 the second time?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Lol please, if Michigan St. had some magic blueprint for beating us why did they lose by 30 the second time?

Having a bunch of guys who hadn’t played in weeks recovering from Covid probably played a role in that. In any case, we still didn’t shoot well from 3. The point really is that teams started defending us much further out on a the perimeter.

 

[fluoxetine]

Having a bunch of guys who hadn’t played in weeks recovering from Covid probably played a role in that. In any case, we still didn’t shoot well from 3. The point really is that teams started defending us much further out on a the perimeter.

But that actually seems like a stupid defensive strategy if we are a 25% 3-point shooting team. I mean bac thinks shooting threes would be bad for us so presumably they should back off and let us shoot.

This is a circular argument:
We can't hit threes and are a historically bad 3 point shooting team because other teams completely adjusted their defensive strategy to take away the huge threat we pose from 3 (????????????????????????????)

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

But that actually seems like a stupid defensive strategy if we are a 25% 3-point shooting team. I mean bac thinks shooting threes would be bad for us so presumably they should back off and let us shoot.

This is a circular argument:
We can't hit threes and are a historically bad 3 point shooting team because other teams completely adjusted their defensive strategy to take away the huge threat we pose from 3 (????????????????????????????)

Actually - no. Let me rephrase. We’ve been a way better 3 point shooting team this year than last year when left wide open. Stacking the box is no longer an option against us. Last year’s scouting report said you could give us the space and take your chances.

Unfortunately we still stink when defended tightly on the perimeter.

 

[fluoxetine]

Actually - no. Let me rephrase. We’ve been a way better 3 point shooting team this year than last year when left wide open. Stacking the box is no longer an option against us. Last year’s scouting report said you could give us the space and take your chances.

Unfortunately we still stink when defended tightly on the perimeter.

Okay. This is a coherent theory and there is probably some truth to it. But I think a lot of it is just a regression to being a below avg 3-point shooting team. I don't think Harper went from 50% to 0% because of the defense (or at least not ALL because of the defense).

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

The final five minutes was clearly a good bit of fool's gold. Michigan had their foot off the gas.

I would add that.. For once.. We had ref help in 2nd half.. No doubt fair calls.. But they weren't making those calls in the 1st. I think OP and most comments were correct. Michigan played well until game out of reach.. We needed better shooting all around. We could be a dangerous tourney team if we get hot shooting.. I suppose the same could be said for most tourney teams.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Okay. This is a coherent theory and there is probably some truth to it. But I think a lot of it is just a regression to being a below avg 3-point shooting team. I don't think Harper went from 50% to 0% because of the defense (or at least not ALL because of the defense).

Okay. This is a coherent theory and there is probably some truth to it. But I think a lot of it is just a regression to being a below avg 3-point shooting team. I don't think Harper went from 50% to 0% because of the defense (or at least not ALL because of the defense).

It’s not my theory. I stole it from the announcer in that Michigan State game who correctly predicted that we would need to figure out a way to adjust our offense following that game. We then went from Kempom elite to where we are now. Fortunately we figured things out on defense eventually to make up For it.

You’re right though - it’s a combination. We’re not, and never were 10%-20% bad. And we were never 35-40% good. There’s some regression to the mean, but a big part of that is not getting the same number of open looks. The disappearance of the transition game hurt the 3 point percentage too. When teams had to race back to defend us from the easy lay up, it opened up the kick out 3s. We’re no longer pushing transition we haven’t been able to finish. Trying and failing to execute causes us to fall too far behind. cost us several games during the losing streak. That’s why Pike changed to half court style. He had no choice.

 

[Groz]

Bac is results oriented, Ohio State in a 5 game series with Michigan would win 3 games to 1.

I don't see how you are approaching this as if they could have played better and won by 30.....it's ridiculous

I have Mathis driving past Michigan defenders 3 separate times, missing 3 separate layups, but Michigan has played great defense.....RU took a long time putting JY into the game to run and force an isolation/switch, where Dickinson was put on ice skates and Wagner is not good on defense either. Don't be fooled by RU playing 4 on 5 offense with Mulcahy refusing to have any goal of trying to score.

Will Ohio State miss 1 and 1 FTs....if Michigan can't stay in front of Mathis in limited minutes and couldn't stop Young, why is that great defense???...(Hint, it's not)

Michigan has played a very limited schedule missing 3 full weeks and no true contenders in the B1G. If you think they're going 19-1 over 20 B1G games, good luck with that one.

I don't believe Michigan is better than Iowa, Illinois or Ohio State. They all have specific weaknesses that can be exploited and I don't see any of them as a Final 4 lock. There is a drastically different way that a Gonzaga attacks on offense and Baylor plays defense that is miles better than Michigan. Maybe Michigan improves but they have a specific size advantage over Ohio State but I would be shocked if Ohio State struggles to score vs Michigan Sunday.

But, if Michigan is the clear best B1G team and bac believes that RU playing 4 on 5, missing layups, missing FTs and 1 to 10 from 3 before the game was over and it was only a 12 point game, then RU is drastically better than you believe. RU with one more complete/functional offensive and defensive player who can dribble shoot pass and play reasonably good defense, has RU right there.

Right now you have dribble, no shoot, good pass and not good or consistent enough on close outs with Mulcahy

You have dribble, refuse to make pass, shoot and can play good to great defense (but mostly if he's scoring) in Mathis.

Both of those players have the ability or inability to do what Caleb can do. Caleb plays a complete basketball game on both ends and even if he's not making shots, it's not like he's turning down shots or not taking what the defense gives....he plays defense, rebounds and competes with an edge.

You're giving Michigan way too much credit for great defense playing 5 on 4 with Mulcahy not as a threat to score or Mathis with no goal of giving up the ball and he still had 3 layups or shots at the rim and missed all 3. .....but I guess that's great Michigan defense......

Ohio State is real good, but saying that in a 5 game series, Michigan would only win 1 game, is cockeyed thinking in my opinion.

Dickinson did not even play well yesterday, we defended him pretty well. Michigan has so many weapons inside and out with good size and defend very well.

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[bac2therac]

Lol you are like a parody of yourself at this point. Against Iowa we shot 28 threes and lost, against Michigan only 12 and also lost, I mean with your logic I guess we are ****ed either way?

"Our game" is terrible, terrible offense. The fact that is not "our game" is the ****ing problem lol. What are you even trying to say at this point??

Not our game

 

[fluoxetine]

Not our game

lol you are torching your credibility

 

[NickRU714]

Not our game

Everyone mostly tiptoes around it without actually saying it.

Every game its "our 3pt shooting sucks so can't expect to score".
See our #13 or #14 ranking in conference 3pt shooting each year.

It's not the players - it's the system/coaching staff.
It's pretty apparent focusing (or at least including) 3pt shooting is needed.
But it's "not our game".

Again, not because of the players.
Because the staff prioritizes other skills in recruiting.

Make your own conclusions on how we change "our game".

 

[Treeman]

do you think Michigan has no effect on whether we shoot our percentage. Michgan plays the best defense in the league, they gave us some shots but took away the perimeter, we missed open shots and we do it often

Rutgers was 11/24 around the rim. That’s pretty terrible and not indicative of Michigan’s defense. It’s because Rutgers can’t make layups and bunnies. I like your recaps, but you’re talking about the flow of the game. The flow would have been drastically different if Rutgers could make more than 11/24 around the rim. That’s awful. Awful. They consistently can’t do it. And the stat is not an aberration due to Michigan’s defense. It’s a consistent stat.

 

[bac2therac]

lol you are torching your credibility

Im fine

 

[bac2therac]

Rutgers was 11/24 around the rim. That’s pretty terrible and not indicative of Michigan’s defense. It’s because Rutgers can’t make layups and bunnies. I like your recaps, but you’re talking about the flow of the game. The flow would have been drastically different if Rutgers could make more than 11/24 around the rim. That’s awful. Awful. They consistently can’t do it. And the stat is not an aberration due to Michigan’s defense. It’s a consistent stat.

Michigan specifically plays a defense that takes away perimeter shooting yet posters here now want us to take more contested 3s

 

[Treeman]

Michigan specifically plays a defense that takes away perimeter shooting yet posters here now want us to take more contested 3s

My post said nothing about perimeter shooting, and I'm not here to take other posters' stances. 11/24 around the rim is awful and has nothing to do with other posters. Bunnies, layups, and seeking out revenge on the rim for murdering their little brother. Only not getting the ball in the rim. 11/24. This is not explained by a perimeter defense, and has been consistent all year. It's an awful stat line.

Don't get me wrong, this is the team. But the team isn't going to go that far unless they figure out how to make shots around the rim. Perimeter 2's are nice. Rutgers does that really well. It doesn't setup for an NCAA run though.

 

[fluoxetine]

Im fine

"Not our game" is a self-referential argument. You are basically just a troll at this point. I know you actively refuse to do math but you have literally no idea what you are talking about on this.

Rutgers is a good mid-range shooting team and a poor 3-point shooting team and it still doesn't matter because THE THREES ARE WORTH 150% OF THE ****ING POINTS.

Michigan specifically plays a defense that takes away perimeter shooting yet posters here now want us to take more contested 3s

More 3s, contested or not, to the exclusion of terrible midrange shots, yes.

I mean, if you can get dunks and layups take them, they are even better.

 

[RedChucken123]

A little late to the game as I missed watching the game live, but I watched it closely, replaying moments on my DVR. My thoughts...watch it back yourself.

- Harper plays good individual defense. He is not very good off the ball on defense though. I don't think it is effort though. I think he is trying to conserve his energy. If I was the opposing team, I'd run him around as much as I could. Maybe another reason why he was so good early in the season, but can't get lift on his three point shot now. Pikiell needs to find a way to keep him fresher somehow. His conditioning needs to improve in the off-season.
- I'm not as down on Mathis as some of you guys. Contrary to Harper, Mathis needs to get riled up. He was at his best when he was locked in on defense and clapping in people's faces and hustling. When he made a couple of his mistakes on offense, he was barely sweating, coming cold off the bench at times. Get him locked in and he'll be back. He needs to get into a rhythm and bringing him in and out too much doesn't help.
- Paul still needs to get quicker. If he can't penetrate as the point guard against an athletic team like Michigan, he's not as effective. Put Geo or Jacob as point guard at that point. Also, the weakest link on defense off the dribble, though our defense is very good at times, so weak in our defense is probably pretty decent on other teams.
- I think we can beat Michigan, if we learned from our mistakes and start hitting some of our open shots. There are times when the opposing team does things that frustrate, but wow me. (i.e. OSU grabbing offensive rebounds, Iowa knocking down threes left and right) Michigan played smarter and more consistent as a team, but I wasn't necessarily wowed by any one person's individual talent.
- I know it's crunch time these last few games, but I wish we saw more Mawot and Reiber. I think they played respectable from what I've seen and could probably spot someone like Ron for a breather at times.

 

[kapyoche]

One thing that still puzzles me. We have been in the BIg for some time now, and we still can't compete against the elite teas in just about every sport. We are not getting players to make us elite. I don't think coaching is the problem.

 

[Groz]

Not our game

You keep saying that. I guess we can just agree to disagree. If we have open 3's, you have to take them against good teams or you are going to lose unless you play almost a perfect game both offensively and defensively.

You can't keep trying to only make 2 pointers when other teams get 1.5 times as many points for 3 pointers. Plus, for some crazy reason, for a team that is pretty good, we miss a ridiculous amount of close-up layups, etc(no one can understand it). To win college games against good competition, you must take 3 point shots, even if you are not a great 3 point shooting team. PLUS, there is a decent chance that you can get an offensive rebound on a long 3 point shot anyway.......

I am sure there will be a game that we do start to hit some 3 pointers again and you will keep saying your mantra. As good as Myles Johnson has become, teams do not worry about him dominating(like a Garza). They push our team farther away from the basket. We have guys like Mathis who are capable of driving, but most times he is out of control and probably only has a 33% chance of making the shot. 33% of his attempts end up being blocked.

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[Groz]

Bac is results oriented, Ohio State in a 5 game series with Michigan would win 3 games to 1.

I don't see how you are approaching this as if they could have played better and won by 30.....it's ridiculous

I have Mathis driving past Michigan defenders 3 separate times, missing 3 separate layups, but Michigan has played great defense.....RU took a long time putting JY into the game to run and force an isolation/switch, where Dickinson was put on ice skates and Wagner is not good on defense either. Don't be fooled by RU playing 4 on 5 offense with Mulcahy refusing to have any goal of trying to score.

Will Ohio State miss 1 and 1 FTs....if Michigan can't stay in front of Mathis in limited minutes and couldn't stop Young, why is that great defense???...(Hint, it's not)

Michigan has played a very limited schedule missing 3 full weeks and no true contenders in the B1G. If you think they're going 19-1 over 20 B1G games, good luck with that one.

I don't believe Michigan is better than Iowa, Illinois or Ohio State. They all have specific weaknesses that can be exploited and I don't see any of them as a Final 4 lock. There is a drastically different way that a Gonzaga attacks on offense and Baylor plays defense that is miles better than Michigan. Maybe Michigan improves but they have a specific size advantage over Ohio State but I would be shocked if Ohio State struggles to score vs Michigan Sunday.

But, if Michigan is the clear best B1G team and bac believes that RU playing 4 on 5, missing layups, missing FTs and 1 to 10 from 3 before the game was over and it was only a 12 point game, then RU is drastically better than you believe. RU with one more complete/functional offensive and defensive player who can dribble shoot pass and play reasonably good defense, has RU right there.

Right now you have dribble, no shoot, good pass and not good or consistent enough on close outs with Mulcahy

You have dribble, refuse to make pass, shoot and can play good to great defense (but mostly if he's scoring) in Mathis.

Both of those players have the ability or inability to do what Caleb can do. Caleb plays a complete basketball game on both ends and even if he's not making shots, it's not like he's turning down shots or not taking what the defense gives....he plays defense, rebounds and competes with an edge.

You're giving Michigan way too much credit for great defense playing 5 on 4 with Mulcahy not as a threat to score or Mathis with no goal of giving up the ball and he still had 3 layups or shots at the rim and missed all 3. .....but I guess that's great Michigan defense......

I guess you think Ohio State would sweep them the rest of the 5 games? Just busting on you. These 2 teams are so evenly matched, great teams.

Ohio State was actually kind of lucky because Washington could have been called for a push-off charge on that play before hitting that big 3.

Both teams are excellent.

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[FIJI'83]

No penetration = O fouls on Maryland =: no foul shots

 

[FIJI'83]

PMhas taken 1 shot. Playing 4v. 5 on offense