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General Pre NCAATourney Discussion

bac2therac

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I will start by quickly looking at the regions.

First the Gonzaga region

Honestly I do not like how this bracket shook out. Gonzaga clearly got an easy bracket consider their 4 is Virginia and not a Oklahoma State. Could Ohio beat UVA in the first round?

Iowa is good but Gonzaga already beat them fairly easily.

Consider the 3 and 4 seeds Kansas/Virginia are both having Covid issues and will miss players and practice time all week and Virginia may be the weakest 4 seed in history.

Then the 5 seed Creighton has seem off court turmoil as well as suffering a humiliating loss to UConn. I know many are picking UCSB here but not really sure that team is good enough to win this game

The 6 seed USC was unimpressive late in the Pac 12 season. The 11s here Drake/WSU can beat USC

Oregon at 7 could be a sleeper here. Can they keep up with the Hawkeyes in the 2nd round and pull the upset. Here would be my sleeper pick to get to the elite 8

Missouri/Oklahoma a pretty good 8/9 matchup but Missouri has been wildly inconsistent and OK played poorly down the stretch



Michigan region

Michigan has shown some vulnerabilities late in the season. Yes it was against top Big 10 competiton but if LSU gets by the Bonnies, they look like the most likely 8 to beat a 1. Either way I do not like Michigan getting to the Final 4

I like Alabama in this region to make the final 4. I dont see a major issue with them getting by either MD/Uconn in the 2nd round.

Texas the 3 seed playing well but I think Izzo and MIchigan State who should easily dispatch of UCLA could give them trouble...should be a great game

Georgetown over Colorado is the most obvious and sexy play right now but I would be cautious going to far in on the Hoyas. What happens in tourney play does not always translate and Colorado when at their best is a pretty good team. I think they were overseeded here

Not impressed with Florida State, they lost to Notre Dame late and didnt even make the ACC finals. I think they are ripe for an upset here and will lose to UNCGreensboro



Baylor Region

I think Baylor should have their way, this is the 2nd weakest region.

I think Wisc/UNC is a great 8/9 matchup but neither should present problems for Baylor

Ohio State played much better in the Big 10 tourney then how they finished the regular season. I do not see their half of their draw all that tough. Arkansas will be their toughest challenge as UF/Va Tech will not pose much of a challenge.

Purdue is solid as a 4 but a cut below the top teams and a bit inexperienced here on the big stage to knock off a Baylor.

Winthrop over Nova looks obvious..is it too obvious?

Texas Tech/Utah State pretty intriguing matchup. I think Utah State has the inside outside combo to pull the upset here.



Illinois Region

By far Illinois was delivered the toughest region overall and screwed with the toughest 4 see and probably the most tricky 8 seed

Loyola Chicago as an 8 is dangerous and yes they can and will hang with Illinois

I think Oklahoma State royally screwed as a 4 when they could be a 2 and its a shame that a game that should be in the regional final will be played in the sweet 16. Cowboys could win this game so Illinois getting to the final 4 is no sure thing.

Tennessee as a 5 would be dangerous in another region but again they are the best 5 matched up with the best 4 and unlucky with the draw

Not a fan of Houston here as the 2, thats a weak 2 and could be picked off by the RU/Clemson winner. I think WVU though should easily dispatch of whoever comes out of here Hous/Clem/RU


First round upsets

Rutgers over Clemson
Utah State over Texas Tech
Winthrop over Villanova
Michigan State over BYU
UNC Greensboro over Florida State
Maryland over UConn
Drake over USC
 
If we tip off as a Vegas favorite, current line is -1.5, are we still considered an upset since we are a tournament committee 10th seed beating a 7 seed. While I did not look, we might be the first lower seed to be the vegas favorite (except perhaps a 9 over an 8).
 
Bac

Midwest region

The one thing to consider is that Oklahoma State ...though it got screwed on the seeding ....gets 5-6 day’s to prepare for Illinois. I think that gives them a better shot than just a single practice
 
LSU looks pretty, but they have a truly horrific defense. They let teams score at will against them and their offense is based off isolation scoring. While great on offense, a team of solid individual defenders could wreck them. St Bonnies will likely win that game.
 
I also fear a bit for Illinois in a potential matchup with Loyola. If Cockburn gets in foul trouble guarding Krutwig it will be a slog.
 
Get Gozanga to the final 4 (that was the goal)
Loved Michigan - but they are not going to make it..
Sorry - Baylor is over-rated and not making it either..

Unless B1G refs are working the Great 8 - our path to the Final Four is there........
 
If we tip off as a Vegas favorite, current line is -1.5, are we still considered an upset since we are a tournament committee 10th seed beating a 7 seed. While I did not look, we might be the first lower seed to be the vegas favorite (except perhaps a 9 over an 8).

I don’t think it’s very uncommon for 9s and 10s to be favored in first round games.
 
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But on the other side Krutwig is going to have hands full with Kofi. Two fouls 5 minutes in Loyola will have problems. They have Georgi as backup who is backup for Loyola?
 
One correction on Florida State: they were in the ACC finals. They lost because Georgia Tech got 15 steals in the game. FSU will cruise in the opening round IMO.

There is no guarantee Loyola gets past the Jackets. Moses Wright was the ACC player of the year and Alvarado is a strong veteran PG.
 
Don’t sleep on my Alma Mater, Morehead State. This won’t be a blowout for WVU. MSU can shoot, play fast, and a young center who can defend. Upset alert... just sayin
 
Krutwig could get in foul trouble guarding Cockburn, too.

clearly. Just saying as a 1 seed in Illinois, a top 10 KenPom Loyola Chicago team is not who I would want to see in the 2nd round. Illinois seems particularly dependent on both ends of the floor on Cockburn and if he were to get in foul trouble it could be a big problem. Loyola can likely do just fine guarding the transition and perimeter against Illinois, but will struggle mightily to contain Kofi.
 
don't disagree - but personally never loved 5/12 dogs - either way - the winner ain't getting past VA.

Virginia is going to be like a week with no practice heading into the game and then have to play a red hot Ohio U team in the 1st round that could well defeat them.
 
Am I wrong in saying the tourney usually starts on Thursday and the first 2 rounds run through Sunday?
 
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Nova lost their #2 scorer late in the season. Season finished with three bad losses out of four games. I have Winthrop with the 12-5 upset.

RU over Cleveland State for the Sweet Sixteen.

UCSB over Ohio for another Sweet Sixteen spot.
 
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