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Have the first 3 games changed your outlook on this season?

Morrischiano

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Dec 3, 2019
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So we’ve played two non-P-4 teams and an ACC team on the road. Given these performances and data points, have your season expectations stayed the same, increased or decreased?

I expected the team to win 7 games and this stretch reinforced that expectation. AK confirmed that he’s an upgrade in the passing game; mainly completing the passes that should be completed. Miller confirmed the expectation that he can contribute v the P4. The D is great as expected and GS will make confounding game management decisions. KM is great and Sam Brown is solid as expected.

The main reason why I don’t think we will be better than my 7 win preseason projection is USC. I thought we might be able to steal a win there but after watching them play 3 games, I don’t think it will happen.

In addition Illinois is not the Illinois of years past.

Your thoughts on expectations?
 
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They could win 8 or even 9. We will have some games where mistakes kill us or injuries prevent us from winning.

Revising expectations, again we have to see how they play Friday night and a lot depends on how deep we are heading into November.

Washington, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, Minnesota, Maryland and Michigan State are winnable; not that we win them all but we could. If we run that table it's a 10 win season.
 
No impact. We seem to always start 3-0 and then reality sets in. Even without the auto-loss trio on the schedule we face other VG teams instead.

Aside from Minnesota and UCLA, are there other likely wins ? Except for USC and probably a loss at Nebraska, the other 5 are probably toss ups. I’d sign up for 7-5.
 
I optimistically predicted an 8-4 record. There has been no change in that. I thought there would 5 or 6 very close games and they had to win the majority of those to have a good year. I think the next 3 games could be pivotal. They need to win at least 1 , 2 wins would be great. I had the losses @ Neb, Wisc., @ USC, @ MD. Wash, Illinois, MSU are going to be tough games.
 
The better teams (CFB and NFL) often know how to stop the run (Monangai had 27 yds vs Michigan and they kept Huskies to 46yds in title game).

RU has the WRs to throw more than the usual dinky passes and sideline, safety passes with training wheels. Need medium passing game with yards after catch. Stretch the field and let LOS breath. Last year the great run game kept opposition offenses on the bench and the defenses getting gassed.

I'll be curious to see how teams plan for RU now that they have video of new players. September is thin on intel with all the changes. They'll see things from VT they didn't see with first two games.
 
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The better teams (CFB and NFL) often know how to stop the run (Monangai had 27 yds vs Michigan and kept Huskies to 46yds).

RU has the WRs to throw more than the usual dinky passes and sideline, safety passes with training wheels. Need medium passing game with yards after catch. Stretch the field and let LOS breath. Last year the great run game kept opposition offenses on the bench and the defenses getting gassed.

I'll be curious to see how teams plan for RU now that they have video of new players. September is thin on intel with all the changes. They'll see things from VT they didn't see with first two games.
They will see that they can stop KM but Rutgers can still move the ball if you do. All teams have to bring their A games on both sides of the ball to beat us...
They can and we can also have clunkers but my pre-season was 6 wins, a must, 7 wins a nice job, 8+ well above expectations.

We weren't perfect in the first 3 but nothing that super worries me- I move us up 1 game. 7 wins a must 8 wins, nce and anything above- great
 
The season will still come down to our road games. I like our chances with our home schedule, but some of the road games (Nebraska, USC, and Michigan State) will be very tough. If we can win Friday night, that will keep the narrative positive for at least most of the season.
 
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Forget my preseason predictions, but based on our first 3 games and others quick thoughts on teams, we play, with the caveat that the 4th Q at Va Tech reminds us that anything can happen:

Washington-probable win
Nebraska- toss up to probable loss
Wisconsin-probable win
UCLA- probable win
USC-probable loss, unless we execute Michigan game plan
Minnesota-probable win
Maryland- toss up to probable win
Illinois-toss up
Michigan State-toss up to probable win

7-5, but 8-4 to 10-2 is possible. Is that enough hedging? Really need to see a little more of Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Illinois and Mich State
 
The better teams (CFB and NFL) often know how to stop the run (Monangai had 27 yds vs Michigan and kept Huskies to 46yds).

RU has the WRs to throw more than the usual dinky passes and sideline, safety passes with training wheels. Need medium passing game with yards after catch. Stretch the field and let LOS breath. Last year the great run game kept opposition offenses on the bench and the defenses getting gassed.

I'll be curious to see how teams plan for RU now that they have video of new players. September is thin on intel with all the changes. They'll see things from VT they didn't see with first two games.

We have a bit more talent / options at wide out and I know you like Gavin and want this to be the “reason” but so far that’s not really the difference. Nobody is making acrobatic catches down field for us. The main thing so far has been that we have a QB who completes simple throws and hits receivers in stride to allow for yards after catch. It’s time to just admit as much.
 
Forget my preseason predictions, but based on our first 3 games and others quick thoughts on teams, we play, with the caveat that the 4th Q at Va Tech reminds us that anything can happen:

Washington-probable win
Nebraska- toss up to probable loss
Wisconsin-probable win
UCLA- probable win
USC-probable loss, unless we execute Michigan game plan
Minnesota-probable win
Maryland- toss up to probable win
Illinois-toss up
Michigan State-toss up to probable win

7-5, but 8-4 to 10-2 is possible. Is that enough hedging? Really need to see a little more of Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Illinois and Mich State
I am with you on this.
There isn't a team on our schedule that does not have holes. USC and Neb are tough because they are on the road.
 
no change so far, but certainly nice to have a more functional QB. I like Gavin a lot and felt with patience he could develop, but much like with Trey Lance and Alex Smith in the NFL, such a raw talent has no business being a starter so soon
 
Forget my preseason predictions, but based on our first 3 games and others quick thoughts on teams, we play, with the caveat that the 4th Q at Va Tech reminds us that anything can happen:

Washington-probable win
Nebraska- toss up to probable loss
Wisconsin-probable win
UCLA- probable win
USC-probable loss, unless we execute Michigan game plan
Minnesota-probable win
Maryland- toss up to probable win
Illinois-toss up
Michigan State-toss up to probable win

7-5, but 8-4 to 10-2 is possible. Is that enough hedging? Really need to see a little more of Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Illinois and Mich State

I'm close to that. Washington toss up to possible win. Nebraska to probable loss. Michigan State to probable win.
 
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Almost forgot I took the over at 6 wins before the season started. Already hit on the ML against Va Tech.
 
We have a bit more talent / options at wide out and I know you like Gavin and want this to be the “reason” but so far that’s not really the difference. Nobody is making acrobatic catches down field for us. The main thing so far has been that we have a QB who completes simple throws and hits receivers in stride to allow for yards after catch. It’s time to just admit as much.

You're the one with the narrative.

I could always see GW replaced - I just saw the real problem was RU's abysmal QB coaching, offensive safetyism and lousy WRs - all being placed at feet of sacrificial lamb.

The accessory to GW being hated and deemed the worst player RU ever recruited was the crowd deeming Rudy an NFL WR and now he cant catch a cold.

Perhaps nobody is making acrobatic catches downfield because the good armed QB is limited beyond shorter distances. MN knew that last year and it was there on Sat. with uncatchable sideline balls that RU loves.

Washington has a top pass defense that practiced vs Penix and Odunze last year. Big Saturday coming up for offense this week. The safety passes wont be testing anyone.
 
Wimsatt wasnt a sacrificial lamb. He’d lose the Dr. Pepper NCG halftime throwing into the cutout contest to a blindfolded, drunk, one-arm violinist.

But I too am befuddled and discouraged by the uncatchable deep outs that continue to be Schiano’s favorite passes longer than 10 yards.

I don’t view this as QB inaccuracy. I view this as a 0% interception probability and 5% defensive pass interference prayer. It’s meets Schiano’s miniscule risk tolerance threshold.

This is in Shelby’s list of Schiano philosophy fails.
 
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So we’ve played two non-P-4 teams and an ACC team on the road. Given these performances and data points, have your season expectations stayed the same, increased or decreased?

I expected the team to win 7 games and this stretch reinforced that expectation. AK confirmed that he’s an upgrade in the passing game; mainly completing the passes that should be completed. Miller confirmed the expectation that he can contribute v the P4. The D is great as expected and GS will make confounding game management decisions. KM is great and Sam Brown is solid as expected.

The main reason why I don’t think we will be better than my 7 win preseason projection is USC. I thought we might be able to steal a win there but after watching them play 3 games, I don’t think it will happen.

In addition Illinois is not the Illinois of years past.

Your thoughts on expectations?

Undefeated and National Champs are still on the table. LOL
 
So we’ve played two non-P-4 teams and an ACC team on the road. Given these performances and data points, have your season expectations stayed the same, increased or decreased?

I expected the team to win 7 games and this stretch reinforced that expectation. AK confirmed that he’s an upgrade in the passing game; mainly completing the passes that should be completed. Miller confirmed the expectation that he can contribute v the P4. The D is great as expected and GS will make confounding game management decisions. KM is great and Sam Brown is solid as expected.

The main reason why I don’t think we will be better than my 7 win preseason projection is USC. I thought we might be able to steal a win there but after watching them play 3 games, I don’t think it will happen.

In addition Illinois is not the Illinois of years past.

Your thoughts on expectations?
I think you are no longer hearing
So we’ve played two non-P-4 teams and an ACC team on the road. Given these performances and data points, have your season expectations stayed the same, increased or decreased?

I expected the team to win 7 games and this stretch reinforced that expectation. AK confirmed that he’s an upgrade in the passing game; mainly completing the passes that should be completed. Miller confirmed the expectation that he can contribute v the P4. The D is great as expected and GS will make confounding game management decisions. KM is great and Sam Brown is solid as expected.

The main reason why I don’t think we will be better than my 7 win preseason projection is USC. I thought we might be able to steal a win there but after watching them play 3 games, I don’t think it will happen.

In addition Illinois is not the Illinois of years past.

Your thoughts on expectations?
There is no longer talk of 10 or 11 wins and CFP. 7 to 8 wins would be a successful season and I think that is realistic.
 
I think they are exactly where most us thought they would be at this point. From a positive standpoint AK is proving to be a very capable QB and that bodes well going forward, however GS still worries me as he is still not a very good game day coach and that may come back to bite RU(it almost did against Va Tech).
 
This ‘sick’ rumor. Someone here’s unfounded excuse perpetuated as fact or a legit source ?
I have heard some stuff from different places that would not have been connected to each other.

That being said it may just have been multiple speculations from the overall energy drain that was noticeable during the game.
 
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This ‘sick’ rumor. Someone here’s unfounded excuse perpetuated as fact or a legit source ?

Or... just fan speculation. I can tell you my daughter, a Junior at Rutgers, suffered a stomach bug mid-week, last week. Perhaps something went around campus. It's not outside the realm of possibility.
 
Or... just fan speculation. I can tell you my daughter, a Junior at Rutgers, suffered a stomach bug mid-week, last week. Perhaps something went around campus. It's not outside the realm of possibility.
No, not outside the realm of possibility. But seems more like a fan or two looking for non-football related excuse when there likely isn’t one.

I wonder, same bug that Carolina defensive players must have had on Saturday ? Had to be a bug, right ? No other explanation.
 
I have heard some stuff from different places that would not have been connected to each other.

That being said it may just have been multiple speculations from the overall energy drain that was noticeable during the game.

I think AK might have gotten people thinking.
 
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I think AK might have gotten people thinking.
Greg said in his presser today AK was a hydration issue. We need to bring Chris Ash back as the waterboy!!

giphy.gif
 
No… but Nebraska, Illinois and USC are better than we thought
Not sure if Nebraska is better than anyone thought. Pretty sure almost no one had us beating them and the media loved them right up there with VaTech.
USC- NO ONE except Al had us beating them
Illinois- yes, at this point, better. Good win against Kansas- but they may actually suck and good win against Neb but maybe that shows that Neb isn't as good. hmmm - I see them at 6-4 going into our games and being blown out by PSU/Mich/Oregon
 
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Not sure if Nebraska is better than anyone thought. Pretty sure almost no one had us beating them and the media loved them right up there with VaTech.
I think the question was how Raiola would do as a true freshman.
USC- NO ONE except Al had us beating them
LOL
Illinois- yes, at this point, better. Good win against Kansas- but they may actually suck and good win against Neb but maybe that shows that Neb isn't as good. hmmm - I see them at 6-4 going into our games and being blown out by PSU/Mich/Oregon

Maybe they will be beat up like RU was after playing OSU, UM and PSU over a 4-5 week stretch.
 
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So we’ve played two non-P-4 teams and an ACC team on the road. Given these performances and data points, have your season expectations stayed the same, increased or decreased?

I expected the team to win 7 games and this stretch reinforced that expectation. AK confirmed that he’s an upgrade in the passing game; mainly completing the passes that should be completed. Miller confirmed the expectation that he can contribute v the P4. The D is great as expected and GS will make confounding game management decisions. KM is great and Sam Brown is solid as expected.

The main reason why I don’t think we will be better than my 7 win preseason projection is USC. I thought we might be able to steal a win there but after watching them play 3 games, I don’t think it will happen.

In addition Illinois is not the Illinois of years past.

Your thoughts on expectations?
I still think Illinois is in play. Every time we've played them since joining the B1G, we never had an offense that can score and control the clock. We are balanced on offense. Va. Tech committed to stopping the run and we burned them with the passing game. I think opponents in the future will not committed 9 or 10 men in the box. The RB depth will wear teams down regardless of how tough they are against the run.

USC doesn't like physical games and Michigan did just that. We have a better offense than UM and our defense can play just as well as other top defenses in the b1G. This will be the toughest game left on the schedule. The run and tough defense travel. I know a ton of Rutgers fans were critical of the run game against Va. Tech, but it's much more than averaging 4 yards. If you can average a little over 3 yard a carry, that is the watermark to success when running the ball. Rutgers kept Va. Tech committed to stacking the box and it opened up the passing game. It the case of USC, they are nowhere as physical upfront that will allow Rutgers to move the ball and control the clock. Although the game is in L.A., these keys keep the game in play. Just have to bring it like we did in the first half of the Va. Tech game.

I think we will surpass the 7 game mark. People are following the media who pick 7 games as the high mark. We have an offense that matches the defense in the ability to create havoc for opponents. I think 9 or 10 wins should be the low bar. There are no teams remaining on the schedule that we count as an automatic loss. That doesn't exist this year.
 
Staying at 8 with a possibility of 9. Right now, I've got Nebraska, USC and Illinois as loses. With a big question mark next to Illinois, they've got some tough teams coming up, we'll see how they hold up. We're a fundamentally sound team with some minor things to clean up.

Washington- is a shell of its former self, you take away the deep threat that's all they've got, they don't sustain drives. Defense is not good
Nebraska- is going to be tough, their defense can be run on and Railoa's good but will make mistakes, no run game
Wisconsin- even with their starting QB(out for year) did not look impressive even in their cupcake wins
UCLA- hot mess
USC - that time and travel plus they're still a good USC
Minnesota- the boat ain't rowing. They've got problems and it wasn't Athan's fault PJ
Maryland - No Taulia and the offense has slowed after the UConn drubbing. You have to worry about Felton. The defense has also taken a step back.
Illinois - I have no idea where they came from but look really good. We'll see how they hold up not playing all West teams and playing some good teams.
Michigan St. - I don't get the love. They're a turnover machine, 10 in 4 games. We feast on sloppy play
 
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Unlike our first 10 seasons in the B1G there is no game that’s an automatic loss. Most seasons it’s been at least 3 automatic losses. Of the 9 games remaining we should be favored in at least 5.
If we stay healthy with the key players see us finishing at 9-3 before the NYD Bowl.
 
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