Howard Game day weather . How low can you go ? temps 78-80 degrees ! Mostly cloudy
- Thread starter nutfromSEC117
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13 day forecasts are mostly useless for specifics; this far out trends are what's worth looking at and the CPC forecast is for above normal for days 8-14, i.e., 8/25-8/31 (81/64F is normal for NB for 8/30), for temp and normal for precip, but predicting any single day is highly inaccurate at this point. For example it could be quite warm during those days, overall, but gameday could be cloudy/rainy and well below normal, kind of like tomorrow. Let's revisit this at the end of next week. Also, sunset is around 7:30 pm then, so hopefully only the 1Q will be in the sun.
Yes its early but there are indications of heat pulse moving east for last week of August
Arguably the absolute worst game of the year is the annual dull FCS blowout in the baking sun.
Don’t care about the how great the opposing band or cheerleaders are.
Just running out the clock by 10min left in the 3rd.
I know it’s not a Rutgers specific thing and everyone plays these games but the point remains.
Don’t care about the how great the opposing band or cheerleaders are.
Just running out the clock by 10min left in the 3rd.
I know it’s not a Rutgers specific thing and everyone plays these games but the point remains.
At least if it's hot, the game will be cooler than a noon or 3:30 pm game, especially without the sun being very high in the sky. Tailgates might still be mighty warm, though. That's why I would've rather had a 7:30-8:00 pm kickoff.
Sunset on 8/29 is 7:35 no idea where that puts sun at 6pm . Hopefully sec 117 is fully shaded by no later then 6:30
I know that - that's why only the 1Q will probably be in the sun before it goes behind the upper deck...
Let me get out that 45-day forecast which a few yahoos have posted over the years...
Have already had some big storms in NWNJ/EPA and SWNJ and SENY this afternoon, but they've all missed most of Middlesex County, but now storms are heading our way and could be severe (heavy rains/high winds), as they've been elsewhere. After tonight's storms, could be some scattered storms tomorrow and then we get a nice taste of fall with highs in the mid-70s and lows in the 50s (and upper 40s for far NW areas) Tues/Weds. Will be warmer by next weekend, but the weather looks pretty good. The following week is shaping up to be pretty warm, but still too early for a call for the game.
Flash flood warnings (in dark red in the map below) issued for areas along/N of 78 in EPA/NNJ up through 80 and even towards 84, as 2-6" of rain have fallen in the past couple of hours. Numerous road closures and some water rescues going on. Things are even worse in SW CT where 6-12" of rain has fallen today and flooding is widespread and locally catastrophic.
This thing didn't really hit Hudson County.It rained hard for a little while but it was never Floyd like.
Over the last 48 hours (mostly yesterday), as per the radar estimate below, we had absolutely insane rainfall amounts of 6-13" in SW CT and northern Suffolk Co. NY, leading to catastrophic flooding and pretty heavy amounts (3-6") in large swaths of CNJ/NNJ (and NYC/LI/CT), leading to significant flooding. But like most mesoscale events, coverage varied widely across even small distances. For example, we only got about 1/4" in Metuchen and just 10 miles NW of us they got 3-6" of rain.
its a week out and its looking likely we see temps in the 85-90 degree range for highs and likely a nice day....no guarantees this far out...looks like the main heat gets supressed somewhat that would preclude 90s but we shall see if that changes....
Why is that? Most of the models are now showing less heat with highs in the low 80s with some clouds and the potential for t-storms on 8/29; the long-range forecast since the start of this thread was for temps around 90F and sunshine, but as often happens, forecasts that far out don't verify. It still could end up being near 90F and dry (the Euro has that, but not the other medium range models), but even if it does it's more of an educated (since the trend was for warmer than normal temps and those trends are fairly accurate), but lucky guess.
Based on @bac2therac 's post of 85-90. Just being a bit silly and controversial in a weather thread, which is out of character for me.
most of the models??? huh....any official forecast for next week that I have seen calls for partly sunny/cloudy and temps in mid to upper 80s..just glanced at models for 0z friday and wondering where you are getting t storms...first of all that you would post an individual model run that is 168 hours out is just weird.....when you are looking at 7 day outlooks its the trend of whats going around and it doesnt appear any significant system is hanging around....monday through wednesday heat may be blunted by cut off upper low moving through with a slight chance of a passing shower but everything I have read indicates a fairly dry pattern over the next 7-10 days with .5 or less through the period, in fact I dont think the cfs has anything and ditto for euro
can things change..yes its still 7 days out but the lean here at the moment would be nice conditions in the mid 80s without a rain chance, you seem to indicate something else
prepare for battle and hemming and hawing over this forecast, its starting already
GFS, CMC and the AccuWeather 8-day forecast have highs in the low 80s, while the Euro has a high near 90F. GFS and CMC look dry, while the Euro has 1/4" of rain from t-storms (I misspoke above about the Euro being dry) from 1-7 pm on 8/29 and the AccuWeather forecast has a 60% chance of t-storms. My only point is that the models have diverged significantly from where they were the past several days, which were consistently showing dry and warm/hot and there is now much more question about both dry and hot (although muggy looks to be a lock). Not surprising this far out still.
weather.com has 88 and mix of clouds and sun for Thursday so tailgates which i think will be reduced anyway due to it being a work day and so early will be very warm.....of course by kickoff those temps will drop
Well, let's hope the Euro isn't right, as it's been consistently showing 90-95F high temps with uncomfortable humidity (dewpoints in the low 70s) and a few spotty showers during the day next Thursday. Hopefully, the CMC and GFS, which both show highs in the low 80s and reasonable dewpoints (around 60F) and no rain, are correct. The NWS appears to be favoring the CMC/GFS, with a bit of a nod towards the Euro, calling for a high in the low/mid-80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s and with only a slight chance of showers/storms (10-20% in their discussion - bold part below); AccuWeather is still showing 60% chance of spotty rain (about 0.1"), but now has highs in the upper 80s. The model variability is still, obviously, significant 7 days out, so stay tuned, although at the very least there appears to be no indication of any major organized storms or convection, which is good, so a dry or mostly dry day is looking likely.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
644 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast confidence and predictability remains lower into
early next week as a trough approaches the region. The trough
will close off into an upper low that will linger across New
England through Tuesday or Wednesday. With the surface high
offshore and southerly return flow persisting, high temperatures
will remain in the mid to upper 80s in many areas through the
middle of the week with lows in the 60s. High potentially near
90 degrees inland on Wednesday.
There will also be a return of chances for convection,
especially by daytime Monday. The chances for convection will be
dictated by exactly how the upper pattern related to the nearby
upper low transpires. The deterministic CMC, GFS, and ECMWF
remain consistent with support for Monday or Monday night being
the best chances for showers and storms, and this is also
reflected in the GEFS and NBM. Synoptically, this makes sense as
the best forcing should be present around this time frame given
the setup. The details on the evolution of the overall system
remain unclear at this time, however we`ve maintained and
slightly increased PoPs to range from about 20-40% for this time
frame. Some isolated convection could be possible through the
middle of the week as well, but coverage should remain low and
PoPs are generally 10-20% at best. Stuck closely with the NBM
PoPs for the long term forecast. Also increased cloud cover for
Monday and Tuesday given the nearby upper low.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
644 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast confidence and predictability remains lower into
early next week as a trough approaches the region. The trough
will close off into an upper low that will linger across New
England through Tuesday or Wednesday. With the surface high
offshore and southerly return flow persisting, high temperatures
will remain in the mid to upper 80s in many areas through the
middle of the week with lows in the 60s. High potentially near
90 degrees inland on Wednesday.
There will also be a return of chances for convection,
especially by daytime Monday. The chances for convection will be
dictated by exactly how the upper pattern related to the nearby
upper low transpires. The deterministic CMC, GFS, and ECMWF
remain consistent with support for Monday or Monday night being
the best chances for showers and storms, and this is also
reflected in the GEFS and NBM. Synoptically, this makes sense as
the best forcing should be present around this time frame given
the setup. The details on the evolution of the overall system
remain unclear at this time, however we`ve maintained and
slightly increased PoPs to range from about 20-40% for this time
frame. Some isolated convection could be possible through the
middle of the week as well, but coverage should remain low and
PoPs are generally 10-20% at best. Stuck closely with the NBM
PoPs for the long term forecast. Also increased cloud cover for
Monday and Tuesday given the nearby upper low.
While I usually start the gameday weather threads, this one seems to be going fine, although I would make one request, if you don't mind. Could you add "Howard" into the title of the thread (e.g., gameday weather for Howard)? Also, if we get to a forecast consensus, it might be useful to put that in the title somewhere (not there yet, obviously), as posters seem to like that. I often look back at the season's forecasts and it's much easier if the opponent is in the title, especially now that the search functionality on the site has been reduced. Thanks!
GFS has a very hot day Wednesday with low to mid 90s......with shower chances at night. Thursday dry and knocking temps back into the 80s
Euro is similar....
so at the moment, looks hot Tuesday and heat peaking Wednesday but not so bad on Thursday with the showers moving through Wednesday night. Have to keep an eye on any timeframe shifts that could impact
By late Wednesday or Thursday, a cold front may approach the
region from the northwest, bringing another chance for showers
and storms across the region. Still considerable uncertainty in
the timing of this front, and thus uncertainty in the exact
impacts with the front. Expect temperatures to warm above normal
ahead of the front through mid-week, then dropping back closer
to normal by the end of the week.
Euro is similar....
so at the moment, looks hot Tuesday and heat peaking Wednesday but not so bad on Thursday with the showers moving through Wednesday night. Have to keep an eye on any timeframe shifts that could impact
By late Wednesday or Thursday, a cold front may approach the
region from the northwest, bringing another chance for showers
and storms across the region. Still considerable uncertainty in
the timing of this front, and thus uncertainty in the exact
impacts with the front. Expect temperatures to warm above normal
ahead of the front through mid-week, then dropping back closer
to normal by the end of the week.
6 pm start helps.
My group almost died during our victory against Michigan State in 2004
My group almost died during our victory against Michigan State in 2004
I remember being at that game with my oldest son when he was a kid, one of those 90 degree high humidity days of early Sept. Withering.
Thu 29 | Day
86°17%
N8 mph
Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 86F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
- Humidity61%
- UV Index8 of 11
- Sunrise6:22 am
- Sunset7:33 pm
Thu 29 | Night
65°21%
ENE7 mph
Partly cloudy. Low near 65F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
- Humidity77%
- UV Index0 of 11
- Moonrise1:29 am
Waning Crescent - Moonset5:34 pm
Seems like more model divergence than usual the past few days. Today's 12Z UK has a high in the upper 80s, the Euro and CMC are in the low 80s, and the freakin' GFS is in the low 70s; NWS is sticking with low 80s, which is what the NBM (model blend) has. And while the NWS has it largely rain free for the tailgates and game, a couple of the models have a few light showers (nuisance level rain for most, especially when it's warm, i.e., <0.1" of rain) over that time.
So highs in the low 80s (but warmer and cooler are both possible), with fairly muggy conditions (dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s) and mostly rain-free is what it looks like 5 days out, but that still can change some, i.e., this is not a "lock it up" scenario, like this past week was 5 days before each day. NWS discussion below.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
445 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period as a whole remains highly variable as the upper
level pattern differs significantly amongst available guidance. For
now, the general consensus is for a cold front to cross through the
region on Wednesday night into Thursday which may bring a round of
showers and storms to the region. Dry conditions are then expected
for Thursday and most of Friday before another disturbance
approaches in time for next weekend. This may bring another round of
precipitation to the area.
Temperatures for the long term period are expected to be above
average on Wednesday in which heat headlines may be become warranted
for portions of the area as heat indicies will be near 100 degrees.
Temperatures then look to return to around average for Thursday
through Saturday following the passage of the cold front around
midweek.
The funny thing is, one can actually almost "predict" that, because LA gets almost no rain in October (~1/2" or less) and their highs/lows don't vary that much. Way harder to predict weather around here based on climatolology, because the variance across days is so high. I recall predicting weeks in advance that the Fresno St. game several years ago in August would be 95F and sunny with no rain, since they get 0.0" of rain in August and almost every day is in the 90s.
