I’m still hoping for a road win

Discussion in 'Men's Basketball' started by zappaa, Feb 14, 2020.

  1. zappaa

    zappaa Hall of Famer
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    But if we take care of business at home and that means two wins against ranked opponents.
    Do close road losses help our cause?

    I’m admittedly not well versed on all the metrics the selection committee uses
     
  2. shields

    shields Hall of Famer
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    Need to win tomorrow, Michigan scares me. Until we beat them.
     
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  3. zappaa

    zappaa Hall of Famer
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    My bad, I forget about UM and that 3rd home game
     
  4. BillyC80

    BillyC80 All American
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    All signs point to 3 wins getting us to the big dance, even if all 3 are home games.
     
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  5. NewJerseyHawk

    NewJerseyHawk Heisman Winner
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  6. NewJerseyHawk

    NewJerseyHawk Heisman Winner
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    This is the bible....no rumors, no opinions, nothing but exactly what the NCAA factors into their rankings. The rankings are not the only thing but shatters myths about whether road wins are more important than home etc

    Quad 1 wins are the determining factor towards securing a bid. It does not distinguish a home Q1 win from a road Q1 win. The more Q1/Q2 wins you get, the higher likelihood is you make the tournament.

    The more Q3 and Q4 bad losses you avoid, is just as important as getting Q1/Q2 victories.

    The 3 most important games for RU were Nebraska twice and last Sunday night vs Northwestern. There are no bad losses on RUs resume, despite fans making up stories about St Bonaventure and Pittsburgh being bad losses.

    The only potential red flag for the 10 or 11 B1G teams and their hopes in avoiding another bad loss, is ONLY if Nebraska or Northwestern win a game in the B1G tournament against one of the bubble teams and advances to upset another team higher seeded in the B1G tournament.

    Seton Hall, Penn State, Wisconsin, SFA all for various reasons are important wins.

    The picture above also measures efficiency which means that although winning by 10+ points is the same as winning by 30 points on one measurement, is not measuring offensive and defensive efficiency.

    So RU grades out very well across the board in almost all categories which includes margin of defeat....or avoiding the big ugly loss, where they shoot a bad FG percentage.

    The Michigan loss at MSG did more to impact RUs efficiency because they had numerous easy baskets that they missed and a high amount of offensive rebounds that they didn't convert. In a strange way, they would have been better off with 10 to 12 less tap-in attempts or offensive rebounds vs Michigan.

    The 1.4 on the picture shows what road wins are valued at and it clearly shows a bad loss is just as damaging as a Q1 road win would mean to boost RUs resume or seeding....or in common sense terms, RU would absolutely need to secure a road win IF, they had lost either Nebraska game or Northwestern.....but despite people saying a road win is needed, it 100% is not.....a home loss or avoiding them is just as important and RU has played very well at the RAC....

    Any of those losses would have only been offset by a Q1 road win. Since those losses don't exist on RUs resume, RU needs to win as many games as possible, but 2 to 3 home wins pretty much secures a NCAA bid (unless we played Nebraska or Northwestern again in the B1G tournament and were to lose badly by double digits with only 1 more win the rest of the way).

    Bottom line is as long as the fans make the RAC as tough as possible on the last 3 visitors and RU handles its business and plays good basketball, it doesn't matter what else happens.
     
    6 NewJerseyHawk, Feb 14, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
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  7. Scarlet Blind

    Scarlet Blind Junior
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    2 is basically Ken Pom
    3 is standard
    4 is old rpi
    5 is that notorious 10 pt cap thing
    Is 1 that horrible ESPN BPI?
     
    7 Scarlet Blind, Feb 14, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
  8. Groz

    Groz Senior
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    Hawk,

    I know this is only the second year for the committee(they are still human) using the NET, but do you know which teams that were ranked lower in the NET last year got at large bids and got in as opposed to teams that had the higher NET that did not get picked? Thanks.

    Best of Luck,
    Groz
     
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  9. zappaa

    zappaa Hall of Famer
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    3 you get:)
    Gotta be old to understand that.
     
  10. BillyC80

    BillyC80 All American
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    Egg roll?
     
  11. zappaa

    zappaa Hall of Famer
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    Old Abbott and Costello.
    Lou is a boxer and Bud tells him to give his opponent the old 1-3!
    Lou says “what happened to 2”
    Bud says “ 2 you get”
    Lmao
     
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  12. NewJerseyHawk

    NewJerseyHawk Heisman Winner
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    I think NCState last year had a better NET than a couple of other at large teams but had multiple Q3 losses that I believe the other contenders had and got measured against. It is searchable on the NCAA website but other than NCState, I don't think there was another at large bypassed with more Q3 losses.

    The NC State thing was severely overblown in talking about their weak OOC schedule as the reason they didn't get in.....fact was it had no impact whatsoever.....

    What did NCState in, were 2 bad ACC losses to Georgia Tech home in early March and away at Wake Forest in January....keep in mind NC State started 14-2 & losing at Wake was huge.

    Georgia Tech finished 6-12 in ACC play and Wake finished 4-14 in league play. If NC State handled business in either game, they would have made it. NC State also had a strange 47-24 home loss to Virginia Tech....my guess is shooting under 25% or something absurd, crushed their efficiency....they also had a 1 point home loss to eventual National Champ UVA....perhaps getting UVA would have offset GT or Wake....

    The bad loss or avoiding it, is just as important to your resume.

    The strength of the B1G, makes it very difficult to penalize teams for having a lot of Q1 losses, just because those are difficult matchups, especially on the road. Geo Baker vs Nebraska and Northwestern, is as responsible for ensuring RU is in position to capitalize on this season. Saving us at home in both games was key....and RU having 6 losses in B1G play by 6 points or less is a huge positive item.
     
  13. S_Janowski

    S_Janowski All American
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    We will beat PSU on the road. Mark it down.
     
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  14. Pancho1939

    Pancho1939 Sophomore
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    But but but... this team can’t win on the road... I think winning on the road is really only important because it would be a huge hurdle that this team got over and would give them a nice confidence boost. A lot of this is mental And getting a W on road would give us a better shot at winning in the first round if we make it since all games are neutral courts
     
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  15. bac2therac

    bac2therac Legend
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    but road wins are actually another criteria they do look at...mainly as a seeding tool or if a team is close to the last in/last out line
     
  16. BillyC80

    BillyC80 All American
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    Haha, awesome. My sister lived in Manhattan for years in a tiny apartment. We used to kid her that she had a Costello kitchen. If you remember in their TV show their kitchen was so small it was hidden behind a curtain. Loved that show.
     
  17. Groz

    Groz Senior
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    Thanks
     
  18. RU89

    RU89 Senior
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    I actually agree with this. I think we match up well with them. We are a last second blocked shot last year away of winning 3 in a row against them including winning at their place last year.
     
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  19. BillyC80

    BillyC80 All American
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    Gotta be honest, I’m not seeing it, the way they’re playing right now. But hopefully we have one of those nights like we had against SHU.
     
  20. Night Man

    Night Man Heisman Winner
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    Not playing well as of late, so hard to envision a road win as of now. But that can change. Some of it comes down to simple things like boxing out. With that said, heed these facts:

    - We have yet to be swept. We swept the only team we've played twice.
    - Not only that, we have yet to lose on the road to a team we beat at home.
     
  21. NiTeKnight

    NiTeKnight Sophomore
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    5 losses by 6 points or less. Lost to Michigan State by 12.
     
  22. zappaa

    zappaa Hall of Famer
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    I’d love to believe this, but the reality is the task is enormous .
    Unfortunately there’s nothing you can point to that suggests we win.
     
  23. rufeelinit

    rufeelinit All American
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    Agree. What is the basis for thinking this based on how both teams are currently performing? PSU is playing very well and their fans will support them even if they struggle to understand the difference between a charge, tackle or two point takedown. While we may still get one, I would think Wisconsin would be the likely spot. The OSU crowd was late arriving and not very hostile the other night but we could not take advantage of that. We need to play better. End of story,
     
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  24. Fzacsattac

    Fzacsattac Junior
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  25. Fzacsattac

    Fzacsattac Junior
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    Roll your own.......lol

    [​IMG]
     

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