If The Season Ended Today (Friday)

[knightfan7]

Best case scenario.

Not very likely but best case would be Wisconsin losing all 3 remaining games, MSU and Md lose at least 1, and RU wins both theirs. RU ends up 11-9 and the best all the others can finish is 10-10.

You can dream can't ya?

 

[SirPerceval]

The **** you talking about mate?

Let's say team A is slightly better than team B, such the the probability of team A winning a game between them is:
70% if team A is at home
60% neutral site
50% if team B is at home

If these teams play a home and home + a neutral site game, the chances of A winning all three are
70% * 60% * 50% = 21%

So by this token, it is "hard" to win all three games.

But if team A has already won both games in the home and home, their chance of winning the neutral site game is still 60%.


You are taking a true statement
"It is hard to beat a team three times in a row" <= true
and using it to support a false statement
"If you've already beaten a team twice, it is now more difficult to beat them again" <= almost certainly false

You're assuming the probability of a win on a neutral court doesn't change after the two games are played. This isn't a coin flip - its logical to think the probability of winning drops after a team has seen you play twice.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

I think the worse memory of playing a team for the third time after winning the first two was St. Johns in the 1978-79 NCAA tournament. Probably cost us a trip to our second final four.

Was at that game - we were far better but they got hot and RU was flat. Really tough loss.

Tom Young took the air out of the ball with a lead and we stagnated. Wayne McKoy got an odd carom over JB for the game winning put back. I was there. Court club bus. That fall, I was in grad school down there at wfu. Worst Loss Ever

 

[fluoxetine]

You're assuming the probability of a win on a neutral court doesn't change after the two games are played. This isn't a coin flip - its logical to think the probability of winning drops after a team has seen you play twice.

They've seen us play twice, probability drops. We've seen them play twice, probability goes back up. Lol math how does it work.

 

[fluoxetine]

Look, I will grant you guys that if you are beating someone with some unique strategy; abusing a specific play, outscheming them in some specific way, then sure, the likelihood of that continuing to work will go down somewhat the more you do it.

Is this how you guys think we were beating Indiana? From what I can see we are just winning by having better players. There's no reason that should not hold up just as well in a third game.

 

[NickKnight 1]

It is very hard to beat one team three times in one season.

For instance in baseball, it is hard either team to win a double header.

 

[knights1212]

Wisconsin lost this afternoon to Illinois who was missing Ayo. Wisconsin is now 10-8 with 2 games left, both on the road at Purdue and at Iowa. We must beat Nebraska on Monday to get within a half game of them. It would be much better if we could get to 11-9 and possibly get a 6th place finish. It is possible if we take one game at a time.

 

[fluoxetine]

FYI teams that start a series 1-1 win the third game exactly 50% of the time.