If you believe in a team being "due"... (I don't, but I did the math)

[kcg88]

By my count, Rutgers under Steve Pikiell has faced a team rated in the top 20 at KenPom 26 times. (Ranking based on the day the game occurred, not the team's end-of-season ranking). Rutgers is 4-22 in these games. 0-11 on the road, 4-8 at home, and 0-3 at MSG. The wins are:

Seton Hall (December 2017)
Seton Hall (December 2019)
Maryland (March 2020)
Illinois (December 2020)

They're 0-10 against teams rated in the top 6 (they've not faced a team rated 7th, 8th, or 9th). There have been a few close calls (Corey Sanders missed game-winner at MSU, two close ones with Purdue in 2018, Iowa earlier this season) but this is one mark they've yet to hit. Gary Waters could never nail the top-5 upset, and Fred Hill, well, he couldn't beat anybody, but Mike Rice toppled Florida when they were #6 and Eddie Jordan beat Wisconsin when the Badgers were #4 in KenPom. (Both of those were at home, of course)

Rutgers' average win probability (also from KenPom) entering the 26 games against top-20 teams is 22%, which is exactly what their number is tonight at Michigan. A 22% shot in 26 games translates to 5.72 expected wins. So Rutgers is running slightly behind in the upset department. Against top 6 teams, Rutgers' average win probability is 14.2%, or 1.42 expected wins out of ten games. Pikiell is (shuffles papers) 1.42 wins short of that. Teams being "due" isn't really a thing, but it's gonna happen eventually for Pikiell. Why not tonight?

 

[RU82]

I like the way you think. Nice job!

 

[fluoxetine]

Fred Hill actually beat Georgetown when they were ranked #7.

 

[goru7]

By my count, Rutgers under Steve Pikiell has faced a team rated in the top 20 at KenPom 26 times. (Ranking based on the day the game occurred, not the team's end-of-season ranking). Rutgers is 4-22 in these games. 0-11 on the road, 4-8 at home, and 0-3 at MSG. The wins are:

Seton Hall (December 2017)
Seton Hall (December 2019)
Maryland (March 2020)
Illinois (December 2020)

They're 0-10 against teams rated in the top 6 (they've not faced a team rated 7th, 8th, or 9th). There have been a few close calls (Corey Sanders missed game-winner at MSU, two close ones with Purdue in 2018, Iowa earlier this season) but this is one mark they've yet to hit. Gary Waters could never nail the top-5 upset, and Fred Hill, well, he couldn't beat anybody, but Mike Rice toppled Florida when they were #6 and Eddie Jordan beat Wisconsin when the Badgers were #4 in KenPom. (Both of those were at home, of course)

Rutgers' average win probability (also from KenPom) entering the 26 games against top-20 teams is 22%, which is exactly what their number is tonight at Michigan. A 22% shot in 26 games translates to 5.72 expected wins. So Rutgers is running slightly behind in the upset department. Against top 6 teams, Rutgers' average win probability is 14.2%, or 1.42 expected wins out of ten games. Pikiell is (shuffles papers) 1.42 wins short of that. Teams being "due" isn't really a thing, but it's gonna happen eventually for Pikiell. Why not tonight?

Interesting stuff but Rutgers has been terrible and really a bad road team for most of those 30 years. Pike’s teams starting from 3 seasons ago have been competitive unlike others. Last year’s teams might fall behind but have this wonderful trait of coming back down double digits and unfortunately losing by a possession or 2 , a play here or there , except for Purdue where they broke thru. We have a more experienced team with 3 road wins , I realize against Maryland, Indiana,and Northwestern, not the top dogs , but we are as healthy as we have been all year and well rested. Plus we should are due to have a 40 minute performance ( although MSU) might have already been that show.

 

[JMORC2003]

I believe in being due, particularly hitters in baseball and college b-ball where a hot start and good defense can swing a fast 2 half/40 minute game. Go RU

 

[Night Man]

Fred Hill actually beat Georgetown when they were ranked #7.

In Kenpom?

 

[fluoxetine]

In Kenpom?

Nah the AP ranking. I don’t have kenpom history but I assume their kenpom ranking was also good

 

[RUsojo]

Not surprising